AUD/USD was little changed on Wednesday, trading near 0.7040. The US Dollar eased as markets tracked the Middle East conflict, after US and Israeli strikes on targets in Iran and retaliatory attacks by Tehran on US bases in the region. The New York Times reported that Iran may have signalled openness to indirect talks with Washington via backchannel contacts involving the CIA. US officials remained cautious about near-term negotiations.

Us Data And Policy Signals

US data were mixed as ADP Employment Change showed private-sector jobs rose by 63K in February, above the 50K forecast. ADP said hiring was concentrated in a limited number of sectors. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects job creation this year and that growth should be led by the private sector. He also said tariffs could temporarily rise to around 15% during trade policy reviews. In Australia, ABS data showed GDP grew 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, up from 0.5% and above 0.6% expectations. Annual GDP increased 2.6%, up from 2.1% and above the 2.2% consensus. S&P Global’s Services PMI fell to 52.8 in February from 56.3, and Composite PMI eased to 52.4. Activity expanded for a seventeenth straight month, but growth cooled.

Key Events Ahead

Markets awaited ISM Services PMI on Wednesday and US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. Looking back at the market indecision of early 2025, we can see the landscape has changed significantly. The AUD/USD is now trading much lower, near 0.6520, a stark contrast to the 0.7040 level from a year ago when geopolitical flares dominated sentiment. While Middle East tensions remain a background risk, the market’s focus has shifted to the clear divergence in central bank policy. The Federal Reserve, after holding rates through most of 2025, initiated a cautious easing cycle late last year as inflation cooled towards its target. Recent data shows US headline CPI for January 2026 holding at 3.1%, while the last jobs report showed a robust gain of 275,000, suggesting the US economy can handle a less restrictive policy. This has put measured pressure on the US Dollar as rate cut expectations are priced in for the second half of the year. Conversely, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been forced to maintain its cash rate at 4.35% due to more persistent domestic inflation, which is currently tracking at a 4.1% annual rate. This contrasts sharply with the situation in 2025 when strong Australian GDP growth was merely a sign of resilience. Today, that resilience combined with sticky inflation has kept the RBA hawkish long after other central banks have pivoted. For derivative traders, this policy divergence suggests that volatility in the AUD/USD will remain elevated, particularly around key data releases. We believe positioning for price swings using long straddles or strangles ahead of the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls and Australian quarterly inflation reports could be a prudent strategy. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), while down from its 2025 highs, still sits at an elevated 14.5, indicating underlying market apprehension. Given the persistent interest rate differential favoring the US dollar, we see continued downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. Traders could consider buying AUD/USD put options to hedge against or speculate on a move towards the 0.6400 support level. This view is reinforced by recent data showing China’s Caixin Services PMI slowing to 52.5, a potential headwind for the proxy-currency Australian dollar. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The United States S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 51.9 in February. This was below expectations of 52.3. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. At 51.9, the index remained in expansion territory.

Composite Pmi Signals Slower Growth

The recent S&P Composite PMI data for February shows the economy is still growing, but at a slower pace than everyone expected. This miss, with an actual reading of 51.9 against a 52.3 forecast, is the first real sign that the economic momentum from late 2025 might be fading. This follows a January report where the PMI was a stronger 52.9, confirming a deceleration trend. This cooling data comes after we saw steady growth throughout 2025, which prompted the Federal Reserve to maintain a firm stance on interest rates. The latest jobs report, while still solid, showed annual wage growth slowing to 3.9%, and recent retail sales figures were flat. This pattern suggests that higher interest rates are finally starting to weigh on business and consumer activity. The market has been pricing in the possibility of one more Fed rate hike by summer, but this PMI number puts that expectation in doubt. This shift in thinking will likely cause uncertainty and repricing across asset classes in the coming weeks. We need to position ourselves for a potential increase in market choppiness. Given this slowdown, we should consider buying put options on major indices like the S&P 500. This strategy allows us to profit from a potential market dip as investors digest the weaker economic outlook. It’s a direct way to hedge our long positions or speculate on a near-term correction. We should also look at VIX call options, which are a bet on rising market volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently sitting near 14.5, but unexpected economic softness often causes this “fear gauge” to spike. Buying calls on the VIX is an effective way to profit from the uncertainty this PMI report creates.

