NVIDIA’s stock jumped on July 15th, rising about 4% after it renewed sales of its H20 AI chips to China. This increase came as the market reassessed NVIDIA’s revenue potential, following reassurances from the U.S. government that eased previous uncertainties. On July 14th, NVIDIA’s stock approached important resistance levels, causing some traders to expect a downturn. However, the positive news on July 15th shifted this expectation. The stock’s price rose, surprising bearish traders and supporting a bullish trend, backed by a strong positive delta of +41 million.

Institutional Buying in Mid July

In mid-July, there was significant institutional buying, peaking on July 15th, with a trading volume of 189 million shares and aggressive buying activity. This was supported by a positive Delta, showing that buyers were in control. While the outlook remains bullish, traders should exercise moderate caution regarding profit-taking. Even though NVIDIA appears strong, the buying momentum has slowed in recent sessions (July 16–18). Decreasing trading volume and lower Delta readings indicate a possible consolidation period ahead. Our proprietary AI analysis gives a +5 bullish score, suggesting caution while allowing for mild profit-taking. Key price levels to watch include an anchored VWAP at $170.44 and breakout support at $170. Holding above these levels will support the bullish sentiment. However, falling below these could lead to a drop to $166. While the broader market shows some cooling, NVIDIA remains strong, so careful analysis is vital rather than quick selling. Traders should use smart analytic tools for informed trading decisions, recognizing that no single method is foolproof. A solid analysis of technical patterns and fundamental events will help guide market actions.

Opportunities for Derivative Traders

Our analysis indicates that the sustained bullish sentiment, tempered with caution, offers specific chances for derivative traders. The slowing buying momentum suggests that strategies like call debit spreads could be beneficial. This strategy allows participation in potential upside from resumed sales in China while limiting maximum risk, which is wise given the overall cooling in the tech sector. Current options data supports this balanced strategy, as the put-to-call ratio for the stock remains low, meaning more traders expect a rise rather than a fall. However, since the spike on July 15th, implied volatility has decreased, making it appealing to sell premium. This approach aligns with disciplined risk management principles. It might involve selling covered calls against existing stock positions to generate income during potential consolidation. We see the critical support level around $170 as a strategic point for options trades. Selling cash-secured puts just below this level allows you to collect premiums while the stock holds steady. A confirmed break below this price, especially with increasing negative delta, would be a signal to consider buying protective puts for hedging long positions. The market’s response to other high-performing stocks reminds us that positive news doesn’t always lead to continued rallies. Historically, after sharp increases, NVIDIA’s stock often moves sideways for a while before its next rise, a trend noted in late 2023. This range-bound environment would be ideal for time decay strategies, like iron condors, should a clear trading channel form. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The dollar has recently bounced back, partly due to new threats of tariffs from Trump. These threats come ahead of the expected tariffs on August 1, which have not yet impacted US inflation. Still, higher tariffs in the future could complicate how we interpret inflation data. In the last two weeks, the dollar has strengthened, supported by a short squeeze. This situation might have improved further if Trump hadn’t put pressure on the Federal Reserve, alongside the dovish views from Waller and Bowman that affected discussions about potential rate cuts.

Euro US Dollar Pair Reflects This Trend

The EUR/USD pair shows the dollar’s strength, as its main hourly moving averages remain stable. This indicates that dollar buyers are staying strong amid concerns about tariffs. Without Trump’s influence and the dovish outlook, the dollar might have risen more sharply, and conversations about a September rate cut could have been less significant. Even though the dollar has recently gained ground, market sentiment is still shaky. Any shifts in the views of Fed policymakers could lead to changes. The ongoing short squeeze isn’t necessarily a trend reversal; it’s crucial to watch market charts while keeping an eye on tariff developments before the August 1 deadline. The stock market is performing well, hinting that currency and bond markets might follow suit. We think the recent strength of the dollar is mainly due to a short squeeze, supported by recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Speculators had held a large net short position against the dollar for months, setting the stage for this rally as traders scramble to cover their bearish positions. For now, opposing the dollar’s upward trend is a risky bet. Trump’s tariff threats before the August 1 deadline are the key focus right now. In the past, during the trade disputes of 2018-2019, the Dollar Index (DXY) climbed as uncertainty made it a safe haven. With the one-month implied volatility for major currencies still low, buying options for sudden market moves could be a smart strategy.

