Trump has announced that Iran and Israel have agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” for 12 hours. This ceasefire is set to begin in about six hours. As of now, there has been no official confirmation from either Israel or Iran regarding this agreement.

Market Reaction

Following this news, crude oil prices have continued to fall, while US equity index futures are rising. Trump shared news about a 12-hour ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which he called “Complete and Total.” According to his announcement, the ceasefire will start roughly six hours later. However, neither Israel nor Iran has confirmed or denied this claim yet, leaving the situation unverified. The market quickly reacted to the announcement. Crude oil prices are dropping, likely due to reduced worries about supply risks in the region. On the other hand, US equity index futures are climbing, possibly indicating relief among investors or adjustments in their positions. Traders who were cautious might now be easing back in response to the temporary drop in regional tensions. In previous situations this year and late last year, we observed similar market trends when geopolitical concerns seemed to lessen. Commodities related to conflict, like oil and natural gas, often pull back, while equity-related instruments, especially index futures, tend to recover quickly. It’s worth noting that past ceasefires in the Middle East have often led to lower volatility in higher-risk assets, but those conditions can change rapidly.

Futures Positioning and Strategy

From a tactical standpoint, we’re seeing lower implied volatility in short-term oil options. This often attracts short gamma positioning seen during quieter geopolitical times. However, trying to capitalize on this opportunity early might be too soon. In three out of the last five instances where regional tensions eased, tactical buyers pulled back within one or two sessions, especially when information was unclear, as it is now. Since there’s no formal agreement from the involved parties, and previous announcements show that unverified news can lead to sharp market corrections in both crude and equity indices. Today, futures positioning in the S&P complex has shifted. A swift movement into Nasdaq futures right before the announcement suggests that there might have been some anticipation. If that’s the case, short-covering may have already taken care of some immediate concerns. We’ll watch how the opening flows in regular cash markets unfold, to see if more investors will get involved or if this was simply caution from overnight traders. In these situations, small changes in volatility products for energy and equities can mislead traders into feeling overly confident. For example, the front-month OVX has sometimes reacted too strongly to diplomatic news that quickly reverses within 48 hours. Remember what happened in late March? A similar drop in implied volatility didn’t last long, providing little benefit for passive sellers. That being said, it’s not just the announcement that matters; we need confirmation—or lack of it—within the next day or so. Market makers have already started adjusting prices for options related to Brent and WTI, indicating uncertainty rather than calm. Additionally, we see sizable open interest in WTI puts around $81.50, which may limit further declines, especially if confirmation doesn’t come. At this point, acting on unconfirmed reports could lead to poor decisions, especially with significant economic reports coming in two days that might overshadow current geopolitical news. Keep an eye on how Brent futures contract terms adjust around the second and third expiry windows—short sellers took profits quickly last time conditions eased without follow-through. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Indian Rupee dropped against the US Dollar after the US attacked Iranian nuclear sites, pushing the USD/INR close to 87.00. However, it later regained strength due to mixed US PMI data and dovish remarks from Fed Bowman, which reduced the demand for the Dollar. During the European session, the USD/INR pair stabilized, and the Rupee strengthened in the American session. This recovery was supported by strong domestic PMI figures and falling crude oil prices, helping the pair move away from 87.00. Currently, it’s trading around 86.54, but the Rupee’s outlook is still cautious due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Impact of Geopolitical Tensions

