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The Housing Price Index in the United States matches predictions, indicating a 0.2% decrease.
The United States Housing Price Index in May dropped by 0.2% compared to the previous month, aligning with expectations. This trend shows a steady cooling in the US housing market without any surprises.
The AUD/USD currency pair weakened again, falling to a two-week low after breaking below the 0.6500 support level. This was the fourth straight session of decline, driven by a stronger US Dollar.
The EUR/USD also pulled back, reaching around 1.1520, a level not seen since late June. This movement occurred alongside a rally in the US Dollar and recent announcements about US-EU trade agreements.
Gold prices are stabilizing at around $3,330 per troy ounce, following a recovery. This stabilization is occurring amid a stronger US Dollar and lower yields.
Ripple (XRP) is moving sideways and holding crucial support at $3.00 but is under significant pressure. Attempts to recover from a 16% drop from its peak of $3.66 have mostly failed.
On the economic policy front, there’s growing scrutiny over the Fed’s decision to delay interest rate cuts. Ongoing tariff issues and a strong economy are cited as reasons for this pause, but concerns about their impact on the market remain.
As of July 29, 2025, the expected drop in the United States Housing Price Index suggests the market is cooling rather than collapsing. This gradual adjustment, along with the S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index showing similar small declines over the past quarter, allows the central bank to keep its current policies. Traders should look for opportunities that benefit from high-interest rates in the near term.
The ongoing delay in rate cuts is driving a strong rally in the US Dollar, which is likely to be the key theme in the upcoming weeks. The Dollar Index (DXY) has recently surpassed 107.50—its highest level since early last year—reflecting how the market is adjusting to this difference in policies. We believe that long positions on the dollar against other major currencies will likely remain profitable.
As a result, we are considering put options on the Australian dollar, especially after it fell below the 0.6500 mark. Similarly, with the Euro dropping to a five-week low around 1.1520, opportunities arise for shorting EUR/USD futures since the European Central Bank has taken a more dovish approach compared to the US. The widening gap between the central banks’ policies presents a clear trend for traders.
Gold continues to hold its high valuation despite the pressures from currencies. This strength is backed by U.S. 10-year Treasury yields falling below 3.4%, which traditionally boosts the appeal of non-yielding assets. We expect the gold market to remain stable, making strategies like selling covered calls or establishing strangles appealing to profit from its consolidation around $3,330.
The crypto market is facing notable weaknesses, and we are cautious about whether it can maintain the $3.00 support level. The overall sentiment in the crypto market, as indicated by the Fear & Greed Index, has shifted back to “Fear” below 40, reflecting a general bearish outlook. We would consider buying put options or initiating short positions if the price fails to rebound, as breaking through this psychological level could lead to a quick decline.
USTR Greer confirms talks about pausing China’s tariffs; Trump has control over extensions and decisions
US trade representatives Greer and Bessent recently met with Chinese officials. They discussed pausing tariffs on Chinese goods, considering a possible 90-day extension by Trump.
No changes were made to export controls during these talks. If Trump chooses not to extend the pause, tariffs may go back to the levels from April 2 or be adjusted to a level he decides. The U.S. raised concerns about China buying 90% of Iranian oil, but they did not discuss issues like TikTok or the surplus in Chinese manufacturing.
Stock Market Reactions
Stock markets dropped: the Dow Industrial Average fell by 0.42%, the S&P by 0.21%, and the NASDAQ by 0.26%. In the U.S. Treasury market, yields neared their lowest points, with the 2-year at 3.887% (down by 3.3 basis points), the 5-year at 3.920% (down by 6.2 basis points), the 10-year at 4.344% (down by 7.6 basis points), and the 30-year at 4.881% (down by 8.3 basis points). The decision about tariffs is up to Trump, which will determine if they will stay paused or go back up. A future meeting with China could happen in 90 days. This uncertainty is making the market uneasy. With the August 12 tariff deadline coming, lack of a clear agreement raises risks. Traders are anxious as the final decision rests with the President. Such uncertainty increases market volatility, which is crucial for derivative traders. We’re monitoring the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which is around 15, a relatively calm level. This indicates that the market might not be fully prepared for the risk of tariffs returning next month.Market Protection Strategy
To protect against potential losses, we suggest considering buying protection in the next two weeks. Purchasing put options on major indices like the S&P 500 (SPX) or the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) can provide insurance. These options would gain value if the market drops due to negative tariff news after the deadline. The fundamental issues, like the manufacturing surplus, continue to be significant challenges. Recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows a goods trade deficit with China over $72 billion in the first quarter of 2025. This ongoing imbalance supports the government’s tough position. Looking back to the 2018–2019 trade war, the S&P 500 experienced several corrections of more than 10%, with volatility spiking above 30. A similar return of tariffs could lead to a repeat of these trends. With treasury yields falling, the bond market is signaling a move toward safety, reinforcing the need for cautious positions in stocks. The decrease in yields suggests that large investors are bracing for a possible economic slowdown if trade tensions rise. This scenario also affects currency markets. A risk-off trend could strengthen the US dollar as a safe haven, leading to weaker currencies tied to global trade and China, such as the Australian dollar (AUD). Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.US Bureau of Labor Statistics to release JOLTS data predicting a decline in job openings
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 7.43 million job openings at the end of June, a decrease from 7.71 million in May. Analysts had predicted 7.55 million openings. Hires remained steady at 5.2 million, while separations held at 5.1 million. The quit rate stayed unchanged at 3.1 million.
