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Intel shares increase by over 7% after news of potential US government investment
Intel’s shares increased by over 7% on Thursday. This rise followed a Bloomberg report indicating that the US government might invest in the company.
The possible investment aims to help build Intel’s chip complex in Ohio. This project, announced in 2022 with an initial $20 billion investment, could eventually total $100 billion.
The project has faced delays as Intel works on turning its business around. Intel did not comment on Bloomberg’s report.
The news about a potential government stake has already led to a big jump in the stock price today. We are seeing a rise in implied volatility for Intel options in the coming weeks, making both puts and calls pricier. This reflects the market’s anticipation of various outcomes if the investment happens.
For those expecting more good news, buying call options is a direct way to bet on stock price increases. However, because of the current high volatility, using vertical call spreads might help lower upfront costs and protect against a price drop if the report turns out to be untrue. A similar situation happened in 2023 when early news about CHIPS Act grants led to volatility spikes that later settled down.
It’s important to remember that this equity stake is not confirmed yet, and the Ohio project has seen delays since its 2022 announcement. Traders who think the 7% jump is an overreaction might consider selling call credit spreads, betting that the stock won’t rise much in the short term. This strategy benefits from a stable stock price and a potential drop in implied volatility if no official announcement comes.
This news is significant because the Commerce Department’s rollout of CHIPS Act grants has been slower than expected, with only about $40 billion of the original $52.7 billion awarded as of last month. With competitors like NVIDIA rising over 60% this year due to AI demand, a direct government investment could be a major boost for Intel’s recovery. Therefore, any official updates in the coming weeks may lead to another sharp price movement, making longer-dated options worth considering.
Standard Chartered expects Ethereum to reach $25,000 driven by increased corporate treasury demand and institutional interest.
Standard Chartered has raised its Ethereum price predictions. Now, they expect the price to be US$7,500 by the end of 2025, up from US$4,000, and US$25,000 by 2028, which is an increase from US$7,500. This change comes from stronger industry conditions and increasing demand from corporate treasuries. There’s also growing interest in staking, decentralized finance (DeFi), and infrastructure projects.
In March, the bank had lowered its 2025 target due to worries about Layer 2 fee issues and decreasing on-chain activity. However, since June, corporate treasuries have started to buy more Ethereum, possibly accounting for up to 10% of the supply, similar to how Bitcoin was adopted by companies in its early days.
The bank believes that long-term holders and treasury managers will significantly affect Ethereum’s price. Factors like locked-up supply, staking yields, and Ethereum’s roles as both a settlement layer and a foundation for Layer 2 solutions are expected to boost demand. Despite some risks from regulations, competing platforms, and ongoing protocol changes, the bank’s new forecast shows increased confidence in Ethereum’s medium- to long-term future.
The updated prediction of $7,500 for the end of 2025 suggests a renewed, strong positive outlook for Ethereum. This optimistic view is likely to influence short-term market behavior, making strategies that bet on price increases more appealing. Derivative traders might consider buying call options or starting long futures contracts for September and October expiries to position for potential gains.
Support for this optimism comes from on-chain data indicating that institutional interest is rising, which counters earlier concerns. The open interest in ETH futures on the CME has jumped by 20% in the last month, reaching a new high of $12 billion. This shows that substantial funds are betting on a price increase before the year ends.
Concerns about declining on-chain activity from earlier this year are fading, as daily active addresses have consistently risen above 800,000. Recent data shows that over 35% of the total ETH supply is now locked in staking, leading to tighter availability on exchanges. This reduced liquidity could cause price increases if buying pressure rises.
We can expect implied volatility in the options market to rise after such a significant forecast change. This makes selling out-of-the-money puts an attractive strategy for gaining premium since it benefits from rising prices and time decay. It reflects a moderately bullish outlook while taking advantage of heightened market expectations.
This situation is reminiscent of Bitcoin’s performance in late 2020 when news of corporate treasury adoption led to a substantial multi-month rally. The current predictions of corporate ETH accumulation follow a similar pattern, adding credibility to the forecast. Traders should see this moment as a potential entry point prior to a broader market price adjustment.
For those managing risk, bull call spreads are a good option for gaining long exposure with limited maximum loss. This strategy allows participation in a possible rally while protecting against sudden downward shifts. It’s a more cautious way to position for the upward movement expected in the coming weeks.
