Back

US dollar sees slight decline as market remains cautious before Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut

The US Dollar lost some ground ahead of the Federal Reserve’s expected 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday. Similarly, the Bank of Canada is set to lower its rate from 2.50% to 2.25%. The US Dollar Index peaked around 99.00 as US Treasury yields pulled back before the FOMC meeting. Key upcoming events include the Fed’s interest rate decision, MBA Mortgage Approvals, Pending Home Sales, and the EIA’s crude oil inventory report.

Euro In Focus

EUR/USD climbed for the fifth day in a row, moving closer to its 100-day simple moving average at 1.1660-1.1670. The European calendar is looking forward to the ECB’s rate decision and reports on Germany’s flash CPI, Q3 GDP Growth, and the labor market on October 30. GBP/USD is trending downward, approaching recent lows near 1.3250, as we await the Bank of England’s Consumer Credit figures and other financial data. USD/JPY fell to multi-day lows at 151.70, and Japan’s Consumer Confidence index is also on the horizon. AUD/USD stayed near the 0.6600 resistance as Australia’s Inflation Rate data is released. USD/CAD dipped below its 200-day simple moving average due to a weaker US Dollar, especially with the expected BoC rate cut. WTI oil slipped below $60.00 per barrel, while Gold dropped to four-week lows near $3,870 per ounce. Silver prices bounced back a bit from five-week lows.

Federal Reserve Decision Approaching

Today’s anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve seems very likely. This is mainly because September’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed only a gain of 95,000 jobs, falling short of expectations. With core inflation recently cooled to 2.8%, the Fed has clear reasons to ease its policy. This situation should lead traders to expect more volatility in dollar-denominated investments. We view this as a signal for more dollar weakness, as this rate cut is probably not a one-time event. It reminds us of the Fed’s shift in 2019, which led to a prolonged period of dollar softness. Traders might consider using options to position for a potential drop below the 98.50 support level in the Dollar Index (DXY) in the coming weeks. The Bank of Canada is also in a similar boat and we expect a quarter-point cut to 2.25% today. The recent drop in WTI crude below $60 per barrel and the sluggish domestic Q3 GDP growth of only 0.5% annualized is putting pressure on the Canadian economy. This makes shorting USD/CAD a popular strategy, so traders should be aware of a possible sharp reversal if the BoC’s guidance is less dovish than anticipated. In light of the European Central Bank decision tomorrow, implied volatility on EUR/USD options is likely to stay high as the pair tests its 100-day moving average. For those focused on commodity currencies, Australia’s upcoming inflation data is crucial for AUD/USD’s efforts to break the 0.6600 resistance. A weaker-than-expected inflation figure could halt that rally and open up an opportunity to short the pair. Despite the dollar’s weakness, gold’s recent decline to around $3,870 suggests that some traders are cashing in after its sizable increase. We believe its high price reflects the significant inflation issues we encountered throughout 2024, which are now easing. However, a dovish Fed today could provide some support for prices, making this dip an appealing entry point for long-term bulls looking to utilize futures contracts. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Australian dollar rises against US dollar ahead of Fed’s interest rate decision

AUD/USD has been rising for five straight days, thanks to a weakening US Dollar. Eyes are now on Australia’s Q3 CPI data and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision. The pair is trading at about 0.6586, its highest point in over two weeks, breaking through important moving averages around 0.6550. Key inflation data from Australia is coming out soon and will influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decisions. Quarterly inflation is expected to increase by 1.1% from 0.7% in Q2, while the yearly CPI forecast is at 3.0%, up from 2.1%. The RBA’s trimmed mean CPI could rise by 0.8% quarter-over-quarter, remaining steady at 2.7% year-over-year.

September CPI Projection

For September, the monthly CPI is expected to be 3.1%, a slight increase from August. A stronger inflation figure could affect the RBA’s position at its November meeting. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, which markets have already priced in. Technically, AUD/USD shows positive momentum, breaking above a short-term consolidation range and finding support at 0.6550. The next resistance level is around 0.6600. If it breaks above 0.6629, it could test 2023 highs near 0.6707. Support levels are at 0.6550 and 0.6520. Recently, the Australian inflation data for the third quarter came in higher than expected at 3.2% year-over-year, while the market had predicted 3.0%. This pushed the AUD/USD past the 0.6600 resistance level, confirming the bullish trend. Attention now turns to the October swing high near 0.6629.

