Gold rose on Friday as hopes of a US-Iran deal and reports that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” helped push oil prices lower. XAU/USD traded near $4,870, up about 1.67% on the day, and was set for a fourth straight weekly gain.

WTI fell to its lowest level since March 11 and traded around $81.50, down nearly 9% on the day. The US Dollar Index was near 97.73, at more than one-month lows and heading for a third consecutive weekly decline.

Gold Gains As Oil Slides

Lower oil prices eased near-term inflation concerns and supported expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Markets also watched for updates on weekend US-Iran talks, while the US naval blockade was described as remaining in place until a final agreement is completed.

Fars News Agency, citing an Iranian official, said Iran could close the strait again if the blockade continues, according to Reuters. The US calendar had no major data releases, with attention on Fed speeches before the blackout period ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC meeting.

Technically, gold held above the 20-day SMA at $4,646, with RSI (14) near 52 and MACD positive. Resistance sat near $4,931, with support at $4,646 and around $4,361.

Looking back at the events of April 2025, we saw a classic conflict for gold traders as geopolitical de-escalation fought against renewed bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. The sharp drop in oil prices following hopes of a US-Iran deal put immediate downward pressure on inflation expectations, which is a key dynamic to watch for now. Derivative traders should be prepared for similar rapid shifts in sentiment based on geopolitical headlines.

The sudden revival of Fed rate cut expectations in 2025 was directly tied to that 9% single-day drop in WTI crude. Today, with core inflation having remained stubbornly above 3.5% through the first quarter of 2026, any sign of a significant oil price decline could trigger an even more aggressive repricing of Fed policy. This suggests that call options on gold could offer significant leverage if we see a similar supply-side shock that eases energy prices.

Fed Policy And Geopolitical Risk

We should remember the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance throughout late 2025, which contrasts with the dovish sentiment seen in that brief period. The Fed has consistently signaled it needs more than a temporary dip in headline inflation to pivot, meaning a deal in a conflict zone might not be enough this time. Therefore, traders should be wary of chasing the first rumor and instead look for confirmation in Fed speeches or a sustained drop in bond yields.

The fragility of the 2025 ceasefire is a critical lesson, as the market priced in the best-case scenario while the US naval blockade remained active. Today, underlying geopolitical risk remains high, providing a strong fundamental floor for gold prices. We can use this historical example to structure trades, such as buying puts on oil as a hedge for long gold positions when peace talks are announced.

Underlying demand remains a powerful force that was not a factor in the short-term news of 2025. Central banks continued their historic buying spree, adding another 1,047 tonnes to global reserves in 2025, building on the record purchases we saw in 2022 and 2023. This persistent demand from official sources suggests that any significant price dip caused by temporary risk-on sentiment should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

The technical setup from that time, with tightening Bollinger Bands signaling a period of low volatility before a major breakout, is highly relevant today. Given the conflicting fundamental drivers, traders should consider using options strategies that profit from a spike in volatility, such as a long straddle. This allows a position to capitalize on a sharp price move in either direction once the market picks a clear path.

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USD/CAD fell on Friday, trading near 1.3670, down 0.26% on the day. The pair stayed under pressure as the Canadian Dollar strengthened even though oil prices dropped.

Markets reacted to Middle East developments after Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to commercial shipping during the ceasefire. This followed weeks of tension around the route.

Oil Prices Slide As Supply Fears Ease

The reopening pushed oil lower as supply disruption fears eased. West Texas Intermediate traded near $80 per barrel and recorded one of its steepest daily falls in recent weeks, with Gulf export flows expected to return to normal.

The Canadian Dollar rose despite its usual link to energy prices, suggesting US Dollar weakness was the main driver. The US Dollar Index traded near multi-week lows around 97.80 as markets reviewed the US interest-rate outlook.

CME FedWatch showed a 38.2% chance of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut by year-end, up from 25.9% the prior day. In Canada, March CPI is due on Monday and is expected to accelerate due to the energy shock linked to the Iran war.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the economy could face “higher price levels”. He also referred to the task of keeping inflation anchored without causing a sharp slowdown.

