Japan’s political shift is moving the Japanese yen. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won by a wide margin. This gives her party room to pursue bigger fiscal plans. On 8 February, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 316 of 465 seats. This is the party’s highest total in the post-war era, going back to 1955.

Two Thirds Majority And Budget Control

With a two-thirds majority, the LDP can control key House of Representatives committees, including the Budget Committee. This reduces the need to negotiate with other parties to pass budget measures. Takaichi has said she will suspend VAT on food for two years. Estimates put the cost at about JPY 5 trillion per year, or roughly 0.8% of Japan’s GDP. Markets are concerned that larger deficits could weaken Japan’s public finances. One assessment puts net debt at just under 70% of GDP, based on Japan’s broader asset position. With the LDP’s new two-thirds majority, these fiscal pledges now look highly likely. This removes political uncertainty and shifts market attention to the economic impact. The proposed JPY 5 trillion yearly VAT cut is a meaningful stimulus and will likely push the yen lower in the near term. This nervousness is already showing up in derivatives markets, with implied volatility in USD/JPY rising since the 8 February election.

Near Term Trading Implications For Yen

In the coming weeks, traders may want to position for a weaker yen. Fiscal expansion is likely to outweigh any potential tightening from the Bank of Japan. One defined-risk approach is to buy short-dated USD/JPY call options. This benefits from both a possible rise in USD/JPY and the currently higher volatility. This view is supported by late-2025 core inflation data, which showed inflation holding near 2.5%—a level this stimulus could push even higher. A similar pattern played out in the early Abenomics period in the 2010s, when fiscal stimulus helped drive a sharp yen depreciation. The market is now pricing in a test—and possibly a break—of the 160 level in USD/JPY seen last year. A sustained move above 160 could trigger a faster decline in the yen. However, the market’s fiscal fears may be overstated. While gross government debt is high (over 260% of GDP), net debt is far lower—below 70%—because Japan holds substantial government assets. This suggests recent yen weakness may be more of a short-term reaction than a long-term structural shift. That creates room for contrarian or longer-horizon trades. If the initial drop in the yen fades without a true fiscal crisis, volatility may fall. In that case, selling out-of-the-money USD/JPY calls or JPY/USD puts could be a way to collect premium, based on the view that the currency will stabilize once markets digest the net-debt picture. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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US data showed the four-week average ADP Employment Change rose to 10.3K private-sector jobs, up from 7.8K. Canada’s January CPI slowed to 2.3% year-on-year, below the 2.4% forecast and the previous reading. The US Dollar Index traded near 97.20 after hitting a one-week high of 97.54. EUR/USD held around 1.1850 after Germany’s January HICP came in as expected at 2.1%. However, February ZEW sentiment fell in both Germany and the Eurozone.

Major Fx Moves And Key Drivers

GBP/USD traded near 1.3560 and dipped after UK claimant count, employment change, and the December ILO unemployment rate signaled weaker labour market conditions. AUD/USD hovered near 0.7080 after bouncing from a five-day low following the RBA minutes. USD/CAD traded near 1.3640 after giving up earlier gains ahead of Canada’s softer CPI result. USD/JPY traded around 153.20 and was still lower on the day. Traders stayed focused on Japan’s pro-stimulus plans and the Bank of Japan’s hawkish tone. Gold traded near $4,877 and stayed below $5,000. Key upcoming events include the RBNZ rate decision, UK January CPI, and FOMC minutes (18 Feb), Australia jobs data (19 Feb), and UK retail sales, PMIs, and US December core PCE (20 Feb). Central banks bought 1,136 tonnes of gold in 2022, worth about $70 billion. This was the largest yearly purchase on record. Gold often moves in the opposite direction to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and it is priced in dollars (XAU/USD).