Impact on Reserve Bank of Australia

The unexpected rise in inflation significantly impacts the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting on November 4th. The futures market now suggests nearly a 40% chance of a rate hike, up from the 15% probability just one day ago. This makes short-dated AUD call options an attractive way to capture further upside, especially since the RBA has held rates firm through late 2024 due to persistent inflation. Now, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s decision later today, with a rate cut of 25 basis points widely expected. Recent data shows a slight increase in US jobless claims to 220,000 and softer retail sales figures from last week, supporting this dovish expectation. The contrast between a potentially hawkish RBA and a dovish Fed creates a strong favorable backdrop for the Aussie. From a technical viewpoint, the previous resistance at 0.6550, which aligns with key moving averages, now serves as solid support for any pullbacks. As long as we stay above this level, the easiest path is upward, targeting the yearly high around 0.6707. Consider using any dips toward the 0.6600 level as chances to add to long positions or create bullish option spreads. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The yen strengthens, dropping USD/JPY to around 152.15, a 0.47% decrease

The USD/JPY exchange rate fell to about 152.15, a drop of 0.47%, as the Japanese Yen showed strength. This decrease is related to improvements in US-Japan trade ties, following new investments and cooperation agreements between the two countries. Japan has announced a $550 billion investment plan focusing on energy and infrastructure in the US. A new agreement on minerals and rare earths aims to secure supply lines and reduce dependence on China. Japan’s Economy Minister emphasized the importance of stable exchange rates to protect households and businesses from potential effects.

Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to keep its benchmark rate at 0.50% in the upcoming policy meeting. In contrast, the Federal Reserve may lower rates by 25 basis points, which could weaken the US Dollar. At the same time, political uncertainty in the US, due to the government shutdown and criticism of the Federal Reserve Chair, has negatively impacted sentiment. In this situation, the US Dollar is not as strong, while the Yen benefits from diplomatic progress and the BoJ’s policies. Overall, the market is unsettled as currency values change with global events. The significant drop in USD/JPY indicates a clear divide in policy direction. The Federal Reserve is hinting at a rate cut this week, supported by the latest US Core PCE inflation data from September 2025, which is at 2.5%, close to the Fed’s target. This easing contrasts sharply with the BoJ’s approach of maintaining rates, making the Yen stronger by comparison. The renewed trade and diplomatic ties provide solid support for the Yen. Japan’s large investment plans in the US, especially in key sectors, reduce geopolitical risks and bolster its economic position. This marks a shift from the tensions seen in previous years, giving traders good reasons to be optimistic about the JPY, not just as a safe-haven currency.

Political Factors Impacting the US Dollar

On the other hand, ongoing political issues from Washington are dragging down the US Dollar. We’ve seen similar situations before; during the US government shutdown in late 2018, the Dollar Index (DXY) dropped nearly 2% in the following month. This historical pattern suggests the current shutdown could continue to weaken confidence in the Dollar for weeks. For those trading derivatives, this environment suggests considering short positions on USD/JPY. Buying put options on the exchange rate allows traders to profit from potential declines while managing their maximum risk before central bank meetings. Implied volatility is high, but the strong momentum from both monetary policy and political factors may justify the costs. We also need to look at the unwinding of the carry trade, which has been profitable for years. As the interest rate gap between the US and Japan narrows with the Fed’s interest rate cut, holding long USD/JPY positions becomes less appealing. This situation forces traders to sell off those positions, creating more downward pressure on the currency pair. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Auction yield for the U.S. 7-year note decreases from 3.953% to 3.79%

The interest rate on the United States 7-year note fell from 3.953% to 3.79%. This drop occurred alongside wider market activities and changes. In other news, gold prices decreased to around $3,950 because of positive feelings about US-China trade talks. This optimism lowered the demand for gold as a safe haven investment.

