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VT 
Notable USD/JPY FX option expiry at 148.00 may impact price action and trading focus
USD/JPY has an option expiry at the 148.00 level on July 28 at 10 AM New York time. While this level isn’t tied to any major technical levels, it might still affect price behavior leading up to the expiry later that day.
Market focus remains on trade developments, especially the US-EU trade talks. There are not many other important events happening at the start of the week.
VT MARKETS CHAMPIONS GROWTH IN ASIA THROUGH PARTNERSHIP WITH NEWCASTLE UNITED AS CSR INITIATIVES ARE LAUNCHED
July 28, 2025 , Sydney, Australia – VT Markets is using the ‘power of football’ to make a positive impact in communities across Asia, supported by a partnership with Premier League club Newcastle United.
Celebrating its 10th anniversary, VT Markets committed to donating 1,000 Newcastle United branded footballs to schools across Southeast Asia. The initiative aims to deepen the brand’s presence in Asia while creating opportunities for future generations to enjoy the sport.
Additionally, VT Markets proudly donated £20,000 to the Newcastle United Foundation, commemorating the club’s Carabao Cup victory and return to the UEFA Champions League. This contribution celebrates the club’s incredible achievement while supporting its official charity partner’s mission to harness the unifying power of football to connect, motivate, and inspire people through community, education, health, and sports programmes.
VT Markets’ Corporate Social Responsibility initiatives have been designed to champion growth through strategic partnerships and investments, with the aim of expanding the brand’s footprint in Asia, while helping to nurture economic development in the region. By driving growth through impactful collaborations, VT Markets is not only deepening its regional presence but also helping to build a stronger, more resilient future for these communities. With plans already underway to bring similar initiatives to Latin America, the brand is looking to replicate this positive impact across even more global markets.
As Newcastle United’s Official Financial Trading Partner, first-team players including Sandro Tonali, Jacob Murphy, Dan Burn, and William Osula, kicked off the initiatives during an exclusive Meet and Greet session hosted by VT Markets. Also in attendance was club legend Shola Ameobi, who brought his trademark charisma to connect with fans at the event. The Magpies were based in Singapore ahead of their first fixture in the nation since 1996, taking on fellow Premier League side Arsenal as part of the Singapore Festival of Football.
Speaking as the CSR initiatives were launched at an exclusive client engagement event in Singapore, hosted by VT Markets, Newcastle United player and Newcastle United Foundation ambassador Dan Burn shared: “Our fans are the soul of this club, wherever we go in the world. The support we’ve felt from everyone in Singapore has been unbelievable and that’s a big reason why projects like this mean so much.
“As players, football has helped to transform our lives so it’s really special to see VT Markets use their position to support young people and give back to these amazing communities – both in Newcastle and across Asia. We see the fantastic work that Newcastle United Foundation do back home and this donation will make a great contribution to changing their lives of many people in our community.”
VT Markets recently marked a thrilling debut year as Official Financial Trading Partner of Newcastle United by visiting St. James’ Park for the final match of the 2024/25 Premier League season. A history-making campaign saw Eddie Howe’s side win the club’s first domestic trophy in 70 years, which was quickly followed up with qualification for the UEFA Champions League.
This year also coincides with a significant milestone for VT Markets, celebrating a decade of innovation in the global financial markets. Over the past 10 years, the company has driven growth through collaborations, expanding its presence and making a lasting impact within the industry by helping to build a stronger, more resilient future.
“At VT Markets, we believe that true growth goes beyond numbers. Through our CSR initiatives, we aim to inspire, empower, and contribute meaningfully to the region’s development, laying the foundation for long-term opportunity and success. Our partnership with Newcastle United is about driving positive change both on and off the field, and we look forward to deepening our impact as we continue this exciting journey in Asia together,” Dandelyn Koh, Global Brand and PR Lead at VT Markets shared.
As Newcastle United prepare for a return to the UEFA Champions League, VT Markets remains a steadfast partner, supporting ambitions on the pitch while helping to drive positive social change off the pitch. The event in Singapore served as an opportunity to highlight shared values and the vision of both organisations, centred around growth, community, and giving back.
For media enquiries and sponsorship opportunities, please email [email protected], or contact:
Dandelyn Koh
Global Brand & PR Lead
Brenda Wong
Assistant Manager, Global PR & Communications
French foreign affairs minister says US-EU trade agreement provides only temporary stability
The French foreign affairs minister has shared thoughts on the US-EU trade deal, stating it will provide temporary stability. However, the European view sees this agreement as only a short-term fix.