The US Dollar Index continued its rise, increasing by 0.35% to reach 99.00. The Dollar showed the strongest performance against the Euro, with a 1.91% change. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is important because it highlights the supply and demand in the job market.
Labor Market Trends
Markets expected a drop in Job Openings for June to 7.55 million. Federal Reserve policymakers are watching labor market conditions closely, as these can impact interest rate decisions. If Job Openings fall below 7 million unexpectedly, this could shift expectations for a rate cut in September. The CME FedWatch Tool shows low chances for a rate cut at the Federal Reserve meeting on July 29-30. A report that aligns with market expectations would likely support the US Dollar’s strength. The forecast for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish, as technical indicators show negative trends. The labor market is cooling off, which is what policymakers wanted. The recent drop in job openings to 7.43 million is slightly below analyst expectations. This gradual slowdown, with no spike in unemployment, suggests that the economy is easing rather than collapsing. This data means Federal Reserve policymakers might not feel rushed to consider a rate cut at their meeting this week. Many expect the July meeting to result in no change, leading attention to shift toward the September meeting. Any significant declines in employment or inflation data might change their cautious approach.Monetary Policy Outlook
Recent reports indicate that core inflation is consistently around 2.8% year-over-year, which is above the central bank’s target of 2%. The CME FedWatch Tool reflects this uncertainty, suggesting a 45% chance of a rate cut in September. Upcoming data releases will be crucial. In contrast, the European Central Bank appears more open to cutting rates due to weaker growth forecasts in the region. In this context, we expect the US Dollar Index to stay strong and potentially strengthen beyond the 99.00 level. A robust economy and a patient central bank support the Dollar. Investing strategies should focus on benefiting from this continued dollar strength in the coming weeks. There’s a strong case for bearish positions on the EUR/USD pair, which has already demonstrated weakness against the Dollar. Consider buying put options on the Euro or selling out-of-the-money call options. This approach is supported by differing monetary policies on either side of the Atlantic. The main risk to this outlook is an unexpectedly sharp decline in the next Non-Farm Payrolls report or a sudden rise in the unemployment rate. Historically, rapid downturns in the labor market, like those seen during the 2008 financial crisis, can quickly change rate expectations and weaken the Dollar. Such changes would increase the likelihood of a more aggressive rate-cutting approach. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The Redbook Index for the United States decreased to 4.9%, down from 5.1% year-on-year.
The United States Redbook Index, which tracks retail sales growth year-over-year, dipped slightly from 5.1% in July to 4.9%. This shows a small drop in retail performance compared to the previous month.
EUR/USD recovered, rebounding from recent lows and testing the 1.1550 level amid a strong US Dollar. GBP/USD also rose from lows near 1.3300, with the US Dollar’s upward trend starting to show some signs of slowing.
