Liquidity issues overshadow previous demand trends, posing downside risks for silver markets, according to TDS.
Silver markets have recently changed from high demand to a liquidity crisis, peaking in the last week as metal flows return to London. While markets usually correct themselves, Daniel Ghali, Senior Commodity Strategist at TDS, warns that the recent silver breakout may not last, posing potential risks and outflows.
This change from demand boom to liquidity crisis seems to be resolving itself, with liquidity moving back to London markets. This situation could lead to the recent breakout failing and possible large-scale outflows. Although it may not mark the end of the Silver Squeeze saga, it likely concludes this chapter.
Future developments might depend on the decline of inventories in Shanghai and New York, or export controls like Section 232 tariffs that could make rebalancing harder. China’s cancellation of tax rebates on platinum raises concerns about disincentives for exporting essential minerals. Currently, it’s advised to resist the urge to invest out of fear of missing out, as the risk/reward balance in the Silver Squeeze has changed.
The silversqueeze we experienced in September has shifted from high demand to a liquidity crisis, but that pressure seems to be peaking. We are seeing metal flow back to London, with LBMA vaults reporting a net inflow of 5 million ounces last week, the first increase in three months. This self-correcting pattern is stabilizing the market.
As liquidity returns to London, we expect the recent breakout above $32 to fail, leading to notable downside risks. This feels similar to the failed squeeze attempt in early 2021, where prices quickly dropped after an initial spike. Therefore, traders should be cautious about chasing the rally and might consider using put options to protect against a possible drop toward the $26 support level.
The risk of large outflows is increasing, and the risk/reward outlook for bullish bets has clearly shifted. This is evident in the derivatives market, where open interest on COMEX silver futures has dropped by 8% since the peak on October 6th. This indicates that speculative long positions are being reduced.
This doesn’t mean the silversqueeze story is over, but this chapter is likely closing for now. A new chapter would require a significant reduction in inventories in Shanghai and New York, but currently, COMEX registered stocks remain steady at approximately 45 million ounces. For now, the easiest path seems to be downward, so giving in to FOMO would be a mistake.
Bearish momentum keeps WTI crude oil near five-month lows due to a strengthening US dollar
WTI Crude Oil prices are down, currently at about $56.63 per barrel. This marks a drop of over 1.0% today, approaching its lowest point since early May.
The stronger US Dollar is making oil more expensive for foreigners, which contributes to this decline. Traders are also anxious because China has reduced its crude storage flows this September, signaling a possible decrease in demand from the largest oil-consuming nation.
Future Projections and Market Influences
The International Energy Agency expects a “large surplus” by 2026 due to steady supply growth and falling demand from major economies. Additionally, ongoing US-China trade tensions impact market feelings, along with worries about the global shift towards renewable energy. Currently, WTI trades below both short- and long-term moving averages, indicating a bearish outlook. Support is found in the $54.00-$55.00 range. If prices drop below this, they could slide further to around $53.00. The $60.00 mark is a crucial resistance level; failure to reclaim it keeps the market sentiment negative. The Relative Strength Index near 30.5 signals that the market is oversold, but no recovery signs are present. On the other hand, the Average Directional Index at 28.6 suggests a strengthening downward trend.Opportunities in the Current Market
Given the clear downward trend in WTI crude, there are opportunities for traders who want to profit from decreasing or stable prices. With oil around $56.63, below its moving averages, it may be wise to consider shorting futures contracts or purchasing put options. The ongoing bearish momentum indicates that betting against the market could lead to profits in the near future. Concerns about Chinese demand are now backed by facts. The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 4.5% year-over-year drop in September crude imports. This slowdown from the world’s top oil importer suggests any price upticks will likely face selling pressure. We see smaller price surges as good chances to establish new bearish positions. On the supply side, worries also loom for any possible price recovery. The IEA’s forecast of a significant surplus building into 2026 is supported by current production levels. Last week, the EIA reported US crude output reached a record 13.9 million barrels per day. This strong non-OPEC supply adds pressure on prices. Additionally, the firm US Dollar, boosted by the Federal Reserve’s tough stance at its October 15th meeting, makes oil pricier for international buyers. This currency challenge adds extra pressure on oil. As long as the dollar stays strong, it will be tough for oil prices to rally. We are monitoring the key support area between $54.00 and $55.00, a level that has held firm twice this year. If prices break below this support, selling could increase. This situation makes put options with strike prices at $53.00 or lower an appealing strategy for November and December. For any bullish reversal to have a chance, prices must reclaim the $60.00 mark with significant trading volume. Until then, selling out-of-the-money call credit spreads with strike prices above $60.00 is a potentially effective strategy. This lets traders benefit from the expectation that $60.00 will act as a strong resistance level. Reflecting on past sharp declines in late 2018 and the massive drop in 2020 reminds us how quickly negative sentiment can spread. Even though current causes differ, the combination of reduced demand and excess supply creates a similar situation where downside risks increase. Caution is essential since these trends can change rapidly. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Biogen Inc. (BIIB) suggests a buying opportunity as its shares show signs of recovery.
