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EURUSD tests the 200-hour moving average after bouncing from support and gaining momentum

The EURUSD currency pair is nearing its 200-hour moving average, which is currently at 1.15776. Earlier, it tested a swing zone between 1.1518 and 1.1529 during the European session. In this range, buyers found support and pushed the pair upwards. For sellers, dropping below the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1558 could indicate a possible reversal. In contrast, if buyers break the 50% retracement level at 1.1610, that would be their next target.

US Bond Yields Impact

The rise of EURUSD is partly due to falling U.S. bond yields. The 10-year yield has dropped slightly by 0.2 basis points, while the 30-year yield has decreased by 1.6 basis points. This decline weakens the USD and boosts the EURUSD pair. Currently, we’re observing EURUSD pushing against its 200-hour moving average at 1.1577. This level is a key battleground for both buyers and sellers after strong support was found around 1.1520. How this situation unfolds could influence market trends for the month. The increase in value is also supported by softening U.S. bond yields. The market expects the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes, especially after the July 2025 jobs report showed slower hiring than expected. We saw similar dollar weakness at the end of 2024 when the Fed hinted that it was nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle.

ECB and Fed Policy Divergence

In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) appears to be pursuing a different strategy. Eurozone inflation was last reported at 3.1%, which is above their target, leading to pressure for a more hawkish approach. This difference in policies between a potentially pausing Fed and a firm ECB is a major factor fueling the Euro’s strength. For traders expecting a rise above 1.1577, buying call options with a strike price near the 1.1610 target can be a simple way to benefit from the upward trend. Options set to expire in late August or September offer ample time for this scenario to develop. This strategy helps define risk while allowing for potential gains if the trend continues. A more cautious approach would be to use a bull call spread. By purchasing a call option and selling another one at a higher strike price, traders can lower the initial position cost. This is particularly effective if the price increases but stalls before breaking out more significantly. Traders should also be on the lookout for a failure at the current moving average. If sellers regain control and push the price below 1.1558, it could suggest that the upward move has lost momentum. In such a case, buying put options or setting up put spreads could allow traders to profit from a potential decline back toward the 1.1520 support level. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Technology sector shows mixed results, healthcare rises, and financials face losses while investors stay cautious.

The technology sector had mixed results today. Oracle’s stock went up by 1.14% because of good earnings, while Microsoft fell by 0.35%. Nvidia dropped by 1.09%, showing difficulties in the semiconductor market. The financial sector also faced declines, with JPMorgan Chase down 1.31% and Bank of America down 1.56%. These drops align with broader economic worries, indicating a negative outlook for bank stocks.

Resilience In Healthcare

On the other hand, the healthcare sector showed strength. Eli Lilly fell slightly by 0.74%, but Pfizer rose by 4.12%, likely due to recent product approvals. This sector looks more promising amidst market ups and downs. Overall, the market highlights caution in financials and positivity in healthcare. The ups and downs in technology reflect the uncertain atmosphere. Investors might want to consider stable sectors like healthcare for better stability. It’s crucial to keep an eye on technology and semiconductors, as they can change quickly with industry news. Having access to real-time data is essential for navigating today’s market. Stay updated with InvestingLive.com for the latest market trends and insights. As of August 5, 2025, the technology sector shows clear opportunities for derivative traders. While Oracle is performing well in enterprise software, semiconductors may have reached a peak after the strong AI-driven growth in 2023-2024. Traders could consider strategies like pairs trades, where they buy call options on strong enterprise stocks and put options on semiconductor ETFs that might keep declining.

Bearish Signals In The Financial Sector

The weakness in the financial sector suggests bearish trends tied to economic challenges. Recent Q2 2025 data indicates that commercial real estate delinquencies are at a decade high of 5.8%. We expect banks to continue feeling pressure. Traders might consider buying put options on financial ETFs like XLF in the coming weeks, as further declines are anticipated. In contrast, healthcare remains strong, with stocks like Pfizer seeing significant gains. Last week’s full FDA approval for its new blockbuster drug provides a solid reason for its rising stock price, which we believe will continue. Buying call options or selling out-of-the-money puts on certain pharmaceutical stocks could be a good way to capitalize on this positive trend. The overall market uncertainty is causing increased volatility, with the VIX index around 20—up from the calmer levels seen earlier in 2025. This setting is advantageous for strategies that benefit from large price movements, regardless of direction. Traders might want to explore buying straddles or strangles on major market indices to take advantage of the expected fluctuations. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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U.S. stocks struggle as disappointing ISM non-manufacturing data impacts market dynamics

