Gold prices in India rose on Friday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at INR 14,176.77 per gram, up from INR 13,956.23 on Thursday. The price per tola increased to INR 165,356.80 from INR 162,782.80 a day earlier. Other listed prices were INR 141,768.90 for 10 grams and INR 440,947.10 per troy ounce.

India Gold Price Snapshot

FXStreet derives India’s gold prices by converting international prices using USD/INR and local units. The figures are updated daily at the time of publication and are for reference, as local rates may vary. Central banks are the largest holders of gold. They added 1,136 tonnes valued at about $70 billion in 2022, according to the World Gold Council, the highest annual total on record. Gold often moves opposite to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and can also move against risk assets. Its price may react to geopolitical stress, recession fears, interest rates, and shifts in the US Dollar because gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). We are observing a notable rise in gold prices, which are now standing at 14,176.77 INR per gram. This reflects a persistent demand for the metal as a hedge against stubborn inflation that has remained above central bank targets. The coming weeks will test whether this momentum can be sustained against other economic pressures.

Key Drivers To Watch

The primary headwind for gold is the strong US Dollar, which has been buoyed by the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on further interest rate cuts. After the series of hikes that ended back in 2024, the market is now pricing in a slower pace of easing, creating resistance for dollar-denominated assets like gold. We believe any sign of a more dovish Fed policy could trigger a significant upward move. A major supportive factor remains the relentless purchasing by central banks, a trend we have watched since the record buying in 2022. Looking back, we saw this pattern continue through 2025, when central banks collectively added over 1,050 tonnes to their reserves, according to World Gold Council data. This consistent demand, particularly from emerging economies, creates a solid floor under the market price. Geopolitical instability and a jittery stock market are adding to gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. With equity markets pulling back from their highs of late 2025, we are seeing investors increase allocations to gold to diversify their portfolios. Derivative traders should consider using options to position for sudden volatility spikes tied to international news events. This creates a conflicted environment for gold, pitting a strong dollar against robust physical and safe-haven demand. We expect this tension to define trading in the near term, likely keeping gold within a defined range. Traders should watch for a decisive break driven either by a shift in Fed language or a significant escalation in global risk. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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AUD/JPY traded near 112.20 in early European dealings on Friday. The Australian Dollar rose against the Japanese Yen after the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% at its March meeting, following a 25 bps rise in February. The Reserve Bank of Australia said prices were still too high and referred to risks from higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict. The conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran entered its third week, and comments from Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi included a pledge of “ZERO restraint” if energy infrastructure was hit again.

Daily Chart Signals

On the daily chart, the pair stayed above the rising 100-day exponential moving average near 106.60. The Relative Strength Index was 57.00, after previously moving above 70. The Bollinger Band middle line near 111.58 was described as a pivot level. Support was listed at 111.58, then 111.00, with lower band support near 109.52. Resistance was placed near the upper Bollinger Band peak at 113.65, followed by 114.00. The technical section noted it was produced with the help of an AI tool. Looking back a year, we saw the AUD/JPY cross trading strongly around 112.20 in March 2025, driven by a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA was raising rates to combat inflation sparked by energy costs from the Middle East conflict at the time. Today, the situation has evolved, with the RBA’s hiking cycle having peaked. Currently, the Australian cash rate is on hold at 4.35%, and while inflation remains a concern at 3.8% as of the last quarterly report, the market is now pricing in potential rate cuts later this year. This shift away from the aggressive tightening we saw in 2025 suggests limited upside for the Australian dollar on interest rate policy alone. Derivative traders might consider buying put options to hedge against or speculate on a weakening AUD if upcoming data confirms a cooling economy.

