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USDCAD encounters resistance at key moving averages, but buyers drive prices higher afterward.
The USDCAD encountered resistance at its 100-day moving average of 1.37738 and the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.37516. Initially, sellers pressured the pair, but buyers then pushed it higher during early trading.
UOB Group analysts believe the USD is unlikely to fall below 7.1700 anytime soon.
The US Dollar may test the 7.1700 level against the Chinese Yuan, but it’s unlikely to break below this point. Although there is a slight increase in downward momentum, a drop past 7.1700 is not anticipated.
Analysts say that for the US Dollar to keep falling, it must first close below 7.1700. The chances of this happening grow if the 7.1950 level acts as strong resistance.
Immediate 24-Hour View
In the next 24 hours, the US Dollar hit a low of 7.1758 but didn’t show significant downward pressure. Resistance levels above are at 7.1850 and 7.1900, which could be areas where prices stabilize. Looking ahead to 1-3 weeks, we expect the US Dollar to trade within a range of 7.1700 to 7.2100. If it closes below 7.1700, the next target will be 7.1580, suggesting further decline. This analysis highlights the importance of tracking momentum and closing prices, especially if they dip below key support and resistance levels, to predict future movements. Currently, the US Dollar is expected to trade in a range against the Chinese Yuan, likely between 7.1700 and 7.2100. For traders using derivatives, this situation might favor low-volatility strategies like selling straddles or strangles, as big price fluctuations beyond this range are not expected soon.US Dollar and Interest Rates
This view gains support from the recent US inflation figures, which were slightly lower than expected at 2.9%. This data strengthens the belief that the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates steady through the year, limiting the potential rise of the US Dollar above the 7.2100 level. On the other hand, China recently reported an unexpected increase in industrial output for July 2025, indicating some economic improvement. The People’s Bank of China is also managing its currency closely, preventing it from dropping below key levels, which is why the 7.1700 support level looks strong. This solid defense of the Yuan makes a significant drop in the Dollar unlikely for now. Looking back to 2023 and 2024, aggressive rate hikes by the US Fed caused the Dollar to surge against the Yuan. The situation in August 2025 is quite different, as both countries show a more balanced approach. This historical change suggests a more stable, range-bound market rather than a strong trend. The primary strategy is to trade within this expected range, possibly using options like an iron condor around these levels. However, be on alert for a daily close below the 7.1700 support. If that occurs, it may be time to change strategies, such as buying put options to bet on a further drop toward the 7.1580 target. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Scotiabank reports slight dip in Euro below 1.17, but support remains strong
The Euro is a bit weaker today but remains above recent lows. Current price movements indicate short-term adjustments. Eurozone data shows no changes for Q2 GDP, which is steady at 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 1.4% year-on-year. June’s Industrial Production dropped by 1.3% month-on-month, following revised strong growth in May.
The Euro is trading in the upper 1.16 range, which doesn’t disrupt its overall upward trend since earlier this month. The declines from yesterday seem to be more of a pause before possible gains. Support is at 1.1635, and if the Euro exceeds 1.1710, it could rise towards 1.1750.
It’s important to note that projections come with risks and uncertainties, so thorough research is essential before making any investment decisions. Understanding risks and potential losses is crucial. This content should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell specific assets.
The views shared here do not necessarily reflect official policies. No one is responsible for any inaccuracies or errors in the information provided. Personal investment advice is not given.
As of today, August 14, 2025, the Euro is pausing but remains strong above recent lows. This pause appears to be a short-term break rather than a trend shift. The upward trend from earlier this month seems to continue for now.
Recent economic data from the Eurozone presents a mixed picture, with June’s industrial production figures showing a decline. However, the July flash CPI estimate for the Eurozone was 2.7%, slightly higher than market expectations. This persistent inflation makes it less likely that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates soon.
Looking at the U.S. side, initial jobless claims released today rose unexpectedly. This contrasts with the significant rate hikes we saw in 2023, suggesting the Federal Reserve might consider easing policy more than the ECB. This situation may help support the Euro.
For those trading derivatives, a cautious and optimistic strategy may be wise in the coming weeks. Buying call options with strike prices above 1.1710 could help capture upside potential towards the 1.1750 level while limiting your maximum risk. This strategy allows for participation in a rally without full exposure if prices drop.
However, support at 1.1635 is an important level to monitor. If prices fall below that, sentiment could shift quickly. Traders may want to buy protective put options below this level as a safeguard against sudden market reversals.
