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In June, US orders for durable goods excluding defense fell to -9.4% from 15.5%
Durable goods orders in the United States, excluding defense, fell by 9.4% in June. This is down from a previous increase of 15.5%, indicating a possible slowdown in the economy.
The EUR/USD remains above 1.1700, even with ongoing downward pressure and a stable US Dollar. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD is close to a weekly low, influenced by the Dollar’s strength and weak retail sales data from the UK.
The US dollar rises on positive economic indicators and renewed trade optimism.
The US Dollar is strong right now, thanks to positive economic data and hopeful news about trade. The DXY US Dollar Index, which found support at 97.00, is trading around 97.80. However, it might end a two-week winning streak since it has trouble breaking the 98.00 level. Market caution is due to the upcoming Federal Reserve decision and tariff deadlines.
Trade Developments And Agreements
US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve, urging for rate cuts but supporting Fed Chair Powell’s role. Trump is optimistic about trade deals, mentioning that some are finished, although a deal with Canada is still pending. In Europe, discussions with the EU hint at a possible framework agreement, while South Korea has proposed a $100 billion investment for favorable terms. In June 2025, durable goods orders dropped by 9.3%, largely due to a significant decrease in aircraft orders. Core capital goods orders also fell by 0.7%. The US has made agreements with several countries and aims for more before the August deadline. The US Dollar Index is finding support near 97.00, facing resistance at 97.80-98.00, although recovery is still uncertain. The 14-day RSI indicates a slight upward trend. Since the US Dollar is struggling to overcome key resistance, traders might want to employ strategies that take advantage of range-bound price movements. The Dollar Index is currently having a hard time breaking past 105.50, offering opportunities for those betting on sideways trends. This view is backed by the index’s recent performance, where several rallies have stalled around this level.Monetary Policies And Market Implications
Recent economic reports create uncertainty, which often increases the value of options contracts ahead of major announcements. For example, the latest Consumer Price Index showed a rise of 3.4%, and job growth for April was only 175,000, below expectations. This situation eases pressure on the central bank to act aggressively, supporting the idea of using options to capture potential volatility around the upcoming policy decision. We suggest buying call options with strike prices above 106.0 as a cost-effective way to benefit from a potential breakout, driven by any unexpectedly strong data or trade developments mentioned by the President. On the flip side, put options with strike prices below the 104.0 support level could provide a good hedge against a negative shift from the central bank chairman. The mixed signals from officials indicate that traders should be ready for movement in either direction. Historically, the US Dollar tends to weaken once a rate-cutting cycle starts, suggesting that current strength could be short-lived. The latest durable goods report, which only saw a modest rise of 0.7%, did not change this view and indicates a slowdown from previous strength. Therefore, traders might consider selling longer-dated call options or buying puts, as the dollar’s peak for this cycle may be approaching. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch raises forecasts for platinum, palladium, and silver prices
Investment Risks and Considerations
The information shared includes possible risks and uncertainties. The markets and instruments mentioned are for informational purposes only and are not investment recommendations. It’s important to do thorough research before making any investment decisions, as investing in open markets carries risks, including the potential loss of capital. The accuracy of the information provided is not guaranteed and should not be taken as investment advice. We believe that raising the silver price target to $39 creates a great opportunity for traders in derivatives to think about buying call options. The Silver Institute recently reported that global demand for silver is expected to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024. This would be the second-highest demand ever, driven by strong industrial use. This strong demand supports a positive outlook for silver in the coming weeks.Platinum and Palladium Market Conditions
The Gold/Silver ratio has dropped from over 90 earlier this year to around 78 now, showing silver’s recent strength. Over the last 20 years, this ratio has averaged closer to 60, indicating that silver has a lot of potential to outperform gold. This relative value makes taking long positions in silver, possibly hedged against short positions in gold, an appealing strategy. For platinum, the new target of $1,350 suggests that traders should look into bullish positions using long-dated futures or bull call spreads. One important factor is that platinum is increasingly being used instead of palladium in automotive catalysts. The World Platinum Investment Council predicts a supply deficit of 418,000 ounces for 2024. This supply-demand mismatch supports a likely rise in price. Given the expectations for palladium to underperform, we suggest being cautious about taking long positions. Instead, consider protective put options. The market is experiencing challenges from the shift to electric vehicles and the increased use of platinum, creating a structural surplus for palladium. This suggests that palladium prices may not keep pace with other precious metals. The overall market environment, with growing expectations for interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve later this year, offers strong support for these trades. Lower interest rates often weaken the dollar and reduce the cost of holding non-yielding assets. This macroeconomic situation strengthens our positive outlook for the precious metals market. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Carsten Fritsch notes a 3.5% drop in China’s gold demand due to strong investment interest.
