Gold steadies near $5,000 as traders await Fed minutes, after rebounding from Tuesday’s 2% drop
Gold rose on Wednesday after falling more than 2% in the previous session, as traders positioned ahead of the FOMC minutes. The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in January. The minutes may show how divided officials are on the pace of future easing.
US data has been mixed. January CPI fell to a four-year low of 2.4%, while 312K jobs were added in January. Traders are also watching Friday’s PCE inflation report and Q4 GDP.
Cautious investors push AUD/USD near 0.7060 as a stronger US dollar awaits FOMC minutes and Australian jobs data
AUD/USD slipped 0.25% and traded near 0.7060 on Wednesday. Traders stayed cautious ahead of the FOMC minutes due later in the day, and Australia’s jobs report due on Thursday. The US Dollar firmed as markets looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s January meeting account.
Markets will scan the minutes for signals on the US rate outlook, including when cuts might start and how large they could be. If the Fed sounds more cautious on easing, the US Dollar could strengthen and weigh on the Australian Dollar.
Key Event Risks Ahead
Attention is also on Australia’s January employment report. Forecasts point to around 20,000 new jobs after a strong December. The unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 4.2% from 4.1%. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index slowed sharply in January. That suggests weaker economic momentum, even with support from higher commodity prices. Slower growth and tight financial conditions could further pressure activity, while Reserve Bank of Australia expectations remain closely tied to incoming data. We expect the Aussie dollar to struggle near 0.6580 today, slipping slightly as traders stay on the sidelines. The main focus is the Fed minutes later today, followed closely by Australia’s employment data tomorrow. Together, they set up a clear tug-of-war between US and Australian economic signals. The US Dollar is finding support as markets scale back the aggressive rate-cut bets seen late last year. The US January CPI print of 2.9% is another sign inflation remains sticky. If the Fed minutes lean cautious, the greenback could push higher and put more pressure on the Aussie. In Australia, the market is preparing for the January jobs report. Consensus expects about 15,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. This follows weak 0.3% GDP growth in Q4 2025. If the labour market softens, it would likely remove any remaining chance of further RBA rate hikes.Options Strategies To Watch
With these risks in play, we see buying AUD/USD put options as a practical approach for the next few weeks. This can help protect against a drop if the Fed sounds hawkish and Australia’s jobs numbers disappoint. It also offers defined risk while positioning for a move back toward the 0.6400 area seen last year. For traders who are unsure on direction but expect a large move, volatility may offer opportunities. Implied volatility in AUD/USD options has risen ahead of these events. A long straddle could benefit if either the Fed minutes or the jobs report triggers a breakout in either direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.USD/JPY trades near 154.48 as volatility eases, the yen weakens, and US dollar demand improves
USD/JPY rose on Wednesday as the Japanese Yen weakened and the US Dollar strengthened. The pair gained nearly 0.78% and was trading around 154.48 at the time of writing.
The US Dollar was supported by solid US economic data. This led traders to scale back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Focus now shifts to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes, due later in the US session.
Technical Outlook And Key Levels
On the daily chart, the outlook is neutral to mildly bullish. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, which points to lower volatility and a period of consolidation. Price is sitting just below the mid-band and the 20-day Simple Moving Average near 154.73. Resistance sits around 154.70 to 155.00. A clear break above this zone could open the door to a move toward the upper Bollinger Band near 158.14. If price cannot reclaim the 20-day SMA, support is near the lower Bollinger Band around 151.31, followed by 150.00. The Relative Strength Index is near 46, and the Average Directional Index is around 23. USD/JPY is showing low volatility and holding in a tight range. This can suit traders who sell premium. Narrowing Bollinger Bands often come before extended consolidation, similar to what we saw in the third quarter of 2025. In this setup, strategies such as selling short-dated strangles or iron condors can be appealing, aiming to profit if the pair stays between key support and resistance.Macro Drivers And Options Positioning
On the US side, the dollar remains supported, which helps prevent a sharp drop in the pair. January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed core inflation holding at 2.9%. This has pushed out expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and kept US yields elevated. We expect this to keep a floor under USD/JPY near 152.00 in the coming weeks. On the other hand, the main risk limiting gains is possible intervention by Japanese authorities. Verbal warnings increased as the pair neared 158.00 late last year, and the Ministry of Finance has a history of stepping in directly, as seen in the 2024 interventions. This risk makes traders reluctant to drive the pair much higher, creating a clearer ceiling. This push and pull—US Dollar strength versus intervention risk—has kept implied volatility low, making longer-dated options relatively cheap. For traders looking ahead to a potential breakout, buying long-dated straddles may be a sensible way to position for a large move in either direction. The low ADX reading below 25 supports the view that there is no strong trend right now, but this type of market usually does not last forever. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose says Polish markets are pricing less than 25bps of easing despite signals of a March cut, with the zloty lagging
Polish forwards now expect less than 25 bps of rate cuts over the next 3–6 months. At the start of February, they expected more than 25 bps. This change came after the February National Bank of Poland (NBP) rate meeting.