The Federal Reserve’s Influence on the Market

However, a strong opposing force is the Federal Reserve’s policy. The dovish remarks from officials like Mr. Waller and Ms. Bowman have strengthened market expectations for easing, with futures markets indicating a high chance of a rate cut by September. This pressure from the central bank limits how much the dollar can rise. With this tug-of-war, we’re using technical analysis to inform our short-term trades. The Dollar Index hitting resistance suggests we’re seeing a corrective bounce rather than a new bull market. This makes strategies like selling call options or setting up bear call spreads above key resistance levels appealing to earn premiums while managing our risk. We also need to pay attention to the significant divergence with equities, which are telling a different economic story. The stock market’s rise to new highs reflects a “risk-on” mood, typically unfriendly to the dollar. This disconnect suggests that either the currency market will need to adjust by selling off the dollar, or the stock market could be due for a correction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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EUR/USD increased by over 0.26% as the US Dollar weakened following dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who hinted at a possible rate cut in July. However, better Consumer Sentiment in the US limited the Euro’s rise, with the trading rate at 1.1626. Waller’s remarks boosted optimism on Wall Street, but Chicago Fed President Ausetan Goolsbee warned about inflation concerns based on recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports. Notably, the University of Michigan’s survey indicated improved consumer sentiment in July, suggesting a reduction in inflation expectations.

European Economic Activities

The European Central Bank (ECB) and various EU policymakers have differing views on monetary policy; some favor a pause, while others support easing measures. Recent US data showed a mixed inflation outlook, with CPI near 3% and easing Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers, despite strong Retail Sales influenced by tariffs. Next week, key European economic events will include Consumer Confidence, Flash PMIs for July, and the ECB’s monetary policy decision. In the US, housing data, S&P Global Flash PMIs, Initial Jobless Claims, and Durable Goods Orders will be released. EUR/USD is moving sideways, trending slightly upward. If it breaks above 1.1650, we may see additional gains. Conversely, if it drops below 1.1600, traders should watch for support levels around 1.1550 and lower. The market is facing mixed signals, providing opportunities for derivative traders. Waller’s dovish tone about a potential rate cut is being tested against actual economic performance. The core question is whether the Federal Reserve will follow through on its guidance or wait for more data.

Impact Of Recent Data Releases

To strengthen this perspective, the recent Consumer Price Index for May was recorded at 3.3%, remaining above the Fed’s target and supporting Goolsbee’s cautious stance. Additionally, US retail sales in May unexpectedly slowed, showing only a 0.1% increase. This adds complexity to the inflation narrative and creates uncertainty in the market. The combination of softer growth and ongoing inflation presents a challenging situation for policymakers. Meanwhile, the ECB already cut rates in early June but indicated uncertainty about future adjustments, highlighting the different opinions within the bank. This divergence in policy, with the ECB acting ahead of the Fed, may limit the Euro’s momentum in the short term. The upcoming flash PMIs and ECB policy decision will significantly influence the currency’s next moves. With significant economic data releases expected next week, adopting a long volatility strategy seems wise. Traders might consider a long straddle or strangle, which involves buying both a call and a put option. This strategy benefits from large price swings in either direction, potentially sparked by surprises in the PMI data or ECB announcements. Alternatively, if we anticipate the sideways movement to persist despite upcoming news, an iron condor might be effective. This strategy involves selling both an out-of-the-money call spread and a similar put spread, outlining a range where the trader expects EUR/USD to stay. It profits from low volatility and time decay, taking advantage of the pair’s recent tendency to move within a limited channel. Historically, implied volatility tends to rise before major central bank meetings and key data releases, making options pricier. We recommend checking the current implied volatility levels before engaging in any strategies. If premiums are already high, a range-bound strategy like an iron condor may seem more appealing than investing in a high-priced volatility play. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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QuantumScape’s stock has risen for nine consecutive days, reaching a three-year peak at $15.03. This increase follows advancements in their Cobra separator process, paving the way for commercial launch in the next two years. The broader market saw some selling after a profitable week, with the S&P 500 up over 0.5% and the NASDAQ Composite gaining 1.4%. On Friday, the NASDAQ Composite was the only major index to rise, with a modest increase of 0.05%.

