ICE Brent nears $70/bbl as Iran and OPEC+ cut uncertainty, countering a large US stock build
ICE Brent is close to $70/bbl. Prices are being supported by uncertainty over Iran and OPEC+ output cuts, even after a large rise in US crude stocks. Refinery margins also strengthened after reports that a Ukrainian drone hit Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery in Russia, which has 300k b/d of capacity.
OPEC kept its demand growth forecasts unchanged for 2026 and 2027 at 1.38m b/d and 1.34m b/d. OPEC+ output fell by 439k b/d month on month in January to 42.45m b/d.
TripAdvisor holiday review firm reports 4p adjusted EPS, below forecasts and down from 30p a year earlier
TripAdvisor reported Q4 earnings of $0.04 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.15. That compares with $0.30 per share a year ago (excluding non-recurring items).
The earnings surprise was -73.33%. In the prior quarter, earnings were $0.65 per share versus an expected $0.58, a +12.07% surprise.
Over the last four quarters, TripAdvisor beat consensus EPS estimates three times. Q4 revenue was $411 million for the quarter ended December 2025, which was 0.56% below the consensus estimate. Revenue was flat year over year at $411 million.
TripAdvisor has topped consensus revenue estimates once in the past four quarters. The shares are down about 16.5% year to date, compared with a 1.4% gain for the S&P 500.
Current consensus forecasts call for EPS of $0.09 on $402.02 million in revenue next quarter, and EPS of $1.87 on $1.97 billion for the current fiscal year. The Internet – Commerce industry ranks in the bottom 27% of more than 250 Zacks industries. Historically, top-half industries outperform bottom-half industries by more than 2 to 1.
Wayfair is set to report results for the quarter ended December 2025 on February 19. Expected EPS is $0.64, up 356% year over year. Revenue is expected to be $3.29 billion, up 5.4%. Over the past 30 days, the EPS estimate has been revised 5.3% lower.
TripAdvisor badly missed earnings expectations for Q4 2025. A miss this large (-73.33%) often puts near-term pressure on the stock. Volatility also looks likely, especially since the stock is already down 16.5% year to date.
This lines up with U.S. Travel Association data showing online travel bookings fell 3% in January 2026 versus the prior year. In this market, investors have been quick to punish earnings misses, and stocks that miss by a wide margin often lag for several weeks. A similar pattern could create short-term opportunities for bearish trades.
Implied volatility for March and April options has jumped above 60%, well above the 52-week average. Buying puts is a direct bearish approach, but elevated option premiums can reduce returns. Strategies like bear call spreads may work better, since they can benefit from a price cap and from volatility falling as the news gets fully priced in.
On the earnings call, management pointed to “macroeconomic headwinds impacting travel budgets,” which suggests limited near-term upside. After a major earnings miss in Q2 2024, the stock fell another 12% over the following three weeks. That history suggests any rebound may take time.
The broader Internet-Commerce sector is also out of favor. With Wayfair reporting on February 19, weak results there could weigh on the whole group. That adds to the case for a cautious or bearish view on TripAdvisor in the near term.
Gold trades flat near $5,060 as easing Fed rate-cut expectations and geopolitical strains support demand within the $5,000–$5,100 range
Gold traded near $5,060 on Thursday, staying in the $5,000–$5,100 range. It held above $5,000 even as expectations for early US rate cuts faded, while demand for safe assets stayed strong.
US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 130K in January, beating the 70K forecast and marking the strongest gain since December 2024. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.3% from 4.4%. This supports the view that the Federal Reserve may keep rates steady in the near term.
