Nomura expects the ECB to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% at its 19 March meeting, despite the Iran conflict. It expects the Governing Council to wait for clearer evidence on effects on the real economy and inflation expectations. Nomura forecasts March 2026 HICP inflation will be 0.5–0.7 percentage points higher than it otherwise would have been. It raised its March 2026 forecast by 0.6 percentage points to 2.5% year-on-year.

ECB Rate Outlook

It also expects the ECB to stay on hold in April. Nomura says the ECB may still point to inflation stabilising around its target by the end of its forecast horizon in Q4 2028. Nomura expects the ECB to want proof of persistent inflation or higher inflation expectations before raising rates. It puts June as the earliest feasible date for a rise, assuming the conflict does not worsen beyond its recent peak. If the ECB does raise rates in response to the conflict, Nomura expects two increases. The article notes it was produced with help from an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. With the ECB meeting just a week away on March 19, we are not expecting a change to the 2.00% deposit rate. Last week’s escalation in the Strait of Hormuz has sent shockwaves through energy markets, but the central bank will likely want to assess the real impact first. Brent crude futures settling above $95/barrel yesterday for the first time since late 2025 will certainly be on their minds.

June Meeting Focus

We anticipate President Lagarde will sound dovish on the immediate outlook, stressing that inflation should stabilize by 2028. However, she will also be keen to avoid a repeat of the 2022 energy crisis, a hawkish signal that implies a readiness to act later. This mixed messaging suggests traders should prepare for a spike in short-term rate volatility. The real action for derivatives pricing is shifting towards the June meeting, which is now the first credible opportunity for a rate hike. We are seeing this reflected in the market already, as the 5-year/5-year inflation swap rate has ticked up to 2.40% this week. Any upcoming inflation data showing persistent price pressures will accelerate the pricing of a summer rate increase. Consequently, traders should consider positioning for higher rates in the second quarter, potentially through forward rate agreements or receiving fixed on short-dated swaps. Given the uncertainty, buying options that protect against a sharp rate rise, such as interest rate caps or payer swaptions, could be a prudent strategy. This is a very different environment than the stable rate outlook we had at the end of 2025. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Start trading now – Click here to create your real VT Markets account

A Reuters poll released on 12 March says economists expect the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged at its March meeting. The poll finds 85% expect the bank rate to stay at 3.75% on 19 March, up from 35% in February. The median forecast points to the bank rate falling to 3.25% by the end of September. It is then expected to remain at 3.25% until at least the end of 2026.

Bank Inflation Outlook Before Iran War

In the Monetary Policy Report published on 5 February, the Bank projected CPI inflation would slow to 2.1% in 2026 Q2. That projection was made before the Iran war began. The Bank will meet on 18 March and announce its decision on 19 March. The next Monetary Policy Report is due at the 30 April meeting. The Bank of England sets monetary policy to meet a 2% inflation target, mainly by changing base lending rates. These decisions affect borrowing costs across the economy and can move the value of sterling. When inflation is above target, higher rates can support sterling; when inflation is below target, lower rates can weigh on it. Quantitative easing involves creating money to buy assets and can weaken sterling, while quantitative tightening reduces bond purchases and can support sterling.