U.S. stock indices are experiencing a significant pullback after reaching lows in April and are now at a crucial decision point. The S&P 500 notably rose above its 100-hour moving average today after starting higher, but weaker ISM non-manufacturing data affected its momentum. Previously, the S&P dipped below its 200-hour moving average due to a disappointing jobs report, signaling a bearish trend. While the index managed to recover above this level yesterday, it faced resistance at the 100-hour moving average. Today, the market couldn’t maintain its gains, which further dampened bullish sentiment.

Potential Downside Targets

The 100-hour moving average, currently at 6330.86, has become resistance. If sellers continue to push lower, the next target is the 200-hour moving average at 6270.48. A drop below this level would increase bearish pressure, with further downside targets at the 38.2% retracement of 6242.21, followed by the 50% mark at 6185.13. The S&P index has dropped 33 points, or 0.54%, bringing it to 6295.66. The NASDAQ and Dow have also seen declines of 0.59% (124.86 points) and 0.50% (218 points), respectively. With the S&P 500 unable to stay above its 100-hour moving average at 6330, the market is showing signs of losing short-term momentum. This technical weakness indicates a likely downward trend in the coming days. For derivative traders, this suggests a shift from a bullish to a neutral or bearish approach. The market downturn aligns with economic data pointing to a slowing economy. Today, the ISM Services PMI fell short at 50.2, barely above the contraction threshold and significantly below expectations. This follows last Friday’s disappointing jobs report, which revealed that only 155,000 jobs were added, falling short of the forecasted 200,000. In light of this, traders might consider buying put options with strike prices just below the next major support level at the 200-hour moving average of 6270. Specifically, weekly or monthly puts with a 6250 strike could be a way to profit from a breakthrough of this support level. This strategy would also guard against a sharper drop toward the next target at 6242.

Volatility and Options Strategies

The market’s anxiety is evident in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has risen to 18.5 from the low teens last month. Increased volatility makes options more expensive, so an alternative strategy is to sell out-of-the-money call credit spreads. By selling a spread with a short strike above the 6330 resistance level, traders can collect premiums while betting that this recent high will not be surpassed in the near future. If sellers manage to push the index below the 200-hour MA at 6270, the Fibonacci support level at 6242 will become the next focal point. If this level fails to hold, it would confirm a deeper short-term bearish trend. Traders may then consider rolling existing puts down to lower strike prices to take advantage of additional downside. We observed a similar technical breakdown following weak data during the second quarter of 2024, demonstrating how quickly sentiment can shift. This period led to a sharp 5% correction before dip-buyers entered the market again. This historical context suggests that while the immediate outlook appears weak, conditions may change swiftly. This economic weakness has also influenced Federal Reserve policy considerations. Fed funds futures now indicate a 60% chance of a rate pause at the September FOMC meeting. Any continued signs of economic slowdown could heighten expectations for a rate cut before year-end. This factor could provide support for the market if the current downturn persists. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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US ISM non-manufacturing PMI hits 50.1, falling short of the 51.5 forecast as seven components decline

In July, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was 50.1, lower than the estimated 51.5. The Services PMI decreased from 50.8 in June to 50.1, showing a drop of 0.7. Business Activity fell by 1.6 from June to 52.6. New Orders decreased by 1.0, reaching 50.3, and Employment slipped by 0.8 to 46.4. On a positive note, Supplier Deliveries went up by 0.7 to 51.0.

Prices and Backlog Increase

Prices rose by 2.4, bringing the total to 69.9. The Backlog of Orders increased by 1.9 to 44.3. New Export Orders dropped by 3.2, and Imports experienced a sharper decline of 5.8. Seven out of ten components showed decreases, with Imports and Exports entering contraction. Increased costs from tariffs were noted. Different sectors reported how tariffs affected their planning and expenses. For instance, Accommodation mentioned delays in financial planning, while Agriculture dealt with higher import costs. Construction had to reassess feasibility, leading to some project delays. Educational Services saw lower demand in the summer. Finance remained steady, while Healthcare faced cost challenges affecting project planning. Mining expected reduced activity, and Real Estate thought tariff discussions were exaggerated. Retail reported solid but inconsistent results, and Transportation noted rising prices.

