Mexico City, Mexico, 9 February 2026 — VT Markets will take part in Money Expo Mexico 2026 as a Titanium Sponsor, reinforcing its active role within one of Mexico’s most influential financial industry gatherings. The event will take place on 18–19 February 2026 at Centro Banamex, Mexico City, and is expected to welcome more than 6,000 financial professionals, traders, investors, fintech leaders, partners, and media representatives.

Money Expo Mexico 2026 builds on the momentum bringing together global and regional participants across finance, trading, investment, fintech, and blockchain. Designed as a high-impact exhibition and conference, the two-day event provides a platform for knowledge exchange, innovation showcases, and strategic networking, reflecting Mexico’s growing relevance within the regional and global financial ecosystem.

 VT Markets returns in 2026 with an elevated presence as a Titanium Sponsor. Throughout the event, the firm will be exhibiting at Booth 3, where attendees will have the opportunity to engage directly with the brand, exchange professional insights, and explore perspectives on navigating today’s evolving and increasingly complex market environment.

VT Markets’ participation highlights its continued focus on collaboration with industry professionals and partners, the advancement of thought leadership through expert engagement, and a sustained commitment to trader education and professional development. By maintaining an active presence at Money Expo Mexico 2026, the brand continues to strengthen relationships, expand visibility, and contribute meaningfully to industry dialogue shaping the future of financial markets in Mexico and beyond. As anticipation builds toward the event, VT Markets’ involvement signals readiness to engage constructively, share expertise, and support sustainable growth across the regional and international financial community with clarity, responsibility, and long-term vision.

About VT Markets

VT Markets is a regulated multi-asset broker with a presence in over 160 countries as of today. It has earned numerous international accolades including Best Online Trading and Fastest Growing Broker. In line with its mission to make trading accessible to all, VT Markets offers comprehensive access to over 1,000 financial instruments and clients benefit from a seamless trading experience via its award-winning mobile application.

For more information, please visit the official VT Markets website or email us at [email protected]. Alternatively, follow VT Markets on Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn.

For media enquiries and sponsorship opportunities, please email [email protected], or contact:

Dandelyn Koh

Head of Global Marketing

[email protected]

Brenda Wong

Assistant Manager, Global PR & Communications

[email protected]

Gold fell 0.72% to $5,022 on Tuesday. It stayed above $5,000 as the US Dollar held steady and traders cut short positions. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was unchanged at 96.78, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped five basis points to 4.149%. US Retail Sales were weak. December sales were flat (0% month-on-month), down from 0.6% in November and below the 0.4% rise expected. The retail control group slipped -0.1% in December after 0.2% previously, and November data were revised lower.

Fed Cut Expectations Shift

Labour cost data also eased. The Employment Cost Index rose 0.7% in Q4, down from 0.8% in Q3. Markets raised expected Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 from 56.5 basis points to 58.5 basis points. Focus now turns to the Nonfarm Payrolls report due Wednesday, 11 February. Forecasts call for 70K jobs in January versus 50K in December. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.4%, and Kevin Hassett said the jobs number could be “slightly lower”. Gold has been trading in a $5,000–$5,100 range. Resistance sits at $5,100, then $5,200, $5,451, and near $5,600. Support is at $5,000, the 20-day SMA at $4,910, then $4,800 and $4,402. Gold’s recent dip, even with weaker economic data, suggests the market is cautious ahead of major news. Traders appear to be waiting for tomorrow’s January Nonfarm Payrolls report before making bigger moves. In this setup, it may be better to prepare for a breakout than to chase the current price.

Options Market Range Strategies

Implied volatility is rising, as options markets expect a sharp move after the jobs report. That makes buying options expensive. Because of this, we are considering strategies that can profit if price stays in a range, such as selling strangles outside the $4,900–$5,150 zone. If the market reaction is mild, those positions could perform well. If payrolls come in well above the 70K forecast, it would challenge the market’s growing view that the Fed will deliver deep cuts. That could drive a quick US Dollar rally and pull gold lower to test the 20-day moving average near $4,910. A similar move happened in Q3 2025, when a strong jobs report briefly pushed back rate-cut expectations. If payrolls miss expectations, it would reinforce the weak retail sales and softer labour cost data. That would likely speed up bets on Fed easing. It could also be the catalyst that breaks gold out of its current range and lifts it above $5,100 resistance. If that happens, the path toward the January peak of $5,451 becomes clearer. No matter what tomorrow’s data show, the broader trend of central bank buying still supports prices. Official 2025 data showed central banks added a net 1,037 tonnes to reserves, the second-highest year on record for physical demand. This steady demand—especially from Asian central banks—should help limit any major sell-off. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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National Bank of Canada analysts expect the Federal Reserve to restart rate cuts in March and June 2026. They see rising labour market risks, even as growth and inflation stay relatively firm. They also note that OIS markets have re-priced the odds of near-term cuts, and that the FOMC signalled a patient approach in January. The analysts say a March cut could shift into the second quarter if non-farm payrolls do not weaken soon. They also say the window for easing is tight and likely short, before stronger GDP, renewed hiring, and higher inflation reappear.