Gold and Ethereum Movements
Gold appears to be stabilizing around $3,330 per troy ounce, influenced by a stronger US Dollar and mixed trade news. On the other hand, Ethereum hit a yearly high of $3,941, supported by strong institutional demand, which added 1.6 million ETH in recent weeks. There are questions about the Federal Reserve’s timing for cutting interest rates, as the economy remains stable but trade uncertainties linger. Some experts believe the Fed’s delay could be affecting the job market. The small drop in the Redbook Index to 4.9% could be a warning sign for consumer strength. With the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index also falling to 96.5, its lowest this year, we think strategies on retail-focused ETFs should lean towards cautious neutrality to bearishness. Weak consumer data often hints at changes in monetary policy.Currency Market Opportunities
The US Dollar’s easing momentum is creating chances in currency markets, especially as EUR/USD tests the 1.1550 resistance level. Recent comments from European Central Bank officials have been more hawkish compared to those from the U.S., giving the euro an edge for now. We are considering short-term call options on the euro and pound, betting that the dollar’s softness will continue into August. The debate around when to cut rates is heating up, particularly as initial jobless claims have risen for three weeks straight, now at 245,000. This slight dip in the labor market might push the central bank to act sooner than expected, leading to volatility in interest rate futures. A surprise rate cut could be a genuine possibility if the next non-farm payrolls report shows hiring below 150,000. Gold’s tight range around $3,330 suggests the market is waiting for clear signals on inflation or policy. Historically, when the Fed is indecisive, precious metals can experience sharp moves once a direction is determined. We are maintaining protective put positions on major equity indices, using gold’s price stability as a hedge for our portfolio. The surge in Ethereum to a new yearly high near $3,941 is a strong bullish signal backed by institutional interest. Recent data indicating over $5 billion in net inflows into spot crypto ETFs last quarter reinforces this ongoing trend. We are opting for long-dated call options on Ether, as its momentum seems to be unaffected by the broader market’s concerns. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.USDCHF rallies towards 38.2% retracement as it hits new highs for July
USDCHF has risen above the swing area between 0.8054 and 0.80628, reaching new highs for July. Prices have briefly fluctuated around this zone, and the latest dip only fell to 0.80545, showing that buyers are active.
Short-Term Buyer Control
If USDCHF drops below 0.80545, it would break the short-term bullish trend. As long as this level holds, buyers remain in charge. The next important target is the 38.2% retracement from the May high to July low at 0.8102. Moving above this level indicates a stronger bullish trend after a period of decline. Recent trends include: – Support at the 100-hour moving average, which is at 0.7975. – A clear break above the 200-hour moving average at 0.79828, which is now trending upward. – Early Asian session support between 0.8017 and 0.8023, confirming buyer strength. Even with recent short-term gains, USDCHF is down 11.14% for the year from its December close of 0.9077. The decline this year reached its lowest levels since 2011, bottoming out at 0.78719. However, climbing above April’s low of 0.8032 and the key hourly swing area suggests buyers are trying to stabilize the currency pair and push it higher. The main question is whether the bullish momentum will continue or if sellers will take control again. Today is July 29, 2025. The recent rise above 0.8054 signals a chance for short-term bullish plays. Traders may consider buying call options with expiries in mid-August to take advantage of this momentum. The immediate target is to ride the wave to the 0.8102 resistance level. This movement is supported by a growing policy gap between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank. Recent U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June showed a year-over-year increase of 2.3%, slightly above expectations. This suggests continuing price pressures, keeping the Fed’s stance hawkish. In contrast, the SNB has remained dovish to avoid excessive appreciation of the franc, which could hurt Swiss exports.Key Resistance and Risk Management
As the pair approaches the key resistance at 0.8102, caution is warranted. This level is a significant 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire drop from May to July. Failing to break through this level would suggest that sellers are coming back. If we see a clear rejection from this zone, we might consider buying put options or closing bullish positions. For those wanting to manage risk, a bull call spread might be effective in the coming weeks. This could involve buying an August 0.8050 call option and selling an August 0.8100 call option. This strategy caps both potential profit and loss, allowing for gains if prices rise while limiting risk if the rally loses steam before reaching the target. Historically, major reversals in USDCHF have required a fundamental change, not just a bounce. While the currency has recovered from the 0.78719 low earlier this month, it remains well below the 0.9077 level seen at the beginning of the year. This ongoing bearish trend means that any bullish positions must be handled with care. Ultimately, the market is assessing whether this represents a true recovery or just a temporary bounce in a longer-term bearish trend. A sustained break above 0.8102 would indicate a significant shift, whereas dropping back below 0.8054 would suggest that sellers are still dominant. The upcoming price action will provide further direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.US and China reach agreement to extend trade truce
The second day of talks between the US and China ended with both sides describing the discussions as open and productive. Li, China’s chief trade negotiator, mentioned that both teams continued to use the trade consultation mechanism.
They recognized the importance of keeping healthy and stable relations between the two countries. They had in-depth discussions on macroeconomic issues and reviewed the implementation of the Geneva consensus.
