USD/JPY fell for a third straight day as the Yen stayed supported after Japan’s election result. The pair traded near 152.84, close to a two-week low, and is down more than 2.5% this week. The Yen gained support after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election win, which eased political uncertainty. The US Dollar also struggled to hold gains even after a strong US jobs report. The Dollar Index hovered near 96.75 after a brief jump to 97.27.

Bearish Technical Setup

The technical picture has turned bearish after USD/JPY dropped below key daily moving averages. RSI is near 35, and Average True Range (14) is about 1.38. A break below 152.00 could put the 200-day SMA near 150.50 in focus. A move under 150.00 could open the door to 148.00, the 1.618 Fibonacci level. On a bounce, 153.69 (78.6% retracement) and 154.84 (61.8% retracement) are key levels. The 100-day SMA is around 154.60. A daily close above 154.84 could shift attention to the 50-day SMA at 156.27. The Yen is influenced by Japan’s economy, Bank of Japan policy, Japan–US yield spreads, and overall risk sentiment. The BoJ ran an ultra-loose policy from 2013 to 2024, then started moving away from it in 2024.

USDJPY Downside Strategy

With the Yen stronger after the election, the focus should be on strategies that benefit if USD/JPY falls. The new government looks stable, which points to a clearer and more predictable policy outlook. Markets appear to welcome this, and it marks a clear change from the uncertainty seen through much of 2025. The US Dollar’s failure to rally on strong jobs data supports the view that the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance is still the main driver. Last week’s January US CPI came in at 2.8%, below expectations. This raised the odds of a mid-year rate cut, with futures now pricing the probability at over 70%. This differs from the Bank of Japan, which is expected to keep slowly unwinding the loose policy of the past decade. For derivatives, this setup favors buying USD/JPY put options. With the pair now below key moving averages, there is room for a move toward the 200-day SMA near 150.50 in the coming weeks. Puts with a 152.00 strike look like a primary way to position for the downtrend. In late 2024, Ministry of Finance intervention helped push the Yen stronger. This move looks different because it is supported by a shift in fundamentals, with policy paths starting to converge. Wider daily swings also suggest put spreads may be a better choice. They can reduce the cost of higher option premiums while still keeping downside exposure. Discipline is key, and the resistance levels above should be watched closely. A daily close back above 154.84 would suggest bearish momentum is weakening and would require a reassessment of short positions. Until then, the simplest path still appears lower for the pair. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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US January nonfarm payrolls came in at 130K versus a 70K consensus, nearly double expectations. After an early gain, the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.25% by lunchtime, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 were mostly flat. Payroll growth improved from December’s revised 48K, and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%. Markets pushed expectations for the next US rate cut from June to July. A Federal Reserve official also suggested keeping policy restrictive as inflation moves closer to 3%.

Rates Cut Outlook Shifts

Several non-AI technology stocks and related names fell after earnings updates. Stocks mentioned included Robinhood (HOOD), Shopify (SHOP), Lyft (LYFT), Astera Labs (ALAB), and Unity Software (U). Astera Labs fell 20%, as investors focused on future gross margins and its partnership with Amazon (AMZN). Unity dropped 30% after issuing weak revenue guidance, while Robinhood slid 13% after missing quarterly revenue. Centrus Energy (LEU) fell 19% after missing quarterly expectations. Shopify dropped 13% after forecasting Q1 free cash flow margins in the “low to mid-teens,” versus the 17% margin Wall Street expected. Because the January jobs report was strong, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut shifted from June to July. The market reacted right away: the 2-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points to 4.55% as traders priced in higher rates for longer. This suggests traders may want strategies that benefit from the delay, such as buying puts on interest rate-sensitive bond ETFs.

