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Members have seen many profitable trading setups, including a 60% rise in NVIDIA stock recently.
NVIDIA’s stock has soared over 60% since April. The recent price correction found support at the Equal Legs zone, also called the Blue Box Area. According to the Elliott Wave analysis, there is a 7-swing pattern with a pullback to a buyers’ zone ranging from 101.78 to 76.16. The correction finished at 83.65, and a rally to new highs was expected.
In less than three months, NVIDIA’s stock has risen as predicted, reaching all-time highs. This upward movement started from the Blue Box buying zone after a smart buying decision. Experts suggest holding onto the stock and not selling during any pullbacks due to its strong momentum.
It’s important to recognize the risks of trading in the Foreign Exchange market, as it can lead to losing all your initial investment. The expectations in trading recommendations or Elliott Wave analyses don’t guarantee success, and losses can happen. Intellectual property rights protect this content, and unauthorized sharing is prohibited.
Trading in the foreign exchange market requires a high level of caution since leverage can increase both profits and losses. Before getting involved, consider your goals, experience, and risk tolerance.
We believe the analysis predicting the rally from the Blue Box area was spot on, paving the way for further gains. The stock has confirmed this outlook by reaching new all-time highs with strong momentum. We think this upward trend will continue for a while.
This positive technical performance is strengthened by the recent 10-for-1 stock split that occurred on June 10, 2024. Such splits often attract new investors and can keep positive sentiment alive in the following weeks. We view this split as a catalyst for continued growth rather than a peak.
For those trading derivatives, buying call options is a straightforward way to take part in the expected rise. Since selling during pullbacks is discouraged, these dips should be seen as chances to start or add to long call positions at better prices. Timing your entries will be critical to maximizing this strategy’s potential.
Alternatively, selling out-of-the-money put credit spreads or cash-secured puts can help traders earn premiums while maintaining a bullish outlook. The stock’s strong performance has kept implied volatility high, which is advantageous for options sellers. This strategy can profit from price increases, stable movements, and the passage of time.
We are further encouraged by the impressive Q1 earnings reported in May, where NVIDIA achieved $26.04 billion in revenue, far exceeding expectations. This shows that the stock’s rapid rise is supported by solid fundamentals and strong demand for its technology. We see a perfect match between the technical strength and the business reality.
Historically, market leaders often experience continued strength after a stock split, and we expect a similar trend. However, the leverage involved in derivatives means traders need to manage their position sizes carefully to handle any short-term price fluctuations. It’s crucial to assess your risk tolerance before using these powerful trading instruments.
U.S. crude oil stock change was -3.169 million, falling short of the forecasted -1.4 million
The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop in crude oil stocks of 3.169 million barrels, which was greater than the expected decrease of 1.4 million barrels for July 18, 2025. This indicates a more significant reduction in oil inventories than anticipated.
The AUD/USD traded at 0.6600, reaching new highs after four days of gains. This increase came after a positive sentiment following a trade agreement between the US and Japan.
Euro and US Dollar Movements
The EUR/USD rose for the fourth straight day, getting closer to the 1.1800 mark. This rise was fueled by a weaker US dollar and optimism regarding a potential deal between the US and EU. Gold prices fell to below $3,400 per troy ounce, influenced by reduced trade concerns. This change happened alongside the US-Japan agreement and the potential for US-EU deals. Bank of New York Mellon and Goldman Sachs announced a new opportunity for BNY clients to invest in money market funds. They will store ownership records using Goldman Sachs’ blockchain technology. Forex trading comes with significant risks. It’s essential to carefully consider your risk tolerance and investment goals before getting involved.Crude Stock Decline and Market Impact
The larger-than-expected drop in crude stocks indicates strong demand, which could drive prices upward. Recent data showed a decline in U.S. commercial crude inventories, with the EIA reporting a 2.5 million barrel drop when a build was expected. This suggests a bullish trend, making call options on WTI futures an appealing strategy to benefit from potential gains. The Australian dollar has been rallying due to a renewed appetite for risk, which we expect to continue. A weaker US dollar, which recently saw its index (DXY) fall below 105 due to softer inflation reports, is providing significant support. We are positioning ourselves for further gains by considering bullish option strategies on this currency pair. Likewise, the Euro’s rise is benefiting from dollar weakness and optimism about trade between the US and Europe. Historically, periods of global growth paired with a weaker dollar have pushed the EUR/USD to break significant resistance levels. Our derivatives teams are looking into bull call spreads to profit from continued momentum while managing our risk. Gold’s price drop reflects a classic ‘risk-on’ shift, as investors move away from safe-haven assets. This trend mirrors previous periods when easing geopolitical or trade tensions led to sharp declines in precious metal prices. Therefore, we see a chance to purchase put options for further declines in gold prices. The blockchain initiative by the two financial institutions is a significant long-term move. Their use of this technology for core services points toward improved efficiency and transparency in the financial system. We will keep an eye on how it affects the broader fintech landscape for new opportunities. Amid these developments, it’s crucial to understand the considerable risks in foreign exchange markets. Every trading decision should follow careful consideration of your risk appetite and objectives. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The S&P and Nasdaq hit record highs as major companies released their earnings.