Fed Cut Timing And Market Pricing

They expect long-term US Treasury yields to stay mostly range-bound through 2026. They add that Fed balance-sheet tightening is not a major concern, but they also do not expect long-term yields to drop very much. We think the Federal Reserve is preparing to cut rates, possibly as soon as March, but the outcome is still uncertain. The chance of a March cut implied by OIS markets has fallen from more than 75% last month to about 45% today. This shift followed recent data showing the economy is stronger than expected. Whether there is a March cut now depends largely on the next Non-Farm Payrolls report. The January report showed a stronger-than-expected gain of 215,000 jobs. That makes it harder to argue the labour market is weak enough to justify an immediate cut. If upcoming employment data does not soften quickly and clearly, the first cut will likely move into the second quarter. For derivatives traders, this creates a data-driven setup where short-term volatility may be priced too low. Options straddles on short-term interest rate futures could be one way to trade the next jobs report. This approach can benefit from a big move in either direction—either weaker data that supports a March cut or stronger data that delays it.

Range Bound Long End Trades

Further out, we see only a small window for the Fed to ease policy. A similar pattern appeared in 2025, when early weakness was followed by renewed strength, which limited the scope for rate cuts. That suggests that even if cuts start in March or June, they may not last long. If this is right, long-term Treasury yields should stay range-bound through 2026. Traders may want to be cautious with positions that depend on a major bond rally. Selling volatility on longer-dated Treasury futures or ETFs, using strategies such as iron condors, could work well if yields remain inside a steady trading range. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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AUD/USD slipped on Tuesday. It ended a two-day rally after weak Australian consumer sentiment hurt the Australian Dollar. The pair held near 0.7070, close to a three-year high. The US Dollar stayed weak, which limited the fall in AUD/USD. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was steady near 96.80, close to a more than one-week low.

Australian Consumer Confidence Weakens

Westpac Consumer Confidence in Australia fell 2.6% in February. This was the third straight monthly drop, after a 1.7% fall in January. Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points, to 3.85% from 3.60%. The next policy meeting is on March 16–17. In the US, weak Retail Sales data supported expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease policy. Markets are pricing in about 50 basis points of rate cuts this year. Traders are now watching Wednesday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report and Friday’s US CPI data for clues on the timing of the first rate cut. China’s CPI data, due Wednesday, is also in focus because Australia has strong trade ties with China.

Looking Back At The Key Shift

In early 2025, AUD/USD was near a three-year high. The main driver was the view that the US Federal Reserve was clearly moving toward rate cuts. Australian consumer confidence was weak, but markets focused more on a broadly softer US dollar. This kept the pair in a fragile balance. That view changed. The large Fed cuts expected in 2025 did not fully happen because inflation stayed higher than forecast. The US Consumer Price Index for January 2026 rose 3.1%, slightly above the 2.9% estimate. This “sticky” inflation supports the idea that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. That is a major shift from the mood a year earlier. In Australia, consumer worries also proved justified. The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept its cash rate at 4.35% for more than a year to fight inflation. Official data also showed Australia’s economy grew only 1.5% in 2025. That was the slowest annual pace outside the pandemic since 2000. Slow growth limits how much the RBA can keep up with a more hawkish Fed. The China risk has also grown into a major headwind for the Australian dollar. China’s economy has underperformed. Its consumer prices fell again in January 2026, down 0.8% year over year for the fourth month in a row. Ongoing deflation points to weak domestic demand, which can hurt demand for Australia’s key exports. With the US economy staying resilient while Australia faces pressure from a weaker China, protecting against downside in AUD/USD looks sensible in the coming weeks. Traders may consider buying put options to hedge the risk of a break below key support. Selling out-of-the-money call spreads may also help if the pair’s upside is now limited. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/JPY trades near 154.40 on Tuesday, down 0.95% on the day. The pair remains under pressure as the US Dollar weakens. At the same time, the Japanese Yen gets support from politics and comments from officials. US consumption data suggest weaker demand. December Retail Sales were flat at 0.0% month-on-month, below the 0.4% forecast. On a year-on-year basis, sales rose 2.4%, down from 3.3% previously.

