After three rising sessions, EUR/JPY holds near 182.70 and challenges the 50-day EMA around 183.00
EUR/JPY paused after three straight days of gains, trading near 182.70 during European hours on Monday. Price was slightly above the top of a descending channel. The 14-day RSI was 47, staying below 50.
The pair traded just under the 50-day EMA at 182.80 and slightly above the 9-day EMA at 182.62. The 9-day average has flattened after a pullback, while the 50-day EMA is losing upward momentum.
Ethan Currie says Supreme Court scrapped IEEPA tariffs and cut average rates, though the White House can still raise tariffs
The US Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The ruling is expected to cut the US average effective tariff rate by about half.
Tariff revenue collected in 2025 totalled nearly $290bln. The administration has used customs duties as a fiscal backstop, partly tied to the costs of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Shift Toward Alternative Tariff Authorities
With IEEPA tariffs now limited, attention is shifting to other legal tools. Section 232 is often described as allowing uncapped tariffs, with no stated limit on either the rate or the duration. Current sector tariffs already cover areas like metal products, autos, and lumber. More sector-based tariffs could follow as the White House launches new trade reviews, similar to the process used ahead of “Liberation Day”. Friday’s Supreme Court decision adds major uncertainty. Expect a jump in market volatility as the administration rewrites its trade strategy. In the coming weeks, options are likely to be the main focus as markets reprice risk across sectors. Watch for higher VIX premiums, similar to last year’s trade disputes, when volatility indices jumped by more than 15 points in just a few days after comparable announcements. This shift will create clear short-term winners and losers. Companies hit hardest by the now-voided IEEPA levies may see a relief rally. Sectors targeted for new Section 232 investigations could face immediate pressure. We are watching high-import sectors such as electronics and industrial machinery. U.S. Census Bureau data from late 2025 showed these categories made up more than $900 billion in annual imports.Positioning For Sector Specific Tariff Risk
We should prepare for targeted tariffs on new product groups beyond the existing measures on metals and autos. Since the Commerce Department opened a Section 232 investigation into foreign-made semiconductors and EV battery components last month, puts on technology and automotive ETFs may be a sensible hedge. The administration also needs to replace the nearly $290 billion in tariff revenue collected in 2025, which makes high-value import sectors more likely targets for new levies. Expect this uncertainty to spill into foreign exchange markets, too. The US dollar will likely become more volatile against the currencies of major trading partners, especially the euro and Mexican peso. Their trade surpluses with the US rose by 4% and 6%, respectively, in the final quarter of 2025. Options on currency ETFs can help manage risk from sudden, policy-driven moves. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Investors reassess US trade policy and Iran tensions, leaving the dollar weaker as 15% import surcharge concerns grow
We remember the uncertainty in early 2025, when U.S. trade policy shifted to a flat 15% import surcharge. At the time, many feared a broad sell-off across Treasuries, equities, and the dollar. Geopolitical tensions with Iran also added to the instability. At the same time, those risks helped keep some demand under the dollar.
That period of trade friction still affects the economy today. New Commerce Department data shows the U.S. trade deficit has widened to more than $65 billion per month, pointing to ongoing imbalances. This suggests dollar volatility will likely remain sensitive to any new trade announcements from Washington.
Dollar Range Shift And Options Positioning
Earlier, many expected the DXY to stay stuck in a 97.00–98.00 range. That view did not last, and the dollar strengthened. With the DXY now trading consistently above 103, traders may want to use options that fit this higher range, instead of betting on a return to 2025 levels. Selling out-of-the-money puts on the dollar can be one way to collect premium while aligning with this new setup. The Federal Reserve’s dovish tilt in January 2025 also proved temporary, as inflation pressures returned later that year. With the Fed Funds rate now holding firm in the 5.25%–5.50% range, the market is pricing a “higher for longer” path. Traders may want to prepare for ongoing rate volatility by using options on Treasury futures to hedge against sudden shifts in central bank guidance. Risk tied to Iran has also been joined by other global hotspots, which continues to support demand for safe-haven assets. In this kind of market, holding long volatility positions can make sense as a hedge against sudden shocks—possibly through VIX call options. These tools can offer a relatively cost-effective way to protect portfolios from geopolitical flare-ups that have become more frequent.Geopolitics Volatility And Portfolio Hedges
Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.As long as USD/CAD stays below 1.3700 and the H4 200-SMA, bears remain in control, with price hovering around 1.3645 support
USD/CAD was steady early Monday. It found support near 1.3645 but stayed below 1.3700 in the early European session. The pair paused after last week’s pullback from the monthly high, and price action remained quiet.