Members of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC)—including Ludwik Kotecki, Gabriela Maslowska, Przemyslaw Litwiniuk, and Henryk Wnorowski—have said there is a high chance of a 25 bps cut at the next meeting. They pointed to a better inflation outlook.
Policy Path After March
After March, there is more debate about where policy goes next. Fewer MPC members now talk about a 3.25% terminal rate. Some have suggested there may be only one 25 bps cut, which would imply a 3.75% terminal rate. Governor Glapinski previously pointed to a 3.50% terminal rate, while other members have discussed more cautious paths. Commerzbank expects the terminal rate to end up below 3.50%. If that happens, the zloty may lag its CE3 peers for a few months. The article also notes it was produced with an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. Forward markets are pricing in less than a 25 bp cut from the NBP, even though several MPC members say a cut in March is likely. This gap between market pricing and central bank messaging suggests an opportunity. We see the dovish tone as a strong sign that a rate cut is close.Implications For Zloty Positioning
The case for a rate cut is supported by recent data. Inflation in January 2026 fell to 3.1%, down from 3.9% in Q4 2025. At the same time, Q4 2025 GDP growth slowed to 2.2%. Together, these figures give the NBP room to start easing policy to support the economy. This makes the MPC’s dovish messaging look more believable than current market pricing suggests. With this outlook, we expect the Polish zloty to underperform for a period. Markets may be underestimating how willing the NBP is to cut rates—not only in March, but potentially beyond that toward a terminal rate below 3.50%. That creates a supportive backdrop for strategies that expect a weaker zloty. For derivatives traders, this argues for positioning for PLN weakness versus its CE3 peers, where central banks are expected to ease more slowly. One idea is long positions in pairs like Czech koruna versus zloty (CZK/PLN). Options that benefit from a higher EUR/PLN—such as buying call spreads—may also look attractive over the next several weeks. This possible shift matters when we look at what the NBP did last year. For most of 2025, it kept the reference rate at 4.00% while waiting for clear proof that inflation pressures were fading. That makes the March meeting more than a one-off decision. It could be the start of a new easing cycle that markets have not fully priced in. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.WTI crude rose as US-Iran nuclear talks unsettled markets and fuelled fears of a Strait of Hormuz closure
The US and Iran ended a second round of nuclear talks in Geneva. Both sides said they made progress on key principles. However, they still disagree on uranium enrichment, sanctions, and how broad the talks should be.
During the talks, Iran held live-fire drills and partially closed the Strait of Hormuz. The strait handles about 20% of global oil flows. This was described as the first closure since the US began a military build-up in the region.