Geopolitical tensions have unsettled global markets, raising fears of retaliation in the Middle East. Crude oil prices spiked due to concerns over the Strait of Hormuz but eased as immediate supply risks were reassessed. This volatility can pressure the Rupee, especially since India heavily relies on imported oil. India’s economic dependence on imported crude poses risks if oil prices rise sharply, which could worsen the trade deficit and drive up inflation. The Reserve Bank of India may act to prevent the Rupee from falling to 87.00 against the Dollar. However, positive domestic economic signals, such as strong PMI data, provide some stability amid global uncertainties. With the USD/INR pair around 86.54, the recent fluctuations of the Rupee show a struggle between global influences and domestic strength. The earlier rise towards 87.00 was partly due to US airstrikes on Iran, which raised fears of long-term geopolitical issues. Initially, this led to a weaker Rupee as India, an energy-importing economy, braced for higher oil costs and their impact on its current account. Nonetheless, the Dollar’s subsequent decline aligned with less impressive US PMI data and a softer promise from Bowman of the Federal Reserve. This renewed interest in riskier assets and prevented further strength of the Dollar for now. It hints at a market shift, where mild US economic weakness raises questions about the Fed’s future rate hikes. Bowman’s comments suggested that the central bank might favor maintaining rates rather than increasing them, provided inflation remains steady.

Domestic Economic Indicators

In India, encouraging signs continue to emerge. Strong PMI data reflects solid business activity in both manufacturing and services, indicating healthy sector-wide demand. Meanwhile, a sharp decline in crude oil prices, following initial supply concerns, alleviates fears about increased import costs. Since India imports over 80% of its oil, fluctuations in Brent or WTI prices significantly impact the trade balance and the Rupee’s purchasing power. When global oil prices fall, the pressure on the Rupee lessens. However, the potential for sustained appreciation seems limited in the near term. Geopolitical events in the Middle East could quickly change sentiment. The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial area, and any disruption in tanker movement could raise market anxieties again. While India may not be directly involved, it remains vulnerable to oil supply disruptions. This situation means we must closely watch two developments: international energy prices and the direction of US monetary policy. If oil prices rise again, the Rupee could weaken, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to intervene subtly, helping to keep it from falling below 87.00 through forex operations or managing liquidity. Though not officially stated, similar stabilizing actions have occurred before during sudden declines. US bond yields are also important to monitor. While real yields have slightly decreased, they remain high enough to attract foreign investments, which could pull capital away from Indian assets. This situation puts pressure on the Rupee, although any changes in yield trends due to weak US economic data could provide some support for the currency. In summary, market participants should stay adaptable, interpreting each new piece of data—whether it’s a PMI release or a shift in energy prices—as important information. The path ahead won’t be characterized by straightforward trends but by gradual adjustments influenced by major themes: global energy concerns, shifting central banks, and a positive local business climate. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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South Korea’s consumer sentiment index hit 108.7 in June 2025, up from 101.8 in May. This number is the highest since June 2021. In June, consumers’ inflation expectation for the next 12 months fell to 2.4%, down from 2.6% in May. This is the lowest level since October 2021. The Bank of Korea, South Korea’s central bank, provided this data. The 108.7 reading shows that households are feeling more positive about the economy, jobs, and their personal income. A score above 100 means more consumers are optimistic than pessimistic about future conditions. The seven-point increase in just one month suggests a quick change in sentiment. This could be due to better job conditions, higher disposable income, or less pressure from rising prices. The drop in inflation expectations from 2.6% to 2.4% indicates that consumers expect slower price rises over the next year. This change isn’t just a mind shift; lower expected inflation can make consumers spend more rather than save. It can also reduce demands for higher wages. Lower inflation expectations might mean households feel less financial strain, which could boost overall spending in the short term. Looking ahead, how this affects pricing in medium-term interest rate swaps and options is crucial. The Bank of Korea will likely see this data as a reason to keep current policies rather than make immediate changes. Stability in prices meeting the 2% target gives the central bank a bit more flexibility. If perceptions of inflation stay low and sentiment remains high, we could see an increase in short-term consumer spending, signaling potential growth. Kim’s office will monitor this closely. Investors have begun adjusting rate futures to reflect a more stable inflation outlook, even as yields stay steady. With sentiment at a four-year high, the chances of a near-term policy easing are low. While the market’s reaction to this data hasn’t been loud yet, there is potential for repositioning as we move into July and watch for more consistent CPI trends. Therefore, we should prepare for changes as participants adjust their expectations before the next meeting. For instance, steepeners might attract interest if sentiment grows and short-term rates remain stable. Keep an eye on risk reversals in short-dated KRW options: while implieds may not react immediately, deltas will indicate where the focus is. As inflation expectations lower, the focus shifts to compressed breakevens. Swaption desks might be adjusting exposure, not because of current data, but due to what it tells us about consumer demand trends in the coming quarters. You won’t see many short-vol buyers unless it’s linked to specific hedges. While some model-driven desks may still maintain neutral positions, we’ve noticed momentum traders reducing their short bets in this area, waiting for new macro catalysts for direction. We’ll keep an eye on July’s business sentiment data. If it supports the current trend, short-term volatility could begin to rise, even if historical rates stabilize. For now, the market seems to lean toward a slight repricing of risk rather than a major macro adjustment.