Yen Policy Shift

The bigger story is the Japanese Yen, which has a much stronger footing now than it did in early 2025. The Bank of Japan finally abandoned its negative interest rate policy late last year, and recent strong wage growth figures are fueling speculation of further policy normalization. This fundamental shift reduces the appeal of the AUD/JPY carry trade that was so profitable before. The policy divergence that previously pushed the pair higher is now clearly narrowing. The high volatility we saw in 2025 due to geopolitical events has subsided, but the changing central bank dynamics introduce a new source of potential price swings. This suggests that strategies profiting from a downward trend, such as bear put spreads, could be appropriate for the coming weeks. From a technical standpoint, the levels from last year are now distant memories, with the pair trading well below the 111.58 support level mentioned back then. We are currently seeing significant resistance near the 100-day moving average around 109.20. As long as the pair fails to break convincingly above this level, it favors establishing bearish positions or selling call spreads on any rallies. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold prices in Malaysia rose on Friday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at MYR 598.19 per gram, up from MYR 588.90 on Thursday. Gold increased to MYR 6,977.20 per tola from MYR 6,868.79 a day earlier. Other prices listed were MYR 5,981.94 for 10 grams and MYR 18,605.90 per troy ounce.

How FXStreet Calculates Local Gold Prices

FXStreet calculates Malaysia’s gold prices by converting international prices using the USD/MYR exchange rate and local units. Prices are updated daily at the time of publication and are for reference, as local rates may differ slightly. Gold is used as a store of value and a medium of exchange, and is also used in jewellery. It is often used as a safe-haven asset and as a hedge against inflation and currency weakness. Central banks are the largest holders of gold. They added 1,136 tonnes worth around $70 billion in 2022, according to the World Gold Council, the highest annual purchase since records began. Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and can also move opposite to risk assets. Prices may also change with geopolitical events, recession fears, interest rates, and US Dollar strength because gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD).

Gold Market Outlook And Trading Considerations

We see the current rise in gold’s price as more than a daily move; it reflects a strengthening fundamental picture for the metal. This momentum is supported by persistent central bank buying and growing expectations of monetary easing in the second half of the year. This environment makes non-yielding, safe-haven assets increasingly attractive for portfolio diversification. Central banks have continued the aggressive purchasing trend that we saw accelerate back in 2022. Net purchases remained historically high through 2024 and 2025, with the World Gold Council noting that emerging markets were particularly active in bolstering their reserves. Data for the first quarter of 2026 confirms this trend is intact, providing a strong and consistent source of demand for physical gold. Gold’s inverse correlation with the US Dollar is a critical factor for traders to watch in the coming weeks. As the Federal Reserve continues to signal a dovish pivot to support a slowing economy, the dollar has softened, providing a direct tailwind for gold. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is also leading investors to increase their allocation to assets that are considered stores of value. Given this bullish backdrop, we believe traders should consider strategies that benefit from upward price movement and potential volatility. Looking at long-dated call options on gold futures or major gold ETFs could be a prudent way to gain exposure to this trend. This approach allows traders to capitalize on a potential rally while clearly defining their maximum risk. We remember how gold performed during the brief equity market sell-off in mid-2025. While risk assets struggled with recession fears, gold held its value, reaffirming its role as a crucial hedge during turbulent times. That recent history serves as a reminder of why holding a position in the precious metal is important when economic indicators become mixed. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US dollar against six major currencies, traded near 99.40 during Asian hours on Friday. It edged higher after the US Federal Reserve kept a hawkish stance while holding policy steady. The Fed left interest rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% after its two-day meeting on Wednesday. Its Summary of Economic Projections showed a median expectation of one rate cut in 2026.

Fed Policy Outlook

Fed Chair Jerome Powell referred to uncertainty linked to an oil shock. He also said inflation progress has been less than hoped. Military tension in the Middle East has supported demand for safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar. The US-Israeli war with Iran has entered its third week with no clear end. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran would show “ZERO restraint” if its energy infrastructure were hit again, according to Bloomberg. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said Saudi restraint is not “unlimited” and that it could take military action. We see the Federal Reserve is holding firm on interest rates, signaling just one potential cut for the rest of 2026. This hawkish stance is providing strong support for the US Dollar. Derivative traders should consider this a key signal for continued dollar strength in the near term.