Supply Signals And Opec Decisions
US supply data pointed the other way. EIA figures showed crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels, the largest weekly build in a year. OPEC+ is leaning toward restarting production increases from April, with a meeting set for 1 March. WTI opened Tuesday near $62.20 and rose 3.4% on the day. This move pushed prices back above the 200-day and 50-day EMAs. The 200-day is near $62.43–$62.45, and the 50-day is at $61.25. Resistance is at $65.00 and the year-to-date high of $66.25, with $67.00 above that. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the middle of its range. Around this time last year, oil prices swung sharply because of uncertainty around the US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. Tensions were high as Iran ran military drills and partly closed the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical risk created major volatility for traders.Market Backdrop And Trading Approach
Today, the picture is different. A limited agreement reached in late 2025 eased some of the toughest sanctions and allowed more Iranian oil onto the market. Even so, tensions in the region remain. That helps support prices, because any flare-up could quickly threaten supply routes again. The market is pricing in a fragile peace, and it remains sensitive to new headlines. In early 2025, the market was dealing with a huge 8.5 million-barrel weekly build in US crude inventories, which pressured prices. At the same time, OPEC+ was hinting it could raise output, which added to the bearish mood. This extra supply worked against the support coming from geopolitical fears. By contrast, the latest EIA report for the week ending February 13, 2026, showed a surprise inventory draw of 2.1 million barrels. That points to stronger demand. In addition, OPEC+ agreed in December 2025 to keep production steady through the first quarter of this year, which reduced fears of more supply. Together, these factors create a stronger fundamental backdrop for oil than we had a year ago. On the technical side, this time in 2025 WTI was trying to reclaim its 200-day moving average near $62.43. Price action was choppy, which suggested consolidation. It was a key moment, with momentum evenly balanced. Now the chart looks more clearly bullish. WTI is trading near $84.50, well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Last year’s consolidation near $62 became the base for the strong uptrend that followed. Overall momentum looks positive and established. With fundamentals showing tighter supply and technicals confirming an uptrend, we think traders may want to position for more gains. Buying call options or setting up bull call spreads for April or May expiration can offer defined risk while targeting a move toward $90. This approach also aligns with the current momentum. At the same time, geopolitical headlines can bring volatility back quickly. It may make sense to add protection, such as buying out-of-the-money put options. This can hedge long exposure against a sudden drop caused by failed diplomacy or a new regional conflict. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Dow climbs 300 points ahead of Federal Reserve minutes as dip-buyers return, buoyed by Nvidia–Meta deal
US shares rose for a third straight session. The DJIA added about 300 points (0.65%), the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq gained about 0.5%.
Markets were waiting for the Fed’s January minutes, due at 2:00 PM ET. The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. Markets see roughly a 90% chance of no change in March, and the first cut is not expected before June.
Ai Trade And Fed Focus
Nvidia rose more than 2% after Meta expanded an AI chip deal. Meta plans to deploy millions of Nvidia chips in US data centres. The order includes Grace CPUs and Vera Rubin GPU systems, and is described as being worth tens of billions. AMD fell nearly 4%. Amazon rose nearly 2% after Pershing Square increased its stake by 65% in the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs gained nearly 3%. Palo Alto Networks fell about 10% even though Q2 adjusted EPS was $1.03 on $2.59 billion in revenue, versus $0.94 and $2.58 billion expected. Its Q3 EPS outlook was $0.78 to $0.80, below the $0.92 consensus. The stock is down about 11% year to date. The higher costs were tied to a $25 billion CyberArk acquisition and a $3 billion Chronosphere deal. Applied Digital fell nearly 8% after Nvidia exited a $177 million stake.Earnings And Options Volatility
Garmin jumped after adjusted EPS of $2.79 on $2.12 billion in revenue, beating estimates of $2.39 and $2.01 billion. It guided 2026 EPS of $9.35 on $7.9 billion in revenue, versus $8.51 and $7.4 billion expected. Wingstop rose more than 13% after adjusted EPS of $1.00, above the $0.84 estimate. Q4 domestic same-store sales fell 5.8%. Its 2026 guidance called for flat to low-single-digit growth. Gold rose above $5,000 per ounce, near a two-week high. China’s central bank bought gold for a 15th straight month in January, after a late-January crash tied to Kevin Warsh’s nomination. Oil rose more than 2% to nearly $64 per barrel on Russia-Ukraine tensions and reports around Iran nuclear talks. December housing starts were 1.4 million annualised, released late after a government shutdown. After the rebound from last week’s AI-driven selloff, we expect volatility to stay elevated in technology. The Fed minutes matter, because any signal that rate cuts could be pushed beyond June could quickly end the current dip-buying. The latest January 2026 jobs report also showed surprising strength, similar to the strong reports seen across 2024. That gives the Fed less reason to cut rates soon. We expect the AI trade to become more selective. Nvidia continues to strengthen its lead with the new Meta partnership. One approach is a pairs trade that favours Nvidia over AMD using call options, especially after AMD’s nearly 4% drop today. The move supports the winner-take-all pattern seen in AI hardware over the past two years. Earnings are driving big one-day moves, which can create opportunities in single-name options. Palo Alto Networks falling 10% on weaker guidance may make puts attractive. At the same time, high implied volatility after earnings in names like Garmin and Wingstop can make strategies such as selling puts appealing for traders who think the new highs will hold. Similar volatility is likely in other tech and consumer names reporting in the coming weeks. We are also watching commodities for signs that strength could continue. Gold futures are above a record $5,000 per ounce. With steady central bank buying and the market looking for a future Fed pivot, call options on gold ETFs may be attractive, similar to past rallies during easing cycles. Geopolitical risk is also lifting crude toward $64 a barrel, making bullish oil positions a reasonable hedge against further instability. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Asian markets may diversify AI trades as investors rotate from pioneers to faster-cashflow enablers
The AI selloff is now spreading beyond a handful of tech leaders. Markets are moving away from expensive AI pioneers and toward companies with nearer-term cash flow and stronger pricing power.
