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Scott Bessent told Fox News the oil market is well supplied, though extra supplies would help

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Fox News interview on Monday that the oil market is well supplied. He added that extra supply would still be helpful, according to Reuters. Bessent said the US is seeing more oil supply as countries make agreements with Iran. He also said the US will take control of the Strait of Hormuz over time.

Oil Market Supply Outlook

The comments did not move markets much. At the time of publication, US stock index futures were up between 0.7% and 0.8%. The market seems to agree with the Treasury Secretary’s view that oil is well supplied for now. Last week’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) data supported this, showing a modest build in U.S. crude inventories of 1.8 million barrels, while OPEC+ has signaled no immediate plans to alter its output quotas. This stability is reflected in front-month futures contracts, which have been trading in a narrow range. However, the casual mention of taking control of the Strait of Hormuz is a significant geopolitical statement that should not be ignored. We all remember the sharp spike in volatility during the third quarter of 2025 when tensions last flared in that region, causing Brent crude prices to jump nearly 12% in a week. With approximately 21 million barrels of oil passing through that chokepoint daily, it remains the market’s most critical vulnerability. The market’s calm response has pushed implied volatility down, with the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) currently sitting near a six-month low of 32. This makes buying protection or placing speculative bets relatively cheap for traders. It presents a clear opportunity to purchase long-dated call options to guard against a sudden supply shock.

Equity Market Risk Implications

This complacency also extends to the equity markets, which are clearly betting on stable energy prices to support economic activity. A sudden repricing of geopolitical risk in the oil market would hit transportation and industrial stocks particularly hard. Therefore, traders might consider pairing long oil volatility positions with buying put options on a transport-tracking ETF. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 6:15 pm, by

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MUFG reports NOK outperforming European rivals, boosted by energy exports and Norges Bank’s increasingly hawkish policy repricing

The Norwegian krone (NOK) has outperformed most European peers during the Middle East conflict. This has been linked to Norway’s role as an energy exporter and a more hawkish market view of Norges Bank policy. Rising energy prices and higher yields are expected to support NOK in the near term. A much larger oil price spike could reduce support if it raises fears of a global slowdown or recession.

Norges Bank Policy Outlook

Norges Bank said at its latest policy meeting last week that it “will likely be appropriate to raise the policy rate at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings”. Inflation has been above target for several years, which has led the Bank to address upside risks. A stronger NOK can help reduce imported inflation, but it has not eased concerns about persistent inflation pressures. Norges Bank is planning to raise rates by 25–50bps in 2026. The article notes it was produced using an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Given the current environment, the Norwegian Krone is likely to continue its strong performance against European currencies in the coming weeks. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has kept energy prices firm, with Brent crude currently trading over $95 a barrel, which directly benefits Norway’s export-driven economy. This provides a solid foundation for NOK strength.

Derivative Trading Approach

The hawkish stance from Norges Bank adds significant fuel to this outlook. With Norway’s latest inflation reading for February 2026 coming in at 4.2%, well above the 2% target, the central bank has little choice but to act. As a result, interest rate swaps are now pricing in a greater than 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming May meeting. For derivative traders, this suggests that buying near-term call options on the NOK, particularly against currencies like the Euro or Swiss Franc whose central banks are less aggressive, is a compelling strategy. A bullish call spread could be used to position for further NOK appreciation into the next central bank decision while managing the premium paid. This captures the upside from both high energy prices and rising interest rate differentials. Looking back, we saw a similar dynamic in late 2025 when the NOK initially outperformed as energy prices climbed. The primary risk to this view is a severe oil price spike above $120, which could trigger a sharp global slowdown. In that scenario, fears of a worldwide recession would likely overwhelm the benefits of high oil prices for the krone. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 6:15 pm, by

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RBI action briefly lifted the rupee, yet month-to-date losses persist as foreign investors keep withdrawing funds

