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Crude oil futures close at $65.16, marking a decline with potential resistance at $66.96.
Crude oil futures closed at $65.16, down by $0.87 for the day. Earlier this week, the price fell below the 100-day moving average but managed to stay above it, indicating weak bearish momentum.
As the new trading week starts, sellers want to keep prices below the 100-day moving average to strengthen the downside trend. If prices drop below the swing area low of $63.61, it could boost selling momentum and increase seller confidence.
Next week brings a wave of earnings reports and economic indicators from multiple sectors.
A busy week is coming with important economic data releases and earnings announcements from major tech firms like Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon. Key reports include the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday at 2 PM, followed by a press conference, and US employment data on Friday at 8:30 AM.
Other releases include Australia’s CPI on Tuesday night and various announcements on Wednesday. The ADP nonfarm payroll change is expected to show a gain of 75K this month, up from a loss of 33K last month. The advance GDP for Q2 is estimated at 2.5%, a bounce-back from last quarter’s -0.5%. Both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan are expected to maintain their rates. On Thursday, Canada’s GDP estimate is projected at -0.1%, while the US Core PCE price index estimate is +0.3%.
Earnings Announcements
This week, major tech companies will report their earnings, including Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, along with UnitedHealth, Boeing, Merck, and Visa. Waste Management will release its earnings on Monday after the market closes, while significant announcements from UnitedHealth, PayPal, Boeing, and Merck will occur before and after market close from Tuesday to Friday. We anticipate a period of heightened event risk, leading to increased market volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), known as the market’s “fear gauge,” is currently around 14, which is low and likely to change. This indicates that options pricing may not yet fully account for potential price fluctuations. Derivative traders should be ready for a rise in implied volatility, especially in options related to major tech companies and broad market ETFs like SPY. For example, options markets are pricing in an estimated 8.5% post-earnings move for Meta, a significant increase that will raise premiums leading up to Wednesday’s close. We expect the cost of protection and speculation to rise as these key events approach.Federal Reserve’s Meeting
The Federal Reserve’s meeting is the main event of the week. Traders should pay more attention to the tone of the press conference after the rate decision. Historically, the S&P 500 has fluctuated nearly 1% on Fed decision days, but the key detail for option sellers is the drop in volatility once uncertainty is resolved. Recent inflation data, like the May CPI at 3.3%, came in lower than expected, so any hawkish surprise from Powell could lead to a significant market reaction. For those who think the market may be overestimating potential moves, selling premium could be a good strategy. By using strategies like iron condors or short strangles on stocks like Apple or Amazon, traders can benefit if the stocks move less than the expensive options predict. This approach bets that the market will be calmer after the announcement than it was leading up to it. On the other hand, since the recent market gains are heavily concentrated in the “Magnificent 7,” there’s a chance for a swift repricing if any disappointments arise. Buying simple puts or calls on these stocks is a straightforward way to bet on larger-than-expected moves, especially if weak guidance or a big earnings miss occurs. A trader expecting a negative surprise from Microsoft could see strong returns if its results don’t support its high valuation. Finally, don’t get too relaxed after the tech earnings and central bank decisions. The U.S. employment report on Friday is still a key factor that could either confirm or completely overturn the market’s initial reactions. A surprisingly strong jobs number and wage growth could reignite inflation fears, affecting a market that thought the week’s main risks had passed. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.June’s durable goods orders in the United States surpass expectations at 0.2% instead of 0.1%
In June, orders for durable goods in the United States, not counting transportation, rose by 0.2%. This was better than the expected increase of 0.1%.
The EUR/USD exchange rate stays above 1.1700, although it’s facing slight downward pressure. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD is aiming for the 1.3400 level after weak retail sales data from the UK.
Gold prices are declining for the third day in a row, hitting weekly lows around $3,330 per troy ounce. The strength of the US Dollar and mixed yields are leading to a bearish outlook for gold.