Trade Truce Extended
China and the US decided to extend the trade truce, which means they will pause reciprocal tariffs and any countermeasures from China. Both parties pledged to keep communicating. This extension of the trade truce is a major step back from conflict. It helps reduce market worries, likely reducing the VIX from its recent highs near 17 to the 13-14 range. This suggests a calmer trading period in the weeks to come. With implied volatility expected to decrease, there are opportunities to sell options. Strategies like covered calls on current stocks or selling cash-secured puts on stocks we want at lower prices become more appealing. The aim is to benefit from the decline in option prices in a less volatile market.Impact On Markets
We anticipate a relief rally in sectors heavily affected by trade tensions, particularly semiconductors. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), sensitive to trade news, could see a significant rise. We might consider purchasing short-dated call options to take advantage of this possible increase. Agricultural commodities, seen as tools in the trade dispute, should also gain. We expect increased Chinese purchases could lift November soybean futures (ZS1!), which have been trading within a narrow range. Historically, even a hint of a truce has led to double-digit rallies in soybean prices over a few weeks. This stability could also positively affect Chinese stocks, which have struggled due to economic uncertainty. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) might reach its year-to-date high as global investments return to the region. Using options on major Chinese ADRs or ETFs like FXI offers a good way to invest in this. However, we should remember that this is just a pause, not a complete solution to geopolitical issues. While we are selling near-term volatility, it may be wise to maintain some long-term protection in our portfolio. The core disagreements remain, meaning volatility could easily return later this year. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.As retirement planning shifts to personal savings, IRAs become essential for the financial futures of American adults
Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) are crucial for retirement planning in the U.S. as people increasingly depend on personal savings. A study by Fidelity looked at 16.8 million IRA accounts to examine average balances by age. This data provides insights into how much you should ideally save at different life stages.
The average IRA balances by generation are as follows:
– Generation Z: $6,672
– Millennials: $25,109
– Generation X: $103,952
– Baby Boomers: $257,002
This trend highlights the advantages of starting an IRA early, enabling growth through compounding and regular contributions.
Fidelity recommends saving benchmarks based on your age. By your 30s, you should aim to save an amount equal to your annual salary. By your 60s, you should try to have saved 8 to 10 times your salary. For instance, if your annual salary is $75,000, you should target $225,000 in savings by age 40.
IRAs often complement or replace 401(k)s and are essential as traditional pensions become rare. Traditional IRAs provide tax deductions on contributions, while Roth IRAs allow tax-free withdrawals. Consistent contributions and investments focused on growth can significantly increase your retirement savings over time.
To enhance your savings, automate your contributions and gradually increase them. Starting early offers substantial benefits, but it’s never too late to start saving and adjusting your approach.
The stark differences in retirement savings among generations indicate a shift in capital management. Wealthy older investors are focused on preserving their capital, while younger individuals have less to invest. This gap reveals that broad market indices might not show the full story behind the economic challenges.
Baby Boomers, the largest group of savers, are now retiring, with an average of over $250,000 in their accounts. Around 10,000 Boomers retire each day, likely moving their funds from growth stocks to safer, income-generating assets like bonds and dividend-paying stocks. This shift could lead to sustained selling pressure on high-volatility tech and growth sectors.
Younger generations face dwindling disposable income for investments, further impacted by recent inflation at around 3.1%. With U.S. credit card debt exceeding $1.1 trillion, we expect these groups to reduce discretionary spending as the back-to-school season approaches. This trend hints at weakness in consumer discretionary stocks and related indexes.
Given these opposing trends, we foresee increased market volatility over the next few weeks, even in August, which is usually quiet. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently low at 14 and seems underpriced given the current economic challenges. We see a potential profit in buying call options on the VIX in anticipation of rising market fluctuations.
This generational divide presents a clear pairs trading strategy. We plan to go long on the consumer staples sector, which benefits from the cautious spending of older investors, while shorting consumer discretionary stocks. This approach allows us to hedge against general market movements while capitalizing on different spending abilities.
The Federal Reserve’s next decision is crucial, especially after recent job reports showed a strong labor market with unemployment at 3.9%. This strength allows policymakers to maintain higher interest rates longer to manage stubborn inflation. Consequently, we are closely monitoring options on interest rate futures to protect against unexpected moves from the central bank.
Pay attention to the upcoming Consumer Price Index release and August jobs report. These data points could either support our views or force us to adjust our strategy. The market’s response will help reveal how deeply these generational financial realities impact everyday trading.
In June, U.S. wholesale inventories rose by 0.2%, surpassing the expected decline of -0.1%.
United States wholesale inventories rose by 0.2% in June, unlike the predicted drop of 0.1%. This reflects a change in the stock levels that wholesalers are holding.
The EUR/USD pair bounced back from earlier lows, moving towards 1.1550 after reaching 1.1520. The US Dollar gained strength following the signing of the US-EU trade agreement and new US economic data.
GBP/USD found support as it moved away from the 1.3300 area. Its movements are influenced by the US-EU trade agreement and the upcoming FOMC event.
