USD/JPY is trading within a tight range as traders watch key issues like PM Ishiba’s political future, tariffs, and differences in US-Japan monetary policies. Currently, the pair sits at 147.73, and analysts are noting a tendency to sell during rallies. The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report could sway US Treasury yields, which may impact USD/JPY. PM Ishiba’s political standing is under scrutiny after the LDP’s performance in the Upper House elections, with growing calls for his resignation. Recent tariff discussions indicate that the US will eliminate stacking tariffs and cut car tariffs, refunding some excess charges. Daily momentum indicators are slightly bearish, with the RSI remaining steady, hinting at a short-term consolidation phase. Resistance levels are at 147.90 and 149.40/50, while support lies at 147.10 and 146.20. Political uncertainties and credit rating concerns could bolster the pair, but declining USD demand and narrowing yield gaps may offset this support. Currently, USD/JPY is hovering around 147.73, showing trader hesitation as they balance the strength of the US dollar with developments in Japan. We believe the best strategy for now is to sell on any strength approaching the upper range. The upcoming US CPI report is crucial. After the July 2025 CPI data indicated inflation at 3.4%, US 10-year Treasury yields rose to about 4.35%, providing solid support for the dollar. If inflation remains high, it could lead the pair to test the 147.90 resistance level. We are also watching the political climate in Tokyo, where PM Ishiba’s position appears shaky. With the LDP’s poor performance in the recent Upper House elections, discussions of a leadership challenge are increasing. Typically, political instability pressures the yen, helping to sustain USD/JPY. It’s essential to consider the broader context of monetary policy, which remains a primary driver. The Bank of Japan’s historic decision in March 2024 to end negative interest rates has led to minimal change, with the policy rate still at 0.10%. This significant gap between US and Japanese interest rates is a key reason the pair remains elevated. Given the flat RSI, we suggest range-trading strategies instead of betting on a major breakout. Selling short-term call options with a strike price near 147.90 might be a good way to collect premiums. Conversely, traders expecting a decline could buy put options if the pair dips below the 147.10 support. One factor that could strengthen the yen is the recent change in trade tariffs. The US’s decision to remove some tariffs on Japanese goods, including cars, is a positive sign for Japan’s export economy. This development acts against the dollar’s strength and partly explains why the pair has faced challenges in surpassing resistance levels.

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The USDCAD recently climbed above the 200-hour moving average at 1.37817 and the 100-day moving average at 1.37876. However, this upward movement quickly stalled, and the price slipped back below both averages. For those interested in selling USD or buying CAD, the 100-day moving average is a good point to consider short positions. If the price continues to drop, watch for targets like the 38.2% retracement at 1.37626 and the 100-hour moving average at 1.3754.

Focus On Retracement Levels

If the price decreases further, attention will shift to the 50% retracement as the next support level. Last week, the price fell below this 50% retracement but then bounced back, showing that similar reversals could happen again. Traders should be careful when breaks fail, as they may not bring sustained momentum. If the price rises above the 100-day moving average, it’s a sign of a possible change in trend and requires risk reassessment. As of today, August 11, 2025, the USDCAD pair displays a clear weakness. Its attempt to rise above the 100-day moving average at 1.37876 has failed, indicating that sellers are gaining control. This rejection at a crucial technical level suggests that the recent upward momentum has likely stalled. This trend aligns with market fundamentals, as West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices have strengthened, trading above $85 a barrel. A robust oil market tends to support the Canadian dollar, putting downward pressure on the USDCAD exchange rate and reinforcing the expectation for further declines.

