WTI slid on Monday to about $79.15, a 4.53% drop, and touched its lowest level since 10 March as markets pared back the geopolitical risk premium tied to US-Iran tensions. The move followed indications that Washington and Tehran are nearing an agreement intended to support the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing worries over disruption to global energy supply chains.
The proposed framework centres on a phased restart of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor that carries nearly 20% of global oil flows, alongside measures aimed at ensuring safe passage and access to Iran’s frozen funds. Timelines remain uncertain, with reporting citing expectations that a return to pre-crisis export levels could take weeks or months, while infrastructure damage across the Middle East may still constrain supply in the near term. WTI remains a key US benchmark for light, sweet crude, while broader pricing is shaped by supply-demand balances, OPEC and OPEC+ policy, the US Dollar, and weekly inventory data from API and EIA; the two series tend to fall within 1% of each other 75% of the time.
Geopolitical Risk Premium Fades and Trading Strategy Implications
With WTI crude oil falling sharply to around $79, we see the geopolitical risk premium linked to the Strait of Hormuz quickly disappearing from the market. Our immediate focus should be on strategies that benefit from a continued price decline or stabilization at these lower levels. The path of least resistance appears to be downward as the market prices in a more secure supply route.
The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has likely fallen from its recent highs above 40, reflecting the reduced uncertainty. We should consider selling volatility, as the confirmation of the deal later this week could crush implied volatility further. This makes option-selling strategies like short strangles or credit spreads potentially profitable in the coming days.
However, we must remain cautious as the deal is not yet signed and its implementation could take months. The upcoming weekly inventory reports from the EIA and API are now critical to watch for signs of underlying physical demand. A significant draw in crude stocks could provide a floor for prices and challenge the current bearish momentum.
OPEC+, Supply Prospects, and Market Outlook
This development also aligns with the broader market picture following the recent OPEC+ meeting, where members agreed to start unwinding some production cuts later this year. This prospect of more supply coming online in the medium term reinforces our view that any price rallies are likely to be limited. A look at the Baker Hughes rig count, which showed a slight decrease last week to 485, indicates US production is not yet aggressively ramping up, but this could change if prices stabilize.
We have seen this pattern before, where the unwinding of geopolitical fear leads to a rapid price drop, as it did after the initial price shock in 2022. The market often overreacts to the initial news, and will soon shift its focus back to fundamental supply and demand figures. Therefore, we should be prepared for the narrative to quickly pivot back to global growth and inventory levels once the ink on this US-Iran deal is dry.
