The European Central Bank (ECB) has found a neutral interest rate, which is between 1.75% and 2.25%. The bank has decided not to commit to any specific changes in rates in the near future. There is a growing chance that inflation might be lower than expected, which could lead to a rate cut. To gather more data, the ECB will pause any rate changes during the summer and make decisions starting in September. A rate cut could still happen in 2025 if inflation stays below the medium-term target. Many in the market believe a final rate cut might take place in December. This information from the ECB shows that rates have reached a stable point, neither helping nor hindering economic activity. It indicates that current policy is steady, waiting for more signals from the economy. Now, the focus is on observing rather than acting. The ECB is not promising to either cut or raise interest rates next. Instead, they are taking a careful approach, looking at new data as it arrives. Recent inflation data has shown less pressure than expected, reducing the need for further tightening at this time. Indicators for the future, particularly core prices and service inflation, are easing a bit. This decreases the chances of another rate hike. The bigger question now is not if another increase is coming, but whether the expected rate cuts could happen sooner, and under what conditions. Lagarde’s comments highlight that rate decisions will largely depend on the data received in the coming months. During summer, rates will stay the same. This pause gives time to understand wage trends, energy impacts, and consumer demand better. If disinflation continues through the third quarter, December appears to be a likely time for an adjustment. As traders, we should focus less on set meeting dates and more on inflation data from two to three weeks before those meetings. There are delays in reactions, but they are becoming shorter. December pricing now anticipates at least one more 25 basis point cut. This is based on a softer CPI and a more cautious tone from the bank. Investors like Schnabel and Villeroy suggest there is enough flexibility to make changes if inflation continues to fall short. Looking towards 2025, the guidance does not hint at rates rising above current levels, and the trend seems to be downward. For us, this indicates a low chance of rates being tightened again in this cycle. Seasonal inflation patterns, especially the weaker period from July to September, may help maintain the current market expectation of lower rates by the end of the year. Since central bank members have not provided strong forward guidance, shorter-term market volatility will be important. The difference between two and ten-year rates may narrow, especially as long-term holders in EUR seek protection for the fourth quarter. In such an environment, paying close attention to what the ECB says about forecast risks is key. Core inflation and wage trends, not just headline inflation, will be crucial. There are upcoming renegotiations of earnings agreements in France and Germany, and the outcomes will influence the disinflation narrative. We cannot expect consistent viewpoints from all ECB members, as there are still differences within the council. However, the overall message from the June communication is clear: the risks are now balanced but leaning slightly towards a mild expectation of lower policy rates.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

China has issued rare earth export licenses, according to the commerce ministry. This news comes amid a noticeable silence from Chinese officials. Reports indicate that companies like JL Mag Rare Earth have received these licenses, enabling them to export rare earth products to the U.S. and Europe.

China’s Calibrated Approach

Instead of seeing clear policy announcements, we are noticing practical signs of change—licenses granted quietly, focusing on actions rather than words. The issuance of export approvals to firms such as JL Mag suggests a careful strategy. Rather than imposing broad restrictions or outright bans, approvals are selective. This speaks volumes more than any official statement. It’s not an open-door policy; it’s controlled—carefully managed and enforced. Beijing is taking a measured approach. While maintaining a subtle tone in official communications, they are operating decisively behind the scenes, creating a sense of uncertainty. For those of us tracking price changes and assessing short-term risks, this strategy can be intentionally confusing. Zhou, the head of JL Mag, understands how complex the license approval process can be. If his company has successfully navigated it, that’s more than just a simple permit. It shows that the company has passed scrutiny—both in business and politics. Anyone involved in the rare earth sector—whether buying, hedging, or participating in the supply chain—should pay close attention. This does not signal a full return to normal; it’s a sign of ongoing oversight from the top.