The major U.S. stock indices ended the day at their highest points, with the S&P and NASDAQ hitting new records. The Dow Jones was just 4 points away from its all-time high.
– The Dow gained 507.85 points (1.14%) to close at 45,010.29.
– The S&P rose by 49.29 points (0.78%) to reach 6,358.91.
– The NASDAQ increased by 127.33 points (0.61%) to finish at 21,020.02.
– The Russell 2000 also climbed, adding 34.37 points (1.53%) to close at 2,283.12.
Corporate Earnings Reports
Trading was influenced by several earnings reports, starting with Alphabet. Alphabet’s Q2 2025 earnings surpassed expectations, reporting an EPS of $2.31 and revenue of $96.43B, even though its shares fell by $3.12. Tesla fell short on EPS expectations but did beat revenue forecasts; its shares dropped by $1.46. ServiceNow beat both EPS and revenue estimates, leading to a $56.73 increase in its shares. Chipotle met EPS expectations but missed on revenue, causing a drop of $4.78 in its shares. IBM also exceeded EPS and revenue expectations, but its shares fell by $13.26. Both T-Mobile and CSX surpassed earnings estimates; T-Mobile’s shares declined slightly, while CSX shares rose by $0.42. With the market at record highs, there’s growing optimism, but this calls for caution. The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey indicates that bullish sentiment is at nearly 45%, well above the historical average. This often signals potential market pullbacks, suggesting that complacency is setting in. Now is a good time to think about protective strategies.Market Volatility and Risk Management
The after-hours reactions to earnings reports serve as a warning sign. When a major player like Alphabet beats expectations but still sees a drop in share price, it indicates that high expectations are already built into the stock price. We believe that selling elevated volatility around future earnings, using strategies like short straddles or strangles, could be beneficial. Currently, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is trading near 13, a low level that suggests market calm is fragile. In the past, such low volatility periods, like in late 2021, have often preceded periods of sharp market turbulence. Therefore, purchasing longer-dated, out-of-the-money put options on major indices can provide inexpensive portfolio insurance. We’re also noticing a significant performance gap, with small-cap stocks outperforming mega-cap tech stocks. This could signal a shift, making options on the Russell 2000 more appealing for bullish plays compared to the NASDAQ. This strategy allows traders to remain invested while also moving away from the most crowded and vulnerable areas of the market. Given the uncertainty at these peak levels, we prefer defined-risk spreads over buying naked options. Bear call spreads on overextended tech stocks, or bull put spreads on the strengthening small-cap index, help capture premium while limiting potential losses. This is a smart way to manage risk when market direction is unclear. The market’s next major shift will likely depend on upcoming macroeconomic data, not just corporate earnings. With the latest jobs report showing a strong labor market, any signs of rising inflation in the next CPI report could push the Federal Reserve toward a more aggressive approach. This remains a key factor that could trigger the anticipated volatility. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Earnings per share, revenue, and capital expenditures surpassed forecasts, showing overall strong business growth.
Google’s Q2 2025 earnings report revealed earnings per share of $2.31, which is higher than the expected $2.18. Revenue reached $96.43 billion, exceeding the forecast of $93.97 billion.
Capital expenditures were $22.45 billion, well above the anticipated $18.24 billion. In the cloud segment, revenue was $13.62 billion, outpacing the expected $13.14 billion.
YouTube’s ad revenue hit $9.80 billion, surpassing the forecast of $9.56 billion. Revenue, excluding traffic acquisition costs (TAC), was $81.72 billion, above the estimate of $79.6 billion.
Total advertising revenue was $71.34 billion, higher than the estimate of $69.71 billion. Operating income stood at $31.27 billion, slightly higher than the projected $31.07 billion.
The forecast for full-year capital expenditures is now about $85 billion, increased from $75 billion, and above the previous $73.31 billion estimate. Artificial intelligence is driving growth across all areas of the business.