Dollar And Yields Cap Pressure
After the report, the US Dollar and Treasury yields did not keep rising. That helped reduce pressure on gold. The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded near 96.80, close to one-week lows. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid warned that rate cuts could keep inflation higher for longer, with inflation still near 3%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the funds rate is “right around neutral” and supported staying on hold. Markets still expect about 50 basis points of rate cuts this year, with the first cut most likely in June or July, according to CME FedWatch. Attention now shifts to US CPI on Friday. US-Iran tensions also remained high, with reports of plans to deploy a second US aircraft-carrier strike group to the Middle East. Technical signals point to weaker momentum: RSI is near 55 and ADX is near 8. Key support sits near $5,000 and then $4,850, while resistance stands at $5,100.Range Bound Setup And Strategy
Gold remains stuck in a tight range. It has struggled to move above $5,100, while buyers have defended the $5,000 area. Strong January job data has reduced hopes for quick Fed rate cuts, which limits upside. At the same time, US-Iran tensions continue to support prices through safe-haven demand. Recent data supports this cautious tone. Last week’s January jobs report showed 225,000 new jobs, keeping unemployment low at 3.6%. Meanwhile, the latest Consumer Price Index held firm at 3.2% year over year. Together, solid growth and sticky inflation give the Fed little reason to cut rates quickly. This backdrop supports a “higher for longer” policy approach. For derivatives traders, selling volatility may make sense in the short term. With gold pinned in a narrow band, options strategies that benefit from limited movement—such as selling straddles or strangles around $5,050—may earn income as premiums decay. The low volatility shown by the technical indicators supports this view, at least until the next major data release. Still, traders should watch next week’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales. In 2025, surprise inflation prints triggered sharp breakouts more than once. A hotter-than-expected PPI could push gold below $5,000, while a cooler print could help gold break above $5,100. Geopolitical risk also remains a key wildcard. That makes longer-dated, out-of-the-money call options a useful hedge against a sudden escalation. The late-2025 Strait of Hormuz incident is a reminder: gold jumped nearly 4% in one session. Holding low-cost upside protection may be sensible while tensions remain elevated. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Nomura’s Buckley says UK GDP limped after 2025, but the BoE and markets expect a recovery in 2026
UK GDP ended 2025 with quarterly growth of just 0.1%. Consumer spending and industrial output lagged other countries. Still, forecasts from Nomura, the Bank of England, and the wider consensus expect stronger growth from 2026 onwards.
Recent PMI readings point to firmer activity if they hold up. However, the link between PMIs and UK GDP is not exact. More clarity should come from next week’s February surveys.
Bank Of England Growth Assumptions
The Bank of England expects average growth of 0.28% quarter-on-quarter in 2026. It then sees growth rising to 0.44% in 2027 and 0.47% in 2028. These forecasts rely partly on the saving ratio falling from about 10% in 2025 to around 8% by 2028. Lower savings would support consumption and help lift growth. This matters because the Bank’s central view is that annual real post-tax labour income growth will stay below 1%. In a downside scenario in the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report, the saving ratio stays high because households remain cautious. Even in its central forecast, the Bank expects the output gap to widen this year and stay negative through the forecast period. That supports its view that inflation will be at or below target from the second half of this year and across the forecast horizon. The UK economy finished 2025 in a weak place, with barely any growth. Forecasts now point to a recovery. Recent business surveys support that view, including the January PMI, which rose to a seven-month high of 53.8. But the basis for this recovery still looks fragile.Market Positioning Implications
The Bank of England’s growth outlook depends on one key assumption: households will save less. Recent ONS data puts the saving ratio near 10% in 2025, and the Bank expects it to fall towards 8%. But in the post-pandemic period of 2022–2023, households stayed cautious for a long time. That history suggests the drop in savings is a real risk to the forecast. For interest rate traders, this creates room to position for a weaker outcome. If consumer confidence fades and savings stay high, the Bank could face pressure to cut rates later this year to support growth. One way to express this view is through short-sterling or SONIA futures that would benefit if expected interest rates fall. This uncertainty also argues for a more defensive stance in equities. The FTSE 250 is more exposed to the domestic UK economy and could be vulnerable if consumer spending fails to improve. Buying put options on the index can work as a hedge, or as a directional trade against the Bank’s optimistic scenario. Sterling also looks exposed if the economy underperforms. If growth does not accelerate, the pound could weaken against the dollar and the euro. Options can express this view—for example, buying GBP/USD puts can offer a relatively low-cost way to benefit if upcoming data signals continued weakness. The near-term focus is next week’s February PMI data. This should be the first major test of whether early-year optimism is holding up. A weak print would challenge the recovery story and strengthen the case for positioning defensively. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.AUD/USD rises about 0.21% to near 0.7140 after hitting 0.7147, supported by Australia’s inflation expectations
AUD/USD traded near 0.7140 on Thursday, up 0.21% after reaching a three-year high of 0.7147. It later eased as the US Dollar strengthened on solid US jobs data, but the pair stayed above 0.7100.