Report Highlights Economic Concerns

The July services data indicates the economy is slowing faster than expected, with a headline figure of 50.1, just above contraction. This signals that economic weaknesses are spreading beyond manufacturing, largely due to ongoing trade disputes. The most concerning aspects of the report are the shrinking employment number at 46.4 and the rise in prices paid to 69.9. This mixture of slowing growth and rising inflation creates a challenging stagflationary situation, putting the Federal Reserve in a tough position ahead of its September meeting. This report aligns with other recent weak data points, such as last week’s Q2 GDP advance estimate, which showed only 1.1% growth. Despite this slowdown, the last CPI report for July showed core inflation remains above 4%. The market now sees less than a 25% chance of a rate hike in September, a significant drop from the previous week. We recall the 2018-2019 period when similar tariff issues led to a global manufacturing slowdown and increased business uncertainty. The Federal Reserve eventually changed its approach to rate hikes and began cutting rates as growth concerns grew. We will be watching Fed officials closely for any hints of a similar shift. The conflicting data may lead to increased market volatility. The VIX index, which measures expected volatility, has been low at around 15, but this report could push it up to the 20-25 range. We think buying VIX calls or futures is a smart way to prepare for the uncertainty this report brings. For stocks, the decline in new orders and employment threatens corporate earnings, particularly for the second half of 2025. We recommend buying protective puts on broad market indices like the S&P 500 (SPY) as a sensible hedge. Cyclical sectors like transportation and industrials are particularly at risk of a downturn. The bond market is likely to react strongly as traders consider recession risks versus inflation. Given the significant drop in the employment component, recession fears seem to be rising. This should lead to higher bond prices, prompting us to consider long positions in Treasury note futures. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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In July, the services PMI rose to 55.7, indicating growth in five sectors, especially technology.

In July 2025, the S&P Global Services PMI showed an increase, with the services index rising to 55.7 from 52.9 in June. The preliminary estimate had been 55.2. The composite index also increased, going up to 55.1 from 52.9 last month, which is close to the preliminary figure of 54.6. The upcoming ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to reach 51.5, up from 50.8 in June. In the US service sector, five out of seven sectors saw more business activity in July, compared to four the previous month. Technology experienced its fastest growth since June 2021, while the financial sector grew at its quickest pace since December 2024.

Sector Growth Overview

Industrials have now expanded for 18 consecutive months, showing the sharpest increase since May 2022. The Consumer Goods and Consumer Services sectors had slight growth, with Consumer Goods being the weakest in its current four-month growth streak. Healthcare saw a small decline, the largest since May 2024. Basic Materials faced a fifth consecutive monthly decline, with the drop rate speeding up from June. The services sector showed strong performance in July, with the final PMI reading of 55.7 significantly higher than last month. This suggests that the overall economy is stable. Given this strength, we believe the Federal Reserve won’t rush to cut interest rates. The main story is the growing divide within the economy. Technology is experiencing its fastest growth since mid-2021, and both financials and industrials are also expanding quickly. Meanwhile, consumer sectors are slowing, and basic materials are struggling more than ever.

Market Volatility and Strategies

This divergence means the overall market volatility should stay low as recession fears diminish. The VIX, which measures market volatility, has dropped below 14 in recent weeks, a level not consistently seen since late 2024. This situation is good for strategies focusing on selling options premium. We should focus on the clear winners. Buying call options on technology ETFs like XLK is a straightforward way to capitalize on this momentum, especially since the sector has risen over 20% since January 2025. The ongoing strength in industrials, now for 18 months, also supports bullish positions in that area. Conversely, we must consider bearish options on weaker sectors. Buying put options on basic materials ETFs like XLB is a wise move since this sector has contracted for five straight months and is down 5% year-to-date. This creates an opportunity to profit from the disparities between strong and weak areas of the economy. With robust data pushing back rate cut expectations, derivatives linked to interest rates are also in play. Fed funds futures now indicate a less than 15% chance of a rate cut by year-end, down significantly from June. This hawkish trend suggests that buying put options on long-duration Treasury bond ETFs could be a smart hedge. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USDCHF struggles to maintain upward momentum after failing to break resistance

The USDCHF recently tried to break above a resistance level but struggled. The pair moved above the 100-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement from May 2025, reaching a high of 0.8117. However, it couldn’t maintain that level, leading sellers to challenge the 0.8102 resistance again. Attention may now turn to possible downward targets. Buyers are watching the swing zone between 0.8062 and 0.8054, supported by the rising 200-hour moving average at 0.8049. If the price drops below this, it could fall toward the range of 0.8017 to 0.8023 and possibly even lower, to 0.7985 to 0.7994. Staying above the 200-hour moving average could indicate a period of consolidation, but the recent rejection suggests weak momentum.