The Role of Traders in a Volatile Market

For traders, patience is more important than quick reactions. The news might prompt immediate activity, but understanding true price movement relies on actual data, not assumptions. If volatility increases, it may come from misinterpretations of government signals. However, this can be managed if we focus on real data rather than just headlines. Rare earths are not just at the beginning of the supply chain; they affect every related contract tied to growth industries. It’s crucial to distinguish between logistical increases and speculative jumps. As exports may resume slowly, firms caught without adequate coverage could rush to secure margins. Those who wait until official numbers confirm trends may miss opportunities. Chen, a senior analyst in the rare earth sector, pointed out a subtle yet important detail: the lack of sweeping announcements suggests an internal calculation that remains unstable. This situation isn’t stable; it’s a temporary pause. For traders, these brief periods of relative access can spark sudden but short-lived demand. Such shifts can quickly lead to reversals. Now is the time to narrow our focus. Monitor shipment data and follow customs records. Prepare for a pricing climate that rewards confirmed information over mere predictions. Cross-hedging is likely to occur in the next 10 to 14 days, especially if downstream industries adjust their procurement schedules. Those managing contracts with European companies in fields like defense, aerospace, or semiconductors must pay close attention to freight documents. The ripple effects won’t just be seen in China. They will be evident in shipping documents, import records, and customs data across various ports—if the materials actually move. Let’s remember that this industry often signals changes through administrative decisions. There is usually little warning, and the time from reports to market effects is often brief. This advantage favors traders acting on confirmed actions rather than mere interpretations. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

In the European session, the UK GDP data fell short of expectations, causing the GBP to drop. Today’s attention also turns to speeches from various ECB members. During the American session, the focus will shift to the US PPI and Jobless Claims data. The Core PPI Year-over-Year is expected to be 3.1%, with a Month-over-Month expectation of 0.3%. Recently, the US CPI was lower than anticipated, putting pressure on the dollar. If the PPI is soft, this trend may continue. US Jobless Claims are a key indicator of labor market conditions. Initial Claims have stayed between 200K and 260K since 2022, while Continuing Claims are gradually increasing. Usually, claims tend to rise in the summer. However, if they spike above 260K, it may signal concerns about labor market health. Initial Claims are projected at 240K, down from 247K last time, while Continuing Claims are expected to rise to 1,910K from 1,904K. In the afternoon, there will be a 30-year Treasury auction, particularly relevant if the PPI data is weak. Multiple ECB members will also be speaking, providing insights throughout the day. The disappointing UK GDP data has lowered the pound, indicating that domestic activity isn’t meeting earlier forecasts. This may seem like a short-term issue, but it highlights a more serious concern: weak domestic consumption and a sluggish service sector. This trend weakens the currency in the short term and raises doubts about future rate hikes by the central bank, especially if inflation data continues to trend downward. In the U.S., traders are gearing up for economic data before the Wall Street open. With the Producer Price Index in focus, there’s heightened sensitivity, especially after the week’s Consumer Price Index was disappointing. Producer pricing data usually follows a trend, and if it aligns with the soft CPI figures, it would reinforce a broader disinflation narrative. The year-on-year Core PPI at 3.1% sets a significant benchmark. If the result is lower, it could lead to more selling of dollar pairs, reflected by lower Treasury yields. The market is anxious about fast inflation decline, especially after recent reactions. Generally, risk appetite increases when price pressures ease. If today’s figures are favorable, this positive movement might carry into the weekend. However, the month-on-month PPI reading often sets the short-term market tone, making it crucial for traders. Jobless claims, a staple of the weekly economic calendar, are at a crucial point. With ongoing uncertainty regarding the strength of the US labor market, we’ll keep a close watch. If claims surpass 260K, optimism will be hard to find. Such an increase could lead to a rise in risk instruments, as lower wage pressures become more likely, and rate expectations decline. Even a slight uptick in Continuing Claims suggests longer job searches, indicating that hiring may be slowing. What’s particularly concerning is that Initial Claims are hovering near the upper end of the 200K–260K range. This once stable level has now reached a point that requires careful reconsideration, signaling early stress in the labor market. Today’s 30-year Treasury auction is especially noteworthy in light of weaker PPI. A poor inflation report could lower yields, affecting auction demand. Bidders might expect lower future rates, leading them to require less premium now. A smooth auction could suggest that the bond market anticipates more dovish policy from central banks. Multiple ECB officials will deliver prepared remarks throughout the day. Their comments could significantly impact the market, particularly regarding future policy timelines or scope. It’s essential to pay close attention to their tone and language. Shifts in emphasis on data dependence are critical during periods of lower inflation and rising growth concerns. In summary, today is data-sensitive, with likely linear reactions: softer data supports dovish expectations, while strong numbers swing momentum back. Rate traders should focus on detailed movements rather than broad sentiment, particularly around price data and yield responses. Timing is key, not just direction.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The US and China have made a temporary deal to ease some export controls. China will loosen restrictions on rare earths and magnets, while the US will do the same for certain tech items. However, restrictions on AI chips won’t change. As for tariffs, the US keeps a 55% tariff on Chinese goods. This includes 10% reciprocal tariffs, 20% on fentanyl, and 25% on existing tariffs. In response, China is likely to impose a 10% tariff on the US.