Currency Market Trends

The GBP/USD remains weak at about 1.3280, as worries about a possible rate cut by the Bank of England persist. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD gained slightly due to trade optimism with the US and China and a weaker Dollar. Solana exchange-traded funds are expected to be popular at their launch. However, smaller altcoin funds may see less interest since BlackRock is not in the market. The US-China trade agreement brought relief to global markets that had been anxious. This positive change follows months of intense trade discussions and tariff issues. Pump.fun (PUMP) rose above $0.0050, fueled by positive trends in the cryptocurrency market. This increase is linked to whale accumulation and suggests a potential rally by the month’s end.

US Treasury Auction Insight

The strong demand at the 7-year Treasury auction, with yields dropping to 3.79%, sends an important message. It indicates that investors are expecting lower interest rates soon. We should think about positioning ourselves for a more cautious Federal Reserve stance in the coming weeks. Recent statistics support this outlook. The CME FedWatch Tool now estimates an 85% chance of a rate cut by March 2026. This feeling grew stronger after last week’s CPI data showed core inflation cooling to 3.1%, a level not seen since mid-2024. These figures give the Fed more room to ease policies. With these expectations for lower rates, the US Dollar might weaken further. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has already fallen below the 104 mark, a key technical point. It might be wise to consider buying call options on pairs like EUR/USD and puts on USD/JPY to take advantage of this trend. A lower interest rate environment is usually good for stocks, especially technology and growth stocks. The market’s fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), has dropped below 15, suggesting growing complacency. Buying call options on the Nasdaq 100 index could be a smart move for this potential upside. We also need to pay attention to gold prices, which are stable near $3,950 an ounce. As expectations for lower interest rates rise, real yields drop, making non-yielding assets like gold more appealing. This situation supports buying gold futures or calls to guard against any unexpected inflation or geopolitical tensions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Dollar weakens while Euro strengthens ahead of Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision

The Euro is doing well against the US Dollar as of Tuesday, following a decline in US Consumer Confidence data. The EUR/USD pair is around 1.1654, marking its gains for five sessions in a row. Still, traders are being careful as they await the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. US Consumer Confidence fell to 94.6 in October, down from 95.6 in September. The Present Situation Index went up to 129.3, while the Expectations Index dropped to 71.5. Inflation expectations for the next year increased to 5.9%. These changes have weakened the US Dollar Index, which is trading near 98.70, down from a high of 98.95.

Focus On The Fed

Attention is on the Fed’s interest rate decision, with many expecting a rate cut after September’s reduction. If a cut happens, the focus will shift to the Fed’s statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks. A hawkish tone could signal fewer future cuts, while a dovish tone might suggest more easing is possible. The European Central Bank is expected to keep its rates steady at 2.00% on Thursday, which may further support the Euro. This is happening alongside a lack of recent US labor market data due to the government shutdown and lower inflation numbers. The US Dollar is losing strength as traders react to the low consumer confidence number of 94.6. This is a big drop from the stronger levels above 120 seen before the inflationary period of 2022-2024, raising concerns about a slowing economy. The market is now almost fully expecting a quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Since the rate cut is widely anticipated, traders are more focused on the volatility surrounding the Fed’s guidance. One-week implied volatility for EUR/USD options has risen significantly, indicating expectations for a sharp move after the announcement. Strategies like buying straddles are appealing for those thinking a big price swing is coming, no matter the direction.

Potential Impact Of Powell’s Comments

If Chair Powell suggests this is just a recalibration and not the beginning of a deep cutting cycle, we might see a “hawkish cut” that strengthens the Dollar. In this case, short-term put options on the EUR/USD could be profitable as the pair could fall below 1.1600. On the other hand, any hint of additional cuts would be very dovish, potentially pushing EUR/USD towards 1.1800. After Wednesday’s announcement, we need to watch the growing difference in policy between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. While the ECB is likely to keep its rate at 2.00%, the Fed’s rise to 4.00% means the interest rate gap that has helped the Dollar is narrowing. This trend is a key reason for the Euro’s rally over the past five days. This shift from the Fed comes after a lengthy battle to control inflation, which peaked over 9% in 2022. The fact that inflation expectations for the coming year remain high at 5.9% shows persistent pricing pressures. This complex situation means the Fed will be careful about suggesting too much easing, leading to a very uncertain environment that is ideal for volatility traders. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

