Insights 
VT 
Mary Daly’s upcoming speech suggests potential Fed rate cuts, while New Zealand’s inflation expectations are important.
Mary Daly, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, is preparing to speak to an audience. She recently showed openness to the idea of a rate cut, suggesting that two cuts by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could be appropriate in 2025.
While today’s agenda features crucial data points, the Australian trade balance is currently less significant. Instead, more focus is on the inflation expectations data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ); a rate cut from them is expected on August 20. This expectation is backed by the latest labor market data from New Zealand.
Canadian dollar rises slightly against a weak US dollar amid trade tensions
The Canadian Dollar is slowly rising against the US Dollar, trading in a tight range. The US Dollar remains weak, influenced by last week’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.
A weaker US Dollar, steady oil prices, and a positive risk environment are slightly boosting the Loonie. However, the absence of new driving forces limits price movements, making trade news crucial for the USD/CAD pair.
After hitting a high of 1.3879 on August 1, the USD/CAD pair dropped sharply due to a disappointing US jobs report. It is currently trading near 1.3744, showing little change during the American trading session.
Fitch Ratings has warned of a declining outlook for Canadian consumers because of a slowing job market. Consumer spending went up by just 0.2% in Q1 2025, and growth is expected to decelerate further in 2025 and 2026. Factors like fewer job openings, layoffs, and trade uncertainties—especially with the US—are affecting consumer confidence.
Fitch predicts that Canadian exports will face an effective tariff rate of 10.0% from the US, which could hurt confidence. The Bank of Canada is keeping interest rates steady but may lower them to 2.25% by the end of the year, although persistent inflation poses uncertainty.
Key data releases coming up include the Ivey PMI and the July labor market report, which may influence expectations for Bank of Canada rate cuts and the Loonie’s movements.
As of August 6, 2025, the US dollar is still on the defensive. The jobs report from last Friday, August 1, showed a gain of only 95,000 jobs, well below the expected 180,000, which has kept the USD/CAD pair stable around 1.3744.
The Canadian dollar is getting some support from stable oil prices, with WTI crude steady at around $82 a barrel. This, along with a generally positive risk appetite in global markets, helps support the Loonie. However, these reasons are not strong enough to create significant price movements.
Our attention will be on this Friday’s Canadian labor market report for July. We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 6.3%, which could increase the likelihood of a Bank of Canada rate cut this year. This puts the central bank in a difficult position, as core inflation remains high at 2.8%, above its 2% target.
In the next few days, we think selling volatility is a wise strategy. Options strategies like iron condors allow us to gain if the USD/CAD pair stays within its current tight range ahead of the jobs data. This approach takes advantage of market indecision.
We are also keeping an eye on any differences between the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve. This could be the key driver for a price breakout. In 2015, the Bank of Canada cut rates while the Fed was tightening, which caused the USD/CAD to rise sharply. A similar situation could occur if Canadian data weakens significantly.
The main risk for any positive Canadian position is the threat of US tariffs. The forecast of a 10.0% tariff rate poses a significant challenge, dampening enthusiasm for the Loonie. This trade uncertainty makes us cautious about making large, long-term investments until there is more clarity.
Kevin Hassett says Trump’s top priority is reliable economic data, with Apple set to announce investment updates.
The US Dollar is the official money of the United States and is used widely around the world. It plays a major role in global finance. In 2022, it represented over 88% of all foreign currency transactions, totaling $6.6 trillion daily. The Dollar was once backed by gold, but that changed in 1971 with the Bretton Woods Agreement.
The value of the US Dollar is greatly influenced by monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (the Fed). The Fed aims to keep prices stable and maintain employment by adjusting interest rates. When inflation is high, interest rates usually increase, making the Dollar stronger. However, if inflation is low or if unemployment is high, the Fed may lower rates, which can weaken the Dollar.
In times of financial crisis, the Fed uses quantitative easing (QE) to improve credit flow by buying government bonds, which can lead to a weaker Dollar. On the other hand, quantitative tightening (QT) involves stopping these purchases and generally strengthens the currency. Economic changes linked to key companies can also affect the markets and currencies, so any major announcements are watched closely.