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US stocks showed strength on Monday after an initial drop due to the US bombing Iranian nuclear sites. By lunchtime, the Dow Jones was up 0.16%, the S&P 500 rose 0.34%, and the NASDAQ increased by 0.43%. Worries about possible Iranian retaliation had impacted the markets. However, there were growing thoughts that Iran might wait before launching counterattacks, despite its threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, an important route for over 20% of the world’s oil supply.

Oil Prices and Economic Factors

Oil prices dipped slightly, with WTI Oil falling less than 1% to $73.37. Positive economic indicators helped the situation, as S&P Global’s PMI for manufacturing remained at 52, beating the expected 51. Existing home sales for May also increased by 0.8%, contrary to the predicted drop of 1.3%. Federal Reserve official Michelle Bowman hinted at a possible rate cut by July, which provided additional support. Industry news was also favorable, with Boeing up over 1% following safety updates, while IBM and Tesla stocks saw significant gains. Markets started the week strong, shaking off early anxiety tied to the airstrikes in Iran. After a cautious morning, stocks rose as traders processed news from the Gulf. The small change in oil prices suggested the market was reacting more to talk than action—for now. The earlier tensions from military actions and heated discussion around the Strait of Hormuz briefly increased volatility. However, with no immediate retaliations and energy flows stable, concerns about lasting disruptions vanished quickly. Current trading volumes and options interest in crude contracts show a measured approach, avoiding short-term panic.

Economic Data and Policy Signals

Economic data continued to support the markets. The S&P Global PMI remaining above 50 indicates ongoing manufacturing growth, despite tighter financial conditions. Housing data also surprised positively, with existing home sales showing stronger demand. This rebound, especially after a weak forecast, stabilizes asset classes sensitive to yields and mortgage rates. Bowman’s remarks hinted at potential easing sooner than previously expected, with July now considered by some market players as the time for cuts. This opens up new opportunities for positive speculation in the near term. While this doesn’t ensure anything, especially with mixed views within the Fed, the dovish message was clear enough to shift market positioning. Beyond broader economic and geopolitical issues, specific sectors made significant contributions. Boeing’s stock increase followed what seems to be renewed confidence in addressing long-standing safety concerns. This timing is interesting, as safety issues were back in the news just days ago. Still, it appears that traders viewed recent regulatory discussions as progress toward long-term fixes. Tech and auto sectors also performed well. Tesla’s gains came from strong delivery forecasts and excitement around its software plans. Meanwhile, IBM showed unexpected strength in cloud margins, attracting bullish interest in both sectors when positive results emerged. We believe short-term options strategies will remain sensitive to geopolitical developments. However, two key indicators—volatility selling and low out-of-the-money skew in indices—suggest range-bound price movements in the near term. Although risk appetite hasn’t fully bounced back, it hasn’t completely faltered either. As we watch implied volatility curves, it’s clear that near-expiry contracts are quick to adjust to geopolitical risk. Yet, many are hesitant to extend protection beyond that. We’re looking to see if a more defined trend emerges. For now, our strategy leans towards selling at the top of a range and favoring spreads over straight delta-heavy positions. The activity around rates volatility indicates a shift rather than a pullback—market pricing reflects more emphasis on potential Fed easing in the coming quarter rather than in 2025. This is particularly noteworthy as the US dollar’s performance levels out and yield curve trades show a growing consensus surrounding a summer pivot. In this period, we can expect frequent short-term fluctuations, but directional bets still feel measured without clear news signals. We’ll stay agile, focusing on relative value and market dislocations instead of making bold bets on broader trends—at least for now. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The major US indices closed lower than their highs, as the market reacted to tensions from the US entering the Iran/Israeli conflict. Initial gains came from lower interest rates and hopes that recent bombings would lead Iran to negotiate. Comments from Fed’s Bowman, similar to those from Fed’s Waller, hinted at a possible rate cut in July if inflation stays stable. The chances of a July cut rose to 23%, while the likelihood of a September cut exceeded 80%. Iran’s decision to keep the Strait of Hormuz open suggested a move away from further conflict.