In Australia, consumer inflation expectations rose to 5% in February from 4.6% in January, the highest level in almost three years. This keeps the focus on possible further Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tightening.
Rba Policy Outlook
Last week, the RBA raised its key rate for the first time in more than two years, taking it to 3.85%. The central bank said more hikes are possible if inflation stays sticky, and that decisions will remain data-dependent. In the US, Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 130K in January versus 70K expected. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Job gains were mainly in healthcare, and earlier data were revised lower. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell to 227K on Thursday. This lowers expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. Markets have reduced the odds of a March cut and are now leaning more toward June. We remember that the Australian dollar was trading near three-year highs around this time in 2025, reaching 0.7147. Much of that strength came from inflation expectations rising to 5%, which increased bets that the RBA would keep hiking rates. At the time, the RBA had just lifted its key rate to 3.85%.Market Regime Shift
Now, on February 12, 2026, the outlook looks very different. Official data for Q4 2025 show Australia’s annual inflation has cooled to 3.4%. That is a clear improvement, but it is still above the RBA’s target. As a result, the RBA has paused its hiking cycle and has kept the cash rate at 4.35% for the past four months. On the other side of the pair, early-2025 worries about the US labor market did not turn into the sharp slowdown some expected. US inflation is now just under 3%, and the Federal Reserve has signaled a patient, data-driven approach. Rate cuts are not expected until at least the third quarter of this year. This is different from early 2025, when markets were pricing in much earlier Fed cuts. With both central banks now on hold, the strong trend seen in early 2025 has faded. Derivative traders may want to note that implied volatility in AUD/USD has fallen. The pair is now trading in a tighter range around 0.6650. Strategies that can benefit from range-bound prices and lower volatility—such as selling straddles or using iron condors—may fit better than buying options for large upside moves. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.USD/CAD holds near 1.3571 as cautious investors weigh trade concerns and a softer US dollar
The Canadian Dollar was mostly flat against the US Dollar on Thursday, with USD/CAD near 1.3571. The US Dollar was softer overall, which limited gains in the pair.
US data showed Initial Jobless Claims fell to 227K from 232K, but still came in above the 222K forecast. Continuing Jobless Claims rose to 1.862M from 1.841M.