Trading Implications

The ongoing war in the Middle East has already pushed WTI crude oil prices above $115 a barrel, a jump of over 35% in just the last month. We saw a similar flight to safety in the dollar back in early 2025 when initial border skirmishes began. This pattern suggests that options strategies betting on continued high oil prices and a stronger dollar could be profitable. This oil shock is feeding directly into inflation fears, which the Fed Chair highlighted. The latest CPI data for February showed inflation reaccelerating to 3.8%, making it very difficult for the central bank to consider cutting rates. Traders could use interest rate futures to hedge against this “higher for longer” scenario. We are seeing market volatility climb, with the VIX index consistently trading above 28 for the past two weeks. This elevated uncertainty creates opportunities for traders using options. Strategies like long straddles on major currency pairs like EUR/USD could perform well, profiting from sharp movements in either direction. This situation is not happening in a vacuum; the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are hinting at more accommodative policies to support their economies. This policy divergence is another powerful driver for a stronger US Dollar Index. We could see traders increasingly favor selling EUR/USD or buying USD/JPY futures to capitalize on this widening gap. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/JPY rose 0.4% to about 158.33 in Asia on Friday after a sharp drop on Thursday. The Yen weakened even as the Bank of Japan kept a hawkish policy outlook. The BoJ left interest rates unchanged at 0.75%. Governor Kazuo Ueda said a hike is possible if a Middle East conflict-linked downturn proves short-lived.

BoJ Stays Hawkish Amid Growth Uncertainty

BoJ officials cited uncertainty over growth as energy prices rise after a joint US and Israel assault on Iran. The US Dollar firmed, with the Dollar Index (DXY) up 0.2% to about 99.35. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold, and the CME FedWatch tool shows the Fed is unlikely to cut rates this year. USD/JPY held a mild bullish bias after rebounding from the rising 20-day EMA near 157.50. The 14-day RSI moved into the 40.00–60.00 range from 60.00–80.00. Support levels are 157.50, then 156.46 and 155.35, while resistance is 159.00, then 159.90 and 160.50. The BoJ targets inflation of around 2% and began ultra-loose policy in 2013 using QQE, then negative rates and 10-year yield control in 2016. It lifted rates in March 2024, after years in which policy gaps weakened the Yen, with inflation pushed above 2% by a weaker Yen, higher energy costs, and rising wage prospects.

Mid 2025 Set The Stage

Looking back at the analysis from mid-2025, we can see the foundation for the current market was being built. At that time, the USD/JPY was trading around 158.33, with traders watching the 157.50 level as key support. The policy divergence was clear, as the Federal Reserve was expected to hold rates high while the Bank of Japan was only hinting at future hikes. Today, the situation has evolved, with USD/JPY pushing towards 161.20. The Bank of Japan followed through on its hawkish signals, raising its key interest rate to 1.00% in December 2025 as inflation proved persistent. Japan’s latest core inflation reading of 2.8% remains well above the BoJ’s 2% target, suggesting their tightening cycle may not be over. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s stance is softening compared to last year. While the Fed held rates steady through 2025, recent US inflation data, which saw the Consumer Price Index cool to 3.1%, has prompted officials to signal potential rate cuts in the second half of 2026. This narrowing policy gap between the US and Japan introduces significant two-way risk. This tension makes outright directional bets risky, and we are seeing this reflected in the options market. Implied volatility on one-month USD/JPY options has climbed to 11.5%, a notable increase from the average of 8.9% we saw in the last quarter of 2025. This environment suggests that buying volatility through strategies like long straddles or strangles could be advantageous, profiting from a large price move in either direction. For those who retain a slight bullish bias but are wary of a sharp reversal, consider using risk reversals. By purchasing an out-of-the-money call option and simultaneously selling an out-of-the-money put option, traders can position for further upside at a reduced or even zero cost. This strategy allows participation if the uptrend continues but offers limited protection if the pair reverses course suddenly. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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EUR/USD pulled back from the weekly high of 1.1616 set on Thursday and was about 0.2% lower near 1.1560 in Friday’s Asian session. The move followed a US Dollar rebound after a sharp sell-off. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was up 0.2% near 99.35. On Thursday it fell over 1% to about 99.00 after major central banks warned about upside inflation risks and pointed to an extended pause as energy prices rose amid Middle East conflict.

Dollar Rebound Pressures Euro

The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, citing uncertainty for prices and the economy linked to joint US and Israeli military action against Iran. Christine Lagarde said a rise in energy prices would push inflation above 2% in the near term. Reuters reported the ECB could discuss raising key borrowing rates in April and could act in June if energy prices stay elevated. The report supported a sharp rise in the Euro. The ECB aims to keep inflation around 2% and mainly uses interest rates to do so. It sets policy at eight meetings each year. In extreme cases it can use Quantitative Easing, used in 2009-11, 2015, and during the covid pandemic. Quantitative tightening ends bond buying and reinvestments, and is generally supportive for the Euro.

