Austria’s wholesale prices, not seasonally adjusted, were unchanged in February, with a month-on-month reading of 0.7%. The source text provides no further detail on Austria’s broader price drivers. Market focus turned to US data, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics set to release February Nonfarm Payrolls at 13:30 GMT. The update was expected to show job creation slowed or hiring moderated in February.

Dollar Demand Drives Major Pairs

EUR/USD traded below 1.1600 and GBP/USD moved back towards 1.3300 in European trading on Friday. Both were described as pressured by renewed demand for the US Dollar and caution ahead of the US jobs report. Gold traded around $5,100, with price action described as capped by a firmer US Dollar. Silver was reported near $82.80 and copper was linked to an inventory surge. In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP were described as cautious after an approximate 2% pullback the previous day. Bitcoin was above $71,000, Ethereum was at $2,000, and XRP was moving sideways. The text also refers to a widening Middle East conflict and higher oil prices as factors affecting market conditions. It includes general risk warnings and states the content is for information only and not financial advice.

Shifting Themes Into 2026

Looking back to early 2025, we recall the intense focus on every US Nonfarm Payrolls report and the anxiety caused by flaring tensions in the Middle East. The market environment that saw EUR/USD below 1.1600 and Gold at $5,100 was defined by a flight to the safety of the US dollar. Now, in March 2026, the dynamics have shifted, but the underlying themes of inflation and central bank policy remain critical for traders. The fear of an oil shock from the Middle East conflict has subsided, but energy prices continue to influence inflation expectations. We saw OPEC+ extend its voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day through the end of 2025, which has kept a floor under crude prices. This persistent supply discipline means traders should remain wary of upside risks to inflation, potentially using options on energy stocks or ETFs to hedge against sudden price spikes in the coming weeks. The “gradual cuts” from the Federal Reserve that were anticipated in 2025 have proven to be a halting process. After initiating a cautious cutting cycle late last year, the Fed is now on hold as core inflation remains sticky, coming in at a higher-than-expected 2.8% for January 2026. This data suggests the US dollar will retain its strength, making strategies that benefit from a range-bound EUR/USD, perhaps using iron condors or strangles, a sensible approach. Volatility is the new normal, a lesson we learned from the market’s reaction to every piece of data last year. The VIX index, while off its crisis highs, has consistently averaged above 15 throughout late 2025 and early 2026, a notable increase from pre-pandemic levels. This elevated baseline for volatility means buying protection through put options on major indices can be expensive, but it remains a necessary cost for those looking to protect portfolios from unexpected data misses. The environment for precious metals has also evolved from the conditions that held gold at $5,100 and silver near $82.80 last year. With the Fed’s path now clearer, but not yet dovish, gold’s appeal as a simple hedge against uncertainty is complicated by the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Traders might instead look at silver, as its price will also be heavily influenced by industrial demand figures, which have shown weakness in recent global manufacturing PMIs. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold rose on Friday, recovering the prior session’s losses, but it was still set for its first weekly drop in five weeks. Demand for safe-haven assets supported prices, while higher oil prices raised inflation concerns and reduced bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold held gains as the US Dollar stayed weak after modest gains a day earlier. Fed officials kept a cautious stance and have left open the chance of more rate rises if inflation stays above target, while a softer Dollar makes gold cheaper for non-US buyers.

Middle East Conflict Escalation

The Iran–Israel conflict entered its seventh day after Iran fired missiles and drones across the Gulf, hitting an oil refinery in Bahrain. Israel continued airstrikes on Tehran, and the US suspended operations at its embassy in Kuwait. Markets are waiting for US data, including Nonfarm Payrolls, with expectations near 59K for February after 130K in January. Retail Sales are forecast to fall 0.3% month-on-month in January after a flat reading previously. The US is due to introduce a temporary 15% global tariff, replacing a 10% rate, after the Supreme Court struck down most earlier levies. Scott Bessent said the tariff could revert within five months as new trade investigations proceed. Gold traded near $5,110, with resistance at $5,134 and support at $5,080. Further levels cited were $5,480, $5,598, and the 50-day EMA at $4,883, with the 14-day RSI at 53.