Retail Sales Detail And Market Implications

The Retail Sales control group fell 0.1% month-on-month, after rising 0.2% in November. Retail Sales excluding autos were also flat at 0.0% on the month, missing expectations. Labour data are mixed. The Employment Cost Index eased to 0.7% in Q4 from 0.8%. Meanwhile, the four-week average of ADP Employment Change rose slightly, but remains low. The US Dollar Index trades near a more than one-week low, extending a third straight session of losses. Markets are pricing about 50 basis points of rate cuts. Nonfarm Payrolls are due Wednesday, and CPI is due Friday. In Japan, political risk has eased after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party won 316 of 465 lower-house seats. Plans to fund tax cuts without adding public debt have reduced worries about fiscal slippage.

BoJ Outlook And Yen Support

Japanese officials continue to say they are ready to act against excessive currency moves. HSBC still expects a 25-basis-point BoJ rate hike in July, but sees risks of an earlier move or an additional hike. After last year’s sharp drop in USD/JPY, the pair is still testing lower levels. It trades around 149.50 as of today, February 11, 2026. The US Dollar has weakened further after disappointing Retail Sales in December 2025. Soft data released since the start of the year has reinforced this trend. The US slowdown is becoming clearer, and it should shape strategy. January’s Nonfarm Payrolls report showed only 135,000 new jobs, well below forecasts. The latest CPI report also showed core inflation cooling to a 2.9% annual rate. Together, these numbers confirm the disinflation trend and a cooling labour market that started in Q4 2025. As a result, futures markets now price a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut at the March meeting. Traders may consider positioning for lower US rates using options on SOFR futures. Another approach is to sell out-of-the-money calls on the US Dollar Index (DXY) to benefit from further Dollar weakness. In Japan, the story is strengthening. After Prime Minister Takaichi’s strong election win last year, attention has shifted to the Bank of Japan’s next step. Japan’s national core CPI for January, released last week, unexpectedly rose to 2.8%. This has increased speculation that the BoJ could move before July. This has driven a major change in expectations. Derivatives markets now show a greater than 50% chance of a BoJ rate hike by the April meeting, a sharp shift from a few months ago. This makes long JPY positions more appealing, either by holding JPY directly or by buying USD/JPY puts that expire in Q2. The widening policy gap between a dovish Fed and a more hawkish BoJ is raising currency volatility. Last week, implied volatility on USD/JPY options hit its highest level in more than a year. This echoes the opposite setup seen in 2022, when aggressive Fed hikes pushed the pair to multi-decade highs. In this environment, it is important to manage risk with option strategies that have clear limits. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The United States held an auction for 3-year Treasury notes. The yield came in at 3.518%. That was below the prior 3-year note auction yield of 3.609%.

Fed Cut Expectations Strengthen

The move down to 3.518% shows the market is more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the next few months. A strong auction also suggests investors want to lock in today’s yields before they drop further. In our view, this points to the high-rate period of the last few years coming to an end. Recent data supports this outlook. Last week’s January Consumer Price Index showed headline inflation easing to 2.1%. That is close to the Fed’s target and reduces concerns about inflation returning. A recent jobs report also showed unemployment rising to 4.2%. Together, these figures make the case for easier Fed policy stronger. For rate traders, this supports long positions in Treasury futures, especially in the 2- to 5-year part of the curve. Instruments such as 2-Year Note (ZT) and 5-Year Note (ZF) futures may benefit if yields keep falling and the market prices in several rate cuts. These trades align with expectations for a more dovish Fed. A “soft landing”—cooling inflation without a deep recession—could also help equities. Lower borrowing costs often make stocks more attractive. That may support buying call options or futures on the S&P 500. This is a clear change from much of 2025, when recession worries shaped most debates about Fed policy.