Exempt Sectors and Market Balance
Some French sectors, like aeronautics and spirits, are set apart from the deal. Still, the overall arrangement feels unbalanced. This temporary deal may last for a few months or until the end of Trump’s presidency. While we have avoided the worst-case scenario, uncertainties about how the market sees this deal remain. People are wondering if it will ultimately be viewed in a positive light. The minister’s remarks suggest a brief period of calm, not a permanent solution. This creates a misleading sense of security, as the market’s real volatility might be overlooked. Therefore, derivative traders should focus on strategies that benefit from future uncertainty rather than relying on the short-term stability offered by this agreement. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures expected market fluctuations, has recently stayed in the lower range of 13-15, reflecting this temporary relief. However, VIX futures show that contracts set to deliver in the coming months are priced higher, above 17 later in the year. This suggests that while things are calm now, the market expects increased volatility when the minister indicates this deal’s stability may fade.Opportunities in Derivative Strategies
Given this situation, we see a chance in buying longer-dated call and put options on major market indices like the S&P 500 or the Euro Stoxx 50. Buying these options now, while their implied volatility is low, is more affordable than waiting for political tensions to rise again. This approach helps traders prepare for significant market shifts in the months ahead. Historically, periods of political calm have often led to sharp spikes in volatility. For example, during the US-China trade tensions in 2019, the VIX surged from below 15 to over 25 after seeming progress crumbled. This pattern suggests that the current stability is fragile and likely temporary. Even though specific sectors like aeronautics are momentarily protected, their long-term outlook remains linked to the imbalanced agreement mentioned by the minister. Thus, we are looking at protective puts on companies vulnerable to transatlantic trade, even those currently exempt. This is a smart way to hedge against potential issues with the deal later this year. More advanced strategies, like calendar spreads on major indices, might also be effective. This involves selling a short-term option to collect premiums from the current low-volatility environment, while buying a longer-term option to benefit from future uncertainty. This approach specifically caters to the kind of temporary stability we’ve been discussing. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Ethereum looks to challenge the $4,000 level again after recent recovery from declines.
Cryptocurrencies are bouncing back after some midweek dips, with Ethereum showing strong growth. Over the weekend, it recovered from losses, climbing from around $3,600 to its highest price since December last year.
The big question now is whether Ethereum will break the $4,000 barrier. This level was last crossed cleanly in late 2021 when it peaked over $4,800 before falling. During the same time, Bitcoin also hit record highs above $60,000 but later dropped below $20,000.
Ethereum struggled with the $4,000 mark last year, but it’s ready for another attempt. If it can break through, there may be more gains ahead, but a failure could signal this year’s peak.
Globally, the trend for cryptocurrencies and collectibles remains strong this summer.
According to Low, the setup around $4,000 is an excellent chance for options traders. Recent data indicates a build-up in call option interest, with over $3 billion focused at strikes between $4,000 and $5,000 for late June, reflecting a strong bullish sentiment in the derivatives market. We believe that positioning for a breakout is the way to go.
The situation has changed dramatically since the last time Ethereum tested this price due to the SEC’s recent approval of 19b-4 filings for spot Ether ETFs. This approval is a significant catalyst, making a sustained price break more likely. Historically, assets see major inflows and price rises once such products start trading. For instance, Bitcoin rallied over 60% after its ETF launch in January.
For traders expecting a breakout, buying call options with a strike price just above $4,000 could amplify this upward trend. Those wary of a possible rejection can purchase put options to guard against a sharp drop. Data from Deribit shows that demand for bullish calls is still higher than for bearish puts.
We also see potential in strategies that benefit from increased volatility, regardless of the direction. A long strangle—buying an out-of-the-money call and put—could be effective as we near the launch of the spot ETFs. The market seems to be anticipating a big move, and while implied volatility is high, it may still underestimate the impact of active ETF trading.
Finally, it’s important to keep an eye on the S-1 registration statements, as this is the last step before these new funds start trading. We believe the market is not fully grasping the potential inflows, which analysts at Standard Chartered estimate could be between $15 billion and $45 billion in the first year alone. This event will likely set the tone for the rest of the quarter.