WTI oil prices drop as OPEC+ proposes production increase starting in December.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil has dropped by 2.55%, trading at about $59.80. This decline follows OPEC+’s announcement to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in December. The rise in output could create a surplus in the market, leading to lower prices. US sanctions on major Russian oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, may help support prices by tightening global supply. These sanctions involve freezing assets and banning transactions with US companies. At the same time, there is some optimism around US-China trade talks, which might aid prices as plans to lift 100% tariffs on Chinese imports are underway.

API Report and Market Reaction

Now, everyone is looking forward to the upcoming American Petroleum Institute (API) report on oil inventories. If the report shows a larger-than-expected inventory increase, it could put more pressure on WTI prices. The technical outlook suggests that WTI is receiving support near $59.50, but there are still risks ahead. The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $59.56 provides some support, but if it breaks, prices could decline further. Resistance is found at $61.00 and $62.38. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is below 50, indicates that prices might continue to decline in the short term. The drop in WTI oil to around $59.80 creates a challenge for traders. The main downward pressure arises from OPEC+’s plan to boost production, indicating a potential surplus as we approach winter. This situation is currently the market’s main focus. The OPEC+ decision to add 137,000 barrels per day marks a change from the production cuts seen throughout much of 2023 and 2024. The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, released on October 22, 2025, revealed a surprise increase in U.S. crude inventories of 1.2 million barrels, which adds to fears of oversupply. If OPEC+ increases production further, prices could hit the technical support level around $56.

Counteracting Forces and Volatility

However, there are strong opposing forces that could support prices. New U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers may tighten global supply more than anticipated. Looking back to the sanctions response in 2022, the initial shock led to a significant price spike, although Russia later found ways to reroute its exports. This history suggests we might see short-term price increases. On the demand side, hope surrounding US-China trade talks is helping stabilize prices. Recent data supports this, as China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for September 2025 hit 50.8, indicating modest growth and economic strength. A positive outcome from this week’s summit could quickly recover recent losses. Given these opposing forces, rising implied volatility is likely, making options strategies appealing. A long straddle—buying both a call and a put option with the same strike price and expiration—might be an effective way to trade anticipated price swings without predicting the direction. The key factor will be whether WTI breaks its support level around $59.50 after the upcoming API inventory report. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Chief Market Analyst Chris Beauchamp says price movements show confidence despite concerns over tech earnings.

The FTSE 100 recently hit record highs, following strong performances in Japan and the US. Even with these gains, the index is priced at 14 times earnings. Gold’s recent increase may help the mining sector bounce back. Concern is growing about a potential market bubble as Microsoft and Apple have joined the $4 trillion market cap club. Despite some nervousness around tech earnings, the market remains strong, unlike previous times of ‘irrational exuberance’.

Currency Movements

In other financial news, the GBP/JPY fell nearly 200 pips, while the USD/JPY dropped below 152.50. The latest AUD inflation data may affect the RBA’s interest rate decisions. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD rose due to optimism over US-China trade relations. Other notable events include gold stabilizing around $3,950 as US-China trade tensions ease, and the potential for a trade deal between Trump and Xi Jinping. Cryptocurrency markets are also buzzing, with Pump.fun rising above $0.0050, suggesting a possible rally. This article reminds readers that markets carry risks and uncertainties, and the information here shouldn’t be seen as investment advice. The author has no stock positions and isn’t responsible for any losses. Neither FXStreet nor the author provide personalized investment recommendations. With Wall Street and the FTSE 100 setting record highs, we shouldn’t resist this upward trend, even if it feels uncomfortable. The focus should be on protecting profits against a sudden drop, especially with significant tech earnings coming soon. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently around 18, making it cheaper to buy protective put options on indices like the S&P 500 for insurance.

