New Zealand’s exports rose to $6.63b in February, up from $6.21b in the previous period. We see the rise in February exports to $6.63 billion as a clear positive for the New Zealand dollar, suggesting underlying strength in the economy. This export growth is supported by recent Global Dairy Trade auctions, where prices have increased over 3% this month, largely due to renewed demand. This trend points to a healthier trade balance than many had anticipated.

New Zealand Dollar Outlook

This robust trade data will likely reinforce the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s firm stance on interest rates. With the last reported quarterly inflation figure still at 3.8%, well above the target band, the central bank has little incentive to consider easing its policy. This keeps the Official Cash Rate, currently at 5.5%, a supportive factor for the currency in the weeks ahead. Given this outlook, we should consider strategies that benefit from a rising NZD/USD exchange rate. Buying near-term call options on the Kiwi dollar could be an effective way to capture potential upside, especially as the currency tests resistance around the 0.6280 level. The increased economic activity reduces the immediate downside risk that has been priced in recently. We remember that throughout much of 2025, any strength in the Kiwi was held back by concerns over a global slowdown and its impact on commodity prices. The economic landscape then was one of caution, with many expecting rate cuts by this point. This new data suggests a significant shift from the weaker export performance we saw in the latter half of last year.

Market Strategy Considerations

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EUR/USD rose more than 1.16% after the ECB kept rates unchanged, while a leak suggested policymakers may discuss rate rises as soon as April. The pair traded around 1.1582 after rebounding from near 1.1440. The ECB left the deposit facility rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%. It said the Middle East war will have a material impact on near-term inflation through higher energy prices, with medium-term effects depending on the conflict and energy pass-through.

Central Banks And Market Reaction

In the US, the Fed kept rates steady and the US Dollar index fell more than 1% to 99.21. Initial Jobless Claims fell from 213K to 205K versus a 215K forecast, while New Home Sales fell -17.6% MoM in January after -1.7% in December. US Treasury yields retreated after an earlier spike, and Prime Market Terminal data put no Fed rate cuts through 2026. Upcoming Eurozone data include the current account, trade balance, and Germany’s PPI, while the US calendar is empty. Technically, EUR/USD was near 1.1585 with RSI at 45.65. Levels cited include resistance at 1.1636, 1.1730, 1.1820 and 1.1900, and support at 1.1567, 1.1512 and 1.1417. Looking back to March of 2025, we saw the EUR/USD pair spike on whispers of an ECB rate hike, a move that briefly took the rate above 1.15. That excitement was driven by fears of energy-related inflation stemming from conflict in the Middle East. Today, the situation has dramatically changed, with the fundamental driver now being the wide interest rate differential between the US and Europe. The European Central Bank did follow through with hikes in 2025 but has since paused, holding its deposit facility rate at 2.75% for the last two quarters. In contrast, the US Federal Reserve remains firm at 5.50%, creating a significant yield advantage for holding US dollars. This wide gap continues to put underlying pressure on the euro, making last year’s highs seem very distant.

Rates Inflation And Volatility

The inflation picture that worried officials last year has also cooled considerably, removing the urgency for further ECB action. February 2026 data showed Eurozone headline inflation at 2.4%, well down from the peaks of 2025, while US core PCE remains stickier around 2.8%. Brent crude, which spiked during the 2025 conflict, has stabilized and now trades in a range near $88 a barrel, easing pressure on Europe’s energy import costs. Given this stability, we see that implied volatility in the euro has fallen, with the CBOE EuroCurrency Volatility Index (EVZ) hovering near a low of 5.8. This suggests that option premiums are relatively cheap, creating opportunities to position for a potential breakout from the current tight trading range. Traders should consider buying straddles or strangles if they anticipate a future catalyst reintroducing volatility, while the interest rate differential favors strategies that are short the euro. The technical landscape is now entirely different from what it was in 2025. The key resistance level from last year near 1.1730 is no longer relevant, as we are now trading around 1.0750. The immediate focus should be on the 1.0850 level as resistance, with critical support located at the year-to-date low near 1.0600. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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NZD/USD rose 1.30% on Thursday to about 0.5870 as the US Dollar weakened in broad trading. The move came despite weak New Zealand data and a Federal Reserve hold decision. Statistics New Zealand reported GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, below the 0.4% forecast and down from 0.9% in the prior quarter. Year-on-year growth was 1.3%, below the 1.7% forecast but up from 1.1%.

March 2025 Price Action Review

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates, citing inflation risks linked to energy prices. US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 205K in the week ending 14 March. This was below expectations of 215K and the previous 213K. On the 4-hour chart, the pair traded at 0.5873 above the 20-period SMA near 0.5840, but below the falling 100-period SMA around 0.5902. The RSI rose to 58 after rebounding from below 40. Support levels are 0.5872, 0.5830 and 0.5798, while resistance is at 0.5892 and around 0.5902. The technical analysis section was produced with help from an AI tool.