Opportunities For Derivative Traders

Recent US economic data from July 2025 shows a slowdown in both inflation and job growth. This has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve might pause its interest rate hikes for the year. A less aggressive Fed typically weakens the US dollar, bolstering the bearish outlook for this currency pair. For derivative traders, this offers a solid chance to establish short positions or buy put options in the coming weeks. The 100-day moving average now serves as a strong resistance level to trade against, providing a clear point to manage risk. As long as the price stays below 1.37876, the trend seems likely to head lower. The initial downside target is the 38.2% retracement level at 1.37626. If this level is breached, the next support zone is near the 100-hour moving average at 1.3754. If selling pressure increases, the 50% retracement level will be the next logical target. We should remember market history; earlier this summer, a similar breakdown below the 50% retracement quickly reversed. Watch for failed moves as a key technical pattern. If buyers suddenly reappear and push the price back above the 100-day moving average, it would nullify the bearish outlook. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Today’s analysis focuses on NVDA stock movements using Order Flow Intel, highlighting market sentiment and informed trading strategies. Following the Order Flow Intel methods from InvestingLive.com, the stock opened at $181.50, dipped to $180.42, and stabilized around $182.20 by midday. However, it faced a sharp drop to $179.12 during the trading session before closing at $181.67, indicating ongoing selling pressure. Order flow and delta metrics show strong selling dominance in the morning, as seen with the negative cumulative delta. Midday buying attempts quickly faded, showing a lack of institutional backing. The last hour before the market closed showed significant sell-side pressure, hinting that it was driven by institutional selling rather than retail traders. This observation aligns with price movements, offering insights into the market’s dynamics. The NVDA stock analysis indicates that weak institutional activity combined with heavy selling may lead to retests of the $179.00 level. To recover above $183, positive delta changes are necessary. The analysis uses real-time order flow, unique AI insights, and price action context. InvestingLive.com helps traders by signaling early institutional activities and warning against liquidity traps, though independent research and risk management are still encouraged. For those considering selling, Friday’s VWAP at $182.41 is highlighted as a notable target area. We see that sellers are leading NVDA this morning, August 11, 2025. The order flow consistently shows a negative delta, pointing to aggressive selling likely from large institutions. This weakness suggests that small rallies may not be sustainable. In light of this selling pressure, if the stock dips below the $181.00 mark, it may retest support around $179.00 or even lower. Derivative traders might think about buying put options to take advantage of this potential decline, as the current setup makes buying call options quite risky. This perspective is reinforced by broader market concerns following the strong July 2025 jobs report, reviving fears of another Federal Reserve rate hike in September. We witnessed similar pressure on high-growth tech stocks during the 2022 tightening cycle. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.35%, its highest point this year, making growth stock valuations less appealing. Additionally, there are new reports about possible U.S. export controls on next-gen AI accelerators. This fundamental challenge aligns with the institutional selling we’re seeing in the order flow. The broader semiconductor sector has also weakened, with the SOXX index declining 6% since late July 2025. For those seeking income, selling out-of-the-money call spreads with strikes safely above the $183 resistance level could be a good strategy. This would yield profits if the stock remains below that crucial technical level in the coming weeks. Friday’s volume-weighted average price around $182.41 further confirms this area as a strong selling zone. Implied volatility for NVDA options has been increasing, recently reaching a three-month high, indicating that the market is expecting larger price fluctuations. While this leads to higher option premiums, the clear bearish order flow shows that the path of least resistance is likely down. The put-to-call ratio for NVDA has also climbed to 1.15, the highest level since the last earnings report, reflecting a clear shift in market sentiment.

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South Africa’s manufacturing production index increased by 1.9% year-on-year in June, exceeding the expected growth of 1%. This uptick indicates healthy progress in the country’s manufacturing sector. The EUR/USD dropped to around 1.1600 due to a stronger US Dollar, partly stemming from hopes of a lasting US-China trade truce. Likewise, GBP/USD fell to about 1.3420, as traders await new data releases.

