Silver failed to build on a small bounce in Asian trade on Monday, after rising towards $69.60. It then traded lower for a fifth day, sitting just below the mid-$67.00s and down 0.80% on the day, near a six-week low reached last Thursday. Last week it broke and closed below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since April 2025. The MACD (12, 26, 9) stayed in negative territory, with the MACD line below its signal line. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was 32, just above oversold levels. Support was placed at $67.50, then $65.00, with a break below $67.50 pointing to the mid-$60s. Resistance was seen at $72.80–$73.80, where the 100-day SMA meets prior breakdown levels. A close above $73.80 was cited as needed to shift the bearish setup, while $80.00 was listed as the next resistance. The report said the technical analysis was produced with the help of an AI tool. We are seeing silver struggle to find any real strength, hovering near a multi-week low around the mid-$67.00s. The break below the 100-day Simple Moving Average last week, the first such move since we saw it back in April 2025, confirms a bearish shift for us. This suggests that the path of least resistance is now firmly to the downside. This technical weakness is supported by fundamentals, as recent reports point to a slight downward revision in industrial demand forecasts for the second quarter of 2026. Furthermore, the U.S. Dollar Index has shown persistent strength, climbing to a year-to-date high of 105.80 last week, which creates headwinds for dollar-denominated assets like silver. Historically, a strong dollar and softening industrial outlook have preceded periods of weakness for the white metal. For those of us using options, this setup favors buying put options or establishing bear put spreads. We see the $67.50 level as a critical line; a sustained break could trigger further selling toward strike prices near $65.00 in the coming weeks. Any small price rallies should be viewed as opportunities to enter these positions at better prices. We remember a similar technical pattern back in late 2023 when a prolonged period above the 100-day moving average was followed by a sharp break, leading to a 10% decline over the next month. Given this precedent, any attempt by silver to recover toward the $72.80–$73.80 resistance zone will likely be met with significant selling pressure. We would consider selling call spreads above this area to capitalize on what we expect to be a capped upside. Adding to our conviction, recent data shows consistent outflows from major silver-backed ETFs over the past two weeks, totaling over 15 million ounces. This movement indicates that larger institutional investors are reducing their exposure, which aligns with the bearish technical signals we are seeing on the charts. This reinforces the view that recoveries will likely be short-lived.

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