Cryptocurrency Market Update
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin dropped to an intraday low of $114,723 but shows some signs of recovery. Ethereum and XRP have held important support levels despite the market’s cautious approach. The Federal Reserve is being criticized for its delay in rate cuts due to ongoing tariff uncertainties, although a strong economy gives some reason for this approach. However, concerns about the labor market may lead to further delays in policy changes. A guide is available for the best forex and asset trading brokers in 2025, featuring those with competitive spreads, quick execution, and user-friendly platforms for both beginners and experienced traders. With strong business investment recently, we believe the Federal Reserve can justify its cautious approach to interest rates. The latest non-farm payroll report showed that 272,000 jobs were added in May, greatly exceeding predictions. This robust job growth supports the case for postponing any policy easing, suggesting a “higher for longer” interest rate environment.Currency And Asset Outlook
This policy approach continues to boost the strength of the US Dollar. The Dollar Index (DXY) has recently remained steady above 105.5. Because of this, we expect ongoing pressure on the EUR/USD, especially since the European Central Bank started cutting rates in early June. Strategies that favor the Dollar against the Euro appear wise in the upcoming weeks. We also foresee potential weakness for the British Pound, despite a recent rise in UK retail sales. The Bank of England faces ongoing inflation challenges that complicate its policy decisions, creating a gap with the more aggressive American central bank. Historically, such divergences tend to weigh down the GBP/USD pair, which is currently struggling to stay above 1.2700. The strong dollar and firm Treasury yields, particularly with the 10-year note around 4.25%, create tough conditions for gold. The precious metal is now trading near $2,320 per ounce after failing to maintain higher prices, making it less appealing as the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset rises. We expect this pressure to limit any major rallies in gold prices. In the cryptocurrency market, a general trend of caution is noticeable, as Bitcoin fights to stay above $64,000. Historically, tight monetary policy and a strong dollar reduce interest in speculative assets. Therefore, we recommend exercising caution, as digital assets might face additional declines if macroeconomic uncertainties continue. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.In June, US orders for durable goods excluding defense fell to -9.4% from 15.5%
Durable goods orders in the United States, excluding defense, fell by 9.4% in June. This is down from a previous increase of 15.5%, indicating a possible slowdown in the economy.
The EUR/USD remains above 1.1700, even with ongoing downward pressure and a stable US Dollar. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD is close to a weekly low, influenced by the Dollar’s strength and weak retail sales data from the UK.
Gold Price Trends
Gold prices have dropped steadily, reaching $2,330 per troy ounce. This decline is partly due to increased demand for the US Dollar and mixed performance in US Treasury yields. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin’s price decreased during the recent Asian session, hitting a low of $60,000. Though it has slightly recovered, market stability is still a concern. The Federal Reserve is under scrutiny for delaying interest rate cuts amid economic uncertainty. The timing of these decisions is being questioned, particularly as signs of weakness appear in the labor market. We view the recent fall in durable goods orders as an early warning for the broader economy. This drop in business investment may lead to a slowdown, potentially pushing the central bank to act sooner. Derivative traders might want to prepare for increased market volatility as these economic challenges become more evident.Labor Market and Interest Rates
The delay in interest rate cuts is facing pressure from new data revealing issues in the US labor market. For example, ongoing jobless claims have risen to about 2.8 million, the highest level since late 2021. This trend may prompt the Federal Reserve to make changes, creating opportunities in interest rate futures. Given these developments, we are cautious about the GBP/USD pair, which could be impacted by the Dollar’s strength and weak UK retail sales. The EUR/USD has shown more resilience, but we suggest traders use options contracts to guard against sudden market movements. This strategy could help take advantage of potential shifts in currency markets once the monetary policy path becomes clearer. We see the ongoing decline in gold, now priced near $2,330 per troy ounce, as a short-term trend linked to current dollar demand. Historically, gold prices have surged ahead of and during interest rate cuts, as seen in the easing periods of 2007 and 2019. Traders might consider long-dated call options in anticipation of a rebound later this year. In the crypto space, Bitcoin’s recent drop to around $60,000 has heightened market anxiety. We have noticed a significant rise in the put-to-call ratio for Bitcoin options, which recently reached a yearly high, indicating that many professional traders are seeking downside protection. This suggests that, while volatility provides trading chances, the overall sentiment in the derivatives market appears negative in the short term. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The US dollar rises on positive economic indicators and renewed trade optimism.
