Crude oil futures closed at $68.45, which is a rise of $1.88 or 2.82%. Over the week, prices went up by $2.13, marking a 3.2% increase. This happened even with an unexpected boost in OPEC+ production of 548,000 barrels at the start of the week. Midweek, OPEC+ discussed pausing any future output increases, taking a more cautious approach. The EIA reported a surprising increase of 7 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories, which usually would lower prices. However, declines in gasoline and distillate stocks helped stabilize the market. Additionally, sanctions on Russia contributed to increasing prices, and former President Trump’s upcoming statement on Monday added to the market’s anticipation. On a technical level, oil prices climbed above the 200-day moving average of $68.35. During the last three sessions, crude traded above this line during the day but didn’t finish above it until today. The market closed near its highs, setting up oil to end the week well above the 200-day MA, suggesting a positive trend for next week. This article highlights the recent rise in crude oil futures, which finished the week at $68.45 per barrel, climbing nearly $2 for the day and just over $2 for the week. This price rise is notable because it defied expectations after OPEC+ increased production by 548,000 barrels, which would typically push prices down. However, midweek discussions hinted at slowing future production increases, easing concerns about oversupply. At the same time, U.S. inventory data was surprising. The EIA reported a sharp increase of 7 million barrels in crude stocks, usually a bearish sign. Yet, declines in gasoline and distillate inventories shifted market focus and softened this impact. Sanctions on Russia also added support to the pricing, while the market anticipated comments from Trump on Monday, boosting sentiment further. A key indicator was that the price closed above the critical 200-day moving average, previously at $68.35. Although oil prices stayed above this line during earlier sessions, they only closed above it for the first time today. This finish stands out, especially since it’s near the session high, and it suggests a stronger outlook moving forward. For those tracking derivatives, closing above a long-term moving average often attracts trend-following buyers. Monday may see follow-through buying now that this barrier has been cleared. Typically, prices above this average draw in more determined trading. With the strong finish and recent resistance to usually bearish data and unexpected supply increases, market sentiment has turned bullish. We can expect more activity focused on call options with near-term expiries, particularly if the market opens at or above Friday’s close. We should avoid betting against this strength early in the week, especially during European trading hours, and look for momentum trades based on this sustained close above $68.35. If prices stabilize above the moving average, volatility might decrease. Last week’s behavior indicates that new highs may face less resistance than before. Instead of expecting large corrections, it makes sense to target options slightly above recent highs. Timing exits around inventory data may lose effectiveness, so it’s better to pay attention to technical patterns and reactions to major news like sanctions or policy discussions.

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Australian CFTC AUD NC net positions have dropped to $-74.3K, a decrease from $-70.1K. This change highlights a shift in how the market feels. The EUR/USD pair is staying below the 1.1700 level due to uncertainty about a trade deal between the EU and the US. There’s ongoing demand for the US Dollar, which is putting additional pressure on this currency pair.

Meme Coins Set for Gains

Meme coins like Bonk, Dogwifhat, and Floki are likely to gain ground as Bitcoin hits a new all-time high. This marks a recovery for meme coins, riding on the positive trend alongside Bitcoin. Gold is trading near two-week highs at $3,360 per troy ounce due to increased demand as a safe-haven asset. This demand arises from ongoing trade uncertainties affecting market feelings. The GBP/USD has dipped below 1.3500, reaching three-week lows as the British pound struggles. Weak UK GDP data and a strong US Dollar are pushing this decline. In the coming week, the CPI data release and China’s GDP will be crucial market movers amid trade tensions. US inflation figures could affect expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in July.