Bond Trades If Fed Turns Dovish

Historically, signs of a slowing economy have led the Fed to pause its hiking cycles, which is bullish for bonds. Looking back to the late 2018 period, weakening PMI data preceded a Fed pivot and a significant rally in government debt. Therefore, we should consider going long on 10-year Treasury note futures (/ZN) to capitalize on a potential drop in interest rates. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The S&P Global US Services PMI came in at 51.7 in February. This was below the expected reading of 52.3. The February services data shows the economy is growing slower than we thought. This challenges the recent narrative of strong economic momentum and forces us to reconsider the pace of growth for the first quarter. This single data point, a miss on expectations, is enough to inject caution into the market.

Economic Momentum Repricing

This slowdown reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain its restrictive stance. We’ve seen the market price in a higher probability of a rate cut by the third quarter of 2026, with Fed funds futures now indicating a nearly 60% chance, up from 45% just last week. A cooling economy makes a hawkish Fed less likely. This PMI report follows January 2026’s softer-than-expected retail sales figures and a slight uptick in weekly jobless claims, which have been averaging 220,000 for the last month. This pattern of data confirms the economy is losing some of the surprising strength we saw in late 2025. Therefore, we should anticipate increased market volatility over the next few weeks. Given this, positioning for a rise in the VIX index from its current level of 14 seems sensible. Buying VIX calls or call spreads offers a direct way to profit from the uncertainty this data creates. We expect the index to test the 17-19 range as the market digests this potential slowdown. For equity index traders, this suggests a more defensive strategy. We should consider buying put options on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ETFs as a hedge or a speculative short position. Looking back, similar economic cooling periods, like the one we saw in the second quarter of 2025, resulted in a 5-7% pullback in major indices before finding a floor. The outlook for lower interest rates should also be considered in rate-sensitive derivatives. Buying call options on long-duration Treasury bond ETFs, like TLT, could be a profitable trade as yields fall in response to a weaker economy. This also implies potential weakness for the US Dollar, making positions against it attractive.

Rates Volatility Positioning

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EUR/USD was steady on Wednesday after briefly falling to a three-month low on Tuesday. It traded near 1.1626 as the US Dollar paused after a two-day rise, while the Euro drew some help from Eurozone data. Market conditions stayed cautious due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict. This supported risk-sensitive pricing, including in energy markets, and added uncertainty to inflation and central bank expectations.

Dollar Pauses Euro Finds Support

In the US, ADP private sector employment rose by 63K in February versus 50K expected, after 11K in January. Despite this, the US Dollar Index was near 98.91, after reaching about 99.68 on Tuesday, its highest since 28 November. In the Eurozone, PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month in January after -0.3% in December, above the 0.2% forecast. Year-on-year PPI fell 2.1% versus -2.7% forecast, compared with -2.0% previously, while unemployment eased to 6.1% from 6.2%. Markets priced about a 40% chance of an ECB rate rise by year-end. CME FedWatch showed a fully priced hold in March and April, with a 36.4% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in June, ahead of ISM services PMI and Friday’s NFP. Looking back at this time in 2025, we saw the EUR/USD pair trying to find its footing around 1.1626 after the US Dollar rally seemed to be taking a pause. Today, with the pair trading near 1.0850, it is clear that the pause was temporary and the dollar’s strength was the dominant trend over the last twelve months. The US Dollar Index, which was trading around 98.91 then, has since solidified its position, recently trading consistently above 104.