Volatility Strategies Gain Appeal

If the Fed delivers steady, gradual cuts, market volatility may fall. The VIX, recently near 14, could trend lower in a calm policy setting. Strategies that can benefit from lower volatility—such as selling VIX futures or writing covered calls on major indices—may now offer a better risk-reward setup. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/CHF has been falling since the late-November 2025 peak near 0.8102. The daily chart shows a clear downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows. Price is still below the 50-day EMA (0.7873) and the 200-day EMA (0.8068). The pair hit 0.7605 in late January. It then bounced toward 0.7800 in early February, but turned lower again. The drop from around 0.7950 has now made that area a resistance zone. Support remains focused near 0.7600.

Key Short Term Price Action

On 10 February, USD/CHF dipped to 0.7629 and later closed near 0.7665. Price tested 0.7650 and failed to hold above it. This level has acted as a pivot since late January. The Stochastic Oscillator (14, 5, 5) is at 30.56/34.56. That is just above oversold, and there is still no clear bullish crossover. If price breaks below 0.7600, the next target is 0.7382. This comes from a measured move based on the broader decline that began from the 2022 highs. Key resistance levels include 0.7790 and the 50-day EMA near 0.7873. Swiss CPI data due on 13 February could lift volatility. The SNB is also watching the Franc closely, including the possibility of FX intervention to limit CHF strength. Last year, around February 2025, the market was strongly bearish as USD/CHF tested the 0.7600 support area. The downtrend was firm, and sellers quickly faded small rebounds. That setup pointed to more weakness in the months ahead.

Shift In Market Regime

That break below 0.7600 did occur. The pair later formed a major low near the 0.7382 target by July 2025. The move was driven by the Federal Reserve signaling a pause in tightening as US Core PCE inflation fell to 2.8% in Q2 2025. At the same time, the Swiss National Bank stayed hawkish to address stubbornly high domestic service prices. Over the last six months, USD/CHF has built a base and is trading near 0.7720. It is now sitting just above its 50-day moving average, which is starting to turn higher. Longer-term momentum has shifted from bearish to neutral, creating a different backdrop for traders. Dips below 0.7650 are now being absorbed, which contrasts with last year’s aggressive selling. For traders looking for a slow move back toward 0.7900, May 2026 call options with a 0.7800 strike may be appealing. Implied volatility is at multi-year lows, which makes longer-dated options relatively cheaper. This approach limits risk to the premium paid and offers upside if the US dollar strengthens. A more conservative idea for the next few weeks is to sell out-of-the-money put credit spreads. For example, selling a March 2026 0.7550 put and buying a 0.7450 put for protection can generate income from time decay. This trade works best if the mid-2025 low continues to act as a floor. The January 2026 US jobs report showed mild cooling. Non-farm payrolls rose by 165,000 versus expectations of 180,000. This keeps the chance of a mid-year Fed rate cut in play, which may limit any strong USD/CHF rally. Because of that, traders may watch the 0.7870 resistance area (near the 200-day moving average) as a possible profit-taking zone. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Federal Reserve’s current policy gives it time to watch how conditions unfold. In prepared remarks Tuesday in Columbus, Ohio, she said the policy rate could stay on hold for a long time. Hammack said the current Fed target rate is close to neutral. She also said economic growth has been supported by Fed policy, financial conditions, and fiscal support.

Inflation Outlook And Tariff Risks

She said inflation is still too high, and tariff risks are still on the table. She said inflation should ease as the year goes on, while noting this is only a forecast. She said both sides of the Fed’s mandate have been under pressure. She described the job market as stable, with low hiring and low layoffs. She said inflation could stay near 3% this year. She said inflation needs to move lower. Today’s comments suggest policy may stay on hold for a long time because inflation is still the main issue. Markets reacted to that message. CME FedWatch Tool data now shows many fewer expected rate cuts in 2026. January’s CPI reading of 3.1% supports this cautious view, as it shows limited progress toward the 2% target.