Gold demand in China fell by 3.5% in the first half of the year compared to last year. While jewellery demand dropped 26% to 200 tonnes, a 24% rise in demand for bars and coins to 264 tonnes helped lessen the decline.
These mixed trends show that bars and coins have surpassed jewellery in popularity. This shift is due to uncertainty around US trade policies. High prices hurt jewellery demand, while bars and coins thrived as safe investments.
Shift from Consumption to Investment
Gold serves two purposes: it is both a safe asset and a component of jewellery, where demand varies. Investment demand often influences price changes more than jewellery demand, which tends to stabilize prices. We believe the change in China’s gold demand from spending to investment sends a strong positive signal for gold. This shift indicates that the market focus is moving toward investment-driven pricing rather than sensitive jewellery purchases. Traders should prepare for rising prices in the coming weeks. This trend is backed by government policy. The People’s Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 17 straight months, holding over 2,262 tonnes as of March 2024. This ongoing buying from the central bank creates a solid price support and suggests a move away from the US dollar, a trend retail investors are starting to follow. It clearly shows that institutions believe in the value of gold.Outlook for Gold Prices
Many major financial institutions share this view. Analysts like Citi’s Aakash Doshi predict that prices could reach $3,000 an ounce within a year. The rise in safe-haven investments, fueled by global economic uncertainty and geopolitical issues, supports these high price expectations. We recommend buying call options or setting up bull call spreads to take advantage of this potential increase. Typically, gold priced in local currency acts as a good hedge for Chinese investors during times when the yuan is weak. The yuan recently dropped to a four-month low against the dollar, alongside ongoing problems in the property market, leading more people to seek gold for safety. This internal pressure will likely boost investment more than discretionary spending. Data from the COMEX shows that money managers have raised their net-long futures positions to the highest in four years. This means that big speculators agree with our outlook and are betting on higher prices ahead. Now is a good time to build a long position instead of waiting for a significant price drop. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.In July, Brazil’s mid-month inflation was 0.33%, surpassing the predicted 0.3%
In July, Brazil’s inflation rate rose to 0.33%, surpassing the expected 0.3%. This shows a slight shift from what was anticipated.
The EUR/USD pair is under slight negative pressure but remains above 1.1700. The US Dollar is stable, thanks to positive sentiments around US-China trade relations. In contrast, the British Pound is struggling near the 1.3400 support level, influenced by the strength of the US Dollar and poor retail sales in the UK for June.
Gold and Cryptocurrency Trends
Gold prices are falling, staying around $3,330 per troy ounce as interest in the US Dollar grows. The cryptocurrency market is trying to stabilize after Bitcoin dropped to $114,723, but efforts to recover are ongoing. The Federal Reserve is facing criticism for delaying rate cuts in this uncertain tariff climate. Even with a resilient economy, there are worries that the Fed may have acted too late, especially as signs of weakness appear in the labor market. For those trading EUR/USD, choosing the right broker is crucial. Consider brokers offering competitive spreads and strong platforms for effective navigation in the foreign exchange market. With the Federal Reserve’s hesitance on rate cuts, the US Dollar faces uncertainty. Recent data shows US unemployment rising to 4.0%, confirming labor market struggles, even as inflation remains a concern. This mixed data suggests volatility, making options strategies that benefit from price fluctuations in the dollar index a wise choice.Impact of Central Bank Policies
The pressure on the EUR/USD is likely to continue since the European Central Bank is already cutting rates, creating a difference in policy. Historically, when the Fed keeps rates steady while other major central banks reduce them, the dollar strengthens significantly. Therefore, buying put options on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD can help protect against further losses in these pairs. Gold’s price drop to around $2,320 per ounce offers a strategic opportunity for long-term investment. Although a strong dollar may be a temporary challenge, central banks are still significant buyers, adding a net 290 tonnes in the first quarter of 2024, which helps support prices. We are considering long-dated call options for a future rally when US monetary policy changes. Brazil’s higher-than-expected inflation supports the idea that its central bank will keep the Selic interest rate higher than the current 10.50%. This makes the Brazilian Real appealing for carry trades, where traders borrow in low-interest currencies to invest in higher-yielding ones. Using futures to buy the Real against the US Dollar can be a good way to take advantage of this yield difference. The cryptocurrency market is consolidating, with Bitcoin around $65,000 after significant outflows from spot ETFs. This “search for stability” usually signals a big movement, but the direction is unclear. This situation makes volatility trades, like long straddles using options, an efficient way for traders to profit from a potential breakout without guessing its direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Carsten Fritsch from Commerzbank says gold price declines reversed previous weekly gains.
