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The BOE’s Taylor predicts that five rate cuts will be needed in 2025 based on his stance.
The Bank of England’s Taylor recently suggested that the bank might need to cut interest rates five times in 2025.
Taylor is known for his more lenient approach within the Bank, having previously supported a rate cut.
His recent statement is quite notable. During his remarks, Taylor proposed that five cuts could be necessary in 2025. This isn’t a small issue; it shows ongoing worries about weak domestic demand and the risk of falling short on inflation targets next year.
Taylor has already demonstrated his support for a softer policy. He voted for a cut in the last meeting while the rest of the committee chose to keep rates steady. This isn’t just a theoretical idea about future rates; it signals an important shift in the discussions happening within the Bank.
Let’s break it down a bit more. Inflation has been stubbornly high, but it’s starting to decline more consistently in key areas. This trend likely gives doves like Taylor more confidence. Although wage growth remains high in some sectors, it has decreased from its peak. Furthermore, services inflation, which was a concern, is slowly easing. This explains part of his statement.
For those watching short-term interest rates or market volatility, this is significant. If we interpret Taylor’s tone correctly, it hints at a growing belief among some within the Bank that there might be no need to keep policy tight well into next year. This affects how we’ll gauge future decisions—not just for their immediate impacts, but also for guidance and potential disagreements among committee members.
Expectations for short-term rates may now have more room to decline beyond current pricing, as long as inflation stays in check and growth remains weak. The UK economy still shows signs of softness in several areas. Retail sales are inconsistent, housing activity is sluggish, and business confidence remains low. This is the context Taylor is considering.
More cautious policymakers may not easily support five cuts at this moment. But if the economic outlook doesn’t improve and price pressures keep easing, it might bring additional committee members closer to his view by early next year.
The real risk isn’t runaway inflation—it’s slow progress and missed opportunities for recovery. For those monitoring rate volatility or options ahead of the next MPC meetings, this shift in perspective is crucial, especially if data weakens further in the third quarter.
So, what should you do in the near term? Start by re-evaluating how fixed income futures and rate-dependent volatility products might respond, not only to economic reports but also to speeches from MPC members. Watch for differences in tone between meeting minutes and actual votes. We are likely to see some members, including Taylor, more inclined to support early easing, even if they are currently in the minority.
Gold price hovers around $3,340 as European trading anticipates upcoming US employment data
**Gold Price and Market Sentiment**
Before the NFP data release, all eyes are on the ADP Employment Change report. It predicts 95K new jobs in June, an increase from 37K in May. The US Dollar is bouncing back, thanks to strong JOLTS data, which is limiting any increase in gold prices.
The US Dollar Index, which compares the Greenback to six major currencies, is nearing 97.00. Factors like the upcoming tariff deadline and legislative changes are providing support for gold prices.
Gold is currently hovering near a trendline in an Ascending Triangle pattern, facing resistance at the $3,500 level. The 20-day EMA at $3,342 indicates an unclear trend, and the 14-day RSI shows a sideways movement.
If gold breaks above $3,500, it could reach new highs around $3,550 and $3,600. On the other hand, if it falls below $3,245, it might slide down to $3,200 or even $3,121.
**Central Banks and Gold Reserves**
Gold has always been a reliable store of value and a means of exchange, especially in unstable times. Central banks are increasing their gold reserves, amassing 1,136 tonnes in 2022. Countries like China, India, and Turkey are leading the way in boosting their gold holdings.
Gold usually rises when the US Dollar and US Treasuries decline. Economic uncertainties or fears of a recession can elevate gold prices because of its safe-haven status. Additionally, lower interest rates typically help gold prices rise, while a strong Dollar can limit its gains.
Many factors can influence gold prices. Geopolitical instability and recession worries can cause quick price shifts. Although gold doesn’t yield interest, trends in interest rates can impact its value. A weaker Dollar often results in higher gold prices.
Different markets and investment instruments exist, so it’s vital to do thorough research before making investment choices due to potential risks. The information shared reflects the author’s views and may not reflect official policies. The author is not responsible for external links or stock positions mentioned.
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Taylor from the BOE believes rate cuts are unnecessary due to economic slowdowns and labor market concerns.
Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor recently shared his thoughts on the UK’s economic outlook. He is worried about a slowing economy and emerging problems in the labor market. He also indicated that inflation might fall below the desired target. Taylor stressed the importance of considering various factors, which suggests that there isn’t a strict plan for future interest rate changes.
Despite his concerns, Taylor believes that energy price shocks will decrease by 2026. However, he sees a greater chance of economic challenges, such as weak demand and trade disruptions, during that time. Currently, markets see a 76% chance of a rate cut at the next policy meeting in August, with about 53 basis points of cuts expected for the rest of the year.
Economic Uncertainty Grows
Taylor’s remarks highlight increasing uncertainty about monetary policy, especially when looking at the latest economic data. His recognition of slowing growth and fragile employment figures indicates that the economy is losing momentum. The chance of inflation dropping below the 2% target seems more likely now, shifting expectations that it would remain stubborn. Since projections for future interest rates are not firm, we should view statements like Taylor’s as a sign of caution rather than a detailed plan. This suggests that policymakers are prioritizing flexibility over commitment, often indicating that external factors are more influential than domestic ones. As energy pressures are expected to lessen by 2026, the concern about inflation may diminish. In the meantime, we face short-term challenges from weak demand and problems in global supply chains. The focus now is more on growth risks rather than fears of overheating the economy.Expectations for Rate Cuts
At this point, market signals indicate a strong possibility of a rate cut as soon as August. It seems that upcoming policy moves will likely favor easier conditions, reflecting worries about fragile consumer spending and cautious hiring. The approximately 53 basis points forecasted for cuts this year shows a shift in sentiment away from previous concerns about persistent inflation. These developments suggest a need to reassess how sensitive our positions are to short-term rate changes. Traders dealing with rate-linked products should examine their exposure across different time frames, especially considering a potential drop in short-term yields. A steepening trend in the yield curve is possible, particularly if disinflation aligns with stabilizing long-term growth expectations. Volatility around important economic data is likely to rise, especially if labor market indicators continue to worsen. This may require a more cautious approach during significant macroeconomic releases. With forward guidance becoming less predictable, reactions will probably depend more on actual data. From a tactical standpoint, the current uncertainty often leads to quick adjustments in pricing, especially around rate decisions, labor data, or inflation reports. Opportunities may emerge from differences between actual volatility and what options markets are pricing, especially over the next three to six months. A helpful way to track changes in sentiment is by looking at swap spreads and terminal rate expectations. If the market pushes for earlier easing, it might show a significant shift in positioning. Risk reversals could also begin to favor downside protection for rates. Overall, we are leaning towards pricing changes that suggest a softer response from the Bank, but only if economic signals remain consistently weak. Right now, markets estimate that probability to be just over 75%—a significant figure, yet not purely speculative. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.After reaching a peak of 1.3788, GBP/USD stays around 1.3700 as bearish momentum continues
The GBP/USD pair is currently showing bearish momentum, trading around 1.3700 after reaching a multi-year high of 1.3788. This follows some small gains on Tuesday as the US Dollar Index tries to recover from a long losing streak.
In July, the momentum for GBP/USD slowed after five months of gains, peaking at 1.3787 on Monday. The rise has been supported by a weak dollar and the Bank of England’s cautious approach regarding interest rate cuts.