Iran’s Symbolic Counterattack

The markets rallied further when Iran’s attack on a US military base in Qatar was seen as mostly symbolic. Iran’s warning and intercepted missiles that caused no damage helped ease tensions. Final numbers showed the Dow increasing by 374.96 points, or 0.89%, reaching 42,581.78. The S&P index rose by 57.33 points, or 0.96%, to 6,025.17, and the NASDAQ climbed 183.56 points, or 0.94%, to 19,630.97. The S&P closed above its 100-hour moving average and tested the 200-hour moving average. The NASDAQ also finished above its 100-hour moving average. If both indices stay above these averages, we may see continued upward momentum. Recent sessions have shown a market dealing with ongoing uncertainties while holding onto technical support levels that provide short-term clarity. The response to global events—tempered yet revealing—suggests that traders anticipated escalation but faced something less disruptive, which helped stabilize sentiment as long as tensions don’t rise again. From our perspective, the late-session rebound shouldn’t be mistaken for a complete return of risk appetite. Prices were supported not by strong conviction but by a decrease in perceived geopolitical risk. This environment often leads to wider options pricing during the day, with futures becoming more sensitive to news and price movements becoming exaggerated around known technical levels. We saw this especially around the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, which influenced positioning, particularly in tech.

Fed’s Rate Narrative

Bowman’s remarks added more clarity to the interest rate narrative, confirming that as long as the upcoming CPI data remains stable, a July rate adjustment is possible. This subtle reinforcement can lead markets to respond to consistent messaging, especially when the overall policy direction feels unclear. Waller’s earlier comments laid the groundwork for this; the reiteration shifted probability models accordingly. Futures linked to the Fed funds rate are now reflecting this change clearly. Derivatives traders must balance technical levels with future volatility pricing. While spot indices may show momentum, this is partly due to seasonal lower volumes and hedges related to policy expectations. We should also consider the impact of variance sellers, who will now reevaluate their risk tolerance given ongoing unpredictability abroad. There’s renewed interest in downside protection that wasn’t visible two weeks ago. We’ve noticed new inflows into short-dated puts, especially in broader indices. This suggests that even though markets closed higher, the overall sentiment is more cautious than enthusiastic. Callable spreads and vertical structures are being adjusted mid-week more actively than usual. While the overall strength in equities suggests calm, the shift in volatility risk premium deserves attention. As long as implied volatility remains steady and realized volatility stays low, options market participants will price in stability—even if only temporarily. We’re observing areas where profit-taking has happened consistently this month. Short gamma exposure has increased near these levels, which if broken with volume, could lead to further gains in a chaotic manner. In this context, patience is crucial. The speed of response will shift from central banks back to traders. With the current trends in cross-asset correlations and the strength in large-cap growth stocks, it’s better to limit directional trades and focus on delta-neutral strategies for the short term. The data suggests it’s not the right time to chase gains, nor to back off without a proper trigger. In the coming days, we should watch calendar spreads around key expirations closely. Short volatility plays may be profitable, but only if executed with tight risk controls and a clear understanding of upcoming events. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The GBP/USD exchange rate increased to 1.3500, bouncing back from a low of 1.3369. This rise was partly due to comments from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, who indicated a possible rate cut in July. In the UK, the Flash Services PMI rose to 51.3, while the US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was at 52. However, the Services PMI fell from 53.7 to 53.1. Middle East tensions added to market uncertainty as the US struck Iran’s nuclear sites, prompting Iran’s parliament to consider closing the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this situation, the White House is seeking a diplomatic solution. Iran responded with missile strikes on Israel and may take further actions soon.