The US Dollar eased after hitting its strongest level since January. It then came under pressure after President Donald Trump announced new US tariffs of 15%. At the same time, weaker crude oil prices supported USD/CAD because they weighed on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.
Usdcad Caught Between Softer Usd And Weaker Cad
Oil fell from a more-than-six-month high as markets worried that a trade war could hurt growth and fuel demand. As a result, USD/CAD was pulled in two directions: a softer USD on one side and a weaker CAD on the other. Technically, USD/CAD has failed several times above 1.3700. This has created a bearish double-top on the daily chart. On the 4-hour chart, the 200-period Simple Moving Average is sloping down at 1.3718 and has capped rebounds. Momentum indicators also lean bearish. The MACD line is below the Signal line and the histogram is negative. The RSI is 49, slightly below the midpoint. Looking back at our early-2025 analysis, this bearish setup played out as expected. The repeated failures near 1.3700, which we highlighted at the time, signaled weakness. The “sell America” trade triggered by the 15% global tariffs pressured the US Dollar through that year, and the pair later broke down sharply.Central Bank Divergence And Strategy Implications
In early 2025, weaker oil offered some support to USD/CAD. Since then, that has flipped. With WTI crude now holding above $85 per barrel, the commodity-linked Loonie has strong support. This is reinforced by the Bank of Canada, which is keeping its policy rate at 3.0% to fight inflation, most recently reported at 3.2% in January. The gap in central bank policy is now a key issue for traders. After the 2025 tariff shock slowed the economy, the US Federal Reserve’s key rate stands at 2.5%, which is 50 basis points below Canada’s. This spread makes the Canadian Dollar more attractive to hold and should continue to weigh on USD/CAD. Over the next few weeks, we think derivatives strategies should favor more downside in USD/CAD. Traders could consider buying put options to benefit from a move below 1.3250. Another approach is selling call spreads with a cap near 1.3400 to earn income, based on the view that upside remains limited. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Bob Savage of BNY expects Israeli and Hungarian rate cuts as easing inflation keeps currencies elevated and firm
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy, Bob Savage, expects rate cuts from the Bank of Israel and the Hungarian National Bank. Inflation is falling, while both currencies remain strong. He says the Israeli shekel (ILS) and Hungarian forint (HUF) are acting like a form of tightening. The key issue is whether any easing is a short-term precaution or the start of a longer cycle.
In Israel, the Bank of Israel meets on Monday, February 23. Markets expect a cut to 3.75% after a surprise move in January. Inflation has been negative month over month for three straight months and is expected to stay below 2.0%.
Israel Rate Decision And Shekel Tightening
The report says domestic activity is strong, while USDILS is near multi-year lows. It also notes that the small rate gap versus the U.S. Federal Reserve may limit capital outflows. In Hungary, the Hungarian National Bank meets on Tuesday, February 24. A 25bp cut to 6.25% is expected. January inflation pushed the annual rate to its lowest level in almost eight years. The report also calls the forint a source of tightening. It says the currency’s performance has become less tied to rate gaps versus the euro, and adds that there is room for more cuts. The article says it was created using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.Trading Implications For Israel And Hungary
With the Bank of Israel deciding on rates today, the expected cut to 3.75% looks like a direct response to January’s low inflation reading of 1.8% and the shekel’s ongoing strength. USD/ILS has held near 3.25, a level it has not sustained since 2021. That strength tightens financial conditions more than the central bank likely wants. Markets have largely priced in this move. Because the outcome looks predictable, implied volatility in USD/ILS options seems high. That may create an opportunity to sell near-term volatility. The central bank’s move is more likely to steady the currency than to cause a fresh shock. The small rate differential versus the U.S. Federal Reserve also supports this view, since it limits the risk of large outflows that could weaken the shekel. Attention then shifts to the Hungarian National Bank tomorrow. Markets expect a 25bp cut after inflation fell to 2.9% in January, a near eight-year low. The forint has been a major part of the story, with EUR/HUF trading around 370. That is much stronger than the levels seen in early 2025. The main question is not whether the bank cuts, but how quickly it cuts after that. Unlike Israel, Hungary faces more uncertainty about the size and speed of the easing cycle. Because of that, buying volatility may make more sense. The MNB’s guidance could surprise markets and trigger a large move in the forint. The bank also has room to cut rates more aggressively if it chooses. As a result, traders could consider buying one-month EUR/HUF straddles or strangles ahead of the announcement. This trade should benefit if the MNB signals either a faster or a slower cutting cycle than the market expects, leading to a sharp move in the exchange rate. It is a direct way to trade uncertainty around the central bank’s next steps. In 2025, strong currencies in both countries were a defining theme. They outperformed expectations, helped push inflation down, and tightened financial conditions. Now the central banks are starting to unwind that currency-led tightening. The setup points to a controlled easing in Israel, and potentially a more volatile path in Hungary. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Silver holds early gains near $86.50 amid revived trade doubts after a US Supreme Court setback on tariffs
Silver (XAG/USD) rose 2.13% to about $86.50 in Monday’s European session. The move was supported by uncertainty over US trade policy, after a US Supreme Court ruling against President Donald Trump’s tariff approach.
