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Gold sees modest recovery as traders prepare for Federal Reserve interest rate decision

Gold prices edged up as traders adjusted their positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The market expects a second 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. This slight increase helped recover some of the recent losses that brought gold close to $3,886. Currently, it trades around $3,995, reflecting nearly a 1.0% rise after three days of decline.

Optimism About US-China Trade Talks

Initial optimism regarding US-China trade talks reduced gold demand. Gold fell nearly 10% from last week’s high of $4,381 but has since stabilized near $3,900. With the Fed’s announcement approaching, traders are closely watching for hints of new measures. A more extended easing cycle could support gold prices, while a cautious Fed tone might limit any gains. The US Dollar and Treasury yields showed mixed results ahead of the Fed’s decision. The Dollar Index dropped from an intraday high to 98.71, while Treasury yields rose slightly. Official data is sparse because of the US government shutdown. However, ADP’s preliminary employment estimates indicate private sector growth, suggesting ongoing economic adjustments. Looking ahead, the market will also focus on discussions between President Trump and President Xi at the APEC Summit. The direction of gold prices may depend on the outcomes of these geopolitical events.

Upcoming Federal Reserve Decision

As we get closer to the Federal Reserve’s decision next week, similarities to past situations are emerging. Previously, markets were anticipating a second rate cut to lower the target range toward 4.00%, which was considered supportive at that time. Today, on October 29, 2025, the scenario is different; the Fed has held rates in a tight 4.50%-4.75% range for the last five months to manage inflation. Derivative traders are preparing for a potential dovish shift from the central bank, although the timing is uncertain. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 22% chance of a rate cut at the December 2025 meeting, up from 15% last week. This suggests that options markets are starting to anticipate a higher possibility of easing in early 2026. Recent economic data supports this perspective, creating a favorable environment for gold. The latest Consumer Price Index report from September 2025 showed headline inflation dropped to 2.8% year-over-year. Additionally, the recent jobs report revealed that hiring slowed more than expected, with just 160,000 jobs added. This combination of lower inflation and a cooling job market puts pressure on the Fed to consider easing policy soon. For gold derivative traders, this means rising implied volatility. The CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) has climbed to 18.5, reflecting increasing uncertainty about the Fed’s next moves. This makes long-dated call options attractive for traders who believe the central bank will cut rates by early next year. The geopolitical climate contrasts sharply with past focuses on a single US-China trade deal. While tensions with China still exist, the market is more concerned with broader supply chain changes and conflicts in other areas. This creates a more stable demand for safe-haven assets like gold, unlike the sharp swings seen during the Trump-Xi meetings. Historically, the easing cycle of late 2019 set the stage for the huge monetary stimulus that followed in 2020, driving gold to new highs. History shows that the start of a sustained Fed cutting cycle can be a significant long-term opportunity for gold buyers. Therefore, any hints from the upcoming Fed statement about ending the current tightening will be watched very closely. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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September sees Russia’s unemployment rate at 2.2%, below expected levels

Russia’s unemployment rate for September is 2.2%, which is better than the expected 2.3%. This suggests that the economy is stable despite outside pressures. In contrast, global financial markets are facing challenges. The Euro has weakened against the US dollar after the Federal Reserve’s recent decision, with the EUR/USD falling below the 1.1600 support level. The British pound has also dropped to a six-month low, around 1.3140, as expectations rise for possible rate cuts by the Bank of England.

Fluctuations in Commodity Markets

Commodity markets are also seeing changes. Gold prices have decreased to about $3,950 per troy ounce due to a stronger US dollar. In the cryptocurrency world, Ripple (XRP) continues to rise, trading above $2.65, driven by hopes for ongoing monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. Looking ahead, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep its current monetary policy. In December, the ECB may slightly raise its growth forecasts. Overall, financial markets are influenced by both local and global economic factors. Russia’s unemployment rate of 2.2% in September is lower than expected. This shows the labor market is tight, a trend we’ve seen develop over the last two years. In late 2023, the unemployment rate fell below 3%, a record low since the Soviet era. This new figure indicates that the domestic economy is holding strong despite outside challenges, which is important globally, but it’s not our main strategy driver.