March 2026 Market Backdrop

We are looking back at the price action from this time in March 2025, where the NZD/USD pair rallied despite weak New Zealand GDP data. The move was a clear reminder that broad US Dollar sentiment can overpower local fundamentals. We saw the pair push higher even as the Federal Reserve signaled it was in no rush to cut rates. Fast forward to today, March 20, 2026, the situation has evolved, yet the lesson remains critical. Recent data shows New Zealand’s quarterly CPI has held firmer than expected at 3.1%, keeping the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on alert. Meanwhile, the Fed’s latest dot plot this week signaled a willingness to begin easing, a notable shift from the hawkish stance we observed last year. Given what we saw in 2025, we should be wary of assuming a straightforward rally in the kiwi, even with a more supportive fundamental backdrop. Last year’s surprise USD weakness shows that positioning can be a powerful driver. Therefore, we should consider strategies that offer upside exposure while clearly defining our risk in case sentiment shifts unexpectedly again. A prudent move for the coming weeks would be to look at call options on the NZD/USD. This allows us to participate in a potential move higher, driven by interest rate differentials, without risking significant capital if the broad market turns against the kiwi. Buying the 0.6200 strike calls for April could capture a break above the recent consolidation around the current 0.6150 level. Technically, the pair is currently finding support near the 50-day moving average around 0.6120. A key resistance level to watch is the 0.6190 area, which has capped rallies twice in the last month. A decisive break above this level would signal strengthening momentum, validating the use of long-option strategies. The main takeaway from last year’s price action is that the broader US dollar trend can abruptly change course. We should protect any bullish positions with protective put options or tight stop-losses below the 0.6100 psychological level. This ensures we are not caught on the wrong side of a sudden reversal, similar to the one that surprised traders in March 2025. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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US stock indices rose by about 50 basis points on Thursday afternoon after comments attributed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu circulated, saying the war with Iran would end a “lot faster than people think”. By 3:00PM EST, the S&P 500 was down 0.8%, then moved to a 0.3% loss in the final hour of trading.

Markets React To Headlines

Oil futures were up 3% earlier in the session, then fell by over 2% and were trading at $94.28 at the time of writing. We remember seeing last year how a single statement about the war ending “faster than people think” could whipsaw the market. The S&P 500 instantly erased half its losses and oil futures tumbled, teaching us a valuable lesson about headline risk. This kind of volatility is driven by algorithms reacting to keywords in seconds. That pattern is crucial to consider right now, with tensions simmering again in the Strait of Hormuz. With the S&P 500 hovering just under 5,500 and WTI crude holding firm at $88 a barrel, the market is coiled tight. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently at 18, reflecting this anxiety but not yet outright panic. This environment suggests buying optionality is prudent. We believe traders should consider purchasing out-of-the-money puts on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) for downside protection that is relatively cheap. Conversely, call options on assets that benefit from de-escalation could offer explosive upside if we get a repeat of last year’s sudden reversal. Looking at the energy sector, the sharp drop in oil from over $96 to below $95 in an hour during that 2025 event shows how quickly the geopolitical premium can evaporate. We see an opportunity in buying put spreads on crude oil futures, which provides a defined-risk way to profit from a sudden peace dividend. This strategy is cheaper than buying puts outright and benefits from a sharp, fast move lower.

