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The auction for Germany’s 10-year bonds increased to 2.69%, up from 2.39% before
Germany’s 10-year bond auction yield rose to 2.69%, up from 2.39%. This change reflects ongoing trends affecting financial markets.
In the currency market, the EUR/USD pair traded above 1.1700, supported by a weaker US Dollar. This shift came after July’s inflation data changed risk sentiment, keeping the Euro’s outlook positive.
EIA inventory data coming soon, showing bearish trends in crude oil prices.
The EIA will share its weekly oil inventory data at 10:30 AM today. Crude oil prices are holding steady as the market waits for inventory updates and assesses technical trends.
Recent private data shows an increase in crude oil by 1.5 million barrels and distillates by 300,000 barrels. However, Cushing stocks have dropped by 600,000 barrels. Market estimates predict a decrease in crude oil by 275,000 barrels and an increase in distillates by 725,000 barrels. Last week’s change for Cushing was noted at 453,000 barrels.
Market Technical Analysis
Crude oil is currently priced at $63.03, down $0.14 from the last close of $63.17. The price has fallen below the 100-hour moving average of $64.78. This level, along with the trading range of $63.61 to $65.27, is crucial for understanding market direction. Staying below this range shows that sellers are in control in the short term, while breaking above it could change the trend. As we wait for today’s 10:30 AM EIA inventory update from August 13, 2025, crude oil remains steady around $63. This price is quite low for mid-August, especially compared to prices over $80 during the same time in 2023. This weakness highlights deeper market worries beyond just inventory figures. Concerns about weaker global demand weigh on the market. Notably, China’s manufacturing PMI for July 2025 fell to 49.8. Along with stable OPEC+ production, this has kept sellers active this summer. With the busy US driving season ending, prices are facing even more pressure.Market Outlook and Strategy
Private reports released late yesterday revealed an unexpected crude build of 1.5 million barrels, supporting the bearish sentiment. Yet, the market still anticipates a slight draw of 275,000 barrels in today’s EIA report. Any difference here could lead to significant price fluctuations for traders. On the technical side, the price remains below the 100-hour moving average of $64.78. The critical range between $63.61 and $65.27 defines risk in the short term. As long as prices stay below this ceiling, sellers maintain an advantage. Strategies like buying put options or selling call spreads can be appealing. Looking ahead, traders should monitor for any confirmations of inventory builds from the EIA. If we see another official build, like the 2.1 million barrel surprise in July 2025, it would strengthen the bearish trend and could push prices closer to $60. The biggest risk to the upside is a major supply disruption, like a significant hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, which could swiftly change market sentiment. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Recent information shows that the price of silver (XAG/USD) increased today.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) climbed on Wednesday, reaching $38.52 per troy ounce, an increase of 1.60% from the day before. Since January, silver prices have jumped by 33.32%.
The Gold/Silver ratio fell to 87.23, down from 88.31 on Tuesday. This ratio shows how many ounces of silver equal the value of one ounce of gold.
