Singapore’s retail sales fell by 0.4% year on year in January. This followed a 2.7% increase in the previous period. The latest figure shows a shift from growth to a small decline. It suggests retail activity was slightly weaker than a month earlier.

Retail Sales Shift Signals Softer Demand

The new data shows Singapore’s retail sales fell by 0.4% in January, a sharp reversal from the 2.7% growth we saw before. This is a clear signal that consumer spending is weakening right at the start of the year. We believe this suggests a tougher economic environment ahead for the first quarter. This slowdown puts pressure on the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to potentially ease its strong currency policy in the upcoming April meeting. Looking back at 2025, the MAS was focused on tightening to fight inflation, but this new data challenges that stance. As a result, we could consider buying put options on the Singapore Dollar, especially against the US dollar, betting that its recent strength will fade. For equity traders, this report points to potential weakness in the stock market, particularly for companies that rely on consumer spending. The Straits Times Index has already struggled to stay above 3,300, and this could trigger a downturn. Recent statistics from the SGX show short interest on major retail-focused REITs has already climbed by 5% in the last month, suggesting others are positioning for a slide. This domestic weakness is amplified by troubles abroad. China’s latest manufacturing PMI, released just days ago, dipped back to 49.8, showing a contraction in our largest trading partner’s industrial sector. Historically, a slowdown in China has directly impacted Singapore’s trade and manufacturing, as we saw during the 2015-2016 period.

External Headwinds Add To Domestic Strain

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Gold prices in the Philippines rose on Thursday, based on FXStreet-compiled data. Gold was priced at PHP 9,742.86 per gram, up from PHP 9,675.68 on Wednesday. Per tola, gold rose to PHP 113,638.90 from PHP 112,855.20 a day earlier. Other listed prices were PHP 97,428.46 for 10 grams and PHP 303,036.60 per troy ounce.

Local Gold Pricing Method

FXStreet derives local gold prices by converting international prices using the USD/PHP exchange rate and local units. The figures are updated daily using market rates at the time of publication, and are for reference as local prices may differ slightly. Central banks are the largest holders of gold. The World Gold Council reported that central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual purchase on record. Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and can also move opposite to risk assets. Prices are influenced by geopolitical events, recession fears, interest rates, and shifts in the US Dollar because gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). We are seeing gold prices firm up, which aligns with its role as a safe-haven asset. This move is also a reaction to currency fluctuations, particularly the inverse relationship gold holds with the US dollar. Traders should closely monitor the Dollar Index (DXY) as a primary indicator for gold’s next direction.

Market Outlook And Drivers

The underlying support for gold is strong, as central banks continued their aggressive purchasing throughout 2025, adding over 1,050 tonnes to global reserves. This institutional demand creates a solid price floor, even as we saw some outflows from gold-backed ETFs last year. The primary driver remains the desire to hedge against currency devaluation and geopolitical risk. We must consider the Federal Reserve’s recent signals to pause its rate-cutting cycle after initial reductions late in 2025. January’s inflation figures came in slightly higher than expected at 2.8%, creating uncertainty about the timing of the next cut. This ambiguity often boosts gold’s appeal, as it performs well when the future path of interest rates is unclear. For the coming weeks, a cautious but bullish stance using options may be prudent. Consider strategies like bull call spreads on gold futures, which allow profiting from a rise in price while capping the downside risk if the Fed’s pause strengthens the dollar unexpectedly. This approach benefits from the underlying support without being fully exposed to short-term volatility. We are also observing that implied volatility in gold options has ticked up, reflecting the market’s current uncertainty. Historical data from the 2022-2023 period showed that gold can stay elevated even during rate hike cycles if inflation fears persist. Traders who believe the price will remain relatively stable could explore selling premium if a major price breakout does not occur. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Jakarta, Indonesia – 5 March 2026 – VT Markets has successfully concluded its Ramadan Community Outreach initiative in collaboration with YCAB Foundation, an Indonesia-based non-profit organisation focused on youth empowerment and community development, with programs spanning education, financial inclusion, and sustainable economic support.

Launched in observance of the holy month of Ramadan, the initiative was designed to ease the additional financial pressures faced by underserved families during this significant period. Through YCAB Foundation’s well-established grassroots network, beneficiaries were carefully identified, ensuring that assistance was delivered directly and responsibly to 100 families in need across East Jakarta.