Food price index in New Zealand increases by 0.7% monthly after a prior rise of 1.2%
In July 2025, New Zealand’s Food Price Index (FPI) went up by 0.7% from the previous month, a decrease from June’s rise of 1.2%. Over the year, the FPI increased by 5.0%.
The FPI shows the average price changes of food items across New Zealand and is released monthly by Statistics New Zealand. It represents a typical selection of food products that households usually buy.
Recent Economic Indicators
A recent report highlighted a manufacturing PMI of 52.8 for July, a rise from 48.8 earlier. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may lower the cash rate to 3% as inflation cools and unemployment reaches a four-year high. These indicators are important for understanding inflation trends since food prices are a major part of household spending. Examining these trends aids in making monetary policy decisions, like changing interest rates. With the New Zealand Food Price Index showing a slower monthly increase of 0.7%, we have more proof that inflation is decreasing from its peak. However, the annual rate of 5.0% is still well above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target of 1-3%. This situation complicates their upcoming decisions. Market expectations strongly favor a cut in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 3.25% to 3.0% soon. This speculation is driven by cooling inflation and a rising unemployment rate of 5.2%, the highest in four years. This expectation is reflected in short-term interest rate swap pricing.Interest Rate and Currency Market Strategy
The recent jump in the manufacturing PMI to 52.8 adds complexity, suggesting economic growth. This robust data might give the central bank a reason to pause and keep rates steady, creating uncertainty that benefits options traders. For those involved in interest rate derivatives, employing a volatility strategy like a straddle on bond futures could be effective. This strategy would take advantage of significant market movements, whether the RBNZ cuts rates or surprises the market by holding them steady. As the central bank’s announcement approaches, the cost of options is likely to increase. In the currency market, options on the New Zealand dollar are gaining interest. To hedge against a potential rate cut, buying NZD/USD put options could be wise. These options would increase in value if the Kiwi weakens. Conversely, a surprise decision to hold rates steady could boost the currency, making call options a good choice. Historically, the RBNZ was among the first central banks to increase rates aggressively in 2022-2023, showing they can act decisively when needed. If they cut rates while other major banks, like the US Federal Reserve, stay put, this would widen the interest rate gap, likely putting more downward pressure on the currency in the medium term. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 in July, signaling a return to expansion.
New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI for July is 52.8, a bounce from June’s 48.8. The average PMI is 52.5, showing a positive turn toward growth after tough months.
June’s PMI was adjusted to 49.2, signaling slow improvement. Challenges remain, including low demand, shrinking orders, high costs, inflation, tariffs, slow construction, and weak consumer spending.
RBNZ Expected to Cut Cash Rate
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to lower the cash rate to 3% as inflation eases and unemployment hits a four-year high. Although the economy faces difficulties, the rise in PMI is a hopeful sign. The recent jump to 52.8 in the manufacturing PMI may offer a temporary boost to the New Zealand dollar, suggesting a potential recovery. This return to growth invites traders to reconsider the severity of the economic downturn. However, caution is needed due to ongoing issues like weak demand and increasing costs. This positive data point stands in contrast to the broader trend of an economy struggling for months. Such uncertainty can lead to increased market volatility, making trading options more appealing. Recent official data supports this view. The Q2 2025 CPI showed inflation cooling, now at 3.2%, down from the highs of 2023. Meanwhile, the latest labor report indicates unemployment has risen to 4.4%, its highest since 2021.The Market’s Focus on RBNZ’s Next Steps
The market is closely watching the RBNZ’s next decision. A rate cut to 3.0% is highly probable at the September meeting, as the bank aims to tackle rising unemployment and slowing growth. Typically, a rate cut puts pressure on a currency, making any gains from the PMI report likely short-lived. Given these mixed signals, it’s wiser to focus on trading volatility rather than picking a specific direction. Strategies such as buying NZD/USD straddles could work well, as they benefit from significant price movements either way. This approach allows traders to take advantage of the uncertainty surrounding the RBNZ’s upcoming decision. For those with existing positions, hedging is crucial. If you are short on NZD, the strong PMI figure could indicate a possible short squeeze. Short-dated call options might be a cost-effective way to safeguard against a sudden rally before clearer guidance from the central bank. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Soros Fund Management and Appaloosa increase Nvidia holdings, showing confidence in the company’s future
Soros Fund Management and Appaloosa Management increased their stakes in Nvidia during the second quarter. Soros Fund bought 932,539 shares, which raised its total by over 1,600% to 990,292 shares.