Economic Indicators

Building permits and housing starts exceeded predictions, and consumer inflation expectations dropped significantly in a Michigan survey. QuantumScape is expected to share an updated commercialization plan in its next business update. QuantumScape’s shares hit $15 for the first time since May 2022, marking a significant increase. The stock rose after the announcement of reduced production speeds for its Cobra process. The QS stock recently rebounded from the 261.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $14.06. Its next targets are $17.98 and $20.41, while support may be seen near previous levels of $7.72 and $10.14, according to Fibonacci percentages. Given the stock’s recent activity, derivative traders should brace for increased volatility. The nine-day rise has pushed implied volatility to extreme levels, with the 30-day IV recently exceeding 130%, resulting in higher options premiums. This indicates that the market is preparing for a significant move around the company’s next update.

Options Trading Strategies

For those optimistic about the upcoming commercialization plan, buying call options is a straightforward way to speculate on further gains. Traders are likely targeting strike prices near the upcoming Fibonacci resistance levels of $17.98 and $20.41, expecting positive news from the business update. These options would benefit directly if the Cobra process makes progress beyond expectations. However, it is important to consider the stock’s history, which includes a significant drop from over $130 in late 2020, highlighting its potential for sharp reversals. With short interest around 17% of the float, many traders are betting against the rally. This makes buying put options or selling call spreads a practical strategy for those anticipating a “sell the news” scenario or a pullback from the recent highs. A more cautious approach might involve using spreads to manage the high option costs. A bull call spread could capture a move towards the upper targets while limiting initial costs. Alternatively, a straddle could profit from a large price change in either direction following the announcement. This strategy allows traders to capitalize on expected volatility rather than just the direction of the stock price. The broader market, with positive data on housing and inflation, sets a supportive background for speculative growth stocks. However, this company’s short-term performance is more influenced by its specific catalysts than by the NASDAQ’s daily movements. A general market downturn could still impede the rally, regardless of company-specific news. Ultimately, the upcoming business update is the crucial event that will shape the next major trend. Current options pricing reflects significant uncertainty, and traders should align their positions with their risk tolerance leading up to this important announcement. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The dollar has seen a rebound in the last two weeks, mainly due to tariff threats from Trump. This situation raises questions about what comes next for the dollar, especially with possible tariffs starting on August 1. Currently, many believe that tariffs haven’t had a major effect on US inflation, although they could in the future.

Dollar Recovery Influences

If tariffs do rise, it could complicate how we interpret inflation data. The dollar’s recent gains are primarily due to a short squeeze, yet it might have been stronger without Trump’s influence on the Fed and the cautious remarks from Waller and Bowman. We can see the dollar’s upward trend in the EUR/USD chart, even with shifting market sentiments. Technical analysis is crucial for understanding the short squeeze, especially since the dollar has been declining since April. Any recovery now might not mean a complete turnaround. With the approaching tariff deadlines and possible policy shifts, the dollar’s rebound remains uncertain. As Wall Street hits record highs, many wonder if other markets—like foreign exchange and bonds—will follow suit. Charts continue to be important for evaluating the dollar’s future in this environment. We view the current dollar rally as a classic short squeeze driven by heavy trading. Recent CFTC data shows that big speculators held a large net short position against the dollar, setting the stage for a painful unwind for those betting against it. This indicates that any positive news for the dollar could trigger more short-covering soon. Given the significant risk of the August 1 tariff deadline, we recommend using options as a smart strategy. Buying short-term dollar call options or put options on pairs like the EUR/USD allows you to take advantage of a possible tariff-driven rally while clearly limiting your potential loss. Implied volatility for these currency pairs has already increased, indicating that the options market expects a significant price move.