These results clearly validate the company’s core operations. The strong performance in Cloud and Advertising revenue reinforces its market position amid fierce competition. This robust revenue should provide support for the stock in the short term.
However, the significant rise in capital expenditures presents a challenge for traders. The updated forecast of around $85 billion is a substantial increase from roughly $32 billion spent in 2023. This level of spending could impact free cash flow and profit margins in the coming quarters.
We think this spending is linked to expanding AI infrastructure for competition, which is good for the long term but creates immediate uncertainty. This mix of strong current results and heavy future investment often leads to greater market volatility. So, strategies that benefit from price movements, not just direction, are becoming more appealing.
Considering the high cost of options, we recommend caution when buying calls or puts directly. Instead, traders might explore vertical spreads to limit risk and reduce the cost of entry for directional bets. Selling premium through strategies like iron condors could also work for those who expect the stock to stay within a new higher range after this initial movement.
Amid economic instability, more American savers see gold as essential for retirement strategies.
Many American savers are looking at Gold for their retirement plans due to economic uncertainty and market ups and downs. Adding Gold to an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) is gaining popularity because it provides security and helps diversify investments. Gold is seen as a stable option during inflation and global challenges.
A Self-Directed IRA allows you to include physical Gold, giving more flexibility compared to traditional or Roth IRAs. However, there are specific IRS rules about which types of Gold you can invest in, and this Gold must be kept with an authorized custodian—not at home.
Gold And Tax Advantages
Gold IRAs come with tax benefits similar to traditional IRAs, making them appealing for retirement planning. Besides tax perks, adding Gold can help diversify your portfolio, which can reduce risks and potential losses from stocks or bonds. Still, Gold IRAs have fees for opening, custody, and insurance. Gold does not generate passive income, and there may be liquidity issues, making transactions slower because of the need for intermediaries. Also, required minimum distributions apply starting at age 73 for traditional IRAs, whether or not you hold Gold. Experts suggest adding Gold carefully to your retirement plan, recommending an allocation of 5% to 10%. This strategy helps you take advantage of Gold’s benefits while controlling risks and costs. We’ve noticed a growing interest in Gold IRAs, indicating strong demand for the physical asset. This trend, driven by concerns about inflation and market instability, suggests a bullish outlook that traders can use. Continued long-term buying provides support for gold prices in the near future.Gold Prices And Future Trends
This positive sentiment is confirmed by recent data showing gold prices nearing all-time highs over $2,350 per ounce in May 2024. The World Gold Council also reported that central banks added a net 290 tonnes in the first quarter of 2024, highlighting strong institutional demand alongside retail interest, which boosts the metal’s sales. Given these factors, traders should consider long-biased strategies using options on gold futures or related ETFs. Buying call options can help you benefit from potential gains while limiting risk to the premium paid. This method allows you to take advantage of positive trends without the large cash investment needed for futures contracts. However, it’s important to be aware of the risks, especially that Gold does not yield income. Historically, Gold struggles when real interest rates are high, as investors find guaranteed returns elsewhere. With the U.S. Federal Reserve keeping rates steady, any unexpected rate hikes could push gold prices down, making long positions more expensive. The diversification benefit we mentioned is also seen in market volatility measures, such as the Cboe Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ). As geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty rise, we expect implied volatility in gold options to increase. Traders might then consider strategies to benefit from this rising volatility, making existing long call positions more appealing. The requirement for IRA holders to use custodians and the slower transaction process for physical Gold creates a steady demand. This structural element helps absorb market dips, offering buying opportunities for agile derivative traders. We believe this indicates that any price declines may be shallow and temporary in the near future. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.McDonald’s stock remains steady around $298 despite mixed consumer trends and pricing pressures.
McDonald’s stock is holding steady around $298, despite changing consumer habits and rising prices. The company is financially strong, with a market cap over $213 billion and a dividend yield of 2.37%, marking almost 50 years of increasing dividends.
Goldman Sachs has recently boosted its rating to “Buy,” citing McDonald’s product innovations and digital strategies to regain market share. The company is rolling out new menu items like snack wraps and the “daily double” burger to attract budget-conscious customers. They are also enhancing their drink offerings based on insights from the CosMc’s concept to encourage more foot traffic and larger purchases.
There’s also a change in leadership, with Annemarie Swijtink becoming CEO of McDonald’s Canada, indicating fresh strategic paths. McDonald’s is navigating a tough consumer environment with strong financial strategies, robust branding, and focused innovation. After a recent market correction, the stock price rebounded from a low of $276.80, indicating positive movement.