Market Focus Shifts Toward Central Banks

The Canadian dollar is strengthening against the US dollar even though oil prices are falling sharply, and we need to react to this unusual divergence. This break from the normal correlation, where a weaker oil price typically hurts the loonie, presents a key opportunity. The market is currently more focused on what central banks will do next rather than on energy prices.

We are seeing broad weakness in the US dollar as the drop to $80 a barrel for oil reduces fears of American inflation. This has led markets to increase the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year, a view supported by the recent March jobs report which showed a modest cooling in the labor market. This narrative of a softening US economy is the primary force pushing the USD/CAD pair lower for now.

The main event for us in the coming days is Monday’s release of Canadian inflation data. If the Consumer Price Index comes in as hot as anticipated, it will reinforce the view that the Bank of Canada must remain vigilant, keeping its policy tight while the Fed considers easing. This growing policy difference is what traders are currently betting on, favoring the Canadian dollar.

However, we must consider that the current disconnect between oil and the Canadian dollar may not last. Looking back at data through 2024, the positive correlation between crude prices and the loonie was extremely reliable, and a sustained period of lower energy prices will eventually weigh on Canada’s economy. This makes betting on continued Canadian dollar strength a potentially risky trade if market focus shifts back to commodities.

Given these strong but opposing forces, positioning for a large move in either direction seems like a prudent strategy. One-month implied volatility on USD/CAD options has risen to a three-month high of 8.5%, indicating the market is already pricing in a significant price swing following the inflation report. Using options to trade this expected volatility, rather than picking a firm direction, could be the most effective approach in the coming weeks.

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AUD/USD rose towards the 0.7200 area on Friday as Middle East news reduced demand for the US Dollar and lifted risk-linked currencies such as the Australian Dollar. Markets reacted after announcements that the Strait of Hormuz is “fully open and ready for full passage”.

US President Donald Trump said the route is open for business, while temporary naval restrictions linked to Iran will stay in place as talks near completion. The overall messaging pointed to de-escalation.

Dollar Slips As Oil Risk Premium Fades

With fewer worries about oil supply disruptions, the US Dollar eased after earlier support from geopolitical concerns. Oil prices were expected to stabilise or fall, which could reduce inflation risks and ease pressure on central banks.

On the four-hour chart, AUD/USD traded at 0.7194 and stayed above the 20-period SMA at 0.7159 and the 100-period SMA at 0.6996. The RSI (14) sat just above 70.

Resistance levels were cited at 0.7194 and 0.7221, while support was listed at 0.7171, 0.7162, and 0.7159. A move towards 0.6996 was noted as the level that would challenge the uptrend.

The report said the technical analysis was produced with help from an AI tool.

How The 2025 Setup Informed Positioning

Looking back at the situation in 2025, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was a key signal for a risk-on shift in the market. The de-escalation directly weakened the US Dollar’s safe-haven appeal, which had been propping it up. This created a clear opportunity as risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar began to strengthen.

We saw this as an ideal time to position for further upside in AUD/USD using derivatives. Buying call options on the Aussie dollar was a direct way to capitalize on the rally toward the 0.7200 level mentioned in the analysis. The drop in geopolitical tension also lowered implied volatility, making these options relatively inexpensive to acquire.

Today, on April 17, 2026, the environment is different, though we can draw lessons from that 2025 event. Global oil supplies are once again a concern, with Brent crude futures having recently pushed above $90 per barrel, a level not seen since late 2025. This contrasts with the price stabilization we saw after the Hormuz reopening and adds a layer of uncertainty for risk assets.

The Australian economy is also sending different signals now, with the latest quarterly CPI data showing inflation remains sticky at 3.5%, above the central bank’s target range. This persistent inflation suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia may be forced to maintain a restrictive policy stance longer than anticipated. This provides some underlying support for the AUD, independent of the global risk mood.

Given the current backdrop of high oil prices but a potentially hawkish RBA, a cautious but bullish stance on the AUD is warranted. Rather than buying outright calls as we did in 2025, using a bull call spread on AUD/USD would be more prudent. This strategy allows for profiting from a moderate rise in the currency while capping risk in what is a more uncertain global environment.

