Vietnam’s headline CPI rose to 4.65% year-on-year in March 2026, up from an average of 2.94% in January to February. Higher energy costs were cited as a driver, taking inflation above the State Bank of Vietnam’s 4.5% target. Inflation was described as supply-driven rather than demand-driven. The focus was placed on the State Bank of Vietnam’s policy stance as inflation was expected to rise further in the months ahead and move further above 4.5%.

Policy Rate Outlook

UOB projected no policy tightening in response to the supply-led rise in prices. It forecast the State Bank of Vietnam’s refinance rate would remain at 4.50% through 2026. The article stated it was created with the help of an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. With inflation jumping to 4.65% in March 2026, we see a clear divergence between rising prices and a stationary central bank policy. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is expected to hold its refinance rate at 4.50% because the inflation is supply-driven. This creates specific opportunities in interest rate derivatives. For the coming weeks, we believe the front end of the interest rate swap curve is mispriced if it reflects any chance of a rate hike. We should consider receiving fixed on 1-year and 2-year VND swaps, betting that short-term rates will remain anchored at 4.50%. This position benefits from a policy stance that looks through the current inflation spike, a view supported by the government’s focus on maintaining economic growth, which stood at a healthy 5.66% in Q1 2026.

Cross Asset Trading Implications

This policy stance, however, likely puts pressure on the Vietnamese Dong, as high inflation without a corresponding rate hike erodes its real yield. This is a notable shift from the currency’s relative stability through much of 2025. We see value in positioning for a weaker VND by buying USD/VND non-deliverable forwards (NDFs), as the exchange rate has already crept up to around 25,500 this past week. The combination of stable, low borrowing costs and strong growth is supportive for equities. The VN-Index is already up over 5% year-to-date, and a dovish SBV should reinforce this positive sentiment. Traders could look at buying call options on the index or related ETFs to capitalize on further upside. Given the uncertainty, volatility itself presents a trading opportunity. If inflation continues to accelerate well beyond 5% in the second quarter, the SBV may be forced to reconsider its position, leading to a sharp market repricing. A long volatility strategy, such as buying a straddle on the USD/VND, could pay off if the central bank’s resolve is tested. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) moved down towards 100.00 on Monday as hopes for a US–Iran ceasefire framework reduced demand for safe-haven flows. This came alongside US President Donald Trump’s ultimatum linked to the Strait of Hormuz. US ISM Services PMI eased to 54 in March from 56.1, while prices paid rose sharply. Markets focused on the risk that higher energy costs could add to inflation.

Dollar Performance Against Major Currencies

The US Dollar was strongest against the Japanese Yen, while it fell against other majors: EUR +0.27%, GBP +0.32%, JPY +0.03%, CAD +0.24%, AUD +0.41%, NZD +0.45%, CHF +0.26%. For USD itself, changes were: EUR -0.27%, GBP -0.32%, JPY -0.03%, CAD -0.24%, AUD -0.41%, NZD -0.45%, CHF -0.26%. EUR/USD traded near 1.1550 and GBP/USD near 1.3240, with both supported by a softer Dollar. USD/JPY was volatile near 159.70, with attention on 160.00. WTI crude stayed above $112.00, supported by Hormuz disruption and supply risks, while OPEC+ agreed to lift May output. Gold held near $4,660. Key events include EU PMIs and Sentix, US Durable Goods Orders, Canada Ivey PMI, Japan earnings and current account, and the RBNZ rate decision, followed by US PCE, GDP, jobless claims, and US CPI later in the week.