Positioning For Short Gamma

These rapid, headline-driven reversals create what is known as a short-gamma environment, where dealers are forced to sell into a falling market and buy into a rising one, exaggerating the move. Being positioned with long options allows traders to benefit from this acceleration without being exposed to unlimited risk. We must be prepared for sharp swings based on single news alerts rather than fundamental shifts. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Netflix is a subscription streaming service with hundreds of millions of paid memberships in more than 190 countries. The shares rose over 30% from February lows, then fell nearly 4% and moved below a technical level. The price dropped under the 50% midline of a rising parallel channel at $100.26. The share price is also testing the 27 February low wick at $90.58, which is being used as a near-term reference point. A daily close below $90.58 would point to further downside risk. The next levels discussed are $87.60, then $84.63, and then $75.01, which matches the February lows. On the upside, the price would need to close back above $100.26. After that, another level sits near $104.54, linked to a declining trendline from the July 2025 highs. The immediate focus is whether the share price holds above $90.58 by the close. The levels listed above are presented as the next markers if the price moves lower, while $100.26 remains the key level to regain. As we recall, this time in 2025 saw significant debate as the stock broke below the critical $100 channel midline, testing traders’ resolve. The key question then was whether the drop below the $90.58 wick low was a temporary dip or the start of a serious downturn. That period of uncertainty proved to be a crucial test for the stock’s underlying strength. That pullback toward the mid-$80s last year ultimately marked a significant buying opportunity before the stock began its impressive climb. Now, with the company’s latest earnings report from January 2026 showing subscriber numbers have surged past 280 million, the fundamental picture is far stronger. The successful global expansion of the ad-supported tier has clearly silenced many of the concerns we had back in early 2025. For traders today, this history lesson highlights the value of using dips to establish bullish positions in a strong name. With the stock now trading around $615, selling cash-secured puts or bull put spreads on any pullbacks toward the 50-day moving average offers a way to collect premium. This strategy capitalizes on the expectation that strong underlying support will hold, just as it eventually did when the stock consolidated above $84 last year. We should also consider that implied volatility, while lower than during the uncertainty of 2025, still presents opportunities for premium sellers. Given the stock’s powerful trend, any minor sell-offs are likely to be met with buying pressure, making short-duration options strategies attractive. Remember how bounces were viewed as selling opportunities back then; now, dips are being treated as buying opportunities until the trend shows signs of breaking. The key technical levels have obviously shifted, but the principle remains the same. Instead of watching the $100.26 midline from last year, we are now focused on major psychological and technical support near the $590 level. A decisive break below this area on high volume would be the new warning sign, much like the break of $90.58 was the immediate tell for traders in 2025.

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The Trade Desk (TTD) is a programmatic advertising technology platform used to buy digital ad space across the open internet. Its share price peaked near $56 in October 2025 and then moved into a steady downtrend. A descending trendline from the October 2025 high has acted as resistance on repeated rallies. That trendline now meets the current price area around $23–$24. Support has formed at $21.10, where the price stabilised in early February. From there, it rose towards $32–$33 before falling back again. A key point is whether the price can deliver a confirmed daily close above the descending trendline. If that happens, the next area to watch is $28–$30. If the price fails to close above the trendline, attention returns to the $21.10 support level. The support has already been tested once, and another test would raise the chance of a break. While the trendline remains intact, the downtrend continues. We remember watching that downtrend from the October 2025 highs, which pinned the price down around $23. That key support at $21.10 was tested, and as we feared, it eventually gave way under pressure. The sellers clearly won that battle, breaking the stock down to a new low near $18 last month. The breakdown was confirmed following the Q4 earnings release in February, which showed revenue growth slowing to just 18% year-over-year, missing the street’s expectations. This is being tied to recent government reports showing a 0.5% contraction in retail sales, signaling a broader pullback in advertising budgets. The stock is now attempting to stabilize around the $20 mark, well below its old support. For traders who believe this weakness will continue, buying puts with strike prices around $18 or $17 offers a clear way to play further downside toward the recent lows. Selling out-of-the-money call spreads, like the April $22/$24 spread, is another option to collect premium while betting that the old $21.10 support level now acts as firm resistance. This strategy benefits from both a drop in price and the passage of time. If we believe the selling is exhausted and a new range is forming between $18 and $21, selling cash-secured puts below the recent low, perhaps at the $17.50 strike, could be a way to generate income. This approach expresses a view that the stock will not make new lows in the coming weeks. A more aggressive bullish play would involve buying call debit spreads to define risk, targeting a potential rebound toward that broken $21.10 level.

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DocuSign (DOCU) is trading flat today. After reporting earnings after the bell on Tuesday, the stock opened about 3% below its pre-earnings price. During the next session, the share price moved higher through the day. It finished that session in positive territory. On the daily chart, the stock is trading in an upward sloping parallel channel. This type of channel is often treated as a bearish pattern, with price rising inside a fixed range. One approach is to wait for a confirmed break below the lower edge of the channel. A second approach is to watch for a pullback towards the lower boundary and use that area for a short entry. DocuSign is a digital agreement platform for electronic signing, sending, and managing documents. It is used by individuals and businesses for remote-friendly workflows. DocuSign’s recent strength after its earnings dip is deceptive. While buyers stepped in to push the stock positive, we are focused on the bigger picture. The stock is grinding higher within an upward sloping channel, which is typically a bearish formation. For derivative traders, the primary strategy is to wait for a confirmed breakdown below the channel’s lower trendline. A decisive break would be the signal to consider buying put options, perhaps with expirations in late April or May 2026. This approach waits for the bearish pattern to be validated before committing capital. A more anticipatory approach involves watching for a retrace back toward the lower boundary of this channel. Traders could use that area to initiate a short position by purchasing puts with a shorter-term expiration. Alternatively, selling out-of-the-money call spreads could be a way to bet against a significant move higher while collecting premium. This technical weakness is echoed by fundamental pressures we’re seeing in the market. Reports from late 2025 highlighted increased competition from AI-native contract platforms, which are starting to erode market share. We also saw Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing a slowdown in business services spending, a key driver for DocuSign’s growth. Looking back from our perspective in 2025, we saw similar bearish channel patterns form in other SaaS stocks right before the sector-wide pullback in late 2023. Currently, options market data supports this cautious view, with the put-to-call ratio for DocuSign hovering around 1.2. This indicates that more bets are being placed on a downward move. Regardless of the chosen strategy, risk management is the most critical element. The post-earnings buying pressure shows there is still support for the stock, so no breakdown is guaranteed. Using defined-risk positions like buying puts or using spreads helps protect capital if the pattern fails to resolve to the downside.