Biogen Inc. (BIIB) was priced at $470 in 2021 but is now trading at around $140. Recently, BIIB broke above a major downward trend line from 2023, reaching a peak of $160 before pulling back to the breakout level. This pullback offers a chance for potential buyers to enter at the trendline, with technical analysis suggesting a possible target of $190.
In other market news, the Dow Jones jumped 550 points after an upgrade from Apple. Gold also rose by 2%, influenced by expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Geoff Kendrick from Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin could hit $500,000 by 2028, noting that core crypto fundamentals remain strong despite recent dips.
Currency pairs have experienced changes tied to economic news. The EUR/USD pair declined as the US Dollar strengthened. Similarly, the GBP/USD is under pressure with traders anticipating upcoming UK inflation numbers. The overall market is volatile, affected by geopolitical risks and trade issues, which also impact commodities like gold and silver. FXStreet provides forward-looking statements for informational purposes, urging thorough research before making financial decisions.
On October 20th, 2025, Biogen shares present a strong technical setup. The stock has broken a key downtrend line from 2023 and is now retesting that breakout point near $140. This backtrack offers a clear entry point for those looking to invest, anticipating a move upward.
For derivative traders, this suggests considering call options to benefit from the expected rise toward the $190 target. It’s advisable to look at options that expire in December 2025 or January 2026, focusing on $150 or $160 strike prices for a suitable balance of risk and reward. Recent options data indicates a significant increase in call volume for these expiration dates, suggesting others are betting on upward momentum.
This bullish outlook is supported by strengthening fundamentals as we approach Q3 earnings in early November. Sales for the Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi, a key driver for growth, are projected to exceed $650 million this quarter, a notable increase from earlier sales this year.
The biotech sector is also starting to show positive signs after a challenging 2023 and 2024. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) has risen nearly 5% this month, as the stabilized interest rate environment attracts more growth-oriented investments. This sector momentum could further boost Biogen’s stock.
An alternative, more cautious strategy is to implement a bull call spread, such as buying the December $150 call and selling the December $180 call. This strategy reduces the initial investment cost and sets a clear profit limit, making it a cost-effective way to bet on a rally. This approach is especially wise considering potential volatility around the earnings report.
However, we must remain aware of the risk that this breakout could fail, as it has in the past, notably after the Aduhelm disappointment in 2021. If the stock closes below $135 on a daily basis, it would invalidate the bullish outlook. This level indicates when to exit the position and minimize losses.
EUR/GBP rises to 0.8690 as UK fiscal uncertainty fuels cautious investor sentiment
Eurozone Fiscal Challenges
The Euro is currently facing challenges after S&P downgraded France’s credit rating from AA- to A+. This follows similar downgrades by Fitch and DBRS, which heightens concerns about fiscal stability in the Eurozone. Additionally, German producer prices (PPI) showed a monthly drop in September, indicating ongoing disinflation. Market participants are paying close attention to recent speeches by European Central Bank (ECB) officials Isabel Schnabel and Joachim Nagel. Their comments may provide valuable insights into the ECB’s policies during this unstable economic period. The Euro showed varied performance against major currencies. It performed best against the Canadian Dollar, indicating shifting currency strengths throughout the day. The modest rise in EUR/GBP to 0.8690 demonstrates a struggle between the two currencies, both facing significant challenges. The UK’s fiscal uncertainty mainly drives this, but the Euro is also held back by the recent French credit downgrade. This suggests that the EUR/GBP pair may remain volatile and within a limited range until clearer factors come into play. For us, the upcoming UK Autumn Budget and this week’s inflation data are vital events to watch. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast from September 2025, predicting UK debt-to-GDP to reach over 101.5%, has already rattled markets. We expect increased volatility around these UK-focused data releases.Considering Trading Strategies
We also need to consider the rising fiscal risks in the Eurozone, especially after France’s credit downgrade. The IMF forecasts that France’s public debt will exceed 112% of GDP by the end of 2025, putting pressure on the Euro. Furthermore, Germany’s disinflationary trend, highlighted by the Ifo Business Climate index dropping to a two-year low last month, limits the Euro’s strength against the Pound. Given these mixed pressures, taking a one-sided bet seems risky. Instead, we recommend trading based on anticipated volatility by using options strategies like a long straddle. This approach allows us to profit from significant price swings in either direction following the UK budget or inflation data without needing to predict the exact outcome. We recall the extreme volatility of the Pound following the UK’s “mini-budget” in 2022, which highlighted the currency’s sensitivity to fiscal news. The Bank of England’s cautious stance makes sense, especially since the September 2025 inflation rate of 2.4% is still above its target. This tight policy offers some support for the Pound but also raises the risk of sudden policy changes. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Annaly to disclose Q3 earnings after market close, generating interest in its stock
Annaly Capital Management Inc. will release its third-quarter 2025 results on October 22, after the market closes. The company is expected to report higher earnings and net interest income compared to last year.