Monetary Policy Impact

However, the cautious stance from policymakers, like Mr. Waller, has limited this rally. The market anticipates a high chance of a rate cut in September, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing odds above 60%. This outlook on monetary policy could hinder a prolonged dollar rally. Looking back at the trade conflict from 2018-2019 offers helpful insights into what might happen next. During that time, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) initially gained strength as safe-haven demand rose amid global growth concerns, increasing over 8% even as tariffs were imposed. This history shows that a complicated trade situation can surprisingly boost the currency in the short term, despite long-term economic consequences. From a technical standpoint, we are monitoring critical levels on the charts to understand how robust the squeeze is. If the dollar index breaks and stays above its 50-day moving average, it could signal a shift in trend from bearish to neutral. The divergence with the stock market hitting new highs suggests that foreign exchange traders have been more relaxed and may need to adjust quickly if market sentiment changes. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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**Gold and Cryptocurrency Movements** China’s GDP grew by 5.2% in the first half of the year, thanks to strong trade and production. However, slower investments and retail sales raise some concerns. When trading foreign exchange on margin, investors face significant risks. High leverage can lead to losses that exceed the initial investment. It’s crucial to weigh all risks and seek professional advice when needed. **Institutional and Trader Strategy** A decrease in net long positions shows that major institutional traders are becoming more cautious about crude oil. Recent data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated a surprising increase in U.S. crude inventories, reinforcing this caution. We recommend that traders think about buying puts or setting up bearish put spreads on oil futures to guard against falling prices. The rise in major currency pairs suggests that the market expects a weaker U.S. dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) recently dropped below 105, hinting at possible interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. We believe that holding long positions through call options on the euro or pound is a good way to benefit from this trend while managing risk. Gold’s recent rise to around $2,350 an ounce is linked to the decline in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which have fallen to about 4.4%. This makes gold, a non-yielding asset, more appealing to investors. We see this as a favorable time for long call options on gold futures, as they offer upside potential with limited downside risk. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is consolidating around $67,000, while Ethereum trades near $3,500, also showing consolidation below its peak. We suggest that traders use options to take advantage of volatility with strategies like straddles instead of making bets on new highs just yet. International economic signals introduce some caution amidst a generally positive outlook. China’s recent manufacturing PMI figures remain around the 50-point mark, indicating stalled rather than strong growth. We advise utilizing derivatives to hedge against equities that heavily rely on Asian consumers. Given the mixed global economic signals, the risks of trading derivatives are heightened. We are tightening our stop-losses and favoring option strategies that clearly define our maximum risk for each trade. This market demands a disciplined approach since positive sentiment could change rapidly. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The net positions for the Australian Dollar (AUD) have dropped to $-74.9K, down from $-74.3K. This data reflects the trading actions of large speculators and shows how the market feels about the AUD. The EUR/USD pair has increased to over 1.1650, helped by a weaker US Dollar. A drop in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index negatively affected the strength of the US Dollar.

GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair has risen above 1.3450 due to the weakening US Dollar. A positive market atmosphere and lower inflation expectations among US consumers have contributed to this rise. Gold prices have climbed, now trading above $3,350. The softening of the US Dollar and falling US Treasury bond yields have supported these gains. Bitcoin is nearing its all-time high, while Ethereum approaches $4,000, and Ripple has hit a new record of $3.66. In China, the GDP for the second quarter grew by 5.2% year-on-year, although investment and retail sales are experiencing slowdowns. We see a clear opportunity due to the weakening US Dollar, driven by poor consumer confidence data and signs of moderating US inflation. Recent statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the annual inflation rate has decreased significantly. This reinforces the idea that the Federal Reserve may pause its rate hikes. We suggest that derivative traders explore strategies that take advantage of this trend, like selling US Dollar index futures.