The pressure is clearest in software, wealth management and brokers, insurance, logistics and transport, and real estate services. In these sectors, AI tools can cut fees, squeeze margins, and replace manual work.
Us Downstream Exposure
The US market has more exposure to downstream AI, such as apps, software, and services. This is driving tougher questions about monetisation, payback on AI spending, and whether AI shifts value away from companies and toward customers. Asia has more exposure to upstream AI infrastructure, such as memory, foundries, and assembly and packaging. Demand for physical build-outs can support these areas, even when service-based models face disruption. Within Asia, Korea and Taiwan are most tied to AI hardware cycles, supply tightness, component pricing, and factory utilisation. Japan is more tied to AI adoption in industry and enterprise, including automation, robotics, sensors, and process upgrades. Diversification also has limits. Many Asian indices are top-heavy, and Taiwan and Korea can be driven by a small number of large chip-related stocks.Risks And Drawdowns
Asia can still decline during global risk-off moves, broad tech selloffs, or semiconductor down-cycles. Asia-listed software and IT services also fell with US peers during this selloff. This selloff does not mean the AI boom is over. It looks more like a rotation. We are seeing a shift away from US software and service companies and toward Asian upstream hardware and component makers. In other words, investors are moving from businesses that may be disrupted by AI to businesses that supply the infrastructure AI needs. This split has been clear in the first seven weeks of 2026. The Nasdaq 100 is down about 8%, while Taiwan’s TAIEX is up about 3%. This follows 2025, when US downstream AI stocks were priced for perfection and became vulnerable once scrutiny increased. The market is now favouring tangible cash flows from AI enablers over more speculative promises from AI applications. For traders, this rotation could be expressed through pairs trades. One approach is to buy call options on ETFs focused on Korean and Taiwanese semiconductors while also buying puts on US software-as-a-service indices. The goal is to benefit if the gap keeps widening between upstream “picks and shovels” and downstream service models under margin pressure. Rising “dispersion” in the US market also creates a volatility opportunity. Implied volatility in specific US software and financial services stocks may rise more than volatility in the broader S&P 500. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has already moved above 22, which can support relative-volatility trades between sectors. Within Asia, Korea and Taiwan offer the most direct exposure to the AI infrastructure build-out. Recent industry reports show high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chip prices kept rising in January 2026, which directly supports major Korean manufacturers. This pricing power suggests resilience, even as US software companies face pressure to prove they can monetise AI. Japan offers a different, and often steadier, way to gain AI exposure. The focus is less on core components and more on industrial adoption and automation to address labour shortages. One possible strategy is selling puts on Japanese industrial automation or robotics ETFs to earn premium, based on the view that these businesses face less near-term disruption. Even so, the Asian trade has meaningful risks, especially concentration risk. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company now makes up more than 30% of Taiwan’s main stock index, so one company can drive overall returns. To reduce this risk, you could hedge a long Asia position by buying puts on a global semiconductor ETF, which helps protect against a wider chip-sector downturn. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.GBP/USD dips as UK inflation cools and BoE monitors disinflation ahead of FOMC minutes
UK inflation data on Wednesday showed headline CPI at 3%. The Retail Price Index fell to 3.8% from 4.2%. Tuesday’s labour report showed unemployment at 5.2% and payrolls down by 30K. Markets also expect more Bank of England rate cuts from 3.75%.
In the US, the Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75% at its January meeting, in a 10–2 vote. Two members dissented and wanted a cut. The FOMC minutes are due today, along with US housing and durable goods data. These releases should add more detail on the policy outlook.