NZDUSD hits a new weekly low after PPI data, as sellers take control of the market
The NZDUSD currency pair has hit a new low for both today and the current trading week. This drop came after positive PPI data was released. The pair fell below several key levels: the 100-day moving average of 0.5969, the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.5952, and the weekly low of 0.5912.
The lowest point during the session was 0.59075. Possible downside targets include the 0.59039 low from July 17, and the swing lows of 0.5882 from June 23 and August 5. Additionally, the 38.2% retracement from the April rally stands at 0.58769. Another important swing zone is between 0.5845 and 0.5860.
Buyers Regaining Control
For buyers to take control, the pair needs to rise above 0.5937 and the 100-bar moving average at 0.59524. Until that happens, sellers will continue to lead. With the NZDUSD falling below the crucial 100-day moving average at 0.5969, we are exploring strategies that could profit from further declines. This significant move suggests that buying put options with strike prices around the 0.5900 mark is a clear way to prepare for a drop toward the identified swing areas. This break is an important technical sign that sellers are currently in charge. The bearish trend is backed by fundamental data. Yesterday, the US Producer Price Index for July 2025 unexpectedly rose to 0.4%, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady for the rest of the year. As a result, the US dollar is gaining strength across the board. This is a stark contrast to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which is likely to start easing monetary policy before 2026. Further pressuring the Kiwi, global dairy prices have declined for the fourth consecutive auction, with the Global Dairy Trade index dropping nearly 12% since June 2025. Fonterra’s recent cut in its milk solids payout forecast is adversely affecting New Zealand’s trade terms. This weakness in New Zealand’s main export poses a considerable challenge for the currency.Historical Patterns
We’ve observed this pattern before in the second half of 2023. Back then, a combination of a hawkish Fed and falling dairy prices caused the NZDUSD to drop from above 0.6200 to near 0.5700. The current situation is showing a similar disconnect in monetary policy and commodity trends. Therefore, we see any short-term rallies back toward the 0.5950 area as opportunities to start or add to bearish positions. With the break of key support levels, we can expect increased volatility in the coming weeks. Traders are using bear put spreads to target the 0.5845–0.5860 swing area, which minimizes upfront costs while outlining the potential risks and rewards. This strategy enables a focused approach on the next downward movement without full exposure to a sudden reversal. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage drops to 6.58%, down from 6.63% last week
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.58% for the week of August 14, down from 6.63% the week before. This is the lowest rate since October 24, 2024.
Mortgage Rate Trends
In 2025, mortgage rates have stayed within a tight range, peaking at 7.04% in January and dropping to 6.53% this week. The 10-year yield, which often reflects mortgage rates, reached 4.809% at the start of 2025 and fell to 3.860% in April. The current yield is 4.30%, sitting comfortably in the middle of its yearly range. Since its peak, the 10-year yield has decreased by about 50 basis points. In comparison, the 30-year mortgage rate has fallen by 46 basis points. Even though the 10-year yield dropped significantly in April, mortgage rates didn’t decline as much. This shows that other factors are also affecting mortgage rates. With the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.58%, we’ve hit the lowest level since last October. This decline reflects the narrow trading range we’ve been in for much of 2025. Right now, the market seems stable, with no clear signs of a major shift in either direction.Economic Indicators and Market Expectations
The recent dip in rates aligns with the broader economic situation. The July 2025 Consumer Price Index report showed inflation easing to 3.1%, slightly below expectations. Additionally, the latest job report showed a slowing but still positive labor market, easing some pressure on the Federal Reserve. Recent comments from the Fed suggest they are satisfied with this trend but will wait before considering any rate cuts. Currently, markets see a 45% chance of a quarter-point cut in the December 2025 meeting, up from 30% a month ago. This rising expectation is likely to limit major upward movements in yields for now. Since the 10-year yield has fluctuated between approximately 3.8% and 4.8% throughout the year, selling volatility looks like a smart strategy. We suggest selling out-of-the-money call and put options on 10-Year Treasury Note futures (ZN) for September and October. This strategy, known as a short strangle, profits from sideways movements and time decay. For traders who think the gradual decline in rates will continue, a debit call spread on longer-term Treasury bond futures (ZB) is a lower-risk option. By buying a call option and selling one at a higher strike price, traders can benefit from a modest rise in bond prices. This method limits both potential profit and upfront costs compared to a full long position. We also observe that mortgage rates haven’t decreased as quickly as Treasury yields earlier in the year, widening the gap between them. This suggests underperformance in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). A potential strategy could be buying Treasury futures and selling MBS futures, betting that this gap stays wide or widens further soon. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.UOB analysts believe USD/JPY may have difficulty falling below 145.80, despite current negative trends.