In the previous quarter, Annaly exceeded earnings expectations, thanks to better average yields on interest-earning assets. However, the book value per share declined. Overall, Annaly has often surpassed estimates, with an average surprise of 2.19% in three of the past four quarters.
Net Interest Income Estimate
The consensus estimate for net interest income in the third quarter is $447 million, a significant increase from $13.4 million last year. Earnings are expected to be 72 cents per share, which is a 9.1% rise from the previous year. Even after the Federal Reserve cut rates in September, mortgage rates stayed stable. This stability has encouraged more refinancing and new loans. Annaly’s mortgage-backed securities (MBS) likely faced high prepayment rates, which would help with net premium amortization. Agency MBS spreads also tightened, which could enhance Annaly’s book value and service fees. Net servicing income is anticipated to rise by 15.6%. However, Annaly currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating it might not beat earnings expectations this time. In the third quarter, Annaly performed better than the industry and Orchid Island Capital, but lagged behind Arbor Realty Trust.Outlook for Derivative Positions
As Annaly prepares to report earnings on October 22, the setup for derivative positions is complicated. Despite the expected significant increase in net interest income, forecasting models do not suggest a high chance of an earnings surprise. This indicates that good news may already be reflected in the stock’s price, possibly limiting any major price increases. The broader interest rate environment also supports a positive outlook for book value. Following the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut on September 17, 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate barely changed, dropping slightly from 6.15% to 6.05% according to recent housing finance data. This stability has helped tighten agency MBS spreads, benefiting Annaly’s portfolio. In this context, the options market is experiencing increased premiums ahead of the earnings announcement. The 30-day implied volatility for NLY has risen to nearly 45%, significantly higher than its 52-week average of 35%. This situation makes selling volatility appealing, as strategies like short straddles or iron condors could profit if earnings meet expectations without major surprises. For traders who are optimistic about mortgage servicing rights and anticipate an upside surprise, a defined-risk strategy is advisable. The sharp declines in book value during the volatility of 2023 remind us to be cautious. A bull call spread would allow traders to take advantage of a modest price increase while limiting potential losses if the stock does not rise. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Rabobank’s analyst notes that EUR/SEK may weaken slightly due to a hawkish outlook from the Riksbank
The strength of the Swedish Krona (SEK) relies heavily on Sweden’s economy. According to Rabobank’s FX analyst, Sweden is one of the few G10 nations that won’t likely ease central bank policies in the coming year.
Rabobank believes the European Central Bank (ECB) has finished cutting rates, even though the market anticipates about 19 basis points of cuts by late next year. In contrast, bigger cuts are expected from central banks like the Fed, BoE, and RBA within a year.
The Riksbank’s strong position is supporting the SEK, which is already the best-performing G10 currency in 2023. Since late 2023, the EUR/SEK has been declining, reversing a long-term uptrend that began in 2013. There is a chance for EUR/SEK to drop further to around 10.60 over the next year, depending on stronger Swedish economic data.
Next week’s Swedish Q3 GDP and September retail sales will be crucial for indicating economic improvements. If the Riksbank does not cut rates further, it might be wise to sell EUR/SEK when it rises. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at EUR/SEK 11.08 could act as a barrier.