One Year Later Market Context

One year ago, the US Dollar Index was near 97.20 (February 2025). Now, with DXY trading around 104.50, dollar strength is the main trend traders need to respect. With January 2026 US inflation still sticky at 2.8%, options strategies that do not rely on a quick drop in the dollar may make more sense. In early 2025, markets focused on Canada’s CPI dipping to 2.3%. Since then, the bigger theme has been ongoing global price pressure. The upcoming FOMC minutes matter for the same reason they did last year: they may show how patient the Fed is willing to be. Traders may want to use derivatives to hedge volatility, because any sign of a longer “higher for longer” stance can lead to sharp moves. In February 2025, USD/JPY was near 153.20 as traders discussed a more hawkish BoJ. The BoJ later moved away from negative rates, but the wide rate gap versus the US has still pushed the pair higher, recently near 158.00. The yen carry trade remains a major driver. As a result, selling yen call options or buying USD/JPY call spreads may still appeal to some strategies. In early 2025, there were already signs the UK labour market was weakening while GBP/USD traded near 1.3560. That softness, together with sustained dollar strength, has pulled GBP/USD down to about 1.2550 today. Given this steady trend, traders may want to be careful with long pound positions and consider put options to hedge further downside. Gold struggled to regain $5,000 a year ago. Even with ongoing geopolitical risks, it has remained capped by high interest rates and a strong dollar. Central banks have kept buying, with the World Gold Council reporting another 800 tonnes added in 2025. Still, this buying has mainly provided support rather than a strong catalyst. As a result, gold derivatives depend heavily on whether a trader expects a shift in US monetary policy. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold dropped more than 3% on Tuesday as the US Dollar strengthened. Reports said US–Iran talks were making progress. XAU/USD traded near $4,869 after reaching a daily high of $5,000. The US Dollar Index rose 0.17% to 97.25. The US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.052% after falling by almost four basis points earlier. Mixed risk sentiment, higher yields, and a stronger Dollar pressured gold.

Market Drivers And Fed Expectations

Strong US jobs data and uncertainty about Federal Reserve rate cuts kept gold hovering around $5,000. ADP’s 4-week average showed job gains of 10.3K, up from a revised 7.8K. New York’s February Empire State Manufacturing Index showed better regional factory conditions. Markets reduced expected Fed cuts to 57 basis points from 62 basis points, based on CBOT data. The US and Iran started talks and agreed on key “guiding principles” during the second round in Geneva. Peace talks involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine were moved to Wednesday. Gold has posted lower highs for three straight days and hit a six-day low of $4,841. If price drops below $4,800, the next support is the 50-day SMA at $4,632. Above $5,000, resistance is at $5,100.

Options Positioning And Volatility

After gold’s sharp 3% drop yesterday, we see a potential opportunity in options. The failure to hold the key $5,000 level signals weakness. That makes bearish strategies—such as buying put options or selling call credit spreads—more appealing. The CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) jumped 9% in the last 24 hours, showing traders expect bigger price swings. Changing Fed expectations remain the main driver. Strong data cut expected rate reductions to 57 basis points from 62, helping the US Dollar regain strength. This morning’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed an unexpected 0.4% monthly rise. That supports the view that the Fed could delay easing, which typically hurts non-yielding gold. Geopolitical news is also reducing support for gold. Progress between Washington and Tehran lowers safe-haven demand. We saw a similar pattern in 2015, when comparable diplomatic efforts led to a multi-month drop in gold’s risk premium. Markets will watch the upcoming Russia–Ukraine talks closely. Any further easing of tensions could add to gold’s decline. Technically, the next key support is $4,800. A break below that level could lead to a move toward the 50-day moving average near $4,632. We would consider put options with strike prices near $4,800 to benefit from a possible breakdown. Looking ahead, the Core PCE inflation report is the most important event on the calendar. In 2025, gold moved an average of 2.1% on Core PCE release days. Volatility may be high again, so traders should be ready for sharp moves, as this data can strongly shape the Fed’s next decision. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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BNY’s Americas Macro Strategist John Velis is keeping his forecast for three Federal Reserve interest rate cuts by year-end. Market pricing points to a little more than two cuts, with the December OIS contract implying 56bp of easing. He says recent headline labour data may overstate strength because job gains in the establishment survey were concentrated in Health Care. He adds that this sector has driven nearly all job creation since 2024, leaving a narrow base for overall employment growth.

