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Societe Generale says AUD/USD is nearing its 2023 high after core CPI boosted the breakout move

AUD/USD moved above 0.71 and moved closer to its 2023 high after Australia’s January CPI came in hotter than expected. The pair gained 0.74%, its biggest one-day rise since 11 February, with spot back near 0.7150. January headline CPI held steady at 3.8%. Core trimmed mean inflation ticked up to 3.4% from 3.3%. On the month, the core measure rose 0.3%.

Market Repricing And Technical Backdrop

Markets now fully price a second 25 bp RBA hike, taking the cash rate to 4.10% in May. AUD/USD has moved into a short consolidation phase after breaking out of a multi-month range. On a pullback, first support sits at the February low of 0.6890. Above 0.7150, key technical targets are 0.7220 and 0.7400. Governor Bullock is due to speak later, and capital expenditure data is due tonight. The article notes it was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. Last year, the Aussie dollar broke higher after a surprise inflation print pushed it above 0.7100. Markets quickly priced in several RBA hikes, expecting the move to continue. The rally later faded near the 0.7150 area, which marked the early-2025 high.

Implications For Derivatives Positioning

Today’s setup is different, even though the RBA cash rate is now 4.35% (above the 4.10% priced back then). Q4 2025 inflation showed headline CPI cooling to 3.4% year over year, which has kept the RBA firmly on hold. That removes the main catalyst behind last year’s strong buying. At the same time, the U.S. Federal Reserve is still more hawkish. Its policy rate remains at 5.50% after a stronger January 2026 jobs report showed 225,000 new jobs. This rate gap favors holding U.S. dollars over Australian dollars and limits the room for a sustained AUD rally. Forward markets now point to a wider rate differential for at least the next six months. For derivatives traders, this backdrop makes outright AUD/USD call buying harder to justify in the near term. Implied volatility has been edging higher, so selling call spreads could be one way to earn premium. However, a ceiling “around 0.6800” does not fit with the current spot level near 0.7150 and may be a typo; in practice, the call-spread strikes would typically sit above spot. Commodity prices also matter. Iron ore, a key Australian export, has dropped below $120 per tonne after trading near $140 for much of late 2025. That weakness adds another headwind for the Australian dollar. With these forces in play, last year’s upside targets of 0.7220 and 0.7400 look much less likely in the near term. Traders may instead look at puts or put spreads to hedge against a move back toward the 0.6500 support area seen last October. Overall, the bias looks sideways to lower. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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FXStreet data show silver trading at $90.96 an ounce, up 4.19% from $87.30 earlier

Silver (XAG/USD) traded at $90.96 per troy ounce on Wednesday. That is up 4.19% from $87.30 on Tuesday. Prices are up 27.96% since the start of the year. By unit, silver was priced at $90.96 per troy ounce and $2.92 per gram. These figures reflect the latest quoted levels in US dollars.

Gold Silver Ratio Update

The Gold/Silver ratio was 57.06 on Wednesday, down from 59.16 on Tuesday. This ratio shows how many ounces of silver equal the value of one ounce of gold. Silver prices can move for several reasons. Key drivers include interest rates, the US dollar, and demand for physical silver or price-tracking products like exchange traded funds. Supply factors also matter, including mine output, silver’s higher abundance than gold, and recycling. Industrial demand can also change prices. Silver is widely used in electronics and solar energy. Economic conditions in the US, China, and India can also affect demand. Silver often tracks gold, and the Gold/Silver ratio helps compare how the two metals are priced versus each other. With silver now above $90, implied volatility in the options market has jumped. This makes simple long futures positions more costly to hold. As a result, more traders are shifting to strategies like call spreads. These can capture more upside while limiting risk. This approach looks sensible, since silver is up nearly 28% year to date.