Impact of The US Federal Reserve

The key event affecting our decisions is the US Federal Reserve’s recent “hawkish cut,” which has boosted the US dollar significantly. This indicates that while a cut has been made, there won’t be aggressive easing, surprising many in the market. Therefore, we should prepare for continued dollar strength against other major currencies in the short term. The British Pound is particularly at risk, having dropped to around 1.3140. The market is now expecting more significant rate cuts from the Bank of England, widening the policy gap between the UK and the cautious US. This makes shorting the GBP/USD pair appealing, especially through futures or options. Gold’s decline to $3,950 is directly linked to the stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields. Over the years, we have seen that a strong dollar makes non-yielding assets like gold less attractive. We can expect this trend to continue, creating challenges for the precious metal. Given this situation, we should focus on strategies that take advantage of a strong US dollar and differing policies. This might include buying put options on the EUR/USD, which has already fallen below the 1.1600 support level, and on the GBP/USD as well. For commodities, it may be wise to hedge long physical gold positions with puts or consider bearish plays on gold futures. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Canadian dollar strengthens, bringing EUR/CAD down to around 1.6180 due to policy changes

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, signaling a possible end to the easing cycle. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem pointed out the economic harm from US tariffs but maintained that inflation is still close to 2%. As a result, the EUR/CAD pair fell to about 1.6180, with the Canadian Dollar (CAD) gaining strength after this decision. Although the rate has been cut, the BoC’s overall stance seems more hawkish. They believe the current policy rate is appropriate if economic conditions and inflation follow projections. The BoC also predicts that inflation will stay stable around 2% but has lowered GDP forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Macklem acknowledged ongoing challenges due to US trade policies and slowing global demand, which contribute to the weaker GDP outlook and softened labor market.

GDP Projections And Inflation

The BoC expects GDP to be 1.5% below previous forecasts by the end of 2026. Analysts believe it would require a significant shock for further rate cuts, as the BoC views the current rate as suitable. While more data will guide future decisions, the general agreement is that the easing cycle is over for now. The CAD’s strength after the BoC meeting contrasts with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) plan to keep interest rates stable. The main takeaway from the Bank of Canada’s decision today is that the rate-cutting phase is likely over for now. This shift to a more hawkish view, despite the 25 basis point cut to 2.25%, makes the Canadian dollar more appealing. The market’s quick response, bringing EUR/CAD down to 1.6180, supports this view and suggests that the Loonie might strengthen in the near future. There’s also a widening gap between the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank. With the BoC pausing at 2.25% while the ECB is expected to maintain its rate at 2.00%, the interest rate difference now favors the CAD. A similar situation occurred in 2017 when the BoC began raising rates ahead of other central banks, leading to a lasting period of CAD strength.

Strategies And Market Outlook

In the coming weeks, we should explore strategies that take advantage of a declining EUR/CAD. One option is to buy put options expiring in December 2025 or January 2026 with strike prices below 1.6100. This would allow us to profit directly from this trend. With Canada’s latest inflation rate from September holding steady at 2.1%, the BoC has solid grounds to keep rates unchanged, supporting this trading idea. The BoC’s clear communication is likely to reduce implied volatility in CAD currency pairs, which is beneficial for selling options. We should consider selling out-of-the-money call spreads on EUR/CAD, as this strategy profits if the pair trades sideways or moves lower, while also benefiting from expected declines in volatility. Caution is advised regarding the USD/CAD pair, given that US tariffs still pose risks to the Canadian economy. Recent data showing a solid 2.4% annual growth in US GDP for the third quarter suggests the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut its own rates, which could limit the Loonie’s potential against the US dollar. Thus, being short on EUR/CAD appears to be a stronger strategy than going long on CAD against USD. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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GBP/USD falls below 1.3250 amid rising rate cut expectations from the Bank of England