Market Sentiment

Traders have reduced their net short positions on the Australian Dollar, with a drop from -70,100 contracts to -74,300. This indicates a cooling in previous bearish sentiment, but not a shift to optimism. Traders have lowered their risk exposure, likely due to softer data or improved sentiment around commodities. This might reflect uncertainty rather than strong beliefs, often seen before a breakout or trend continuation. Keep an eye on changes in Chinese demand, as it impacts AUD sentiment. The euro-dollar pair remains under pressure below 1.1700 mainly due to hesitance in trade talks between the US and Europe. Additionally, a strong US Dollar continues to weigh on the euro. This situation reflects doubts about European economic recovery and ongoing demand for US assets. With no immediate resolution or new policy guidance, prices may remain stable. Volatility could increase with any unexpected news or data shifting the narrative on transatlantic trade. We are observing meme coins show signs of recovery following Bitcoin’s sharp rise. The positive trend for tokens like Bonk, Dogwifhat, and Floki is fueled not by fundamentals, but by the speculative flow accompanying all-time highs in the broader crypto market. This often indicates high liquidity and risk appetite. While generally not tied to economic factors, participating wisely in these cycles can provide opportunities, as long as traders manage their exposure carefully and accept the associated volatility risks. Gold prices are holding steady near recent highs, around $3,360 per ounce. This strength mainly comes from risk hedging and a flight to safe-haven assets amid ongoing trade disputes. Global investors are seeking stability in uncertain growth conditions, leading to increased investments in gold. Notably, this surge is not only related to inflation concerns, but also reflects anxiety about political and trade developments. The British pound is weakening, with GBP/USD dropping below the 1.3500 mark, marking a three-week low. This decline is due to a mix of poor UK economic data and a robust US Dollar. Recent GDP figures indicate slowing momentum in the UK economy, while the US Dollar is well-supported by stable economic performance and solid yields. Without significant improvements in UK data or dovish actions from the Fed, the pound may remain pressured. Looking ahead, US inflation data and new GDP figures from China will be key volatility triggers. These frequent data points could have widespread implications for rate expectations and dollar-related exchanges. If US consumer prices show signs of easing, it might increase expectations for a possible July rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Conversely, strong readings could lead markets to cut back on dovish expectations quickly. We will also closely monitor Chinese GDP for insights into regional demand and global growth momentum. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Federal Reserve’s Goolsbee discussed the current economic situation, noting that a few more months of positive inflation reports could support a hopeful outlook. He wants to wait until there’s less anxiety before confirming that the US economy is on the right track to recovery. There are worries about rising prices and the effects of new tariffs, which make it harder to assess the economy. Goolsbee mentioned that these latest tariff threats might delay any interest rate cuts.

Podcast Discussion and Market Impact

In a podcast with Moody’s and an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Goolsbee made remarks likely to affect the markets. Right now, the market sees a 68% chance of a rate change in September, but the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report next week will be key for future decisions. Goolsbee’s insights suggest that rate decisions depend on whether inflation data over the next two or three months shows a consistent downward trend. The message was clear: we’re not there yet, and policy shifts rely on the data. Markets are expecting a rate cut and have priced in a greater chance by September. However, as Goolsbee pointed out, this depends almost entirely on inflation behaving—without unexpected surprises, especially from policies or tariffs. If inflation reports this summer show declines in key areas like energy, shelter, and core goods, policymakers might feel ready to ease monetary policy later this year. But this approach is conditional. The emphasis on “a few more months” signals a clear threshold. The committee will likely need at least three consecutive reports showing steady or improving inflation before gaining confidence. This hesitation reflects a broader concern: discussing rate cuts might stir market expectations that get ahead of the actual data. If cuts are priced in too quickly, it could ease financial conditions prematurely, putting pressure on inflation to stay high. The tariffs add another layer of uncertainty. While not quantified yet, the mere announcement could dampen the committee’s willingness to ease rates in the short term. New tariffs often raise import prices, which could impact broader economic indices.

Current Stance and Market Readiness

We interpret this as a short-term hold strategy—not just on actual rate changes but also in the tone of policy. The recent market adjustments indicate that this nuance is starting to register, but not completely. Goolsbee’s repeated calls for a cooling-off period suggest a cautious balancing act: enough patience to lower rates without jeopardizing the gains made so far. Looking ahead to the upcoming Consumer Price Index report—this release needs to meet expectations and avoid surprises in key subcategories. Medical services, rent, and food costs will be under special scrutiny. A favorable update won’t just mean a low number, but also a broad-based result free from temporary distortions. If these areas show any signs of change, expectations for September might need to be adjusted sooner rather than later. We see the current stance as more reactive than proactive, placing the focus on the data for decision-making. The latest signals convey neither optimism nor pessimism, but rather a conditional readiness. This reinforces a point some may have missed in previous communications: the threshold for action remains high. In this context, recent comments should not be interpreted as hints for easy rate cuts but as guidelines for what is needed before regaining confidence. The market’s 68% probability reflects hope but not certainty. With volatility responding to each data release, a steady approach will be essential in handling these announcements. Traders should keep their pricing models flexible and base their assumptions on month-to-month developments rather than long-term forecasts. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The AUD/USD pair is currently below the 0.6600 resistance level, as market signals are mixed. The Australian Dollar benefits from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) strong stance, while traders await clarity on when the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut rates. The 0.6600 level acts as a psychological barrier, preventing significant price movements as traders look for fundamental factors that could favor the bulls. The Fed’s stance remains firm, with focus on the timing of potential rate cuts.