Market Expectations Then Versus Now

Looking back at this time in 2025, the consensus was clear that the Bank of England would hold rates before starting a cutting cycle later in the year. That view was based on inflation projections that did not account for the subsequent geopolitical shocks. The expectation for rates to be at 3.25% by now has not materialized. The Iran war, which began in mid-2025, created a significant energy price shock that disrupted the disinflationary trend. We saw Brent crude prices spike to over $110 a barrel in the third quarter of 2025, feeding directly into higher transport and energy costs for British consumers. This unforeseen event made the Bank’s previous inflation forecasts obsolete. As a result, inflation has remained stubbornly high, with the latest CPI data for February 2026 coming in at 3.4%, well above the Bank’s 2% target. This is a stark contrast to the BoE’s projection from February 2025, which saw inflation falling to 2.1% by this quarter. The reality of persistent price pressures has completely altered the interest rate landscape. Consequently, the Bank of England never initiated the cutting cycle forecasted last year; the Bank Rate today stands at 4.0%. Recent Office for National Statistics data showed the UK economy stalled with 0% growth in the last quarter of 2025, raising concerns about stagflation. This puts the Bank in a difficult position ahead of its meeting next week. For the coming weeks, traders should be positioned for continued hawkishness from the Bank of England. Derivative markets are now pricing in a low probability of any rate cuts before the end of 2026. Any trades betting on lower rates, which seemed sensible in early 2025, now carry significant risk. This environment suggests looking at options to trade volatility around the Pound Sterling. While higher-for-longer rates are theoretically supportive for GBP, the weak growth outlook provides a strong headwind, creating uncertainty. Volatility in GBP/USD has picked up, with one-month implied volatility now trading near 8.5%, up from 6% at the start of the year. Traders should also monitor UK Gilt markets, as the yield on the 10-year Gilt has remained elevated around 4.3%. Interest rate futures can be used to hedge or speculate on the Bank holding rates firm through the summer. The focus must be on incoming inflation and wage data, as these will be the primary drivers of monetary policy. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Start trading now – Click here to create your real VT Markets account

Rising oil prices are reducing eurozone household purchasing power, mainly through higher fuel costs. Driving behaviour has mostly returned to pre-pandemic patterns, so cutting mileage to offset higher pump prices may be limited. Only the pandemic years showed clear departures from the long-term average in driving distances, linked to widespread working from home. Fuel prices were not cited as the main reason for those changes.

Income Squeeze From Fuel Costs

As mileage normalises, a larger share of disposable income is expected to go on fuel. In Germany, this share is forecast to rise to 3.5% from 2.8% last year. Last year, the share of disposable income spent on fuel was around 2% in the Netherlands and 4.5% in Portugal. This suggests uneven pressure across countries as energy costs rise. Higher energy prices are also expected to add strain to consumer confidence, which is already low. The piece notes that pump prices tend to rise faster than they fall, affecting both confidence and purchasing power. With Brent crude oil prices now hovering around $95 a barrel, the squeeze on household purchasing power is becoming a primary market theme. The core issue is that driving patterns have returned to pre-pandemic norms, meaning consumers cannot easily cut back on fuel usage. This directly erodes disposable income, creating a significant headwind for the economy.

Trading Implications For European Markets

This pressure is already visible in sentiment data, with the latest European Commission figures showing consumer confidence dipping further to -18.5. Historically, when confidence is this low and household budgets are strained, spending on non-essential goods is the first to be cut. We anticipate weakness in sectors heavily reliant on discretionary spending. For traders, this points toward a bearish stance on consumer-facing European equities. Buying put options on automotive and retail sector ETFs could offer a way to capitalize on a slowdown in consumption over the coming weeks. Individual company stocks in these sectors are also likely to face downward pressure. The most recent macroeconomic data, which showed Eurozone retail sales falling by 0.4% in January, confirms this trend is already underway. This broader economic drag suggests short positions on major indices, like the Euro Stoxx 50, could be warranted. Protective puts on the index can serve as an effective hedge against a wider market downturn. This environment presents a dilemma for the European Central Bank, as the latest flash estimate showed headline inflation ticking up to 2.8% even as growth falters. This could delay anticipated rate cuts, creating opportunities in interest rate derivatives that bet on rates remaining higher for longer than currently priced in. This policy uncertainty could also weigh on the EUR/USD exchange rate. Looking back at the energy shock of 2022 from our perspective in 2025, we observed a very similar dynamic where elevated energy costs quickly translated into weaker consumption and a broader economic slowdown. That historical precedent suggests the market may be underestimating how rapidly this situation can impact corporate earnings. This makes positions that profit from increased market volatility, such as buying options on the VSTOXX index, appear attractive. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Start trading now – Click here to create your real VT Markets account

HSBC links support for global and US equities to earnings momentum tied to AI adoption, fiscal spending and cyclicals. It says the recent technology sell-off has improved valuations and supports a broad sector allocation. The bank reports US earnings growth remained strong in Q4 2025, linked to AI use, software demand and margin expansion. It expects this to continue, led by technology and cyclical sectors.