Options Positioning And Risk

Given the conflict in the Middle East entering its seventh day back in early 2025, safe-haven demand is clearly driving the price of gold. With the metal trading above $5,100, we should assume that implied volatility in options markets is extremely high. This is similar to what we saw historically with the CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ), which spiked over 35% in a few weeks during the onset of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022. For those looking to profit from a continued rise, buying outright call options is likely too expensive now. We should consider using bull call spreads to target a move toward the upper channel boundary of $5,480. This strategy defines our risk and lowers the entry cost, which is prudent when prices are already so elevated. On the other hand, the risk of a sudden ceasefire or hawkish Federal Reserve commentary remains a significant threat. To protect against a sharp drop, we should consider buying put options with a strike price below the channel support level of $5,080. This acts as insurance for any long positions we currently hold. The underlying strength of gold is supported by fundamental buying that we saw in the years leading up to 2025. Data from the World Gold Council showed that central banks bought a record 1,037 tonnes of gold in 2023, and this aggressive purchasing continued through 2024. This long-term trend provides a solid floor for the price, even if short-term volatility is high. In the immediate weeks ahead, the most critical data point was the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for February 2025. A number coming in significantly higher than the 59K expectation would likely strengthen the US Dollar and put immediate pressure on gold. A miss, however, would have probably been the catalyst to test the all-time highs above $5,500. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng said monetary policy changes will be based on how the economy is performing. He said social financing conditions are currently loose and the central bank will set policy appropriately this year. Pan said the PBoC will flexibly use tools such as interest rates and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts. He also said structural tools will focus on boosting domestic demand and supporting technology innovation, and the bank will curb “involution-style” competition in some industries.

Monetary Policy Outlook

He said China does not intend, and does not need, to use the exchange rate to gain trade competitiveness. He linked a rise in global risk aversion to US and Israeli attacks on Iran, and said currency volatility has limited impact on over 60% of China’s foreign trade. After the comments, the offshore yuan (CNH) weakened slightly, with USD/CNH finding bids after an intraday low of 6.8965. Pan also said the PBoC will enrich its policy toolbox, continue treasury bond buying and selling, and improve policy transmission and transparency. The PBoC is state-owned and not fully autonomous, with the CCP Committee Secretary influencing direction; Pan holds both roles. China has 19 private banks, including WeBank and MYbank. Based on the PBoC’s recent statements, we see a clear signal that the central bank is prepared to ease monetary policy further if economic data disappoints. The emphasis on using tools like interest rate and RRR cuts means we should be positioned for dovish action in the coming weeks. This creates a supportive backdrop for assets that benefit from lower rates. The immediate takeaway is for the Chinese Yuan, which is likely to face downward pressure. Considering that February 2026 data showed producer prices falling for the 17th consecutive month, the PBoC has ample room to act, reinforcing the case for a weaker currency. We should therefore consider strategies that profit from a rising USD/CNH, such as buying call options on the pair ahead of key data releases.

Trading Implications

For interest rate derivatives, the message is to anticipate lower yields. Looking back, we saw the PBoC deliver two separate RRR cuts in 2025 to support the struggling property market and broader economy, setting a clear precedent. Traders should look at positioning in government bond futures to capitalize on a potential continuation of this easing cycle. This dovish stance provides a potential floor for Chinese equities, which could see limited downside from here. The central bank’s readiness to support the economy should dampen volatility, making it attractive to sell out-of-the-money puts on indices like the FTSE China A50. The focus on expanding domestic demand and tech innovation could also benefit specific sectors. While the PBoC stated it will not use the exchange rate for trade competitiveness, a policy-driven, gradual depreciation is still highly likely. We should not expect a sudden, sharp devaluation, but rather a managed slide in the Yuan. This means any short CNH positions should be managed carefully, as the central bank will likely step in to prevent a disorderly decline. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Markets are set for the US February employment report on Friday, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), the Unemployment Rate and wage inflation, while monitoring updates tied to the Middle East crisis. The USD Index ended Thursday higher on safe-haven demand and held near 99.00 early Friday, with US stock index futures marginally up. After a Senate vote on Wednesday, the US House rejected a measure on Thursday that would limit President Donald Trump’s ability to take further military action against Iran. Trump said Iranian officials reached out to seek an agreement to end the war, while Iran’s foreign minister said Iran has not asked for a ceasefire and has rejected negotiations with the US.