Gold Price Movements

Gold prices faced pressure, decreasing to $3,350 per troy ounce. This decline followed optimism related to US-Russia talks on Ukraine and ongoing discussions about extending the US-China trade agreement. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4%, hinting that the easing cycle might soon come to an end. There are concerns about ongoing inflation, which remains above the target rate. Foreign exchange trading carries significant risks, including the potential loss of your entire investment. Trading on margin requires careful thought about your investment goals and risk tolerance. It’s wise to seek professional advice before engaging in foreign exchange trading. Looking back from August 11, 2025, that 1.9% rise in South Africa’s manufacturing now feels distant. Since the 2024 national elections, we’ve experienced notable volatility. Recent data for June 2025 shows only a 2.2% year-on-year increase, indicating that anyone betting on the South African Rand should remain cautious due to ongoing economic challenges.

Currency Trading Dynamics

The EUR/USD level of 1.1600 now seems unreachable. Currently, it hovers around 1.0850, as the US Federal Reserve has been slower to cut interest rates than the European Central Bank. Since US core inflation stayed stubborn at 2.8% last month, we expect the Dollar to remain strong against the Euro. The GBP/USD, once trading around 1.3420, now struggles to maintain the 1.2650 level. This is primarily due to the Bank of England’s ongoing fight against high services inflation, which exceeds 4% even as the economy slows. Gold’s drop to $3,350 per ounce takes us back to its pullback from earlier record highs. Those peaks were fueled by large gold purchases from central banks in 2024 amid heightened geopolitical tensions. As gold now trades near $3,100, we question whether the optimism that caused the previous drop will linger as inflation gradually eases. The Bank of England’s decision to cut rates to 4% while signaling an end to further reductions has come true, with the cut occurring in the second quarter of 2025. However, the warning about ongoing inflation also proved accurate, creating challenges for traders. This uncertainty regarding the Bank’s future moves suggests more volatility ahead in UK interest rate markets and the Pound. It’s crucial to remember that foreign exchange and derivative trading involve significant risks, including the potential loss of your entire investment. Trading on margin necessitates careful consideration of your investment strategies and risk tolerance. We strongly recommend consulting with a professional before getting involved in these markets. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Recent movements in the EUR/USD suggest it will trade between 1.1610 and 1.1670. Over the long term, the Euro is likely to trend upwards, but reaching 1.1720 is still uncertain. In the past 24 hours, the Euro hit a high of 1.1698 last week. It traded quietly between 1.1628 and 1.1679 before settling at 1.1639, which is a drop of 0.22%. Looking ahead at the next one to three weeks, there’s a chance of an upward trend if the ‘strong support’ level at 1.1585 holds. Recently, the EUR/USD has remained stable around 1.1650, despite a quiet market. The US Dollar’s weak performance comes from a better risk sentiment, partly due to expected talks between US and Russian leaders. Additionally, traders are closely watching upcoming US CPI data. The GBP/USD pair is steady above 1.3450, buoyed by different monetary policy expectations from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. At the same time, gold prices have fallen slightly due to positive global risk sentiment connected to US-Russia discussions. In other financial news, the Bank of England recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4%. However, officials believe this easing cycle might soon end due to ongoing inflation concerns. Given the EUR/USD’s recent stability, we see a chance in this quiet market. Since the pair is holding its ground, we suggest selling out-of-the-money puts with a strike price below the key support level at 1.0750. This strategy allows us to collect premiums while betting that the pair won’t fall significantly in the weeks ahead. The US Dollar is weakening after US inflation data from July 2025 showed a milder-than-expected increase of 3.1% year-over-year. This has raised the likelihood that the Federal Reserve might think about an interest rate cut this year. For us, this indicates that options strategies betting on a weaker dollar— or at least limited upside—are wise. Reflecting on the past, we remember sharp market changes in late 2023 when traders priced in Fed rate cuts that took a long time to happen. This history cautions us that any Euro upward trend may be slow. Therefore, we are considering bull call spreads on the EUR/USD, which would profit from a gradual rise while reducing our risk if the rally stalls. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD shows strength, consistently trading above 1.2700. This is mainly due to differences in policy between the Bank of England, which kept rates at 5.25% amid stubborn services inflation, and a Federal Reserve that appears more dovish. We see this gap as a reason to stay bullish on the pound against the dollar. Gold is also gaining support, moving towards $2,350 per ounce. The metal benefits from the potential for lower US interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding US-Russia diplomatic efforts. We believe buying call options on gold is a strong way to take advantage of potential further gains from this sentiment.