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Silver (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, trading near $82.60 and up 5.40% on the day. The move came as the US Dollar weakened and markets reassessed the outlook for US monetary policy.

Middle East tensions appeared to ease after Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz was completely open for commercial vessels during the current ceasefire. This followed weeks of tension around a key global shipping route.

Market Drivers And Policy Outlook

Oil prices fell as concerns about supply disruption eased. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped to about $80 per barrel, one of its steepest daily falls in recent weeks.

Lower oil prices reduced near-term inflation pressure and shifted rate expectations. CME FedWatch showed a 38.2% chance of a 25-basis-point US rate cut by year-end, up from 25.9% the previous day.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded near multi-week lows around 97.80. A weaker dollar supported demand for silver.

Markets are watching possible US-Iran talks over the weekend. Traders are also tracking comments from Federal Reserve officials ahead of the blackout period before the next FOMC meeting.

Strategy Implications For Traders

The surge in silver to $82.60 is a powerful bullish signal, pushing the metal into historically high territory not seen even during the inflationary shocks of 2024. We should consider using call options to capture further upside, as this move is driven by a fundamental shift in both monetary policy expectations and currency markets. Traders must be mindful that implied volatility is likely very high, making options more expensive.

With the geopolitical risk premium evaporating from oil prices, the immediate threat of energy-driven inflation has subsided significantly. We remember how stubbornly high energy costs in 2025 kept the Federal Reserve from easing policy sooner. This decline suggests positioning for lower oil prices through put options on WTI futures or related ETFs could be advantageous.

The market’s swift repricing of a Fed rate cut reinforces the bearish case for the US Dollar. The Dollar Index trading at 97.80 is a notable breakdown from the range above 100 that we saw for much of 2025. This trend makes shorting the dollar, or buying calls on currencies like the Euro and Australian Dollar, an attractive strategy.

This new environment is highly favorable for non-yielding assets, and we should expect capital to continue flowing into precious metals. The combination of a weaker dollar and lower potential interest rates is a classic recipe for a rally in silver and gold. As of early 2026, household savings rates have also climbed to 4.1%, up from 3.2% a year prior, suggesting more retail investment capital could enter these markets.

Looking ahead, we must watch for confirmation from upcoming inflation data, particularly the next CPI report. A cooler-than-expected inflation reading would validate the market’s dovish stance and could trigger the next leg up for silver. We learned throughout 2025 that the market reacts very strongly to these inflation prints, and any deviation from expectations will create significant volatility.

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The US and Iran held talks on Friday, and Iran said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately. Oil prices fell, while US share indices rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up over 2% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each up about 1.5%.

The report links the move to a conflict between the US and Israel and Iran that began on 28 February, nearly 50 days earlier. It also says airline costs rose with jet fuel prices during the conflict.

Markets React To Strait Reopening

US President Donald Trump said Israel would be barred from further bombing of Lebanon, after a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon began on Thursday night. Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said commercial vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be “completely open” for the remaining period of the ceasefire.

The ceasefire talks are described as having begun about 10 days ago. The US is said to be discussing a deal for Iran to access $20 billion in frozen funds in exchange for giving up highly enriched uranium, including uranium enriched to 60% purity or above, with a proposed 20-year moratorium and a five-year counter-offer.

Airline shares rose, with United up over 10% and JetBlue and Southwest each up more than 9%. Hilton and Marriott shares reached new all-time highs.

With the immediate risk of war removed, we see the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) likely collapsing from highs that probably exceeded 35 in March, similar to levels seen during the 2022 Ukraine invasion. This presents an opportunity to sell volatility, as option premiums were inflated by war fears that have now subsided. Selling cash-secured puts or credit spreads on solid companies is a primary strategy for the coming days.

Strategy For The Coming Days

The sharp drop in oil is the market pricing in the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes daily. We believe WTI crude, which likely traded over $110 a barrel just last week, will now struggle to rally unless the peace talks falter. Looking back at 2025, we recall how quickly energy markets can reverse, so we would be cautious about chasing this move lower and instead look for prices to stabilize.