Value Of Silver As A Wealth Store
Silver has long been valued as a way to store wealth and exchange value. It is seen as a protective asset during inflation. People acquire silver either as physical metal or through Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Several factors influence silver prices. Geopolitical issues and economic fears can increase demand for silver as a safe asset. Interest rates also play a role; lower rates generally lead to higher prices. Industrial use of silver, particularly in electronics and solar energy, affects its price. Demand from the U.S., China, and India due to industrial uses and jewelry purchases is also important. Silver prices often rise when gold prices go up. Both metals are viewed as safe assets. The Gold/Silver ratio can offer insights into how the two metals are valued relative to each other. Silver is experiencing strong momentum. With prices at $38.52 and a 33% increase this year, it’s a good time to explore strategies that benefit from this trend. This rally suggests strong underlying demand.Key Signals In The Gold Silver Market
The drop in the Gold/Silver ratio to 87.23 signals that silver is doing better than gold. Historically, this ratio is high compared to the 21st-century average of around 65, indicating silver has potential for further gains. This makes silver a more attractive option than gold right now. We should closely monitor central bank policies, as lower interest rates tend to support silver prices. Recent comments from the Federal Reserve in July 2025 have raised market expectations for a possible rate cut before the year’s end. This economic climate is favorable for precious metals. Industrial demand for silver is strengthening, providing a solid base for prices. Global solar panel installations for 2025 are expected to exceed those in 2024 by 10%, and there’s been a strong rebound in semiconductor sales. These trends could sustain high physical demand for silver. Investor sentiment is shifting positively, as seen in fund flows. Major silver-backed ETFs have recorded net inflows of over 50 million ounces since June 2025, reversing the outflows seen in 2024. This reflects growing confidence among traders and investors. Given this optimistic outlook, buying call options with short expiration dates may be a smart strategy to take advantage of potential gains. However, considering this year’s sharp increase, we should be cautious of a possible pullback. Using bull call spreads could be a wise approach to limit risk while still benefiting from rising prices. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.UOB Group analysts predict that the NZD/USD could reach 0.6000, but upward momentum is unclear.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is gaining strength, though it may struggle to hit the 0.6000 level.
Recently, the NZD dropped to 0.5914 but then climbed to 0.5963. Current trends suggest it will trade between 0.5930 and 0.5970 instead of making a strong upward leap.
Earlier, forecasts predicted the NZD would rise slightly but expressed skepticism about reaching 0.6000. As long as the 0.5910 support holds, the NZD should remain stable.
Investing in currency trading carries risks and uncertainties. It’s crucial to research thoroughly before making investment choices due to potential market risks. The information provided here is not advice or recommendations for specific investments.
We see some strength in the New Zealand Dollar, but we are cautious about it crossing the important 0.6000 mark soon. The currency appears to be settling into a range between 0.5930 and 0.5970. Strategies that take advantage of limited price movement or a gradual rise may be the most effective.
This perspective is backed by recent economic data from August 2025. Last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its Official Cash Rate steady at 5.5%, noting persistent inflation. The latest Q2 2025 CPI data shows a 2.8% annual increase. This suggests there won’t be a big rally, reinforcing the stable trading range.
For derivative traders, consider selling out-of-the-money put options below the 0.5910 support level. For example, selling September puts with a 0.5850 strike price could earn premium as long as the NZD doesn’t drop sharply. This strategy benefits from stable prices and the passing of time.
The latest Global Dairy Trade auction on August 5, 2025, showed a modest price increase of 1.2%. While this is good for the NZD, it’s not enough to trigger a big breakout, supporting our view of limited upside. This slight upward pressure makes selling puts less risky than selling calls.
To cautiously bet on potential gains, we might buy a call spread, such as purchasing a 0.5950 September call and selling a 0.6000 September call. This strategy defines our risk and profits if the NZD approaches the top of its range without needing a drastic increase. It allows us to take part in a gradual rise while recognizing strong resistance at 0.6000.
Looking back, the NZD/USD pair faced high volatility in response to changes in US Federal Reserve policy throughout 2023 and 2024. Thus, any unexpected inflation data from the U.S. in the coming weeks could disrupt this stability. This past volatility makes defined-risk strategies like spreads preferable to naked options.
An alternative for those confident the 0.5910 to 0.6000 range will hold is an iron condor. By selling a call spread above 0.6000 and a put spread below 0.5910, we can profit as long as the currency stays within these boundaries. This approach is neutral and benefits directly from low volatility in the coming weeks.
The search for the next Fed chair includes Rick Reider, David Zervos, and others.
The Trump administration is expanding its search for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. Now, Rick Reider from Blackrock, David Zervos of Jefferies LLC, and Larry Lindsey, a former Fed Governor, are being considered.