Right now, the US Dollar is the most important currency to pay attention to, as it is closely linked to the Fed’s actions. The latest inflation report from July 2025 showed that inflation rose to 3.8%, putting pressure on the Fed to respond. This ongoing inflation is significantly above the 2% target and affects market feelings.
Based on this information, we think the Fed will adopt a strong stance to improve price stability. Current market predictions, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool, show a 70% chance of another interest rate hike at the September meeting. This possibility is causing the Dollar to strengthen against currencies like the Euro and the Yen.
This situation closely resembles what we saw in 2022-2023, when aggressive rate increases led to a surge in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY has now surpassed 107 for the first time this year, suggesting it may rise further based on historical trends. We are preparing for a stronger Dollar based on these patterns.
For traders using derivatives, this means buying call options on the US Dollar or on ETFs that track the Dollar. This strategy allows one to benefit from a rising Dollar while managing and limiting risks. With market volatility, indicated by the VIX index near 18, options trading can help navigate expected price fluctuations.
It’s also important to note that the Fed is continuing its quantitative tightening (QT) program and steadily lowering its balance sheet. This process reduces liquidity in the financial system, which usually supports a stronger Dollar. An announcement about slowing QT would be significant, but we do not expect that to happen soon.
In the coming weeks, we will closely watch key employment reports and retail sales data. Strong economic results would likely lead to another rate hike and support the Dollar’s growth. Thus, traders should be ready for increased volatility around these data releases.
Wix’s quarterly earnings per share reach $2.28, exceeding the Zacks estimate of $1.75
Wix.com reported quarterly earnings of $2.28 per share, beating expectations of $1.75. Last year, earnings were $1.67 per share. This quarter’s earnings exceed expectations by 30.29%, though last quarter’s surprise was a negative 6.63%. Over the past four quarters, Wix.com has exceeded consensus EPS estimates three times.
For the quarter ending June 2025, Wix.com earned $489.93 million in revenue, which is higher than the projected $487.54 million. Revenue last year was $435.75 million. The company has also exceeded revenue estimates three times in the last four quarters. Since early 2023, Wix.com shares have fallen by 40.3%, while the S&P 500 has increased by 7.1%.
The future movement of Wix.com’s stock may depend on management comments during earnings calls. Currently, the company’s shares hold a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), which means they likely follow market trends. The forecast for the next quarter’s EPS is $1.83, with revenue expected to be $502.1 million. For the current fiscal year, the projected EPS is $7.13, with total revenue of $1.98 billion.
In the same field, Realbotix Corp. expects to report no change in its quarterly loss and forecasts $0.8 million in revenue, which would be a 158.1% increase from last year.
As of August 6th, 2025, Wix.com has released a strong earnings report, exceeding expectations for both profit and revenue. This shows solid operational performance over the past year. However, we should be cautious because the stock has struggled significantly since early 2023.
The stock’s drop of over 40%, while the S&P 500 has risen, is mainly due to market fears about new AI-native competitors that gained traction in 2024. We’ve also seen signs of slowing premium subscriber growth in the competitive North American market. These factors make traders hesitant to expect a strong and sustained rally based on this good news.
As a result, there is high implied volatility in the options market for Wix. Before this announcement, implied volatility was around 55%, indicating that the market expected a big move but was unsure about the direction. This makes buying options risky and expensive at this time.
For those who think this positive report could push the stock upward, we should explore strategies that limit our costs. A bull call spread, where we buy a call with a September expiration and sell a higher-strike call against it, could help us capture potential gains while controlling risk. This strategy is wiser than simply buying a long call, given the stock’s history of declining after good news.
Alternatively, we might see this as a chance to profit from the high volatility, betting that the stock won’t crash but also won’t rise significantly. Selling a slightly out-of-the-money put option for the coming weeks could be a smart move. This allows us to collect a good premium, based on the belief that post-earnings movement will be sideways or mildly positive.
We also need to consider the company’s guidance, which predicts a slight dip in earnings per share for the next quarter. This, along with the neutral #3 (Hold) rating, suggests that the market may absorb this good news without a major breakout. Therefore, we should manage any positions we take carefully over the next few weeks as the initial excitement fades.