US Dollar Weakness Limits Upside
The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded near 96.85, close to a two-week low. The US Dollar struggled to keep earlier gains, even after a stronger Nonfarm Payrolls report, because revisions weakened the overall picture. The US added 130K jobs in January versus expectations of 70K. However, November and December payrolls were revised lower by a combined 17K. The BLS said average monthly job growth in 2025 was 15K. It also revised March 2025 total nonfarm employment down by 898,000, and cut total 2025 job growth to 181,000 from 584,000. Markets are waiting for the US CPI report on Friday. Trade headlines also pressured CAD after reports that Donald Trump may consider leaving the USMCA. Meanwhile, the House voted 219-211 to move forward on a measure aimed at ending tariffs on Canada.US CPI And Trade Risks Guide The Range
With mixed signals, we expect USD/CAD to stay range-bound as fundamentals and politics pull in different directions. The large downward revisions to 2025 US job growth—cutting the annual total to just 181,000—are still weighing on the US Dollar. This weakness in the Greenback is acting as a ceiling for the pair. The US CPI report released this morning supported the disinflation trend. January CPI came in at 2.8% year-over-year, slightly below the 2.9% consensus. After this release, the CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing a 75% chance of a Fed rate cut by the June meeting. This supports our view that the US Dollar may stay softer over the medium term. At the same time, the risk of a US exit from the USMCA is putting a floor under USD/CAD, making it harder for the Canadian Dollar to strengthen much. This week, Canada’s Minister of International Trade warned of “significant economic disruption” if the agreement changes, which has kept CAD-focused investors on edge. Because of this uncertainty, shorting USD/CAD outright remains risky for now. For derivatives traders, this kind of uncertainty favors volatility strategies over directional bets. One-month USD/CAD implied volatility has risen to 8.5%, up from 6.2% last month. This suggests the market is preparing for a sharp move. Buying straddles or strangles may be a practical way to trade a breakout in either direction, potentially triggered by the next trade headline or a Fed comment. As another approach, to express the idea of US economic weakness without Canada-specific political risk, we are also watching other pairs. For example, call options on EUR/USD may offer a cleaner way to position for broad US Dollar softness. The euro does not face the same direct US trade threats, so it may rise more freely against the Greenback if US data continues to weaken. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.TD Securities said the BoC minutes seemed mildly dovish, citing stimulative rates, geopolitical risks, and USMCA uncertainty
TD Securities said the Bank of Canada’s January meeting minutes mostly matched the tone of the rate decision, which was slightly dovish. Policymakers said the current policy rate is appropriate. They also said it is slightly stimulative relative to the neutral range. Updated projections were broadly in line with October’s Monetary Policy Report.
The minutes also pointed to geopolitical uncertainty and how the Canadian economy might adjust under those conditions. They noted elevated uncertainty tied to the upcoming USMCA renewal and treated it as a risk to the outlook.
Bank Of Canada Rate Path
TD Securities said the Bank wants to keep flexibility when setting rates. It does not expect the Bank to rush into rate cuts if the near-term outlook weakens. It also sees potential rate hikes starting in 2027, if the output gap narrows this year. The Bank of Canada is signaling it will stay on hold. It wants to keep its options open and avoid sudden moves. This suggests a stretch where interest rates do not change much in either direction. For traders, that likely means the Canadian dollar and short-term bond yields stay range-bound over the next several weeks. Recent inflation data supports this wait-and-see approach. January 2026 CPI held at 2.9%. That is lower than the peaks seen in 2025, but it is still above the Bank’s 2% target. Because inflation remains sticky, the Bank has little reason to cut rates quickly, even if the economy is slowing. At the same time, growth looks weaker. The latest January jobs report showed a small gain of just 5,000 positions. This kind of mixed data adds uncertainty and gives the Bank a reason to wait for more information. The tug-of-war between persistent inflation and softer growth is likely to keep the Bank on the sidelines through the spring.Trading Implications For Cad
This “no-change” policy backdrop can favor selling volatility in the Canadian dollar. One example is selling short-dated CAD/USD strangles, which benefit if the pair stays within a set range. Implied volatility looks high given the Bank’s clear message that it is likely to wait. In rates, it makes sense to be careful about positioning for near-term cuts when the Bank has signaled they are not close. In 2025, markets repeatedly priced in policy shifts too early. It is worth avoiding a repeat of that. Overnight Index Swaps still price a meaningful chance of a cut by mid-year, which may be too aggressive. USMCA renewal talks are also a key risk, and the minutes explicitly highlighted them. Recent comments from U.S. trade officials suggest a tougher stance, which increases uncertainty for Canadian exports. This supports the idea of selling short-term volatility, while still holding some longer-dated options to hedge against a surprise outcome. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.BNY’s Geoff Yu says Bullock warned the RBA may hike rates if inflation persists amid productivity concerns
RBA Governor Michele Bullock said more interest rate rises are possible if inflation stays high. She said the board will keep relying on new data and will keep reviewing its forecasts.