Both Reider and Zervos often appear on CNBC and other business news channels. Lindsey is also a regular face in these programs.
Potential Candidates
Other candidates include Kevin Hassett, who is the current White House national economic advisor, and Jim Bullard, the current Fed President. Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, and Lorie Logan, all current Fed Governors, are also on the list. Logan is additionally the Dallas Fed President. Marc Summerlin, an economic advisor to George Bush, and Christopher Waller, a current Fed Governor, are in the running too. Kevin Warsh, a former Fed Governor and now an advisor to the Hoover Institution, rounds out the list of candidates. This search for the next Fed Chair is creating uncertainty and increasing market nerves. The latest inflation report from July 2025 shows a stubborn 3.1% CPI, while the unemployment rate has risen slightly to 4.2%. This situation complicates the Federal Reserve’s next steps from its current policy rate of 4.75%. Choosing the right leader is crucial for market trends. We can compare this situation to 2017 when a new chair was also being chosen. That period saw significant bond market volatility as various candidates were discussed in the media. We can look to that time to understand what might happen in the coming weeks.Market Implications and Trading Strategies
For those trading derivatives, it’s important to monitor implied volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has been around 18, but we expect it to increase as speculation grows over who will be nominated. Buying VIX futures or call options could serve as a smart hedge against sudden market changes. The difference between hawkish and dovish candidates is key for interest rate markets. To prepare, we are considering options on SOFR futures. A hawkish choice could raise short-term rate expectations, while a dovish surprise could lower them. In that case, a long strangle might be a good strategy to benefit from a significant movement in either direction. This uncertainty also affects equities, especially sectors sensitive to interest rates like technology and real estate. We’re noticing increased options activity on ETFs like QQQ and XLRE. Traders might think about buying puts on these ETFs if they suspect a more aggressive, inflation-focused chair will be appointed. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.USD weakens against major currencies as sellers dominate early in North American trading
The USD starts the North American session at a low point. We will focus on three major currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD.
Technical Analysis Overview
We will look at each pair to understand their trends, targets, and risks. This analysis helps to predict how these pairs might move in the market. With the US dollar struggling at the start of the week, we are searching for opportunities against it. The market is responding to last week’s US inflation data, which was reported at 2.8% for July. This figure fell short of expectations, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts by early 2026. As a result, there’s a growing trend to sell dollars, so traders should think about buying put options on the dollar index or call options on other currencies. For the EUR/USD, we noticed a clear upward move past the 1.1500 level. This rise is supported by the European Central Bank’s recent hawkish stance, creating a difference in policy when compared to the Fed. Traders might consider buying call options with a strike price around 1.1600, aiming for higher movement in the coming weeks while managing their risks. The GBP/USD is also showing strong performance, nearing its yearly highs. UK wage growth data from earlier this month was robust at 4.5%, indicating that the Bank of England may delay rate cuts. This makes long GBP/USD futures an appealing option for traders betting on continued dollar weakness.Market Trends and Strategies
Looking at USD/JPY, this pair is declining sharply as the dollar weakens and the yen strengthens. There are talks that the Bank of Japan might soon drop its negative interest rate policy after experiencing stable inflation in Tokyo last month. Buying put options on USD/JPY could be a smart move to prepare for a potential steep decline if the BoJ indicates a change in policy. This market reminds us of late 2023 when shifts in Fed expectations led to a prolonged decline in the dollar. That time saw strong trends develop, benefiting traders who held positions through futures or long-term options. Given this background, we should anticipate increased volatility compared to the summer lows. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Indian Rupee strengthens against US Dollar in afternoon trading amid Fed rate cut speculation
The Indian Rupee is doing better against the US Dollar, with the USD/INR pair dropping to about 87.65. This decline is tied to expectations that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates after the latest US consumer price index (CPI) data.