Ted Weschler started as a financial analyst at 22 and built a $264 million IRA fortune.
In 1984, Ted Weschler, a financial analyst, started his investment journey by fully funding his retirement account and taking advantage of his employer’s matching contributions. By 1989, his account had grown to $70,385. He then moved his money to a Self-Directed IRA, giving him more control over his investments. With a research-based approach and resilience through market crashes, he built an impressive $264.4 million fortune over thirty-five years.
Weschler achieved success by focusing on publicly available securities and enjoying an average annual return of 22% from 2000 to 2011. In 2012, he converted $131 million of his IRA into a Roth IRA, which came with a $28 million tax bill but ensured tax-free withdrawals in the future. His disciplined strategy included starting early, maximizing contributions, sticking mostly to stocks, staying calm during downturns, and prioritizing long-term growth.
Pathway to Success
Weschler’s investment skills caught Warren Buffett’s eye, leading to his hiring at Berkshire Hathaway in 2012. His journey highlights how IRAs can play a crucial role in retirement planning and teaches us about the importance of discipline and long-term investing. He shows that regular investors can significantly grow their retirement savings by following strong investment practices. Weschler’s story about growing a wealth through a retirement account teaches us a vital lesson for the derivatives market: having a solid, research-based strategy is invaluable. For traders, this means focusing on assets they know well instead of getting distracted by market noise. As of today, August 6, 2025, we face increased market uncertainty, which favors options traders. The latest inflation report for July showed core CPI stubbornly at 3.1%. With the Federal Reserve meeting set for September, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has risen to 21. This signals that significant price movements may be ahead for major indices. We should take action by structuring trades to benefit from this expected volatility. This could mean buying straddles or strangles on ETFs like the SPY or QQQ before the next Fed announcement. This approach allows us to profit from substantial moves in either direction, fitting well with the current market uncertainty.Strategic Trading Amidst Volatility
Reflecting on the rate-hike cycle of 2022 and 2023 can provide a useful framework for today’s market. During that period, traders who anticipated volatility around economic data releases did exceptionally well. We can apply this insight now by gearing up for similar sharp movements influenced by speculation on monetary policy. Our research should also zero in on sector-specific opportunities. For instance, while the overall market feels shaky, the rollout of 6G infrastructure is creating clear strength in certain telecommunications and semiconductor stocks. We can leverage derivatives to focus on these chances, perhaps by buying calls on market leaders while hedging with puts on the broader market. Ultimately, the key is maintaining discipline in our shorter timeframes. We need to clearly define our reasons for each trade, set specific profit targets and stop-losses, and act without letting emotions influence us. Sticking to these solid practices will help us consistently make the most of market movements in the upcoming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Jensen Huang and President Trump discuss chips and American investments at the White House
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently met with President Trump at the White House. While they haven’t shared what they discussed, it’s likely that topics like semiconductor chips, tariffs, China, and U.S. investments came up.
Soon after, Apple’s Tim Cook is expected to announce an additional $100 billion investment in U.S. operations. This adds to the $500 billion Apple has already committed to increasing domestic production. While it’s unlikely that this will result in iPhone assembly in the U.S. due to costs, the investment could help with other production needs or improve existing facilities. More details will emerge from Cook’s upcoming announcement.