Market Focus Shifts To Policy Divergence

We remember the uncertainty late last year when the EUR/USD pair was correcting from its highs around 1.1600. The market was reacting to events in the Middle East and trying to price in central bank responses to rising energy costs. That setup from late 2025 is now the primary driver of our current trading environment. President Lagarde’s warning in 2025 about energy prices proved correct, as inflation has remained sticky. The latest Eurostat flash estimate for February 2026 showed headline inflation unexpectedly ticking up to 2.8%, well above the ECB’s target. This has fueled the hawkish sentiment that was only a rumor back then, with markets now pricing in a 75% chance of a rate hike by the June meeting. In contrast, the US Federal Reserve is facing a different picture. Inflation in the US has cooled more consistently, with the latest CPI figure for February 2026 coming in at 3.1%, continuing its gradual downward trend. This growing policy divergence, where the ECB is being forced to consider tightening while the Fed can remain patient, is creating a strong tailwind for the Euro. This divergence is causing a notable increase in expected price swings. Implied volatility on one-month EUR/USD options has climbed to 7.8%, up significantly from the 5.9% average we saw in the fourth quarter of 2025. Traders should therefore look at strategies that profit from this rising volatility, such as long straddles, ahead of the next ECB press conference in April. We are now watching the 1.1850 level, a key resistance point last tested in late 2024. A decisive break above this psychological barrier, likely driven by hawkish commentary from ECB officials, could trigger a rapid move higher. This makes buying out-of-the-money call options an increasingly attractive strategy for capturing potential upside over the next few weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Silver (XAG/USD) traded around $74 in Asia on Friday after rebounding on Thursday from the February low near $64.00. The move followed a US Dollar sell-off as fears of policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and other central banks eased. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell over 1% to near 99.00 on Thursday, then edged up to about 99.35. The Dollar had risen on Wednesday after Jerome Powell said rate cuts were unlikely unless inflation returns towards the Fed’s 2% target.

Central Banks Signal Policy Caution

Statements from the Bank of Japan, Bank of England, and European Central Bank pointed to reluctance to loosen policy while inflation expectations risk de-anchoring amid higher oil prices. Tighter or prolonged restrictive policy is generally a headwind for non-yielding assets such as silver. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, involving the US, Israel, and Iran, were associated with support for safe-haven assets. Silver was described as having limited downside under such conditions. On charts, price remained below the 20-day EMA near $81.30, with bearish bias and RSI below 40.00 for the first time in 11 months. Resistance sits at $76.50, then $81.00 and $84.00, while support is near $70 and Thursday’s low of $65.51. Looking back to this time in 2025, we saw silver struggling around the $74 mark with a grim outlook. The primary concern then was the Federal Reserve’s firm stance against interest rate cuts, which kept a lid on non-yielding assets. This created persistent selling pressure that kept the metal below key moving averages. The situation today is markedly different, with silver trading above $85 an ounce. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which hovered near 99.00 in early 2025, has since declined to around 95.50 following the widely anticipated Fed rate cuts that began in the fourth quarter of last year. This dollar weakness has provided a significant tailwind for the white metal.