GBP/USD Decline

The GBP/USD fell more than 0.35% on Wednesday, dropping below the 1.3250 level. This decline is linked to growing expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates in November, along with speculation about the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions. During the European session on Wednesday, the Pound Sterling fell to nearly a three-month low around 1.3200 against the US Dollar. This coincided with a 0.2% rise in the US Dollar Index, which neared 99.00 ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement. For the second day in a row, GBP/USD hovered near 1.3250 during the Asian hours. The drop was influenced by the Pound’s weakness after the British Retail Consortium reported a sharp decline in UK food prices, approaching a five-year low and hinting at possible rate cuts from the Bank of England. We are seeing downward pressure on GBP/USD, reminiscent of times when central bank policies diverged. The markets are keenly focused on when the Bank of England (BoE) will start its rate cuts, similar to when the pair fell below its 200-day moving average. Currently, the pair trades around 1.2450, with all eyes on the BoE meeting next week. This situation feels familiar to late 2023 when expectations for a BoE rate cut caused the pound to drop toward 1.3200 against a strong dollar. Recent data shows UK inflation easing faster than expected, with the September 2025 CPI reading at 3.1%. As a result, money markets now price in a 60% chance of a rate cut by the second quarter of 2026, capping the Pound’s strength.

US Federal Reserve’s Impact

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve seems to be maintaining its current stance, but recent economic data is causing uncertainty. The last Non-Farm Payrolls report for September 2025 showed a slight miss at 165,000 jobs, indicating a weakening labor market. This has traders speculating whether the Fed may need to adopt a more dovish approach sooner than expected, leading to volatility in the currency pair. With this backdrop, options traders should prepare for potential swings around the central bank announcements. The implied volatility for one-month GBP/USD options has risen to 8.5%, signaling that the market is anticipating movement. A break below the key 1.2400 support level could trigger a swift decline, similar to a past technical breakdown. As a result, traders are positioning for this uncertainty by buying put options with strikes around 1.2350. This reflects historical patterns where sentiment against the pound shifted rapidly after breaching a crucial technical level. According to recent CFTC data, speculative net-long positions in GBP have decreased for the third week running, indicating that major players are cutting back their exposure. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Canadian dollar rises against the US dollar as USD/CAD hits a one-month low.

The Canadian Dollar has increased for the third straight day after the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its policy rate by 25 basis points, lowering it to 2.25%. This change caused the USD/CAD to drop to 1.3893, its lowest point since September 25. The BoC indicated that this easing cycle may soon end, as inflation forecasts remain close to the 2% target.

Market Reactions

Governor Tiff Macklem pointed out challenges from US tariffs and lower global demand. He emphasized that monetary policy has limited ability to boost demand while keeping inflation low. The BoC revised its 2025 inflation forecast down to 2.0% from 2.3% and expects Canada’s GDP to decline by 1.5% by the end of 2026 compared to earlier predictions. As a result, traders lowered their expectations for additional rate cuts, anticipating no significant changes until March next year. Now, all eyes are on the US Federal Reserve, expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 3.75-4.00% at 18:00 GMT. This follows easing inflation pressures and weaker labor conditions. The upcoming monetary policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will attract significant attention. The BoC’s “hawkish cut” suggests a growing divide with the Federal Reserve. The BoC likely won’t ease rates further, maintaining its policy rate at a suitable level. This provides a strong basis for the Canadian Dollar to strengthen against the US Dollar, especially as the Fed is expected to continue cutting rates. This perspective is reinforced by recent Canadian economic data that shows a robust economy. The CPI report for September revealed inflation steady at 2.1%, slightly above the BoC’s target. Additionally, Statistics Canada reported a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.4%. These figures give the BoC little reason to consider further rate cuts, making the Canadian Dollar (Loonie) more appealing.

Economic Outlook

On the other hand, the US economy supports the Fed’s decision to ease rates. The non-farm payrolls report for September 2025 showed only a modest addition of 150,000 jobs, below expectations, and the Core PCE inflation measure has decreased for four consecutive months, now at 2.8%. This soft data allows the Fed to justify further rate cuts to support the economy, putting downward pressure on the US Dollar. For derivative traders, this indicates that the USD/CAD is likely to trend lower in the coming weeks. Traders might consider strategies that benefit from a declining or capped USD/CAD rate, such as buying puts on the pair or selling out-of-the-money call spreads. The fundamentals suggest a move towards the 1.3700 level, last observed in early summer 2025. This pattern has been evident in past cycles where policy divergence influences the currency pair. For instance, during 2017, a more hawkish BoC compared to the Fed led to a significant and sustained rally in the Canadian Dollar. The current situation echoes that time, indicating this trend could continue into the year’s end. The immediate focus is on the Federal Reserve’s tone later today. Although the 25 basis point cut is anticipated, any signal from Chair Powell that the easing cycle might be shorter than expected could trigger a sudden rally in USD/CAD. Traders may use short-dated options to hedge against this event risk or prepare for increased volatility around the announcement. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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GBP/USD drops below 1.3250 as BoE rate cut expectations rise and UK data impacts markets