Fed Cuts Outlook

He notes that inflation has improved versus a few months ago, but it is still above the Fed’s 2% target. He also points out that inflation did not pick up in the latest month. If disinflation continues, this could weaken the case for more hawkish views on the FOMC. We are sticking with our call for three Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of 2026. That is almost one full cut more than the market is pricing. The market is currently pricing 56bp of easing, based on December OIS contracts, and we see this as a clear opportunity. This gap between our view and the market’s view is the basis for our trading strategy in the coming weeks. The strong headline jobs numbers can be misleading and may hide weakness in the labor market. In the 2025 data, most job growth was concentrated in acyclical sectors such as Health Care. That trend continued in the January 2026 report, when more than a third of job gains came from Health Care alone. This narrow base is a concern for the broader economy and supports a more dovish Fed. Recent inflation data also supports our view. Inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target, but the trend is encouraging. The January 2026 CPI report showed core inflation holding at 2.8%. That was the fourth straight month without an increase from the lows seen at the end of 2025. If this disinflation trend continues, it should weaken the arguments of more hawkish committee members.

Trading Strategy Ideas

Based on this view, traders may want to position for more Fed easing than the market currently reflects. One approach is to buy December 2026 SOFR futures, which should rise if the market starts to price in a third rate cut. Another direct way to express this view is to enter receive-fixed positions in interest rate swaps for the end of the year. The gap between our forecast and the market consensus also suggests interest rate volatility may be underpriced. If upcoming data forces the market to quickly reprice the expected path of the federal funds rate, volatility could rise. As a secondary strategy, traders could consider long-volatility positions using instruments such as swaptions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said recent US data suggests the job market is stabilising. He spoke on Tuesday at the New York Association for Business Economics in New York. Barr said it is still reasonable to expect price pressures to cool further. He also warned there is a risk inflation stays above 2%.

Fed Sees Labor Market Stabilising

Barr said the job market looks balanced, but it could still be hit by shocks. He said he wants more proof that inflation is moving back toward the 2% target. He said the outlook points to the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged for a while. He added that it is wise to take time and review the data before making any new policy move. On artificial intelligence, Barr said it should increase productivity and improve living standards over the long term. But he said the AI boom is unlikely to lead the Fed to cut rates. He said policymakers should be ready for the possibility of serious short-term disruption in the labour market, even if the long-term benefits are positive. He also said there is little evidence so far that AI is raising unemployment.

Trading Implications For Higher Rates

The Federal Reserve appears set to keep interest rates steady in the near term. Officials want clearer proof that inflation is consistently moving back to the 2% target. The January 2026 inflation report showed core inflation still high at 2.8%. That supports the Fed’s cautious approach and suggests a rate cut is not close. This backdrop may keep market volatility muted in the coming weeks. With the Fed not signalling a near-term shift, large policy-driven moves are less likely. In that setting, some traders may look at strategies that sell options premium on major indices. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has reflected this calm tone, staying mostly between 14 and 16 for much of the new year. The Fed is watching a job market it describes as stable, but exposed to surprises. The January 2026 jobs report fit that view: payrolls rose by a solid 190,000, while the unemployment rate edged up to 3.9%. The market may feel steady now, but a weaker-than-expected jobs report could quickly change rate expectations and lift volatility. In 2025, markets repeatedly priced in rate cuts that did not happen. That pattern showed the Fed does not want to ease too soon. Last year’s experience should inform today’s approach, and it argues for caution toward rallies driven mainly by hopes of a quick policy pivot. The AI story is long term and should not be mixed up with near-term Fed decisions. AI may eventually boost productivity, but the Fed is focused on current inflation and labour data. The ongoing AI boom is unlikely to push the Fed toward rate cuts anytime soon. With price pressures expected to ease but inflation risks still present, “higher for longer” strategies may still make sense. This can include using options on interest rate futures to position for a patient Fed through at least the first half of the year. Recent years also show that trading against the Fed’s stated direction has often been a difficult bet. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Elliott Wave (EW) describes market moves as repeating waves across different timeframes. It uses a “three steps forward, two steps back” structure and a fractal pattern. EW outlines a preferred price path, but that path changes if key levels break. This analysis looks at the S&P 500 advance since the November 2025 low (green W-4). That move is labelled green Wave-5 and is described as an overlapping ending diagonal (ED). We track the ED as it develops through its expected stages.