Positioning For Continued Dollar Strength

The fundamental driver has been the divergence in central bank policy, which defied market expectations from early 2025. While traders last year were pricing in a 40% chance of an ECB rate hike, the Eurozone’s cooling inflation through late 2025 led the ECB to instead begin cutting rates, with the first 25 basis point reduction coming in February 2026. Conversely, the dovish calls from Fed officials like Governor Miran for significant rate cuts in 2025 never materialized as the US economy remained resilient. Economic data has consistently reinforced this divergence, contrary to the optimistic European reports from January 2025. While Eurozone unemployment fell to 6.1% back then, it has since ticked up to 6.4% as of January 2026, weakening the case for a strong Euro. Meanwhile, the modest US private sector job growth of 63K seen in the February 2025 ADP report was dwarfed by a string of strong Nonfarm Payrolls reports, including last month’s addition of over 275,000 jobs. The geopolitical risk premium from the US-Iran conflict, a major concern for markets in March 2025, has since faded following de-escalation throughout the middle of last year. This removed a key inflationary pressure, allowing traders to focus more on the underlying weakness in the European economy compared to the United States. The shift has moved market concerns from supply-driven inflation to demand-driven growth differentials. Given this established trend, our focus should be on strategies that favor continued dollar strength against the euro. We should consider buying longer-dated EUR/USD put options with strike prices around 1.0700 to protect against further downside. Selling out-of-the-money call options with strike prices above 1.1000 could also be an effective strategy to collect premium, as a significant Euro recovery seems unlikely without a major policy shift from the Federal Reserve. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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DBS Group Research economists used a GDP Nowcast model to track India’s real GDP path. The model indicates strong growth in 4Q FY25, followed by softer growth in 1Q26. Using India’s rebased GDP series, real GDP rose 7.8% year-on-year in Oct–Dec 2025 (4Q FY25), down from 8.4% in Jul–Sep 2025. The quarter was linked to indirect tax changes, festive demand, firmer investment activity, and better rural farm outcomes.

Growth Momentum And Nowcast Signal

For FY26, the rebased series shows real GDP growth revised to 7.6% from a first advance estimate of 7.4%. This is close to a 7.7% forecast mentioned in the report. The Nowcast model projects 1Q26 growth easing to 7.2%. The softer pace is tied to weaker industrial activity, lower freight traffic, weaker goods exports, and slower passenger and commercial vehicle sales. For calendar year 2026, full-year growth is projected at 6.5%, compared with 7.8%. The article notes upside risks to this forecast. We are seeing signs that the strong growth from late 2025 is starting to cool off in the first quarter of this year. While the economy expanded rapidly through last year, current forecasts point to a moderation to around 7.2% for the January-to-March 2026 period. This shift suggests that the peak momentum we experienced might now be behind us.