Appaloosa Management added 1.45 million shares, a 483% increase, bringing its total to 1.75 million shares. Both funds also boosted their investments in UnitedHealth Group, a health insurer that has faced challenges. UnitedHealth saw an 8.2% rise in after-hours trading.
Nvidia’s shares dipped 0.2% in after-hours trading on Thursday but are up 35.5% for the year. In contrast, UnitedHealth’s shares are down 46.3% year-to-date, even though they have recently gained back some ground.
Looking at the Q2 2024 filings shows how major funds prepared for the AI boom by heavily investing in Nvidia. Their strong belief from last year continues to hold relevance today. The key is to update that long-term outlook based on current market conditions.
As of today, August 14, 2025, Nvidia has gone up an additional 52% this year, even as volatility has increased recently. This morning’s U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicated a slight rise in inflation, causing uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s next steps. For traders holding Nvidia, this may be a good time to sell covered calls to earn income from the higher premiums while keeping the core investment.
Historically, tech leaders like Nvidia often see sharp, short-term pullbacks, even in a strong uptrend. An example is the 15% correction in spring 2024. Given the current economic uncertainty, buying protective puts with a one-month expiry could be an economical way to guard against a similar decline. This strategy lets us stay involved with the AI trend that Soros and Appaloosa recognized early on.
The funds’ 2024 investment in the struggling UnitedHealth also offers a valuable lesson. The stock has bounced back over 30% from its lows as last year’s regulatory fears subsided, and medical cost trends stabilized, as confirmed in their Q2 2025 earnings call last month. This suggests that the recovery phase may be nearing its peak.
With UnitedHealth now trading in a more stable range, it makes sense to use collar strategies. This involves buying a protective put and selling a covered call at the same time. This approach protects our downside while limiting potential gains. It allows us to secure the significant profits made since last year while keeping hedging costs low.
Warren Buffett has increased his investments in UnitedHealth, Nucor, and homebuilders, while reducing his stakes in Apple and Bank of America.
Berkshire Hathaway, under Warren Buffett’s leadership, has made new investments in UnitedHealth, Nucor, Lennar, and DR Horton, while reducing its stakes in Apple and Bank of America. Following Berkshire’s US$1.6 billion purchase, UnitedHealth’s shares increased, even though the company has faced a tough year, with its stock price dropping about 50%, a DOJ investigation, and a CEO resignation.
The investment in Nucor caused its shares to rise nearly 8%. Similarly, Berkshire’s increased stake in Lennar and its new investment in DR Horton both led to a 3% uptick in their stock prices. Berkshire also picked up smaller investments in Lamar Advertising and Allegion. Meanwhile, it has continued to cut back on its holdings in Apple and Bank of America.
Berkshire’s overall portfolio is roughly valued at US$300 billion. The SEC had previously mentioned undisclosed holdings, which included DR Horton, Nucor, and Lennar. Warren Buffett plans to step down as CEO at the end of 2025, with Greg Abel set to take over. After these announcements, shares of UnitedHealth, Nucor, Lennar, and DR Horton rose, with UnitedHealth gaining extra interest as it trades at a P/E ratio just below 12.
With this news, we are thinking about how to position ourselves for the upcoming weeks. The investment in UnitedHealth (UNH) is a strong indicator, showcasing a bold counter-market move. Since the stock has already dropped around 50% in 2025, we believe this suggests that the worst may be already reflected in its price.
For derivatives traders, selling puts on UNH with strike prices well below the current market level could be a smart approach. This strategy takes advantage of the high implied volatility stemming from the news and aligns with the idea that the stock has hit a bottom. This perspective is supported by a recent report from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services in late July 2025, which indicated that patient enrollment numbers are finally stabilizing after earlier disruptions.
Berkshire’s new investments in homebuilders like Lennar (LEN) and DR Horton (DHI) signal a positive outlook on the housing market. We should think about buying call options with expirations in late 2025 to take advantage of potential gains. This timing seems favorable, as data from the National Association of Realtors for July 2025 showed a surprising 1.5% increase in new home sales, breaking a six-month downtrend.