Wave Analysis
Recent analysis indicates that GBP/USD is in the early stage of wave ((iii)) of 3 of (3) in a significant impulse cycle. The internal wave structure shows a channel pattern, with subwaves i and ii of ((iii)) forming. The rise above the high of minor wave i suggests that wave ((iii)) is moving forward. Investing involves risks and the possibility of significant loss, including emotional stress. It’s essential to do thorough research before making any investment choices, as opinions presented do not reflect those of the organization cited. The views in this article might not represent its official policy or position. Currently, it seems the upward trend of the GBP/USD pair has paused. The strong rise that started earlier this year and lasted several months appears to be losing steam. After hitting a high of 1.3787, selling pressure is emerging. Now, the 1.3700 level is crucial to watch technically and psychologically. The US dollar’s tentative recovery, seen in the broader US Dollar Index, is impacting the performance of sterling. There’s a feeling that the trend of dollar weakness may be shifting—though not decisively. A stronger US dollar directly pressures this pair, making it harder for sterling to rise.Monetary Policy Impact
Expectations regarding monetary policy remain a key factor. The Bank of England has not shown urgency about rate cuts, providing some support. However, this caution isn’t enough to counter a strong recovery in the dollar. Close attention is being paid to Powell and his team for any changes in tone—warnings about inflation, labor markets, or growth could strengthen the dollar. A stronger dollar can increase volatility in derivatives linked to sterling. From a wave perspective, the movement still favors a bullish outlook in the larger timeframe. This analysis places the pair within a rising impulse structure—specifically, in wave ((iii)) of 3 of (3). Here, subwave i has finished; subwave ii formed a corrective leg; and a new upward wave seems to be forming. However, the rise from the subwave i high must continue to maintain the bullish cycle. If the current move stalls, it may indicate that the correction is either incomplete or that the pattern could be invalidated. In the short term, those trading derivatives should watch key reaction zones, especially between 1.3650 and 1.3730. A confirmed break below this range could suggest the advance is weakening more than initially thought. On the other hand, if the price stays above this area and forms a higher low, it may open the door for renewed optimism towards 1.3850 and beyond. We anticipate periods of volatility as various factors—dollar positioning, BOE expectations, and technical setups—compete against each other. It’s crucial to manage risk carefully. For those trading leveraged positions, seeking confirmation of bias without considering pullback levels might lead to significant losses. Wave analysis looks to the future but relies on a clear structure to remain effective. If the identified impulsive move stalls within the next 100 pips, the likelihood of a more complex correction increases significantly. In that case, it will be wise to mark zone boundaries and avoid acting on minor breakouts until more confirmation is received. Be vigilant for potential catalysts—macro insights from the US labor report, speeches by Bailey’s team, and any changes in forward rate expectations. These scheduled reports often disrupt short-term patterns and introduce unexpected volatility. While sterling’s medium-term outlook may still be upward for now, short-term traders should consider tighter targets, more careful stop placements, and assess whether the pattern continues to behave impulsively. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Wunsch supports a mildly accommodating policy approach and is comfortable with market interest rate expectations.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is planning a gentle support for its policies. Markets expect one last rate cut of 25 basis points before the year ends, likely in December.
ECB policymaker Wunsch has shown no concerns about current interest rate expectations. These market forecasts indicate a cautious approach to changing monetary policy soon.
Wunsch’s comments suggest he is comfortable with how rates are priced now. This means the central bank is not looking to disrupt credit conditions unnecessarily. From our viewpoint, this acceptance of market expectations allows implied volatilities to remain stable, possibly decreasing a bit if encouraging data confirms the expected rate trend.
The expected 25 basis point cut has been gradually integrated into futures curves and swaps, particularly for December. This has narrowed rate differences against certain counterparts. Hence, we might see moderate flattening of short-end curves if upcoming economic data stays weak but not worrying. Any changes in wage pressures or inflation could affect the timeline, especially if price trends start to strengthen.
As the policy tightens less, there may be increased demand for short-dated euro options, especially at or just above the money level. Front-end risk reversals could slightly shift as traders assess the chances of earlier or later easing. This situation may also increase activity in calendar spreads as traders seek to benefit from or hedge against timing expectations.
We note that implied rates for shorter terms remain steady, indicating some uncertainty or hedging activities. However, unless forward guidance improves significantly, the gamma in shorter maturities may slowly decline with lower realized volatility. There’s an opportunity here for selective premium selling, provided there is adequate protection in areas where skew remains slightly high.
The cautious stance from policymakers, along with still-strong macro data in parts of the eurozone, reduces the likelihood of urgency returning to the curve without any significant shock. Instead of making aggressive moves, we find it wiser to keep flexible downside hedges and closely watch ECB comments for any signs of concern about market pricing or inflation.
In the coming weeks, option structures sensitive to policy directions beyond December may gain more attention, especially if forward guidance hints at a pause or conditional approaches. Traders focused on rate or currency path dependency may find a short but valuable window to shape their positions with an eye on volatility repricing timing.
US MBA mortgage applications increase to 2.7%, up from 1.1% previously
Mortgage applications in the US increased by 2.7% as of June 27, up from a previous rise of 1.1%. This indicates stronger demand for mortgages.
The EUR/USD pair is settling slightly below the 1.1700 level, as the US dollar shows weakness. Ongoing discussions center around the future of the Federal Reserve under President Trump’s administration.