Market Strategy Considerations

The move in the Gold/Silver ratio below 60, to 57.06, is an important signal. It confirms that silver has been stronger than gold recently. This differs from much of 2025, when the ratio stayed above 80 and suggested silver was undervalued. Traders should keep watching this ratio. If it keeps falling, it would point to silver staying in favor for now. This rally also seems to have stronger support from industrial demand. That is different from 2025, when investment buying was the key driver. In January 2026, the International Energy Agency reported that global solar panel installations in 2025 beat forecasts. These installations consumed an estimated 160 million ounces of silver. This type of steady demand can help support prices in a way that was not present during earlier speculative peaks, such as 2011. Monetary policy is also helping. The Federal Reserve turned more dovish in its final meetings of 2025. After that, the US dollar weakened. A weaker dollar makes silver cheaper for buyers using other currencies, which can boost demand and prices. If markets keep expecting lower rates, silver may continue to have upward momentum. China’s manufacturing PMI data, released in early February 2026, showed an unexpected rebound. This supports the industrial case for silver, especially in electronics. While geopolitical risk dominated the story in early 2025, the focus has shifted toward global recovery. If this remains the main theme, pullbacks may attract buyers. After such a fast rise, traders may want to hedge. One possible approach is selling out-of-the-money cash-secured puts. This can generate income and may allow traders to buy silver at a lower effective price if the market drops. With volatility high, option premiums are elevated. That can make selling options attractive for traders who think the $85–$90 area may now act as strong support. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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HSBC expects EUR/USD to revisit recent range highs as U.S. risks are priced in despite trade uncertainty

EUR/USD has held steady, even as EU–US trade policy remains uncertain. The pair is trading above what interest-rate differentials suggest, which implies that a large part of the US policy risk is already priced in. In the weeks ahead, EUR/USD is expected to drift back toward the top of its recent range. It is not expected to make new highs.

Policy Risk Largely Priced In

Expansionary fiscal policy and a pickup in production could support the euro. However, weak wage growth and the lack of a strong credit cycle are likely to limit further gains. The European Central Bank’s impact on the euro is expected to be small. No ECB rate changes are expected through 2026. EUR/USD appears stable despite continued EU–US trade discussions that dominated headlines in late 2025. With the pair trading near 1.0850, much of the US policy risk looks to be reflected in the current price. We expect the pair to edge higher toward the top of its recent range over the coming weeks. Support for the euro comes from fiscal measures still working through the economy and a modest recovery in industrial output. For example, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for January 2026 rose slightly to 50.2, which signals mild expansion. On its own, however, this is unlikely to trigger a strong rally.

Options Positioning For Range Bound Upside

The euro’s upside still looks capped by weak domestic fundamentals. Wage growth in Q4 2025 was a soft 2.8%, and the latest ECB bank lending survey shows credit conditions remain tight. With the ECB not expected to change rates this year, a clean break above 1.1100 looks unlikely. With that backdrop, selling out-of-the-money puts may be a way to collect premium while betting the pair will not fall sharply. A more direct approach is to use bull call spreads for March or April expiries. For example, buying a 1.09 call and selling a 1.11 call targets a modest rise while keeping risk defined. This spread fits the view that EUR/USD can move toward the top of its range without breaking above it. The short 1.11 call helps pay for the 1.09 call, which can lower the overall cost. It also helps protect against the risk that weak wage and credit growth keeps the pair from moving into a higher trading range. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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WTI slipped to around $65.90 during European trading hours as rising US crude inventories fueled oversupply concerns

WTI fell for a second session and traded near $65.90 per barrel during European hours on Wednesday. The drop followed US inventory data that renewed worries about oversupply, ahead of an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report due later in the day. The American Petroleum Institute (API) said US crude stocks rose by 11.4 million barrels in the week ended 20 February. That reversed the previous week’s 0.609 million-barrel decline.

Supply Risks And Nuclear Talks

Markets are also watching supply risks ahead of a third round of US–Iran nuclear talks. In his State of the Union address, President Donald Trump said he preferred diplomacy. He also accused Iran of rebuilding its nuclear programme and developing missiles that could reach the US. Iran’s deputy foreign minister said Tehran would do “whatever it takes” to reach a deal with Washington. Traders are also monitoring the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil flows. Any escalation there could disrupt supply. Traders are also weighing demand risks tied to new US trade measures. Trump’s 10% global tariff took effect on Tuesday, and steps are under way to raise it to 15%. A year ago, an 11.4 million-barrel jump in US crude inventories pushed prices below $66. That memory of oversupply is now clashing with a very different market. This suggests that simply betting on further declines could be risky. Tariff worries in 2025 have broadened into fears of a wider economic slowdown. The International Energy Agency recently cut its 2026 demand growth forecast by 100,000 barrels per day, citing weakness in key Asian markets. The latest EIA report for the week ending February 20, 2026, also showed a modest crude build of 2.8 million barrels, reinforcing the message of softer consumption.

