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US-China discussions wrap up, and Trump is set to decide the next steps in trade negotiations.
The recent U.S.–China trade talks wrapped up, and Treasury Secretary Bessent called the meetings positive. The U.S. aims to improve its relationship with China. President Xi has invited President Trump for more discussions.
U.S. Trade Representative Greer mentioned a possible $50 billion drop in the U.S. trade deficit with China this year. At the same time, the U.S.–EU trade deal was praised, allowing the U.S. access to the $20 trillion European market. The EU is also committed to energy purchases and adjusting tariff structures.
Private oil inventory survey shows a crude build instead of the expected draw for distillates.
A private survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API) revealed an unexpected increase in crude oil stocks, against predictions of a 1.3 million barrel decrease. Expectations also included a 0.3 million barrel rise in distillates and a 0.6 million barrel drop in gasoline supplies.
This API survey collects data from oil storage sites and companies, which is different from the official government figures. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its official report on Wednesday morning.
EIA Report Details
Both the API and EIA reports provide insights into crude oil storage levels and changes from the previous week, but the EIA report is more detailed. It uses information from the Department of Energy and other government sources. Additionally, the EIA report focuses on refinery operations and presents data for various crude oil grades like light, medium, and heavy. Many view the EIA’s report as more accurate and complete compared to the API’s. Although both reports offer important data, they serve different functions in illustrating the state of the oil market. The private survey data from July 29, 2025, suggests that we may see a short-term decline in oil prices. The unanticipated increase in crude inventories, despite market expectations for a decrease, points to either lower refinery demand or higher supply. We will closely monitor the front-month WTI and Brent contracts for any bearish reactions overnight. This report adds uncertainty ahead of the official government figures. With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude recently priced over $82 per barrel, this API data could slow down the recent price rise. The official EIA reports have shown inventory reductions for three consecutive weeks, so a confirmed increase tomorrow would indicate a notable shift in market dynamics.Considerations and Forecasts
We need to focus on demand as well, especially for gasoline during the peak driving season. U.S. gasoline usage has remained stable at around 9.1 million barrels per day but hasn’t reached the strong levels seen in summers before the pandemic. If the EIA report confirms the API’s suggestion of decreasing demand, gasoline futures prices could drop, pulling crude oil prices down with them. Looking ahead, we anticipate increased volatility in the weeks to come. We’re entering the most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season, and recent NOAA forecasts expect more named storms than usual. A major storm in the Gulf of Mexico could disrupt production and cause prices to rise sharply, quickly reversing any bearish inventory trends. For derivatives, it’s wise to remain cautious about making directional bets until the EIA confirms a trend. We see an opportunity to hedge against downside risk, possibly by buying put options on crude oil futures that expire in the next few weeks. Given the mixed signals, strategies that benefit from a spike in volatility, like a long straddle, might also be worth considering ahead of tomorrow’s official report. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Major U.S. stock indices closed lower as caution prevails before important upcoming events.
Major U.S. stock indices ended lower, with significant drops in the Russell 2000 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Although the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reached record highs during the day, they closed lower as momentum faded.
Investors remained cautious due to important upcoming events, including earnings reports from Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft. Additionally, the U.S. GDP report and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision are imminent, along with the U.S. jobs report expected this week.
Market Performance
The Dow fell by 204.57 points (-0.46%), closing at 44,632.99. The S&P 500 dropped 18.91 points (-0.30%) to finish at 6,370.86. The NASDAQ decreased by 80.29 points (-0.3%), ending at 21,098.29, while the Russell 2000 fell by 13.76 points (-0.61%) to 2,242.96. Stocks like Whirlpool, PayPal, and Rivian Automotive saw significant losses, with drops of 13.43%, 8.68%, and 5.23% respectively. Boeing and Uber Technologies also experienced declines. In after-hours trading, companies like Electronic Arts and Visa beat earnings expectations but their shares dropped by 1.62% and 3.07%, respectively. Conversely, Starbucks rose by 4.48% despite missing its earnings target.Focus on Volatility
The market is taking a pause after reaching new highs, signaling caution. This week is packed with significant events, including the Fed’s rate decision, the GDP report, and Friday’s job numbers, suggesting that big price swings could be on the horizon. With uncertainty in the air, we are focusing on implied volatility, which is crucial for option pricing. The VIX index, which measures expected volatility, has risen to 15.2, indicating that traders are preparing for larger price moves. This makes strategies like straddles or strangles, which benefit from big price changes in either direction, appealing as we approach Thursday’s data. We are closely watching how stocks react to positive news, as this reveals market sentiment. For instance, both Visa and Seagate exceeded expectations but saw their shares drop, indicating that the market is priced for perfection and quick to take profits. This suggests that even a strong earnings report from Apple or Amazon may not be enough to ignite a rally. The market widely expects the Fed to maintain current interest rates, with a 90% probability of a pause according to the CME FedWatch tool. The focus will be on the Fed’s comments for hints about future policy. Additionally, with Q2 GDP growth projected at 1.9%, any significant change could lead to a sharp market reaction. The drop in smaller companies, as seen in the Russell 2000, along with declines in high-growth stocks from the ARKK ETF, indicates a shift away from risk. We view this as an opportunity to buy protective puts on volatile individual stocks or broad market ETFs, acting as insurance in case the economic data falls short of expectations. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Visa beats earnings expectations thanks to strong cross-border growth and consistent consumer spending despite uncertainty.