Market Influences And Resistance Levels

Important resistance levels are at 0.8102 and 0.8173. Support is found between 0.8054–0.8062 and 0.8017–0.8023. With the price below 0.8102, sellers seem to be in control, but breaking above it could shift market sentiment. Trade concerns are also affecting the market, as Switzerland is facing a 39% tariff and has a significant trade surplus with the US. Potential US tariff hikes on chips and pharmaceuticals are adding to the uncertainty. The recent attempt by USD/CHF to rise has faltered badly. The inability to maintain the 0.8102 resistance level indicates that sellers are regaining control. This breakdown signals a bearish trend, so we should be careful with long positions for now. With the price now trading below 0.8102, the easiest path seems to be downward. We are closely monitoring the support zone between 0.8062 and 0.8054. Traders may consider buying put options with strike prices near 0.8050 to take advantage of a possible breakdown of this level in the upcoming weeks.

Economic Indicators And Potential Impacts

We are seeing mixed signals from the US economy. The July jobs report, released last week, reported a stronger-than-expected gain of 250,000 jobs, which supports the US dollar. This underlying strength might prevent a steep drop in the pair and could lead to some volatile trading. In Switzerland, recent data showed inflation for July at 1.8%, slightly below predictions. This gives the Swiss National Bank (SNB) room to avoid raising interest rates, especially since they are concerned about the franc getting too strong. The SNB has historically intervened when the franc appreciates, which could limit its gains. The looming threat of a 39% US tariff on Swiss goods is the primary source of uncertainty, impacting key sectors like pharmaceuticals and watchmaking. We’ve seen similar erratic movements in safe-haven currencies during past US-China trade disputes in 2018 and 2019. This history suggests that both USD and CHF may experience unpredictable demand for safety, making directional bets risky. This uncertainty is reflected in the options market, where one-month implied volatility for USD/CHF has risen to 9.5%, up from an average of 6% in the second quarter. Traders anticipate larger price fluctuations ahead. For those already in positions, purchasing protective puts could be a smart way to guard against sudden news related to tariffs. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USDCAD faces a market stalemate due to strong support and resistance, causing trader indecision.

**USDCAD Key Technical Zones** USDCAD is currently between strong support at 1.3762 and resistance at 1.3810. If it breaks above 1.3810, the price could rise to 1.3860. However, if it drops below support, it may fall to 1.3726. Buyers are actively defending the 1.3762/1.3759–1.3749 area, which is connected to the 38.2% retracement level and the rising 200-hour moving average (MA). Meanwhile, sellers are firmly positioned at 1.3810, where the 100-day and 100-hour MAs intersect. Staying below 1.3810 indicates a possible downward trend toward 1.3726 or even 1.36908. On the other hand, breaking above 1.3810 could change the direction toward 1.3860 and 1.3890. Key levels to watch: – **Resistance:** 1.3810, 1.3860 – **Support:** 1.3762, 1.3726 The United States has increased tariffs on Canadian goods outside of the USMCA to 35%, with additional penalties of up to 40% for those evading the tariffs. These tariffs primarily target steel, aluminum, autos, lumber, and industrial goods. Next year, tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals could reach as high as 250%. In response, Canada has imposed 25% tariffs on C$30 billion worth of U.S. goods. While some tariffs have been relaxed, most remain in effect due to ongoing negotiations without resolution. Up to 95% of Canadian exports are protected by the USMCA, but both countries face pressures amid looming tariff threats. **Currency Market Dynamics** As of August 5, 2025, the USDCAD pair is tightly bound between 1.3762 support and 1.3810 resistance. This limited range suggests the market is waiting for a significant trigger before making a decisive move. Traders should focus on preparing for a breakout rather than assuming the range will hold. The main factor driving this tension is the ongoing trade friction between the U.S. and Canada. Despite 95% of Canadian trade being safeguarded under the USMCA, new tariffs on essential goods like steel and lumber are injecting uncertainty into the market. Any developments during negotiations could disrupt current technical levels. Recent data has increased upward pressure on the pair, making a break above 1.3810 seem more likely. Last week’s Canadian Labor Force Survey revealed an unexpected drop in employment, while recent U.S. inflation data remains high, supporting the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position. This economic divergence boosts the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar. Reflecting on the trade tensions of 2018 and 2019, we observed how quickly currency pairs reacted to tariff announcements and negotiation updates. A similar situation is emerging, indicating that headline risk is extremely high. This history suggests any resolution or setback could trigger a sharp trend lasting several days. Given the potential for sudden moves, traders in derivatives should consider strategies that profit from increased volatility. Buying out-of-the-money call options with strike prices above 1.3860 or put options below 1.3726 may provide a cost-effective way to position for a breakout, allowing for large movement participation while limiting initial risk. The main risk to this strategy would be an unforeseen progress in trade discussions, which could quickly reverse momentum and strengthen the Canadian dollar. This could lead USDCAD to break below the 1.3750 support area and target lower levels. Therefore, it’s crucial to time any long volatility strategy carefully, perhaps using options with several weeks before expiration to wait for the right catalyst. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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In June, Canada’s trade balance was -C$5.86 billion, which was better than expected due to changes in exports and imports.