Comparing Last Year With Today

We should remember that this time last year, in April 2025, hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire pushed the US Dollar Index down toward 100.00 as safe-haven demand faded. Today, the dollar is significantly stronger, trading above 104, reflecting a different set of global risks and a more resolute Federal Reserve. This contrast from last year shows how quickly geopolitical narratives can shift currency valuations. The events of April 2025 saw WTI crude oil prices elevated above $112 a barrel due to the Strait of Hormuz disruption. While current tensions in the Red Sea are supporting oil, prices today are more subdued around $85, showing the market is not pricing in a direct superpower confrontation. Still, we see supply tightening, with recent EIA data showing a 1.5 million barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories, which could keep prices volatile. Last year’s jump in the ISM services prices paid component highlighted how quickly energy shocks feed inflation. We are seeing a similar pattern now, with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showing inflation remains sticky at 3.2% year-over-year. This persistent inflation is why the Fed is holding interest rates higher for longer, supporting the dollar, unlike its more “cautious” stance in 2025. The key lesson from last year is that headline risk can cause sharp reversals, making this a challenging environment for directional bets. We should consider buying volatility through options, as sudden news of either escalation or de-escalation in current conflicts could trigger significant price swings in oil and currency pairs. Straddles on WTI futures or EUR/USD could be an effective way to position for a large move, regardless of the direction. We also saw the USD/JPY pair flirt with the 160.00 level in April 2025, prompting intense speculation about intervention from Japanese authorities. We are in a similar territory again today, with the pair above 151, and Japanese officials have already increased their verbal warnings. The playbook from last year suggests that derivative traders should be wary of holding large long positions and could use put options to hedge against a sudden, sharp strengthening of the yen. Risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar rallied hard on the 2025 ceasefire news, demonstrating their sensitivity to shifts in global risk appetite. This shows that any signs of easing tensions in today’s conflicts could cause a similar spike in the Aussie. We should therefore watch AUD/USD options for opportunities to position for a rapid increase in risk-on sentiment in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Vietnam’s headline CPI rose to 4.65% year-on-year in March 2026, up from an average of 2.94% in January to February. The rise was linked to higher energy costs. The 4.65% inflation rate was above the State Bank of Vietnam’s 4.5% target. Inflation was expected to increase further in the months ahead and to stay above 4.5%.

Central Bank Likely To Stay On Hold

The report said the price rise was driven by supply factors rather than demand. It forecast no policy tightening in response. UOB projected that the SBV would keep its refinance rate unchanged at 4.50% through 2026. The article stated it was produced with the help of an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Given the new inflation data from March 2026, we see a clear signal from the central bank to remain on hold. The jump in inflation to 4.65% is notable because it breaches the 4.5% target, but the view is that this is driven by supply issues, not a booming domestic demand problem. This suggests the State Bank of Vietnam will prioritize economic stability over fighting this specific price shock. This policy stance is consistent with what we observed in the past, such as during the commodity price spikes in 2025. Back then, the SBV also held rates steady, avoiding a policy-induced slowdown and allowing supply chains to normalize on their own. We expect a similar playbook now, which suggests short-term interest rate markets may have overpriced the risk of a rate hike.

Trading Implications For Rates And Currency

For traders in the coming weeks, this means any remaining bets on a near-term rate hike should be unwound, likely putting downward pressure on shorter-term Vietnamese Dong interest rate swaps. With the refinance rate firmly anchored at 4.50%, receiving fixed on 1-year or 2-year swaps could be an attractive position. The market currently shows a slight premium for hikes which we expect will disappear. This stability in local policy rates, however, creates a divergence with other economies, potentially weighing on the currency. The Vietnamese Dong could face depreciation pressure against the US dollar, especially as the US Federal Reserve has held its own rates firm amid resilient economic data. The USD/VND has already climbed to 25,580, a 1.1% increase since the beginning of 2026, and this trend may continue. Consequently, volatility in the USD/VND currency pair is likely to pick up. Traders should consider buying call options on the USD/VND to hedge against or profit from further Dong weakness. The expectation of a passive central bank in the face of rising inflation and a stable Fed makes further currency depreciation a significant risk. This entire situation is supported by Vietnam’s strong economic fundamentals, with GDP growth hitting 6.1% in 2025, largely driven by exports. The SBV is reluctant to tighten policy and risk harming this growth engine, especially when inflation is being imported through factors like global energy costs. Global oil prices have, for example, risen over 10% since January 2026, a factor completely outside the SBV’s control. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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WTI crude oil prices moved sharply, with May futures jumping above $115 before easing to near $112. Spot WTI traded near $104, down 0.2%, after a range between about $101 and $106. The gap between spot and front-month futures points to steep backwardation and a near-term delivery premium linked to a Tuesday deadline. WTI futures rose nearly 12% last Thursday, while spot prices stayed well below the futures level.