The court said Trump went beyond his authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify tariffs. It blocked the so-called reciprocal tariffs and called them “illegal”.
Dollar Weakness Supports Silver
After the ruling, the US Dollar weakened. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.35% to about 97.45, which tends to support dollar-priced metals. Geopolitical risks also helped as US-Iran tensions continued over Tehran’s nuclear programme. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is considering a limited military strike on Iran to pressure it into a nuclear deal. Technically, silver held above the 20-day EMA at $82.78 and pushed toward the February 4 high of $92.21. Support was seen near $70.00. Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI stayed in the 40.00–60.00 range, pointing to a broader sideways trend. In 2025, silver surged to near $86 as trade policy uncertainty spiked and the US Dollar weakened. Today, conditions are very different. As of late February 2026, silver is trading at a more subdued $23.80. Many of last year’s unique geopolitical drivers have faded, so traders need a new approach. The sharp drop in the US Dollar Index seen in 2025 is no longer supporting precious metals. The DXY is now holding firm around 104.5, backed by a Federal Reserve that is keeping interest rates steady. That creates a headwind for a non-yielding asset like silver, unlike the conditions that drove prices higher last year.Geopolitics Industrial Demand And Strategy
In 2025, intense US-Iran tensions gave silver a strong safe-haven boost. In 2026, geopolitics is less of a direct driver. With diplomacy more active in current hotspots, much of the fear premium has faded. As a result, traders need other reasons to justify long positions. The main support for silver in 2026 is strong industrial demand, which mattered less last year. The Silver Institute recently forecast that photovoltaic demand will rise another 15% this year, building on record demand for solar panels and electric vehicle manufacturing in 2025. This helps create a fundamental floor under prices, even without safe-haven buying. For derivatives traders, this points to a range-bound market. Strong industrial demand is countered by a firm dollar and steady interest rates. Strategies such as selling covered calls against physical holdings or long futures may help generate income between support at $22.00 and resistance at $25.50. Buying straddles ahead of major China industrial production releases could also be a way to trade a potential breakout from that range. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Deutsche Bank says Brent retreats as US–Iran tensions ease, while tariff and geopolitical fears unwind weekend premiums and fuel volatility
Brent crude fell after a sharp two-day jump tied to US–Iran tensions. Deutsche Bank said part of the “weekend risk premium” was fading, even though reports still pointed to possible US strikes on Iran.
The report mentioned a recent build-up of US forces in the region. It also cited the New York Times, which said Donald Trump is considering an initial targeted strike on Iran in the coming days. A larger attack could follow if Iran does not meet US nuclear demands.
Market Reaction And Risk Premium
Brent was down -1.21% at $70.85 per barrel at the time of publication. Deutsche Bank also said this was Brent’s biggest two-day rise since October 2025. Over the week, Brent gained +5.92%, including a +0.14% rise on Friday. The article said it was created with help from an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Brent has eased back to around $70.85/bbl, but this looks like a small pullback as traders remove weekend risk premium—not a major shift in outlook. The risk of a US strike on Iran is still keeping the market on edge. Traders should expect fast, headline-driven moves in either direction. This tension is also showing up in options. Implied volatility has risen, and the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) is near 45—well above its recent average. That makes options more expensive. Protecting long physical positions with puts, or using call spreads to position for a spike, may make sense, but the upfront cost is high.Historical Parallels And Supply Shock Risk
October 2025’s sharp two-day jump was a reminder of how quickly oil can move on geopolitical news. A similar example was the 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, which briefly pushed prices up nearly 20%. These events highlight how exposed supply is to conflict in the region. If military action occurs now, the price reaction could be much larger than what we saw last year. The main risk remains the Strait of Hormuz. It is a critical chokepoint, and nearly 20% of global oil consumption—about 21 million barrels per day—still passes through it. Even a small disruption could quickly push prices higher, potentially taking Brent well above $85. Because of this, holding unhedged short positions in the coming weeks carries unusually high risk. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Switzerland’s producer and import prices fell 2.2% year on year, down from 1.8% previously
Switzerland’s producer and import prices fell 2.2% year on year in January, down from -1.8% in the previous period.