GBP/USD stays robust, trading above 1.3700, nearing three-year highs. This strength comes amid a declining dollar and expected statements from the Bank of England (BoE).
Gold Price Trends
Gold prices are on a gentle upward trend but remain below the $3,350 mark. The market is cautious due to possible shifts in Federal Reserve leadership under President Trump. Bitcoin Cash is aiming for a 52-week high, having jumped by 6.39% recently. This cryptocurrency shows bullish momentum, approaching the $500 mark. Tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict raise concerns about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, adding uncertainty to the oil markets, given its importance for global shipping.Recommendations For EUR/USD Traders
Traders interested in the EUR/USD pair can choose from various recommended brokers that offer competitive spreads, quick execution, and strong platforms suitable for all trading levels. The recent rise in mortgage applications by 2.7% might indicate a change in household sentiment, possibly due to slightly lower rates or improved short-term affordability. This could signal a mild rebound in consumer borrowing interest, at least for now. The lending environment is still adapting to larger economic trends, so traders should pay close attention to upcoming indicators, especially in housing and consumer sectors. In the currency market, the EUR/USD pair’s stability near 1.1700 suggests hesitation among traders despite a weak dollar. The gap between daily highs and current levels seems to indicate underlying doubts, particularly regarding future monetary policy amid changing political influences. The evolving situation around the Federal Reserve—especially with growing political pressure—continues to impact exchange rates. Positions in this pair might remain limited until we see clearer signals from yield differentials compared to eurozone debt. Meanwhile, the strength of the pound reflects differing expectations between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. With the pound at levels not seen in several years, there may be opportunities for tactical adjustments. Bailey’s upcoming remarks are likely already factored into the prices, but they may increase near-term volatility, especially with references to interest rate pacing or economic conditions. The pound’s resilience indicates that traders are still considering potential rate hikes. Gold’s cautious rise, still under $3,350, shows ongoing uncertainty. While gold usually benefits from weaker US yields, constant worries about central bank stability and geopolitical issues mean that even traditional safe-haven investments are acting cautiously. We are monitoring real yield changes, as even small adjustments could lead to significant moves in futures. Bitcoin Cash’s rise to near its one-year high—up 6.39% recently—signals broader optimism in digital assets. We see that liquidity has strengthened on days with substantial inflows, indicating that trend-following strategies are gaining momentum again. However, these trends have been short-lived in the past, and any breach above the $500 mark must be sustained to provide further technical confirmation. Careful risk management is essential given the past volatility of this asset. Oil markets are preparing for possible disruptions. Rising tensions between Israel and Iran could impact tanker routes, and any real threat to the Strait of Hormuz would likely lead to higher prices for near-term crude contracts. This situation is not just about headline risks—it encompasses actual oil flow logistics. We’ve observed similar patterns before, where premiums spike before stabilizing. Traders need to act quickly, but maintaining heightened awareness is crucial in such external scenarios. We view these developments as interconnected parts of a larger, reactive system. Pricing behavior across different asset classes will largely depend on political developments and clarity from central banks. Staying engaged with bid-ask ratios, timing of policy comments, and volume shifts—especially during overlapping trading sessions—will benefit those actively trading. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Gold futures trade around 3,346.3, showing neutral conditions with clear bullish and bearish thresholds.
Gold futures are trading around 3,346.3, close to today’s pivot point. The market is neutral, allowing both bullish and bearish trades based on set thresholds.
For intraday trading, you can take a bullish approach above 3,347.4, with partial profit targets at 3,350.0, 3,352.8, 3,354.1, and 3,358.1. For a bearish approach, enter below 3,341.7, aiming for targets at 3,340.2, 3,337.9, and 3,333.7. After reaching the bullish target of 3,352.8, it’s wise to adjust the stop-loss to the entry price.