The US Dollar could drop below last week’s low of 146.60, but it is unlikely to hit 145.80. The long-term outlook for the Dollar is negative, but it’s uncertain if it has enough strength to reach 145.80.
In the last 24 hours, the US Dollar fell to 147.07, which was unexpected as many thought it would stay above 147.20. With growing momentum, a dip below 146.60 is possible, but further declines to 145.80 are not expected. Any recovery should remain below 147.65, with minor resistance around 147.35.
Short Term Trading Range
In the next one to three weeks, the Dollar is likely to trade between 147.20 and 149.20. While the outlook was previously neutral, it has now turned negative due to the recent drop to 147.07. It’s unclear if the Dollar will reach 145.80, but resistance remains strong at 147.95. The recent decline in the US Dollar is mainly due to the July 2025 Consumer Price Index report, released this week, which was cooler than economists expected. This suggests that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates steady, which could weaken the dollar. Thus, we might see a break below the 146.60 support level soon. For those trading with derivatives, we’re looking at bear put spreads to take advantage of this expected decline towards, but not necessarily through, 146.00. This could involve buying a put option with a strike price around 147.00 and selling a put with a lower strike, perhaps around 146.00. This method limits risk while aiming for the slight downward move we expect. We need to monitor the resistance levels at 147.65 and 147.95 closely. We witnessed similar dollar weakness in late 2023 when markets began pricing in future rate cuts from the Fed. Strong US economic data, such as the upcoming retail sales report, could lead to a sharp reversal and test those upper limits.Monetary Policy Speculation
Adding more pressure is the ongoing speculation that the Bank of Japan may be moving away from its historically loose monetary policy. Recent comments from Tokyo suggest they may accept a stronger yen to address their own domestic inflation, which has reached multi-year highs. This combined pressure from a potentially dovish Fed and a less-dovish BoJ strengthens our negative view on the dollar for the next few weeks. Implied volatility in options has increased, reflecting the market’s uncertainty about hitting the 145.80 level. Given the strong resistance at 147.95, selling out-of-the-money call options with strike prices at or above 148.50 could be a smart strategy. This could help collect premiums while benefiting from time decay and the dollar’s inability to recover. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The USDJPY fluctuates near key moving averages due to rising US yields
The USDJPY pair reacted to the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart after the U.S. PPI release. This drove the pair higher to test the 100-bar moving average at 147.813, where sellers stepped in, with last week’s swing highs at 147.887 just above.
This upward movement positioned the pair between the 100- and 200-bar moving averages, outlining last week’s trading boundaries. Previous upward pushes above these averages reached targets of 148.58 and 148.779, but sellers regained control. A recent dip to the 200-bar MA quickly rebounded, indicating to traders that they should watch for the next major movement between these averages.
US Yields Rising
U.S. yields are climbing, which supports the USDJPY. The 2-year yield is at 3.744%, up 5.8 basis points. The 5-year yield rose by 5.4 basis points to 3.825%. The 10-year yield stands at 4.296%, gaining 5.7 basis points. Lastly, the 30-year yield is at 4.82%, up by 5.5 basis points. The USDJPY remains caught between its 100-bar and 200-bar moving averages, forming a tight range around 147.80. The price hasn’t broken out in either direction this week, showing clear market indecision. Traders should monitor for a decisive move outside this range for the next direction. This upward pressure is supported by rising U.S. bond yields, which are crucial for this pair. The U.S. Consumer Price Index for July, released on August 12, 2025, came in at 3.4%, a bit higher than the 3.3% analysts had predicted. This ongoing inflation suggests the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates soon, maintaining support for the dollar. Conversely, the Bank of Japan continues its very loose monetary policy, widening the interest rate gap between the two countries. This divergence makes the U.S. dollar more appealing than the Japanese yen. The current situation implies that any break from this range is more likely to be upward.Derivative Trading Opportunities
For derivative traders, the narrow range probably pushed implied volatility down, making options strategies more appealing. A long straddle could be a good choice to profit from a significant breakout in either direction while taking advantage of current market uncertainty. Alternatively, those who believe in the underlying fundamentals might prefer bull call spreads to bet on a price increase while managing their risk. In the broader context, notable resistance is around the 151.00-152.00 area, which led to interventions from Japanese authorities in late 2022 and early 2023. If the price breaks above, this historical zone will be the next major target. Traders should be prepared for increased volatility and the potential for official action as prices approach these levels. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Traders watch gold’s price changes, shaped by US economic data and a stronger dollar
Gold has dropped to $3,335 as the US Dollar gains strength. This decrease comes after the US reported stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data, showing a sharp rise in inflation for July, along with stable jobless claims.