Technical Picture For GBPUSD
GBP/USD edged lower on Wednesday and closed near 1.3540. Trading was quiet, with a range of about 50 pips. The pair is testing the rising 50-day EMA at 1.3534 for the first time since mid-January. The 200-day EMA is also rising and sits at 1.3362. After reaching a year-to-date high of 1.3869 in late January, the pair has posted lower highs. The decline picked up pace after it fell below 1.3600 this week. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned bearish and is moving toward oversold levels. A daily close below the 50-day EMA could open the door to 1.3400. A move back above 1.3600 would be needed to stabilise the pullback. At this point in 2025, the outlook signalled a weaker pound. UK inflation and labour data were cooling sharply, and the Bank of England looked ready to cut rates from 3.75%. The Federal Reserve, by contrast, looked more cautious. That policy gap correctly pointed to GBP/USD breaking below its 50-day moving average and trending lower over the next two quarters.Policy Divergence In 2026
The picture in February 2026 is very different from last year. The Bank of England has held its key rate at 3.25% for three straight meetings. It has pointed to persistent wage growth, now running at 4.1% year over year. This is a clear shift from the aggressive rate-cut cycle that was expected through most of 2025. At the same time, the US economy is showing clearer signs of slowing. The latest Non-Farm Payrolls report for January 2026 showed just 85,000 jobs added, well below consensus estimates. US core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, has cooled to 2.9%. This has increased market expectations for a Fed cut by mid-year, reversing the policy-divergence theme from last year. In this environment, derivative traders may want to shift their GBP/USD view from bearish to neutral, or cautiously bullish. The phase where sterling was expected to weaken because of heavy BoE easing looks less likely for now. Strategies that suit range trading, or a gradual move higher in GBP, may now fit better. One approach is to consider buying GBP/USD call options expiring in Q2 2026, positioning for a slow grind higher. Strike prices around 1.3850 could offer an attractive risk-reward setup, targeting a retest of the early-2025 highs. This limits downside while keeping exposure to upside if the pound strengthens as central-bank expectations shift. Volatility also matters when setting up trades. Implied volatility for GBP/USD has fallen to a 12-month low of 6.8%, making long-option strategies cheaper than they were for much of last year. This makes it a more cost-effective time to build positions that can benefit if prices start moving more. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.ING economists expect Hungary’s central bank to start easing by cutting the base rate 25 basis points to 6.25%
ING economists Peter Virovacz and Frantisek Taborsky expect the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to start cutting rates at its 24 February meeting. They forecast a 25bp cut, which would take the base rate to 6.25% after 16 months without a change.
They also expect the +/- 100bp interest rate corridor to move lower in line with the base rate. Their outlook leaves room for another 25bp cut in March, depending on inflation and foreign exchange conditions.
Election Risk And The Rate Path
They note that the general election on 12 April could influence later decisions. They project that, if prices and markets remain stable, the NBH could deliver one or two more rate cuts before the end of 2026. Money market pricing already reflects several 25bp cuts over the next couple of months. The article says it was created with help from an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. With the NBH likely to cut its base rate next week on February 24, we should position for lower interest rates. January 2026 inflation of 3.6% looks manageable and gives the central bank room to move. We are considering forward rate agreements and interest rate swaps that should benefit if the expected 25bp cut happens. This easing cycle also puts downward pressure on the Hungarian forint. We should consider shorting the forint against the euro. The EUR/HUF rate, now steady around 394, may move higher. In 2025, the forint weakened during easing periods, and that pattern could return.Hedging Into The April Vote
The April 12 election adds a key source of uncertainty, so we need to monitor volatility. We should consider buying EUR/HUF options that expire after the election. These can hedge risk or express a view on a larger move. Implied volatility for April contracts is already rising from late-year lows, suggesting the market is starting to price in this risk. The expectation of one or two more cuts by the end of 2026 suggests this is the start of a trend, not a one-time change. That supports holding longer-term positions that benefit from a flatter or falling yield curve, as Hungarian government bond yields may keep dropping from the 6.5% levels seen earlier this month. Any short-term forint strength may be a chance to add to short positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Russia’s annual producer prices fell further in January, to -5% from -3.3%
Russia’s Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 5% year on year in January. This was a bigger drop than the 3.3% fall in the previous period.
The latest figure shows producer prices are falling faster than they were a month ago. It means Russian producers received lower prices than they did a year earlier.