Reserve Bank Of Australia’s Stance

The Reserve Bank of Australia is committed to keeping the economy strong, maintaining the cash rate at 3.85%, which some see as a hawkish move. Australia’s limited dependence on US trade tariffs also supports the AUD. Currently, AUD/USD is consolidating near 0.6600, forming a rising wedge pattern since April. Several technical indicators suggest potential upward movement if a breakout occurs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows bullish momentum, indicating potential for growth. A sustained break above 0.6600 could test higher Fibonacci retracement levels. If resistance holds, the pair might drop to around 0.6500. The stalling of the AUD/USD pair just under 0.6600 signals a moment of reflection, as different forces push against each other. On one side, the RBA’s decision to keep the cash rate steady supports the Aussie Dollar. This stability reflects their focus on managing domestic price pressures and sustaining growth amid global uncertainties. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell and his colleagues seem hesitant to indicate when or if they might loosen policies. This situation leaves the currency pair in a tight range, with traders eager for any hint that might shift the balance. Without clear guidance from the Fed, the US Dollar lacks direction, allowing the AUD some breathing space—though not enough to gain momentum. This dynamic is evident around the 0.6600 level, where the pair continues to hover.

Potential Breakout And Trading Implications

Since April, price action has formed a rising wedge—often seen as a consolidation phase before a breakout. As this wedge develops, the space for movement narrows, potentially leading to a stronger price shift when the pattern resolves. This shift may not be dramatic, but it could create clearer trading opportunities. The RSI remains above neutral, indicating no immediate need to reduce long positions as long as prices stay above nearby support. Traders focusing on short-term flows should stay agile, but not overly cautious. If the pair breaks above 0.6600—with strong volume—there may be opportunities for gains, possibly targeting retracement levels that correspond with previous price reactions. These levels can assist in setting stop placements and scaling decisions. Conversely, failing to breach this resistance soon could create negative sentiment, pulling the pair back down to test the 0.6500 level, which has been a support area in the past. With China’s trade data coming soon and no clear direction from the Fed, we may see sudden price swings ahead. For now, it’s wise to watch implied volatility in short-dated options around the 0.6600 mark and adjust strategies accordingly. Trend-followers might want to wait for confirmation through daily closes outside the wedge pattern rather than guessing the movement, which carries risk. In summary, those trading derivatives should prioritize their approach over guesses: maintain tight positioning with flexible strategies. The overall macro environment still supports mild strength for the Aussie, but without confirmation, the pair could stay directionless longer than ideal. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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MUFG Research recommends buying EUR/GBP as part of its Trade of the Week. They are targeting a price of 0.8850, with a stop loss at 0.8350. The current exchange rate is 0.8650. According to MUFG, the risks for the GBP are increasing, backed by recent stability in prices. The EUR/GBP rate has stayed above 0.8600 longer than it has since late 2023 or early 2024. The GBP recently weakened due to worries about the UK’s public finances. Possible tax hikes this autumn could impact both business and household spending, leading to slow growth in the third quarter. MUFG clearly anticipates the euro will strengthen against the pound in the short term. Their strategy of going long on EUR/GBP aims to benefit from further increases, targeting 0.8850. The stop at 0.8350 provides some leeway to avoid exiting early due to minor price changes. Currently, with the price at about 0.8650, this entry point is close to the market level and ready for action without needing a pullback. MUFG’s reasoning includes concerns about the UK’s fiscal situation. There is growing pressure on tax promises, discussions of possible higher taxes later this year, and investor unease. This uncertainty around future growth suggests higher taxes may lead households and businesses to cut back on spending, potentially leading to weaker recovery in the third quarter. This isn’t just guesswork—it reflects real hints from officials and declining economic indicators. Martin and his team at MUFG also point to price trends as key support for their view. The fact that EUR/GBP has remained above 0.8600 for a significant time indicates the market is reevaluating interest rate expectations alongside fiscal credibility. This stability in price hasn’t been seen since last year, which is notable. For those looking to trade in the short term, now is not the time to bet against the current trend. The price structure above 0.8600 remains strong. The suggested risk management strategy—with a generous stop loss below 0.8350—provides room for potential volatility, especially with upcoming UK data that could cause market shifts. The Bank of England may stay cautious on interest rates if political uncertainties and weak spending continue. All eyes will be on Bailey’s next comments for clues. Currently, data does not support buying into a rebound for the pound. Instead, the trend leans toward selling the pound rather than building up support. Recent UK reports have a bearish tone, and there’s no fresh optimism to change that. Simply cooling inflation hasn’t restored investor confidence, as real incomes remain stagnant and consumer demand is weaker than usual. In this environment, short-term futures suggest more risks for the sterling. Implied volatility is steady, making protective positions appealing. Traders in options might find better value in calls if they already hold long EUR/GBP positions. Even forward prices are slightly widening, hinting at anticipated euro strength going forward. Overall, the focus should be on where the information leads rather than hoping for a rebound. Holding a position in this direction appears to be well-supported for now.