Tight Supply Versus Soft Demand

On the supply side, conditions look much tighter than a year ago. OPEC+ is holding to production cuts through the second quarter, and the US–Iran nuclear talks remain stalled. That keeps a geopolitical risk premium in the market. Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could quickly wipe out today’s supply cushion. These mixed signals—soft demand but tight supply—point to higher volatility in the weeks ahead. This setup may be less suited to simple directional trades and more suited to strategies that benefit from sharp price swings. Options traders may consider straddles or strangles to take advantage of the uncertainty. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) is near 38. That is elevated, but still below the extremes seen in early 2022, when it surged above 70. This suggests options prices are not yet fully reflecting the risk of a major supply shock, which could create an opportunity. In this view, buying volatility now could pay off if geopolitical events force a repricing. With that in mind, buying out-of-the-money call options on WTI futures expiring in April or May may help protect against a sudden, supply-driven rally. At the same time, holding some puts could help limit downside if recession fears outweigh supply constraints and push prices back toward the low $70s. This balanced approach is designed for a market being pulled in two directions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Sterling–yen climbs past 211.00 to a two-week high as softer BoJ hike expectations pressure the yen

GBP/JPY extended Tuesday’s rally and rose for a second day on Wednesday. It climbed above 211.00 in the first half of the European session, hitting its highest level in more than two weeks. The yen weakened after reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi voiced concerns about further rate hikes during a meeting last week with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. Japan also nominated two reflation-leaning members to the BoJ board. This pushed markets to scale back expectations for how fast rates will rise.

Risk Mood And Dollar Dynamics

A stronger appetite for risk lowered demand for the yen as a safe-haven, which supported the cross. The US dollar also eased on worries that President Donald Trump’s trade policies could hurt growth, which helped the pound. The move higher was also supported by technical buying after Tuesday’s break above 209.50–209.60. Even so, analysts said the upside may be limited. Traders are increasingly pricing in a Bank of England rate cut as early as March. At the same time, geopolitical risks and the chance of Japanese intervention to slow yen weakness could cap further gains in GBP/JPY. Looking back to late 2025, GBP/JPY surged after breaking above 211.00. As of February 25, 2026, the broad fundamental picture is still in place, with the cross now consolidating near 214.00. The interest rate gap between the UK and Japan remains a key driver of this strength.

Policy Divergence And Market Positioning

The cautious approach from the Bank of Japan that we saw last year has now become the clear policy stance. Japan’s national core inflation for January 2026 came in at a modest 2.1%, giving the BoJ little reason to deliver the aggressive rate hikes some had expected. This lack of action continues to weigh on the yen. By contrast, the rate-cut story for the Bank of England has shifted. UK inflation data for January 2026 showed core inflation still high at 3.9%, well above the BoE’s target. As a result, money markets now see the first cut arriving no earlier than the third quarter of 2026, which keeps the pound supported. For derivatives traders, this setup still favors long exposure. One approach is to buy GBP/JPY call options with May 2026 expiries and strikes around 216.00 to target further upside with defined risk. Another is to sell out-of-the-money put spreads below 210.00 to earn premium while the uptrend holds. Intervention risk from Japanese authorities remains important to watch. Verbal warnings often increase when USD/JPY reaches major psychological levels, and that typically overlaps with strength in GBP/JPY. If the pair moves into the 215.00–217.00 zone, traders should monitor comments from finance ministry officials. A sharp drop in global risk sentiment could also trigger a fast unwind of long positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Sterling rises broadly after Bailey’s dovish BoE comments, except against antipodeans, up 0.23% near 1.3520 vs USD

Pound Sterling rose against most major currencies, but not against the antipodean ones. It gained 0.23% to near 1.3520 versus the US Dollar during Wednesday’s European session. This move came despite dovish comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. On Tuesday, he told Parliament’s Treasury Committee there is room for interest rate cuts if inflation returns to the 2% target.