Airline stocks are the most direct beneficiaries of this news, as jet fuel can account for nearly 30% of their operating expenses. The surge in names like United Airlines is a massive relief rally, and we can use derivatives to capitalize on this sentiment shift. Selling puts on the JETS ETF or its strongest components allows us to collect premium while expressing a bullish view that the worst is over for the sector.

The overall market relief, reflected in the S&P 500’s jump, suggests geopolitical risk is being unwound across the board. However, this is a 10-day ceasefire, not a permanent treaty, making the situation fragile. We see this as similar to the initial Iran nuclear deal framework announced back in 2015, which was a positive step but still left significant room for failure.

Therefore, while our primary positions will be bullish, we must maintain a hedge against a breakdown in negotiations. A small allocation to cheap, far out-of-the-money call options on oil ETFs or put options on the SPY expiring in late May provides an inexpensive form of insurance. If the talks collapse, these positions would help offset losses from the broader market downturn that would surely follow.

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US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Friday that the US would get “nuclear dust” from Iran using B2 bombers.

He said no money would change hands “in any way, shape, or form”, and that the deal was not subject to Lebanon. He added that the US would separately work with Lebanon and address the Hezbollah situation.

Us Prohibits Israel From Bombing Lebanon

Trump also wrote that Israel would not bomb Lebanon any longer and said the US was prohibiting it. He added: “Enough is enough!”

Financial markets were driven by risk-on moves on Friday. At the time of publication, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 were each up 1%.

This statement is being read as a significant de-escalation in the Middle East, potentially removing a major risk premium from the market. We are looking to position for a drop in expected market volatility over the next few weeks. The VIX index, which spiked over 21 during the Iran-Israel exchange back in April of 2024, is a key focus for this trade.

The risk premium in crude oil should evaporate quickly if this holds, as the immediate threat to supply in the Strait of Hormuz recedes. We see an opportunity in buying put options on Brent crude futures, which have been trading near $95 a barrel on war fears. When we analyzed the market last year in 2025, we consistently saw prices react sharply to Mideast headlines, suggesting a quick reversal is now likely.

Positioning For Risk On And Lower Volatility

The market’s initial positive reaction suggests a broader risk-on sentiment is taking hold, a trend we expect to continue. We are considering buying near-term call options on the S&P 500 (SPX) and specifically on transportation ETFs, which benefit directly from lower oil prices. This is especially attractive given that recent investor sentiment surveys from last week showed a bearish tilt, with the bull-bear spread at -5%, indicating there is room for a rally.

Conversely, we anticipate weakness in sectors that thrive on conflict, particularly defense and safe-haven assets like gold. We are looking at buying put options on aerospace and defense ETFs, which have seen a nearly 15% run-up so far this year on escalating tensions. We recall how these same defense names rallied throughout late 2025, and a reversal seems logical as gold pulls back from its recent test of the $2,500/oz level.

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An economist at BNP Paribas compares the oil and gas price jump linked to the war in Iran with the energy shock seen in 2022 after the war in Ukraine. The article asks whether similar drivers will lead to similar inflation and growth outcomes.

It says inflation pressure may be weaker than in 2022 because demand is less dynamic and supply is less constrained. It adds that this could limit how far higher energy prices feed through into broader prices.

Transmission And Timing Effects

The piece notes that transmission delays mean the effects may take time to appear and to fade. It says the situation should be monitored closely as the economy adjusts.

It also states that central banks learned from the 2021–2023 inflation period. It adds that they may react faster to reduce spillovers, second-round effects, and a spiral between price rises, inflation expectations, and wages.

The article says a set of indicators has been chosen to track effects on activity and prices in the Eurozone, the United States, oil and gas markets, and emerging countries. It aims to assess how closely current conditions match those in 2022.

It notes the article was produced with the help of an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. The content is credited to the FXStreet Insights Team, which compiles market observations and analysis.