This reading shows prices are falling faster than before. It compares the index level with the same month one year earlier.
Implications For The Swiss Economy
The move to -2.2% is a clear deflationary signal for Switzerland. It supports the disinflation trend seen through 2025 and increases pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB). In the coming weeks, we should expect a more dovish tone from the SNB. This producer-price deflation comes after a weak growth period. In the second half of 2025, GDP growth struggled to rise above 0.4% on an annualized basis. Consumer inflation also remains low, with January 2026 at just 1.1%, well below the central bank’s target. Taken together, the case for easier policy is hard to ignore. The SNB has shown it is willing to move early, as it did with the surprise rate cut in spring 2024. Markets are now pricing in more than an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the March SNB meeting. This latest data is likely to reinforce that view. For forex traders, this strengthens the bearish case for the Swiss franc. A potential trade is to go long EUR/CHF options as policy divergence widens against a more cautious European Central Bank. EUR/CHF has been hovering near 0.9900, and it now has a plausible path back to 1.0150, a level last seen in early 2025. For equities, a weaker franc and lower borrowing costs tend to support the export-heavy Swiss Market Index (SMI). Large constituents such as Nestlé, Roche, and Novartis earn most of their revenue abroad, which boosts reported earnings in franc terms. One way to express this view is to buy SMI call options that expire after the March SNB meeting.Rates Markets And Trade Positioning
Rate markets also suggest a straightforward setup. To position for lower rates, consider buying futures linked to the Swiss Average Rate Overnight (SARON). Current pricing for mid-2026 contracts may not fully reflect the chance of a second cut later this year if deflation persists. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Swiss producer and import prices fell 0.2% month on month in January, missing the forecast 0.1% rise
Switzerland’s producer and import prices fell by 0.2% month on month in January. This was below the forecast of a 0.1% increase.
The report combines two measures: prices charged by Swiss producers and prices paid for imports. It offers a monthly snapshot of cost pressure in the supply chain.
Implications For Inflation And Policy
The unexpected drop in Swiss producer and import prices suggests inflation is cooling faster than expected. This increases pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to cut interest rates sooner. In our view, this also raises the risk of a weaker Swiss franc (CHF) in the weeks ahead. The SNB kept its policy rate at 1.50% through the final two quarters of 2025, as inflation pressures remained persistent. But this new data, together with a recent online search pointing to January 2026 CPI slowing to 1.2%, changes the outlook. The central bank now has a stronger case to loosen monetary policy. Based on this view, we think derivative traders should consider positioning for a weaker franc. One possible strategy is to buy call options on EUR/CHF, targeting a move toward 0.9800, a level last seen in late 2024. This approach limits downside risk while keeping upside exposure if the SNB shifts policy. Another option is to trade Swiss interest rate futures, especially SARON-based contracts. The market may not fully price in a rate cut at the coming March meeting. Buying these futures is a direct way to bet that short-term interest rates will fall more than investors currently expect.Equity Market Opportunities
This backdrop may also support Swiss equities, since lower borrowing costs can help businesses. We see a potential opportunity in buying call options on the Swiss Market Index (SMI). Past easing cycles, such as the one that began in 2015, show that rate-sensitive sectors like financials and consumer discretionary often perform well. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.With Nvidia earnings approaching, the Magnificent Seven and software shares face pessimism as they lag broader markets badly
Market sentiment toward the Magnificent 7 and software stocks has been weak. Much of this is tied to AI concerns. For the Mag 7, investors are focused on rising capital spending. For software firms, the worry is that AI could replace parts of their products.
Amazon plans to spend $200 billion on capital expenditures in 2026. That is up from $132 billion in 2025 and $83 billion in 2024. In 2025, Amazon’s operating cash flow was slightly higher than its $132 billion capex. In 2026, capex is expected to be higher than operating cash flow.