Impact On The Semiconductor Sector
Jensen Huang’s meeting with the president indicates we can expect news that might impact the semiconductor sector. This meeting raises questions about tariffs and incentives for domestic manufacturing, which could lead to big price changes. We should pay attention to any official statements, as they could influence the entire chip market. Because of this uncertainty, implied volatility for Nvidia (NVDA) and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is likely to increase. Similar patterns occurred in 2022 and 2023 when news about the CHIPS Act led to sharp rallies and drops. In this atmosphere, it might be wise to buy options to take advantage of volatility, rather than just betting on market direction, over the next few weeks.Apple’s Long Term Commitment
Apple’s additional $100 billion investment in the U.S. shows a strong long-term commitment. Recent data from July 2025 indicate Apple’s hardware sales are starting to level off, making new growth ideas important. This significant investment provides just that, hinting at potential new product lines or improvements in U.S. facilities. This shift is likely a positive sign for Apple’s stock (AAPL) as we head into fall. Historically, when Apple has made large domestic investment commitments, its stock has performed well after. Traders may want to consider call options expiring next quarter to take advantage of this positive sentiment. These actions point to a larger movement to secure U.S. supply chains, a trend that has gained momentum since the disruptions seen in early 2020s. We should also keep an eye on domestic suppliers for both Apple and Nvidia, as they will likely benefit from these sizable investments. Small-cap and mid-cap industrial and tech companies based in the U.S. could see substantial gains from these developments. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The Pound Sterling strengthens slightly against a weaker US Dollar but falls against the Euro
Pound Sterling (GBP) is slightly rising against a weaker US Dollar (USD) but is dropping in value compared to the Euro (EUR). Recent UK data shows a steeper decline in the July Construction PMI, which fell to 44.3, the lowest in five years.
A UK think tank indicates that Chancellor Reeves faces a GBP 51 billion shortfall to address in the October budget. Meanwhile, market prices show a steady trend, reflecting a bullish reversal against the USD from last Friday.
The daily GBP chart suggests that the GBP could rise above the Monday high of 1.3330. Resistance is noted at 1.3365, while support levels range from 1.3265 to 1.3275.
This information is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be taken as advice to buy or sell assets. There are risks involved, and thorough research is encouraged before any investment decisions. There are no guarantees about the accuracy or timeliness of this data. Investing in open markets carries risks, including the possibility of losing the entire investment. The investor is fully responsible for any risks, losses, and costs.
Currently, the Pound shows mixed results; it is gaining against a weaker US Dollar but losing against the Euro. This situation suggests that the recent move in GBP/USD is more about Dollar weakness than Sterling strength. The market seems to be adjusting to these conflicting signals.
The US Dollar’s recent drop follows last week’s July 2025 jobs report, which revealed a smaller-than-expected payroll increase of just 160,000. This lowers expectations for tightening policies from the Federal Reserve, providing GBP/USD a chance to move higher soon. The pair is testing the 1.3330 level, with potential to reach 1.3365 if the Dollar continues to drop.
However, we should pay attention to the troubling picture in the UK. The July Construction PMI figure of 44.3 is the worst since the economic shocks of 2020, confirming a growing slowdown. Recent data also shows that UK manufacturing output has contracted for the second quarter in a row.
In light of this, one strategy is to consider short-dated call options on GBP/USD to capitalize on potential near-term increases toward 1.3365. This approach allows participation in the rally while limiting risk. It’s a tactical response to weak US data rather than a vote of confidence in the UK economy.
Looking ahead to autumn, the £51 billion budget shortfall poses a significant risk for Sterling. We remember the market volatility surrounding UK fiscal announcements in late 2022. The upcoming October budget might cause similar price fluctuations as the market reacts to potential tax increases or spending cuts.
Therefore, it’s wise to prepare for increased volatility in the coming weeks. Buying long-dated straddles or strangles on GBP/USD could be a smart move, as this strategy profits from large price swings in either direction, given the uncertainty surrounding the UK’s fiscal and economic future.
US Dollar Index drops to 98.50 amid declining investor confidence and weak macroeconomic data
The US Dollar is currently declining due to worries about stagflation caused by weak economic data from the US. All eyes are on the US President, who is expected to make a decision soon about the nominee for Fed Chair, narrowing the choices down to four candidates.
Until Trump makes his decision, many are hesitant to buy the US Dollar. This uncertainty is made worse by the need to find a replacement for a resigning board member. Recent data from the US Services PMI indicates economic stagnation in July, showing drops in employment and export orders, along with rising prices.
The ISM report points to stagflation challenges for the Federal Reserve. Similar economic conditions earlier this year also led to a fall in the US Dollar.
The Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates to maintain economic stability. In extreme cases, it may use Quantitative Easing (QE) or Quantitative Tightening (QT). QE increases the money supply by buying bonds, which can weaken the US Dollar, while QT stops these purchases and can strengthen the Dollar.