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US stock futures are slightly rising, with S&P futures up by 6.05 points. NASDAQ is expected to gain 8.75 points, and the Dow is up about 65 points. US companies have announced record share buybacks totaling $983.6 billion this year, and it may surpass $1.1 trillion. This trend is led by tech companies like Apple and Alphabet, along with banks like JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley. Companies prefer buybacks over capital investment because of strong earnings, tax advantages, and extra cash amid uncertain trade policies. While buybacks can boost earnings and stock prices, there are worries about inflated valuations and a focus on short-term gains.

US Companies and Share Buybacks

AMD and Nvidia will pay a 15% fee on certain chip sales to China, as ordered by the US Government. As a result, AMD shares fell by 1.74%, while Nvidia’s dropped by 0.41%. President Trump is set to meet with Intel’s CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, today. Last week, Trump called for Tan’s resignation because of his ties to China and threatened the Intel Chip Act funds citing national security concerns. Intel shares have climbed by 2.56%. The wave of share buybacks, expected to reach $1.1 trillion, provides strong support for the broader market. Last year, buybacks were nearly $806 billion, making this year’s increase a significant cushion against major downturns. For traders in derivatives, selling out-of-the-money put options on indices like the S&P 500 (SPY) could be a good strategy to earn premiums. This large corporate buying power helps explain why the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has stayed relatively low, hovering in the mid-teens, even amid geopolitical tensions. This stable environment favors strategies that benefit from market stability. However, this calmness at the index level hides considerable turmoil within specific sectors.

Government Fees on Semiconductor Sales

The new 15% fee on certain AMD and Nvidia chip sales to China adds uncertainty to the semiconductor industry. This impacts profitability and indicates more aggressive government action, which often leads to sharp price swings. We should prepare for higher-than-normal volatility in the semiconductor sector for the coming weeks. Given the political risks affecting chip stocks, buying options that profit from significant price movements is worth considering. For instance, following the 2022 export controls, the semiconductor ETF (SOXX) saw its volatility soar over 40%, creating great opportunities for options traders. Thus, purchasing straddles or strangles on AMD and Nvidia appears to be a sensible move. The situation with Intel presents a classic binary event, where the stock could shift dramatically based on a single meeting’s outcome. The current implied volatility for Intel’s weekly options is high, reflecting this uncertainty. Traders can use short-dated options to make targeted bets on the outcome, as the stock is likely to respond more strongly than the broader market. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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EURUSD has dropped to new session lows, nearing an important technical point at the 50% retracement level from the July 1 peak, which is at 1.16098. Earlier, the pair fell below its 100-hour moving average of 1.16312, creating a short-term downward trend. If it breaks below 1.16098, we might see movement towards the 200-hour moving average at 1.15648. The range between 1.16098 and Wednesday’s high of 1.1698 has been a focal point recently, raising questions about whether sellers can break through this zone to maintain their momentum.

Emerging Weakness in EURUSD

As of August 11, 2025, EURUSD shows significant weakness. It is testing a key support level at 1.1610, a major battleground for traders. Staying below the 100-hour moving average near 1.1631 keeps the immediate outlook firmly negative. This technical pressure is supported by differing economic data from early August 2025. Recent reports indicate the US CPI inflation for July slightly exceeded expectations at 3.4%, while the latest Non-Farm Payrolls added a solid 210,000 jobs. Meanwhile, German industrial production figures from last week suggest a slowdown in the Eurozone’s core economy. The gap in policies between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank appears to be growing, contributing to this trend. Strong US data allows the Fed to maintain its strict stance, while weak Eurozone data has the ECB suggesting a possibly softer approach later this year. We witnessed a similar scenario in late 2024, which led to a period of dollar strength.