US relaxes technology export controls to China for trade negotiations
The US has paused export restrictions on key technology to China to improve trade relations. This decision is aimed at setting up a meeting between Trump and Xi later this year. The commerce department has been told to avoid strict actions against China.
China’s past use of rare earth exports for leverage in May has influenced this decision. However, it remains uncertain if this will lead to meaningful discussions between Trump and Xi.
US-China Temporary Truce
The US and China seem to have reached a temporary truce that may be extended, although no significant agreements are expected. The priority now is to maintain friendly relations between the two countries. With the recent pause in export controls, traders should expect lower market volatility. This truce reduces the risk of sudden market shocks caused by policy changes, which have previously unsettled investors. For example, during the trade war escalation in mid-2019, the VIX volatility index surged above 20, whereas it currently remains low at around 13, indicating a stable environment. This situation is beneficial for technology and semiconductor stocks that are heavily invested in the Chinese market. Companies like Qualcomm, which gets over 60% of its revenue from China, are good candidates for bullish strategies, such as buying call options or selling cash-secured puts. The removal of immediate threats should boost their stock values in the short term. On the other hand, China’s rare earth leverage could serve as a challenge for producers outside of China. We anticipate less investor interest in mining companies that previously gained from supply chain diversification narratives. In this context, buying put options on specific mining ETFs or stocks may be a useful strategy to hedge against broader market optimism.Caution on Temporary Fix
While this effort to maintain friendly relations is welcome, it should be approached with caution, as it seems like a temporary solution. Despite the positive news, US goods trade with China dropped by over $70 billion in 2023, indicating a longer-term shift in strategy. Therefore, any optimistic derivative trades should be focused on the short term, as the underlying issues between the two nations are still unresolved and simply postponed. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.A trade deal boosted the euro, but mixed EU reactions affected currency movements and stocks.
The euro rose slightly in early Asian trading due to a new trade deal between the EU and the US. The EUR/USD reached around 1.1770 before settling at about 1.1750/55.
The trade deal has several key points:
– A 15% tariff ceiling on EU goods entering the US
– A $750 billion commitment from the EU to purchase US energy
– A $600 billion EU investment in the US
– No stacking tariffs
Reactions in the EU were mixed. Finland criticized the deal, while Germany’s trade group called it a “painful compromise.”
Currency Markets Overview
In currency markets, the AUD, GBP, and NZD all made small gains. Meanwhile, USD/JPY and USD/CHF stayed within narrow trading ranges, keeping overall currency volatility low. Stock and crypto markets also saw slight increases, showing stronger risk sentiment. US-China trade talks are restarting in Stockholm. While no major breakthroughs are expected, the likelihood of extending the current tariff truce is high. Japan’s $550 billion investment plan in the US relies mainly on loans and guarantees, with just a small part in direct equity. In the Asia-Pacific region, stocks showed mixed results: – Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose by 0.24% – Hong Kong’s Hang Seng increased by 0.48% – Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped by 0.88% – The Shanghai Composite gained slightly by 0.03% The euro’s modest response to the trade deal suggests it will stabilize within a range. While the deal lessens some risks, differing EU responses and undefined details will likely prevent any major price increases. With the Cboe EuroCurrency Volatility Index (EVZ) trading near multi-year lows, we see selling options premiums through strategies like iron condors on EUR/USD as a profitable approach.Market Volatility and Strategy
The overall low volatility in the market seems likely to continue, especially with the expected 90-day extension of the US-China tariff truce. This stability lowers risks, making it attractive to bet against equity volatility. We suggest selling VIX futures or buying put options on volatility funds as long as this calm continues. For stocks, the trade deal offers minor relief for European exporters. However, comments from the BGA reveal ongoing economic pressures. Recent figures show the German Ifo Business Climate Index has dropped for five straight months, supporting a cautious outlook. Thus, we recommend buying short-dated call options on European indices for a tactical rebound rather than betting on a major uptrend. The anticipated truce in Stockholm is crucial because trade between the US and China topped $690 billion in 2022. This stability is vital for market sentiment and should support currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars. We believe long call options on the AUD/USD pair are a smart way to benefit from this easing of trade tensions. Clarification from Akazawa about Japan’s investment plan likely contributed to the drop in the Nikkei. Markets adjusted to find that much of the investment was not as impactful as initially suggested by the White House, focusing on debt and guarantees rather than direct equity. This creates a value opportunity to go long on US energy sector ETFs while potentially shorting Japanese equity index futures. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The Bank of Japan may indicate future rate hikes due to improved economic outlook despite uncertainties
The Bank of Japan is likely to keep its short-term policy rate at 0.5% in its upcoming meeting. A decision is expected between 0230–0330 GMT on July 31, 2025.