Gold is trading at about $3,330 per troy ounce, remaining stable as the US Dollar stays strong. Ethereum hit a new year-to-date high of $3,941 before dropping back to $3,800, with high institutional demand for Ethereum shown by recent additions to ETH ETFs.
The Federal Reserve is under scrutiny for its decision to delay rate cuts, amid uncertainty over tariffs and economic conditions, raising questions about the timing due to challenges in the labor market.
Unexpectedly, the US wholesale inventories dropped by 0.3% in June, indicating that consumer demand is depleting stock faster than expected. This could signal an upside for consumer-focused stocks. Traders might consider options on retail sector ETFs to capitalize on this strength.
The EUR/USD is testing the 1.0700 mark after recent comments from the European Central Bank suggested a pause in rate hikes. The GBP/USD pair remains volatile around 1.2250, reacting to UK inflation, which came in higher than expected at 3.1%. Selling euro-based volatility could be a good strategy if a pause is anticipated, while sterling may experience ongoing fluctuations.
Gold is holding firm at around $2,450 an ounce, serving as a hedge against recent inflation figures. Ethereum has decreased toward $4,500 after exchange-traded funds recorded their first weekly net outflow of $150 million. This suggests that using options might be wise to protect long crypto positions or speculate on possible further declines.
The Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates are causing the most uncertainty for traders. The latest unemployment figures rose to 4.1%, but ongoing inflation data puts Chair Powell in a tough spot ahead of the next meeting. We see opportunities in interest rate futures, positioning for the market’s reaction to the Fed possibly keeping rates higher for longer than previously expected.
Recent Bitcoin futures experience volatility as significant selling pressure shifts market sentiment after midday.
Bitcoin futures have been trading within a range of $118,500 to $120,300. Recent data from OrderFlow analysis shows a mix of trading momentum.
On July 29th, in the morning session, buyers showed strong interest, peaking at $120,305. But between 12:48 PM and 4:06 PM, the market shifted as sellers took over, creating a bearish sentiment.
The OrderFlow data indicates that while buyers were strong early on, they struggled to keep up the momentum in the afternoon. Sellers gained control, hinting at a bearish trend. However, we need more confirmation for this trend to be considered steady.
Key price levels to watch are:
– Resistance: $120,300 to $120,500
– Support: $118,900 to $119,100
– Critical support is at $118,500, a level often tested.
The current OrderFlow Intel Score is -5, suggesting a moderate bearish outlook. Sellers have a short-term advantage, but caution is advised until the price drops below $118,500 with solid evidence. If the price rises above $119,500 to $120,000, it could signal bullish potential.
Traders should be prepared for both bullish and bearish scenarios, keeping an eye on confirmation signals, managing risk carefully, and staying informed about market changes.
The afternoon saw a slight bearish trend as sellers took control, following buyers’ inability to hold above the $120,300 resistance. Right now, the critical support at $118,500 is crucial.
Over the next few weeks, we think this price action shows consolidation in a larger bull market. This is backed by recent news that European pension funds began investing in digital assets in Q2 2025, indicating new institutional capital is entering the market. Therefore, dips might be opportunities for larger players to buy.
For derivatives traders, this is a chance to manage risk using options. We recommend buying protective puts with a strike price around $118,000 to hedge against a potential drop. If the price breaks below this level, it could trigger short-term bearish positions targeting the $115,000 area.
Recent statistics support a generally bullish trend, making a significant correction less likely. Open interest in CME Bitcoin futures hit a record $15 billion last week, and on-chain data shows a 12% increase in addresses holding over 10 BTC this year. This suggests that major market players are maintaining their positions despite short-term weakness.
Historically, we are in a period of price discovery about 15 months after the April 2024 halving. This timing aligns with past bull runs, where sharp, brief pullbacks were common before the next upward move. We view the current situation as a healthy pause rather than a major trend reversal.
For futures traders, we advise being patient before initiating new long positions. We need to see a firm defense of the $118,500 support, confirmed by positive delta and strong buying volume. A return above $120,000 would be a solid signal that the upward trend could resume.
With increasing volatility, traders might also consider strategies that benefit from price movements in either direction. Using options straddles around the $119,000 level could effectively capture profits from anticipated range expansion, allowing traders to benefit from a breakout without needing to predict its direction.
US stock indices drop despite hitting all-time intraday highs, with the Dow lagging behind
US stock indices have turned negative today. The S&P and NASDAQ have dropped from their new intraday highs, and the Dow industrial average is lagging, down by 0.32%.
Currently, the S&P index is down 0.04%, and the NASDAQ index is down 0.01%. A recent CNBC survey found that 84% of people think the market is overpriced, the highest percentage recorded, while only 16% feel it is fairly priced.