Tech Sector Rotation Deepens

The technology sector is showing a clear and “violent” split. Non-AI companies are being hit hard, while AI-focused firms are holding up better. This rotation looks similar to the valuation reset seen in 2022 and may create opportunities for pairs trades. One approach is to buy calls on a basket of AI leaders while also buying puts on ETFs that track traditional software, such as the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV). The sharp one-day drops—Unity Software (U) down 30% and Astera Labs (ALAB) down 20%—show the market’s stronger focus on profitability and the threat from AI-driven competition. For traders, buying put options on non-AI tech companies that have not yet reported earnings may be a useful strategy. These moves suggest that implied volatility, even when elevated, may still not fully reflect the downside risk for companies that deliver weak guidance. Even though broad indexes like the S&P 500 look calm, there is significant volatility beneath the surface. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is around 15, which may underprice the risk from this sector rotation. In this environment, it may be more effective to buy protection in specific vulnerable sectors rather than in broad market indexes. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold stayed above $5,000 on Wednesday after the latest US jobs report beat forecasts. XAU/USD traded at $5,054, up 0.61%, after dipping to $5,018 and then rebounding toward $5,050. US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 130K in January. That was up from 48K in December and above the 70K estimate. The report was delayed by a three-day government shutdown. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Markets now price the first Fed rate cut in July 2026. US Treasury yields rose. The 10-year yield climbed nearly three basis points to 4.168%. The US Dollar Index edged up 0.07% to 96.95. Prime Market Terminal data shows money markets pricing a 100% chance of a July 2026 rate cut. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said rate cuts could keep inflation higher for longer. He also said policy is not restraining the economy. He added that policy should stay restrictive while inflation is near 3%. A Bloomberg report said the USMCA covers about $2 trillion in goods and services, as discussions continue about a possible US exit. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said territorial terms will be central to the next talks with the US. Upcoming US data includes Initial Jobless Claims and January CPI. CPI is expected to ease from 2.7% to 2.5% year over year. Core CPI is seen at 2.5% versus 2.6%. Key technical levels include the 20-day SMA at $4,935. Resistance sits at $5,100, $5,451, and $5,598. Support levels are $4,655 and the 50-day SMA at $4,588. Gold has shown strong resilience. It stayed above $5,000 even after a strong jobs report pushed expected Fed cuts out to July 2026. Holding up while yields rise and the dollar strengthens suggests solid underlying demand. Traders should expect higher volatility, as the market is split between hawkish policy and safe-haven buying. Focus now turns to Friday’s CPI report. It is likely to drive gold’s next big move. A softer inflation print, as forecast, would support the disinflation story and could push gold above the $5,100 resistance. With this kind of two-way risk, options can help limit downside. If you expect a bullish CPI outcome, call options with strikes above $5,100 could offer leveraged upside. This approach also fits with technical momentum and continued geopolitical uncertainty around the USMCA and Ukraine. Central banks also stayed heavy buyers in 2025, adding more than 1,050 tonnes to reserves, which points to strong long-term demand. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, it would support the Fed’s hawkish stance and could pressure gold lower. In that case, put options with strikes below the 20-day average near $4,935 could benefit from a drop toward the $4,600 area. The move in the 10-year yield back above 4.15% also shows the bond market can react quickly to sticky inflation. With mixed signals, a volatility-focused approach may make the most sense. A long straddle—buying a call and a put at the same strike—can profit from a large move in either direction after the CPI release. In 2025, markets often made sharp moves after major data, which is the type of action that can favor this strategy.

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WTI climbed above $65.00 on Wednesday, rising more than 1%, as tensions between the US and Iran added a risk premium. Price moved above the 50 EMA at $60.85 and the 200 EMA at $62.39 after hitting a January low of $55.68. The rally reached about $65.64 and approached resistance at $66.25. The chart has shown higher highs and higher lows since early January.

Geopolitical Risks And Trade Uncertainty

Markets are focused on the risk that US-Iran nuclear talks could collapse, which could disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg also reported that President Trump is considering a USMCA exit ahead of the mandatory 1 July review. That move could raise tariffs on Canadian crude. US data showed January NFP at 130K versus a 70K forecast. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.3%. The EIA reported a crude inventory build of +8.53 million barrels, compared with expectations for a -0.2 million barrel draw. The Stochastic Oscillator (14,5,5) was near 80, and resistance remains around $66.25. A close above $66.25 would open the way to $68.00 to $69.00. If price fails at resistance, it could fall back toward $62.39. Traders are also watching the IEA natural gas storage report and OPEC’s outlook, which calls for weaker demand in Q2.