Positive Cyclical Backdrop

HSBC notes a positive cyclical backdrop, supported by investment spending and fiscal measures. It says this expands opportunities in Industrials and can also lift Materials through infrastructure activity. The bank says Utilities benefit from rising electricity demand in the US, Asia and parts of Europe. It adds that a broad approach aims to reduce concentration in the US and technology. HSBC remains overweight global and US equities across IT, Communications, Financials, Industrials, Materials and Utilities. It has upgraded global Energy stocks to neutral due to higher oil supply risk from Middle East tensions. On regions, HSBC continues to favour the US while adding to Asia for diversification, valuations and innovation exposure. It adds that some emerging markets have outperformed as investors reduce US exposure.

Options Positioning And Risk Control

Given the strong earnings momentum we saw carry over from the fourth quarter of 2025, we believe the bullish case for equities remains intact. The tech sell-off late last year has made valuations more attractive, and with the VIX holding steady around 15, buying call options on broad indices like the S&P 500 is a favorable strategy. This allows for participation in the upside while defining risk in a market that is still digesting last year’s gains. The expansion of AI is creating tangible opportunities beyond software, especially in the industrial and materials sectors. With fiscal spending from infrastructure programs passed back in 2023 and 2024 now translating into real projects, we see continued strength here. Derivative traders should consider longer-dated call options on industrial ETFs like XLI, as government data from last month showed a 6% year-over-year increase in new orders for capital goods. We also see a clear, secular growth story in utilities, driven by the immense power demands of new data centers. Recent industry reports show that data center electricity consumption in the US grew by over 20% through 2025, a trend we expect to accelerate. This makes buying call options on the utilities sector (XLU) more than just a defensive play; it is a way to gain exposure to the physical backbone of the AI revolution. Geographically, we should continue to look outside the US to diversify and capture value, particularly in Asia. Japan’s Nikkei index had a landmark year in 2025, and we are now seeing increased investor flows into India and South Korea, where tech and manufacturing sectors are showing strong growth prospects. Using options on ETFs like the iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) can provide targeted exposure to these expanding markets. Finally, with ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East causing crude oil prices to hover near $90 a barrel, we must manage risk in the energy sector. While we are neutral on energy stocks themselves, the elevated volatility presents an opportunity for derivative plays like call spreads on energy ETFs such as XLE. This strategy allows us to profit from a potential spike in oil prices while capping our maximum loss if tensions ease. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Start trading now – Click here to create your real VT Markets account

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said any release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve would likely be done through swaps. He said swaps are meant to cover short-term supply breaks without direct cost to taxpayers. He said a release could help the oil market get through a few weeks of disruption. The comments were reported by Reuters, based on interviews with CNBC and CNN.

Strait Of Hormuz Risks

The remarks came as tensions involving Iran raised concerns about the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is a key route for global oil shipments. Wright said reopening the strait is a priority. He said Iran’s ability to threaten regional shipping must be neutralised. He said any military operation linked to the crisis would likely take weeks, not months. He also said US naval escorts for commercial vessels are not in place now, but could be possible before the end of the month. Wright said oil markets in the Western Hemisphere are “not really tight” compared with Asia. After the comments, West Texas Intermediate rose 5.10% on Thursday to about $91.75 per barrel.