Bailey Keeps Rate Cut Timing Unclear

Bailey did not say a cut would happen at the next policy meeting. He called a rate cut at the next meeting “a genuinely open question”. On Monday, Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor urged two to three rate cuts in the near term. He pointed to downside risks to employment and signs that inflation pressures are easing. A softer US Dollar also helped GBP/USD. The US Dollar Index fell 0.2% to around 97.65. The Dollar weakened after President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address to Congress. He praised economic achievements and criticised the Supreme Court for ruling against tariffs.

Looking Back At Early 2025

At this time last year, in early 2025, the Pound was rising even as the Bank of England pointed clearly towards rate cuts. Markets focused on dovish comments from Governor Bailey and other MPC members, who were worried about rising unemployment. A weak US Dollar also helped lift GBP/USD towards 1.35. Since then, conditions have changed a lot. The two rate cuts in mid-2025 did not bring inflation fully under control. January 2026 data showed inflation at a stubborn 2.8%, still above the 2% target. As a result, expectations have shifted. Futures markets now price in only one possible BoE rate cut for the rest of this year, far fewer than the two or three expected back then. On the other side of the pair, the US Dollar did not stay weak. Stronger economic data and a Federal Reserve focused on sticky service-sector inflation pushed the Dollar Index from the 97s to around 104.50 today. This strength is the main reason GBP/USD now trades closer to 1.2550, well below the levels discussed a year ago. Because of this gap, traders may want strategies that can benefit from large moves around key data releases. Buying straddles or strangles on GBP/USD options ahead of the next BoE meeting or a UK inflation report could make sense. These strategies can profit from a big move either up or down, as the market is split between sticky inflation and a slowing economy. For traders with a directional view, the earlier strong downtrend in GBP may be fading now that inflation limits what the BoE can do. A cautious long position in GBP futures could be considered, as much of the dovish repricing may already be priced in. Hedging with short EUR/GBP positions could add protection, since the Eurozone economy shows deeper signs of weakness. However, the jobs risks flagged in 2025 have not disappeared. The UK unemployment rate rose to 4.5% last month. If the labour market weakens further, the BoE could be pushed to change course, which would hurt long GBP positions. For that reason, tight stop-losses are advisable on any bullish Sterling trades in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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NZD/USD extends second day of gains in European trading, hovering near 0.6000 after Trump’s SoTU

NZD/USD rose for a second straight day and traded near 0.5990 during European hours on Wednesday, moving closer to 0.6000. The pair climbed after the US Dollar weakened following President Donald Trump’s first State of the Union address of his second term. Trump said his administration had delivered a “turnaround for the ages,” pointing to lower inflation and stronger economic performance. He also highlighted actions on illegal immigration and fentanyl. He added that higher tariffs could be placed on countries that “play games” with trade agreements, after the Supreme Court struck down several global levies.

Fed Policy Outlook

NZD/USD gains may be limited if the US Dollar finds support from expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged for longer. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said it may be appropriate to hold rates at the current level for some time. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said policy is “well-positioned” to manage risks. Last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% and said policy would remain accommodative as inflation moves toward the middle of its target band. Traders see a low chance of the first rate hike happening before October or December. The latest push in NZD/USD toward 0.6000 looks like a short-term political reaction, not a lasting change in fundamentals. We view this rally as a chance to position for a pullback. The US Dollar’s brief weakness after the State of the Union speech may be hiding the factors that still support the currency. Our bearish view is mainly based on the wide gap between the two central banks’ policies. The Federal Reserve has kept the Fed Funds Rate at 5.25%–5.50% since mid-2023 to fight inflation, which averaged above 3% through 2025. By contrast, the RBNZ is holding the Official Cash Rate at a much lower 2.25%. This gives the US Dollar a clear yield advantage. Looking back at 2025 data, the US economy stayed resilient, while New Zealand struggled with a slow recovery after a short recession. New Zealand inflation has eased to 2.8% year over year, which is within the RBNZ target band. That gives the RBNZ little reason to raise rates soon. In the US, the Fed remains alert to the risk that inflation could pick up again.