Oil Prices Extend Rally

WTI oil rose for a fifth straight day, last trading above $80.50 and up more than 2% on the day. WTI is up nearly 20% on the week, and the US administration is weighing options to address higher oil and petrol prices. February NFP is forecast at 59K after 130K in January, with unemployment seen steady at 4.3%. Gold fell more than 1% on Thursday but rebounded above $5,100; EUR/USD held just over 1.1600 ahead of revised eurozone Q4 Employment Change and GDP. Japan said it is ready to respond to economic effects from the Iran conflict and has not fully exited deflation, while the BoJ reiterated gradual policy adjustment. USD/JPY held above 157.50, and GBP/USD traded above 1.3350 in the lower half of its weekly range. Looking back to this time in 2025, we saw crude oil prices surging past $80 a barrel amid the conflict in Iran, a move that created massive volatility. Today, with West Texas Intermediate crude hovering around $78, tensions in the Middle East remain a key factor, and recent data from the EIA shows US crude inventories have drawn down for three consecutive weeks, suggesting tight supply. Derivative traders should consider call options on oil futures as any renewed escalation could easily send prices back toward last year’s highs.

Dollar And Gold Positioning

The US Dollar was finding strength as a safe haven then, with the DXY index at 99.00. A year later, persistent inflation, with the last CPI report for January 2026 coming in at a sticky 3.2%, has kept the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. This policy divergence with other central banks supports continued dollar strength, making long positions in USD futures or call options on the UUP ETF attractive strategies. Gold’s incredible price of over $5,100 an ounce last year underscored its status as the ultimate crisis hedge, even against a strong dollar. In early 2026, gold has consolidated near $5,050, supported by continued central bank buying, a trend confirmed by World Gold Council data showing record purchases through the second half of 2025. This creates a floor under the price, suggesting selling out-of-the-money puts could be a way to collect premium while waiting for the next geopolitical flare-up. In March 2025, the market was bracing for a weak jobs report, which added to the uncertainty. Now in 2026, the ongoing high energy prices and restrictive interest rates are weighing on corporate outlooks, a fact reflected in the cautious guidance issued during the last earnings season. We believe maintaining long volatility positions through VIX futures or buying protective puts on broad market indices like the SPX is a prudent hedge for the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Cresco Labs Inc. reported a Q4 adjusted loss of $0.02 per share for the quarter ended December 2025, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate. A year earlier, it posted an adjusted loss of $0.01 per share. The report showed an earnings surprise of +14.16%. In the prior quarter, the expected loss was $0.03 per share, but the company reported a loss of $0.05, a surprise of -66.67%. Quarterly revenue was $161.55 million, beating the consensus estimate by 0.26%. This compared with $175.91 million a year ago, and the company has beaten revenue estimates three times in the past four quarters. Shares are down about 20.7% year to date, versus a 0.4% gain for the S&P 500. The stock holds a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), and the Medical – Products industry is in the bottom 45% of 250+ Zacks industries. The current consensus calls for EPS of -$0.03 on $162 million in revenue next quarter, and EPS of -$0.09 on $670.41 million for the fiscal year. Myomo, Inc. is due to report on March 9, with forecasts of a $0.09 loss per share (year-over-year change of -800%) and revenue of $10.15 million, down 15.9%. Given the Q4 2025 results, we see a company that managed to beat revenue expectations but is still struggling with profitability and year-over-year growth. The stock’s 20.7% drop since the start of the year shows a strong bearish sentiment from the market. This performance is consistent with the broader cannabis sector, as the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) also saw a decline of roughly 18% in 2025 due to persistent price compression in key states and delays in federal reform. The bearish trend and the stock’s official “Sell” rating suggest that buying puts or establishing bear call spreads could be a primary strategy. This allows traders to profit from further downside or a sideways drift. Looking back at 2025, we recall similar earnings reports for cannabis operators often led to a post-announcement stock decline, even when top-line numbers were met, as investors focused on the lack of profitability. However, implied volatility is a key factor to watch in the coming days. With the earnings uncertainty now passed, we expect implied volatility to decrease, making it more expensive to hold long options. Traders could consider selling premium, such as cash-secured puts at a lower strike price, to bet that the worst of the sell-off is over without needing a significant rally. The major wild card remains federal regulatory news, specifically the DEA’s rescheduling process which saw numerous delays throughout 2025. Any unexpected positive announcement on this front could cause a sharp rally, punishing outright bearish positions. Therefore, using defined-risk spreads is a more cautious approach than buying naked puts or shorting the stock.