GBP/USD dropped 0.35% to 1.3219, falling below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 1.3237. Recent UK data showed inflation remaining steady at 3.8% in September and a weakening labor market. These factors raised the chance of a Bank of England rate cut in December to about 74%. The Financial Times highlighted a possible £20 billion impact on public finances due to a productivity downgrade by the Office for Budget Responsibility. Many in the market also anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut from the US Federal Reserve, even as uncertainty surrounds comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during a data blackout.

Technical Analysis and Potential Further Decline

Technical analysis indicates that GBP/USD could continue to decline. If it closes below the 200-day SMA, it may target an August 1 low of 1.3141, followed by 1.3100. If it rallies above 1.3300, the next resistance level is the 20-day SMA at 1.3367. The Pound Sterling is the oldest currency in the world and the fourth most traded, making up 12% of all foreign exchange transactions. The Bank of England’s monetary policy aims for a 2% inflation rate and significantly influences its value. Economic indicators, such as the Trade Balance, also affect the currency’s strength. Currently, GBP/USD’s drop below the 200-day moving average signals possible bearish trends in the coming weeks. This movement is driven by signs of a weakening UK economy and rising expectations of a Bank of England rate cut in December, with a 74% probability now. This pressure weighs heavily on the pound. Sterling faces additional strain as the UK unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in the third quarter of 2025, indicating a softening labor market. Although inflation has decreased considerably from the highs of 2023, the September figure of 3.8% is still nearly double the 2% target set by the Bank of England. This places the central bank in a tough position, needing to balance combating inflation with supporting a faltering economy.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates today, but the situation is unclear. A government shutdown, now in its fourth week, has halted the release of critical economic data like payroll and inflation reports. This situation recalls the shutdowns in 2013 and 2018, which forced the Fed to operate with limited information, leaving Chairman Powell’s message uncertain today. For those trading derivatives, this environment suggests that further weakness for Sterling against the dollar is anticipated. Traders might consider buying put options on GBP/USD with strike prices around 1.3150 and 1.3100 to profit from a continued decline. Shorting cable futures can also be a direct strategy, targeting the swing low of 1.3141 from August 1. However, we need to be ready for surprises, especially from the Federal Reserve later today. A surprisingly hawkish tone from Powell could quickly strengthen the US dollar, accelerating the pound’s decline towards its April lows near 1.2707. To guard against a possible reversal, buying short-dated call options with a strike price above 1.3300 could help position for a rebound if the Bank of England pushes back against the talk of rate cuts. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Bank of Canada Governor shares insights on monetary policy after rate cut

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem recently talked about the bank’s monetary policy after cutting the interest rate to 2.25%. This decision aims to help the economy adjust to challenges from US trade policies, even though tariffs are still hurting Canada’s economic outlook. The Bank expects the GDP by the end of 2026 to be 1.5% lower than earlier forecasts. Inflation is projected to stay around 2%. Growth predictions have also been changed, with expectations of 1.2% growth in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026. These adjustments reflect weaker demand and the effects of US tariffs.

Canadian Economic Outlook

The Canadian job market is slowing down, with hiring becoming more difficult, and inflation pressures are easing. There are still uncertainties related to US trade policies, which make the forecasts cautious. After the rate cut, the Canadian Dollar performed well against many currencies. The Bank of Canada confirmed its decision to reduce the policy rate, aligning with expectations. This follows another cut in September. The country is facing slow growth and ongoing inflation, with a 1.6% shrink in the economy during the second quarter. Recent data showed a slight rise in inflation, impacting the bank’s decision-making. Several factors influence the Canadian Dollar, including interest rates, oil prices, trade balance, and economic data such as GDP and employment rates. Changes made by the Bank of Canada and current economic conditions have direct effects on the currency’s value. The Bank of Canada has reduced the interest rate to 2.25%, something many anticipated. This decision was made to support a struggling economy impacted by US trade tariffs. The bank has significantly lowered its growth forecasts, predicting a GDP decline of about 1.5% by the end of 2026.