Industrial Demand Drives Silver Higher

A major factor supporting this rally is the acceleration in industrial demand, particularly from the green energy sector. Global solar panel installations, a key consumer of silver, grew by nearly 40% in 2025, reaching a record 550 gigawatts, and forecasts for 2026 show this trend continuing. This robust industrial consumption provides a strong fundamental floor for prices that was less certain last year. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided some safe-haven support in 2025, persistent conflicts have now made this a structural part of the market’s risk premium. This ongoing instability continues to attract investors to tangible assets like silver. This contrasts with last year when the primary driver was short-term flight-to-safety trades. The technical picture from 2025, which showed price trapped below its 20-day exponential moving average near $81, has now completely inverted. That same moving average now serves as a dynamic support level, with the Relative Strength Index holding firmly above 60, signaling strong buying momentum. The bearish sentiment of last year has clearly been washed out. For derivative traders, this environment suggests selling out-of-the-money puts to take advantage of higher implied volatility and the strong technical support. This strategy allows for collecting premium while defining risk, banking on the idea that the price will remain above key support levels like $81. It is a direct reversal of the bearish outlook we held in 2025. Alternatively, for those expecting the rally to extend toward the psychological $90 level, call debit spreads offer a cost-effective bullish position. This defined-risk strategy allows participation in further upside while capping the initial expense. It is a prudent way to play the ongoing bullish trend without the unlimited risk of buying futures contracts. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Canadian Dollar traded slightly higher against major peers in Asia on Friday. USD/CAD eased to about 1.3735 after a fall on Thursday, and stayed near a more than two-week high of 1.3748. Lower oil prices weighed on the Canadian Dollar, as Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States. WTI fell back to around $92.50 after failing to move above $100.

Geopolitical Risk And Energy Markets

Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to repeat attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. Trump also said he did not know Tel Aviv would attack the South Pars gas field, the world’s largest gas field. Oil prices also fell as European nations and Japan showed readiness to help unblock energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. This added to downward pressure on crude. The Canadian Dollar was volatile after the Bank of Canada decision on Wednesday. The BoC kept interest rates unchanged at 2.25%. Markets are watching Canada’s January Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT on Friday. Sales are forecast to rise 1.5% month-on-month after a 0.4% fall in December. The US Dollar edged up after a sharp drop on Thursday. The US Dollar Index was up 0.2% to about 99.35, after falling over 1% to around 99.00.

Rates Volatility And The Cad Outlook

The US Dollar weakened after policy updates from the BoJ, BoE, and ECB. They provided hawkish guidance on rates, reducing fears of a gap with the Federal Reserve. Looking back at the situation in March 2025, we saw the Canadian dollar’s value tightly linked to a falling oil price. The Bank of Canada was holding interest rates steady at 2.25%, creating significant volatility around its policy announcements. This environment made short-term derivatives on the USD/CAD pair particularly sensitive to geopolitical news affecting energy markets. Today, the pressure from oil prices on the Canadian dollar remains, but the context has shifted. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is now trading closer to $78 a barrel, a significant drop from the $92.50 levels seen last year, as OPEC+ has slightly increased production quotas to meet recovering global demand. This persistently lower price environment continues to act as a headwind for the loonie, suggesting that bearish positions on the currency may still have merit. The interest rate differential has also changed significantly from the scenario in 2025. The Bank of Canada has since begun an easing cycle, with the policy rate currently at 1.75%, while the US Federal Reserve has been more hesitant to cut. This widening gap between US and Canadian rates puts further downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair, a fundamental factor that was not as pronounced last year. Volatility in the energy sector continues to be a major factor for traders. The Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) is hovering around 35, indicating that unexpected price swings are still a significant risk. Traders should consider using options to define their risk, perhaps by purchasing puts on the Canadian dollar to speculate on further weakness while capping potential losses. In the coming weeks, we will be watching the upcoming Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data very closely. The last report showed inflation cooling to 2.4%, slightly below expectations, which reinforces the market’s belief that the Bank of Canada may cut rates again before the summer. Any inflation number below consensus will likely weaken the Canadian dollar further. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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NZD/USD rose to about 0.5880 in Asian trade on Friday, moving above 0.5850. The pair gained after New Zealand reported a smaller trade deficit than forecast, while traders also watched the ongoing Middle East conflict. Statistics New Zealand showed a trade deficit of NZ$257 million in February, down from NZ$627 million in January. Markets had expected a shortfall of NZ$470 million.