The current share price is within a changing market framework, which may lead to a leading diagonal pattern. If wave (5) exceeds $333.27, this structure will be invalid, requiring a new evaluation of the stock’s pattern and broader effects. For now, attention is on completing the diagonal and preparing for a potential pullback.
The recent bounce in the stock from its low is seen as a key buying signal, backed by Goldman Sachs’ upgrade. The new value items and improved beverage options should attract more customers soon, suggesting further upward potential, making short-term call options an appealing choice.
The company is focusing on cost-conscious consumers, with initiatives like the upcoming $5 meal deal directly responding to recent shopping habits. A new survey from Revenue Management Solutions indicates that 25% of lower-income Americans are cutting back on fast food due to high prices. This new promotion could bring in more customers and help drive the stock price higher.
However, the potential leading diagonal pattern raises a warning that a sharp downturn could follow the current rally. These patterns usually lead to deep pullbacks, erasing a large part of prior gains. Thus, we are considering buying put options to take advantage of a potential drop once the upward trend shows signs of slowing down.
Historically, the stock experiences significant corrections after strong performances, like the drop from nearly $300 to $246 in the latter half of 2023. The mixed fundamental and technical indicators suggest increased volatility. This makes strategies that benefit from large price movements, such as a long straddle, a sensible approach for the upcoming weeks.
Our bearish outlook depends on the stock staying below the $333.27 mark. A sustained move above that price would invalidate our diagonal pattern and force us to rethink our pullback strategy. We will monitor this level closely as it will be a key trigger for reassessing our position.
In Q2 2025, Tesla’s earnings missed estimates but shares rose due to ongoing vehicle rollout plans.
Tesla’s Q2 2025 earnings report revealed some disappointing results, but shares increased slightly in after-market trading. The company’s revenue was $22.50 billion, which was less than the expected $22.64 billion.
Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.33, lower than the predicted $0.42. The adjusted EPS was $0.40, also below the estimate of $0.42. However, the gross margin stood at 17.2%, exceeding the forecast of 16.5%. Free cash flow was $146 million, falling short of the expected $760 million.
Tesla is on track to introduce new vehicles in 2025, including a more affordable model in the first half. The company’s new manufacturing strategy for the Cybercab aims for large-scale production in 2026.
Despite challenges like tariffs and uncertain fiscal policies, Tesla is focusing on capital spending and research and development. The company maintains a strong balance sheet.
The report presents a mixed bag for traders, with revenue and EPS misses offset by a surprise in gross margin. The positive after-hours market reaction suggests that expectations for more affordable models are outweighing the disappointing free cash flow figures. This creates a volatile environment for the weeks ahead.
This uncertainty has impacted the options market, where we see high implied volatility. The current 30-day implied volatility for Tesla stock is around 58%, indicating that the market expects significant price movements, leading to expensive options contracts. This high entry cost must be considered in any trading strategy.
For traders confident in the future of the Cybercab and new vehicles, selling premium could be a smart strategy. A bull put spread allows collectors to benefit from time decay and the high volatility. This defined-risk approach profits if the stock stays above a set strike price until expiration.
On the other hand, those worried about economic pressures and increasing competition from companies like BYD should look at a bear call spread. This strategy also collects a good premium because of high volatility, allowing traders to profit from a potential decrease in enthusiasm after the earnings or a drop in the share price.
Historically, Tesla’s stock has moved by double-digit percentages in the weeks following earnings. Traders who anticipate a large price change but are uncertain about the direction may consider a long strangle. However, they must believe that the stock will move enough to cover the high premium paid for both the call and put options.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will discuss economic policies and publish its quarterly Bulletin today.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is in the spotlight today with the release of its quarterly ‘Bulletin’. This document includes articles about the economy, policy, and other important topics.
A significant event is RBA Governor Bullock’s speech on “The RBA’s Dual Mandate – Inflation and Employment” at the Anika Foundation in Sydney. This is scheduled for 0305 GMT on Thursday, July 24, or 2305 US Eastern time on Wednesday, July 23.