Current Market Structure And Key Levels

The current setup looks similar to early 2025: strong geopolitical support is clashing with bearish inventory data. WTI is getting lifted by tensions overseas, but the US physical market looks well supplied. This mix adds uncertainty for price action in the weeks ahead. Price is holding above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $79.50, keeping the tone bullish since the start of the year. This strength echoes last year’s rebound from the January lows. However, the move is now testing a major resistance area near $85.00, which has stopped rallies twice in the last quarter. The main driver behind recent strength is renewed naval friction in the South China Sea, which is raising fears of disruption to key shipping routes. Recent energy security reports suggest more than 30% of global seaborne crude moves through this region. Any escalation could threaten supply chains, keeping sellers cautious for now. Even so, the fundamentals remain weak, as shown by the latest EIA report. Inventories rose by 7.2 million barrels, far above expectations for a small draw, which weighed on sentiment. At the same time, US crude production is still near record highs around 13.3 million barrels per day. For derivatives traders, this sets a clear range. A sustained break above $85.00 could drive a sharper move higher, making long-dated call options a potential way to target that upside. If price gets rejected at $85.00, it would suggest inventories are taking control, with risk of a move back toward 50-day EMA support near $79.50. Adding another layer, the latest OPEC+ meeting ended with the group keeping current production quotas. That may help put a floor under prices, but it does little to address the supply builds in North America. Demand signals from Asia also matter, especially after softer-than-expected industrial production data from China. How these supply-and-demand forces interact will be key, alongside the technical levels. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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US stocks fell in afternoon trading after a stronger-than-expected US payrolls report. Early gains in US futures faded as investors considered whether interest-rate cuts could be pushed back. As the day progressed, markets shifted into a “risk-off” mood. The FTSE 100 held up better than most, supported by higher commodity prices.

Market Breadth And Volatility

US market breadth hit a record high. This can point to upside over the medium term, but it can also come with higher volatility. Cryptocurrencies resumed their slide after last week’s bounce. Bitcoin fell again after posting fresh multi-month lows last week. We saw a similar move last year, when a strong payrolls report initially rattled markets. The January 2026 jobs report is having the same effect, with 280,000 jobs added versus 190,000 expected. As a result, expectations for rate cuts this year have dropped from three to just one, which is weighing on equities. That uncertainty shows up in the VIX, which has stayed above 20, suggesting traders expect more turbulence. Unlike early 2025—when record breadth supported a broad rally—the current rally looks narrow and is being led by only a few large-cap tech stocks. That makes hedging more important. Using options to hedge long positions, or buying puts on broader market indices, may be a sensible approach.

Ftse 100 Outlook And Commodities

The idea of the FTSE 100 as a safe haven looks less convincing than it did before. Commodity prices, a key source of support in 2025, have weakened. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is down 3% year-to-date, removing an important tailwind for the UK index versus US markets. The bearish view on Bitcoin has played out. Its long decline since 2025 has left it stuck below prior highs. Implied volatility on Bitcoin options has dropped to multi-year lows, showing limited speculative interest in the derivatives market. Traders may look at selling calls or using bearish spreads, as there appears to be little near-term catalyst for a sharp move higher. Gold, however, remains in demand and is holding above $2,200 per ounce. Ongoing geopolitical risks and central-bank buying continue to support it as a true safe-haven asset. This supports the idea of using gold call options, or gold miner ETFs, to hedge against wider market volatility. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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GBP/USD rose during the North American session on Wednesday, but later gave back part of the move after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report lowered expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The pair retreated from a daily high of 1.3712 and was trading at 1.3655 at the time of writing, up 0.10%.