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Danske Bank said the key US release is the February jobs report, used to gauge the dollar’s direction. It expects Nonfarm Payrolls to slow to 70k from 130k in January, with unemployment unchanged at 4.3%. It reported that high-frequency indicators have pointed to firmer labour conditions into February, including jobless claims, ADP’s weekly private sector estimate, and Indeed Hiring Lab’s daily job postings. Weekly initial claims were 213k for the week ending 28 February.

High Frequency Labor Signals

Continuing claims edged up slightly. The February Challenger report showed layoff announcements fell to 48.3k from January’s 108k, seasonally adjusted, while hiring announcements stayed subdued. Flash Q4 productivity growth slowed to 2.8% q/q at an annualised rate, from 5.2% in Q3, alongside a weaker GDP reading. Unit labour cost growth rose to 2.8% q/q annualised, from -1.8% in Q3. It noted that a stronger jobs report could add pressure on US bond yields and swap rates. It also referenced rises in the VIX index, the Move index, and credit spreads such as ITRAX, with only modest movement in the Schatz ASW-spread. Looking back to this time in 2025, we recall the consensus was for a slowdown in the US labor market, with forecasts for the February jobs report around 70k. The actual number surprised everyone by coming in significantly stronger, which added upward pressure to bond yields for much of that year. This history provides a critical backdrop for interpreting the current market setup.

Derivative Positioning For Volatility

Now, the February 2026 jobs report just showed a robust headline gain of 275,000, but the unemployment rate also unexpectedly ticked up to 3.9%. This mixed signal, with strong hiring but rising unemployment, creates uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s next move. Derivative traders should be positioned for the volatility this data conflict will likely create in the coming weeks. Unlike early 2025, when a strong report led to a straightforward rise in yields, the current situation is more complex. The MOVE index, a measure of bond market volatility, is elevated near 105, showing traders are already pricing in uncertainty around interest rate direction. This suggests strategies that profit from a large move in either direction, such as buying straddles on Treasury futures, could be effective. In the equity markets, we are not seeing the same caution that was building a year ago. The VIX index is currently low, trading around a complacent level of 14, which makes protective put options on indices like the S&P 500 relatively cheap. Given the conflicting signals from the labor market, buying this inexpensive insurance against a potential downturn is a prudent move. We are also watching labor cost pressures, which have proven stickier than anticipated through 2025. Recent data shows average hourly earnings are still growing at a pace inconsistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation goal. This supports derivative positions that benefit from a “higher for longer” interest rate environment, such as paying fixed in interest rate swaps. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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ECB policymaker Olaf Sleijpen said monetary policy is in a good place and that the central bank can tolerate a small inflation overshoot. He said this tolerance would be similar to how the ECB can tolerate inflation undershooting its aim. Sleijpen said he has not dramatically changed his view on the policy outlook. He said lessons were learnt from 2021/22, but that comparisons with the current situation are not entirely valid.

Policy Tolerance For Inflation Overshoot

He also said the Dutch central bank is comfortable holding gold reserves at the US Federal Reserve. He said he is confident in the Fed’s swap lines. Markets showed little immediate response to the comments. At the time of reporting, EUR/USD was almost flat at around 1.1600. Recent remarks suggest a willingness to let inflation run slightly above the 2% target without immediate action. This is significant for us, especially with the latest Eurostat data showing headline inflation ticking up to 2.3% in February 2026. This reinforces the idea that the European Central bank will not be rushed into a hawkish policy turn. We are seeing this dovish stance in the context of a fragile economic recovery. Looking back, we saw that GDP growth in the final quarter of 2025 was a very weak 0.1%, and recent business surveys suggest manufacturing activity remains subdued. This contrasts sharply with the high-growth, high-inflation environment of 2021/22, supporting the view that the current situation is different and warrants patience.