Suggested Bearish Strategies

For derivative traders, this environment suggests that bearish strategies on EURUSD may be advantageous in the coming weeks. Buying put options with strike prices below 1.1600 could be a direct way to prepare for a dip toward the 200-hour moving average at 1.1565. The defined risk of options is particularly helpful, considering the potential for sudden, data-driven reversals. Risk management is essential here, as the 1.1610 level might still hold and cause a bounce. Traders taking short positions should think about placing stop-loss orders just above the 100-hour moving average around 1.1635. A strong move back above that level would invalidate the current bearish outlook. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Market Analysis

The Australian Dollar’s upcoming outlook is affected by this week’s events, including a meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Australian wage price index, labor market data, and shifts in the US dollar. Right now, the AUD stands at 0.6520, with hints of a possible rate cut from the RBA due to weaker second-quarter economic indicators. Tomorrow’s RBA meeting could be crucial, as there’s a prediction of a 62 basis point rate cut for the rest of the year. However, it remains uncertain if the RBA will take a more cautious stance. Additionally, Thursday’s labor market data is significant. The daily chart shows a decline in bearish momentum, with resistance around 0.6550 and support levels at 0.6500 and 0.6430. Remember, all information comes with risks and uncertainties. It is for informational purposes only and should not be seen as buy or sell advice. Always conduct thorough personal research before making investment choices. Investing carries the risk of substantial losses, and individuals are responsible for their decisions. Given the current situation, we are closely monitoring the Australian Dollar at 0.6520 ahead of tomorrow’s RBA meeting. Market expectations are already reflecting potential cuts, particularly after July 2025’s second-quarter inflation was lower than expected at 3.1%. This has put ongoing pressure on the currency throughout the month. With some uncertainty about the RBA’s stance, we are considering strategies to benefit from increased volatility. Buying option straddles or strangles lets us take advantage of any significant movement, whether the RBA indicates an imminent cut or surprisingly decides to hold rates steady. We noticed similar sharp price movements after RBA meetings in 2023 and 2024.

Trends and Strategies

For those with a bearish outlook, buying put options with strike prices below the 0.6500 support level is a straightforward way to respond to a dovish outcome. This perspective is supported by a strong US dollar, which has remained robust since the Federal Reserve’s last month’s message about maintaining higher interest rates for longer. If Thursday’s Australian jobs report shows unemployment rising from last month’s 4.3%, it could push the AUD down towards the 0.6430 level. On the other hand, if there is an unexpected upward surprise, we need to be ready. If Thursday’s wage price index looks strong or if unemployment unexpectedly drops, it may prompt the market to quickly rethink its rate cut predictions. In such a case, call options with a strike just above the 0.6550 resistance level could offer strong leverage for a sharp rise. In the coming weeks, it’s essential to focus on managing risks around these important data releases. Short-term derivative positions can help capture the initial price fluctuations from the RBA and labor data. The overall trend for the rest of the year will likely be influenced by the growing interest rate difference between Australia and the United States. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Economic Events and Expectations

This week highlights two key events: the US inflation report on Tuesday and a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday. The core CPI for July is expected to rise by 0.3% from the previous month and 3.0% over the year, which is likely to support a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with a 90% chance priced in. A prediction of a 0.4% monthly rise in core CPI might change how the data is interpreted, but it is not likely to impact the chances of a rate cut. The US Dollar may get temporary support from Tuesday’s CPI release, but this could lessen as other economic indicators reveal weaknesses in the labor market and overall activity. For the US-Russia summit, there is an expectation that Putin will try to gain concessions from Ukraine regarding a ceasefire. Trump has leverage through potential sanctions and economic pressure on Russia’s trade partners. Crude oil prices have decreased by 8% since August, showing cautious optimism about a possible truce, while Ukraine’s 10-year bonds have rallied by 2%. This week’s economic data—like the NFIB survey, PPI data, and retail sales—along with communication from the Federal Reserve, will be important for the dollar. Markets are likely to remain quiet before the CPI report. We are now observing the long-term impacts of events from last summer. Looking back at 2024, the mild inflation data did pave the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. This shift away from strict policy has shaped our current market environment.