Market Volatility And Options Strategies

This “wait and see” stance points to a market that may trade in a range, which can reduce overall volatility. The VIX has recently stayed in a calm 14–16 range. That can make premium-selling strategies appealing for income. Still, a surprise in inflation or jobs data could trigger a sharp, short-term volatility spike, like the one seen after the December 2025 non-farm payrolls report. The job market looks balanced, often described as “low hire, low fire.” January’s jobs report showed unemployment holding at 3.8%, giving the Fed little reason to rush into rate cuts to support growth. This steadiness supports the view that policy could stay restrictive in the weeks ahead. If U.S. rates stay higher for longer than those of other major central banks, the U.S. dollar may remain strong. The Dollar Index (DXY) has already moved above 105, starting in early January as hopes for rate cuts faded. Derivative strategies that benefit from a strong dollar—such as buying calls on USD/JPY—may be attractive. It’s worth remembering how different sentiment was in late 2025. At that time, markets expected a series of rate cuts this year. That view has now mostly disappeared. This fast shift shows how closely strategies need to track incoming inflation data in the weeks ahead. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Pound Sterling fell below 1.3700 and dropped 0.2% during Tuesday’s North American session. GBP/USD traded at 1.3660 after hitting a daily high of 1.3700. The move came after the US dollar recovered from earlier losses, even though US data was weaker than expected. The pair also came under pressure from political uncertainty in the UK.

Shifting Dynamics In Favor Of The Dollar

A few years ago, we saw a similar setup when GBP/USD slipped below 1.3700 due to weak US data and political issues in the UK. In February 2026, the setup looks different. The main drivers are diverging again, but this time the shift favors the dollar. The US economy is showing unexpected strength, which is a change from the softer conditions seen in parts of 2025. January’s non-farm payrolls rose by more than 280,000, and the latest CPI report showed inflation picking up to 3.5%. With growth and inflation running hotter, the Federal Reserve is less likely to cut rates again. That helps support the dollar. At the same time, Sterling is facing pressure from uncertainty around the new government’s first full budget. UK inflation remains sticky at 2.8%, while last quarter’s GDP was flat. This leaves the Bank of England in a tough spot: it needs to control inflation, but it also needs to support a stalled economy. This lack of clear direction could weigh on the pound. Because of this divergence, the outlook for GBP/USD looks bearish into March. Traders may consider buying April-expiration put options to potentially benefit from further downside. This approach limits risk to the premium paid while still giving exposure to a drop in the exchange rate.

Options Strategy Amid Rising Volatility

UK politics, combined with stronger-than-expected US data, could increase price swings. In this kind of market, options can be appealing, since rising implied volatility can help buyers of puts or calls. We see a higher chance of a drop toward the 1.2200 area last seen in late 2025 than a sustained break to the upside. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The 4-week average of US ADP Employment Change rose to 6.5K in the four weeks ending 24 January, up from 5K a week earlier. This was the third weekly rise in a row and the highest level since the week ending 3 January. The US Dollar Index stayed rangebound near 96.85 on Tuesday, with little change after the release. Trading remained limited as markets waited for other drivers.

Adp Weekly Estimate Overview

The ADP weekly estimate is a four-week moving average of the change in total US private employment. It uses high-frequency payroll data to track near-term shifts in the labour market. A higher reading is usually linked to stronger consumer spending and faster economic growth. A lower reading is usually linked to weaker conditions. Traders often use the data as an early guide ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Nonfarm Payrolls report. A correction dated 10 February at 16:34 GMT said the 4-week average did not fall versus the prior week. It rose to 6.5K from 5K. The US labour market is showing fresh strength. The January 2026 ADP report showed a surprise gain of 195,000 private sector jobs, well above expectations. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has strengthened and is trading around 104.50. This result challenges the market view that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in mid-year.

Volatility Focus For Nfp And Cpi

At this time in 2025, we saw a similar but much smaller signal. The four-week average of ADP employment change rose to 6.5K for a third straight week. This was an early, high-frequency sign that hiring might be improving at the margin. Even so, the market reacted cautiously. The DXY stayed rangebound near 96.85. Traders largely looked past the small ADP signal and waited for the broader Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. This pattern suggests early data on its own is often not enough to drive a big currency move. With uncertainty ahead of the next NFP release, derivatives traders may want strategies that can benefit from a potential jump in volatility. A strong ADP print raises the risk that the official government report could either confirm the strength or disappoint sharply. In this setup, buying options can be more attractive than taking an outright directional trade. One approach is a long straddle on a major pair such as USD/JPY. This means buying both a call and a put option with the same strike price and expiry. It can profit from a large move in either direction after NFP, without needing to predict the outcome. Traders should also watch the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which follows the employment data. Jobs are important, but inflation will likely be the key factor shaping the Fed’s next move. With these releases close together, dollar volatility may stay elevated for several weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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