Geopolitical Ultimatum And Strait Risk

Donald Trump said the US would target Iranian power plants and bridges by midnight Tuesday if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by 8 pm Eastern Time. Iran rejected the ultimatum and said the Strait would reopen only after reparations for war damage. The Strait has been largely closed to commercial shipping since late February, with an estimated 17 to 18 million barrels per day affected. A Pakistan-brokered 45-day ceasefire plan, passed via Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey, was also rejected by Iran. US crude inventories rose by 5.5 million barrels for the week ending 27 March, and OPEC+ approved a 206K barrels-per-day output increase for April. Goldman Sachs put the risk premium at $14 to $18 per barrel. We remember the extreme volatility around this time last year, when the standoff with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz caused a massive spike in crude futures. The market went into extreme backwardation, with the May 2025 contract trading near $115 while spot prices struggled to hold $104. That memory of a $15 geopolitical risk premium appearing almost overnight should keep us cautious. Unlike the acute crisis in March 2025, today’s market is dealing with a slower grind of competing factors. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, they haven’t shut down a major transit route. Recent data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories of 2.7 million barrels, suggesting softer demand than anticipated. This inventory build contrasts with supply-side discipline, as OPEC+ has just agreed to extend its voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day through the second quarter. This creates a tense balance where fundamental weakness is being propped up by managed supply cuts. WTI crude is currently trading around $85 a barrel, significantly lower than last year’s crisis peak but still elevated historically.

Positioning With Defined Risk Options

Given this setup, outright directional bets are risky in the coming weeks. The memory of last year’s sudden price explosion means any escalation in the Middle East could trigger a rapid rally, making short positions dangerous. Therefore, we should focus on options strategies to define our risk, such as buying call spreads to bet on a modest rise or purchasing puts to protect against a sudden drop if demand fears take over. The elevated implied volatility in options contracts reflects the market’s anxiety, but it is a price worth paying for protection. We can use strategies like a straddle or strangle if we anticipate a large price move but are unsure of the direction. This allows us to profit from the volatility itself, which seems to be the only certainty in this market. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold fell in North American trading on Monday after reaching $4,706, as prospects of a US–Iran ceasefire weakened. Reports said the US military was preparing for possible strikes on energy targets in Iran, and Iran rejected ceasefire proposals for a 45-day pause backed by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey. XAU/USD was at $4,652, with WTI up 1.40% to $113.64 per barrel. The US Dollar Index was back above 100.00 and down 0.19%, while the 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.337%.

Markets Brace For Escalation

US President Donald Trump said Iran “can be taken out in one night, might be Tuesday night”. He set April 7 at 8:00 PM ET as the time for action if Iran does not meet US demands, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. US data were mixed, with ISM Services PMI at 54 in March versus 56.1 and forecasts of 55, while prices paid rose to 70.7, the highest since October 2022. Nonfarm Payrolls rose 178K versus 60K expected, unemployment edged down from 4.4% to 4.3%, and markets now expect steady Fed rates all year. Technically, resistance is near $4,700 and support sits at the 100-day SMA of $4,639, then $4,600, $4,553 and $4,500. Above $4,700, levels include the 20-day SMA at $4,755 and $4,800. Given the high tension around the potential US strikes on Iran, we must be prepared for extreme volatility, especially with the deadline set for this evening. A military conflict would almost certainly cause oil prices to surge, likely well past the current $113 per barrel, as we saw during the 1990 Gulf War build-up when prices more than doubled in three months. This makes long positions in crude oil derivatives, like call options on WTI, an attractive way to trade the immediate risk of escalation.

Positioning For Volatility

The situation with gold is more complex, as it is caught between geopolitical safe-haven demand and the headwind of a strong US Dollar. Rising oil is fueling inflation fears, evidenced by the ISM prices paid component hitting its highest level since we were dealing with the inflation spike back in October 2022, yet the dollar’s strength is capping gold’s upside. We should consider options strategies like straddles to play the expected sharp move in gold without betting on the direction, especially as the Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) has likely pushed above 25. Strong US economic data, particularly last week’s nonfarm payrolls report which showed the unemployment rate at 4.3%, has cemented the view that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady. This supports the US Dollar and puts pressure on non-yielding assets like gold, meaning any rally in bullion may be short-lived if the immediate Iran threat de-escalates. We’re watching the US 10-year Treasury yield, which at 4.337% offers a competitive return against holding gold. From a technical standpoint, gold’s failure to hold the $4,700 level is a bearish signal, with the next key support at the 100-day moving average around $4,639. A break below this level could trigger further selling, making put options or bearish put spreads on XAU/USD a potential strategy for the coming weeks. However, we must remain nimble, as any confirmed military action could override these technicals and cause a flight to safety that sends gold sharply higher despite dollar strength. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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WTI crude oil prices moved sharply, with May futures briefly above $115 before easing to about $112. Spot crude stayed near $104, down 0.2%, after trading between about $101 and close to $106. Donald Trump set an 8 pm Eastern Time Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with threats to destroy power plants and bridges. Iran rejected the ultimatum and said the strait would reopen only after reparations are paid.