Portfolio Hedging And Volatility Positioning

This expected slowdown introduces uncertainty, which could lead to higher market volatility in the coming weeks. The India VIX, a key measure of market fear, has already ticked up to 14.5 from the lows of around 12 we saw in the final quarter of 2025. For traders, this environment makes long-dated option buying strategies, such as straddles, potentially more attractive to play on increased price swings. Given the overall outlook, we should consider hedging our long portfolios. Buying Nifty 50 put options with April or May 2026 expiries could provide a cost-effective cushion against a potential market correction. The index has stalled after its strong run last year, and a break below its current support level could be a trigger for further downside. The moderation is particularly evident in specific sectors like automotive and logistics. Recent data from February 2026 showed commercial vehicle sales dipping by 4% year-on-year, confirming the weakness in freight traffic mentioned in forecasts. We could look at buying puts on select auto and logistics stocks or consider bearish futures positions on the auto index. Industrial and export-oriented stocks also appear vulnerable as we move further into 2026. The latest Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for January 2026 showed growth slowing to 3.5%, a noticeable drop from the over 5% average seen in the second half of 2025. This supports the view that writing covered calls on over-extended industrial stocks could be a prudent way to generate income while limiting upside risk. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Norwegian Krone has been among the best-performing currencies, supported by higher oil prices and a shift in expectations for Norges Bank after stronger inflation in January. Markets had earlier priced in possible rate cuts, but now expect there could even be rate rises over the course of the year. The currency’s recent strength is described as vulnerable to a pullback. Rate expectations could weaken if February inflation data, due next week, does not confirm the recent upward move in prices. Middle East tensions are also linked to support for the krone through oil. If the situation calms and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, this could lead to a rapid fall in oil prices and, in turn, the krone. The article states it was produced with the help of an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. It is attributed to the FXStreet Insights Team, which compiles selected market observations from named and internal analysts. We should recall how the hawkish Norges Bank expectations and strong oil prices supported the Norwegian Krone throughout 2025. That period saw the currency strengthen considerably as the central bank did indeed raise rates twice to a peak of 5.0%. The market at that time was pricing in the potential for even more hikes, which fueled the NOK’s gains. The situation has now changed as we move into the second quarter of 2026. Inflation has shown signs of easing, with the core reading for January 2026 falling to 4.2%, well off its highs from last year. This data softens the case for the central bank to remain aggressive, and forward markets are now pricing in a 60% chance of a rate cut before the end of the year. This divergence between last year’s hawkish reality and today’s dovish expectations suggests a period of higher volatility is likely. Traders could consider buying EUR/NOK straddles to profit from a significant price move in either direction as the market digests this policy shift. The implied volatility on NOK options has already ticked up from the lows we saw in late 2025. Furthermore, the vulnerability to oil prices, which was a key risk last year, is now becoming a reality. Brent crude has slipped below $88 a barrel, a notable drop from its average of over $95 in the final quarter of 2025, amid signs of easing geopolitical tensions. This removes a primary pillar of support for the krone and reinforces the bearish case. Given this, positioning for further NOK weakness seems prudent. Buying call options on EUR/NOK offers a defined-risk strategy to capitalize on a continued correction, which has already seen the pair rise from its 2025 lows near 11.20 to the current 11.65 level. Those with existing long NOK exposure should consider hedging against a further decline in oil by purchasing put options on Brent crude futures.

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National accounts released last Friday show the U.S. economy grew faster than Canada’s in 2025. It was the third straight year of U.S. outperformance and the seventh in the last eight years. Since 2022, U.S. real GDP growth has exceeded Canada’s. Canada’s weaker results are linked to softer consumption, exports and business investment.

Drivers Of The Growth Gap

Canadian household consumption has trailed by about 3% cumulatively since 2022. Export growth has lagged by a similar margin. Business investment rose by more than 10% in the U.S. since 2022 but did not increase in Canada. Residential investment has been broadly comparable between the two countries. Non-housing, private sector business investment in Canada has fallen more than 13% behind the U.S. Trade uncertainty is cited as a factor weighing on Canadian firms. Canadian government spending is expected to rise further in 2026. Even so, consensus forecasts the U.S. growth advantage will widen in 2026, despite stronger Canadian public spending.

Implications For Markets And Policy

The report attributes this to stronger private sector momentum in the U.S. and additional public sector support linked to the OBBB. The article was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. Given the persistent gap in economic performance where we see the U.S. continuing to outperform, the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD exchange rate appears to be upward. The lack of business investment in Canada, which we observed throughout 2025, undermines the Canadian dollar’s fundamental value. We can find recent data from Statistics Canada showing business capital expenditures in the fourth quarter of 2025 were flat, while the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a 2.1% increase for the same period. This economic divergence strongly suggests the Bank of Canada will be forced to maintain a more dovish stance than the U.S. Federal Reserve. A weaker economy with lagging consumption reduces any pressure on the BoC to keep rates high, creating a widening interest rate differential against the U.S. This interest rate spread is a primary driver for currency markets, favoring strategies that bet on a stronger U.S. dollar. For traders focused on equity markets, this trend supports a pairs trading strategy of being long U.S. indices and short Canadian ones. The S&P 500, driven by a more dynamic private sector, is likely to continue outperforming the S&P/TSX 60, which is heavily weighted in sectors sensitive to sluggish domestic investment. We saw this play out in 2025, where the S&P 500 returned over 9% while the TSX struggled to post a 2% gain. We can look back at the 2014-2016 period for a historical parallel, when a similar gap in economic momentum and monetary policy caused the USD/CAD to rally significantly. In the coming weeks, this suggests that buying call options on the USD/CAD exchange rate could offer a defined-risk way to profit from the expected continuation of this trend. Volatility in the pair is likely to pick up as markets price in this widening performance gap. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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NZD/USD rose 0.45% on Wednesday to about 0.5920 as the US Dollar weakened after two strong days. The US Dollar Index fell 0.25% to 98.80, while S&P 500 Futures pointed to a Wall Street rebound, aiding higher-beta currencies. Markets tracked rising tensions in the Middle East as the conflict entered its fifth day. The US and Israel increased air and missile strikes on targets in Iran, while Tehran launched missile and drone attacks on US bases and allied sites across the Gulf.