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD’s upward trend encounters resistance at the 20-day SMA of 1.3508, aiming to challenge levels of 1.3550, 1.3600, and the year-to-date high of 1.3631. If the pair closes below 1.3500, a pullback targeting the 50-day SMA at 1.3399 may happen. Recently, the British Pound was particularly strong against the New Zealand Dollar. As GBP/USD approaches the 1.3500 mark, it’s evident that Bowman’s recent comments surprised the market, giving the pound a boost just when it seemed to stall. The market viewed her comments on a July rate cut as a necessary adjustment due to ongoing disinflationary pressures and mixed US economic signals. Consequently, we saw renewed interest in selling dollars, readjusting market positions ahead of the core PCE report. Meanwhile, a slight increase in UK services activity hints at some resilience, although it remains fragile. The Flash Services PMI’s rise above 50 indicates mild expansion, but it’s not significant enough to change monetary policy expectations. Nonetheless, the lack of further decline helped keep pressure on the pound limited. We have observed before that weaker US data combined with slightly positive UK figures tends to favor a short-term bullish trend in GBP/USD. How this unfolds will rely heavily on whether the Bank of England surprises markets in July or stays with a cautious approach.

Market Sentiment

Overall, market sentiment is shaky. Escalations in the Strait of Hormuz and the broader Gulf region are pushing up oil prices and affecting currency flows. Earlier, investors had sought safety in the US dollar, but Washington’s mixed signals between military action and diplomacy complicate this safe haven story. Initial reactions in oil and gold suggest many traders believe diplomacy will prevail—for now—though the risk of further retaliation keeps uncertainty alive. Currently, the upward path for cable appears stable, provided the pair stays above its short-term moving average. The 20-day SMA, now at 1.3508, is a vital threshold. We are closely monitoring it—if it breaks above this level, the pair could quickly test the 1.3550 level. Resistance levels above are at 1.3600 and the yearly high of 1.3631. Each level holds potential for increased volatility depending on market positioning towards month-end. If the price falls and cannot hold above 1.3500, it might shift market sentiment. In that case, attention will turn to the 50-day SMA at 1.3399. A break below this could prompt a reassessment of risk appetite due to selling pressures and a shift to safer assets. In other markets, sterling has performed well against the Kiwi, which seems intentional. There’s a clear policy divide and distinct growth prospects between the UK and New Zealand at this point. A growing trend is emerging to pair sterling’s strength against commodity-linked currencies facing pressure from declining global demand. We expect more traders to emphasize this cross-trade as macro themes evolve in July. The coming weeks will be crucial for determining continuing trends or reversals, especially as macro data from both countries coincides with geopolitical updates. While the general direction appears clearer, actual price movements will determine if current market positioning is correct—or if it needs adjustment. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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North American trading on June 23, 2025, saw a significant drop in oil prices due to easing tension in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by $6.13, closing at $67.71. This followed a U.S. warning about potential retaliatory strikes from Iran, reducing fears of a prolonged conflict. In the financial markets, U.S. 10-year yields dropped by 3.5 basis points to 4.34%. Gold rose by $5, reaching $3,373, while the S&P 500 increased by 1.0%. The British pound had the strongest currency gains, while the Canadian dollar struggled. Concerns from the Federal Reserve influenced currency movements, especially with Fed member Bowman calling for a rate cut. Market participants reversed recent trends as the risk of further conflict declined. Stock markets rallied, and the U.S. dollar’s strength faded. This weakness was evident in the USD/JPY exchange rate, which reversed a 200-pip gain, reflecting uncertainty about Fed policy amid fluctuating oil prices. The euro approached 1.16 and was expected to finish the session at a peak. Global central banks, including the European Central Bank, hinted at slowing economic activity. Confidence in the central banks, particularly the Fed, wavered due to changing policies. On Monday, markets had a chance to stabilize. Geopolitical tensions eased as the U.S. prepared for Iran’s reaction, reducing broader fears. This shift drained momentum from energy markets, leading