The Swedish Krona has a strong position because the Riksbank is expected to maintain interest rates in the coming year. Data from Statistics Sweden revealed that the CPIF inflation rate for September is steady at 2.3%, supporting this outlook. This is quite different from the European Central Bank, where markets foresee further easing, as the latest flash estimate for the HICP in October 2025 dropped to 1.8%.
However, the SEK’s continued strength largely depends on solid economic data from Sweden, as much of the Riksbank’s tough stance is already reflected in the current exchange rate. The market is eagerly waiting for next week’s Q3 GDP data after a modest 0.2% growth in Q2 2025. A positive surprise in this report would be needed for the Krona to gain significantly.
It’s important to note that the SEK has been performing well this year, and EUR/SEK has been on a downward trend since the end of 2023. A similar strong performance occurred from 2017 to 2018 before a notable correction, so it’s wise to exercise caution. This suggests that buying the Krona now might be chasing a trade that has already peaked.
Therefore, the strategy is to sell EUR/SEK on any upward movements, particularly as it nears technical resistance. For those trading derivatives, consider buying EUR/SEK put options or setting up bear call spreads when the pair approaches its 200-day moving average near 11.08. This tactic allows participation in the expected decline while managing the risk of a short-term price spike.
This strategy aligns with a potential moderate drop in EUR/SEK over the next year. Options traders could consider longer-dated contracts expiring in six to twelve months. This would prepare them for a possible move toward the 10.60 area if the Swedish economy remains strong.
Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM) leads the global gold mining industry with strong bullish momentum.
Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM) is a leading global gold producer with operations in North and South America, Africa, Australia, and Asia. Recent Elliott Wave analysis shows strong bullish momentum for its stock.
The monthly Elliott Wave chart for Newmont illustrates a strong bullish wave, indicating a potential breakout to a new all-time high. From a historical low of $12.75 in 2000, the stock reached wave (I) at $62.72 before pulling back to $15.39. Currently, wave (III) is underway, with wave I peaking at $86.37 and wave II retracted to $29.42. The rally is expected to continue as long as the price stays above $15.39.
Wave Progression
On the daily chart, the correction of wave II ended at $29.03, setting the stage for upward wave III. The first jump of wave (1) hit $58.72, followed by a dip in wave (2) to $36.86. As long as the stock remains above $29.03, it is ready for continued growth in wave III. In other news, recent market updates include Canadian inflation, a potential US government shutdown, and trade concerns. The article stresses the need for thorough research before making investment choices and clarifies that this content is not investment advice. Newmont Mining (NEM) is showing a strong bullish trend, and technical analysis suggests the stock is gearing up for a breakout to new highs. This trend is supported by recent economic conditions, highlighted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting inflation at 3.9%, which is higher than expected. Ongoing inflation is leading to increased investment in hard assets like gold. In the upcoming weeks, we should consider buying call options to capitalize on this upward momentum. A key level to monitor is the support at $29.03; as long as the stock remains above this, the bullish outlook stays intact. We can look at options expiring in December 2025 or January 2026 to allow enough time for this trade to develop.Favorable Environment
The current environment for gold is becoming increasingly favorable, benefiting major producers like Newmont. Spot gold is trading above $2,200 an ounce, a level not reached since early 2024. This comes as the US Dollar Index weakens following recent dovish comments from the Federal Reserve about monetary policy. This macro backdrop supports a potential rally in mining stocks. A defined-risk strategy, such as a bull call spread, might be a smart way to invest while managing costs. We can use the recent low of $36.86 to help structure these trades, as this level is expected to hold. Technical patterns suggest we are in the early stages of a major third-wave advance, which tends to be very strong. Looking back, a similar situation occurred between 2018 and 2020 when concerns over trade and economic growth raised gold prices, leading to a significant rally in NEM’s stock. The current nested impulse formation appears even more favorable than in the past. The chart indicates that as long as the price stays above the long-term support of $15.39, the overall trend remains strongly upward. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Core Scientific Inc. leads North American Bitcoin mining with efficient, large-scale operations.
Core Scientific Inc. plays a crucial role in North American Bitcoin mining, thanks to its efficient infrastructure. As interest in digital assets rises, Core Scientific’s strong performance suggests a positive trend for mining.
An analysis of the Elliott Wave pattern shows clear price movements and targets for Core Scientific. A zigzag correction, marked as Wave ((2)), hit $6.20 in April 2025, leading to new highs and ongoing bullish trends.
The company is now in Wave (3) of ((3)), needing at least three more upward movements. The stock is projected to rise to between $24.40 and $31.90, with a strong momentum wave currently underway.