Strait Of Hormuz Supply Shock

The Strait of Hormuz has been largely closed to most commercial shipping since late February after US and Israeli strikes on Iran. This has removed an estimated 17 to 18 million barrels per day from normal transit flows. WTI futures rose nearly 12% last Thursday. A Pakistan-brokered 45-day ceasefire proposal was also rejected by Iran, after messages were relayed by foreign ministers from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey. The EIA said US crude inventories rose by 5.5 million barrels in the week ending March 27. OPEC+ approved a 206K barrels-per-day output increase for April, while Goldman Sachs put the geopolitical risk premium at $14 to $18 per barrel. On a 5-minute chart, WTI traded at $103.97, with the 200-period EMA near $102.90; resistance was cited at $104.80 and $105.50, and support at $104.00, $102.90, and $102.50.

Lessons For Trading And Risk

Looking back at the events of spring 2025, we are reminded of how quickly geopolitical risk can overwhelm market fundamentals. The massive backwardation we saw then, with May 2025 futures soaring to $115 while spot prices lagged, was a clear signal of extreme fear over near-term supply from the Strait of Hormuz crisis. This memory should guide our strategies, as even significant inventory builds were ignored when tensions flared. In the coming weeks, we must remain vigilant for similar disconnects between fundamentals and geopolitical headlines. With WTI currently trading near a more subdued $88 per barrel, the market seems complacent, but recent friction within OPEC+ over production compliance for March 2026 could easily escalate. We’ve seen reports that overall compliance fell to 95%, the lowest in over a year, suggesting internal discipline is fraying and creating supply uncertainty. Therefore, traders should pay close attention to the futures curve for any signs of it shifting back toward the kind of steep backwardation we witnessed in 2025. This structure is a key barometer of supply anxiety, and its appearance would be a strong signal to anticipate higher volatility. Right now, buying long-dated, out-of-the-money call options could be a cost-effective way to position for a sudden upward spike. We should also monitor oil volatility itself through instruments like the OVX index. Back in the 2025 crisis, the OVX spiked above 60, whereas today it is hovering around a relatively calm 32, suggesting options are comparatively cheap. This environment presents an opportunity to build positions that would profit from a sharp price movement in either direction, such as a long straddle, ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting. While the most recent EIA report showed a surprise inventory draw of 2.1 million barrels for the week ending April 3, 2026, the lesson from 2025 is that such data can become a secondary driver. A single headline concerning supply disruptions or major producer disagreements will likely have a far greater impact on price in the near term. We should therefore weight our analysis heavily toward geopolitical scanning and risk management. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold fell in Monday’s North American session after reaching $4,706, with doubts over a US–Iran agreement and reports of military preparations for possible strikes. XAU/USD was trading at $4,652, as oil rose and the US Dollar firmed. WTI was up 1.40% at $113.64 per barrel, while the US Dollar Index moved back above 100.00 and was down 0.19%. US 10-year Treasury yields were 4.337%.

Geopolitical Risk Drives Cross Asset Volatility

The Wall Street Journal reported US preparations for potential strikes on Iranian energy targets, citing multiple officials. Donald Trump said Iran “can be taken out in one night”, and a deadline was set for April 7 at 8:00 PM ET, including demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran rejected ceasefire proposals backed by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey for a 45-day pause. In the US, ISM Services PMI eased to 54 from 56.1, below the 55 forecast, while prices paid rose to 70.7, the highest since October 2022. Nonfarm Payrolls showed 178K jobs added versus 60K expected, after February’s -133K, with a 68K average in the first three months. Unemployment fell from 4.4% to 4.3%, and money markets now expect rates to stay steady all year. Technically, resistance is at $4,700 and the 100-day SMA is $4,639. Below that, levels include $4,600, $4,553 and $4,500, while upside levels include the 20-day SMA at $4,755 and $4,800. We are watching the April 7th deadline for Iran very closely, as any military action could cause extreme market swings. This uncertainty has already pushed the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) up over 35% in the last week, currently sitting near 28. Options premiums are high, suggesting traders are bracing for a major move in either direction. With the Strait of Hormuz under threat, through which nearly 21 million barrels of oil pass daily, crude oil is the most direct play on this conflict. WTI futures breaking above $113 suggests the market is pricing in a serious supply disruption. Looking back at the spike in early 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine, we know prices can move much higher if supply is actually taken offline.