Market Shifts and Volatility

The summit between Trump and Putin led to a fragile ceasefire, which temporarily calmed the markets, similar to the initial 8% drop in crude prices at that time. However, that truce is now weakening as disputes over Black Sea grain shipments take center stage. As a result, WTI crude has rebounded strongly in 2025, nearing $85 a barrel. The situation has dramatically changed, as the easier inflation comparisons are now over. Core CPI for July 2025 has risen to a strong 0.4%, raising the annual rate and challenging the Fed’s more relaxed approach. This has pushed the US Dollar Index (DXY) to about 106.5, a six-month high, causing ripples in equity markets. With this renewed uncertainty, volatility is a key focus. The VIX index has risen from summer lows of 15 to around 19, and we anticipate it may continue to climb as the market evaluates the Fed’s next steps. We believe that buying call options on the US dollar is a smart way to hedge against a more aggressive Fed stance. As geopolitical tensions rise again, the fragile ceasefire established last year is now a significant factor in oil market volatility. The market is anxious, and any escalation could lead to a sharp price spike from these already high levels. This uncertainty makes long straddles on crude oil futures an intriguing strategy, betting on a major price movement in either direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The USDCHF has broken above its recent highs, turning sellers into buyers. Last week, the price reached around 0.8090 from Wednesday to Friday, with strong buying momentum pushing it up to 0.8116. This price level matches last week’s high on Tuesday. If this level is crossed, prices could rise further to a range between 0.81468 and 0.8155, and then potentially up to the August 1 peak of 0.81703.

The Impact Of New Tariffs

The August peak was marked by President Trump’s announcement of a 39% tariff on most Swiss exports, starting August 7, 2025. These tariffs impact sectors like luxury watches, machinery, and precision tools, but exclude pharmaceuticals. A technical analysis video on the USDCHF discussed these levels and developments in detail. We see a clear upward trend in USDCHF past the 0.8090 resistance level. This indicates that sellers have stepped back, and buyers are now in control. The main focus is on breaking last Tuesday’s high of 0.8116. This movement is primarily driven by the new 39% US tariff on Swiss goods that took effect on August 7. The policy targets Switzerland’s key industries, such as watchmaking and machinery, putting pressure on the Swiss franc. The market is anticipating significant economic challenges for Switzerland.

Strategies and Market Reactions

Recent data shows the Swiss manufacturing PMI for July unexpectedly fell to 44.2, indicating a sharp contraction. This is the lowest reading since the start of the 2020 pandemic, suggesting that industries are preparing for a decline in US orders. Markets are now considering a 75% likelihood of an emergency rate cut by the Swiss National Bank. On the other hand, the US dollar remains strong following the robust jobs report from August 1, which revealed over 250,000 jobs added. This strength, combined with the weakness of the Swiss franc, creates strong upward momentum for the pair. Implied volatility on USDCHF options has increased by 20% in the past week, reflecting greater uncertainty. Given this momentum, buying call options could be a good way to benefit from further upward movement. Targeting strikes above the current price, such as 0.8150 or 0.8175, could provide significant leverage if the pair continues upward towards the August 1 high. Consider options that expire in late September or October to allow time for the trend to unfold. For those with a moderately bullish view, selling out-of-the-money put options with a strike price around 0.8050 could be a good strategy to collect premium. This level should now provide strong support following the breakout. Alternatively, a bull call spread could help define risk by buying a call and selling a higher-strike call at the same time. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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