to a rapid drop in WTI prices. Similar reactions have been seen in the past when risks lessen: quick repositioning and reassessment. The extent of Monday’s move indicates that traders might now view any further escalation as less likely, at least for now. In the bond market, the usual response to reduced risk was seen: yields fell. The slight decrease in the 10-year yields was not substantial but adjusted expectations. Clearly, some bets on a more aggressive policy stance have softened. Bowman’s call for lower rates added to the bond market’s outlook, influencing traders to shift their positions. In currency pairs, the momentum shifted. The yen gained strength, not due to news from Japan, but rather because of overall dollar weakness. Last week’s sharp rise in USD/JPY, around 200 pips, quickly reversed. This shift is more about uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy rather than any developments in Japan. One day the Fed seems decisive, the next it wavers—this uncertainty unsettles the markets, especially in foreign exchange. The euro’s gradual rise was also significant. Its near approach to 1.16 reflects a clearer view of economic expectations in Europe, even if they are lower. The markets don’t react well to mixed signals. With both the ECB and Fed delivering unclear messages, confidence tends to fluctuate. However, the euro’s rally is more connected to dollar weakness than any positive narrative for the eurozone. Gold also experienced a slight increase, with a $5 rise occurring while oil dropped by over $6. This suggests that while some investors may be unwinding safe haven trades, they are still cautious. Gold remains close to its highs, indicating that some risks are still being monitored. In the equity markets, the situation is clearer. Relief over oil prices and a less aggressive Fed outlook combined to create a modest yet broad boost in stocks. A 1% gain for the S&P 500 fits well within these conditions. When external stress eases and the outlook changes, risk assets tend to benefit. Looking ahead, timing will be crucial. When markets react quickly to geopolitical news, traders should avoid focusing solely on headlines. Instead, they should observe where volatility lingers—such as in the options market or through CME rate futures—for clearer signals. While false rallies can happen, changes in expectations provide a better sense of market positioning. Paying close attention to yield curves and rate spreads, especially between the U.S. and other nations, may be beneficial. If dovish language spreads among central bankers, carry trades that rely on rate differences may see adjustments. Early indicators have already pointed to this potential shift. Additionally, when oil prices fall sharply, demand forecasts are often reassessed. Equity sectors linked to energy, shipping, and industrials might adjust, creating new opportunities or risks for those trading derivatives tied to these areas, depending on institutional money movements. Finally, as volatility increases and clarity remains hard to find, the short-term outlook may involve rapid fluctuations in response to subtle hints from central banks or unexpected data. This isn’t just noise; it’s an early attempt to establish new consensus prices.

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The Dollar Index is weakening as Federal Reserve officials hint at a softer approach in response to rising tensions in the Middle East. Fed speaker Michelle Bowman indicated that a rate cut could happen in July, especially with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming testimony. US President Donald Trump announced strikes on Iranian targets, raising fears of retaliation from Iran. There are growing concerns about potential disruptions to oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as tensions escalate.

Economic Indicators And Market Responses

The Dollar Index initially jumped above the 99 mark but later fell back down. S&P Global’s June PMI data showed manufacturing steady at 52, while services dropped to 53.1, both suggesting the economy remains resilient. Fed Governor Bowman is pushing for a possible rate cut, supporting earlier comments from Governor Waller. Powell’s testimony on Tuesday will be closely observed for hints about the Fed’s policy direction in December amid concerns about slowing inflation. The US Dollar Index faced resistance at the 50-day Simple Moving Average but bounced back from a support level at 98.00. If it closes above this average, it could reach 100.57, reflecting a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. The RSI indicates slight downward momentum. The Fed’s interest rate policies directly affect the strength of the USD. Quantitative Easing and Quantitative Tightening also play significant roles, with the next move from the Fed highly awaited.