New Zealand Data And Near Term Limits

New Zealand GDP growth was softer than expected, which may limit further gains in the pair. The economy grew 0.2% QoQ in Q4 versus 0.9% in Q3 (revised from 1.1%), below the 0.4% forecast. On an annual basis, Q4 GDP rose 1.3% YoY versus 1.1% in Q3 (revised from 1.3%), but below the 1.7% forecast. In the US, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% on Wednesday and projected a 0.25 percentage point rate cut by year-end. Looking back at this time last year, in March 2025, we saw the NZD react to a narrower trade deficit while weak GDP data capped the gains. Today, with the NZD/USD trading around 0.6150, the primary driver has shifted firmly to the divergence between central bank policies. The fundamental picture we observed in 2025 was the beginning of the economic slowdown that has since defined New Zealand’s performance. That weaker GDP growth seen in late 2025 persisted into this year, yet inflation has remained stubbornly high. The most recent data for the first quarter of 2026 showed New Zealand’s CPI at a higher-than-expected 4.2%, putting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under pressure to maintain its restrictive stance. This stagflationary environment creates uncertainty, which is perfect for options traders. On the other side, the US Federal Reserve did proceed with the single rate cut signaled in 2025, but progress on inflation has stalled since then. The latest US CPI figure for February 2026 came in at 3.4%, which is well above the Fed’s target and has prompted a more hawkish tone from policymakers. This has poured cold water on expectations for further cuts in the near term.

Options Volatility And Trade Positioning

This growing policy divergence is increasing implied volatility in NZD/USD options. We see an opportunity in buying straddles ahead of the next RBNZ and Fed meetings, which would profit from a significant price move in either direction. The market appears to be underpricing the risk of a policy surprise from either central bank. The interest rate differential still favors holding the Kiwi, which has supported the pair over the last six months. Traders using futures to play the carry trade should be cautious, as any hint of a dovish pivot from the RBNZ could cause a rapid unwinding of these positions. We recommend using tight stop-losses on any long NZD futures contracts. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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AUD/USD traded lower near 0.7080 in Asian trading on Friday. The Australian Dollar weakened after Australia’s unemployment rate rose in February. Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed the unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in February from 4.1% in January. The result was above the market forecast of 4.1%.

Australian Labor Data Weakens The Aussie

The weaker labour data reduced expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia rate rises. Money markets cut the probability of a May 2026 rate hike to 57% from 61%. China’s central bank kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Friday. The one-year Loan Prime Rate stayed at 3.00% and the five-year rate held at 3.50%. The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged after its March meeting. The target range remained 3.50% to 3.75%. The Fed’s median dot plot still pointed to one 25-basis-point cut later in 2026. Some officials projected no cuts this year.

Fed Policy And Energy Shock Support The Dollar

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the war in Iran has created an “energy shock” and increased uncertainty. He said this makes future policy decisions harder. With the Australian unemployment rate unexpectedly climbing to 4.3%, we see a clear signal of a softening local economy. This makes the Reserve Bank of Australia less likely to pursue the interest rate hike that markets were pricing in for May. This divergence between expectations and reality creates an opportunity against the Aussie dollar. This economic weakness is reflected elsewhere, with the latest Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index for March falling to 79.5, its third straight monthly decline. Looking back at 2025, we saw how the RBA stayed on the sidelines for months waiting for clear data, and this jobs report is a significant reason for them to remain cautious. The market is right to reduce the probability of a rate hike, and this sentiment will likely weigh on the AUD in the coming weeks. In contrast, the US Federal Reserve is facing a different problem, which supports a stronger dollar. The latest US CPI data for February showed core inflation holding firm at 3.8% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s target and complicating their plan for a rate cut. The Fed’s signal that some officials now expect no cuts at all in 2026 is a hawkish turn that we must take seriously. The energy shock from the ongoing conflict in Iran is pouring fuel on this inflationary fire, with WTI crude oil prices now trading consistently above $105 a barrel. This situation forces the Fed’s hand, making them less likely to cut rates while high energy costs act as a tax on global growth. This environment typically favors the US dollar as a safe haven and hurts commodity-linked currencies like the AUD. Given this setup, derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from a falling AUD/USD. We believe buying AUD/USD put options with expirations in the next four to six weeks offers a direct way to position for further downside. Alternatively, a put spread could be used to lower the upfront cost while defining the risk and potential reward. This feels similar to the market jitters we experienced in late 2025 when an initial energy price spike caused a sharp, albeit brief, flight to quality. Volatility in the currency markets has picked up, with the Cboe FX Volatility Index (FXVIX) climbing 15% in the last month alone. This suggests that option premiums are rising, making defined-risk strategies even more prudent. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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