Why This Shock Differs From 2022

Given the recent surge in oil prices, we believe this energy shock will not be a repeat of the 2022 inflationary spiral. While Brent crude has jumped to nearly $115 per barrel in the past month due to the conflict in Iran, the underlying economic conditions are fundamentally different. Looking back to 2022, the post-pandemic demand boom provided fertile ground for inflation, which is not the case today.

Weaker global demand is a key reason for this view, which should limit how much energy costs pass through to core prices. For instance, China’s latest manufacturing PMI reading slipped to 49.8, indicating a slight contraction, while US retail sales were flat last month. This contrasts sharply with the robust demand environment we saw in early 2022.

This suggests that options pricing in a sustained oil price above $130, similar to the 2022 peak, may be overvalued. The latest US CPI data supports a more moderate inflation outlook, rising to 3.1% but not showing the explosive momentum seen when it surged past 7% in 2022. Traders might consider strategies that bet on a ceiling for energy prices, such as selling out-of-the-money call options on WTI or Brent futures.

Furthermore, we see that central banks are not behind the curve this time. The Federal Reserve and ECB have been clear they will react swiftly to any signs of inflation expectations becoming unanchored, a lesson learned from the 2021-2023 period. This implies that the front end of the yield curve will react quickly, making bets on prolonged central bank inaction very risky.

Therefore, traders should be cautious about simply replaying the 2022 strategy of going long on broad commodities and shorting bonds. The increased vigilance from central banks could cap long-term inflation expectations, potentially making inflation swaps at current levels look expensive. The key difference now is the proactive stance of policymakers, who are determined to prevent a wage-price spiral before it can even begin.

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video statement on Friday that there is an opportunity for a historic deal with Lebanon, according to Reuters. He said he agreed to a temporary ten-day ceasefire with Lebanon.

Netanyahu said Israel’s key demand is that Hezbollah must be dismantled. He also said Israel has not agreed to Hezbollah’s demand for Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon back to the international border.

Israel Lebanon Ceasefire And Security Zone

He said Israel will remain in Lebanon with an extensive security zone up to the Syrian border. He added that President Trump told him he is determined to continue the blockade of the Hormuz Strait and dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

In markets, risk appetite stayed positive in the American session. The US Dollar Index traded near 97.80, in the lower half of its weekly range, and was down 0.4% on the day.

We recall the optimism back in 2025 when a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced. That ten-day pause ultimately failed to produce a lasting agreement, as the core demands were never met. Today, the situation remains tense, with cross-border skirmishes being a regular feature of market news.

The unresolved tensions with Iran, which were highlighted back in 2025, are directly impacting oil markets today. With Brent crude futures trading near $115 a barrel after another reported shipping disruption near the Strait of Hormuz, volatility in the energy sector is high. We believe long-dated call options on major oil producers offer a way to gain exposure to further supply shocks.

Market Volatility And Hedging Strategies

The risk-positive sentiment we saw in 2025 has evaporated. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently elevated, hovering around 28, a stark contrast to the low teens we saw for much of last year. This suggests traders should consider buying protective puts on broad market indices like the S&P 500 to hedge against a sudden escalation.

The failure to dismantle Hezbollah, a key Israeli demand in the 2025 talks, has led to sustained military budgets in the region. Defense sector ETFs, such as ITA, are up over 15% year-to-date, reflecting these ongoing security concerns. We see continued strength here, and selling out-of-the-money puts on these names could be a way to collect premium.

Unlike the weaker US dollar environment noted in 2025, today’s persistent geopolitical risks have renewed its safe-haven appeal. The Dollar Index has been grinding higher, recently breaking through the 107 level. We anticipate this trend will continue, making long positions on the dollar against commodity-linked currencies an attractive trade.

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WTI US oil fell on Friday to about $81.50, after dropping 9.12% on the day. It had briefly risen above $90, then slid to an intraday low of $80.30, its weakest level since 10 March.

The move followed news from the Middle East. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said that after the ceasefire in Lebanon the Strait of Hormuz has been declared fully open to all commercial vessels for the rest of the truce period.