Trading And Hedging Implications

With WTI crude jumping over 5% to pass $91, the immediate focus is on volatility. Geopolitical risk is being priced back into the market, meaning implied volatility on options will surge. We should consider strategies like straddles or strangles that profit from large price swings in either direction, as official statements conflict with the market’s fear. The signal of a Strategic Petroleum Reserve swap, not a direct sale, is meant to calm the market by offering a short-term supply bridge. This suggests that selling near-term, high-premium call options could be a viable strategy, betting that a release will cap any immediate runaway rally. We saw how the massive releases back in 2022 put a temporary ceiling on prices, and the market will remember that. The key takeaway is the difference between Western and Asian markets. This points directly to trading the Brent-WTI spread, which should widen significantly as Brent is far more exposed to any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. With roughly 21 million barrels per day passing through that chokepoint, we can expect the spread to push well beyond its recent $4 range. Despite the talk of a “weeks-long” resolution, the underlying threat of a wider conflict will support prices for longer. Buying call options dated further out, for instance in the June or July 2026 contracts, allows us to maintain bullish exposure beyond the expected period of an SPR swap. This is especially true as global oil demand remains robust, with recent forecasts projecting growth of over 1.2 million barrels per day this year. For consumers of fuel, like airlines and industrial companies, now is a critical time to hedge against further price shocks. Locking in costs by buying futures or call options is prudent, as the risk of crude oil testing $100 per barrel is now very real. With the SPR holding just over 360 million barrels, we know its ability to manage a prolonged outage is much more limited than it was years ago. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Start trading now – Click here to create your real VT Markets account

TD Securities reports that Shanghai silver arbitrage indicates strong buying in China, while Western market participants remain cautious following the Iran conflict. It says this difference comes as London over-the-counter markets continue to take in flows. The note links the renewed Chinese demand to an earlier period of “unprecedented” retail silver demand in the early months of 2026. It adds that this demand impulse began in the days leading up to the war in Iran.

China Demand Diverges From The West

TD Securities says silver lease rates in London point to improving availability. It also states that global silver inventory coverage is improving compared with earlier tightness. The article says it was produced with the help of an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. It is attributed to the FXStreet Insights Team, which selects market observations from external experts and adds analysis from internal and external contributors. We see a clear split in the silver market following the Iran conflict last week. While Western investors remain cautious, we have seen outflows of over 10 million ounces from major silver ETFs since the event began. This hesitation is being offset by a resurgence of strong physical demand from China. The Shanghai arbitrage is telling a powerful story, with premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange holding above $0.75 per ounce compared to London prices. This is supported by strong industrial activity, as recent data for February 2026 showed China’s solar panel output increasing 15% year-over-year. This indicates that Chinese buying is not just for investment but for real industrial use.

London Supply Signals Improve

For our part, we are watching the improving supply situation in London’s over-the-counter markets. Silver lease rates have fallen, which points to better availability and contrasts sharply with the tightness we experienced earlier in the year. Last week’s Commitments of Traders report also showed managed money traders reducing their net long positions in silver futures for a second consecutive week. This is a significant change from the supply concerns we saw throughout much of 2025, when inventories were drawing down at an alarming rate. That period of tightness seems to be easing for the time being. The current conditions suggest that global silver inventories are stabilizing, not shrinking. This dynamic points toward a range-bound market in the coming weeks, where Chinese demand provides a floor while Western caution and improving supply create a ceiling. A strategy of selling out-of-the-money call options against existing positions could be considered to generate income from the expected lack of a major breakout. Options traders might also look at strategies that profit from low volatility, as the two opposing market forces could keep prices contained. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Start trading now – Click here to create your real VT Markets account

ECB officials have become more hawkish as energy-led inflation risks return. One forecast still expects only one ECB rate rise, late in 2026. Market pricing moved from expecting 8–9bp of ECB cuts this year (as of 27 February) to pricing a cumulative 40bp of hikes in 2026. ECB work points to long delays between policy shifts and changes in inflation, especially in services.