The price of gold has fallen over the past two days, reversing gains made earlier in the week. Gold is currently trading just below $3,350 per troy ounce.
This drop is largely due to easing trade tensions. Recently, the US and Japan reached an agreement, which could pave the way for a similar deal between the US and the EU.
Increased Risk Appetite
Growing optimism is boosting risk appetite in financial markets, as shown by rising stock prices. When investors feel confident, they tend to seek riskier assets, reducing their demand for gold as a safe haven. Despite this trend, Gold ETFs monitored by Bloomberg saw inflows of 20 tonnes in the first four trading days of the week, mostly during the period when gold prices were rising. This information includes forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets, and careful research should be conducted before making any investment decisions. Currently, gold prices close to $2,350 per troy ounce highlight a classic struggle between risk-on sentiment and economic uncertainty. The strong performance of equity markets, particularly with the S&P 500 hitting record highs above 5,400, is pulling money away from traditional safe havens. This situation suggests that gold prices may face pressure in the short term.Trading Strategies
For traders expecting a further decline, buying put options with a strike price around $2,300 can be a low-risk way to take advantage of this trend. As geopolitical tensions ease, especially with progress in trade talks, the need for portfolio insurance decreases. This bearish outlook is further supported by recent outflows from major gold ETFs, including nearly $500 million withdrawn from the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) fund last week. However, we should also consider significant recent purchases. According to the latest World Gold Council data, central banks bought a net 290 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2024. This strong institutional demand creates solid support for prices, suggesting that any major drop could be seen as a buying opportunity by larger investors. This underlying support makes taking a purely short position challenging. Additionally, recent US economic data presents a mixed view. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows that inflation has cooled to 3.3%, while the Federal Reserve remains cautious about maintaining higher interest rates for longer. Historically, gold prices tend to do well early in monetary easing cycles, like the significant rally that began in late 2008 when the Fed aggressively cut rates. Should the central bank shift towards rate cuts in the future, it could trigger a major rally for gold. Given these conflicting factors, a strategy focusing on volatility rather than a specific market direction is wise. One could establish a long straddle by purchasing both a call and a put option with the same strike price and expiration date. This allows traders to benefit from significant price movements in either direction, enabling them to react to upcoming inflation reports or central bank announcements without a commitment to a single outcome. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The Euro loses 0.2% against the US Dollar, giving up some recent gains, says Scotiabank.
The Euro (EUR) has seen a slight drop of 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD), giving back some of this week’s earlier gains. However, interest rate differences still favor the Euro, helping it recover from losses earlier in July.
The European Central Bank has kept its current policies in place. This has caused a rethink in the market’s expectations for rate cuts, which are now projected to be about 15 basis points by the end of the year—10 basis points less than before.
Euro Bullish Multi-Month Trend
Germany’s IFO sentiment figures matched expectations, while preliminary CPI data will be released next week. The Euro is on a bullish trend over the past several months, showing higher lows and highs since February, along with a bullish RSI above 50. In the near term, we expect the Euro to trade between 1.1700 for support and 1.1780 for resistance. It’s crucial to do thorough research before making any investment choices, as investing carries risks, including the loss of your entire principal. Due to the favorable interest rate differences, we view the recent dip as a potential buying opportunity. The European Central Bank’s stance indicates fewer rate cuts ahead, with money markets now pricing in a single 15 basis point reduction by the end of 2024— a notable change from earlier predictions. This supportive environment leads us to maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook on the currency.Strategy and Positioning
The upcoming preliminary CPI data for the Eurozone is a significant event to watch. September’s headline inflation was 2.9% year-over-year. If the new data comes in higher, it will strengthen the central bank’s position and likely push the Euro higher. We should be prepared for possible increased volatility around this release. Considering the expected trading range, we can use options to take advantage of sideways movements. Selling out-of-the-money puts near the 1.1700 support level may be a good strategy to collect premiums, as we believe this level will hold. This method will gain from time decay as long as the Euro remains stable. For those who support the bullish multi-month trend, buying longer-dated call options can be a way to benefit from potential price rises beyond the immediate range. Historically, when interest rate expectations between the US and Europe shift in favor of the Euro, the EUR/USD has shown sustained uptrends for several quarters. This was clear during the rally starting in late 2022 after the policy changes. However, we need to stay alert to underlying economic weaknesses, as seen in the February reading of the German IFO business climate index at 87.3. A significant drop below the 1.1700 support level would undermine the immediate bullish outlook. This level is crucial for managing risk on any long derivative positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Oil rig count falls by seven, gas rigs rise, and crude oil prices drop to $65.42
The Baker Hughes report shows a drop of 7 oil rigs, bringing the total to 415. Gas rigs went up by 5, reaching a total of 122. This means there was a net loss of 2 rigs, giving a combined total of 542.