There might be a shift towards a more positive outlook, possibly leading to rate hikes later this year. This change comes as trade tensions are easing due to Japan’s recent agreements with the U.S. and a broader deal with the EU, which could benefit Japan’s export economy.
Bank’s Cautious Approach
Despite these developments, the Bank remains cautious because of ongoing uncertainties, especially regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs. Deputy Governor Uchida noted that uncertainty has decreased with the U.S.–Japan deal, but worries about U.S. trade policy affecting the global economy remain. The upcoming quarterly outlook report is being closely watched. The Bank is likely to raise its inflation forecast for fiscal 2025, mainly due to rising food prices, like rice. It might also change its views on inflation risks, potentially dropping concerns over “downside risks” while still aiming for a 2% inflation target in the future. Current predictions include a core CPI of 2.2% for 2025, 1.7% for 2026, and 1.9% for 2027. More information may come out during Governor Ueda’s press conference at 0630 GMT.Market Opportunities
Traders should focus not just on the rate decision, but on positioning for a more optimistic outlook. Since the Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates steady, traders can make money by anticipating how likely rate hikes are based on new information. This means looking at derivatives that respond to future expectations rather than just the current decision. The main impact will likely be felt in currency markets. A more confident central bank often leads to a stronger yen. We are considering buying JPY calls or using put options on the USD/JPY pair to prepare for a potential drop in USD/JPY, as the market may start expecting a higher chance of a rate hike by year-end. For perspective, after the Bank’s last major policy shift in March 2024, the yen rose nearly 4% against the dollar over the next few weeks. Anticipation of this announcement will likely cause increased currency volatility. We suggest strategies like long straddles on the USD/JPY, which can profit from significant price movements in either direction. Recently, one-month implied volatility on this currency pair spiked from 8% to over 11% in just one week due to hawkish comments, showing how sensitive this market is to future guidance. We expect forward interest rate markets to react before cash bond markets do. Traders should keep an eye on the 2-year and 5-year Japanese interest rate swaps, which will likely rise as they factor in future tightening. After the Bank’s last policy normalization, the 2-year swap rate increased by over 15 basis points, indicating that derivative markets often anticipate policy changes before they happen. A key detail to watch will be the wording in the quarterly outlook, particularly any upgrades to the inflation forecast. Japan’s “core-core” inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy, has now been above the 2% target for over 15 months, adding credibility to a more confident official stance. The removal of the term “downside risks” would give us the clearest signal to take on more hawkish positions. The deputy governor’s recent remarks about reduced uncertainty are likely intended as signals leading up to the meeting. However, the most significant market reactions will probably take place during the press conference following the decision. We will be listening for any clear indications from the governor about when the next hike might occur, as his remarks will be crucial for our short-term strategies. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.A $550 billion Japanese investment in the US emphasizes loans and guarantees, with minimal equity involvement.
Japan is planning a $550 billion investment in the United States to lower tariffs on its exports. The Japan Bank for International Cooperation and Nippon Export and Investment Insurance will manage this initiative, focusing on loans and guarantees rather than equity, which will only make up about 1-2% of the investment.
Japanese negotiator Akazawa stated that the U.S. will keep 90% of profits from the small equity share. Japan initially wanted a 50% return but is willing to accept less due to a potential ¥10 trillion ($68 billion) savings from tariffs.