Trade Ideas For Oil Gold Dollar And Volatility

Gold is in a tricky spot, caught between its safe-haven appeal and a strengthening U.S. dollar now above the 100 mark on the DXY. While a full-blown conflict could push gold through resistance at $4,700, a surprise de-escalation could see it quickly test the 100-day moving average near $4,639. We see this as an opportunity for strangles, betting on a big move but not the direction. The Federal Reserve’s steady stance, confirmed by last week’s strong jobs report showing a 4.3% unemployment rate, provides a firm floor for the dollar. Money markets are now pricing in zero rate cuts for 2026, which limits gold’s upside unless geopolitical fears completely take over. This makes long dollar positions against other currencies a potentially attractive hedge. Given the situation, we are focusing on derivatives that profit from rising volatility, such as long positions in VIX futures or buying call options on major energy stocks. Bullish oil spreads could also offer a defined-risk way to play for higher crude prices. For gold, purchasing out-of-the-money puts could be a cheap way to hedge against a sudden peace deal that would send bullion lower. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Silver (XAG/USD) traded in a narrow range on Monday amid Middle East tensions and mixed reports on attempts to end the US-Iran war. Prices were around $73, with a softer US Dollar offering some support. Gains were limited as higher Oil prices raised inflation concerns and supported expectations of higher US interest rates for longer. Reports from Axios said the US and Iran, with regional mediators, discussed a potential 45-day ceasefire. IRNA later reported that Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal sent via Pakistan and issued a 10-point response. The proposal was said to include calls to end regional conflicts and a plan for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Focus has shifted to a deadline set for Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time by US President Donald Trump. Trump warned of strikes on Iran’s energy and civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Technically, price has faced repeated rejection near the 100-day SMA and remains well below the 50-day SMA. Resistance sits at $75.84, then $82.35, with a further barrier at $96.62. Support is seen at $70-$68, then $61.01, near the 200-day SMA at $59.24. RSI is 43, while MACD is slightly positive but close to zero. We recall how silver was trapped around $73 last year during the 2025 US-Iran conflict, caught between geopolitical fear and a hawkish Federal Reserve. The market was paralyzed waiting for President Trump’s deadline concerning the Strait of Hormuz. That dynamic has changed entirely as we move through April 2026. Today, silver trades at a much lower $55, a direct result of the Fed holding rates high for most of 2025, which strengthened the dollar and suppressed non-yielding assets. The focus has now shifted from military deadlines to economic data, with the latest CPI report showing inflation moderating to 2.8% and the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.1%. This has the market pricing in potential rate cuts for the third or fourth quarter of this year. This new environment suggests a different approach to volatility than the one we saw during the 2025 standoff, when implied volatility was extremely high. With the CBOE Silver Volatility Index (VXSLV) now trading at a calmer 25, compared to spikes above 40 during past crises, selling options premium appears more attractive. Strategies like writing cash-secured puts or covered calls could allow traders to collect income while waiting for a clearer trend to emerge. For directional plays, the key levels have shifted downwards, with the former 2025 support zone around $61 now acting as firm resistance. Given the prospect of future rate cuts, we see a more constructive long-term outlook for silver. Traders can use long-dated call options, such as those expiring in January 2027 with a $60 strike price, to position for a gradual recovery without committing large amounts of capital upfront. The main risk is no longer a sudden military event but the timing of the Fed’s pivot. We should therefore use options to manage this economic uncertainty by purchasing protective puts below the significant psychological level of $50. This creates a defined floor for long positions should inflation prove unexpectedly sticky and force the Fed to delay its easing cycle.

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Gold traded around $4,660 on Monday, near $4,650, little changed on the day but below Friday’s close. Trading remained risk-averse as market mood shifted with Iran war headlines. US President Donald Trump repeated that Tuesday’s deadline is final, and said Iran’s latest proposal is not “good enough”. A quick end to the Middle East crisis was viewed as unlikely.