During the American session, Gold traded around $3,337, down 0.50% from its intraday peak of $3,374.88. The US PPI rose by 0.9% month-over-month (MoM), bringing the annual rate to 3.3%. Core PPI also increased by 0.9% MoM and showed a yearly rate of 3.7%.
Market Sentiment Ahead Of US-Russia Summit
As the US-Russia summit in Alaska approaches, market sentiment is uncertain. Rising tensions over the war in Ukraine contribute to this unease. After a brief dip, the US Dollar Index bounced back above 98.00. US Treasury yields have stabilized, raising the chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Technical analysis indicates that Gold is trading between $3,340 and $3,370. If it breaks above $3,370, prices could rise toward $3,400; if it fails to do so, Gold may drop back to $3,340. Central banks maintain large Gold reserves, and its price typically moves inversely to the US Dollar. Geopolitical events and interest rate changes can significantly impact Gold’s value. With Gold’s recent pullback to $3,335, this is a reaction to the strengthening US Dollar. The unexpectedly high PPI data from July is weakening Gold’s appeal, presenting challenges for investors. This economic strength creates a complicated scenario, as the market also anticipates possible rate cuts.Inflation And Interest Rate Expectations
We’re observing a classic tension between current inflation and future interest rate expectations. High inflation, with core PPI at 3.7%, would usually lead to aggressive rate hikes, as seen in 2022-2023 when the Fed increased rates over 5% to tackle inflation. The current market expectations for a rate cut suggest a belief that this inflation might be temporary or a sign of an impending economic downturn. The upcoming US-Russia summit regarding the Ukraine conflict introduces additional geopolitical risk. A negative outcome could trigger a flight-to-safety trend, driving Gold prices higher, regardless of the Dollar’s performance. We should consider using options to capitalize on potential volatility surrounding this significant event. From a technical view, the trading range is clearly between $3,340 and $3,370. We can use these levels as signals, perhaps buying call options if the price breaks firmly above $3,370 or purchasing puts if it dips decisively below $3,340. The market is eagerly awaiting a catalyst to break this tight range. We need to keep an eye on the US Dollar Index, which is currently above 98.00. Gold’s inverse relationship with the Dollar remains a key theme, similar to 2022 when the DXY reached 20-year highs, pushing Gold down to around $1,600. Any investment in Gold derivatives is inherently a wager on the future direction of the Dollar. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Scotiabank experts say the Canadian dollar is stable against the USD today.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is currently weaker against the US Dollar (USD), staying within a known range. The Bank of Canada had thought about lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in July but decided to wait for more economic data.
The Euro-CAD rate recently hit 1.6134, its highest since 2018. This spike is linked to tariff risks affecting the CAD, which diverges from the fair value estimate of 1.53.
Current USD/CAD Trading Range
The CAD struggles to move beyond the mid-1.37 range, while the USD makes small gains. The USD faces resistance at 1.3800/10, and support is found at 1.3750. On August 14, 2025, we view the Bank of Canada’s choice to maintain rates in July as significant. Recent inflation data for July shows a slight decrease to 2.7%, making a rate cut in September more likely. This difference in policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is holding steady, puts pressure on the Canadian dollar. Given this situation, we are closely monitoring the 1.3800 resistance for USD/CAD. A simple strategy is to buy call options with a strike price just above 1.3800, anticipating a breakout in the next few weeks. This method minimizes risk while taking advantage of the expected weakness in the Canadian dollar against the USD.Market Impact of Tariff Risks
The Euro situation is even more notable, with the EUR/CAD rate at levels not seen since 2018. Concerns arise from the uncertainty around the upcoming review of the USMCA trade agreement in 2026, creating tariff risk premiums on the CAD. We’ve seen similar increases during the NAFTA renegotiations around 2017-2018, highlighting political risk as a key factor. The difference between the current EUR/CAD rate near 1.61 and the estimated fair value of around 1.53 suggests that the pairing is stretched. This leads to considering volatility strategies, like buying a strangle, which involves purchasing out-of-the-money call and put options. This strategy allows us to profit from significant price fluctuations, whether tariff fears cause an increase or a resolution leads to a decline. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.EURUSD trades between the 100 and 200-hour moving averages due to buyer-seller contention.
The EURUSD recently dropped below the 100-hour moving average and the 61.8% retracement level due to stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data. This decline stopped when buyers provided support around the 200-hour moving average at 1.1635.
After that, the pair bounced back to the 100-hour MA and 61.8% retracement at 1.16615, where sellers returned. Right now, the price is around 1.1649, indicating a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers at these technical levels.