“Through this collaboration, we hope to provide not just essential support, but also a reminder that no one stands alone, especially during Ramadan, a season rooted in compassion and shared responsibility. With partners like VT Markets, we’re able to reach vulnerable families in a timely way while continuing to strengthen their resilience and ability to move forward with greater stability,” said Samantha Susilo, Chief of Party at YCAB Foundation.

On 27 February 2026, a combined team of VT Markets volunteers and YCAB employees came together on the ground to distribute essential food staple packages. Families in need received essential food staple packages containing rice, cooking oil, sugar, and other daily necessities – practical essentials intended to relieve short-term financial strain while allowing families to observe Ramadan with greater peace of mind.

“During Ramadan, we are reminded that meaningful impact begins with shared responsibility,” said Dandelyn Koh, Head of Global Marketing at VT Markets. “Working together with YCAB Foundation has allowed us to extend support to families during this important season, and we are truly grateful for that opportunity. We would also like to thank our partners and clients for their continued trust, which makes initiatives like this possible.”

The successful completion of this programme reinforces VT Markets’ broader commitment to responsible corporate engagement in Indonesia. Beyond its role in the financial markets, the company continues to invest in community-focused initiatives that foster resilience, strengthen local relationships, and deliver measurable social value.

As VT Markets expands its regional footprint, purposeful outreach remains central to its long-term goal of transforming presence into partnership and commitment into meaningful action.

About VT Markets

VT Markets is a regulated multi-asset broker with a presence in over 160 countries as of today. It has earned numerous international accolades including Best Online Trading and Fastest Growing Broker. In line with its mission to make trading accessible to all, VT Markets offers comprehensive access to over 1,000 financial instruments and clients benefit from a seamless trading experience via its award-winning mobile application.

For more information, please visit the official VT Markets website or email us at [email protected]. Alternatively, follow VT Markets on Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn.

For media enquiries and sponsorship opportunities, please email [email protected], or contact:

Dandelyn Koh

Head of Global Marketing

[email protected]

Brenda Wong

Assistant Manager, Global PR & Communications

[email protected]

About YCAB FOUNDATION

Founded in 1999, YCAB Foundation envisions breaking the cycle of poverty by utilizing financial inclusion as a tool to expand and strengthen education for adolescents from urban poor families. YCAB has impacted over 5 million youth and empowered more than 200,000 ultra-micro women entrepreneurs. In 2024, YCAB Foundation maintained its rank at #28 on the TOP 100 SGO/NGO list by TheDotGood, a global nonprofit rating organization based in Geneva, Switzerland.

Reno Halomoan

Communications Manager

[email protected]

Singapore’s retail sales rose 6.1% month on month in January. This follows a -5.4% month on month change in the previous period. The latest figure shows a shift from contraction to growth. The change equals an 11.5 percentage point move between the two readings. We are seeing a significant rebound in consumer spending with the January retail sales print. This sharp reversal from the contraction we saw at the end of 2025 suggests renewed strength in the domestic economy. This kind of positive surprise should put upward pressure on Singapore-linked assets. This data reinforces the case for a stronger Singapore Dollar, especially as the Monetary Authority of Singapore has maintained its policy of gradual appreciation to combat inflation. We saw the SGD hold its ground against the US dollar for most of 2025, and this domestic strength makes a case for buying SGD call options or selling USD/SGD futures. The latest data from February 2026 showed core inflation remaining elevated at 3.5%, giving the MAS little reason to soften its stance. For equity derivatives, this points towards being long the Straits Times Index (STI). The strength is particularly good for consumer discretionary and banking stocks, which benefit directly from higher transaction volumes. We should consider buying call options on the STI or on baskets of retail-focused companies, anticipating that this momentum will carry through the first quarter. However, we must consider that the January surge was likely boosted by spending ahead of the Lunar New Year. We need to watch the February data closely to confirm if this is a sustainable trend or just a seasonal blip. Looking back at 2025, we saw a similar, though less pronounced, festive spending boost that moderated by March. Given the uncertainty, an increase in implied volatility on the STI is expected. This presents an opportunity to structure trades that benefit from price movement, such as long straddles, if we believe the market is underpricing the potential for a larger move. Alternatively, for those who are more cautious, now is a good time to buy puts on the index as a hedge against a potential pullback if the global economic slowdown starts to impact Singapore more deeply.

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Gold prices in the United Arab Emirates rose on Thursday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at AED 610.27 per gram, up from AED 606.28 on Wednesday. The price per tola increased to AED 7,118.37 from AED 7,071.56 a day earlier. Other listed prices were AED 6,102.94 for 10 grams and AED 18,981.52 per troy ounce.