Monetary Policy Perspectives

Bowman’s recent comments suggest that July might be a crucial time for monetary policy changes. While nothing is set in stone, these remarks often serve as hints to the market. The idea of flexible rates, alongside Waller’s earlier comments, hints that there might be a consensus forming about adjusting borrowing costs. Currently, it’s clear that if inflation continues to decline and job numbers remain stable, but not excessively strong, the Fed could consider a rate cut without losing credibility. Powell’s upcoming testimony will be even more significant in this context. With inflation steady and some cooling seen in the services PMI data, Powell might choose to reinforce a message of patience regarding rate tightening. The June services reading of 53.1 is not alarming, especially with steady manufacturing at 52, suggesting moderate growth—sufficient to avoid immediate concerns but not robust enough to keep rates high indefinitely. At the same time, we must consider the risks from the Middle East. Trump’s announcement of military action raises the possibility of retaliation from Iran, potentially threatening oil supplies. Depending on how things unfold, the Strait of Hormuz could face shipping restrictions or maritime incidents. History shows that such disruptions can impact energy prices and create volatility in foreign exchange markets. The initial strength of the Dollar Index above 99 was temporary. It struggled to hold above the 50-day Simple Moving Average, often a key sentiment indicator. Although the DXY rose from the 98.00 level, a jump above 100.57 may indicate a technical break rather than a shift in momentum. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement acts more as a marker than a final goal. RSI trends suggest some buying pressure may be fading. This doesn’t mean a drop is imminent, but it warns against taking overly aggressive bullish positions. If Powell’s testimony dampens expectations for rate hikes, or if oil prices rise due to geopolitical tensions, it could reinforce existing caution. Overall, the Fed’s approach to liquidity, whether easing or tightening, remains the main driver for the dollar compared to other currencies. When holding positions that depend on direction, adjusting exposure before Powell’s remarks is crucial. Relying too much on a trend before the testimony could lead to mismatches with the Fed’s communications. Markets have misinterpreted dovish signals in the past. Currently, it’s wise to proceed cautiously, reducing high-leverage trades on USD pairs until clearer signals emerge. Observing trading volume around resistance levels and positioning ahead of key rate decisions could provide better insights than reacting to news after it happens. In this market, being patient and responsive to new data is more prudent than making hasty predictions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The economic calendar for Asia on Tuesday, June 24, 2025, is quite empty. No major releases are expected that could greatly influence foreign exchange markets.

Calendar Features

The calendar displays times in GMT. The last column shows previous results from the last month or quarter. If applicable, the column right before it gives the consensus median expectation. With few figures scheduled in the region, market participants might look for other signals. While data from Asia is crucial for local currencies and bonds, the lack of new information limits immediate price changes. Traders may need to shift their focus to other global events that could impact momentum. We see this quiet period as a challenge rather than a lull. When there’s little direct news, markets often react more strongly to surprises. Even slightly unexpected figures from Europe or North America later in the day can lead to big reactions across different asset classes, especially when there’s less liquidity in the Asian session.