External Drivers And Trade Headwinds

External forces are also pressuring the New Zealand Dollar. Growth in China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, has remained slow. This has reduced demand for key exports. In addition, the Global Dairy Trade Price Index—a key measure of New Zealand’s export income—has fallen 7% over the past six months, creating another headwind for the Kiwi. Against this backdrop, the rally toward 0.6000 may offer an attractive level to open bearish positions. Derivatives traders could consider buying NZD/USD put options to benefit from a decline while limiting upside risk. Another approach is to build short positions using NZD futures contracts, based on the view that the pair could revisit last year’s lows. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Brent drops more than 1% as markets watch Iran risk amid hopes for diplomacy and a US military buildup

ICE Brent settled just over 1% lower after reports suggested Iran may be close to a deal, ahead of more US–Iran talks on Thursday. At the same time, the US has continued to build up military assets in the Middle East. President Trump also set a 10–15 day deadline, which would land in early March. The market is still carrying a risk premium because it is unclear whether a deal will be reached, and there is still a risk of military action if it is not. Prices remain highly sensitive to headlines tied to the talks and regional security.

Market Sensitivity To Iran Talks

US inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed US crude stocks rose by 11.4m barrels over the week. That was far above expectations for a 1.9m barrel increase. The next OPEC+ meeting is set for 1 March, and supply increases are expected to resume from April. This is happening even though the oil balance suggests the market does not need extra supply. With Brent trading around $82 a barrel, the market remains highly reactive to geopolitical headlines from the Middle East. Prices are being pulled between supply concerns and diplomatic signals, creating uncertainty in the weeks ahead. Traders should be prepared for sharp moves after any new developments. This setup feels familiar. Similar US–Iran tensions in 2025 pushed a large risk premium into prices ahead of diplomatic deadlines, only for it to fade quickly when positive news emerged. The risk of military action was a constant theme then, much like the shipping risks we track in the Red Sea today.

Options Positioning For Elevated Volatility

With these mixed signals, derivatives traders may want strategies that can benefit from higher volatility. The market is caught between a supply-driven drop and a geopolitically driven spike, which makes simple directional trades riskier. Options strategies such as long straddles or strangles may perform well no matter which way prices break in early March. On the bearish side, recent inventory data argues against higher prices. The latest EIA report showed a surprise build of 4.2m barrels in US crude stocks, far above expectations for a small draw. This may signal weaker underlying demand than current prices imply—something also seen after large API builds last year. Traders should also watch the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for March 4th. With prices above $80, there is a growing view that the group will avoid deeper cuts and may signal more supply returning in Q2. That would likely cap rallies that are not driven by a major supply disruption. For the coming weeks, options can help traders define risk clearly. Buying puts can protect against a sudden drop if the geopolitical risk premium disappears after a diplomatic breakthrough. Holding long calls keeps exposure to a sharp jump if tensions escalate into direct conflict. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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As risk appetite improves, the US dollar fails to sustain its rebound and remains under pressure

The US dollar stayed firm against other currencies on Tuesday after a volatile start to the week. It then eased on Wednesday as investor mood improved. Eurostat is expected to publish revised January Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data. In the US, markets are watching comments from Federal Reserve policymakers. US equities jumped on Tuesday, and the USD Index fell from its intraday highs before ending the day slightly higher. Early Wednesday in Europe, US stock index futures were flat, and the USD Index was lower near 97.70.

Dollar Inflation And Fed Outlook

During Asian trading on Wednesday, President Donald Trump delivered his State of the Union speech. He said there is no inflation and described “tremendous growth.” He also linked tariffs to an economic turnaround and said trading partners want to keep existing trade deals despite a Supreme Court ruling. EUR/USD traded near 1.1800, up more than 0.2% on the day after finishing Tuesday slightly lower. USD/JPY, after three straight daily gains, traded around 156.00. Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Masanao Ozaki said monetary policy details should be left to the Bank of Japan. Gold fell more than 1% on Tuesday but held above $5,100, then rebounded toward $5,200. Australia’s CPI inflation was unchanged at 3.8% in January versus 3.7% expected, and AUD/USD rose above 0.7100. GBP/USD traded above 1.3500. Last year at this time, we saw the US dollar lose momentum, with the DXY sliding toward 97.70 after political claims of “no inflation.” Today looks different. The January 2026 CPI report came in at 3.1%, showing inflation is still a key issue for the Federal Reserve. With inflation staying firm, the Fed is likely to keep a hawkish tone, which makes a long, steady dollar decline less likely in the next few weeks. Because Fed commentary can surprise markets, traders may want strategies that benefit from volatility rather than picking a direction. One example is buying a straddle on the USD using options on an ETF such as UUP. This can position you for a large move up or down, while reducing the risk of betting on the wrong direction in a headline-driven market.