UAE Gold Price Snapshot

FXStreet converts international gold prices into AED using the USD/AED rate and local measurement units. The figures are updated daily using market rates at the time of publication, and local prices may differ. Central banks are the largest holders of gold. They added 1,136 tonnes worth around $70 billion to reserves in 2022, according to the World Gold Council, the highest annual total on record. Gold prices often move opposite to the US Dollar and US Treasuries and can also move against risk assets. Price drivers include geopolitical events, recession fears, interest rates, and changes in the US Dollar, as gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). The recent rise in gold prices reflects its role as a safe-haven asset during turbulent times. We have seen lingering geopolitical tensions and concerns over global growth carry over from late 2025, prompting investors to seek stability. This environment suggests considering bullish positions on the precious metal.

Key Drivers To Watch

Central bank demand remains a powerful floor for prices, a trend we saw solidify after their record purchases back in 2022. Data showed that global central banks continued to be net buyers throughout 2025, adding over 950 tonnes to their reserves. This sustained institutional buying pressure is a key factor supporting higher prices moving into the second quarter of 2026. The inverse relationship with the US Dollar is currently providing a tailwind for gold. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has softened to around the 101 mark after inflation proved stickier than expected in late 2025, leading the Federal Reserve to signal a pause on rate hikes. This makes non-yielding gold a more attractive asset for traders to hold. For derivative traders, this situation supports strategies that profit from rising prices and increased volatility. Buying call options on gold futures or related ETFs offers a way to gain upside exposure with a defined risk. This could be an effective way to speculate on continued positive momentum through the coming weeks. We must also monitor the inverse correlation with risk assets. The S&P 500’s strong performance in January and February 2026 has shown some signs of stalling, and any significant downturn in equities could trigger a further flight to safety into gold. Conversely, a surprise economic boom or unexpectedly hawkish central bank statements would challenge this bullish outlook. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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NZD/USD held near 0.5950 in Asian trading on Thursday, keeping Wednesday’s gains. The pair stayed firm as the US Dollar paused, with the US Dollar Index struggling to add to Tuesday’s three-month high of 99.68. The US Dollar eased after a New York Times report said Iran was willing to hold talks with the US to end a war now in its sixth day. The report said operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence contacted the CIA indirectly with an offer to discuss terms, citing officials briefed on the outreach.

Geopolitical Headlines Support Safe Haven Demand

Iran later denied the report and said it would continue the war with Israel and the US. Precious metals remained strong, pointing to continued demand for safety in markets. In US data, private sector jobs rose by 63K in February, above estimates of 50K and January’s 11K. Markets are watching February Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday for more detail on US employment. The New Zealand Dollar was broadly flat, with attention on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy outlook. The US Dollar’s strength is the main story, and we see the pause mentioned as temporary. Recent data from February 2026 showed Nonfarm Payrolls adding a robust 210,000 jobs, beating expectations and signaling a resilient US labor market. This keeps the Federal Reserve on a hawkish path, making bets against the dollar risky for now.

Strategy Ideas For Trading NZDUSD Volatility

On the other side, the New Zealand economy is showing signs of slowing down. We saw in the last report that GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 was a meager 0.1%, giving the Reserve Bank of New Zealand very little reason to consider rate hikes. This growing divergence in economic performance between the US and New Zealand puts fundamental downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair. We must also consider the persistent geopolitical tensions that can cause sharp, unpredictable moves. We all remember how the market reacted to the Iran/US headlines back in late 2025, causing a sudden flight to safety that temporarily weakened the US Dollar. These flare-ups create volatility, which presents opportunities for options traders. Given this backdrop, we see value in buying NZD/USD put options with expiration dates in late March or early April. This strategy allows us to profit from the expected decline in the pair while capping our potential losses if a geopolitical event causes an unexpected rally. Look for strike prices around the 0.5850 level as a potential target. The underlying theme is an increase in market nervousness, even with strong US data. The VIX, the market’s fear gauge, has been creeping up from its lows of late 2025, recently trading near 18.5. Using derivatives to trade this rising volatility directly could also be a prudent strategy over the next few weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said global economic resilience is being tested by a new conflict in the Middle East. She said that if the conflict is prolonged, it could affect energy prices, market sentiment and inflation. She said the conflict could place new demands on policymakers worldwide. She also said the IMF has warned its members that uncertainty is now the new normal.