Previous Numbers and Consensus

The last column of each listing shows previous numbers, which serve as a reference point, paired with the second-to-last column showing consensus. It’s not just about what happened, but what was expected and how it compares to reality. When expectations are closely grouped, the surprise threshold shrinks, leading to stronger moves from even minor differences. In quieter weeks, our focus shifts to watching market positioning more closely. We look for quick moves due to technical factors or unwinding rather than new information. Longer positions held during low-volatility times can quickly change if stop-losses trigger in unexpected ways. That’s where the true opportunities—and risks—lie. During these weeks, looking at commodities like oil and metals becomes useful. Movements in these markets may not always align with currencies, but when they diverge from expectations, they often reveal more about risk appetite than headlines or formal economic data. We’ve noticed that bond yields tend to react more quickly than major currencies during similar times, which is worth observing closely. Focusing on the sparse calendar is about understanding that volatility doesn’t wait for scheduled events. With fewer data points in a session, there’s more room for momentum-driven actions and instinctual trading. Responses can be quicker, sometimes going too far without immediate fundamentals. This is where the difference lies between disciplined and reactive positions. The current calendar emphasizes the need for vigilance; it offers no false signals and no security. Days like this can pivot on futures flow rather than early reports or central bank notes. We pay attention to the rising options volume in recent days for insights on where protection lies. When few factors tie prices down, those volumes often help define the ranges. Stay flexible. Being aware often outperforms predictions, especially when headlines are lacking, but positioning remains active. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold prices are rising again due to increasing geopolitical tensions between Iran and the U.S. This spike in tension follows U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, which triggered Iran’s retaliatory actions. As a result, more investors are turning to Gold as a safe investment. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cuts are affecting Gold prices. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s recent comments have sparked speculations in this direction. Everyone is now paying attention to Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming testimony. Geopolitical risks, along with rising oil prices due to potential supply issues, are shaping this situation.

Technical Analysis Of Gold

Gold is trading just under a resistance level, supported by the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages. It faces key resistance around $3,400. If prices drop, they may retest $3,342. Investor sentiment varies as some look for risk while others prefer safe havens like Gold during uncertain times. Market sentiment determines whether investors feel “risk-on” or “risk-off.” In risk-on phases, certain currencies tend to rise due to their strong ties to commodity exports. In contrast, currencies like the U.S. Dollar and Swiss Franc usually strengthen in risk-off periods. Last week, we witnessed a significant shift in capital as geopolitical events and monetary policy signals influenced markets. Fresh military tensions have invigorated Gold, which has historically been a safe haven during times of doubt. This recent increase isn’t coincidental—it came after military escalations. The link between safe-haven assets and news events is now more evident than ever. When the Fed discusses possible interest rate changes, the impact goes beyond just treasury bonds and credit markets. It affects various assets. Bowman’s comments created speculation that caused yields to fall, making non-yielding assets like Gold more attractive. What Powell says next could shift market momentum again, so we can expect interest rate indicators to be more responsive to upcoming guidance. We do not anticipate immediate solutions, which keeps the demand for safe havens, like Gold, high for now.

Implications Of Oil Prices

Rising oil prices, driven by fears of production disruptions, are important to consider. They suggest inflation pressures and highlight how quickly supply chain issues can resurface. This trend affects not only energy traders but impacts inflation predictions, rate expectations, and short-term commodity relationships. Technically, Gold is trying to break through levels it has struggled to surpass recently. Support from the 20-day and 50-day SMAs is important, but slight pullbacks to $3,342 would not necessarily end the current trend. The key question is whether it can push above recent highs with strong trading volume. $3,400 is more than just a number; it’s where past rallies have faltered. A clear breakthrough could attract new investment from momentum traders. Investors are continually reassessing their risk exposure. In risk-off scenarios, the dollar usually strengthens while higher-risk currencies decline. Watching how these flows interact with interest rate indicators and commodity-linked currencies in forex markets is crucial. Not all currency pairs will behave the same, with stronger reactions likely from emerging markets or commodity-focused pairs. Ultimately, traders need to evaluate their positions at key levels. Recent fluctuations in option premiums reveal a surge in uncertainty. It’s essential to adapt quickly around resistance levels since price movements are more abrupt than usual, rather than gradually rising. Delaying entries based on slow indicators may not provide the needed edge. We are seeing more rapid price changes than typical. Expect temporary shifts in investor sentiment leading up to the next central bank announcement. Chart patterns and open interest in derivatives may guide decision-making, but external factors are driving current momentum. Fresh news events can quickly change pricing. Staying responsive, especially with higher-leverage strategies, requires clear guidelines for adjusting stops and targets. From a broader perspective, the dollar’s strength during risk-off periods remains a reliable reference point, but its timing will continue to depend on perceptions of safety and real yield trends. Keep positions flexible. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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