Strengthening Supply Chains
This initiative aims to bolster supply chains in key industries, and Japan hopes to use the funds during Trump’s term. We believe this agreement reduces geopolitical risks, which should help stabilize markets. In the past, resolving major trade disputes has led to lower market volatility. For example, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropped below 13 during the U.S.-China trade talks in late 2019. Traders might want to consider positions that benefit from declining implied volatility in the coming weeks. The $550 billion investment will create a significant demand for dollars, putting upward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate. The rate is already near a 34-year high of over 157, and this large capital flow from entities like JBIC could weaken the yen even more. We see an opportunity to buy USD/JPY call options based on this anticipated currency movement.Impact on Japanese Equities
By avoiding ¥10 trillion in tariffs, Japan’s export-driven economy stands to gain significantly. We expect a positive response in Japanese stocks, especially in the automotive and electronics sectors, which, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, accounted for over $80 billion in exports to the States last year. Investing in the Nikkei 225 index or individual major exporters could be a good strategy. Mr. Akazawa’s comments on profit margins matter less than where the capital will be directed in the U.S. These funds are likely to flow into sectors like semiconductors, electric vehicle (EV) batteries, and infrastructure. We predict this will boost specific U.S. stocks and sector ETFs like SOXX or PAVE as new projects are introduced. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Ethereum reaches highest value since December 2024, boosted by US-EU trade agreement
Ethereum has reached its highest point since December 2024. Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ether, are benefiting from the US-EU trade deal framework.
Economic conditions and trade agreements significantly affect cryptocurrencies. The US and EU have agreed on a trade deal framework that includes a 15% tariff rate. As part of this deal, the EU will buy energy from the US.
Additionally, the US and China are set to meet soon, with expectations of a 90-day extension for ongoing trade talks. Ethereum’s recent price increase shows positive market sentiment as traders respond to possible trade stability.
Ethereum has now hit its highest price since late 2021. This surge is mainly due to the approval of spot Ether ETFs in the US. Improved economic conditions, including the trade deal, create a good environment for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. The shift from regulatory uncertainty to institutional acceptance means we need to adjust our derivative strategies.
In light of this, we should consider strategies that take advantage of lower volatility, as much of the uncertainty surrounding events has lessened. The Ethereum Volatility Index (DVOL) has dropped from over 75% to the mid-50s, suggesting that selling options premiums through tactics like covered calls may be more profitable now. Typically, after major announcements, implied volatility decreases as the market processes the news.
The derivatives market is showing strong bullish sentiment, with open interest in Ether options exceeding a record $18 billion. We see a clear preference for call options over put options, indicating strong demand for bullish positions. This suggests that creating bull call spreads could allow us to benefit from further price gains while managing our risk.
The positive news from international trade talks helps lower macroeconomic risks that previously caused cryptocurrencies to decline alongside traditional markets. We are monitoring the upcoming meeting between the US and China; a positive outcome would further alleviate global uncertainties. This stability allows new crypto catalysts, such as fund inflows into the new ETFs, to be the main drivers of price movement.
Samsung and Tesla establish a multiyear semiconductor agreement worth $16.5 billion
Samsung has made a big deal worth $16.5 billion to produce semiconductors for Tesla until 2033, according to a source. At first, it wasn’t clear which major company was involved, but later it was revealed that it was Tesla.
This agreement is a significant boost for Samsung’s foundry business, which has been struggling with unused capacity and a decline in market share. Following the announcement, Samsung’s share price jumped by up to 3.5%, marking its largest daily increase in nearly a month.
So far, neither Samsung nor Tesla has commented publicly on this agreement. The partnership could have lasting effects on the production abilities of both companies.
We think this long-term contract is a big win for Samsung, giving it a major source of revenue for its struggling foundry unit. This could lead to a decrease in the stock’s long-term implied volatility, making strategies like selling cash-secured puts appealing. Traders can take advantage of the newfound stability this deal brings over the next decade.
Samsung has been finding it hard to compete with market leaders. Data from TrendForce shows its global foundry market share was only 11.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023. This contract is vital for improving that market share and increasing capacity use. We believe this could justify considering bullish call options for medium-term price gains.
For Tesla, this agreement significantly reduces risks in its supply chain for essential self-driving and AI chips until 2033. It helps tackle a major long-term production issue, which the market should view positively. This stability boosts confidence in Tesla’s future growth plans.
Historically, partnerships in manufacturing, like the one between Apple and TSMC, have created great long-term value and stability. These arrangements give companies a competitive edge by ensuring access to advanced production. We think the market may not fully recognize how important this deal is for the electric vehicle maker.
The semiconductor industry is also recovering well, with the Semiconductor Industry Association reporting a 15.2% increase in global sales year-over-year in January 2024. This positive trend supports our optimistic outlook. Traders might also consider call options on semiconductor ETFs to tap into this upward momentum.
Since both companies have declined to comment, there might be some short-term uncertainty that keeps options premiums high for a while. This creates an opportunity to sell that volatility. We suggest implementing strategies that could profit as the stocks stabilize after the initial news.