The US Dollar is strong right now, thanks to positive economic data and hopeful news about trade. The DXY US Dollar Index, which found support at 97.00, is trading around 97.80. However, it might end a two-week winning streak since it has trouble breaking the 98.00 level. Market caution is due to the upcoming Federal Reserve decision and tariff deadlines.
Trade Developments And Agreements
US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve, urging for rate cuts but supporting Fed Chair Powell’s role. Trump is optimistic about trade deals, mentioning that some are finished, although a deal with Canada is still pending. In Europe, discussions with the EU hint at a possible framework agreement, while South Korea has proposed a $100 billion investment for favorable terms. In June 2025, durable goods orders dropped by 9.3%, largely due to a significant decrease in aircraft orders. Core capital goods orders also fell by 0.7%. The US has made agreements with several countries and aims for more before the August deadline. The US Dollar Index is finding support near 97.00, facing resistance at 97.80-98.00, although recovery is still uncertain. The 14-day RSI indicates a slight upward trend. Since the US Dollar is struggling to overcome key resistance, traders might want to employ strategies that take advantage of range-bound price movements. The Dollar Index is currently having a hard time breaking past 105.50, offering opportunities for those betting on sideways trends. This view is backed by the index’s recent performance, where several rallies have stalled around this level.Monetary Policies And Market Implications
Recent economic reports create uncertainty, which often increases the value of options contracts ahead of major announcements. For example, the latest Consumer Price Index showed a rise of 3.4%, and job growth for April was only 175,000, below expectations. This situation eases pressure on the central bank to act aggressively, supporting the idea of using options to capture potential volatility around the upcoming policy decision. We suggest buying call options with strike prices above 106.0 as a cost-effective way to benefit from a potential breakout, driven by any unexpectedly strong data or trade developments mentioned by the President. On the flip side, put options with strike prices below the 104.0 support level could provide a good hedge against a negative shift from the central bank chairman. The mixed signals from officials indicate that traders should be ready for movement in either direction. Historically, the US Dollar tends to weaken once a rate-cutting cycle starts, suggesting that current strength could be short-lived. The latest durable goods report, which only saw a modest rise of 0.7%, did not change this view and indicates a slowdown from previous strength. Therefore, traders might consider selling longer-dated call options or buying puts, as the dollar’s peak for this cycle may be approaching. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch raises forecasts for platinum, palladium, and silver prices
Investment Risks and Considerations
The information shared includes possible risks and uncertainties. The markets and instruments mentioned are for informational purposes only and are not investment recommendations. It’s important to do thorough research before making any investment decisions, as investing in open markets carries risks, including the potential loss of capital. The accuracy of the information provided is not guaranteed and should not be taken as investment advice. We believe that raising the silver price target to $39 creates a great opportunity for traders in derivatives to think about buying call options. The Silver Institute recently reported that global demand for silver is expected to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024. This would be the second-highest demand ever, driven by strong industrial use. This strong demand supports a positive outlook for silver in the coming weeks.Platinum and Palladium Market Conditions
The Gold/Silver ratio has dropped from over 90 earlier this year to around 78 now, showing silver’s recent strength. Over the last 20 years, this ratio has averaged closer to 60, indicating that silver has a lot of potential to outperform gold. This relative value makes taking long positions in silver, possibly hedged against short positions in gold, an appealing strategy. For platinum, the new target of $1,350 suggests that traders should look into bullish positions using long-dated futures or bull call spreads. One important factor is that platinum is increasingly being used instead of palladium in automotive catalysts. The World Platinum Investment Council predicts a supply deficit of 418,000 ounces for 2024. This supply-demand mismatch supports a likely rise in price. Given the expectations for palladium to underperform, we suggest being cautious about taking long positions. Instead, consider protective put options. The market is experiencing challenges from the shift to electric vehicles and the increased use of platinum, creating a structural surplus for palladium. This suggests that palladium prices may not keep pace with other precious metals. The overall market environment, with growing expectations for interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve later this year, offers strong support for these trades. Lower interest rates often weaken the dollar and reduce the cost of holding non-yielding assets. This macroeconomic situation strengthens our positive outlook for the precious metals market. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Carsten Fritsch notes a 3.5% drop in China’s gold demand due to strong investment interest.