The Benefactor And The Agreement

The US sees itself as the benefactor in this agreement, but the actual benefits are unclear. China’s strong position in the rare earth market gives it an advantage if problems arise later. This situation resembles earlier events, like the soybean talks in 2019. China tends to prioritize its interests and resist pressure. Expectations are that China’s response will mirror this attitude, avoiding any appearance of giving in. This preliminary agreement aims to stop rising tariffs and offers short-term relief for both countries. However, calling it a significant “deal” might be a stretch. It still needs approval from China’s President Xi, which will determine its final status. For those considering market strategies after this update, it’s crucial to focus on what’s actually happening. Despite official claims, this is more of a pause—an effort to buy time amidst uncertainty. There’s no permanent solution, only a reordering of priorities to provide both sides with some leeway. Superficially, the easing of certain export controls suggests cooperation. However, retaining AI chip restrictions is a clear signal that neither country is ready to back down where it counts the most. This is important because it keeps valuable technology off the negotiation table, leaving markets vulnerable to sudden changes if tensions flare again.

Managing Market Responses

Returning to the tariffs, the 55% figure remains unchanged. The trade friction is still in place. This level of pressure on goods crossing borders won’t be ignored by companies assessing risk and pricing futures. When the other side implements a 10% tariff in retaliation, it’s not just about getting back at the US; it’s about upholding dignity without escalating matters. This approach is more about maintaining posture than having real impact, but markets often respond more to tone than to the facts. Looking at this back-and-forth, there’s a familiar pattern, reminiscent of late 2019 when export-driven goods like soybeans became part of a larger political game. The outcome back then involved tactical retreats rather than genuine solutions. One side believed they were steering the conversation, but the market adjusted its strategies once the actual power dynamics became clear. This current situation could develop similarly. The decisions still rest with high-level officials, and until there’s formal approval, what has happened so far is just a proposal—informally supported but not legally binding. This distinction is important. There’s still potential for reversal. From our perspective, these conditions may create temporary fluctuations in volatility spreads, allowing for selective investments. However, this calm isn’t built on solid ground. Spreads that widened due to speculation could narrow soon, while those in sectors related to extractive materials or advanced semiconductors may tighten more gradually if clarity doesn’t emerge on technology. Here’s a strategic point: don’t treat this as a resolution. Pricing models should reflect the risk of escalation. Instead of heavily investing, a more careful, line-by-line assessment is needed—especially for contracts connected to supply chain sensitivities. By keeping exposure flexible and watching for policy announcements—not just moods or talk—your positioning can remain strong. This approach makes more sense than relying on an uncertain claim of progress. Each time a situation like this arises, it becomes clear that what’s not said is often more revealing than official statements. The silence surrounding final approvals and ongoing high-grade chip controls shows where the real issues lie. It’s unwise to expect any long-term change until official channels confirm it—and that still hasn’t happened. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