The new investment in steelmaker Nucor (NUE) suggests a bet on domestic infrastructure and industrial growth. This move seems to be in response to the latest Industrial Production Index numbers for July 2025, which exceeded expectations. Purchasing call spreads on NUE could be a lower-risk way to capitalize on anticipated strength in this sector.
On the flip side, cutting back on Apple (AAPL) and Bank of America (BAC) might signal caution. With Apple trading close to its all-time highs from late 2024, this move hints at a belief that the stock’s valuation is becoming too high. We should contemplate selling call credit spreads to profit if the stock remains flat or dips slightly.
The immediate outcome of these filings is a spike in implied volatility for all the mentioned stocks. Over the next few weeks, we expect this volatility to gradually decrease as the initial excitement calms. This presents an opportunity for premium sellers who can employ strategies like short strangles on these stocks, betting on a return to more typical trading ranges.
PPI exceeds forecasts, raising inflation concerns, as US stock indices remain stable amid mixed signals
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July showed a surprising increase of 0.9%, well above the expected 0.2%. On a yearly basis, the headline PPI rose by 3.3%, while the core PPI went up to 3.7%.
These results stirred some uncertainty because they were influenced by warehousing and transportation—industries that usually don’t rely heavily on labor. The stock market reacted by reversing earlier declines, ending nearly unchanged with variations of just 0.03%.
Rising US Yields
US yields increased across the board as the odds of a September interest rate cut fell to 94%. Previously, there was a 6% chance for a 50 basis point cut, which has now shifted to a similar likelihood of maintaining current rates. The US dollar gained strength against several currencies, making the most significant strides against the AUD and NZD. It also saw notable increases against the EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, and CAD. St. Louis Fed President mentioned that inflation is above target and noted signs of weakness in the labor market. They expect that the impacts of tariffs might lessen but could still last. Fed President Barkin pointed out improved business sentiment but also remarked on slower hiring. Crude oil futures climbed, gold prices fell, and Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, while the US Treasury Secretary considered options for acquiring more Bitcoin. The unexpected rise in producer price inflation raises doubts about the likelihood of a September rate cut. This signals a need to consider hedging against high interest rates, possibly by looking at options on Treasury futures if the Federal Reserve delays easing.Market Indecision
According to live data from the CME FedWatch tool, the chance of a September rate cut has decreased from a certainty to 94%. This situation echoes the market’s ups and downs in 2023, where traders frequently adjusted their expectations based on each Fed meeting. Derivative traders should be ready for increased volatility as we approach the next Fed decision, possibly using options on the VIX or major indices. The US dollar is significantly strengthening, especially against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, a typical reaction to rising US yields. We see continued dollar strength as a straightforward trade, suggesting call options on dollar-tracking ETFs like UUP. The weakness in commodity currencies hints at growing concerns about global growth. With the stock market recovering from losses to finish the day flat, investors are clearly divided. The tug-of-war between inflation worries and hopes for a soft landing presents opportunities for options strategies that profit if the S&P 500 remains in a specific price range. Meanwhile, holding protective puts on index ETFs like SPY is a wise move in case inflation data triggers a market drop. The upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin is a significant unknown, particularly for energy markets. Today’s rise in crude oil to over $63 a barrel reflects some of this geopolitical tension. We’re considering call options on oil ETFs to speculate on potential supply disruptions from the discussions. Bitcoin’s sudden drop was shocking, but news from the Treasury Secretary about possibly acquiring more Bitcoin shifts the landscape. This hints that any downturn could be temporary and viewed by the government as a chance to accumulate strategically. For us, buying long-dated call options on Bitcoin ETFs seems like an attractive way to position for a possible rebound. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole symposium at 10:00 AM Eastern Time.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak at 10:00 AM US Eastern Time on August 22. This speech is part of the Federal Reserve’s 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, which runs from August 21 to 23. Many attendees and analysts are eager to hear insights from this important event.