Geopolitical Risk And Market Reaction

The New York Times reported that Iran may have signalled openness to indirect talks with the US via backchannel intelligence contacts involving the CIA. US officials remained doubtful about near-term negotiations. US data were mixed, with the ADP Employment Change showing private payrolls up 63K in February, above the 50K forecast. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects job creation to improve this year and said tariffs could temporarily rise to around 15% during trade reviews. Traders awaited the ISM Services PMI later on Wednesday. Attention also stayed on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report as a guide to US labour conditions and Federal Reserve policy. We see the US Dollar’s retreat as a temporary pause rather than a change in trend, given the serious geopolitical backdrop. The escalating conflict in the Middle East is the dominant factor, creating a flight-to-safety environment that ultimately favors the dollar. Derivative traders should view this NZD/USD rebound as an opportunity to hedge against renewed dollar strength. The current market anxiety is clearly reflected in volatility metrics, with the VIX index holding stubbornly above 22, well above its long-term average. This signals that traders are paying a premium for protection against sudden price swings. We believe using options strategies like straddles on major currency pairs is wise to profit from the inevitable sharp move once there is more clarity from the Middle East.

Historical Context And Volatility Setup

Looking back at the market turmoil of 2025, we remember how quickly risk sentiment can shift and punish complacent positions. Similarly, the initial stages of the Ukraine conflict in 2022 taught us that geopolitical escalations typically lead to a sustained bid for the US Dollar. This historical precedent suggests the current dollar weakness is unlikely to last if tensions with Iran continue to rise. The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday is now the most critical economic data point for us. The recent ADP report, showing only 63K private sector jobs added, has set a very nervous tone, with consensus estimates for Friday’s NFP report now falling below 100K. A weak number could complicate the Federal Reserve’s path and inject even more volatility into the market. Given this combination of factors, we are positioning for sharp movements in the coming days. Implied volatility for one-week NZD/USD options has already surged to 14.8%, indicating that the market is bracing for a significant price swing around the NFP release. This is not a time for holding large, unhedged directional bets; instead, the focus should be on strategies that can capitalize on this heightened uncertainty. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve Governor, said it is too early to form firm views on how the conflict in Iran will affect the economy, in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Wednesday. He also said evidence that oil prices feed into core inflation is quite limited. He said the current situation differs from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 because monetary and fiscal policy were more expansionary then. He cited a 2-year trend of labour market weakening and said it is too early to dismiss that trend based on one or two months of data.

Policy Outlook And Inflation Risks

Miran said markets do not appear concerned about long-term inflation expectations. He said 1 pp of rate cuts would be appropriate this year. He said the Fed could undershoot its 2% inflation target if housing inflation decelerates as expected. He added it would be appropriate to keep cutting at the March meeting and that the conflict in Iran has not changed his outlook. He said he would like to continue with quarter-point cuts until the Fed reaches a neutral rate, and then reassess. With a clear signal for a rate cut at the upcoming March meeting, we should anticipate a continuation of the recent bull steepening in the yield curve. Derivative strategies that benefit from falling short-term rates, such as buying SOFR futures, seem well-supported. Fed funds futures are already pricing in an 85% probability of a 25-basis point cut this month, making this guidance a confirmation of market sentiment.