Usd Jpy Options Income Strategy

A year ago, USD/JPY was moving sideways around 156.00 as markets waited for signals on Bank of Japan policy. Since then, the BoJ started normalizing policy in late 2025, which has supported the yen. This morning, USD/JPY is closer to 149.50, making 156.00 an important technical resistance level. That setup can make selling out-of-the-money call options on USD/JPY attractive for income. A strike around 155.00 could offer a meaningful premium and still leave room for smaller rebounds. A return to the old highs may be less likely unless the BoJ unexpectedly shifts away from its tightening bias. Last February, gold was climbing toward $5,200 an ounce and stayed strong despite other market moves. Now, gold is struggling to hold $4,900 as higher US real yields make non-yielding assets less appealing. US 10-year real yields have risen above 2.1% in February 2026, which is very different from the low-yield backdrop that supported gold in early 2025. If you are worried about more downside, buying put options on gold, or on a gold ETF like GLD, can provide a direct hedge. This can help protect a portfolio from a break below key support levels, especially if upcoming US jobs data is strong and reinforces the Fed’s hawkish stance. We also remember strong risk-on sentiment in equities at this time last year, but the market mood is now more cautious. The VIX is hovering around 19, up from the low teens through much of early 2025. This suggests investors are more concerned about corporate profit margins, and it can make aggressive bullish derivative trades riskier than they were a year ago. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/JPY holds above 155.35 as buyers pause, awaiting a break above 156.00 on upbeat charts

USD/JPY found support near 155.35 on Wednesday after pulling back from a two-week high set the day before. It traded around 155.75, almost unchanged on the day, after rising over the past week. After the Fed struck a hawkish tone, the US Dollar still saw fresh selling. Traders were worried about new trade-policy disruptions linked to US President Donald Trump. Geopolitical risks also lifted demand for safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen, which added pressure on USD/JPY during the session.

Japan Policy Signals And Yen Dynamics

Reports said Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi voiced concerns about further rate hikes in a meeting last week with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. Japan also nominated two reflationists to the BoJ board. This lowered expectations for faster rate increases and helped limit JPY strength. Repeated rebounds from the 200-day EMA breakout area, followed by a move higher, suggest the technical tone is improving. The MACD is above its signal line and back in positive territory, while the RSI sits near 54. Resistance stands at 156.90, then 158.40, with 160.00 above that. Support is at 155.00, then 153.50, and 152.70 near the 200-day EMA. In late 2025, we highlighted a constructive setup, and the bullish USD/JPY case played out as expected. The pair broke above the 156.00 and 158.40 resistance levels we tracked and later peaked just above 160.00 in December 2025. After a healthy pullback, USD/JPY is now consolidating near 157.80, which may offer a fresh entry area.

Policy Divergence And Trade Volatility

The key driver remains the wide gap between central bank policies, which has grown even larger. US inflation for January 2026 came in at a firm 3.2%, keeping the Federal Reserve hawkish at its latest meeting. In contrast, Japan’s national CPI last month was only 2.1%, allowing the Bank of Japan to signal that any tightening will be very gradual. This gap in policy continues to limit meaningful Japanese Yen strength. In late 2025 data, Japan’s Tankan survey for large manufacturers showed weaker business sentiment, supporting the BoJ’s cautious stance. This softer backdrop for the yen can help support long USD/JPY positions. For derivatives traders, this setup favors strategies that benefit from a slow grind higher or limited downside. Consider buying call options with strikes around 159.00 and 160.00, with expirations in April or May 2026. This targets a possible retest of prior highs while capping risk to the premium paid. Still, US trade-policy headlines can spark sharp volatility, as we saw last year. Surprise tariff news could trigger a rush to safety and a quick, temporary drop in USD/JPY. To help manage this risk, a small position in out-of-the-money puts can work as a hedge against bullish exposure. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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