Chair Powell’s Tough Choice
During the symposium, Chair Powell faces a tough decision about economic policy. No matter what he decides, market observers may feel disappointed. The Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole meeting next week is highly anticipated, especially Chair Powell’s speech on Friday, August 22. Powell must choose between fighting persistent inflation or addressing a slowing economy. His decision will likely lead to a big market reaction, offering opportunities for traders who are prepared. Recent data highlights this pressure. The July Consumer Price Index was unexpectedly high at 3.4%, which pushes the Fed to stay aggressive. However, the last two jobs reports indicate a cooling labor market, suggesting a more cautious approach may be needed.Options Strategies and Market Effects
This uncertainty before a major event means we should expect an increase in implied volatility in the coming days. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently low at around 15, meaning options aren’t fully accounting for possible big market moves. This creates a chance to buy volatility before it becomes more expensive as we near the speech. A good way to bet on this uncertain outcome is to use options strategies that benefit from significant price changes, whether up or down. Traders can look at straddles or strangles on major indices like SPX or QQQ, which involve buying both a call and a put option. This approach is effective when you expect a large price swing but aren’t sure which direction it will take. We can learn from past events. Looking back at the August 2022 Jackson Hole speech, Chair Powell’s unexpectedly short and hawkish comments caused the S&P 500 to drop over 3% in one day. This shows that these speeches can quickly change market expectations. It’s wise to set up these positions early next week and be ready to act quickly after the speech. Once Powell speaks, the uncertainty in options will fade fast, causing implied volatility to drop sharply. Therefore, the strategy is to capture the price movement from the speech and then close the position. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Anticipation builds for a 25 basis point cash rate cut to 3% by New Zealand’s central bank.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to cut its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3% in its policy meeting on August 20, as reported in a Reuters poll. This poll, conducted from August 11 to 14, showed that 28 out of 30 economists expect the rate cut, with only two predicting no change.
In July, the central bank kept the rate at 3.25% but indicated a readiness to lower it if inflation stays stable. Annual inflation dropped to 2.7% in the June quarter, which is within the RBNZ’s target range of 1–3%. However, the unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, the highest level since late 2020.
Economists’ Predictions
Economists view the upcoming rate cut as part of the final stage of the RBNZ’s easing cycle. ASB and Westpac believe there will be no further cuts after August, while BNZ projects a drop to 2.75% by the end of 2025. ANZ and Kiwibank expect the rate to reach 2.50% next year. The median forecast suggests a further decrease to 2.75% in the first quarter of 2026, slightly sooner than earlier predictions from July. With the market nearly certain about a 25 basis point cut on August 20, this expectation is already reflected in current asset values. Therefore, our focus is on the Reserve Bank’s forward guidance. The real opportunity will lie in any surprising statements about future cuts. The key question is whether this will be the last cut or just a pause before additional easing in late 2025 or early 2026. Recent data showing sluggish GDP growth of 0.4% in the second quarter of 2025 and a drop in global dairy prices of over 5% since June supports the case for more cuts. The RBNZ’s commentary on these weakening conditions will be crucial for market movement next week.Market Strategy
We recommend focusing on interest rate derivatives, especially options on 90-day bank bill futures. If the RBNZ indicates a greater likelihood of reaching a 2.75% cash rate by year-end, we anticipate futures prices will rise. A straddle—buying both a call and a put option—could be a smart strategy to capitalize on potential significant market moves, whether the bank’s tone turns out to be more dovish or hawkish than expected. This view also affects the New Zealand dollar. Recall that the currency dropped over 1.5% in one day in August 2019 after the RBNZ unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points. While a surprise of that magnitude is unlikely now, any indication of a quicker or larger cutting cycle than currently expected could push the NZD/USD exchange rate down towards its year-to-date lows. Given the uncertainty, we are looking at implied volatility in the currency options market. Current volatility is moderate, suggesting the market might be underestimating the potential for a sharp reaction to the RBNZ’s statement. Buying NZD/USD put options provides a defined-risk way to prepare for a dovish surprise from the central bank. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.US stocks finished mostly steady: S&P hits record high, Nasdaq dips slightly
US stocks barely moved today, with major indices ending close to where they started. The S&P 500 was up slightly by 0.02%, while the Nasdaq saw a small drop of 0.01%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down by 11.01 points, or 0.02%, at 44,911.26. The S&P 500 rose by 1.96 points, or 0.03%, ending at 6,468.54. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq fell by 2.47 points, or 0.01%, finishing at 21,710.67.