Global Economy Faces Prolonged Uncertainty

Georgieva said the global economy could be entering a prolonged period of flux. She linked this risk to ongoing geopolitical tensions and their possible knock-on effects. With global economic resilience being tested, we must prepare for a prolonged period of uncertainty. This new conflict will likely drive significant market volatility in the coming weeks. For derivative traders, this means focusing on instruments that thrive on price swings and hedging portfolio risk. The most direct impact will be on energy prices, which affects everything else. Brent crude futures for May delivery have already jumped over 8% this week, crossing the $110 per barrel mark for the first time since late 2024. Traders should consider buying call options on oil futures or on energy sector ETFs to capitalize on further expected price increases. Market sentiment is deteriorating, creating a classic flight-to-safety environment. We’ve seen the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, surge to 28.5, a level we haven’t seen since the regional banking scare back in 2025. Buying VIX call options is a direct way to profit from this rising market fear.

Positioning Trades For Volatility And Policy Risk

This shock to energy will fuel inflation, placing new demands on policymakers. Implied inflation expectations from the 5-Year TIPS spread have widened by 30 basis points in just ten days, suggesting the market believes the Federal Reserve may have to delay planned rate cuts. This makes interest rate futures and options on bond ETFs critical tools for positioning against shifting monetary policy. We can look back at the market reaction in 2022 when similar geopolitical events caused an energy crisis. The initial spike in volatility was followed by a sustained period of inflation that reshaped central bank policy for over a year. History suggests this is not a short-term event, and initial positions should be structured with a multi-month view. Given the potential for a broad market downturn, hedging existing equity exposure is now paramount. We are using put options on major indices like the S&P 500. This provides a clear defensive position against the combined risks of higher inflation and geopolitical instability. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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AUD/USD fell to about 0.7065 in Asian trading on Thursday, with the Australian dollar weaker versus the US dollar. The move followed an unexpected narrowing in Australia’s trade surplus, while traders also watched tensions involving the US, Israel and Iran. Australia’s trade surplus narrowed to 2,631M month on month in January, below the 3,900M forecast. This came after a December surplus of 3,373M.

Trade Flows And Market Reaction

Exports fell by 0.9% month on month in January, after a 0.9% rise in the prior month (revised from 1.0%). Imports rose by 0.8% in January, after a 1.8% fall in December (revised from 0.8%). The Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained a hawkish policy stance. After the December decision, Governor Michelle Bullock said inflation concerns were central and that a rate rise was possible. In the Middle East, Israel said it was launching new strikes across Iran and against what it called Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut. Iran launched a drone attack on an Amazon data centre in Bahrain. Geopolitical risk may support demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. US weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due later on Thursday.

Shifting Policy And Commodity Drivers

We recall how Australia’s narrowing trade surplus in January 2025 put initial pressure on the AUD/USD pair. At that time, this economic weakness was countered by the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia. That fundamental tension between weak data and a hawkish central bank created significant uncertainty for us. Looking at today’s landscape in March 2026, that RBA hawkishness has since faded as global growth concerns took priority throughout last year. Australia’s trade balance is now heavily dependent on volatile iron ore prices, which have recently struggled to stay above the $115 per tonne mark amid questions over Chinese demand. This has kept a lid on any significant rallies for the Aussie dollar. On the other side of the pair, the safe-haven demand for the US dollar has been a persistent theme since the events we saw in 2025. More importantly, the Federal Reserve’s path to lower interest rates has been much slower than anticipated, with recent US core inflation data for February 2026 holding steady around 2.7%. This interest rate differential continues to favor the greenback over the Aussie. Given these dynamics, we see implied volatility in AUD/USD options as attractively priced for potential moves. Traders should consider strategies like buying straddles to position for a breakout, especially with Australian employment data and the next US CPI release on the horizon. This approach allows a position to profit from a significant move in either direction without needing to predict the specific catalyst. For those looking to manage risk on existing positions, purchasing out-of-the-money AUD put options offers a cost-effective hedge against a sudden drop below the 0.6400 level. We are also exploring currency spreads, such as being long AUD/NZD, to isolate Australia-specific factors from the dominant influence of the US dollar. This can provide a relative value play in a market driven by broader risk sentiment. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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China set a 2026 economic growth target of 4.5%–5% in an annual report delivered by Premier Li Qiang at the opening session of the National People’s Congress on Thursday. This is below the 5% growth rate achieved last year. The report said China will continue a “moderately loose” monetary policy. It also plans to support wider adoption of AI in the economy and to adjust the consumption tax.