Monetary Policy Transmission Lag

ECB research says a 50bp rate rise can lower inflation by 0.2–0.3% within 12–18 months. For services inflation, the transmission can take more than 24 months. The long lag is linked to the recent hawkish tone from ECB members before clearer inflation outcomes. The article also notes that more aggressive fiscal support could reduce concerns about growth when central banks consider further rate rises, especially those near neutral such as the ECB. The item was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. It was published under the byline FXStreet Insights Team, described as journalists selecting market observations and adding notes from internal and external analysts. We are seeing a more aggressive tone from the European Central Bank, driven by renewed inflation worries. Recent data showing Eurozone inflation ticked up to 2.8% in February, largely due to a spike in energy costs, confirms these concerns. The market has reacted by pricing in a significant 40 basis points of rate hikes for this year.

Implications For Rate Markets

However, this market pricing seems to be getting ahead of itself, as our base case still points to only one potential rate hike late this year. We must remember the lessons from the 2025 perspective, where the full impact of the earlier tightening cycle took over a year to filter through the economy. The long transmission lag for policy changes, especially in the services sector, suggests the ECB is talking tough now to manage expectations long before any actual moves. For derivative traders, this suggests an opportunity to position against the market’s overly hawkish stance in the coming weeks. One could look at interest rate swaps maturing late in 2026, positioning to receive the fixed rate. This strategy would profit if the ECB hikes less than the 40 basis points currently priced in. The main risk to this view is a shift towards aggressive government spending, which would lessen the economic growth risks of monetary tightening. Discussions around new fiscal support measures to offset high energy bills, for example, could give the ECB more freedom to hike rates. Traders should therefore monitor fiscal policy announcements from major Eurozone governments closely. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Start trading now – Click here to create your real VT Markets account

USD/JPY traded around 158.90 on Thursday and was little changed on the day. It stayed near yearly highs, supported by a firm US Dollar and expectations that Japan may slowly move towards less loose policy. Tensions in the Middle East remained a focus. Iran said it launched its most intense operation since the war began and tried to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil flows.

Us Inflation Data And Fed Outlook

Israel’s Defence Forces reported a wide wave of strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure. Any wider escalation involving Iran, the US, Israel, or regional states could increase demand for the Japanese Yen and pressure USD/JPY. US data on Wednesday showed CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in February, up from 0.2%, matching expectations. Core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month after 0.3%, also in line with forecasts. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged on 18 March. Attention has also turned to rising oil prices, which could lift headline inflation in coming months. DBS said USD/JPY is testing resistance around 159–160 and noted the Bank of Japan meets on 19 March. MUFG said higher energy prices worsen Japan’s trade position and may reduce the chance of near-term currency intervention.

Volatility Setup Into Key Central Bank Meetings

With USD/JPY testing the critical 159-160 resistance zone, we should prepare for a spike in volatility. Next week’s central bank meetings on March 18 (Fed) and March 19 (BoJ) are the key catalysts everyone is watching. Short-term option pricing already shows increased premiums, signaling market anticipation of a decisive move. The geopolitical risk from the Middle East is directly impacting oil prices, which is a major factor here. Brent crude has now pushed past $91 per barrel, its highest level in over five months, which complicates the inflation outlook for everyone. This tension could trigger a flight to safety, strengthening the JPY and causing a sharp dip in the pair. On the other hand, the US dollar remains well-supported by sticky inflation data. The most recent reports show core inflation is still holding around 3.7%, giving the Federal Reserve no reason to signal rate cuts. This underlying dollar strength creates a solid floor for USD/JPY, making a sustained sell-off less likely without a new catalyst. We must also consider Japan’s stance on intervention, which seems to have shifted since last year. We remember how officials in 2025 issued strong verbal warnings as the pair approached these levels, but ultimately held back from spending reserves. This past inaction suggests they might tolerate a weaker yen for now to combat the negative effects of high energy import costs. Given the coiled-up nature of this market, buying volatility is a sensible approach. Strategies like a long straddle, using options that expire after next week’s meetings, could be effective. This allows a trader to profit from a significant price swing in either direction, whether it’s a breakout above 160 or a sharp rejection lower. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Start trading now – Click here to create your real VT Markets account

New US jobless claims fell to 213K in the week ending March 7, below the 215K forecast. The prior week was revised to 214K from 213K. The 4-week moving average dropped by 4K to 212K, from a revised 216K. Continuing claims fell by 21K to 1.850M in the week ending February 28.