Market Strategies

The rally is mostly driven by major tech companies, particularly Microsoft and Apple. Given the concentrated rallies of 2023 and 2024, it’s smart to reduce some exposure by selling out-of-the-money call options against these stocks. This allows us to earn income from high implied volatility while keeping the underlying shares for further growth. While US stocks seem pricey with a forward P/E ratio near 26, the FTSE 100, at 14 times earnings, offers an attractive alternative. A pair trade—going long FTSE 100 futures while hedging cautiously on US indices—could be a smart way to stay invested in equities. We’re also using gold call options as a hedge, especially since gold appears to have support near $3,950 an ounce amidst a relatively calm geopolitical landscape. In the currency markets, central bank policies are creating clear trading signals for the weeks ahead. With the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates this week, we expect continued modest pressure on the US dollar. Therefore, we’re maintaining a long EUR/USD position, especially now that it has crossed its 100-day moving average. We’re also watching for potential weakness in GBP/USD around 1.3280 due to concerns about a possible Bank of England rate cut. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

GBP/USD falls over 0.50% as the UK deals with deeper financial issues and productivity cuts

The GBP/USD exchange rate fell by over 0.50% on Tuesday as the UK faces financial struggles. The Office for Budget Responsibility warned of a decrease in productivity. The exchange rate dropped below 1.3300 for the first time since October. Additionally, the Pound Sterling lost ground against major currencies due to cautious expectations from the Bank of England, which overshadowed improved global market sentiment. However, the GBP/USD pair later gained some strength, hitting around 1.3365, thanks to hopes for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

Australian Inflation Data and RBA Meeting

Australia will release new inflation data on Wednesday, just before the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting on November 3-4. The data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics will include two different measures of inflation for the third quarter of 2025. Global markets began the week on a positive note after a trade agreement framework was announced between the US and China, led by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. This was a welcome change following a long period of trade tensions and threats. In the cryptocurrency market, Pump.fun (PUMP) continued to recover, trading above $0.0050. This increase signals growing optimism and the potential for a rally by the end of the month. The Pound is under considerable pressure as the Office for Budget Responsibility’s planned productivity cuts suggest a significant gap in public finances. This has contributed to pushing the GBP/USD pair below the crucial 1.3300 level. UK public sector net borrowing is now expected to be £20 billion higher than previously thought, casting uncertainty ahead of the new budget.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations

Despite the Pound’s weakness, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut tomorrow are growing stronger. Following a weaker US jobs report earlier this month, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are expecting over a 70% chance of a cut, which is impacting the US Dollar. This difference in central bank policies is a reason why the exchange rate is having trouble finding a clear path, fluctuating around 1.3350. For those trading derivatives, this situation is ripe for volatility plays on Sterling, similar to the fiscal uncertainty seen in late 2022. Buying straddles or strangles on GBP/USD could be a wise way to trade the Fed meeting’s results and the upcoming UK budget announcement. Using volatility options on the Pound appears to be a smart choice for the coming weeks. Looking at other currencies, the Australian Dollar faces potential risks with its quarterly inflation report due tomorrow. The market expects a 1.1% quarterly increase, which would bring the annual inflation rate closer to 4.5%. This data is crucial for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision next week. If inflation comes in higher than expected, the RBA may adopt a more aggressive stance, likely pushing the AUD/USD pair higher. Traders should be ready for significant movement following the data release. Using puts or calls offers a manageable way to speculate on unexpected results from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

United States 52-week bill auction rate decreases to 3.445%

Australia will release its inflation updates on Wednesday. The Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish two key metrics ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting on November 3-4. Global markets began the week on a positive note due to news of a new trade deal framework between the United States and China. The agreement, pending approval from Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, signals a reduction in previous tensions.

Cryptocurrency News

In the cryptocurrency world, Pump.fun (PUMP) rose above $0.0050 on Tuesday. This increase is part of a broader positive trend in the market, hinting at a possible rally by the end of the month. The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise, which could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming decision. The author does not hold any stock positions mentioned and has no business ties with any company in this article. FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations and are not responsible for any inaccuracies or incomplete information. This article is not investment advice. As Australia prepares to release inflation data tomorrow, we are looking for confirmation that the Consumer Price Index has increased. This report comes just one week before the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting in November, making it very important. A higher-than-expected inflation figure might lead the RBA to adopt a more aggressive policy.