Impact on Currency and Markets

For traders in derivatives, the situation is tricky. Surprisingly, the Canadian dollar strengthened today despite the rate cut. This suggests that the market had already anticipated the cut, meaning easy bets against the CAD are gone. Future moves will greatly depend on whether upcoming data worsens beyond current gloomy forecasts. The economic troubles are evident in earlier numbers for 2025. The economy shrank by 1.6% in the second quarter, and unemployment has risen to 7.1%, significantly above the 6.2% seen in mid-2024. The weak job market and slow hiring clearly show how US trade policies are affecting Canada. Even though WTI crude oil prices remain strong above $85 per barrel—typically a boost for the Canadian dollar—the currency has been weak. This suggests that worries about Canada’s economy and uncertainty over US trade are overshadowing the benefits from oil prices. We need to closely monitor this relationship because any drop in oil could worsen CAD weakness. The central bank acknowledges that the range of possible outcomes is broader than usual, leading to higher uncertainty. This indicates increased volatility in the coming weeks, especially for USD/CAD options. Rising implied volatility shows that traders expect significant price changes as we seek more clarity on US trade policy. Thus, it’s essential to track key technical levels and incoming data. The USD/CAD pair’s success in staying above its 200-day moving average near 1.3950 is crucial. If it drops below this, it could indicate a shift in sentiment. Conversely, if it moves toward the October peak of 1.4080, it would confirm a resurgence of the Canadian dollar’s underlying weakness. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Industrial metal prices surge despite weak supply-demand dynamics, says Daniel Ghali of TDS

Copper prices have soared to a record high, not because of increased industrial demand, but due to fragmented inventory systems. This fragmentation has particularly favored Copper markets, which are facing pressure from potential tariffs. These tariffs encourage the movement of available metal into the US, making the London Metal Exchange (LME) tighter than usual. With global inventory pools being depleted more quickly, LME prices are rising. The expected growth of data center capacity in China could disrupt the supply and demand balance further in the coming years. Additionally, the world is struggling with mining disruptions in Copper markets, and smelter production could be jeopardized if the revenue from byproduct precious metals falls. These market conditions have created a situation where traditional supply-demand dynamics don’t entirely explain base metal returns. The focus has shifted not only to possible trade agreements but also to larger themes that are influencing the metals market today. The FXStreet Insights Team gathers market insights from various experts to provide a clear view of industry trends. With copper prices reaching a new high above $12,500 per tonne on the LME, it’s important to note that this isn’t driven by traditional demand. The strength in prices comes from a structural disruption in global inventories, not from a surge in industrial activity. Therefore, traditional methods of tracking factory output are less relevant. The ongoing threat of tariffs, particularly the expanded US measures on processed metals enacted last month, plays a significant role in this situation. These tariffs are causing a continuous flow of available copper into the United States, which leaves the rest of the world and the LME system unusually tight. LME-registered copper stocks have fallen below 30,000 tonnes, a level we haven’t seen in years, making the market highly sensitive to any supply shock. For derivative traders, this suggests that volatility is likely to remain high, and any drops in price will be short-lived and aggressively bought. Buying long-dated call options to anticipate further price increases seems wise, as the underlying supply squeeze is likely not a temporary problem. The market is poised to react sharply to any news indicating physical shortages. Looking ahead, we see demand factors that will worsen this supply imbalance. China’s Five-Year Plan, outlined earlier in 2025, includes ambitious goals for data center growth, which will require immense amounts of copper in the coming years. This long-term demand is already being factored into a market that is low on inventory. The supply side is extremely fragile, making the market susceptible to additional squeezes. We cannot afford any more mining disruptions, such as the recent labor strikes at a major Peruvian mine earlier this month. This scenario is akin to the commodity supercycle we experienced in 2021-2022, but now it’s driven by a more lasting supply deficit.

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Silver’s decline mirrors Gold’s, according to TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali, due to liquidity issues.

Silver prices are falling, closely mirroring the drop in gold. This suggests that precious metals are stabilizing. The decline is mainly due to a liquidity crisis and not a lack of demand, with silver price changes tied to liquidations much like gold. Silver’s price is influenced by shifts in liquidity. London’s silver inventories could increase by 50% from their October lows in just a few weeks. This means the market won’t need to set a new price for silver as it comes in from less common sources, which affects the bullish trends.