Divergence in Monetary Policy Expectations

The rise of the Euro and the British Pound indicates a divergence in monetary policy expectations. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are likely to see inflation challenges that may keep their interest rates higher for a longer period than those in the US. Therefore, we believe it might be profitable to establish long positions through EUR/USD or GBP/USD call options. Despite the overall weakness of the US Dollar, we advise caution regarding the Australian Dollar due to deeply negative speculative positioning. The economic slowdown in Australia’s largest trading partner, marked by weak investment data from Beijing, poses a significant challenge for this commodity-linked currency. Historically, such negative sentiment has led to further declines, so we recommend against aggressive long positions here. The rise in gold prices is closely linked to the fall in real yields on US government debt, a trend we expect to continue. Gold tends to do well in these situations, and recent reports of record purchases by global central banks provide solid support. We view buying gold futures or call options as a good strategy to hedge against ongoing currency debasement and geopolitical uncertainty. The digital asset market is showing great strength, driven by substantial institutional investments following the recent approval of spot exchange-traded funds in the US. This structural change, along with hopes for a bullish supply reduction event for major cryptocurrencies, suggests that the momentum will continue. Traders might consider taking long positions in futures contracts for key digital currencies to take advantage of this strong upward trend. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The CFTC S&P 500 non-commercial net positions have dropped from $-140K to $-167.8K. The EUR/USD pair has risen above 1.1650, thanks to a decrease in US consumer inflation expectations. Likewise, GBP/USD has increased past 1.3450 due to a weaker USD and changing market sentiment.

Gold and Cryptocurrency Updates

Gold is on the rise, holding steady above $3,350 as US Treasury bond yields fall and the USD weakens. In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin is trading above $120,000 and is close to its all-time high. Ethereum is targeting $4,000, while Ripple has reached a new record high of $3.66. China’s GDP growth is robust, sitting at 5.2% for the second quarter, driven by trade and industrial production. However, slowdowns in investment and retail sales, along with falling property prices, raise concerns. Many brokers provide competitive spreads and quick execution for trading EUR/USD, serving both beginners and experienced traders in the Forex market. It’s important to do thorough research and find the right broker to handle trading challenges effectively.

Market Sentiment and Strategy Insights

The increase in net short positions in the S&P 500 indicates growing bearish sentiment among large traders, which we find significant. Historically, similar levels of short selling have often foreshadowed increased market volatility or downturns. We recommend hedging existing long positions with put options or starting new short positions on index futures. We believe the rise in major currency pairs against the dollar is an important trend, driven by changing interest rate expectations. The recent University of Michigan survey shows that consumer one-year inflation expectations have fallen to 3.1%, strengthening the case for a less aggressive Federal Reserve. Derivative traders should think about taking long positions in EUR and GBP futures or buying call options to benefit from this dollar weakness. Gold’s recent gains, now around $2,350 per ounce, are closely linked to the drop in US bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4.3% makes non-yielding safe havens more appealing. This situation suggests it’s a good time to hold or increase long positions in gold through futures contracts. The ongoing cryptocurrency rally, with Bitcoin near $67,000, shows high speculative interest in certain market segments. While there’s caution in traditional equities, capital is still being invested in high-beta assets. We suggest approaching this sector with clear risk strategies, like using options to engage with the upside while minimizing potential losses. China’s mixed economic signals pose a considerable risk to global growth and corporate earnings. Although GDP is strong, weaknesses in the property sector and a youth unemployment rate of 14.7% are concerning. This reinforces our cautious outlook on multinational companies that depend on that market for growth. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The UK’s CFTC GBP net positions have changed, dropping from £33.2K to £29.2K. This information is for your awareness only and shouldn’t be seen as advice to trade in these assets. This content may contain forward-looking statements and involves risks and uncertainties. It’s important to do thorough research before making any trading decisions to manage potential financial risks.

Understanding Investment Risks

Investing in markets carries high risks, including the chance of losing a significant portion of your investment. Readers are responsible for understanding these risks and may want to consult an independent financial advisor if necessary. We cannot guarantee the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided. Stay cautious. This content serves as market commentary and is not intended as investment advice. The author takes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. A decrease in net long positions for the British Pound shows that large speculators are lowering their bullish bets. The drop from £33.2K to £29.2K indicates a lack of confidence in the currency’s strength in the near future. For derivative traders, this is a cue to reassess the risks of holding long positions.