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**Gold Prices Rise Due to Trade Policy Changes** Gold prices increased almost 1% as the market reacted to new US trade policies. The current XAU/USD price is $3,354, recovering from a low of $3,322. This rise followed President Trump’s decision to impose 35% tariffs on Canadian goods and potential new tariffs on other trading partners. Currently, the US economic calendar is light, but Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee emphasizes job growth and price stability instead of rate cuts. Upcoming US data includes the June Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Sales, and Jobless Claims, as well as talks from Federal Reserve officials before the blackout period starting July 19. Despite ongoing trade tensions, the US Dollar remains strong, with expected weekly gains. Additionally, Trump announced 50% tariffs on Copper and Brazilian imports, along with 10% tariffs on countries that support BRICS policies. The June CPI is forecasted to rise by 2.6% annually and 0.3% monthly, consistent with Core CPI expectations. Retail Sales are expected to hold steady at 0%, while Jobless Claims may slightly decrease. Gold prices continue their upward trend, surpassing $3,350, with the potential to challenge $3,400 and beyond. Gold has historically been a safe haven and a store of value, especially during uncertain times and adverse economic conditions. Its negative correlation with the US Dollar and interest rates makes it a vital asset in times of geopolitical or economic instability. **Economic Indicators and Gold Market Sentiment** Gold prices recently jumped by almost 1% due to trade tensions following high US tariffs. The current price is about $3,354 per ounce, up from a session low of $3,322. This increase reflects concern over the effects of President Trump’s 35% tariffs on Canadian exports and potential duties on other trading partners. The market is cautious as these protectionist actions could disrupt established trade flows. Additionally, new tariffs on Brazilian exports and copper imports introduce complex factors affecting the market. The additional 10% tariffs on countries aligned with BRICS prompt a reevaluation of exposure in commodity-sensitive and import-reliant sectors. Gold prices tend to respond ahead of broader economic indicators, as buyers seek safety amid tariff escalations. Looking forward, attention will be on upcoming US economic reports, although there is limited data available. Market participants are interested in how Goolsbee frames the Federal Reserve’s priorities. He highlights the importance of the job market and controlling inflation rather than suggesting rate changes. Those involved in trading rate-sensitive assets may need to shift their focus elsewhere for the time being. The upcoming reports on CPI, Retail Sales, and Jobless Claims are expected to influence short-term market trends more than long-term sentiment. The CPI is expected to show a steady 2.6% annual increase and a 0.3% monthly rise, indicating persistent inflationary pressure. If retail sales remain flat, it would suggest that consumer confidence is cautious, possibly due to price-sensitive households reducing discretionary spending. A slight decrease in Jobless Claims may not significantly change the overall economic picture, but it could affect short-term demand for the dollar. The US dollar remains strong, attracting bids despite trade uncertainties. This reflects both solid US economic performance and confidence in the dollar’s stability amid industrial challenges. The dollar’s strength is currently a counterbalance to dollar-denominated assets like gold. Nevertheless, gold is likely to continue its upward trend, showing that its price movement isn’t just based on foreign exchange trends. If gold breaks through $3,400 decisively—especially amid risk-off sentiment and soft economic data—there could be sustained buying interest beyond current levels. Its historical role in preserving purchasing power is particularly valuable during politically volatile times or periods of inflation. Gold is traditionally seen as a defensive asset because of its negative correlation with rising yields and a stronger currency, although this relationship appears to be weakening recently, possibly indicating deeper investor concerns. **Factors Influencing Gold and Currency Trends** For those engaged in directional trades or volatility strategies, the combination of trade disruptions, persistent inflation, and tight monetary signals creates valuable short-term opportunities. Gold’s strength suggests that investors are hedging not only against inflation but also against uncertainties in international cooperation and the impact of tariffs. With the Federal Reserve entering a communication blackout on July 19, the next few sessions could see significant market reactions to any unexpected news. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US Dollar rose on Friday as global trade tensions increased from US tariff threats. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Dollar against major currencies, stayed stable during the American session but ended the day up by 0.30%. It’s poised to gain more than 0.8% for the week, although it runs into resistance at certain technical points. The US has issued tariff warnings to over 20 countries, including Canada, Japan, and South Korea, with tariffs ranging from 15% to 50%. Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1, claiming trade imbalances. This move is intended to encourage Canada to finalize a new trade deal by July 21, following earlier discussions between Trump and Canadian officials.