Visa Inc. reported impressive third-quarter earnings that beat expectations, thanks to rising cross-border volumes and steady consumer spending. For the quarter ending June 30, the revenue hit $10.2 billion, surpassing the $9.87 billion forecast. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $2.98, compared to the anticipated $2.85.
The company processed 65.4 billion transactions, which was in line with estimates, while cross-border volumes rose by 12% in constant currency. The net profit reached $5.3 billion, or $2.69 per share, up from last year’s $4.9 billion, or $2.40 per share. Year-on-year payment volumes also increased by 8%.
Visa’s net revenue grew 14% from last year to $10.17 billion, driven by increased card usage both domestically and internationally. The cross-border transaction volumes showed strength in international travel and commerce, growing by 12%. Despite some caution in consumer spending, payment volume still rose by 8%.
Despite economic and geopolitical uncertainties, including U.S. trade policies, Visa is well-positioned for growth. Its network effect enhances its presence in electronic payments and digital commerce. Although no specific guidance was provided, there’s confidence in long-term growth from digital payment adoption and partnerships.
Given this strong performance, we expect positive reactions for Visa’s stock price. The better-than-expected revenue and earnings per share are likely to attract buyers in the coming days. We might consider bullish strategies, such as buying near-term call options or selling cash-secured puts, to take advantage of this momentum.
However, we should remain cautious about the broader economic signals. Recent data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicates that while consumer spending is still strong, its growth rate is starting to slow. The latest jobs report shows a steady unemployment rate of about 4.1%, but wage growth has slowed, which may squeeze household budgets.
This situation offers opportunities in the options market, especially around volatility. Implied volatility for Visa was high before this earnings report and is likely to drop now that uncertainties have been resolved. This makes selling option premiums, such as covered calls on existing stock or put credit spreads, a smart way to earn income.
We need to stay alert to geopolitical risks, particularly concerning trade policy. Any substantial news about new tariffs could quickly wipe out gains and lead to unpredictable market movements. Thus, any short put positions we consider should be managed carefully, perhaps using wider spreads to accommodate price fluctuations.
Historically, Visa stock tends to perform well in the months following a strong earnings report, but this largely depends on overall market stability. The main takeaway for us is to remain cautiously optimistic, favoring strategies that benefit from potential stock price increases and falling implied volatility.
Analysts eagerly await Australian inflation data ahead of the Reserve Bank’s upcoming meeting.
Today’s Australian inflation data is important as it could affect the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decisions. The RBA’s meeting is scheduled for August 11-12, and many expect a 25 basis point rate cut after the last meeting when rates stayed the same.
Key Details on Inflation Data
Everyone is focused on the core inflation rate, known as the ‘trimmed mean,’ which comes from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. You’ll find this measure labeled as ‘RBA Trimmed Mean’ in the economic data calendar. The economic data calendar shows times in GMT, with last month’s or quarter’s results on the right. Next to these figures is the consensus median expectation, which serves as a benchmark for comparison. Today’s inflation data is crucial for shaping the RBA’s future strategy, particularly regarding changes in monetary policy. We have the latest quarterly inflation figures, which are essential for the Reserve Bank. The core trimmed mean reading, released earlier today, showed a 0.7% increase for the quarter. This is slightly below the market expectation of 0.8%. This result supports our belief that the RBA is likely to act at its upcoming meeting on August 11-12.Market Reactions and Predictions
In response to the inflation data, interest rate derivatives are making a significant move. The ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures for August now indicate an 85% chance of a 25 basis point cut. This is up from the 70% chance before this morning’s inflation data was released. For currency traders, this weaker inflation report is putting pressure on the Australian dollar. We expect the AUD/USD pair to test lower levels leading up to the RBA decision. Using put options could be a smart strategy now that this crucial data has aligned with market trends. This situation reminds us of the 2016-2019 period when the RBA made several rate cuts because inflation consistently stayed below its 2-3% target range. This historical pattern gives us confidence that the central bank will consider further easing. We believe the current situation will follow a similar path. The weak inflation data does not come alone; it follows recent disappointing retail sales figures, which showed a 0.3% contraction in June. Given this backdrop, we should prepare for the RBA to announce the expected 25 basis point cut. The focus will then shift to the bank’s guidance for the future to assess its willingness to ease further this year. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Starbucks, Visa, and Booking Holdings are expected to release earnings reports after market close.