Gold demand in China fell by 3.5% in the first half of the year compared to last year. While jewellery demand dropped 26% to 200 tonnes, a 24% rise in demand for bars and coins to 264 tonnes helped lessen the decline.
These mixed trends show that bars and coins have surpassed jewellery in popularity. This shift is due to uncertainty around US trade policies. High prices hurt jewellery demand, while bars and coins thrived as safe investments.
Shift from Consumption to Investment
Gold serves two purposes: it is both a safe asset and a component of jewellery, where demand varies. Investment demand often influences price changes more than jewellery demand, which tends to stabilize prices. We believe the change in China’s gold demand from spending to investment sends a strong positive signal for gold. This shift indicates that the market focus is moving toward investment-driven pricing rather than sensitive jewellery purchases. Traders should prepare for rising prices in the coming weeks. This trend is backed by government policy. The People’s Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 17 straight months, holding over 2,262 tonnes as of March 2024. This ongoing buying from the central bank creates a solid price support and suggests a move away from the US dollar, a trend retail investors are starting to follow. It clearly shows that institutions believe in the value of gold.Outlook for Gold Prices
Many major financial institutions share this view. Analysts like Citi’s Aakash Doshi predict that prices could reach $3,000 an ounce within a year. The rise in safe-haven investments, fueled by global economic uncertainty and geopolitical issues, supports these high price expectations. We recommend buying call options or setting up bull call spreads to take advantage of this potential increase. Typically, gold priced in local currency acts as a good hedge for Chinese investors during times when the yuan is weak. The yuan recently dropped to a four-month low against the dollar, alongside ongoing problems in the property market, leading more people to seek gold for safety. This internal pressure will likely boost investment more than discretionary spending. Data from the COMEX shows that money managers have raised their net-long futures positions to the highest in four years. This means that big speculators agree with our outlook and are betting on higher prices ahead. Now is a good time to build a long position instead of waiting for a significant price drop. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.In July, Brazil’s mid-month inflation was 0.33%, surpassing the predicted 0.3%
In July, Brazil’s inflation rate rose to 0.33%, surpassing the expected 0.3%. This shows a slight shift from what was anticipated.
The EUR/USD pair is under slight negative pressure but remains above 1.1700. The US Dollar is stable, thanks to positive sentiments around US-China trade relations. In contrast, the British Pound is struggling near the 1.3400 support level, influenced by the strength of the US Dollar and poor retail sales in the UK for June.