In June, Canada had a trade deficit of C$5.86 billion, a bit better than the expected C$6.3 billion. Exports went up slightly to C$61.74 billion, while imports climbed to C$67.6 billion. Exports to the U.S. grew by 3.1% from May but were still 12.5% lower than last year. Imports from the U.S. increased by 2.6%, breaking a three-month streak of decline, thanks to purchases for an offshore oil project. This widened Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. from C$3.6 billion in May to C$3.9 billion.

Exports And Imports Overview

Exports to countries other than the U.S. dropped by 4.1% from May, marking the first decline since February, but were still 14.7% higher compared to last year. Significant decreases in shipments to the UK and Japan were somewhat offset by increased exports to China. Imports from other countries fell by 0.3%, leading to a larger trade deficit of C$9.8 billion in June. Canada’s total exports in the second quarter decreased by 12.8%, with notable drops in energy products, motor vehicles, and consumer goods. Imports fell by 3.9%, even with a rise in metal and mineral products. The trade balance changed dramatically, swinging to a C$19.0 billion deficit from a small C$388 million deficit in the previous quarter. Looking at June’s trade data, the headline figure was a minor positive surprise, but it was overshadowed by the record C$19.0 billion trade deficit for the entire second quarter. The sharp 12.8% decline in Q2 exports, particularly the 12.5% year-over-year drop in exports to the U.S., points to significant weakness.

Implications For Bank Of Canada And Currency Market

This weak performance in Q2 leaves the Bank of Canada with little room to tighten monetary policy. With July’s inflation at a cooler 2.5%, the central bank is more likely to keep its current approach for now. This economic softness suggests that a cautious path is the most likely for policymakers. We expect the Canadian dollar to face tough challenges in the coming weeks. The currency has already had a rough time, with USD/CAD rising from 1.3500 to around 1.3750 after the extent of Q2 weakness became clear in July 2025. This trend mirrors patterns seen during late 2023, when global slowdown fears were high. Given this outlook, traders should prepare for increased volatility, especially with upcoming data releases like the final Q2 GDP figures. Strategies that benefit from price swings, rather than steady trends, could be advantageous. The significant drops in key sectors like autos and consumer goods indicate a fragile economy. Ongoing trade talks with the U.S. add more uncertainty. Although Canada’s surplus with the U.S. grew slightly in June, the decrease in non-energy exports shows a vulnerability beyond just commodity prices. Any negative news from these negotiations could lead to sharp reactions in currency markets. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The trade balance for June was -60.2 billion, which is better than the expected -61.3 billion.

The US trade balance for June 2025 was -60.2 billion, slightly better than the expected -61.3 billion. The previous month’s figure was revised from -71.5 billion to -71.7 billion. In June, exports were 277.3 billion, down from 279.9 billion the month before. Imports also dropped to 337.5 billion from 350.5 billion.