The US Dollar Index has decreased by 0.4%, reaching around 97.70, the lowest it’s been in two weeks. The chance of a Fed rate cut in September has increased significantly, from 86% to 94%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
US CPI Report
The latest US CPI report shows that inflation is at 2.7% year-over-year, which is slightly lower than expected. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, grew by 3.1%, surpassing the forecast of 3%. Today, the USD is weakest against the Swiss Franc, while other major currencies are experiencing mixed changes. In India, the CPI has decreased to 1.55%, the lowest level since June 2017. India’s economic outlook is uncertain, with concerns that inflation might fall below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) predictions. US tariffs on Indian exports and increased tariffs on imports from India could affect GDP growth. In technical analysis, the USD/INR pair is close to 87.65, showing a bullish trend backed by a higher 20-day EMA. Resistance is expected near the August 5 high of 88.25.Market Concerns and Strategies
The market is anticipating a likely Fed rate cut in September, which is primarily driving the USD’s decline. This has pushed the USD/INR pair down to 87.65, creating opportunities to bet on further dollar weakness against the rupee. However, we must also consider India’s low inflation rate of 1.55%. This gives the RBI a strong reason to lower its own interest rates to boost growth. If the RBI cuts rates, it could weaken the Rupee, which may raise the USD/INR pair and offset the effects of a weaker dollar. Recent data from early August 2025 indicates that foreign investors have started withdrawing money from Indian government bonds, expecting a potential RBI rate cut. This capital outflow is putting pressure on the Rupee, showing that the market is split on what will happen next for the currency pair. This situation reminds us of 2019 when both the Fed and the RBI were reducing rates. During that time, while the USD/INR pair was volatile, it ultimately trended upwards as traders favored the safety of the US Dollar amid global economic concerns. A weaker dollar doesn’t always mean a stronger Rupee, especially when India’s economic future is uncertain. The technical chart indicates that even though the pair has dipped recently, it remains in a longer-term uptrend. We view the recent high of 88.25 as a key resistance point. Given the mixed signals from both central banks, we believe a volatility strategy, like buying both call and put options, may be wise for profiting from significant moves in either direction. In the upcoming weeks, we will monitor comments from RBI officials for clues about their next steps. Additionally, the forthcoming US jobs report will be critical in determining if the Fed will move ahead with a rate cut. Any surprises in this data could lead to sharp movements in the currency markets. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.China’s new loans total 50 billion, falling short of the expected 300 billion
In July, China’s new loans reached only $50 billion, much less than the expected $300 billion. This shortfall occurred with no significant data releases to support stronger demand for the dollar.
The EUR/USD currency pair held above 1.1700, while the US dollar weakened due to positive market sentiment after inflation data. Similarly, GBP/USD rose past 1.3550 as the dollar struggled amid anticipation of insights from the Federal Reserve.
Gold And AI Tokens
Gold saw slight gains, remaining above $3,350, but its rise was limited due to optimistic market sentiment. Meanwhile, leading artificial intelligence tokens climbed in value, especially after Perplexity announced a $34.5 billion bid for Google Chrome. This news boosted interest in Bittensor, Near Protocol, and Render. The Bank of England surprised the market by cutting rates by 25 basis points to 4%. Although inflation remains a concern, with the headline figure above target, the central bank hinted that the easing cycle is almost over. Conflicting signals in the market present opportunities for derivative traders. The surprising drop in China’s new loans, confirmed by July’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI falling to 48.5, indicates a significant slowdown. This situation suggests that a risk-off approach might soon take hold. The current weakness of the US dollar, which pushed EUR/USD above 1.1700, could be temporary. Major global economic worries, such as those from China, often lead to a flight to safety, similar to the market shock in early 2020. Therefore, purchasing call options on the dollar or put options on the Euro could be wise hedges against market shifts.British Pound And Gold
For the British Pound, the Bank of England’s recent rate cut is viewed as “hawkish,” signaling that the easing cycle is nearing its end. With the latest UK CPI data steady at 3.1%, well above target, the BoE has little room for further cuts. This scenario could make long positions in GBP appealing against currencies from more dovish central banks. Gold finds itself between long-term fears and short-term optimism, keeping it above $3,350 but restricting its rise. Data from the World Gold Council indicates that institutional investors withdrew $1.2 billion from gold ETFs last week, hinting that they believe prices may be limited for now. This environment is ideal for traders who want to sell covered calls or set up option strangles to profit from price movements, whether up or down. Meanwhile, the excitement surrounding top AI tokens like Bittensor and Render shows that part of the market is overlooking macro risks. The surge, driven by news like Perplexity’s bid, is causing high implied volatility in the options market for these assets, reminiscent of the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s, where certain sectors became disconnected from the broader economy. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Nasdaq hits new highs as market optimism grows from Fed expectations and technical analysis
The Nasdaq has hit new record highs as traders are anticipating a rate cut in September. The latest US CPI report met expectations, keeping the predicted cut unchanged. After this report, the expected Federal Reserve easing adjusted from 57 basis points to 61 basis points. While most Fed members are in favor of a September cut, a strong non-farm payroll report could change future cut likelihood.