Trading Opportunities

In light of this outlook, traders may want to consider buying call options on the Australian dollar against the US dollar in anticipation of a potential rate hike. For those unsure about the direction but expecting significant price movements, straddle options could capitalize on the expected volatility around the RBA announcement. These strategies can help profit from major market shifts in either direction. We expect the quarterly CPI to exceed the Q2 2025 figure of 1.0%, with market consensus around a 1.2% increase. This would push the annual inflation rate closer to 4.0%, which puts considerable pressure on the RBA since it is well above the target range of 2-3%. A strong inflation number would likely be seen as a signal for tightening policy. The wider market environment supports a stronger Australian dollar, as the recently announced trade deal framework between Washington and Beijing reduces global uncertainty. This positive sentiment is generally good for commodity currencies like the AUD. Additionally, the slight dip in the US 52-week bill auction yield to 3.445% suggests softer long-term rate expectations in the United States. Looking back at the RBA’s aggressive interest rate hikes in 2023, we observed that the AUD/USD could shift more than 1.5% just hours after a rate decision. Implied volatility for AUD options frequently spiked ahead of those meetings. This historical context indicates that volatility itself presents a trading opportunity, as the market is prepared for a sharp response to next week’s decision. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The Canadian dollar strengthens against the US dollar as US consumer confidence negatively affects the greenback.

The USD/CAD is falling as the US Dollar loses value due to a drop in US Consumer Confidence. In October, Consumer Confidence fell to 94.6 from 95.6 in September. The Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon announce their interest rate decisions, both expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. The Canadian Dollar is gaining strength against the US Dollar, with USD/CAD trading at about 1.3944, a drop of 0.30%. The Present Situation Index increased to 129.3, but the Expectations Index declined to 71.5, remaining under 80 for nine months. Inflation expectations for the coming year rose to 5.9%.

The US Dollar Index DXY

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to around 98.63. All eyes are on Wednesday’s rate decisions. The BoC is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%. This follows a 1.6% contraction in Canada’s economy during Q2 and an unemployment rate of 7.1%. The Federal Reserve is also likely to announce a 25 basis point cut due to weaker inflation data. Traders see a 96.7% chance of this happening. The Canadian Dollar is performing better than the British Pound. A currency heat map showing changes against major currencies indicates that the CAD is stronger compared to several others. Today, the Canadian Dollar is rising against the US Dollar, pushing the USD/CAD lower towards 1.3944. This is driven by disappointing US Consumer Confidence data, which has dropped for two consecutive months. Markets are becoming more cautious about the US economy ahead of tomorrow’s important central bank decisions.

The Central Bank Decisions

Both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve are expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points tomorrow. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 96.7% chance of the Fed’s rate cut, meaning it’s already reflected in current prices. Thus, any immediate market reaction might be limited unless there is an unexpected announcement. For traders in derivatives, the high likelihood of these cuts suggests that implied volatility on very short-term USD/CAD options is likely elevated. Strategies that could benefit from a decline in volatility after the announcements include selling a short-dated straddle. This would be advantageous if the central banks announce as expected and the market stabilizes afterward. Looking ahead, the focus will shift from the cuts to the guidance provided by both central banks. We will pay attention to any differences in tone between the Fed and the BoC to gauge the future direction of the currency pair. The bank that hints at a longer or deeper easing cycle is likely to see its currency weaken more noticeably than the other. This situation is similar to the coordinated easing efforts seen during slower periods in the late 2010s, before the pandemic. Current US jobless claims are also slowly increasing, recently reaching a six-month high of 245,000, raising concerns for the Fed. In Canada, a global slowdown could increase pressure on West Texas Intermediate crude prices, which have softened to around $78 a barrel, potentially creating headwinds for the loonie despite its current strength. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Back To Top
server

Hello there 👋

How can I help you?

Chat with our team instantly

Live Chat

Start a live conversation through...

  • Telegram
    hold On hold
  • Coming Soon...

Hello there 👋

How can I help you?

telegram

Scan the QR code with your smartphone to start a chat with us, or click here.

Don’t have the Telegram App or Desktop installed? Use Web Telegram instead.

QR code