Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to provide the most reliable service to our clients, there will be maintenance this weekend.

Maintenance Details:

Please note that the following aspects might be affected during the maintenance:
1. During the maintenance hours, the Client Portal and VT Markets App will be unavailable, including managing trades, Deposit/Withdrawal and all the other functions will be limited.

2. The price quote and trading management will be temporarily disabled during the maintenance. You will not be able to open new positions, close open positions, or make any adjustments to the trades.

3. There might be a gap between the original price and the price after maintenance. The gaps between Pending Orders, Stop Loss, and Take Profit will be filled at the market price once the maintenance is completed. It is suggested that you manage the account properly.

The above data is for reference only. Please refer to the MT4 / MT5 / VT App for the specific maintenance completion and marketing opening time.

Thank you for your patience and understanding about this important initiative.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Gold has dropped 0.6% to $3,368, continuing its downward trend as positive trade news emerges. Earlier, the price rose above $3,400 due to a weaker dollar, but it faced resistance and sellers took over. Attempts to break the $3,430-35 resistance level have failed three times in recent months. This has led to a tight trading range since late May, blocking any potential breakout, despite earlier factors that supported gold this year.

Gold Outlook Amid Trade Uncertainty

Trade uncertainty, which has helped gold, has eased somewhat, but confidence in the dollar is still weak. Other factors like ETF changes and central bank demand are keeping a positive outlook for gold. At the moment, gold is trading between important moving averages, suggesting a more neutral short-term trend. The 200-hour moving average at $3,365 is vital; staying above it keeps buyers hopeful for a rise. If it drops below this level, momentum could turn negative, potentially lowering prices to $3,300. The recent price movements show that not breaking through the key resistance of $2,365 is significant for derivative traders. This indicates that the strong upward momentum has stalled for now. We expect a period of consolidation, creating chances for strategies that gain from sideways movement instead of dramatic breakouts. This marks the third time since April that a rally has faltered in this area, reinforcing it as a strong barrier. The inability to rise suggests prices will likely fluctuate between this high point and support near the 50-day moving average around $2,300. For traders, this sets a clear range to navigate in the upcoming weeks.

Central Bank Demand and Market Trends

Despite the recent weakness, the fundamental case for gold remains strong due to significant demand from central banks. The World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased a record 290 tonnes in the first quarter of 2024. We believe this ongoing support will shield against major sell-offs, with dips likely seen as buying chances by these large players. However, it’s important to note that “fast money” sentiment has been unstable, contributing to some recent selling pressure. Global gold ETFs experienced outflows of 12 tonnes in May, predominantly from North American funds. This helps clarify why prices are struggling to gain momentum to overcome established resistance levels. The U.S. dollar outlook and Federal Reserve policy are major influences on gold prices. Even with the Fed’s recent firm statements, markets are still anticipating a better than 60% chance of a rate cut by September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. We view this expectation of future monetary easing as a long-term boost for prices. For now, we are closely monitoring the 50-day moving average near $2,300 as a crucial near-term level. A sustained drop below this point would shift the outlook to bearish and could pave the way toward the $2,280 support zone. As long as prices stay above this level, we see the market as neutral, providing buyers time to prepare for another attempt at higher prices. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Eurozone’s services PMI for July was 51.2, which is slightly higher than the expected 50.7 and up from last month’s 50.5. The manufacturing PMI was 49.8, compared to the forecast of 49.7. The composite PMI came in at 51.0, exceeding the anticipated 50.8. Overall, business activity hit an 11-month high, mainly due to improvements in the services sector. New orders are stabilizing, aiding the recovery, while input cost inflation is easing. Despite this progress, companies kept their output prices steady from June.