Jackson Hole Symposium Highlights
All eyes are on Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. He is expected to emphasize that decisions will be made based on thorough data. The Fed’s cautious approach—despite a strong economy—supports the stock market, maintaining a bullish trend unless rate hikes or negative growth occur. On the daily chart, the Nasdaq shows significant gains and signs of FOMO among investors. Buyers might consider better risk-to-reward opportunities around the trendline, which likely requires a pullback before September. If prices dip below, we could see a drop to 22,400. The 4-hour chart indicates bullish momentum with a minor trendline. Buyers may look to this trendline to achieve new highs, while sellers aim for a drop toward the main trendline. The 1-hour chart advises caution against chasing prices, suggesting opportunities near minor support at 23,965. Upcoming economic indicators like US PPI, Jobless Claims, and Retail Sales will be important, along with Fed comments following the recent US CPI data.Nasdaq and Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations
With the Nasdaq nearing 24,000, the key driver for derivatives traders is the strong anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The recent CPI data from July showed a 3.1% increase, confirming a cooling trend and reinforcing market expectations for monetary easing. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is now about a 75% chance of a 25-basis-point cut next month. This scenario—where the economy is strong yet the Fed takes a cautious approach—is very positive for growth assets. We saw a similar situation in 2019 when the Fed made a “mid-cycle adjustment,” cutting rates even in a non-recessionary environment, which led to further market gains. Therefore, the easiest path for the market seems to be upward, unless there’s an unexpected shift from policymakers. For bullish traders, jumping into the market at these record highs may not provide a good risk-to-reward balance. A smarter approach would be to wait for a pullback toward the minor trendline support around 23,800 to consider long positions, such as buying call options or selling puts. As the Nasdaq has already risen approximately 20% this year, being patient for a better entry point is essential. On the other hand, traders looking to hedge or bet on a downturn should watch for a significant break below the 4-hour trendline. This would signal weakening momentum and could be a prompt to buy put options. A confirmed break could lead to a larger correction toward the major daily trendline support around 22,400. In the coming days, we will monitor tomorrow’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and jobless claims for any signs of unexpected inflation or labor market issues. Friday’s retail sales and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data will also be key. Any notable discrepancies from expectations in this data may lead to a short-term adjustment in Fed actions before we gain more insights from Jackson Hole. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Bessent thinks a 50 basis point Fed rate cut and several future cuts are possible.
Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, mentioned that the Federal Reserve might consider cutting rates by 50 basis points. He believes current rates should actually be 150-175 basis points lower.
Bessent noted that if the data had been correct, the Fed might have made earlier rate cuts, possibly leading to a series of reductions. He also discussed the selection of the Fed Chair, suggesting a list of 10-11 candidates, while emphasizing the need for precise data.
