WTI oil prices are hovering around $57.00, mainly due to worries about oversupply from OPEC+ countries. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that OPEC+ might increase production, potentially leading to a surplus in the market. President Donald Trump stated that India’s Prime Minister promised to stop buying Russian oil, warning of tariffs otherwise. However, sources in India indicate that no cuts will happen immediately, although future import data might change starting in December.

Indian Imports of Russian Oil

According to data from Kpler, India’s imports of Russian oil are set to increase by 20% in October, reaching 1.9 million barrels per day. This rise is partly due to more Russian exports following drone attacks on refineries. WTI oil, or West Texas Intermediate, is a key type of crude oil known for its low gravity and sulfur content. Its price is affected by supply and demand, geopolitical issues, and the value of the US dollar. Oil inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) also play a role in price changes. Lower inventories often indicate higher demand. OPEC, and OPEC+ when including non-OPEC members like Russia, affects prices by setting production limits. Lower production limits usually lead to higher prices, while increased production can reduce them.

Market Reactions and Strategies

With WTI crude struggling to stay above $57.00, the market is reacting to worries about oversupply. The IEA’s recent report confirmed these fears, predicting a bigger market surplus than expected. This suggests that prices may trend down in the near future. The latest data from the EIA now estimates a global supply surplus of 0.8 million barrels per day for the last quarter of 2025. This increase in surplus forecasts puts downward pressure on prices. We should pay close attention to the upcoming weekly inventory reports from the API and EIA for confirmation of this trend. Geopolitical factors are also impacting the market. Despite US threats regarding India’s Russian oil purchases, recent tracking data shows that imports of Russian crude are increasing toward 1.9 million barrels per day. This indicates that global supply remains strong despite political tensions. We’ve seen similar patterns before, particularly from 2022 to 2024, when sanctioned oil still reached the market, softening the effects of geopolitical events on supply. For traders, this environment makes buying put options an interesting strategy to profit from a potential drop below the $57 support level. Selling out-of-the-money call options could also be a good choice, allowing traders to collect premiums while betting against a significant price increase. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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