The Federal Reserve meets eight times a year for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to assess economic conditions. Key members at each meeting discuss changes to monetary policy.
Currently, the US Dollar faces pressure, with the DXY index trading around 104.50 after a significant drop. The ISM Services PMI for July 2025 reported a weak 51.2, confirming the slowdown and adding to stagflation fears. This situation makes holding long dollar positions risky in the short term.
Indecision about the next Federal Reserve Chair is a major source of uncertainty, causing many traders to hesitate. We saw similar nervousness back in late 2021 while waiting for Chair Powell’s reappointment decision. Until a nominee is named, this reluctance will likely continue to weigh on the Dollar.
In this environment, we should explore strategies that could benefit from continued Dollar weakness or increased volatility. Buying put options on the Dollar or call options on major currencies like the Euro and Japanese Yen can be effective ways to prepare for further declines. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has already risen from 13 to 17 in recent weeks, indicating that the cost of this type of protection is growing.
Everyone is now waiting for the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting set for September 17-18. The Fed is in a challenging position because raising rates to combat inflation could hurt the already weak economy, as shown by the latest data. This uncertainty will likely keep the Dollar low until we receive clear signals from new leadership.
Looking back to early 2024, weak economic data similarly caused a noticeable drop in the dollar as the market predicted potential rate cuts. The current situation seems to mirror that period, suggesting that betting against a rapid Dollar recovery is wise. This historical context supports the view that weak US data will likely lead to further Dollar weakness.
Crude oil futures drop to $64.35 due to inventory draw, sanctions, and supply-demand expectations
Crude oil futures have fallen to $64.35, a decrease of $0.81 or -1.24%. This drop takes the price below its 100-day moving average of $64.95 and below the range of $64.41 to $65.27. The next price target is the May 9 low of $63.61.
Falling below the 100-day moving average suggests potential further declines if prices stay under this mark. However, if prices climb above this level, buyers may become disappointed if the rise does not continue.
EIA Weekly Report and Market Reaction
The EIA’s weekly report showed a crude stock decrease of -3.029M, which usually supports higher prices. Additionally, a new 25% tariff on India was expected to help boost prices. Despite these positive factors, the market reacted negatively; after a brief increase, prices kept falling. Current resistance indicates that buyers are having difficulty affecting the market. Increased supply and lower demand are likely to push prices down in the near future. Crude oil recently settled at $64.35, breaking below the significant 100-day moving average of $64.95. This breakdown suggests that the trend is now headed downwards. Previously supportive levels between $64.41 and $65.27 have now become resistance against price increases.Market Strategy and Risk Management
The market’s response to recent news guides our strategy for the coming weeks. Even with a larger-than-expected inventory draw of over 3 million barrels, prices dropped, indicating strong bearish sentiment. This echoes a similar trend in late 2024 when positive news did not help a market anxious about the global economy. Recent macroeconomic data shows that global manufacturing PMI has fallen to a 14-month low, primarily due to slowdowns in China and Europe. This raises concerns about future energy demand, and traders seem to be focusing more on this than current supply levels. Presently, attention is clearly on declining global demand. Considering this situation, we should think about positioning for further declines. Buying put options targeting the May 9 low of $63.61, and potentially down to $60, provides a straightforward way to benefit from this bearish trend. Utilizing bear put spreads could also be a smart approach to minimize upfront costs while still capturing a downward movement. Our main risk level is a close above the 100-day moving average of $64.95. If prices sustain above this level, it would indicate that the bearish trend has failed and lead us to rethink our positions. Monitoring price action around this level is essential for effective risk management. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.UOB Group analysts predict that USD/CNH will fluctuate between 7.1800 and 7.2000.
The US Dollar (USD) is currently trading between 7.1800 and 7.2000. Analysts from UOB Group predict it may settle in a wider range of 7.1600 to 7.2240 over a longer period.
In the past 24 hours, the USD was anticipated to dip below 7.1750 but only fell to 7.1776. It then rose to 7.1950 before closing at 7.1890, showing a slight increase of 0.06%. Currently, the dollar seems to be in a consolidation phase and is likely to stay within this range.