Market Risk Sentiment

The US dollar gained in the risk-off mood, briefly easing after US data. The ISM March Services PMI fell to 54 from 56.1, below the 55 forecast. Within the report, the Prices Paid Index rose to 70.7 from 63. The Employment Index dropped to 45.2 from 51.8. Gold stayed under selling pressure after moving away from $4,780 and holding below the 20-period SMA near $4,686. The 100- and 200-period SMAs sat near $4,673 and $4,916, while Momentum turned negative and RSI drifted towards 50. On the daily chart, price moved below the 20-day SMA near $4,755 and RSI sat just under 45. Resistance levels were $4,686, $4,787 and $4,820, while support was $4,610, $4,580 and $4,550.

Strategy Considerations

We are seeing Gold hold around the $4,660 level, but the mood is tense because of the ongoing Middle East crisis. This risk-off sentiment is benefiting the US Dollar, putting a cap on any significant Gold rally for now. This suggests a cautious, and potentially bearish, stance is warranted in the immediate term. The latest economic data from March paints a complex picture, adding to the uncertainty for traders. We just saw the ISM Services PMI employment component drop sharply to 45.2, a significant slowdown compared to the average of 50.5 we saw throughout much of 2025. At the same time, the prices paid index jumped to 70.7, indicating inflation is becoming a bigger problem again. This combination of slowing activity and rising prices suggests downside risks for gold in the coming weeks. Buying put options with strike prices near the $4,600 or $4,550 support levels could be a prudent way to position for a potential slide. This strategy offers a defined risk if gold unexpectedly rallies on a new headline. For those of us who believe the upside is limited but are not expecting a major crash, selling call options could be effective. We see significant resistance near the $4,780 level, making strikes above this area, perhaps around $4,800, attractive for collecting premium. This approach benefits from both a drop in price and time decay if gold remains range-bound. A more direct approach involves shorting gold futures contracts, but this carries higher risk due to leverage. Given the daily price swings driven by geopolitical news, any short futures position requires disciplined stop-loss orders. We would place stops above the recent highs near $4,790 to manage the risk of a sudden sentiment reversal. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Silver (XAG/USD) traded in a tight range on Monday as Middle East tensions continued, while traders avoided strong bets amid mixed reports on efforts to end the US-Iran war. It was near $73, with a softer US Dollar limiting losses. Gains were limited as higher Oil prices raised inflation worries and supported expectations of higher US interest rates for longer. Markets weighed shifting headlines on diplomacy.

Ceasefire Talks And Headline Risk

Axios reported talks involving the US and Iran, with regional mediators, about a possible 45-day ceasefire. IRNA later said Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal sent via Pakistan and issued a 10-point response. The proposal was reported to include demands to end conflicts in the region and set terms for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Focus has moved to a deadline set for Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, with warnings of strikes if the strait is not reopened. Technically, price has been rejected near the 100-day SMA and remains below the 50-day SMA. Resistance sits at $75.84, then $82.35, and the February swing high at $96.62. Support is seen at $70-$68, then $61.01, near the 200-day SMA at $59.24. RSI is 43, while MACD is slightly positive but near zero.

Options Strategies For A Volatile Backdrop

We are seeing silver trade sideways around $38 an ounce as traders assess the current geopolitical climate. Market hesitation stems from escalating maritime tensions in the South China Sea, creating a sense of indecision. This feels very similar to what we experienced this time last year. Looking back at this period in 2025, we recall a similar tight range when silver was pinned near $73. The market was whipsawed by conflicting headlines over the US-Iran war and a potential ceasefire. That experience taught us how quickly sentiment can turn on a single news report. Given the uncertainty, we believe establishing long straddles or strangles on silver futures is a prudent approach for the coming weeks. This strategy profits from a significant price move in either direction, which seems likely given the fragile situation. The Precious Metals Volatility Index (PMVIX) supports this view, having climbed 15% to 32.5 in the last two weeks. For those with a slight bullish bias, a call ratio spread could offer a low-cost way to position for an upside break. We have seen call option open interest on the May silver contracts with a $40 strike jump by 25% this past week, indicating an upside hedge. This allows traders to capitalize on a sudden de-escalation or a flight-to-safety rally. We must not ignore the downside risk, as the stalemate could easily break the other way. The memory of silver testing the $61 level during the 2025 crisis serves as a sharp reminder of how quickly support can vanish. Buying protective puts or using bear put spreads to hedge long positions seems wise, especially as the latest CPI data makes a supportive Fed pivot unlikely. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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