Us Jobs Report Shifts Rate Cut Odds

Expectations have shifted sharply after a blockbuster US Non-Farm Payrolls report. Payrolls rose by more than 350,000, far above the 180,000 expected. This surprise strength has materially changed the outlook for a Federal Reserve rate cut in March. As a result, the market-implied probability of a March cut has dropped from above 70% to below 40%. This abrupt repricing suggests GBP/USD volatility could increase in the coming weeks. The 1.3712 high now acts as a key resistance level and may be hard to break. One potential approach is to sell out-of-the-money call options with strike prices above 1.3725 to collect premium if upside remains limited. US Dollar strength also contrasts with recent UK inflation data. Last week, UK inflation came in below forecasts at 2.1%. This gap in economic momentum supports the case for a weaker Pound versus the Dollar. Traders may also consider buying put options to benefit from a possible pullback toward the 1.3500 level. A similar pattern appeared in the third quarter of 2025. At that time, a run of strong US data repeatedly pushed back rate-cut expectations and capped GBP/USD rallies. If the current US data trend continues, it could keep the Pound under pressure for a full quarter.

Historical Parallel Points To Continued Pressure

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AUD/USD trades near 0.7110 on Wednesday, up 0.56%. It is supported by a stronger global mood and hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Support also comes from China’s latest CPI data, since China is Australia’s top trading partner. China’s inflation rose 0.2% year over year in January, down from 0.8% previously and below forecasts. Even so, the report hints that disinflation may be easing. That has helped Asia-linked currencies, including the Australian Dollar.

China Inflation And Rba Signal

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said inflation is still too high, and the bank is ready to act again to bring it back to target. Markets have raised the odds of another 25 basis point rate hike at upcoming meetings. Australian housing credit data showed more first-home buyer loans and a higher average loan size. This suggests housing demand is still firm and could add to price pressures. In the US, January Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 130,000 versus 70,000 expected. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3%, and Average Hourly Earnings growth held at 3.7%. These results support the view that the Fed can keep rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range. However, downward revisions to earlier figures, tied to the annual benchmark update, point to weaker job growth last year. Focus now shifts to Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations on Thursday.

Early 2025 Versus Today

In early 2025, AUD/USD climbed toward 0.7110 after a hawkish RBA signal. Today, the pair is much lower near 0.6750, as markets respond to different pressures than a year ago. This change calls for a fresh look at the main drivers behind the pair. The RBA is still cautious, but less aggressively hawkish than before. The latest quarterly inflation data from January 2026 put CPI at 3.9%. Inflation has cooled, but it is still above the target band. The RBA has kept the cash rate at 4.60% in its last two meetings, showing it is now more data-dependent and less focused on pre-emptive tightening. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is dealing with renewed inflation pressure. The January 2026 jobs report showed a strong gain of 210,000 jobs, and the latest CPI came in hotter than expected at 3.4% year over year. This has pushed expected Fed rate cuts further out, which has improved the US dollar’s appeal versus the Aussie. China, Australia’s key trading partner, is also offering less support than it did in early 2025. Recent PMI data has been mixed and has hovered around 50, the line between expansion and contraction. This points to a fragile recovery, which can weigh on Australian exports and the AUD. With the US economy holding up better than expected and Australia taking a more cautious path, strategies that benefit from possible AUD/USD downside may make sense. Buying AUD/USD put options is one defined-risk way to position for a drop, especially ahead of major US data releases. This approach aims to benefit from US dollar strength while limiting potential losses. Key risks to watch include next week’s US inflation data and the RBA meeting minutes for any shift in tone. The policy gap between the two central banks appears to be a stronger driver now than it was last year. If US data remains strong, it could speed up a move lower in the pair. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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GBP/JPY fell for a third straight day, hitting its lowest level since 19 December and trading near 209.25. The drop was driven by broad demand for the Japanese Yen. Yen demand picked up after Japan’s general election, where Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won decisively. Markets also focused on a proposed ¥21 trillion stimulus package and a temporary suspension of the consumption tax on food.