Analyzing Recent Economic Data

This change in positioning comes as recent UK data shows a mixed economic outlook, likely causing some caution. The economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter, pulling out of a recession. However, April’s inflation dropped to 2.3%, but high services inflation remained at 5.9%. This conflicting data likely contributes to a decline in speculative confidence. The Bank of England has maintained its interest rate at a 16-year high of 5.25%, with some members now advocating a cut. Governor Bailey has emphasized needing more evidence that price pressures are under control before any policy changes. This disagreement within the central bank adds uncertainty, which generally affects the currency negatively. Historically, a sustained reduction in speculative net longs can lead to a period of price stabilization or a decline in the asset’s value. Traders might think about using options to hedge their exposure or prepare for a possible downturn. We believe buying put options to safeguard gains or establish bearish positions may become a preferred strategy in the upcoming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Next week, we will pay close attention to decisions from the ECB and PBoC about LPR rates, as well as the CBRT, Global PMI surveys, the Japanese Upper House Election, and UK Retail Sales. **Japanese Upper House Election** On Sunday, all eyes will be on the Japanese Upper House Election. The LDP-led coalition could lose its majority, impacting domestic yields. There are 124 out of 248 seats that are up for re-election. **PBoC Rate Decision** On Monday, the PBoC is expected to keep rates unchanged. Currently, the 1-year LPR is at 3.00%, and the 5-year is at 3.50%, reflecting strong recent economic data.

European Central Bank Decision

Thursday is the ECB’s policy announcement, where there’s a 94% chance rates will remain the same. Ongoing trade tensions between the EU and US pose risks to growth, raising concerns about falling short of the ECB’s 2% inflation target. For July, the eurozone’s manufacturing PMI is predicted to be 49.7, with services at 50.8 and the composite at 50.9. In the UK, PMIs are also expected to show slight increases. Analysts predict the Bank of England will keep policies unchanged unless there is a significant change in economic indicators. The CBRT is expected to lower rates, continuing its response to political instability. A cut from 46% to 43.50% is expected after inflation numbers came in lower than anticipated. On Friday, UK Retail Sales data will be in focus, with a forecasted rise of 1.1% month-on-month following weaker figures last month due to an exaggerated drop in sales volumes. We view the outcome of the Japanese election as a major factor for government bond volatility, where recently the 10-year yield rose above 1.1% for the first time since 2011. Derivative traders might want to consider long-volatility strategies on yen-denominated assets, especially with the risk of a minority government that could push the prime minister toward fiscal stimulus, which may increase yields and impact the currency. The People’s Bank of China is unlikely to cause major market movement, as a rate hold is expected. After a stronger-than-forecast 5.5% GDP growth in Q2, authorities seem less pressured for immediate stimulus. As a result, we recommend avoiding large bets on Chinese rates this week and expect implied volatility to remain low.

European And Turkish Central Banks

For the ECB, we expect a steady approach this week, keeping short-term rate volatility low. However, trade tariffs from the US could pose risks, so traders should be cautious about being short volatility on the euro. The euro’s recent rise toward 1.09 against the dollar complicates the inflation outlook for policymakers like Lagarde, making any hawkish comments unlikely. Flash purchasing managers’ index data will provide insight before the main policy announcement. While modest growth is anticipated, any weakness in forward-looking components may indicate trade concerns are affecting sentiment, as suggested by a recent drop in the July Sentix investor confidence survey. Significant deviations could cause brief spikes in volatility, creating short-term trading opportunities in equity index futures. In the UK, we are hopeful for a rebound in retail sales following a sharp 2.7% drop in May. This could ease expectations for aggressive easing from the Bank of England. While purchasing managers’ surveys will likely confirm steady, uninspiring growth, a strong consumer report might lead traders to slightly lower their expectations for 50 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, offering temporary support for the pound against major currencies. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will make a significant decision, with expectations centered on a 250 basis point cut. With June’s annual inflation at 35.05%, there’s a valid reason for easing, but derivative traders should be cautious about the extent of this move. An aggressive cut could speed up the lira’s decline amid political issues surrounding Erdogan, making options strategies that take advantage of high volatility appealing. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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