After the market closes, three companies will share their earnings reports.
**Starbucks** is expected to announce a Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of **$0.96** and revenue of **$9.29 billion**. Right now, Starbucks shares are priced at **$92.61**.
**Visa** is predicted to report a Q3 2025 EPS of **$2.41** and revenue of **$8.65 billion**. Currently, Visa shares are at **$351.03**.
**Booking Holdings** will reveal its Q2 2025 earnings, with a forecasted EPS of **$39.79** and revenue of **$5.97 billion**. The shares are trading at **$5,609**.
As we approach the earnings reports set for **July 29, 2025**, we expect increased short-term volatility. Implied volatility is high for these stocks, offering opportunities for traders who predict a drop in premiums after the announcements. We plan to focus on short-term price movements and the volatility in the weeks that follow.
For **Starbucks**, we take a cautious approach despite solid expectations. Recent consumer data shows a **1.5% decline** in foot traffic across the U.S. for June, raising concerns about their future guidance. We are considering straddles or strangles to take advantage of any larger-than-expected price movement in either direction, or buying put spreads for downside protection.
After **SBUX** reports earnings, we aim to sell premium. If the stock drops to an appealing level, we will sell cash-secured puts with August expirations, allowing us to either generate income or purchase shares at a lower price. If the stock rises, we may consider selling call spreads above the new price to benefit from the falling volatility.
**Visa’s** performance closely mirrors consumer spending trends. Recent data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicates a modest **0.3% increase** in personal spending last month, which should help Visa’s transaction volumes. We believe the risks are balanced, making an iron condor strategy a good fit for betting that the stock will stay within a certain price range.
For **Booking Holdings**, the focus will be on their insights about summer travel patterns. Recent TSA data shows that passenger traffic is up **7%** compared to the same time last year, hinting at a strong travel season. Given the high share price, we will only consider debit and credit spreads to manage our risk when making directional bets.
With Booking’s share price at **$5,609**, trading standard options can be too expensive for many traders. Therefore, we are using call spreads to pursue an upside surprise, expecting solid results from the busy spring and early summer travel period. If the stock declines, we’ll look to sell bullish put spreads in the upcoming weeks, betting on continued strong travel demand.
GBP/USD rebounds but stays below resistance, with sellers in control
The GBPUSD has bounced from its lows and is nearing a key resistance zone between 1.33607 and 1.3378. This area includes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the rise in April, located at 1.3375.
Buyers are having difficulty breaking through this resistance, showing that sellers still have the upper hand. If the price goes above this range, the outlook could shift to neutral in the short term. Staying below this level keeps sellers in control, especially with the Federal Reserve meeting approaching.
GBP/USD Price Action
We are watching the GBP/USD pair pause just under the important 1.3375 level. This point is critical resistance, and while the price remains below it, we believe sellers are in charge. Today’s price movement shows a clear struggle at this technical ceiling. The main factor influencing our strategy is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision scheduled for tomorrow, July 30, 2025. Expectations are leaning towards a hawkish hold, which could strengthen the US dollar and push GBP/USD lower. The current market pause suggests that traders are positioning themselves ahead of this significant event. Recent economic data from the UK supports a weaker pound. Last week’s core inflation reading was 2.8%, slightly above the target, but not enough to prompt action from the Bank of England. A surprising 0.5% drop in June retail sales adds to the sense of a fragile UK economy, making it hard for the pound to make a strong rally. In contrast, the US Non-Farm Payroll report showed an addition of 215,000 jobs, indicating economic strength. This resilience gives the Federal Reserve more leeway to maintain a tough stance against inflation. This fundamental difference supports our bearish view on the GBP/USD pair.Derivative Trading Opportunity
For those trading derivatives, we see a chance to buy near-term put options with a strike price below 1.3300. This strategy lets us profit from a possible downturn after the Fed announcement while limiting our loss to the premium paid. An expiration in August 2025 would capture the immediate market reaction and any follow-up movements. Historically, GBP/USD volatility can easily double on Fed announcement days, occasionally moving over 200 pips. We saw similar trends during the 2022-2023 rate hike cycle, where drops in price before central bank meetings often led to accelerated declines. We expect a similar pattern may emerge this week. If the pair unexpectedly breaks and closes above the 1.3378 resistance zone, our bearish outlook would be invalidated in the short term. This would indicate that buyers have absorbed the selling pressure. At that point, we would shift to a neutral stance and consider closing any short positions in derivatives. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Crude oil prices rise by 3.75% due to potential sanctions on Russian oil purchases.