The Indian rupee rose by over 1% to 93.53 per US dollar after action by the Reserve Bank of India. The RBI also introduced tighter limits on banks’ net open rupee positions in foreign exchange markets. Commercial banks were told to cap net open positions at $100m at the end of each business day, effective 10 April. This replaces the earlier framework that allowed positions up to 25% of a firm’s total capital. Despite the bounce, the rupee is down 4% this month amid record foreign portfolio outflows. These include -$12.1bn from equities and -$1.6bn from bonds. The move comes alongside pressure from trade and public finance conditions. India’s 10-year government bond yield is close to moving above 7.0% for the first time since July 2024. We recall how the RBI’s intervention last year brought the rupee back to 93.53/USD after a sharp decline. That move, combined with new limits on banks’ open currency positions, provided only a temporary boost. The fundamental weaknesses that were present then are still driving the market today. The heavy FPI outflows we saw in 2025 have not reversed course. In fact, data for the first quarter of 2026 shows that foreign investors have continued to be net sellers, pulling a further $5.2 billion from Indian markets. This persistent selling pressure places a natural cap on any potential rupee strength. Structural headwinds from trade also remain a major concern. India’s trade deficit widened again in February 2026 to $22.5 billion, putting consistent downward pressure on the currency. These fundamental factors suggest that the rupee’s path of least resistance is downwards. Last year, we watched the 10-year Indian government bond yield push toward the 7.0% mark; it has since crossed that level and stabilized around 7.15%. This signals ongoing fiscal pressure and makes holding rupee-denominated debt less attractive for foreign capital. The elevated yields reflect underlying risks that weigh on the currency’s value. For derivative traders, this suggests that any short-term rupee strength should be viewed as an opportunity to position for further weakness. The rupee already weakened past the 95/USD mark earlier this quarter, establishing a new range. Using forward contracts or buying USD call options could be a way to hedge against or speculate on a move towards higher levels.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 5:16 pm, by

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Germany’s annual consumer inflation rose to 2.7%, accelerating from the prior 1.9% reading recorded previously

Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year on year in March. This was up from 1.9% in the previous reading. The data shows an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared with the prior month’s annual rate. The CPI is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices paid by households.

Inflation Surprise And Market Repricing

This sharp increase in German inflation to 2.7% is a significant event for us, as it firmly challenges the narrative of disinflation that has dominated markets. This figure is not just above the European Central Bank’s 2% target, but its acceleration from 1.9% suggests underlying price pressures are much stronger than anticipated. The market consensus was closer to 2.2%, meaning this surprise will force a rapid repricing of interest rate expectations. We must assume this data will push the European Central Bank into a much more hawkish stance in the coming weeks. Any discussions of potential rate cuts are likely now off the table for the foreseeable future, replaced by concerns that further tightening may be necessary. Looking at recent data, German wage growth in the manufacturing sector accelerated by 4.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, providing fuel for this kind of service-led inflation. Consequently, we should prepare for rising bond yields and falling bond prices across the Eurozone. We can act on this by shorting German Bund futures or using interest rate swaps to position for higher short-term rates. The German 10-year yield has already jumped to 2.75% this morning, and we expect it to test the 3.0% level seen in late 2025 if follow-up data remains strong. For equity markets, this is a clear headwind, especially for the interest-rate-sensitive stocks in the DAX index. We should consider buying put options on the DAX or other European indices to hedge against a potential market downturn. Higher borrowing costs and the threat of a more restrictive ECB policy will likely compress corporate profit margins and investor sentiment. This inflationary surprise will also drive volatility, with the VSTOXX index, a measure of Eurozone volatility, already showing a 12% spike today. This environment is favorable for strategies that profit from increased market swings, such as purchasing straddles. Additionally, a more aggressive ECB stance should strengthen the Euro, making long EUR/USD positions an attractive trade.