Gradual Recovery Observed

The Eurozone economy is gradually recovering. The decline in the manufacturing sector may be ending, while growth in the services sector improved slightly in July. The GDP Nowcast suggests strong growth for the third quarter, although more data is needed for a full picture. Germany is cautiously expanding its manufacturing output, balancing out France’s industrial struggles. Political uncertainties in Paris affect France’s outlook, which is marked by planned budget cuts and tension. Germany expects modest growth, thanks to government spending and investment, while France might contract slightly due to its political climate. The trend of reducing inflation in services continues, influenced by outside factors. The unexpectedly strong PMI data indicates that the Eurozone’s economy is starting to recover. Consequently, we are cautiously optimistic and see this as a chance to invest more in broad European indices, like the Euro Stoxx 50, using call options or bull call spreads. The decline in input cost inflation should help corporate profit margins.

Divergence Between Economies

The differences between Germany and France’s economies present a key trading opportunity in the coming weeks. German factory orders rose by 0.5% month-over-month, while French consumer confidence dropped to a six-month low of 89. This reinforces our preference for long positions in the German DAX index versus short positions in the French CAC 40. Political uncertainty in Paris, particularly regarding Mr. Bayrou, presents a risk not yet fully reflected in the European market. Implied volatility on CAC 40 options has increased to 18%, while the VSTOXX index for the Euro Stoxx 50 is lower at 14%. This creates a chance to buy volatility on French assets through straddles to protect against or speculate on significant market movements. The widening gap in economic performance echoes the 2012-2014 period, when long Germany/short France trades were quite profitable. History shows that once such divergences appear, often fueled by economic and political factors, they can last for several quarters. We are preparing for a similar trend. For the European Central Bank, this data paints a more balanced picture, lessening the urgency for further rate cuts. Money markets currently assign a 40% chance for another cut by September, and these stronger growth numbers might lower that probability. So, we advise caution in anticipating a sharp decline in short-term interest rates. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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EU member states are backing potential counter-tariffs worth €93 billion on US goods, say EU diplomats. This action serves as a backup if talks fail by the August 1 deadline. The counter-tariffs are compiled into a single list and can be activated if the US raises its tariffs on the EU. This would occur if both sides do not reach an agreement by the deadline.

Impact On Derivative Markets

We expect a significant increase in implied volatility in derivative markets in the coming weeks. The August 1 deadline serves as a trigger, meaning options prices on major indices will likely rise as uncertainty grows. Traders should prepare for greater market fluctuations, rather than expecting calm. The large trade relationship, which was about $1.2 trillion in 2023, means any tariffs will significantly impact stock markets. We think derivatives linked to the German DAX and the US S&P 500 will be especially affected, given their many multinational industrial and tech companies. Increased hedging with index futures and options makes sense in this context. The EUR/USD currency pair will be crucial for macro traders. Comments from key negotiators, such as Dombrovskis or Tai, could cause sharp changes in the exchange rate. We predict a rise in the popularity of options that bet on a wider trading range for this currency pair.

Lessons From Past Trade Disputes

Looking back at the trade disputes in 2018-2019 can help us anticipate what may happen. During the rise in May 2019, the VIX volatility index surged from about 13 to over 20 in just weeks. We are preparing for similar spikes in volatility as new updates emerge ahead of the deadline. Sectors like automotive and agriculture will face the biggest risks, and we’re closely watching derivatives related to them. Since the US exported over $34 billion in agricultural products to the EU last year, futures contracts on commodities like soybeans may see increased activity and price fluctuations. This environment offers opportunities for traders familiar with these physical markets. In this situation, options strategies that profit from price changes in either direction, such as long straddles, can be valuable. Buying put options on indices with heavy export exposure can effectively hedge against negative outcomes from negotiations. The key is to have a strategy ready before volatility rises sharply. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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France’s business confidence stayed steady in July 2025, according to INSEE. The overall index remained at 96, the same as the month before. The manufacturing confidence index also held at 96, although its previous number was revised from 96 to 97. Likewise, the services confidence index remained stable at 96. However, the employment indicator dropped. It went down to 96.7 in July from 98.3 in June, showing lower job expectations.