President Trump has suggested possible sanctions on Russian oil, which could take effect within ten days. The proposed tariffs would target countries that continue buying Russian oil, and these tariffs are likely to be significant.
This news has caused crude oil prices to rise. The price has exceeded the 200-day moving average of $67.97.
Crude Oil Price Surge
Trump’s announcement led prices to peak at an intraday high of $69.41, nearing the resistance level of $69.61 seen on July 14. By the end of trading, crude oil was priced at $69.21, marking an increase of $2.50 or 3.75%. Crude oil prices are climbing due to new threats of tighter sanctions on Russian energy exports. The market is reacting to reports of the EU considering stricter enforcement of its price cap. There is growing concern over potential supply disruptions as we head into the high-demand winter season. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has surpassed the crucial $85 per barrel mark, closing around $85.15 today. This rise clears the 50-day moving average, which is a positive sign for the short term. Russian seaborne exports remain around 3.4 million barrels per day, and new measures could affect this volume.Volatility and Risk Management
For derivative traders, expect higher volatility in the coming weeks. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has already jumped to 38, indicating larger price fluctuations. We are considering buying call options to take advantage of potential price increases or using call spreads to manage entry costs. We remember the price spike to over $120 a barrel in 2022 when sanctions were first widely implemented. While we don’t expect such a drastic increase again, it highlights how quickly prices can respond to supply concerns. The market remembers this event, which is fueling current buying pressure. Traders with long positions in futures contracts should pay attention to their risk management strategies. Using trailing stops could be a wise way to secure profits if the geopolitical situation improves unexpectedly. Staying flexible is important, as headlines are likely to influence trading for the rest of the quarter. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) operates a cloud-based AI lending platform focused on personal and auto loans.
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) operates a cloud-based AI lending platform in the United States. It offers personal and auto loans and is traded on Nasdaq under the ticker “UPST.”
Since hitting a low of $11.93 in May 2023, UPST has been rising, aiming to go beyond the previous low of $31.40 from April 2025. If it breaks above the high of February 2025, this may indicate a further upward trend. The highest point recorded was $401.49 in October 2021.
After May’s low, the stock could achieve five gains. It is set to move higher, having formed important highs and lows throughout 2023 and early 2025.
Currently, wave (3) has significantly extended. We expect it to rise to the range of $84.68 – $89.82 while staying above $73.00, before making a correction in wave (4).
Foreign exchange trading carries risks that require careful consideration of your goals and tolerance for risk. It’s possible to lose some or all of your initial investment due to high leverage. If you’re unsure about the risks in forex trading, please consult a financial advisor.
We continue to monitor the stock’s upward journey from May 2023’s low of $11.93. We anticipate it will surpass the $31.40 mark set in April 2025. A rise above the February 2025 high would confirm more momentum.
For those trading derivatives, this could be a chance to position for a short-term rally. We are looking at buying call options due to expire in late August or September to take advantage of this expected movement. Using call spreads may be a smart strategy to counter high implied volatility in this stock, particularly around corporate announcements.
This positive outlook is backed by recent macroeconomic trends. Government data from Q2 2025 reported a slight but encouraging increase in consumer loan originations. With the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates steady this summer, the lending environment appears more stable than in 2024. Generally, times without rate hikes boost investor confidence in financial tech companies.
A significant event is approaching, with the company’s Q2 earnings report expected around August 12, 2025. Current data shows that short interest remains above 25% of the float, which could lead to a potential short squeeze if positive news arises. This aligns well with the Elliott wave prediction for a strong move towards the target zone of $84.68 – $89.82.
We maintain a positive outlook as long as the price stays above the support level of $73.00. If the price drops below this level, it would suggest a corrective wave has begun, prompting a reevaluation of any long positions. We will use this price point as our key level for managing risk in the upcoming weeks.
After a trade deal announcement, the US dollar continues to gain strength in the market.
The US Dollar is holding strong following a significant daily increase, thanks to a US-EU trade agreement. The Dollar Index (DXY) rose over 2.0% in July, marking its first monthly gain since December. Meanwhile, US JOLTS Job Openings dropped to 7.437 million in June, falling short of expectations, which suggests a cooling labor market.
The US Dollar Index is stabilizing around the 99.00 level, its highest since June 23. This is supported by reduced trade tensions and strong economic fundamentals. The index has bounced back from its low of 96.38 on July 1, aided by trade deals with the EU, Japan, and others. Strong economic data has further strengthened the US Dollar.