Crude oil is priced at $65.42, down by $0.61. During the trading week, oil tested its 100-day moving average, which now stands at $64.91.
Market Levels
The lowest price this week was $64.76 on Wednesday. However, the market couldn’t stay below the 100-day moving average. For the week, crude oil prices fell by $0.63, or 0.96%, compared to these market levels. The drop of seven oil rigs is a positive sign for crude oil prices. With only 415 active oil rigs, U.S. producers appear to be cautious, not aggressively increasing drilling even as prices are healthier. This careful approach suggests that production growth will be slow. Historically, the current number of rigs is very low. Before the pandemic in early 2020, the count was over 670. This shows drillers are hesitant to increase activity, despite better prices. This disciplined method should help balance supply and demand in the coming months.Reduced Supply Implications
Recent government data backs up this view. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently reported a significant drop in commercial crude oil inventories, with stocks down by 7.9 million barrels. This larger-than-expected fall indicates that demand is outpacing supply, and a falling rig count will only speed this up. As Michalowski’s analysis suggests, the price found strong support at the 100-day moving average. Not breaking below $64.76 shows that buyers are stepping in during dips, creating a solid base for the market. This technical strength combined with fewer rigs presents a clear opportunity. Considering these factors, we suggest that derivative traders look into bullish positions. Buying out-of-the-money call options or using bull call spreads for the coming months would be a way to benefit from expected price rises. These strategies provide a low-risk way to profit if crude oil rallies off this support and tightens in supply. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The USDCHF is caught between key moving averages, impacting bullish and bearish market dynamics going forward.
The USDCHF started the week strong, hitting a peak on Monday in the swing range of 0.8017 to 0.8023. However, after dropping below the 200-hour moving average at 0.79836, the pair stayed under this level for the rest of the week. If it rises above this average, we might see a short-term bullish trend.
Midweek Market Movement
During the middle of the week, sellers pushed the pair down, with lows reaching below 0.79197 on Wednesday and Thursday. Despite this drop, momentum slowed, and the price bounced back by the end of the trading day, although it remained below the 100-hour moving average. Today, buyers came back, supporting the price at 0.79471, keeping the pair between the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. As we head into the new trading week, attention will be on the 100-hour moving average at 0.79490 and the 200-hour moving average at 0.79836. These levels will shape market sentiment. If the price goes above the 200-hour moving average, it could suggest bullish potential. Conversely, staying below the 100-hour moving average may point to a bearish outlook. Key resistance levels are at 0.79836 and 0.8017–0.8023, while support can be found at 0.79496 and lower swings around 0.7938 to 0.7947 and 0.79197. According to Michalowski’s analysis, the USDCHF is currently indecisive, mirroring a broader conflict between central bank policies. The US Federal Reserve is maintaining high rates, while the Swiss National Bank has started cutting rates since March, becoming the first major central bank to do so. This tug-of-war is keeping the price pinned between the key moving averages.Potential Trading Strategies
We should look for a catalyst. Recent US inflation data for May was slightly lower than expected at 3.3%, raising speculation that the Fed might cut rates by September. This adds weight to the resistance at the 200-hour moving average, making it a strong barrier for now. Thus, selling call options or buying short-term puts near the 0.79836 level could be a smart strategy until a clear breakout occurs. On the other hand, Switzerland’s inflation remains low at 1.4%, giving its central bank reasons to cut rates again at its next meeting in late June. This offers robust support for USDCHF, explaining why sellers couldn’t push below 0.79197 last week. This historical support suggests that buying call options or selling puts on any dip toward the 100-hour moving average might be profitable. Given the tight consolidation, a volatility-based strategy seems best for the upcoming weeks. We can set up a long strangle by purchasing both an out-of-the-money call option above the 200-hour MA and an out-of-the-money put option below the 100-hour MA. This position will gain from a significant price movement in either direction, which seems likely once the Fed or SNB provides clearer direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.UOB Group expects the USD/CNH to fluctuate between 7.1440 and 7.1630.
The US Dollar is projected to trade between 7.1440 and 7.1630 against the Chinese Yuan. UOB Group’s FX analysts suggest that, in the long run, the USD could fall to 7.1295.
On Wednesday, the US Dollar ended lower at 7.1514, dropping 0.25%. It briefly fell to 7.1435 before bouncing back to close at 7.1549, showing a slight rise of 0.05%. The currency appears to be in a phase of range-bound trading.