Economic Outlook

Recent data from France suggests a stagnant economy, leading traders to take a cautious or pessimistic view. Now might be a good time to consider buying protective puts on the CAC 40 index. This could safeguard against a possible downturn caused by ongoing weak sentiment. The drop in the employment indicator raises concerns, indicating that companies are reducing hiring. This trend often signals a slowdown, similar to how France’s manufacturing PMI has been in the contraction range for most of the past year, recently hitting a low of 46.4. Therefore, we would take a cautious approach to French industrial and cyclical stocks in our portfolios.

Investment Strategies

While confidence remains steady at a low point, we do not anticipate a sudden market crash. Instead, we expect a slow decline or trading within a range. A bear call spread on the main index could be a useful way to profit from these sideways-to-negative price movements. This approach limits risk while taking advantage of the lack of upward momentum. Weak data from the Eurozone’s second-largest economy will likely put pressure on the single currency. Historically, during times of reduced business confidence in France and Germany, like the 2019 slowdown, the EUR/USD exchange rate faced significant downward pressure. We see an opportunity to short the Euro or buy puts on currency futures, especially if this affects the European Central Bank’s stance, leading to a more dovish approach. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Japan’s trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, expressed that the trade agreement serves Japan’s interests. However, there have been no talks with U.S. officials to implement the deal. No updates have been released about a quarterly review of this agreement. It appears to have been made through an executive decision, meaning it can be enforced without needing approval from parliament.

Concessions In Agriculture

Concessions in agriculture might lead to increased pressure on local policymakers. The details of the agreement are still not clearly defined. Akazawa also noted that there is no current plan to sign a legally binding agreement, indicating that specifics about the trade deal are still uncertain. We view the negotiator’s uncertain stance as a sign of potential instability for the yen. His comments suggest key details remain unresolved, which can lead to rumors and news that might shift the market. This uncertainty itself could create trading opportunities.

Opportunity In Currency Options

While long-term bets on USD/JPY may be risky, this uncertainty also creates opportunities in options trading. The one-month implied volatility for the pair has already spiked above 10% this year due to policy uncertainty, and we anticipate this trend will continue. Instead of taking a strong directional stance, we suggest focusing on trading volatility. There is also the risk of domestic political pressure regarding agricultural concessions, particularly from influential figures. If the executive-level deal begins to falter due to internal pushback, it could lead to a quick rise in the yen’s value. This political aspect must be considered, as it may result in sharp, short-term price changes. Additionally, we need to monitor the Nikkei 225, which has historically moved in line with the currency’s value. A weaker yen usually benefits exporters, raising the index—a relationship that has been steady over the years. Thus, the outcome of this deal could be a key factor in Japanese equities moving forward. The current trade uncertainty complicates the Bank of Japan’s efforts to control its currency, especially after its record ¥9.79 trillion intervention earlier this year. Their ability to stabilize the yen is now limited by unpredictable political news along with interest rate differences. Traders should be ready for interventions that might be less predictable or might not have lasting effects. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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European stock markets are set to open strongly, fueled by hopes of a US-EU trade agreement. Recent positive news and a good outlook are boosting investor confidence. Technology stocks are gaining strength, partly due to Alphabet’s excellent earnings report. This upbeat trend helps balance out Tesla’s weaker results, contributing to the overall positive market mood.

US Market Futures Update

In the US, S&P 500 futures are up by 0.1% and Nasdaq futures have increased by 0.3%. These gains reflect a lively market atmosphere and ongoing interest in tech growth. We see the current optimism as a chance to invest for further market gains. Buying near-term call options on major indices like the S&P 500 seems wise. This strategy aims to benefit from the positive feelings around potential trade agreements and strong company earnings. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is currently around 14, below its historical average of 20. This low implied volatility means options are relatively cheap, offering a great entry point for new long positions. We believe this is the perfect time to buy calls before any rise in uncertainty.

