WTI fell on Wednesday to about $65.45, down nearly 1.25%, after US data and OPEC+ supply signals added to fears of oversupply. US Energy Information Administration data showed crude oil inventories rose by 15.989 million barrels last week. This followed a 9.014 million barrel draw the week before and was the biggest weekly build since February 2023.

Markets Brace For Iran Talks

Markets are also positioning ahead of US-Iran nuclear talks due in Geneva on Thursday. If talks fail, the risk of US military action could rise, as American forces build up in the region. Any escalation could disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz and push WTI higher. US President Donald Trump said in a State of the Union address on Tuesday that he prefers diplomacy on Iran. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday that Tehran is ready to take steps to reach an agreement with the US. Reuters reported on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia is raising oil output and exports as a precaution, in case a possible US strike on Iran disrupts regional supply.

Opec Plus Supply Signals Shift

Separately, OPEC+ delegates expect small supply increases to return at the group’s March 1 meeting. Reuters cited three sources saying the alliance may consider raising output by about 137,000 barrels per day in April. We remember early 2025 clearly. The market was pulled in two directions. A nearly 16 million barrel jump in US stockpiles pointed to oversupply and pushed prices down toward $65. At the same time, the threat of a breakdown in US-Iran nuclear talks raised the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which helped support prices. Looking back from today, February 26, 2026, the bearish supply data eventually outweighed the geopolitical fears from that period. The situation now is very different. WTI is trading much higher, near $78 per barrel, mainly because OPEC+ is enforcing production cuts, not signaling increases. Tighter supply has created a more stable price base than a year ago. The US inventory picture is also easier to manage now than it was during the 2025 shock. Last week’s EIA report showed a modest build of 3.7 million barrels, far smaller than the jump that rattled traders back then. This suggests that while US output remains strong, global demand is absorbing supply more effectively. The main lesson from last year is how to balance hard data against sudden geopolitical headlines. With uncertainty still high around global economic growth, traders may want to use options to limit risk. Strategies such as collars—buying a protective put and selling a call—can cap both losses and gains in this kind of market. Geopolitical risks have also shifted since early 2025. Today, traders are watching ongoing shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, which have added a steady risk premium to oil for months. This is different from last year, when a possible diplomatic breakthrough offered hope for lower risk and more supply. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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