Lessons From Past Inflation Cycles

Looking back at 2025, we recall the persistent inflation of 2022 and 2023 which forced central banks into an aggressive hiking cycle that many thought was over. That period taught us that inflation can be sticky and that central bank pivots can be swift and decisive. We should apply that lesson today and not underestimate the ECB’s reaction to this new data. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 5:16 pm, by

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In March, Germany’s harmonised consumer prices rose 1.2% month-on-month, matching market expectations

Germany’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 1.2% month on month in March. The March reading matched expectations at 1.2% on a month-on-month basis.

March Inflation Confirms Policy Constraints

The latest German inflation figure confirms what we’ve been seeing. A high monthly print of 1.2% met expectations, which removes any immediate surprise from the market. This reinforces the view that the European Central Bank has little room to soften its stance on interest rates. Looking back from our 2025 perspective, the sharp 15% rise in energy futures during the fourth quarter made this outcome almost inevitable. We saw core inflation, which excludes energy, also tick up to an annualized rate of 4.5% in February, signaling these price pressures are becoming embedded. This March number is simply the expected result of those earlier trends. For those trading interest rates, this cements the “higher for longer” narrative for German yields. Short positions on Bund futures remain the consensus trade, as the path of least resistance for yields is upwards. We don’t expect a major repricing today, but any dip in yields will likely be seen as a selling opportunity. This sustained inflationary pressure will act as a ceiling for the German DAX index. We can expect traders to use options to bet on a range-bound or slightly negative market, possibly by selling out-of-the-money call options. With this inflation data now public, a near-term drop in implied volatility on the index is also a strong possibility.

Euro Support And Market Positioning

The Euro should find continued support from this data, as it solidifies the ECB’s relatively hawkish policy path. We’ve seen the US Federal Reserve signal a potential pause in its own hiking cycle last month, with US CPI falling to 3.1% recently. Therefore, positions that favor Euro strength, especially against the US dollar, seem well-justified for the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 5:15 pm, by

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Germany’s annual harmonised consumer inflation matched forecasts at 2.8% during March, meeting market expectations

Germany’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.8% year on year in March. The March figure matched expectations at 2.8%.

Market Volatility Implications

The German inflation data for March came in exactly as predicted at 2.8%. This lack of surprise suggests a potential decrease in short-term market volatility. Traders might see this as an opportunity to sell short-dated options on indices like the DAX, as the premium from uncertainty is likely to fade. While the number shows progress, inflation remains stubbornly above the European Central Bank’s 2% goal. This reinforces the view that the ECB will remain cautious and data-dependent, hesitating to signal an imminent interest rate cut. We see this as a continuation of the theme from late 2025, when policymakers repeatedly emphasized the need to see a sustained decline in price pressures. This print follows the broader Eurozone core inflation figure from February 2026, which was still elevated at 3.1%. In fact, recent shipping data from early March 2026 showed a 4% month-over-month increase in freight costs into major European ports like Rotterdam, a risk that keeps services inflation sticky. This contrasts with the clear disinflationary trend we saw in the goods sector throughout most of 2025. Given that the inflation print was not a shock, we could see a decline in the V2X index, which measures Euro Stoxx 50 volatility. This environment could favor strategies that profit from stability, such as selling strangles on major European indices. The market has been pricing in a rate cut for months, and this expected data point does little to change the narrative.

Rate Cut Timing Outlook

The data likely pushes expectations for the first ECB rate cut further into the summer, possibly towards the July meeting rather than June. Traders should adjust positions in EURIBOR futures to reflect this delay, as the contracts for the second quarter may now seem overpriced. This creates an opportunity to bet on a flatter yield curve in the coming weeks. A less dovish ECB compared to the US Federal Reserve could provide some support for the euro in the near term. This might make buying EUR/USD call spreads an interesting play, targeting a modest appreciation of the currency over the next few weeks. The key is that the probability of a rate cut in Europe has decreased slightly relative to the United States. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 5:15 pm, by

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Germany’s monthly Consumer Price Index exceeded forecasts, rising 1.1% versus the expected 0.9% in March

Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.1% month on month in March. The result was above the 0.9% forecast. The difference between the actual figure and expectations was 0.2 percentage points. This indicates faster monthly price growth than predicted for March. German inflation for March came in higher than anyone expected at 1.1% month-over-month. This news immediately challenges the widespread belief that the European Central Bank would be cutting rates by this summer. For us, this means we should anticipate a significant jump in volatility, especially in derivatives tied to European interest rates. We are seeing the market rapidly price out the June rate cut that was almost a certainty last week when the ECB deposit rate stood at 3.0%. This German CPI number, pushing the year-over-year rate back up to 3.1%, suggests the ECB’s job is not finished. Therefore, we should consider positions that benefit from higher short-term rates for longer, such as buying puts on EURIBOR futures. The Euro has strengthened on this news, already pushing past the 1.0950 level against the US dollar. We see this as a potential trend reversal, especially after the currency’s weakness observed late last year in 2025. Traders should look at buying short-dated EUR/USD call options to capitalize on further upward momentum driven by a more hawkish ECB. For equity markets, this persistent inflation is a clear headwind, especially for the German DAX index, which recently hit a record high of 18,500. The prospect of tighter monetary policy threatens corporate earnings and valuations. We believe buying protective puts on the DAX or establishing bearish call spreads are prudent strategies in the coming weeks. This situation feels very similar to what we experienced back in 2023, when markets consistently underestimated inflation and central bank resolve. Back then, volatility indices like the VSTOXX saw sharp spikes on similar inflation surprises. We expect implied volatility on European assets to rise, presenting opportunities for those who are positioned for wider market swings.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 4:17 pm, by

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Prices rose as aluminium supply tightened after Iranian attacks hit EGA and Alba, worsening Gulf curtailments

Aluminium prices rose after Iranian attacks damaged Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and hit Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), which is still assessing operational disruption. Aluminium climbed as much as 6% to $3,492 per tonne in early trading on the London Metal Exchange. The attacks add to earlier supply reductions across the Gulf. Curtailments at Alba and Qatalum have already affected about 560 kilotonnes of annual capacity. As a result, around 8–9% of regional supply is now at risk. The Middle East accounts for roughly 9% of global aluminium production. Any extended outages could tighten global availability further, given limited raw material inventories in the region. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is also a key route for maintaining supply flows. The article says it was produced with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. We recall the significant supply shock in 2025 when attacks on Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain sent LME prices surging past $3,400/t. That event highlighted the market’s vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East. It fundamentally changed how we price risk for the entire metals complex. As of today, March 30, 2026, the market has not fully shaken off the impact of that disruption, with LME aluminium trading near $2,850/t. While regional production has shown some recovery, recent reports from the International Aluminium Institute show Gulf output still lags pre-2025 levels by an estimated 500,000 tonnes annually. Global inventories remain stubbornly low, sitting nearly 20% below the historical five-year average according to latest LME stock data. Given this tight fundamental backdrop, we believe positioning for renewed upside volatility is prudent. Acquiring medium-term call options provides exposure to potential price spikes that could result from any new logistical or political friction in the Strait of Hormuz. The current risk premium seems insufficient to cover the possibility of another major outage. A more conservative strategy involves using bull call spreads, which limits the upfront cost while still capturing significant upside. This is a practical way to position for a gradual price grind higher as the market continues to deal with the structural deficit created in 2025. This strategy performs well if prices re-test the $3,000/t level without another major supply shock. Implied volatility in the aluminium options market is still elevated compared to the period before the 2025 attacks, indicating that traders continue to price in a high degree of uncertainty. This environment makes selling cash-secured puts on sharp price declines an attractive income-generating strategy. It allows traders to collect premium while setting a lower, more desirable entry point for a long position.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 4:16 pm, by

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Trump says America holds serious talks with Iran’s new regime, warning energy strikes if negotiations fail

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the US is in “serious discussions” with what he called a “new and more reasonable regime” in Iran. He said the talks aim to end US military operations in Iran, and that progress has been made, with an agreement still possible. Trump warned that if a deal is not reached soon, and if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened to commercial traffic, the US could launch large strikes on Iran’s key energy infrastructure. He said the US could target electric generating plants, oil wells, Kharg Island and desalination plants.