Japan Election Stimulus And Yen Demand

Japan’s stock market climbed to record highs. Demand for Japanese assets rose on expectations of stronger growth. In the UK, political pressure seemed to ease after Prime Minister Keir Starmer survived a leadership challenge linked to the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States. Starmer kept support from his Cabinet and many Labour MPs. Expectations for UK interest rates also weighed on the Pound. The Bank of England held the Bank Rate at 3.75% in February in a close 5–4 vote. A Reuters report said people surveyed by the BoE expect the rate to fall to around 3.0% by the March 2027 meeting. Markets continued to price in a gradual Bank of Japan normalisation path, with expectations for the next rate rise shifting toward June. Attention now turns to UK GDP, plus Industrial and Manufacturing Production data due on Thursday.

Central Bank Divergence And Trading Bias

The clear policy split between the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan sends a strong signal. We see the BoE moving closer to rate cuts, possibly as soon as March, while the BoJ is expected to raise rates in June. This gap makes bearish GBP/JPY positions look attractive in the weeks ahead. Expectations for a BoE cut look firm, especially after UK inflation fell to 2.1% in January. That is a three-year low and close to the BoE’s target. Along with weak Q4 2025 GDP growth of just 0.1%, this gives the central bank a reason to start easing. As a result, the Pound may stay under pressure. In Japan, confidence is improving. The Nikkei 225 has recently pushed above 42,000. Core inflation has also stayed elevated at 2.5%, supporting the view that the BoJ can proceed with another rate hike. This backdrop should continue to support Yen demand. With this outlook, buying GBP/JPY put options is a straightforward way to position for further downside while limiting risk. Traders could look at strikes below 209.00, with expirations in late March to align with the expected BoE decision. Selling call spreads may also work well, allowing traders to earn premium in a market that may drift lower or move sideways. Even so, caution is needed ahead of tomorrow’s UK GDP and production releases. A stronger-than-expected result could trigger a short-term Pound rebound. The current policy split is similar to the large currency moves seen during the 2007–2008 financial crisis, showing how powerful central bank divergence can be. This also highlights the need to track central bank messaging closely. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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BNY data show broad inflows into Latin American equities, bonds, and FX in recent months. Positioning is now higher than in other emerging markets. The note ties this to carry demand and warns the set-up could lead to a correction unless the region delivers major reforms or sees a lasting rise in commodity prices. As of Monday, every Latin American equity market with enough data had net buying, with Brazil and Peru among the strongest. In fixed income, every market except Peru had net buying on a quarterly basis across sovereign and corporate bonds. FX holdings in Latin America rose over the past two months, while other emerging markets struggled. This happened even as many widely traded APAC funding currencies strengthened. The move is described as mostly carry-driven, with early signs the broader move may be topping out. Latin American equity holdings are moving in line with emerging market peers. In fixed income, the gap has widened, led by sovereign bonds. In November, Latin American sovereign holdings rose to about 15% above the rolling 12-month average, while emerging markets fell below benchmark. By early February, overall EM holdings were still below benchmark, while Latin American fixed income was about 10% higher. The adjustment started first in FX. Looking back to a year ago, we noted that by early 2025 Latin American assets had seen huge, broad inflows. Positioning across equities, bonds, and currencies became extremely stretched. This looked unsustainable without major reforms. The risk of a meaningful correction was high because the region was unlikely to decouple from developed market performance. That adjustment did happen, starting in FX in mid-2025, as expected. As central banks in Brazil and Mexico began to signal rate cuts while the U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates steady, the carry trade reversed. Currencies like the Brazilian real fell more than 8% against the dollar in the second half of the year. This supported the view that the first breaks would show up in FX. The correction then moved into equities. The MSCI EM Latin America Index fell nearly 15% from its first-quarter 2025 peak by the third quarter. The drop was driven by the unwind of crowded long positions built earlier in the year. Outflows picked up as investors reacted to global growth worries, especially concerns tied to Asia. Latin America’s reliance on commodity prices and global demand showed up again in 2025. For example, weaker industrial activity in China pushed iron ore prices down, falling below $100 per ton in late 2025. That directly hurt expectations for Brazilian sovereign revenues. It reinforced the point that the region cannot grow independently of APAC trading partners and developed markets. Now that much of the excess has cleared and valuations look more reasonable, the trading dynamic has changed. Instead of positioning for a broad decline, derivatives traders may want more targeted option strategies that seek upside while limiting downside. One example is buying call options on country ETFs like Brazil’s EWZ to gain leveraged exposure to a potential rebound over the coming weeks with defined risk. With uncertainty still lingering after last year’s correction, implied volatility remains high versus historical averages. That can favor strategies that benefit from big moves in either direction, such as long straddles on the most liquid regional equity indices. This approach can profit if markets rally sharply on improved sentiment or sell off again on renewed global growth fears.