Trading Implications For Rates Fx And Volatility

For interest rate traders, this suggests that the ECB’s deposit facility rate, which we’ve seen held steady at 3.5% for months, is likely the peak for this cycle. Derivative markets should now price in a lower probability of any further rate hikes in 2026. This may increase the appeal of positions that benefit from stable or falling short-term rates in the second half of the year. This policy divergence could weigh on the Euro, particularly against the dollar, if the Federal Reserve maintains a less accommodative stance. However, the initial flat reaction in EUR/USD around 1.1600 suggests the market is not expecting dramatic moves. This points toward opportunities in selling volatility, as the “we are in a good place” comment implies a period of stability. Given this backdrop, selling out-of-the-money put options on European stock indices like the Euro Stoxx 50 could be an effective strategy. The VSTOXX volatility index has recently fallen to a 12-month low near 14, making option premiums less expensive but still attractive for sellers who expect stability. This approach benefits from both the supportive monetary policy and the current low market volatility. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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EUR/USD stayed in a tight range around 1.1600 in European trading on Friday, ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release for February at 13:30 GMT. The US Dollar Index traded near 99.00 and remained close to a three-month high of 99.68 set on Tuesday. Markets expected 59K new US jobs, down from 130K in January. The Unemployment Rate was forecast at 4.3%, while Average Hourly Earnings were seen unchanged at 3.7% year-on-year.

Shift In Rate Expectations

Rate expectations shifted after the ADP Employment Change report showed higher-than-expected hiring in February. In the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed keeping rates steady in July rose to 47.4% from 33.4% a week earlier. In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank was expected to keep rates steady for longer despite the war in the Middle East. ECB President Christine Lagarde said policy was “not on a preset course” and that the bank was monitoring the war’s effects. NFP measures monthly US employment changes excluding farming. It can affect Fed policy, the US Dollar, gold prices, and market expectations across other parts of the jobs report. Looking back to early 2025, we saw the EUR/USD pair hovering around 1.1600 as the market braced for key Nonfarm Payrolls data. At that time, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July were diminishing due to a resilient labor market. This dynamic set the stage for a stronger dollar over the subsequent year.

Inflation And Policy Outlook

Fast forward to today, March 6, 2026, the situation has evolved significantly, with the pair now trading closer to 1.0750. Persistent inflation throughout 2025 prevented both the Fed and the European Central Bank from easing policy as much as the market had initially anticipated. We are now contending with a global economic environment where price pressures remain a primary concern. Recent statistics reinforce this cautious outlook, with the US Consumer Price Index for January 2026 showing a year-over-year increase of 3.3%, slightly above forecasts. In the Eurozone, Eurostat’s flash estimate for February showed inflation holding steady at 2.8%, underscoring the ECB’s challenge. This stubbornness is forcing traders to rethink the path of monetary policy for the remainder of the year. As a result, we’ve seen a dramatic repricing in rate expectations, with the CME FedWatch Tool now indicating only a 25% probability of a Fed rate cut by its May meeting. This is a considerable drop from the 60% chance priced in at the start of the year. Derivative traders should therefore position for a scenario where interest rates remain higher for longer. For the coming weeks, the focus is once again on the February jobs report, with economists forecasting a payroll addition of around 190,000. A stronger-than-expected number would likely push the EUR/USD lower, making short-term put options a viable hedge against a break below the 1.0700 level. A surprisingly weak report, however, could fuel speculation of an earlier Fed pivot and benefit those holding call options. Given the uncertainty, implied volatility on near-term EUR/USD options has been rising, signaling that the market anticipates a significant price move. Traders who are directionally neutral but expect a breakout could consider using strategies like a long straddle. This approach would be profitable if the jobs data triggers a sharp move in either direction, breaking the pair out of its current range. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Rabobank’s RaboResearch examines how the Middle East conflict, and higher oil and European gas prices, may affect the Eurozone economy. Its updated baseline puts inflation in 2026 about 0.5 percentage points higher and growth 0.1 percentage points lower than its pre-conflict projections. It forecasts Eurozone HICP inflation averaging 2.4% in 2026, then easing to 1.9% in 2027. The report states that each escalation scenario cuts growth by a further 0.1 percentage points.