EUR/USD expiries are at the 1.1500 and 1.1525 levels. The currency pair is close to April’s highs, aiming to break past the 1.1500 point. These expiries might influence movements temporarily, but there’s still uncertainty because of potential US policy changes impacting the dollar’s strength. AUD/USD has an expiry at the 0.6500 level, which is likely to keep the pair around this mark. Buyers are struggling to exceed this level, and this trend is expected to continue. For more guidance on how to use this data, further information is available online. The first part focuses on key expiry levels for two major currency pairs, which act as zones where price tends to group together. These levels can draw price movement, especially around New York option cut-offs, as larger players consolidate their positions. For the euro-dollar pair, the expiries at both 1.1500 and 1.1525 highlight the importance of this range. The price action, which is close to April’s multi-month highs, shows a bullish trend but with caution. Large expiries within this range create a tug-of-war, keeping the price within a narrow area as big contracts settle. Meanwhile, shifts in US monetary expectations add volatility, making it challenging to move above 1.1500. For the Australian dollar, the situation is similar but more stable. The expiry near 0.6500 acts as a barrier, slowing any upward movement. Buyers don’t have the momentum to maintain strength above this level. Each attempt to rise is met with resistance, indicating broader caution. This isn’t just about expiry pull; market sentiment is heavy, likely due to larger economic uncertainties or local factors affecting risk appetite. What can we do with this information? We should closely monitor price movements during the European and early US trading sessions, especially within 50 pips of the expiry levels mentioned. If volatility increases and prices start to respect these zones, it suggests that options are influencing the market more than standard trading flows. This changes how we must think about these levels by focusing on timing and rollover costs rather than traditional support and resistance. In our experience, the hours leading up to the New York option cut reveal the real impact of listed expiries. If prices stay close to a level or move around it without clear volume confirmation, the expiry is effectively holding direction. Any breakout that happens well after the expiry should be considered independent of earlier movements and not assumed to be supported by expiry book flows. Always align your bias with confirmation, not expectation.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Geopolitical tensions dominated the news in Asia, particularly concerns about a possible Israeli strike on Iran. The U.S. advised its citizens to leave the region, highlighting these worries, even as U.S.-Iran talks are set for Sunday. Oil prices increased but couldn’t hold on to those gains due to the ongoing uncertainty. In Japan, a Ministry of Finance survey revealed a drop in business sentiment for the first time in over a year. The Business Sentiment Index for large firms fell to -1.9 in Q2, while non-manufacturers dipped to -0.5, marking their first negative reading since late 2022.

Australian Inflation And Currency Fluctuations

In Australia, consumer inflation expectations jumped sharply to 5.0% in June, up from 4.1% in May, the highest level since July 2023. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened, allowing the euro, yen, Swiss franc, and British pound to gain ground, while the Canadian dollar remained stable. The Australian and New Zealand dollars struggled, and gold prices hit $3,375, boosted by safe-haven investing. As geopolitical tensions rise, especially in the Middle East, we can see market jitters affecting global trading. Although no direct actions have been taken, the U.S. warning for its citizens shows how serious the perceived threat is. Market participants reacted quickly, driving temporary gains in oil and gold. Eventually, energy prices stabilized, indicating that while the threat is real, traders are not yet bracing for long-term supply issues. The rise in gold prices highlights how quickly investors move toward safer assets during uncertain times. Surpassing the $3,300 mark shows strong backing for this trend. The strength of precious metals and safe-haven currencies indicates a phase of reduced risk appetite. For those involved with commodity-related assets or currencies sensitive to risk, a cautious approach is advisable. This unease does not seem to be short-lived.

Business Sentiment And Interest Rate Movements

Japan’s drop in business sentiment is important not only because of the negative figures but also because it occurs amidst stable economic data. The Ministry of Finance Index’s decline suggests growing fears about export demand and increasing costs, especially with a weaker yen making imports pricier. It’s crucial to separate overall growth from corporate confidence, as this gap often foreshadows reduced spending or changes in the labor market. Equities and interest rate futures reflect this divergence. Likewise, rising inflation expectations in Australia indicate potential adjustments in short-term rates. If households sense rising prices, it could prompt the central bank to act sooner than anticipated. Fixed income experts might need to realign yield curves to reflect a higher and longer-lasting inflation outlook. This shift could delay any easing of policies and challenge high-risk currencies in the area. In the currency markets, investors are leaning toward safer options. The U.S. dollar has fallen against most G10 currencies, signaling a lack of confidence in its protective role. Gains in the Swiss franc and yen are particularly noteworthy, as these currencies often gain traction during stressful times, not just due to interest rates. Weaker commodity-linked currencies show that the quest for yield is receding. While North American markets did not set the tone, they supported wider trends. The Canadian dollar’s steady performance serves as a reference point for evaluating regional shifts. It seems capital is flowing toward places where stability is seen as more valuable than yield. In the coming sessions, we can expect further reallocations, especially in short-term interest rate products and cross-currency pairs. We are spotting initial movements in volatility futures, signaling expectations of widening spreads. With current implied volatility still below historical norms in some areas, there’s room for change. Patience is reasonable, but it carries risks—strategies must remain adaptable. Be prepared for directional movements that may not align with recent trends, particularly as fund flows seem reactive. What we’re witnessing reflects not only responses to macroeconomic data but also adjustments driven by perceived political and economic risks. This requires careful monitoring of skew pricing and relative costs across various maturities. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