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Argentina’s month-on-month trade balance was $788m in February. This was below the expected $971m. The result was $183m under the forecast. The data point refers to February.

Trade Balance Miss Pressures The Peso

The February trade balance miss signals weaker than expected dollar inflows for Argentina. This puts immediate pressure on the Argentine Peso (ARS), increasing the likelihood of depreciation in the short term. We are now watching for increased volatility in the ARS/USD currency pair. For derivative traders, this suggests positioning for a weaker peso in the coming weeks. We are looking at ARS futures or buying put options as a direct way to capitalize on potential currency declines. Non-deliverable forwards are already pricing in a 2-3% slide over the next 30 days, suggesting this sentiment is building. The lower surplus could stem from a slowdown in agricultural exports, a key economic driver. Early reports on the soy harvest have been mixed, and any further negative news could weigh on the Merval index. We saw a similar dynamic in the fourth quarter of 2025 when weaker corn prices led to a market pullback. This makes buying put options on the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) an attractive hedge or speculative position. Key agricultural stocks like Cresud (CRESY) could also see increased bearish option activity. We will monitor export data for the first half of March closely for confirmation of this trend.

Sovereign Risk And Reserves In Focus

This trade data also impacts sovereign risk perception. A tighter supply of dollars makes servicing foreign debt more challenging, which could cause credit default swap (CDS) spreads to widen. We’ve already seen 5-year CDS spreads tick up by 10 basis points to 1380 bps this morning on the news. However, we must balance this against the central bank’s strong reserve accumulation, which has been the main positive story. The BCRA has added over $2 billion in reserves since the start of the year, providing a significant buffer. A continuation of this trend could easily offset the negative sentiment from one month of weak trade data. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/CHF fell 0.31% to 0.7906 in Thursday’s North American session, despite the Swiss National Bank’s verbal intervention aimed at weakening the Swiss franc. Broad US dollar weakness kept the pair under pressure. On Wednesday, buyers appeared near 0.7830 and pushed the pair higher. On Thursday it reached an eight-week high of 0.7957, briefly moving above the 200-day simple moving average at 0.7951.

Key Technical Inflection Levels

After failing to hold above that level, USD/CHF pulled back towards 0.7900. The Relative Strength Index suggests bullish momentum could return if buyers move the pair back above 0.7950. If the pair drops below the 100-day simple moving average at 0.7897, it may test the 50-day simple moving average at 0.7800. Further downside would bring focus to the 0.7760 low from 6 March. Looking back to this time in 2025, we saw the USD/CHF pair struggle at the 200-day moving average despite the Swiss National Bank’s efforts to weaken its currency. The market was testing trader conviction around the 0.7900 handle. This period of consolidation created uncertainty about the dollar’s strength against the franc. The SNB’s verbal intervention was a prelude to concrete action, as it delivered a surprise 25-basis-point interest rate cut on March 21, 2025. This was the first major central bank to ease policy in that cycle, a move justified by Swiss inflation falling to a low of 1.2% in February 2025. That decision proved to be the catalyst that broke the technical stalemate.

Positioning For Policy Driven Volatility

Following the rate cut, the pair decisively broke above the 0.7957 resistance level and did not look back for several weeks. Implied volatility in USD/CHF options surged over 30% in the days following the announcement. Traders who had positioned for this break using long call options saw significant gains. Today, we should look for signs of a similar setup, with central bank policy divergence being the primary driver. Considering the current quiet trading, purchasing out-of-the-money call options on USD/CHF offers a low-cost way to position for a potential sharp upward move. This strategy limits our downside risk to the premium paid for the options. For those anticipating a slower grind higher, selling cash-secured puts below key technical levels like the 50-day moving average could be a sound strategy. This allows us to collect premium while setting a more favorable entry point if the pair experiences a temporary pullback. The key is to capitalize on low volatility before any central bank surprises. We must remember how the technical picture in 2025 warned of potential weakness if the pair dropped below the 100-day SMA at 0.7897. Any break of a similar long-term average now should be a signal to reduce bullish exposure. We can use put options as a hedge to protect our positions against a sudden reversal. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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