Technology Sector Positioning

Given the strong performance, we are focusing on the technology sector. Consider call options on the Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 and has gained over 35% this year. This strategy capitalizes on momentum despite some corporate challenges. However, recent comments from the former president remind us how quickly political statements can change market sentiment. The sharp downturns during the 2018-2019 US-China trade conflict show how a single announcement can create volatility. Thus, buying some low-cost, out-of-the-money puts on weaker industrial sectors provides a cheap way to protect against sudden negative news. For European markets, we are looking at options based on the Euro Stoxx 50 index to benefit from a potential rally. Recent data from the Eurozone shows inflation has dropped to 5.5%, although manufacturing PMI indicates a decline below 45. This calls for a cautious strategy, perhaps using bull call spreads to limit risk while still seizing opportunities for gains. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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German consumer sentiment has declined further as August begins, according to the latest data from GfK. The sentiment index fell to -21.5, below the earlier expectation of -19.2 and lower than the previous reading of -20.3. More households in Germany are opting to save, as indicated by an increase in the saving willingness index, which rose to 16.4 from 13.9. This is the highest level it has reached in nearly a year and a half. The rise in saving reflects concerns about “general uncertainty” and the importance of being prepared amid high food prices and economic difficulties.

Impact On German Equities

The unexpected decline in consumer confidence suggests a potential economic slowdown. Therefore, traders should consider positioning for weakness in German equities. In this climate, buying put options on the DAX index is a smart strategy to protect against or profit from a possible downturn. This new data aligns with the trend of weak industrial production figures that Germany faced in 2024, indicating ongoing economic challenges. With Germany’s economy struggling, we expect the Euro to weaken against the US dollar. This report also challenges any hawkish stance from the European Central Bank, which has been hinting at a data-dependent approach to interest rates since Christine Lagarde’s comments in late 2024. Consequently, traders might want to consider selling EUR/USD futures contracts to bet on a decline in the Euro. The report’s mention of “general uncertainty” suggests that market volatility may rise in the near future. We predict the VSTOXX, which measures Euro Stoxx 50 volatility, will increase from its current low levels around 14. This environment makes long straddles on key German industrial stocks a worthwhile strategy to take advantage of significant price movements, regardless of the direction.

Impact On German Automakers

Households choosing to save rather than spend pose a direct threat to consumer discretionary sectors. German automakers are particularly at risk, as data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) already indicated a 3% decline in new car registrations in the second quarter of 2025. Therefore, buying puts on these automotive companies could be an effective way to trade on this negative consumer sentiment. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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**China-EU Relations** Xi states that China and the EU do not have major conflicts of interest. He encourages the EU to keep trade and investment markets open and to create a business-friendly environment for Chinese firms. He asks the EU to respect China’s key interests and concerns, and he shows China’s readiness to work with the EU on artificial intelligence and climate change. However, despite this diplomatic approach, trade disputes still exist. The statement highlights that the EU has to navigate complex relationships with many allies, not just China. **Economic Reality and Trade Disputes** Xi’s comments reveal a gap between diplomatic language and economic realities. Ongoing trade tensions indicate that European markets will likely face high risks. Derivative traders might want to adopt strategies that take advantage of this uncertainty, such as buying volatility in indices like the Euro Stoxx 50. One current hot topic is the auto industry. The European Commission is set to decide on tariffs for Chinese electric vehicles by July. With the EU’s trade deficit with China for goods reaching €291 billion in 2023, there’s immense pressure to take action. This scenario makes put options on the German DAX index, which is heavily influenced by automakers, a strong hedge against possible Chinese retaliation. These tensions also affect other important European sectors, like luxury goods and green technology. Many luxury brands have reported declining demand from China in the first quarter of 2024, making them especially vulnerable to political issues. Xi’s push for climate cooperation also clashes with the EU’s investigation into Chinese subsidies for wind turbines, adding more uncertainty in that area. This situation mirrors the U.S.-China trade war from 2018-2019, when volatility indices often surged due to political news. We can expect a similar pattern now, where a single negative headline might lead to sudden and sharp market changes. Additionally, this environment may weaken the Euro. The significant trade imbalance, paired with the rising risk of disputes, makes holding onto the Euro less attractive. We advise caution regarding long Euro positions, especially against the dollar, until there is more clarity on trade issues. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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