WTI prices remain stable at about $59.00 per barrel as cautious trading continues with Russia-Ukraine peace talks making progress. Traders are looking forward to a virtual OPEC+ meeting, where they expect the continuation of the output pause plan until 2026. Proposals from the US President may help reach future agreements with Russia, which could ease sanctions and improve supply access. However, doubts about achieving a quick deal persist, and any increase in shipments will take time.

Oil Prices and Fed Rate Cut Expectations

This week, Ukrainian and US representatives will work on a peace framework. Oil prices are also buoyed by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with an 87% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) reduction, as shown by the CME FedWatch Tool. WTI Oil is a high-quality crude sourced from the US, serving as a market benchmark. Its price is influenced by supply and demand, global growth, political unrest, the value of the US Dollar, and decisions made by OPEC. Weekly reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration significantly affect WTI prices. A drop in inventory indicates rising demand, while a boost in inventory suggests increasing supply. OPEC determines production quotas that influence WTI prices; lower quotas usually lead to higher prices, while increased production tends to push prices down. OPEC+ includes additional non-OPEC countries, like Russia.

Geopolitical and Economic Influences on Oil

As of November 28, 2025, WTI crude oil sits around $59 a barrel, influenced by significant geopolitical and economic factors. This creates a tense environment where prices may fluctuate sharply with new developments. Traders should brace for volatility as the market balances potential increased supply and stronger demand. The ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine could pose a risk to prices in the coming weeks. A successful deal might bring sanctioned Russian oil back to the market, boosting global supply. We recall how the market responded during the Iran nuclear deal negotiations in the mid-2010s, where prices fell simply due to the anticipation of future supply, even before oil actually reached the market. Conversely, the strong expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December serves as support for oil prices. With October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing inflation cooling to 2.8%, there’s now an 87% chance of a rate cut, which may weaken the US dollar and stimulate the economy. This could boost fuel demand as we head into 2026. However, recent data creates uncertainty, making directional predictions challenging. For example, the latest report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed a surprise increase in inventories of 1.2 million barrels, suggesting that demand may not be as strong as anticipated. All eyes will be on the virtual OPEC+ meeting this Sunday for any shifts in their output strategy. Given these mixed signals, traders might look into strategies that profit from volatility instead of a specific market direction. Options strategies like straddles or strangles could effectively capture significant price movements, whether up due to a dovish Fed surprise or down due to positive news from peace talks. Implied volatility is expected to rise as we approach these key events. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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