Market Volatility And Trading Implications

The official view that the conflict in Iran is not a major inflation concern helps to suppress market volatility. This suggests that selling volatility through strategies like shorting VIX futures or selling strangles on major indices could be advantageous. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has remained subdued around 15, a stark contrast to the spikes above 30 that we saw during the 2022 Ukraine crisis, indicating the market believes this event is contained. We see a deliberate effort to separate oil price movements from monetary policy decisions. Even as Brent crude futures have climbed 7% in the past month to over $86 a barrel, the message is that this will not provoke a hawkish response. Traders can therefore focus on oil-specific supply and demand factors without having to price in a corresponding Fed reaction. The focus on the two-year trend of a weakening labor market, rather than recent strong data, reinforces the commitment to easing policy. While the last jobs report showed a surprising gain of 250,000, we note the 6-month moving average has slowed to 165,000, continuing the cooling trend observed throughout 2025. This gives the Fed cover to continue its planned rate cuts despite any single month of strong numbers. There is a growing concern about inflation falling too far, particularly if housing costs decelerate as projected. With year-over-year growth in the national rent index already having slowed to 2.9% from over 5% last year, this risk of undershooting the 2% inflation target is credible. This outlook supports positions that would profit from rates being lower for longer than the market currently anticipates. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Deutsche Bank analysts Sanjay Raja and Shreyas Gopal say renewed energy price shocks are worsening uncertainty around the UK inflation outlook. They report oil prices are up nearly 15% this week, while spot gas prices are up 70%. They add that if these moves continue, expected disinflation in the UK could slow or stop. They expect pump prices to rise in coming months, and warn of a large change in dual fuel bills in July.

Energy Shock And Inflation Persistence

They say the 2022 energy shock remains relevant for the Bank of England when judging how long inflation may last. They warn that higher energy prices could affect inflation next year through second-round effects, including firm inflation expectations and higher wage settlements. They estimate about half of the UK CPI basket is highly sensitive to energy prices. They say this sensitivity extends beyond fuels to items such as food and services, and that services on average are more energy-intensive than core goods. They list travel fares, restaurants, and accommodation as services that are highly sensitive to energy prices. They conclude that this could affect the pace and size of Bank of England rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions are flaring up, creating a significant layer of uncertainty for the UK’s inflation outlook. Brent crude prices have jumped to nearly $98 a barrel this week following renewed disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and UK natural gas futures have followed suit. This sharp rise in energy costs is an immediate concern for the market.

Market Positioning And Asset Implications

This energy spike threatens the disinflationary path we saw for much of 2025. The latest CPI reading for February 2026 already showed inflation stalling at a stubborn 3.1%, and these higher energy prices will soon feed through to consumers at the pump. This situation puts the once-certain prospect of the UK leading disinflation among G7 economies at serious risk. For the Bank of England, the memory of the 2022 energy crisis will loom large, increasing fears of persistent inflation. This makes the Monetary Policy Committee less likely to initiate the rate cuts the market has been anticipating for the second quarter. The risk of second-round effects, such as higher wage demands, will make them exceptionally cautious. Given this, we should re-evaluate interest rate positions, as swaps markets are likely pricing in too many rate cuts for this year. Fading the current pricing on Short Sterling or SONIA futures could be a prudent move, anticipating that the Bank of England will hold rates higher for longer. This repricing could cause a significant move in front-end yields. This hawkish shift also has implications for currency and equity markets. A more hesitant Bank of England could provide support for the British Pound, making call options on GBP/USD attractive. Conversely, higher energy costs and borrowing rates squeeze domestic company margins, suggesting put options on the FTSE 250 index may offer a valuable hedge. Overall uncertainty means volatility is likely to increase across UK assets. We should consider strategies that profit from larger price swings, regardless of direction. Buying straddles on major UK indices or currency pairs could be an effective way to position for the turbulent weeks ahead. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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