The bullish trend is clear in the daily cycle. Investors should consider entering after corrections, such as the 3, 7, or 11-swing corrections, by using the Elliott Wave strategy. The Blue Box system effectively identifies these entry points, allowing investors to take advantage of the next upward movement.
Core Scientific’s bullish behavior comes in a robust crypto market. With Bitcoin staying above $115,000 in October 2025, conditions are favorable for efficient miners. This strong environment supports the notion that the stock’s upward movement is just beginning.
As the stock enters its most potent growth phase, call options could be a smart move, capitalizing on the anticipated rise toward the $24.40 to $31.90 target. This rally follows the April 2025 lows around $6.20. Traders might look at call options expiring in early 2026 to give this pattern time to fully develop.
For those preferring a more cautious strategy or seeking income, selling cash-secured puts during any dips is a wise choice. This strategy fits well with the idea of using pullbacks to build a position. A slight correction, normal even in strong trends, would provide a great opportunity to collect premiums at a comfortable strike price for owning shares.
This outlook is backed by robust industry fundamentals throughout 2025. The Bitcoin network’s hash rate has soared above 1,200 EH/s, yet profitability remains strong, with hash prices consistently over $120 per petahash per day. This indicates that efficient miners like CORZ are thriving in a very favorable revenue environment.
Looking back at previous cycles can shed light on how quickly these stocks can shift. After the 2020 halving, mining stocks saw explosive growth well into 2021, a pattern that seems to be repeating now. Current trends suggest that the most intense phase of this post-halving rally is still to come.
The Raw Material Price Index in Canada increased by 1.7% after a 0.6% decline.
Recent data shows that Canada’s Raw Material Price Index rose by 1.7% in September, a change from last month’s drop of 0.6%. This news comes amidst concerns about Canadian inflation, trade disagreements, and the possibility of a US government shutdown.
In the markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 550 points after Apple received an upgrade. Gold prices jumped by 2% as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts grew. Silver also rose as it became a safe haven amid fears of a US shutdown and geopolitical issues.
Currency Fluctuations
Currency pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD have seen fluctuations. The EUR/USD fell to 1.1640, close to daily lows, while GBP/USD tested support at around 1.3400. Gold remains just below $4,360, affected by ongoing US–China trade worries and anticipated shifts in Federal Reserve policy. In the world of cryptocurrencies, some analysts predict Bitcoin could hit $500,000 by 2028. However, a recent crash in the crypto market resulted in losses exceeding $19 billion in leveraged positions. Investors are expected to monitor US inflation data and ongoing US–China trade talks this week. These economic indicators are likely to heavily impact the markets in the upcoming days.Mixed Signals from the US
The US is sending mixed signals, with concerns about a shutdown alongside hope for a resolution. This situation is likely to increase market volatility, making long vega options strategies appealing. Historically, the VIX surged over 30% during the first week of the extended 2018-2019 shutdown, which could happen again soon. A softer US Dollar trend is still in play, driven by increasing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Fed Fund futures now indicate a better than 75% chance of a cut before the year ends, putting pressure on the dollar. This supports using derivatives to anticipate further declines in the dollar index (DXY). Gold’s rise to nearly $4,360 per ounce is a reaction to this uncertainty and the weak dollar. Having more than doubled since early 2020, gold remains a top safe-haven asset. Using call options on gold futures can help investors participate in potential gains while managing risk if market sentiment changes. The unexpected 1.7% increase in Canada’s Raw Material Price Index for September is an important data point to monitor. This inflationary pressure positions the Bank of Canada as more hawkish compared to the dovish Federal Reserve, offering a chance to bet on a stronger Canadian dollar against the US dollar using futures or options contracts. While EUR/USD and GBP/USD are experiencing slight pullbacks, attention will be on upcoming inflation data from Europe. The UK’s CPI report on Wednesday will be particularly important, especially since last month’s reading exceeded the Bank of England’s target at 3.1%. Another strong report could easily push GBP/USD back above the 1.3400 level, creating opportunities for short-term trades. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.In September, Canada’s industrial product prices rose by 0.8%, up from 0.5% the previous month.
In September, Canada’s industrial product prices rose by 0.8%, exceeding the expected 0.5% growth. This increase suggests trends that may affect various markets, especially in the industrial sectors.
The GBP/USD pair is fluctuating as it approaches the 1.3400 support level, reacting to the strengthening of the US Dollar just before Wall Street’s closing.