Policy Priorities And Market Stabilization

China said it will work to stabilise the property market and curb local government debt. It also plans to prevent disorderly and wasteful investment by local governments. The report set out a goal to promote the cross-border use of the renminbi. It also said China aims to further open up its services sector. In markets, AUD/USD was last trading 0.07% lower on the day at 0.7070. It was weighed down by weak Australian trade data and China’s 2026 growth forecast. We see China’s reduced growth target as a clear signal to expect lower demand for industrial commodities. This comes after iron ore prices already showed significant weakness in the final quarter of 2025, falling over 15% on concerns about the property sector. We should therefore consider short positions on base metals like copper and aluminum futures for the coming weeks.

Options And Macro Trading Implications

The immediate drop in the Australian dollar is a direct consequence of this news, and we expect this trend to continue. The AUD/USD pair has now decisively broken below the 0.7100 support level we were watching. Buying put options on the Aussie dollar offers a defined-risk way to trade this expected weakness. For energy traders, this lower growth forecast casts a shadow over crude oil demand. The International Energy Agency’s report from last month had already projected a moderation in Chinese import growth from the levels we saw in 2025. Selling out-of-the-money call options on Brent or WTI crude could be a prudent strategy to capitalize on a potential price ceiling. The commitment to a ‘moderately loose’ monetary policy, while major Western central banks remain tight, suggests a weaker yuan. This divergence creates a clear opportunity in the currency markets. We view buying call options on the USD/CNH pair as an attractive way to position for further renminbi depreciation. Within China, the outlook for equities is mixed, creating opportunities for volatility traders. While the lower growth target is a headwind, targeted support for sectors like AI could create winners and losers. We believe selling strangles on the Hang Seng Index or FTSE A50 Index, which profits from the index staying within a range, is a viable strategy. This slowdown will have ripple effects on global equity indices with high exposure to Chinese consumption. We will be closely watching German automakers and European luxury brands, which were already reporting softer sales in China during their earnings reports for last year. Traders should consider hedging long positions in the German DAX index, as it is particularly sensitive to this dynamic. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/CAD edges down to about 1.3630 in early Asian trading on Thursday, as the Canadian Dollar strengthens. Traders are watching the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims report due later on Thursday. Higher crude oil prices support the Canadian Dollar, which often moves with oil because Canada is a major oil exporter. Oil is rising amid the US-Iran conflict and concerns about supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil Prices Lift The Canadian Dollar

US data may limit further falls in the US Dollar. The ISM Services PMI rose to 56.1 in February 2026 from 53.8, above the 53.5 forecast. The USD/CAD pair is currently facing opposing pressures, which creates a complex trading environment. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has just pushed above $95 a barrel for the first time this year, a nearly 12% rise since early February, directly strengthening the Canadian dollar. This move is largely fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. We are seeing clear signs of supply disruption risk following another naval standoff in the Strait of Hormuz last week. This is compounded by recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showing a surprise crude inventory drawdown of 3.1 million barrels, against expectations of a build. This tight supply narrative is providing a strong tailwind for oil and, by extension, the loonie. However, the US dollar is showing its own resilience, preventing a sharper fall in the currency pair. The strong ISM Services PMI report at 56.1 is now supported by last week’s Non-Farm Payrolls data, which showed the US economy added a robust 265,000 jobs in February. This consistent flow of positive data points to an American economy that is not slowing down.

Volatility Risks And Trading Approaches

Consequently, we’ve seen market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June fall significantly. The CME FedWatch tool now shows less than a 40% probability of a cut by mid-year, down from over 70% just a month ago. This expectation of higher-for-longer US rates provides a solid floor for the US dollar. This tug-of-war suggests that volatility in USD/CAD is the most likely outcome in the coming weeks. Implied volatility on one-month options has already climbed to its highest level since late 2025, meaning traders should consider strategies that profit from price movement itself, regardless of direction. Long straddles or strangles could be effective ways to position for a significant breakout. We remember how a similar oil spike in the third quarter of 2025 gave the loonie a temporary boost before tighter US monetary policy eventually won out. Therefore, while riding the oil-driven CAD strength, it is prudent to use options to hedge against a potential sharp reversal. A move back towards 1.3800 is very possible if US economic data continues to outperform and overshadow the energy markets. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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