Key Technical Levels
Today’s essential technical levels are as follows: – **Point of Control (POC):** 3,347.4 (the price with the highest volume) – **Value Area High:** approximately 3,353.0 – **Value Area Low:** around 3,341.7 – **VWAP:** roughly 3,346.3, offering insights into dynamic support and resistance. For traders, the bullish setup is at 3,347.4. The POC indicates the highest trading volume and is an important pivot. If price deviates from the VWAP, it can create opportunities for profit taking. The tradeCompass recommends adjusting stop-loss after hitting the second profit target. This analysis reflects the current market state, backed by volume data and VWAP insights for better understanding. Currently, gold futures are trading within a narrow range, just below an important volume threshold. The market lacks a clear direction, which could lead to quick reversals or range-bound movements. It’s best to wait for confirmation before making any directional trades. Now, let’s dig into the key levels. The POC at 3,347.4 shows where the most trading volume occurred today. This level helps us gauge market balance—if the price moves above it, sentiment may turn positive; if it dips below, selling pressure likely increases. A strong move above this level could signal real upside momentum, while hesitation or failure to maintain the level could pressure bullish trades. On the bullish side, targets like 3,350.0 and 3,352.8 are realistic and clearly defined. If reached smoothly, adjusting the stop-loss to breakeven minimizes risk. Beyond these targets, prices may become more sensitive to changes in sentiment or broader economic factors.Bullish and Bearish Setup
For a bearish trade, the focus is on the price falling below 3,341.7. This level connects with the lower band of the current value area. If breached, expect tests of lower levels, especially if activity increases below 3,340.2. Understanding these levels helps us prepare without guesswork. From a broader perspective, we look at the VWAP, currently around 3,346.3, as a reference for fair value. When prices stray far from it, traders typically seek mean reversion or take profits, indicating exhaustion. When the VWAP is closely aligned with the POC, as seen here, it creates a compression zone, suggesting potential larger price movements ahead. In the upcoming sessions, pay close attention to how prices behave near 3,347.4. If volume increases and prices stay above this level, the bullish trend may continue. Conversely, if price is rejected above this level and moves downward with strong volume, protecting your position becomes essential. Keep your entries simple. Look for clear movements supported by participation, especially as targets approach. Always follow through once set thresholds are met. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Investors await US employment data for clearer insights amid fluctuating prices around $36.00
Silver is currently around the $36.00 mark as the market awaits more US job data to gauge what the Federal Reserve might do with interest rates. Recent US reports showed job openings were higher than expected and the ISM Manufacturing PMI improved, which has strengthened the US Dollar.
Technical indicators suggest that the market is uncertain, with Doji candles appearing on the daily chart and the 4-hour RSI around 50. Over the past three weeks, silver has been trading between $35.40 and $37.35, following a rise from early May lows.
If silver drops below $35.40, it could confirm a bearish head and shoulders pattern, which may push prices down to around $34.10 and $33.43. However, resistance between $36.60 and $36.85 is limiting any upward movement towards the June 18 high of $37.35.
Historically, silver is valued for its practical uses and as an investment. It can be traded physically or through ETFs. Its price is influenced by geopolitical events, interest rates, industrial demand, and movements in the US Dollar, particularly in electronics and solar energy. The Gold/Silver ratio helps to assess their relative values since both are considered safe-haven assets.
Since silver is hovering around $36.00, its price action is strongly related to broader trends driven by US economic data. These numbers affect expectations about monetary policy. Last week’s data on job openings and the rise in the manufacturing PMI boosted the US Dollar, which in turn affected dollar-denominated commodities like silver.
Recent charts show a lack of clear direction in short-term trading. Doji formations suggest uncertainty, and the 4-hour Relative Strength Index remains flat around 50. This indicates that neither bulls nor bears are in control. Silver has been consolidating in the $35.40 to $37.35 range, following a sharp rise since early May, but there has been little follow-through.
If prices fall below $35.40, it could confirm a bearish pattern, targeting $34.10 and $33.43. On the upside, resistance in the $36.60 to $36.85 range is preventing advances, hindering attempts to retest the June 18 high of $37.35. Without a clear close above that level, the outlook remains neutral to slightly bearish.
Silver reacts based on several macro factors, including industrial demand from sectors like electronics and solar energy, as well as the strength of the dollar. Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve influence the market as investors anticipate potential rate changes based on ongoing labour and inflation data. These updates should be monitored closely for their impact on metals demand. For example, rising interest rates tend to negatively affect non-yielding assets like silver, while supply-demand fundamentals also play a crucial role in determining value.
The gold-to-silver ratio remains an important indicator. When it widens, it helps us assess whether silver is underperforming or outperforming gold. Both metals are viewed as safe havens, especially during geopolitical instability or inflation fears, so changes in sentiment can lead to quick price shifts.