TD Securities has taken a strategic long position in gold due to rising tensions in the Middle East. In times of potential instability, gold is seen as a safe haven with low risk. The firm has a one-month price target for gold set at $3,650 per ounce. This reflects their strategy to minimize risks in an uncertain geopolitical environment. The recent decision highlights a tactical approach focused on immediate events rather than a long-term evaluation of gold’s value. The one-month timeframe shows confidence in gold’s ability to provide safety as regional tensions rise. This isn’t a long-term view but a brief opportunity to seize gains tied to current events. This clearly indicates that people are becoming more cautious. It’s not because of a general economic downturn but due to sudden shocks that could quickly affect various investments. In these situations, gold often responds first and reliably. Choosing to invest now suggests a short window for safe investments that may not last long. Markets have started to adjust to scenarios that once seemed unlikely. You can see this in not just metals but also rising volatility indexes and the yields that don’t align with inflation-adjusted expectations. This outside pressure reduces the margin for error in investment decisions. From our viewpoint, the best approach is to reevaluate exposure to risks that might be too vulnerable to geopolitical changes. We’ve adjusted our short-term gamma to a neutral position and are now focusing on strategies that provide downside protection without tying up too much capital. Volatility sellers are more active than expected, yet the pricing doesn’t fully account for the risks associated with safe-haven demand. As tensions remained high last week, we noticed that the gold forward curve has flattened a bit. This is significant. Traders seem to be focused on a short time frame rather than the long-term outlook. Today’s pricing reflects the belief that next month will be different from the last. It’s also important to note that stop-loss levels are likely to tighten. This will make leveraged positions react more quickly to headlines. In a market influenced by sentiment, liquidity gaps can widen when large hedging activities occur. We have already seen slippage in the options markets this week, suggesting a staggered execution strategy for new entries or exits is necessary. Once the situation in the region clarifies—whether it improves or worsens—gold’s appeal might fade faster than expected. History shows that safe havens lose value quickly once headlines stabilize. Timing is crucial. For this reason, we’ve decided to manage duration risk outside of precious metals altogether. Ultimately, the takeaway is not that gold is undervalued. Instead, it’s insulated for now. During a week filled with uncertainty, this insulation continues to attract investors who prefer quick returns and are sensitive to rapid changes in news.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Traders interested in the Australian Dollar should pay attention to an important event today involving the Reserve Bank of Australia. At 5:20 PM Sydney time, David Jacobs, the Head of the Domestic Markets Department, will give a speech.

Australia Bond Market Volatility

Jacobs’ speech will cover “Australia’s Bond Market in a Volatile World.” This talk is part of the Australian Government Fixed Income Forum happening in Tokyo. It is also set to begin at 07:20 GMT and 03:20 US Eastern Time. Jacobs discussing global bond market volatility at an overseas forum is significant. It shows that monetary policymakers are alert to risk factors that can impact domestic funding and, in turn, affect currency values. Bond market behavior, especially during times of stress, can influence derivative pricing, hedging behavior, and overall market sentiment. Jacobs probably won’t provide direct advice on interest rate changes. His role suggests he will take a more operational and descriptive approach, possibly looking at funding patterns, liquidity issues, and market structure. While we may not get direct policy hints, we can gain operational insights into how the Reserve Bank views recent disruptions and the tools it might consider using in response.