Industrial Demand for Silver

The demand for silver in industry has decreased compared to the beginning of the year, leaving speculative demand to sway Over-the-Counter silver demand. Export controls, including possible tariffs, create market risks, but silver is less affected by tariffs than metals like PGMs, zinc, nickel, tin, and cobalt. The recent drop in silver prices follows gold’s decline, but the main cause is a liquidity event rather than falling demand. A large amount of physical silver is filling London’s vaults, significantly impacting the market by capping upside potential driven by earlier fears of shortages. This influx is considerable, with estimates suggesting that London’s free-floating inventories could jump nearly 50% from their recent low in early October 2025. Current data from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) shows an increase in stocks, now above 900 million ounces. This rise in supply tells us that the market doesn’t need to raise prices to draw in metal from non-traditional sources.

Derivative Trading Strategies

For derivative traders, this suggests that bearish strategies may be the way to go in the coming weeks. Selling out-of-the-money call options or creating bear call spreads could be a smart move, given the limited upside potential. This increased supply is likely to become a strong resistance barrier during any price rallies. The gold-silver ratio supports this idea, having expanded from around 84:1 in August to over 91:1 today. This widening indicates that silver is lagging behind gold due to an excess of supply. If the trend continues, we might see this ratio approach 95:1. Speculative positioning also backs this shift. Recent Commitment of Traders reports show that managed money has cut its net long positions in silver futures by over 25% this month. Meanwhile, industrial demand is still weak compared to the start of the year, removing a key support factor. Traders should keep an eye out for any unexpected news about export controls or tariffs, but the risk for silver in this area is lower than for other industrial metals. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Central bank gold purchases have rapidly decreased despite rising prices, according to Daniel Ghali.

Central bank buying of gold has sharply decreased, even though rising gold prices have increased the percentage of reserves held in gold. The theme of dedollarisation continues to be analyzed in the market, but it hasn’t had a major effect on buying trends lately. Recent analysis shows that BRICs+ countries have paused their gold purchases. Instead, Eastern European nations are currently driving central bank inflows, indicating motivations beyond just dedollarisation. The selling by CTAs aiming for volatility control may have reached its peak, but we don’t expect significant future purchases at any price.

The Debasement Trade

The debasement trade has attracted notable investments from macro funds and retail investors, but the risk/reward ratio is not favorable right now. Upcoming Supreme Court hearings could change this. Leveraged positions are impacted by potential government shutdowns, making it hard to measure outflows accurately. Current data from proprietary models and ETFs shows that liquidations have been limited so far. While there is strong interest in buying during perceived dips, the market suggests this might not be the best buying opportunity yet. We believe that a key support factor for gold is weakening, which invites caution for derivatives traders. Central bank purchases have significantly slowed down. The World Gold Council’s Q3 2025 report reveals net purchases dropped to just 90 tonnes, well below the quarterly average of over 200 tonnes seen throughout 2024. The high gold prices have increased the value of existing reserves, reducing the rush for banks to acquire more gold.

Dedollarization Narrative

The popular dedollarization narrative that previously boosted prices seems to be on pause for now. Gold buying from major BRICs+ countries like China has remained flat for four months, while smaller purchases from countries like Poland appear to be more about regional diversification. This suggests that a key macro story supporting long gold positions has lost momentum as we approach the end of the year. While heavy selling from systematic funds likely peaked, we don’t foresee any strong reasons for them to return to aggressive buying. The trade against the US dollar is looking riskier, especially with the upcoming Supreme Court hearings regarding the federal debt ceiling, which could lead to unexpected strength in the dollar. Moreover, major gold ETFs like GLD experienced net outflows of over $1.5 billion in October 2025, indicating that investors are already reducing their exposure. Positioning data is unclear following a brief government shutdown in early October 2025, which delayed important reports. However, our models indicate that many leveraged funds still hold long positions. After reaching above $2,550 an ounce in August, gold’s decline to the current $2,420 level has many eager to buy the dip. Still, with many long positions yet to be liquidated, this may not be the ideal dip to purchase just yet. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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