Ending Diagonal Structure

An ending diagonal has five overlapping waves: grey W-i, ii, iii, iv, and v. Each grey wave is a three-wave pattern, which creates extra overlap and complexity. The index is back near the same level as late October last year. It has tagged 6985 ten times and has held support near 6780 four times. This suggests a developing range, with: – An upside target near 7190 (6985+6985-6780) – A downside target near 6575 (6780-6985+6780) The key level is the November low at 6521. A break below 6521 would suggest the ED is complete and a larger black W-4 is underway, ideally toward 5500-6125. Holding 6780 is the third warning level. A daily close below 6780 implies a 60% chance the uptrend is over. If 6780 holds, grey W-v is projected to reach 7120-7190 into the April turn date window. If it does not hold, 6575 becomes the next level to watch.

Options Positioning Framework

With the market coiling tightly, the S&P 500 appears pinned between 6780 support and 6985 resistance. This standoff is building pressure and suggests a larger move may be close. For derivative traders, the message is to prepare for a breakout rather than assume the sideways action will continue. This long stalemate has also pushed volatility lower. The VIX recently hit a year-to-date low near 13.5. Low implied volatility makes options cheaper, which can create a good setup for breakout trades. Strategies like straddles or strangles, which benefit from a large move in either direction, look attractive here. If you expect an upside breakout, a sustained move above 6985 would be the trigger to buy calls or set up bull put spreads. The target would be the 7120-7190 zone, using April or May 2026 expirations to give the final wave time to develop. A positive RSI divergence is a small sign that bullish momentum may be building. Recent data also supports the bullish case. The January 2026 CPI report came in at 2.8%, slightly below expectations, which reduces fears of more Fed tightening. That could be the catalyst needed to push through resistance. In options, open interest is building in the 7100 and 7200 April call strikes, suggesting many traders are positioned for this outcome. On the other hand, a daily close below 6780 is the first major warning to turn bearish. That would support buying protective puts or using bear call spreads, with 6575 as the first target. If the November 2025 low at 6521 breaks, it would confirm a major top and point to a much deeper correction. We saw a similar, frustrating range in Q3 2023 before the market launched into a strong year-end rally. That period also had mixed economic signals and high uncertainty, much like today. The eventual break was sharp and directional, showing that long ranges often end with a decisive move. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/JPY was little changed on Tuesday after the US Presidents’ Day weekend. It hovered near 153.40 after dipping to about 152.70. Trading was mixed as the US Dollar struggled to extend its rebound. The Yen stayed supported as investors continued to expect a Bank of Japan rate hike in the coming months. Markets also kept a close eye on Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus policy plans.

Dollar And Yen Drivers

US data gave the Dollar some support. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 7.1 in February versus 6 expected, down from 7.7. The ADP Employment Change four-week average increased to 10.3K from a revised 7.8K (previously 6.5K). The US Dollar Index traded near 97.24 after hitting an intraday high of 97.54. Recent data showed Nonfarm Payrolls rose 130K in January versus December’s revised 48K, while unemployment ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4%. US CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3%. It eased to 2.4% year-on-year from 2.7%. Fed Governor Michael Barr said he wants more evidence that inflation is moving to 2%, and noted the jobs market is stabilising. Markets are pricing in two cuts this year, with rising odds of a third. The December dot plot showed one cut in 2026. CME FedWatch suggests the first cut could come as early as June. In Japan, the key release is Friday’s National CPI. In the US, traders will watch the Fed minutes on Wednesday, then core PCE and Q4 GDP on Friday.