Expecting a Rate Cut
The RBA’s next meeting is on August 11-12, and a 25 basis points rate cut is widely expected. We think Bullock’s speech is the most important event before the policy meeting in August. Financial markets are leaning towards a rate cut, so her comments on inflation and employment will be closely analyzed for clues. Traders should prepare for possible market fluctuations, as her words will shape future expectations. If she highlights recent weaknesses in the labor market, it will strengthen the case for lowering rates. Australia’s unemployment rate has recently risen to 4.1%, giving her clear grounds to suggest a possible rate cut. This could lower yields on short-term government bonds and reinforce expectations for August. On the other hand, if she draws attention to persistent price pressures, it could catch traders off guard. Australia’s latest quarterly CPI inflation reading was 3.6%, which is above the RBA’s target range of 2-3%. If her tone leans towards being hawkish and emphasizes these pressures, it could lead to a swift retreat from rate-cut positions.Market Expectations and Strategies
Current market data shows that traders have priced in about a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in August. This indicates that while the market is generally leaning towards a dovish outlook, there is still some uncertainty, allowing for a potential major shift. Bullock’s speech could either push this probability to 100% or send it back below 50%. In the past, the market has been caught off guard by the central bank, especially in late 2023 when anticipated rate cuts didn’t materialize due to stubborn inflation. This serves as a reminder that expected policy changes are not always guaranteed, and we should approach the current consensus with caution. To navigate this uncertainty, we see value in using options to trade potential price swings. Buying straddles on the Australian dollar or short-term interest rate futures would allow traders to benefit from significant market moves, regardless of the direction. This strategy effectively trades on the outcome of the speech itself. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.US-Japan trade agreement provides temporary relief while USD/CAD rises slightly above 1.3600
USD/CAD is trading slightly higher, just above 1.3600, thanks to a recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, which has provided short-term support for the US Dollar. However, the overall outlook is still uncertain due to political issues with the Federal Reserve and rising trade tensions.
The Canadian Dollar could be volatile as the August 1 deadline for US tariffs approaches. US officials have confirmed that this deadline will not be extended, meaning a 35% tariff will be imposed on Canadian goods that are not covered under the USMCA. Additional tariffs include 50% on steel and aluminum, 25% on auto parts, and 10% on energy exports.
Canadian Dollar Resilience
The Canadian Dollar is demonstrating resilience due to strong domestic factors and a weakening US Dollar. Technically, USD/CAD is trading below important levels, indicating a possible shift in market sentiment. Immediate support is at 1.3540, with resistance at 1.3661 and 1.3714. Tariffs are taxes on imported goods that help domestic manufacturers by giving them a price edge. They also generate government income, similar to taxes collected post-purchase, but are paid upfront when goods enter the country. Economists have mixed views on tariffs; some see them as protective, while others think they could be harmful. Donald Trump intends to use tariffs to boost the US economy. In 2024, the US imported 42% of its goods from Mexico, China, and Canada, with Mexico being the largest exporter at $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Trump’s aim with tariff revenue is to lower personal income taxes. With the August 1 deadline for new tariffs approaching, we expect significant volatility in USD/CAD. This environment presents opportunities for strategies that benefit from price changes rather than just direction. Historically, during the 2018 trade disputes, USD/CAD rallied towards 1.3600, indicating a tendency for a weaker Canadian Dollar if tariffs are confirmed.Canada’s Economic Picture
We should also consider Canada’s economic situation. According to Statistics Canada, inflation dropped to 2.9% in May 2024. The Bank of Canada has started a rate cut cycle, which may reduce some currency strength. Thus, any positive domestic news could be overshadowed by the threat of hefty import duties. Traders might want to buy options to navigate this expected volatility while minimizing risk. Purchasing call options on USD/CAD could be a direct bet on tariffs, likely pushing the pair above resistance levels like 1.3714. Increasing implied volatility in the options market suggests that many are already preparing for a significant move, so it’s vital to act before options become too expensive. On the other hand, put options can be profitable if a last-minute agreement is made, potentially lowering the pair sharply toward the 1.3540 support level. A straddle strategy—buying both a call and a put—can be effective for traders expecting a big move but uncertain of the actual direction. This approach helps hedge against the unpredictability of political developments related to the former president’s policy announcements. The focus on using tariffs to fund domestic policies is crucial, especially since Canada ranks among the top three US trading partners. Total trade between the two countries exceeded $790 billion in 2023, underscoring the significant economic impact of new trade barriers. We will be closely watching for any signals that could change the timeline, as this situation remains the key catalyst for USD/CAD in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Consumer confidence in the Eurozone exceeds expectations, reported at -14.7 instead of the anticipated -15.
Eurozone consumer confidence improved slightly in July, registering at -14.7, better than the expected -15. This points to a small boost in economic sentiment in the Eurozone.
The AUD/USD pair has risen to 0.6600, marking four consecutive days of growth. This rise is supported by a generally positive trading atmosphere, especially following a trade agreement between the US and Japan.