Strait Of Hormuz Reopens

Araghchi said shipping would resume using coordinated routes set by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organisation. US President Donald Trump said the strait is open for passage, while a naval blockade would still apply to Iran until a US-Iran transaction is completed.

The change reduced fears that the strait would stay closed after rising US-Iran tensions. The Strait of Hormuz is a major route for global oil shipments.

ING had estimated that about 13 million barrels per day of oil supply was disrupted by the blockade around the strait. With reopening now announced, trading shifted towards the ceasefire’s duration and whether the US and Iran can agree terms to keep the route open.

The dramatic unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium means that implied volatility in crude oil options is set to collapse in the coming days. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX), which had been trading near multi-year highs around 55, will likely fall sharply toward its year-to-date average. For us, this makes selling volatility through strategies like short strangles or iron condors an attractive proposition, capitalizing on the market’s shift away from extreme event risk.

With the immediate threat of a wider conflict removed, our focus must now shift back to market fundamentals, which were already tight. Remember that OPEC+ agreed back in December 2025 to hold production cuts through the second quarter, and recent demand figures from China for Q1 2026 came in stronger than anticipated. This suggests that while the fear-driven peak is gone, a solid floor for prices may establish itself in the high $70s.

Options Strategy After Volatility Drops

This new environment favors selling downside protection that was recently very expensive. We should look to sell out-of-the-money put options below the $80 strike price, collecting what is left of the elevated premium as the market digests the news. The extreme demand for upside call options seen over the past few weeks has evaporated, and those positions will now see their value decay rapidly.

We have seen this pattern before, such as after the drone attacks on Saudi Arabian facilities back in 2019. In that instance, a massive price spike was almost fully retraced within two weeks as supply fears were proven to be overblown. Today’s 9% drop is a similar reaction, suggesting the market will now seek equilibrium based on actual supply flows rather than potential disruptions.

Moving forward, the key data will be the weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory reports and real-time shipping data. After last Wednesday’s report on April 15, 2026, showed a surprise crude draw of 2.1 million barrels, we will now watch to see how quickly the resumption of traffic through Hormuz translates into inventory builds. Satellite tracking data from firms like Vortexa will be critical in confirming that the nearly 17 million barrels per day of average flow seen in late 2025 has truly resumed.

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UK 10-year gilt yields rose by 3.4bps after a Guardian report said Peter Mandelson failed security vetting for a former US ambassador role, and that the decision was overruled by the Foreign Office.

The report contrasted with Prime Minister Starmer’s statement to the House of Commons that “full due process was followed”. This fed concerns about a change in leadership and the possibility of looser fiscal rules, higher borrowing, more gilt issuance, and higher yields.

Political Risk Driving Gilt Yield Volatility

Gilts were already slightly underperforming before the report. UK GDP grew by 0.5% month on month in February, compared with a 0.2% expectation.

The article states it was produced with the help of an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. It is attributed to the FXStreet Insights Team.

We remember how the political news surrounding Peter Mandelson in 2025 caused a sudden jump in 10-year gilt yields. This event provides a clear playbook for how the market reacts to perceived weakness in the Prime Minister’s authority. Any sign of political instability should be seen as a direct trigger for higher borrowing costs.

This political sensitivity is happening against a backdrop of stubborn inflation, which recent data for March showed is still at 3.2%, well above the Bank of England’s 2% target. This limits the central bank’s ability to support the bond market, leaving it exposed to shocks. The 10-year gilt yield is already elevated, hovering around 4.35% in response to these persistent price pressures.

Derivatives Positioning For Higher Yields

Derivative traders should consider positioning for increased volatility and a potential spike in yields. We see value in buying put options on Long Gilt futures, providing a defined-risk way to profit from a fall in UK government bond prices. This strategy acts as an effective hedge against unexpected political flare-ups or a fiscally loose successor.

Just as we saw with the surprisingly strong GDP data in February 2025, the UK economy is showing signs of resilience again, with monthly growth coming in at 0.1%. This positive economic data further reduces the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts from the Bank of England. This combination of a firm economy and political risk creates a compelling case for yields to move higher.

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