Trade Tensions and Economic Impacts

In 2024, the US’s main trading partners, the EU and Canada, imported over $600 billion and $400 billion in US goods, respectively. The 10-year US Treasury yield stabilized at 4.36%, reflecting cautious sentiment amid these trade tensions. While expectations for Fed interest rate cuts have faded, the US Dollar remains strong due to a robust labor market and lower-than-expected jobless claims. US Fed officials noted that tariffs may not significantly raise consumer prices, with limited inflation impacts seen so far. The Fed’s decisions depend on data, and the upcoming US CPI report on July 15 could affect market direction. Analysts expect a 0.3% month-on-month increase, which could change rate cut expectations and influence the US Dollar. The US Dollar is solidifying its recent gains amid trade uncertainty and stable fixed income. The market seems to be pricing in trade risks without a clear direction. The Dollar’s movement was muted during the US session on Friday, but early positioning indicated that traders were more focused on protection than opportunity. A 0.30% daily increase in the Dollar Index may seem small, but in a quiet session with nearby resistance levels, it shows cautious optimism rather than widespread confidence. Trump’s announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian goods is still weeks away, but it has already affected risk assets. He has previously used trade threats; however, this time the urgency to finalize a new trade agreement is more pronounced given the July 21 deadline. While this strategy seeks to enhance negotiation leverage, markets tend to react before deadlines actually arrive. Fixed income traders are also aware of the geopolitical landscape. The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.36% reflects selective capital movements rather than a relaxed market, keeping yields steady amidst safe-haven interest and decreasing Fed easing expectations. Soft US jobless claims have tempered aggressive policy shift projections, as the labor market remains strong.

