WTI Oil prices are falling because tensions with Iran are easing and US Crude inventories unexpectedly increased. Additionally, Venezuelan Oil exports are boosting supply in the market. WTI US Oil is currently priced around $59.20 per barrel, down 1.60% today. President Trump’s remarks about Iran have lowered geopolitical risks, reducing fears of supply issues in the Middle East.

US Crude Stockpiles Rise

US Crude stockpiles grew by 3.391 million barrels for the week ending January 14, which was against market predictions that expected a decrease. This rise in inventories, following last week’s drop, raises alarm about potential oversupply. Venezuela has also restarted its Oil exports, adding to the overall market supply. Traders are closely watching events in Iran, as renewed tensions could affect WTI prices. WTI Oil is a quality Crude from the US. Its price is influenced by supply and demand, geopolitical events, and OPEC decisions. The value of the US Dollar and inventory data also play significant roles, with EIA data being highly reliable. OPEC, made up of 12 countries, sets production limits that impact WTI prices. What this group, or OPEC+, does affects the global Oil market. Currently, WTI prices hover around $78 per barrel, a notable change from the same time last year. In January 2025, prices were struggling below $60 as geopolitical risks around Iran seemed to lessen. The present climate is much more favorable for higher prices, which our trading approach should reflect.

Current Market Dynamics

In 2025, there were signs of reduced violence in Iran, but today’s market is focused on different issues. Recent satellite images from January 12, 2026, show a significant increase of naval forces near the Strait of Hormuz, reintroducing a risk premium. This development reverses earlier easing, making traders concerned about potential supply disruptions. The latest supply data tells a different story than in 2025. We remember last January’s unexpected inventory rise of 3.4 million barrels, which pressured the market. This week, however, the EIA reported a surprising decrease of 4.1 million barrels, contradicting expectations of a slight increase, indicating stronger than expected demand. Additionally, the extra supply from Venezuela that began in early 2025 has hit a standstill. New reports from Caracas show production has dropped by over 150,000 barrels per day due to ongoing infrastructure issues. This reduces available barrels and tightens the global market, unlike a year ago. Given these changing circumstances, the trading strategies from last year, which favored selling calls to limit gains around the $60 level, are no longer suitable. We recommend traders consider buying call options to take advantage of potential price increases or using bull call spreads to manage risk in a more volatile market. The focus has shifted from managing oversupply to preparing for further price changes. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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