What Changed Since Last Year

A year ago, USD/JPY was near 153.40. Sentiment leaned toward a stronger yen because traders expected Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes. In early 2025, the market was also pricing in at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts. The main view was that the policy gap between the US and Japan would narrow. Instead, events played out very differently. The pair is now trading around 168.50. The Federal Reserve delivered only one rate cut in late 2025 because inflation stayed sticky. The latest January 2026 CPI report showed core inflation still high at 2.8% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the BoJ’s exit from negative rates was a one-off move to 0.10% and did not give the yen lasting support. This policy divergence has pushed yen implied volatility to its highest level since 2023. That creates an opportunity for options traders. One approach is to buy volatility using structures like long straddles, which can profit from a large move in either direction. These strategies can work well when central bank policy remains uncertain. The interest rate gap is also much wider than expected last year. The US Fed Funds Rate is 5.00%–5.25% versus Japan’s 0.10%. That makes carry trades attractive, benefiting traders who are long USD and short JPY. Derivatives traders can use forward contracts or currency futures to capture this yield difference over the coming weeks. Now, focus turns to upcoming US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for clues on inflation. A stronger-than-expected result could push USD/JPY higher by delaying expectations for the next Fed cut. A weaker reading could trigger a sharp, although possibly temporary, pullback. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The United States held a 52-week Treasury bill auction with a yield of 3.345%. The previous auction yield was 3.39%. The latest yield is 0.045 percentage points lower than the prior result. This is a small drop compared with the last sale.

Lower Yield Signals Rate Cut Expectations

The lower yield on this 52-week bill suggests the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates more over the next year. This fits with the January 2026 CPI report, which showed core inflation slowing to a 2.8% annual rate. We should therefore expect a lower-rate environment. This supports our strategy of buying interest rate futures that benefit from falling rates, such as the December 2026 SOFR contract. Confidence in this view is rising. The CME FedWatch tool now shows more than a 75% chance of a rate cut by the June 2026 meeting. That is a clear change from the mood in late 2025. For equity exposure, this setup is positive for rate-sensitive technology and growth stocks, since lower rates can lift valuations by reducing the discount rate. We see an opportunity to buy call options on the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX). A cooling labor market also supports the case for easier policy. The last jobs report showed payroll growth of only 150,000, pointing to a slowing economy. Expected rate cuts may also weaken the U.S. dollar as yield gaps versus other currencies shrink. We can express this by buying put options on dollar-tracking ETFs. This would be a big shift from most of 2025, when the dollar stayed strong as the Fed held rates steady to fight stubborn services inflation. As the policy path becomes clearer, overall market volatility may fall. A more predictable Fed usually calms investors. Selling VIX futures, or selling call options on the index, could be a way to position for lower uncertainty.

Positioning For Lower Volatility

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WTI US Oil fell on Tuesday and traded near $62.50, down 1.80% on the day, while still staying within a recent range. Trading was quiet as markets waited for progress in nuclear talks between the US and Iran in Geneva. US President Donald Trump said he would be involved “indirectly” in the negotiations and said Iran seemed willing to reach a deal. Iran’s Foreign Minister said the US position on the nuclear issue had become “more realistic”.

Geopolitical Risk And Hormuz Focus

Extra US naval forces in the region, along with Iranian military drills in the Strait of Hormuz, kept geopolitical risks high. Around 20% of global crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported that OPEC+ is considering restarting output increases from April. This raised worries about more supply in the second quarter, ahead of peak summer demand in Western economies. Commerzbank said higher official targets may not fully turn into higher output because of structural limits and sanctions, including in Russia. It also said lower Russian exports to India could reduce the overall supply increase and limit downside for prices. WTI stayed range-bound as markets waited for clearer signals on diplomacy and supply.