Trading Strategies and Market Outlook

For those trading rate-sensitive instruments, the focus should shift to the July 15 CPI report. If it shows a rise above the consensus of 0.3%, it could lower the likelihood of near-term rate cuts, boosting the Dollar further. A softer report might lead to adjustments in interest rate futures, which currently expect only minimal policy changes later this year. Recent sessions have changed how traders view inflation in light of tariffs. Discussions within the Federal Reserve suggest that the price pressures from trade actions remain low. This allows them to maintain a careful stance. However, this outlook depends heavily on the CPI staying close to expectations. If the CPI diverges, especially with signs of long-lasting price pressures, the assumption of limited impact will need to be reconsidered. Tactically, focusing on short-to-intermediate positions seems wise. Traders should prepare for the CPI release by planning for both potential outcomes. The Dollar Index is nearing resistance levels close to recent highs—if it breaks through and stays above this range, momentum strategies may kick in soon. Trade desks should watch yen and euro pairings closely, as recent positioning imbalances have occurred. If the US does not immediately expand its tariff scope, these pairs could stabilize. However, this opportunity is narrow and relies on the trade rhetoric either escalating or quieting down in the next 10 to 14 days. There is little room for complacency. While implied volatility is currently below long-term averages, the upcoming data and global reactions to US trade actions could rapidly change this landscape. Holding optionality, both literally and figuratively, is more critical than ever. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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In the first quarter of 2025, COFER data showed that reserve managers sold a large amount of Japanese yen (JPY) and Australian dollar (AUD). On the other hand, Swiss franc (CHF) holdings increased significantly. This suggests that reserve managers still see the CHF as a safe option amid global uncertainties. Global foreign exchange reserves continued to keep a steady portion of US dollars (USD), highlighting its strong role in reserve portfolios. However, the notable drop in JPY and AUD holdings indicates ongoing outflows. The outlook for the Euro (EUR) is mixed. While there is still some caution among reserve managers, a recent survey indicates growing optimism regarding the EUR. This could lead to increased inflows in the future. Although there is some hesitation towards the Euro, this potential positive shift could help strengthen its role in global reserves. The consistent preference for USD, along with the changes in JPY, AUD, and CHF holdings, reflects the current trends in reserve management. The article discusses how institutions managing currency reserves made significant changes early in 2025. They cut back on Japanese yen and Australian dollar holdings while increasing their investments in Swiss franc. This suggests that these institutions are becoming more cautious about currencies that might be more affected by economic changes or unpredictable policies. At the same time, they are favoring currencies that tend to retain value during uncertain times. The dollar remains the top choice as reserve managers stay committed to it despite changes elsewhere. The outlook for the Euro isn’t entirely negative either. There is still some hesitation, but early survey data shows signs of improving sentiment. If this optimism translates into action, we could see its share in global reserves rise again. For now, however, the focus is on stability rather than experimentation. In the coming weeks, those trading interest rate products or betting on currency changes will need to adjust their risk expectations immediately. We must adapt to flow changes and positioning. The outflows from yen and AUD indicate lower demand for those currencies from big conservative investors. This decreases pricing support and makes them more vulnerable during volatile periods. We might consider updating our hedging strategies, perhaps using more aggressive options for scenarios where interest rate changes or risk sentiments shift sharply. With the Swiss franc gaining popularity, we should pay attention to demand-driven rallies that aren’t solely linked to Swiss economic data. Price movements can occasionally appear disconnected from interest rate differences. Historically, these shifts have indicated changes in global protective flows. The premium pricing of the CHF may continue into the second quarter, so we should be cautious about betting against this strength. Regarding the dollar, its steady role in reserve portfolios means we should be careful with strategies that short the dollar based on mean reversion alone. Even if the Fed becomes less aggressive later this year, just betting against the dollar too early could backfire without significant support. Any pullback will likely require a strong narrative catalyst, not just signs of lower inflation or dovish speeches. There may be better opportunities with options markets compared to outright spot positions. As for the Euro, if sentiment is indeed turning positive, the volatility pricing in EUR-crosses might not accurately reflect all possible outcomes. We could see underappreciated tightening in near-term volatility if repositioning occurs over the summer. For now, it’s a time to wait and see, but we shouldn’t overlook the idea that risks around the Euro may have lessened, opening possibilities for calendar trades or selective bullish positions in longer time frames. Overall, we are witnessing a shift in behavior from the most conservative financial players, which often influences others. This shift should guide our own risk placements, especially in areas where macro trends and structural flows intersect.