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The DJIA gave up early gains and closed about 120 points lower, down roughly 0.2% near 50,010, after briefly moving back above 50,000. The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.5%. Heavy selling in enterprise software stocks outweighed the market’s initial reaction to the January NFP report. The BLS said the US added 130K jobs in January versus a Dow Jones estimate of 55K, the strongest payroll growth since December 2024. Unemployment dipped to 4.3% from 4.4%. U6 fell to 8.0%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year. Participation edged up to 62.5%. The household survey showed a gain of 528K.

Labor Market Details

Health care added 82K jobs, social assistance added 42K, and construction added 33K. Federal government employment fell by 34K. Final benchmark revisions cut payrolls by 898K for April 2024 to March 2025. This reduced 2025 job growth from 584K to 181K and brought average monthly gains to below 40K. Powell previously cited about 60K per month. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid repeated that he prefers policy to stay modestly restrictive while inflation remains persistent. Markets moved to expect the next cut no earlier than July. CME FedWatch priced about a 33% chance of 50 basis points of cuts by year-end, with the fed funds rate seen at 3.50% to 3.75% after three quarter-point cuts in H2 2025. Software shares fell again: Salesforce dropped nearly 4%, ServiceNow fell over 6%, Intuit fell more than 5%, and Oracle and Palantir fell over 2%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF slid 3.5%. The sector has lost more than $1 trillion in value since late January. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure names rose. Vertiv jumped 17%, Caterpillar rose 4%, Eaton rose 4%, and GE Vernova added 1%. Other moves included T-Mobile down 5%, Robinhood down 10%, and Mattel down 30%.

Strategy Implications

The market is sending mixed signals. The strong January jobs report was offset by concerns about a more hawkish Federal Reserve. This type of uncertainty often leads to higher volatility. That can make options strategies that benefit from large price swings more attractive. We should be ready for choppy trading, and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) could move back toward 20, a level seen during uncertain periods in 2024. The sharp selloff in enterprise software looks like more than a one-day move. It reflects a broader shift tied to fears of AI disruption. This trend may continue. The current drop is being compared to the 2022 tech correction, when the sector fell more than 30%. We should consider put options on software ETFs or on individual names like ServiceNow to potentially benefit if weakness continues. At the same time, the rally in AI infrastructure and industrial companies like Vertiv and Caterpillar is supported by earnings and strong forward guidance. This “picks and shovels” approach to AI is where money is moving, and it has created a clearer bullish trend. Call spreads on these leaders can provide upside exposure while helping manage the high option premiums that often come with strong momentum. This split between software and infrastructure also creates a pairs trade opportunity. By going long a basket of AI infrastructure stocks and shorting a basket of enterprise software stocks, we can focus on this theme. This approach can reduce exposure to the overall market direction and may profit as long as the rotation continues. The stronger jobs data, especially 3.7% wage growth, gives the Fed more room to delay rate cuts beyond the summer. Inflation was difficult to control in 2023 and 2024, so the Fed may be cautious about easing too quickly. The move in rate-cut expectations from June to July looks reasonable, and further delays could continue to pressure growth-oriented stocks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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