The RBA expects both headline and core inflation to remain above its 2–3% target band this year. This comes after the latest cash rate rise to 3.85%, with another increase possible if needed.
Inflation Expectations Reaccelerate
Australia’s February consumer inflation expectations rose by 0.4 percentage points to 5.0% on the 30% trimmed mean measure. This pushed expectations back above 5% after seven straight months below that level. The rise in expectations was cited as support for lifting the cash rate target to 3.85%. The article notes it was produced using an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. There are signs that more rate hikes could follow if inflation does not ease. Governor Bullock has said inflation is still too high. This view is backed by the January 2026 monthly CPI, which came in at 3.6%. Ongoing price pressure is keeping the Australian dollar and local bond yields sensitive to new data. This looks similar to what we saw through 2025, when sticky inflation kept the RBA leaning hawkish. A key worry now is that consumer inflation expectations have risen again to 4.5% in the latest February report. The Board watches this closely because higher expectations can feed into future price rises.Market Implications For Rates And FX
For rates traders, this points to a risk that yields move higher. Traders may look at positions that benefit from a steeper yield curve, or trades that assume the cash rate peaks above what markets currently price in. The recent move in the 10-year government bond yield above 4.30% supports this hawkish view. For currency markets, this backdrop can support the Australian dollar, especially against currencies where central banks are more dovish. Traders may consider strategies that benefit from AUD strength, such as buying AUD/USD call options. This gives upside exposure while limiting risk if the RBA unexpectedly turns more cautious. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.In January, the UK’s NIESR three-month GDP estimate fell sharply from 4.296% to 0.3%
The United Kingdom NIESR GDP estimate for the three-month period fell to 0.3% in January, down from 4.296% in the previous reading.
The latest figure points to a sharp slowdown over the three-month window. The release did not include a detailed breakdown or key drivers.
UK Growth Signal Turns Negative
The latest three-month GDP estimate shows a steep slowdown in the UK economy, falling to just 0.3%. This is a major drop from the growth seen at the end of 2025 and is a clear bearish signal. We should prepare for a period of weak growth and adjust strategies to match. This data also changes the outlook for Bank of England policy. Markets are likely to drop any remaining expectations of rate hikes and shift toward pricing in rate cuts to support growth. Overnight index swaps have already moved this way, with markets now pricing a 70% chance of a rate cut by May, up from 30% a week ago. As a result, we expect the Pound Sterling to stay under pressure against the US Dollar and the Euro. UK inflation in January was softer than expected at 2.4%, which gives the central bank more room to ease. This widens the policy gap with the US Federal Reserve, making short positions in GBP/USD more attractive. UK domestic equities, especially in the FTSE 250, also look exposed. Many of these firms depend on UK consumer demand, and this report suggests spending could fall. Buying put options on the FTSE 250 may be a direct way to position for a possible market decline in the weeks ahead.Gilt Yield Outlook Improves
In contrast, we expect demand to increase for UK government bonds (gilts) as investors seek safety. A weaker economy and the likelihood of lower policy rates should support gilt prices. A long position in 10-year gilt futures is one way to benefit if yields fall. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.RBC’s Claire Fan expects the Fed to keep rates near neutral, with slightly lower unemployment ahead and an unchanged 2026 average
RBC Economics expects only minor changes to the US outlook. The near-term unemployment forecast is slightly lower, while the 2026 annual average still sits at 4.5%.
Stronger-than-expected US GDP growth in the second half of 2025 appears to be driven by higher productivity, not by more hiring or longer hours. Early-2026 signs of a stabilising labour market have also eased fears of further weakening.