Trading Strategy Under Elevated Volatility

WTI crude oil is now trading around $81.50, much higher than the level mentioned earlier, but the core tension in the market is unchanged. The market is caught between worries about slower global growth and ongoing geopolitical supply risks. This push and pull makes it hard to take strong directional views. In 2025, similar diplomatic signals with Iran unsettled the market, and that uncertainty remains. With nuclear talks still stalled and nearly 21% of the world’s daily oil supply moving through the Strait of Hormuz, the risk premium stays high. Any escalation could trigger a sharp price jump, which makes outright short positions risky. On the supply side, OPEC+ recently chose a modest production cut, reflecting concerns about weaker demand, especially from Asia. But questions about compliance and the real effect on physical supply have kept prices from falling much. As a result, the market looks more likely to trade in a range than start a new, lasting trend. With uncertainty high and the oil volatility index (OVX) near 35, selling options premium may be a sensible approach. Traders may consider strategies such as iron condors or strangles to benefit from time decay while the market waits for a clear catalyst. This approach aims to profit from the current indecision rather than betting on one outcome. For those expecting a breakout later, calendar spreads can offer a lower-risk way to position for it. This lets traders take advantage of short-term premium decay while holding a longer-dated option that could gain if a clearer trend develops in the months ahead. It is a patient approach in a market that is acting impatient. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The DJIA fell about 120 points (0.24%) on Tuesday. The S&P 500 dropped about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite slid about 0.8%. The Dow and S&P 500 have declined in four of the past five weeks. The Nasdaq started this week after five straight weekly losses. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to around 4.03%, a two-month low, after Friday’s cooler-than-expected CPI report. Tech shares were weaker. Salesforce fell about 2.5%, and CrowdStrike dropped more than 2% after a Mizuho rating cut.

Tech And Industrials Slide

Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom also traded lower. Chevron fell 2.6% and Caterpillar dropped 2.1%. Travelers rose 1.8%, Visa gained 1.5%, and Apple added 1%. Danaher fell about 6% after agreeing to buy Masimo for $180 per share in an all-cash deal valued at about $9.9 billion. The offer is a 38% premium to Masimo’s Friday close. Masimo shares rose about 34%. The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2026. Warner Bros Discovery rose more than 2% after reopening talks with Paramount Skydance, which was up about 3%. A seven-day waiver runs through 23 February. Paramount may raise its all-cash offer to at least $31 per share from $30. Netflix’s $83 billion enterprise-value deal remains in place. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at 7.1 versus 6 expected, compared with 7.7 in January. FOMC minutes are due Wednesday. Markets are pricing in about two 25-basis-point cuts by year-end, with June seen as the most likely first cut. Friday brings PCE and preliminary Q4 GDP. Palo Alto Networks reports with revenue expected at $2.58 billion and adjusted EPS at $0.94, after beating revenue estimates in every quarter for two years.

Options And Volatility Strategy

With the Nasdaq posting five straight weekly declines entering this week, tech is clearly under pressure. Traders may consider buying puts on tech-heavy indices like the QQQ to hedge portfolios or seek gains if markets fall further. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has climbed to 19.5, up from the low teens seen in late 2025, which points to higher expected volatility. Worries about how AI may reshape software and hardware are also pressuring sentiment. Buying puts on stocks like Salesforce (CRM) and Nvidia (NVDA) may still make sense as investors question high valuations. Year-to-date, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) is down nearly 8%, and the downtrend may continue through month-end. This week’s FOMC minutes and PCE data are key for rate-sensitive trades. With the 10-year yield near two-month lows, call options on Treasury ETFs like TLT could offer a way to position for even lower yields. The CME FedWatch tool now shows a 75% probability of a rate cut by the June meeting, and Friday’s inflation data will be a major test of that view. M&A news is also raising volatility in certain names after a slower deal environment in 2025. With the Warner Bros and Paramount talks creating uncertainty, a straddle on Paramount (PSKY) could benefit from a large move in either direction. Danaher’s (DHR) pullback after announcing the acquisition could also be traded with puts if investors continue to focus on the high premium paid for Masimo. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reports after the bell, creating a clear options event. Given the stock’s pattern of beating estimates and the current anxiety in tech, a large move is possible. The options market is pricing in an 11% post-earnings move, which makes a long straddle a way to trade volatility rather than direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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