Impact On Trading Strategies

In the short term, this speech may impact funding spreads and the yield curve. Traders will likely pay attention to any comments regarding stress indicators, such as bid-ask spreads in short-term government debt or shifts in repo markets. These elements are important because changes can influence rates futures, options expiry, and strategies relying on mean-reversion. Those monitoring implied volatility in AUD pairs already see that recent global rate concerns have widened daily ranges. If Jacobs discusses market function—possibly addressing internal RBA liquidity tools or operations—this could further shape our views on swap spreads and carry costs. While Jacobs is unlikely to change expectations for policy direction, his remarks on the stability of domestic bond markets could lead us to reassess premium estimations in OIS markets. It’s also wise to keep an eye on commentary from Japanese institutional investors since the speech is taking place in Tokyo, putting Australian fixed income on their radar. Traders should consider how updates on issuance profiles or changes to sovereign debt management might alter short-term expectations for AUD demand. Those holding long gamma or short basis risk should think about adjusting their positions around the timing of his remarks. A sharp market move isn’t guaranteed, but market makers often adjust quotes before unpredictable RBA events, especially those discussing liquidity. Monitoring correlations between 10-year ACGBs and currency pairs has been helpful in recent weeks. If this correlation tightens after the speech, it could justify reallocating delta exposure in cross-currency swaps or adjusting duration hedges in regional portfolios. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to provide the most reliable service to our clients, there will be maintenance this weekend.

Please note that the following aspects might be affected during the maintenance:

1. During the maintenance hours, the Client Portal and VT Markets App will be unavailable, including managing trades, Deposit/Withdrawal and all the other functions will be limited.

2. The price quote and trading management will be temporarily disabled during the maintenance. You will not be able to open new positions, close open positions, or make any adjustments to the trades.

3. There might be a gap between the original price and the price after maintenance. The gaps between Pending Orders, Stop Loss, and Take Profit will be filled at the market price once the maintenance is completed. It is suggested that you manage the account properly.

The above data is for reference only. Please refer to the MT4 / MT5 / VT App for the specific maintenance completion and marketing opening time.

Thank you for your patience and understanding about this important initiative.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected]

Australian consumer inflation expectations rose to 5% in June 2025, up from 4.1% in May, according to the Melbourne Institute Survey. This rise indicates that consumers are more worried about future price increases. During this time, the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been weaker against other major currencies like the Euro (EUR), British Pound (GBP), Japanese Yen (JPY), and Swiss Franc (CHF), which have all gained against the USD. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has remained stable, while both the AUD and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) show signs of weakness. Reports suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) plans to cut its cash rate multiple times, starting in August 2025. Additional cuts are expected in November 2025 and in February and May 2026. These developments tell a clear story. The significant rise in inflation expectations from 4.1% to 5.0% reflects how households believe prices will change in the coming year. This shift can influence actual pricing and wage demands. We closely monitor such sentiment surveys because if people expect higher prices, they behave differently, making it harder for central banks to control inflation. Increasing inflation expectations put pressure on the Reserve Bank. While the economy might benefit from lower borrowing costs as growth slows and global demand drops, rising inflation expectations complicate this. Lowering rates too quickly when people expect prices to rise could disrupt consumer stability goals. The planned timeline of rate cuts, starting in August and extending into 2026, adds to this challenge. The Australian dollar’s current situation is quite clear. It is struggling while other major currencies gain strength. This broad weakness suggests that rate expectations for Australia are diverging from those of other countries. The gains in the euro, pound, and yen imply their economies might be on a more solid path, potentially maintaining higher rates for longer. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar remains stable, indicating neutral conditions in Canada. These trends do not occur in isolation. If inflation persists while rate cuts are anticipated, this could further weaken the currency. This could lead to higher import costs, which may reinforce inflation and circle back to impact central bank decisions. Understanding this relationship is key. Inflation expectations, central bank credibility, guidance, and market prices all influence each other. Stevens’ previous comments about planned cuts later this year and into next year suggest a cautious approach to easing. However, each new piece of inflation data adds complexity to our decisions. From a trading perspective, especially for those managing rate differences or currency volatility, clarity at short-term rates remains uncertain. Changes in expectations may lead to adjustments in short-term rates, especially if upcoming data does not ease inflation concerns. In the Forex (FX) markets, we see this anticipation reflected. The Aussie has dropped, even on days without significant news, and the soft performance of the Kiwi indicates the region may be trading on expectations of looser policy. The central bank’s credibility and clarity in communication will be crucial in guiding short-term market positioning. In summary, near-term moves should be driven by inflation data and any shifts in official communications. Investors looking at interest rate differences or currency strengths should closely monitor changes. A single data release or change in statements could quickly realign expectations.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now