Energy Shock And Inflation Outlook

In the most disruptive scenario, where critical energy infrastructure is out of operation for an extended period, inflation rises to over 5%. It also peaks above 6% in late 2026. Only Scenario 3, described as the destruction of critical energy infrastructure, shows economic growth falling by 0.7 percentage points. Across the four largest member states, the projections indicate Germany and Italy are hit more than France and Spain. The article notes it was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. We are adjusting our view for the Eurozone, as the ongoing energy shock from the Middle East reshapes the economic landscape. With Brent crude recently touching $95 and TTF gas futures trading over €45/MWh, our models now point to average inflation of 2.4% for 2026. This reflects how strongly geopolitical events are influencing domestic prices.

Growth Risks And Market Implications

The latest flash estimate from Eurostat showing February’s HICP inflation at 2.7% confirms this upward trend, moving further from the ECB’s 2% target. Consequently, interest rate markets are rapidly pricing out any remaining expectations for a rate cut this year. This situation is reminiscent of the tough policy choices we saw central banks face back in 2022. At the same time, economic activity is weakening, with our growth baseline for 2026 now lowered by 0.1 percentage points. This is supported by the latest German Ifo Business Climate Index, which fell unexpectedly last week, signaling a contraction in manufacturing sentiment. This combination of rising prices and slowing growth points towards a difficult period ahead. We must now consider the significant tail risk of a more disruptive scenario involving damage to critical energy infrastructure. In such a case, inflation could surge above 5%, a level that would almost certainly trigger a recession as economic growth could fall by as much as 0.7 percentage points. This potential for extreme volatility means options protecting against sharp market moves are becoming more attractive. Looking at the four largest economies, we project that Germany and Italy will bear the brunt of this energy shock more than France and Spain. Their higher industrial reliance on energy imports makes them particularly vulnerable, a pattern we also observed during the energy crisis that began in 2022. This divergence suggests opportunities in relative value trades, betting on German underperformance against French assets. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Brent oil eased to about US$85 per barrel as the US administration reviewed policy tools to manage higher oil and petrol prices linked to the war in Iran. Markets in Asia and globally remained cautious about weekend gap risks. Possible measures include releasing crude from the US emergency oil reserve, potentially alongside other countries, to increase the effect. Other options mentioned were waiving fuel-blending rules and direct intervention in oil futures markets.

Policy Options Under Review

These discussions follow earlier plans for insurance guarantees and naval escorts to support safe passage for oil tankers and other vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The US Treasury announced waivers allowing India to buy Russian oil for 30 days, running until 4 April 2026. The overall impact on global oil markets, including Asia, was described as uncertain. The article was produced using an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. We are seeing Brent oil prices ease to around $85 a barrel as the US administration signals it might use several policy tools to manage fuel costs during the Iran conflict. This government pressure is creating significant uncertainty, which traders must now factor into their strategies. The market is nervous about potential sudden moves, especially over weekends.

Market Volatility And Positioning

The options being discussed range from releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to waiving fuel-blending rules and even directly intervening in the futures market. After seeing national average gasoline prices tick up to $4.15 last week, the political will to act is clearly growing. This makes any long positions feel particularly risky right now. This threat of intervention has pushed the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) up nearly 15% in two weeks, making options contracts more expensive. We all remember the large-scale SPR releases during the 2025 supply crunch, which temporarily capped prices but did little to solve underlying issues. With the SPR currently holding a historically low 375 million barrels, another large release would be a powerful but perhaps limited tool. Adding another layer, the US Treasury has given India a temporary waiver to purchase Russian oil until April 4th. This suggests the administration is trying to balance multiple pressures by ensuring global supply is not overly constricted. This pragmatic move further dampens the bullish sentiment that would normally dominate during a major conflict in the Middle East. Given these conflicting signals, we believe caution is the best approach for the coming weeks. The clear bearish risk from a policy announcement is fighting the bullish risk from geopolitical escalation. This environment makes it difficult to hold directional bets, suggesting strategies that profit from high volatility or hedge against a sharp downturn could be more prudent. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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