As we look ahead to upcoming US economic reports related to employment and inflation, this data could reignite market volatility. It’s crucial to base decisions on price movements rather than predictions. Currently, the short-term technical indicators show caution, so it’s wise to keep positions sized for volatility and watch for volume increases if a breakout happens. Clearly defined risk parameters are essential; a drop below this month’s lower threshold could mean a downward momentum shift.
Clear trends and direction are likely to arise with forthcoming data. In the meantime, it’s best to respond to price movement rather than speculation.
Rehn highlighted the ongoing risk of inflation staying below the 2% target, even as the safety of euro assets improves.
The European Central Bank (ECB) should pay close attention to the risk of inflation staying below its 2% target for a long time. Joint borrowing in Europe for defense could strengthen the euro by creating a new safe asset.
Concerns about not hitting the inflation target are rising at the ECB. While data over the summer will provide more clarity, markets currently don’t see this risk. This is seen in the recent rise in German 10-year yields after the last rate cut.
This article highlights two main points: growing worry at the ECB about inflation staying low for too long and the potential creation of a common eurozone debt to finance defense projects, which could make the euro more appealing worldwide. Markets expect tightening rather than easing, even after a policy shift in June. German government bonds, typically considered safe, saw their yields rise after the rate cut. This suggests that investors think inflation isn’t falling as much as the ECB fears.
Our experience shows that changes like these don’t happen in isolation. Inflation expectations strongly influence future pricing, especially in swaps and futures markets. Traders have been hesitant to predict deeper cuts, and this is justified. Longer-term rates remain high—much higher than expected after a rate cut. This disconnect between short-term policies and long-term market pricing should not be ignored. It seems premature to expect a consistent pattern of further cuts.
Additionally, we’ve noticed that Bund trading volumes are influenced by various macro factors, not just ECB actions or inflation reports. This indicates that the market stays alert to upcoming fiscal policies and geopolitical events, which can quickly affect spreads.
Then there’s the topic of joint borrowing for defense. If this plan moves forward, a shared euro-area asset could work like US Treasuries, providing a relatively liquid and trusted benchmark. This might lead to increased investment in the region. In this scenario, investment in high-quality credits could increase, which might flatten yield curves and muddle duration signals. Consequently, the short end of the market may attract more attention than usual.
Although volatility has decreased since earlier this year, it still exists. In options markets, implied volatility has risen from early May lows, indicating a revaluation is happening. Whether this results from inflation uncertainty or fiscal changes, the key takeaway remains: market conditions are dynamic, and bets in either direction carry risks.
Peripheral bonds have reacted calmly, but we are closely monitoring for potential spillover effects. Any signs of disagreement on the joint funding strategy, or hesitation from key fiscal players, could lead to wider spreads, especially in less liquid names. In this context, the appeal of core yields as safe investments strengthens; therefore, options positioning is a valuable guide.
The ECB’s comments suggest that worries about falling short of their inflation target do not necessarily mean a series of future cuts are coming. Instead, they may simply be preparing to maintain flexibility. Policymakers seem cautious, and rightly so, as a return to consistent disinflation could complicate the future—especially if the US Federal Reserve continues its current course or even tightens further.
We should recognize that rate differentials are important, particularly for cross-currency flows. If the euro is backed by a new safe asset while rate differentials decrease, the currency implications could be sharper than currently anticipated.
In the coming weeks, flexibility in positioning is crucial. While forward guidance may remain unclear, market pricing suggests that traders are taking a stance. Currently, that stance does not indicate an expectation of prolonged policy support. The July core inflation report could shift this view only if it significantly deviates from expectations.
From the current market structure, forward volatility still leans towards higher rates, reflecting where traders expect terminal rates to settle—especially towards year-end. So, as always, focus on tail risks, not just the center. It is unlikely that the market will stay quiet for much longer.
UOB Group analysts predict USD/CNH will fluctuate between 7.1530 and 7.1730, with possible declines.
Current price changes indicate that trading will likely stay within the 7.1530 to 7.1730 range. Over the long term, downward momentum is increasing. If the USD falls below 7.1450, watch for 7.1300 as the next key level.
In the last 24 hours, it looked like the USD might drop below 7.1500, but there was uncertainty about reaching 7.1450. The USD fell to 7.1500, then bounced back, closing nearly unchanged at 7.1611. Trading should stay between 7.1530 and 7.1730.