Gold and Cryptocurrency Trends
Gold prices are falling, staying around $3,330 per troy ounce as interest in the US Dollar grows. The cryptocurrency market is trying to stabilize after Bitcoin dropped to $114,723, but efforts to recover are ongoing. The Federal Reserve is facing criticism for delaying rate cuts in this uncertain tariff climate. Even with a resilient economy, there are worries that the Fed may have acted too late, especially as signs of weakness appear in the labor market. For those trading EUR/USD, choosing the right broker is crucial. Consider brokers offering competitive spreads and strong platforms for effective navigation in the foreign exchange market. With the Federal Reserve’s hesitance on rate cuts, the US Dollar faces uncertainty. Recent data shows US unemployment rising to 4.0%, confirming labor market struggles, even as inflation remains a concern. This mixed data suggests volatility, making options strategies that benefit from price fluctuations in the dollar index a wise choice.Impact of Central Bank Policies
The pressure on the EUR/USD is likely to continue since the European Central Bank is already cutting rates, creating a difference in policy. Historically, when the Fed keeps rates steady while other major central banks reduce them, the dollar strengthens significantly. Therefore, buying put options on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD can help protect against further losses in these pairs. Gold’s price drop to around $2,320 per ounce offers a strategic opportunity for long-term investment. Although a strong dollar may be a temporary challenge, central banks are still significant buyers, adding a net 290 tonnes in the first quarter of 2024, which helps support prices. We are considering long-dated call options for a future rally when US monetary policy changes. Brazil’s higher-than-expected inflation supports the idea that its central bank will keep the Selic interest rate higher than the current 10.50%. This makes the Brazilian Real appealing for carry trades, where traders borrow in low-interest currencies to invest in higher-yielding ones. Using futures to buy the Real against the US Dollar can be a good way to take advantage of this yield difference. The cryptocurrency market is consolidating, with Bitcoin around $65,000 after significant outflows from spot ETFs. This “search for stability” usually signals a big movement, but the direction is unclear. This situation makes volatility trades, like long straddles using options, an efficient way for traders to profit from a potential breakout without guessing its direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Carsten Fritsch from Commerzbank says gold price declines reversed previous weekly gains.
The price of gold has fallen over the past two days, reversing gains made earlier in the week. Gold is currently trading just below $3,350 per troy ounce.
This drop is largely due to easing trade tensions. Recently, the US and Japan reached an agreement, which could pave the way for a similar deal between the US and the EU.
Increased Risk Appetite
Growing optimism is boosting risk appetite in financial markets, as shown by rising stock prices. When investors feel confident, they tend to seek riskier assets, reducing their demand for gold as a safe haven. Despite this trend, Gold ETFs monitored by Bloomberg saw inflows of 20 tonnes in the first four trading days of the week, mostly during the period when gold prices were rising. This information includes forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets, and careful research should be conducted before making any investment decisions. Currently, gold prices close to $2,350 per troy ounce highlight a classic struggle between risk-on sentiment and economic uncertainty. The strong performance of equity markets, particularly with the S&P 500 hitting record highs above 5,400, is pulling money away from traditional safe havens. This situation suggests that gold prices may face pressure in the short term.Trading Strategies
For traders expecting a further decline, buying put options with a strike price around $2,300 can be a low-risk way to take advantage of this trend. As geopolitical tensions ease, especially with progress in trade talks, the need for portfolio insurance decreases. This bearish outlook is further supported by recent outflows from major gold ETFs, including nearly $500 million withdrawn from the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) fund last week. However, we should also consider significant recent purchases. According to the latest World Gold Council data, central banks bought a net 290 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2024. This strong institutional demand creates solid support for prices, suggesting that any major drop could be seen as a buying opportunity by larger investors. This underlying support makes taking a purely short position challenging. Additionally, recent US economic data presents a mixed view. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows that inflation has cooled to 3.3%, while the Federal Reserve remains cautious about maintaining higher interest rates for longer. Historically, gold prices tend to do well early in monetary easing cycles, like the significant rally that began in late 2008 when the Fed aggressively cut rates. Should the central bank shift towards rate cuts in the future, it could trigger a major rally for gold. Given these conflicting factors, a strategy focusing on volatility rather than a specific market direction is wise. One could establish a long straddle by purchasing both a call and a put option with the same strike price and expiration date. This allows traders to benefit from significant price movements in either direction, enabling them to react to upcoming inflation reports or central bank announcements without a commitment to a single outcome. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The Euro loses 0.2% against the US Dollar, giving up some recent gains, says Scotiabank.
The Euro (EUR) has seen a slight drop of 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD), giving back some of this week’s earlier gains. However, interest rate differences still favor the Euro, helping it recover from losses earlier in July.
The European Central Bank has kept its current policies in place. This has caused a rethink in the market’s expectations for rate cuts, which are now projected to be about 15 basis points by the end of the year—10 basis points less than before.