Negotiations And Market Volatility

He also said these sites have so far been deliberately spared by US forces. In currency markets, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was around 100.30 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.10% on the day. With a new round of US-Iran negotiations scheduled for next month, we are looking back at the sharp rhetoric from 2025 as a critical playbook. The market is now pricing in significant volatility, as the outcome could either send crude oil prices soaring or cause a rapid decline. This binary risk is creating distinct opportunities for derivative traders who are prepared for a sharp move. Traders anticipating an escalation or failed talks should consider buying near-term call options on Brent crude futures. Given that Brent crude has already risen 8% this month to $92 a barrel on renewed tensions, out-of-the-money calls offer a leveraged bet on a potential spike toward the $110-$120 range. We are already seeing call volume for May and June contracts up 25% week-over-week, indicating this view is gaining traction. Conversely, the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough makes holding downside protection essential. We recall that after a minor de-escalation in the Red Sea in early 2025, oil prices fell nearly 12% in two weeks. Purchasing put options on the United States Oil Fund (USO) can serve as an effective hedge against a similar price collapse if a deal is announced. The elevated uncertainty itself is a tradable event, which is reflected in the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) recently hitting a 14-month high of 48. This suggests that option premiums are expensive, but strategies like long strangles could prove profitable if oil makes a major price move in either direction. The current setup is about positioning for a large swing, not betting on a specific direction.

Strait Of Hormuz Supply Risk

We must remember the physical reality behind these financial instruments, with the Strait of Hormuz being the key chokepoint. Latest shipping data confirms that nearly 22 million barrels per day, representing 21% of global consumption, are still transiting the strait. Any direct threat to this passage would trigger a price reaction far more severe than what we saw in 2025. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 4:15 pm, by

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Bob Savage says the euro weakens near 1.15 as sentiment indices slip below 100, dollar stays high

The euro has been under pressure, with EUR/USD near 1.15. EU and euro area economic sentiment indices have moved further below the long-term average of 100. EU economic sentiment declined by 1.5 points to 96.7 in March. Euro area sentiment fell 1.6 points to 96.6. The euro has been heavily sold due to stagflation and energy concerns. Rebalancing flows into the euro may be cautious because macro headwinds persist and price expectations are rising. Monthly smoothed flows since the end of February show INR and EUR as the most-sold currencies. The sell-off is linked to balance of payments worries and stagflation fears. Normal rebalancing would mean adding to INR and EUR and reducing exposure to CNY and BRL. The drivers behind recent positioning have not eased and may strengthen. Overall uncertainty increased across sectors. Price expectations rose, indicating weaker growth momentum. We are seeing the Euro continue to face significant pressure, with EUR/USD struggling to hold the 1.1500 level and recently touching a low of 1.1485. The latest flash estimate for April’s Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index dipped further to -18.5, confirming the poor economic sentiment. These figures underscore the market’s deep-seated stagflation and energy supply concerns. The usual month-end rebalancing flows that might normally support the Euro appear hesitant. With last week’s flash Eurozone HICP inflation data coming in hotter than expected at 4.8%, the European Central Bank remains in a difficult position. This fundamental headwind suggests that fading any short-term Euro strength is the prevailing strategy for now. For derivative traders, this environment points towards buying downside protection on the Euro. Implied volatility on one-month EUR/USD options has climbed to 9.5%, up from an average of 7.2% in the previous quarter, signaling that the market is bracing for larger price swings. We believe strategies like buying put options or establishing bear put spreads on EUR/USD could be effective in the coming weeks. We are seeing a very different market than we did in the third quarter of 2025 when a temporary easing of energy prices sparked a brief Euro rally. That optimism has completely vanished, and the persistent macro headwinds are now more entrenched. This history makes us skeptical of any potential recovery for the currency in the near term.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 4:15 pm, by

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Categories: Live Updates

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