Market Response

The market didn’t react much to this data. The trade balance has stabilized after a rise in imports due to tariffs before “Liberation Day.” Although the smaller trade deficit for June 2025 looks positive, it mainly comes from a sharp decline in imports. We are buying less from other countries at a faster rate than we are selling. This suggests that demand in the US economy may be slowing down. Other recent data supports this view. Retail sales in July grew by only 0.1%, which was below expectations. Additionally, the ISM Manufacturing index, a key measure of factory performance, fell to 49.8 in July, indicating a slight contraction for the first time in six months.

Economic Implications

We are seeing a return to normal after the surge in imports during the spring. Companies stockpiled goods to prepare for the new “Liberation Day” tariffs, causing a temporary increase in the trade gap. This pattern has occurred before, during the trade disputes of 2018 and 2019. For derivative traders, this cooler economic outlook makes a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September less likely. Recent comments from Fed officials about being “patient” are now more relevant. We’re preparing for higher market volatility, as the VIX index has already risen from its July lows to over 17. In the coming weeks, strategies that benefit from a stable or slightly weaker US dollar may be more effective. With less pressure on the Fed to raise rates, traders might consider buying protective puts on stock indices that are near their highs, as they are sensitive to any signs of an economic slowdown. Interest rate option markets may also see increased activity as the chances of future rate cuts are re-evaluated. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Trump raised concerns about outdated survey data, talked about tariffs, and discussed trade relations with China.

President Trump shared his views on recent survey data, arguing it is outdated and biased. He highlighted changes since he took office, noting that stock prices have risen and energy costs have fallen. Gasoline prices are at $2.40, and OPEC+ is increasing drilling activities. He also mentioned positive developments internationally, with countries like Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Korea opening up to investment. U.S. stocks had a slight uptick, with the NASDAQ up 94 points and the S&P up 17.5 points. Trump talked about tariffs, stating that the EU would face tariffs if investments are not made. A 15% reduction would apply if investments are made. He mentioned a $600 billion agreement with the EU. Stock prices dipped slightly during his discussion about tariffs. He plans tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals, with pharma tariffs possibly increasing to 150-250% within a year. Trump downplayed worries about oil prices but pointed out that inflation has peaked under the Biden administration. Tariffs on Russian oil for India were set to increase, as current tariffs are seen as excessive.

Upcoming Sino-American Trade Talks

Trump mentioned that Xi Jinping wants to meet. He described a positive relationship with China and acknowledged their dependence on the U.S. A potential trade deal with China is close to completion, with a meeting scheduled by the end of the year. Traders should closely watch Federal Reserve policy as a new chair announcement is expected soon. The uncertainty surrounding a new leader is causing short-term market volatility, a trend we’ve seen during past Fed changes. Options traders should be cautious about sudden shifts in bond futures and interest-rate-sensitive stocks until more clarity emerges. The energy sector shows potential, but there are risks. The national average for gasoline has dropped to around $2.45 a gallon, down from $3.20 earlier this year. This decrease follows a recent OPEC+ report indicating a modest production increase of 500,000 barrels per day, which may help keep prices low. Ongoing uncertainty in European trade calls for a careful approach. Conflicting messages about a major investment deal and new tariffs suggest volatility in European stocks and the EUR/USD currency pair. Recent German factory orders showed a surprising 1.2% decline last month, indicating frailty in the region’s largest economy.

Disruptions in the Semiconductor Industry

Traders should prepare for instability in the semiconductor industry. The announcement of new tariffs on chips is likely to disrupt supply chains and impact valuations for major tech companies in the NASDAQ 100. With the U.S. importing over $60 billion in semiconductors last year, mostly from Asia, these tariffs could lead to significant price changes in the SOXX semiconductor ETF. The pharmaceutical sector now faces a serious threat. A plan to impose a small tariff that rises sharply within a year could harm companies in the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV). The U.S. imported over $190 billion in pharmaceutical products in 2024, making these proposed tariffs a considerable challenge for the sector. While the talk of an imminent trade deal with China is encouraging, we should expect market fluctuations. We recall the market volatility during the 2018-2019 trade discussions, where rumors and tweets could cause major index shifts in a single day. With bilateral trade exceeding $550 billion last year, traders should consider using options to guard against unexpected breakdowns in talks or sharp rallies from a successful deal. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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