Dollar Reaction And Market Context

After the data, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to around 99.50, its highest level in three days. The report cited ongoing geopolitical tensions as a factor supporting the dollar. Employment levels can influence currencies because they affect consumer spending and economic growth. Tight labour markets can also affect inflation and monetary policy through wage pressure. Wage growth matters for policymakers because higher pay can lift household spending and raise prices. Central banks monitor wages as a source of more persistent inflation than items such as energy. Central banks weigh employment based on their mandates. The Federal Reserve targets maximum employment and stable prices, while the ECB focuses on inflation, but both use labour data when assessing inflation risks.

How The Setup Changed Into 2026

Looking back to this time in 2025, we saw initial jobless claims holding strong at 213,000, signaling a very tight labor market. This strength helped push the US Dollar Index up towards the 99.50 mark. The data from early March 2025 painted a picture of a robust economy that kept the Federal Reserve focused on inflation. Fast forward to today, March 12, 2026, and the picture has shifted slightly, creating opportunities for traders. The latest report for the first week of March showed initial claims have edged up to 225,000. More importantly, continuing claims have risen over the last quarter to 1.95 million, suggesting it is taking longer for people to find new work. This gradual cooling of the labor market is exactly what the Federal Reserve has been aiming for with its policy. Even with the US Dollar Index now trading higher around 104, the Fed sees this softening as a necessary step to manage persistent inflation, which still sits at 3.1% as of February. The dual mandate of employment and price stability is being carefully balanced. For derivative traders, this means we should be positioning for increased volatility in interest rate markets. Options on Treasury futures could be attractive as the market prices in the timing of a potential Fed rate cut later this year. The strong dollar may face headwinds if the labor market continues to weaken faster than expected. We should also reconsider strategies built around continued dollar strength. While the dollar is currently firm, options that bet on a decline, or “puts” on the DXY, could serve as a valuable hedge. The narrative that supported the dollar throughout 2025—an exceptionally tight labor market—is beginning to show cracks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Start trading now – Click here to create your real VT Markets account

The United States goods and services trade balance was $-54.5bn in January. This was above expectations of $-66.6bn. The January trade balance coming in at $-54.5B, much better than the expected $-66.6B, points to unexpected strength in the US economy. This reinforces the case for a stronger US dollar, as it suggests greater foreign demand for American goods and services. We should consider positioning for further dollar upside through derivatives, perhaps by buying call options on the dollar index or selling puts on currency pairs like the EUR/USD.

Implications For Monetary Policy

This robust data makes an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut less probable, especially following the latest February inflation report showing a stubborn 3.1% annual rate. Looking back at the market’s consensus for multiple rate cuts in 2025, this new information forces a recalibration of interest rate expectations. Traders should consider selling SOFR futures to price out some of the easing anticipated for the second half of this year. This American economic resilience stands in contrast to recent data from overseas, where manufacturing PMI figures in the Eurozone continue to show contraction below the 50 mark. This divergence supports strategies that benefit from a strong dollar, suggesting the trend that began in late 2025 could accelerate. The narrowing trade deficit, which directly adds to GDP calculations, strengthens this fundamental divergence narrative. For equity markets, this creates a complex scenario where a strong economy supports corporate earnings, but the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates could pressure valuations. We might consider selling out-of-the-money puts on cyclical sectors like industrials and materials that benefit from trade, collecting premium on the bet that economic strength provides a floor. This is a more cautious stance than the aggressive bullishness we saw at the start of the year. Ultimately, the conflict between strong economic data and a restrictive Fed policy could lead to increased market choppiness in the coming weeks. We should prepare for heightened volatility, possibly by purchasing VIX call options or using straddles on the S&P 500. This data challenges the simple soft-landing story and suggests a more complicated path ahead.

Positioning And Risk Management

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Start trading now – Click here to create your real VT Markets account