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The EUR/CHF pair is currently trading near its recent low, between 0.9300 and 0.9430. Right now, it sits around 0.9313, showing slight declines for both the day and the week, with limited buying interest amid some bearish momentum. The pair has traded sideways since May, showing no clear trend. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a potential downward movement as the price approaches the lower band. If the price falls below 0.9300, it could lead to more selling, possibly targeting support levels at 0.9250 or 0.9200. The RSI is at 41.83, indicating a mild bearish trend but still allowing for further declines. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 22.28, suggesting that a breakout may be coming. For a positive change, the price needs to rise above 0.9350. If it challenges the 0.9400-0.9430 resistance area, it could change the market’s direction. Until then, the EUR/CHF pair may drop below critical support levels if Euro sentiment weakens. In recent weeks, the EUR/CHF pair has shown indecision. It remains close to its low around 0.9300 and doesn’t seem eager to rise. Sellers hold a slight advantage, but the movement is confined to a narrow range. The ongoing lack of strong direction since May indicates uncertainty in the market. Price action is narrowing, represented by the tightening Bollinger Bands. Often, this signals a larger move is coming, likely downward unless conditions change. Looking at momentum, the daily RSI is just below 42, showing a bearish lean, with room for further weakness if buying interest doesn’t emerge. Volume trends suggest minimal buying interest, with many likely waiting for a clearer signal. The ADX is around 22, indicating that a larger move could be on the horizon but it’s not certain. It doesn’t show a strong trend yet, just the possibility of one developing. The focus is on the 0.9300 level—if it breaks, further pressure could hit the 0.9250 and potentially the 0.9200 support levels. For any real upward movement, the pair needs to close above 0.9350. Ideally, it should move firmly through the 0.9400–0.9430 resistance zone, which has been difficult to surpass in recent weeks. If it remains below these levels, the downtrend may continue. The overall strength of the Euro is a key variable; if sentiment shifts towards the Franc or if risk-averse attitudes grow, it could further increase the chance of downward movement. Currently, the pair is just managing to stay afloat but shows no signs of buyer control. Short-term volatility strategies might find opportunities as the price range plays out. For now, it’s more about capitalizing on price extremes than chasing breakouts—unless those key support or resistance levels break.

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The NZDUSD pair began the week on a downward trend influenced by the 200-hour moving average at 0.6061. A peak of 0.6058 on Monday faced selling pressure, causing a slide below the 50% retracement level at 0.5982. This threshold was surpassed several times, reaching a low of 0.5975 on Wednesday, but the downward momentum did not hold. By midweek, the pair rebounded, hitting 0.6042 early Friday, just below the 200-hour moving average now at 0.6044. Sellers consistently tested the 200-hour MA throughout the week, highlighting its significance for future trades. The 100-hour moving average at 0.6006 initially acted as support, with prices fluctuating around this level recently.

Key Technical Levels

Next week, the 100-hour MA will be crucial for market sentiment. If the pair rises from this level, attention may shift back to the 200-hour MA around 0.6036–0.6044, acting as resistance. On the other hand, if the pair drops below the 100-hour MA, it could head toward 0.5982 and the previous low of 0.5975. Sellers have the upper hand with the pair mostly below the 200-hour MA, but buyers showed resilience at the 50% retracement. The moving averages set the tone for the next move, with traders on alert for a breakout. As prices hover around the 100-hour moving average late in the week, the focus shifts from immediate direction to building momentum. The market seems to hesitate at key levels, with neither buyers nor sellers maintaining control for long. This makes the early sessions next week very important. A firm hold above 0.6006 would indicate short-term bullish momentum. However, without continued movement above 0.6044, upward attempts may struggle to gain traction.

Trader Strategies Suggestion

Sellers have quickly faded rallies at the 200-hour mark, demonstrating a lack of interest in chasing higher prices unless the pair breaks and holds above that level. If the 200-hour moving average is tested again, history suggests that selling could resume. Wilkinson’s earlier observation about the failure to maintain trades below the 50% retracement midweek continues to influence short-term bias. Falling below 0.5982 would significantly alter sentiment, indicating that buyers have stepped aside. Until then, any dip below the 100-hour average should be approached cautiously. Weakness must be backed by both volume and intent. Without these factors, any drops may attract buyers, but only within the 0.5975–0.5982 range. A move below these lows would reshape risk models that have thus far anticipated failed downward extensions. When preparing positions, it’s essential to focus on both levels and the behavior around them. This responsiveness is vital for making trades in such tight ranges. The goal should be to react to where new flows enter instead of assuming they will appear. For now, the market is contained, with momentum stalling before and after key points. Traders should be careful not to chase minor breakouts. Until there’s a sustained push beyond current averages, reaction-based strategies offer better reward-to-risk setups than directional bets. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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