US EIA reports crude oil inventories fell by 9.014 million, versus forecasts for a 2.1 million rise
US EIA data showed a crude oil stocks change of -9.014M for the week of 13 February. The market expectation was 2.1M.
Crude inventories fell by more than 9 million barrels last week. The market had expected a 2 million barrel build. This is a strongly bullish signal for crude oil. It suggests the market is much tighter than expected.
The Dow fell 300 points (0.59%) amid Iran tensions, hawkish Fed messaging, and weak Walmart guidance
The DJIA fell nearly 300 points (0.59%) to 49,351 on Thursday. The S&P 500 dropped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2%. The DJIA is still above its 50-day EMA near 48,944, but it remains below the early-month highs above 50,500.
FOMC minutes from the January 27–28 meeting showed that “almost all” participants supported keeping rates at 3.50%–3.75%. Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller dissented and preferred a 25-basis-point cut. Initial Jobless Claims were 206K for the week ending 14 February, down 23K from the prior week and below the 225K consensus. Continuing claims rose to 1.869 million.
Key Data And Fed Path
CME FedWatch puts the odds of no rate change on 18 March at about 94%. The first cut that is fully priced in is not expected until mid-2026. On Friday, the BEA will release Q4 2025 GDP and December PCE at the same time. GDP is expected at 2.8%, down from 4.4% in Q3. Core PCE is seen near 3.05%. Markets will also watch the flash February PMI, after January manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4. Walmart reported adjusted EPS of $0.74 on $190.7 billion in revenue. US comparable sales rose 4.6% excluding fuel, and global e-commerce grew 24%. However, Walmart guided FY EPS to $2.75–$2.85 versus $2.96 expected and announced a $30 billion buyback. Blue Owl fell more than 8% after it limited OBDC II redemptions and sold $1.4 billion in loans at 99.7% of par. Blackstone fell about 6%, and Apollo dropped about 5%. WTI rose about 2% to above $66, and Brent reached $71.49. The Strait of Hormuz is tied to roughly 20% of global oil consumption. Spot gold climbed to about $5,012 after moving back above $5,000. Deere jumped more than 7% on net sales of $9.61 billion (+13% year-on-year), EPS of $2.42, and a higher net income outlook of $4.5–$5.0 billion (up from $4.0–$4.75 billion). With markets pulling back from recent highs, focus is now on Friday’s key releases: Q4 2025 GDP and the December PCE inflation report. A hotter inflation reading could support the hawkish tone in the January Fed minutes and could spark sharp volatility. We may want to buy downside protection, such as VIX call options or puts on major indices, to hedge against a fast sell-off.Rates Markets And Positioning
The Fed’s “higher for longer” message, supported by the drop in jobless claims, has largely taken a March rate cut off the table. Futures now suggest the first cut may not come until mid-year, a big change from expectations a few months ago. This keeps us cautious on rate-sensitive growth stocks and may create opportunities to short Treasury futures if yields stay elevated. Rising tensions with Iran are adding a risk premium to energy markets and have pushed crude to its highest level in months. This increases inflation risk and also boosts demand for safe havens like gold, which has moved back above $5,000. We see this as a reason to keep or add to long oil positions and energy sector ETFs, while using gold as a hedge. Sector performance is also splitting in a way that creates clearer trade setups. Ongoing weakness in software names like Salesforce, tied to AI disruption concerns, may favor bearish put spreads. In contrast, Deere’s strong results and higher forecast suggest some cyclicals may be stabilizing, making call options on leading industrial stocks more attractive. The steep declines in alternative asset managers like Blue Owl and Blackstone highlight liquidity risk in private credit. Limits on redemptions have unsettled investors and recall the 2023 regional bank stress, when liquidity fears spread quickly. For now, we are staying away from this sector and watching closely for any broader spillover into the financial system. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Commerzbank says divisions in Poland’s coalition keep political risk elevated, and the zloty continues to lag despite reassurances
Commerzbank analyst Tatha Ghose says the split inside Poland’s ruling coalition keeps domestic political risk high. This ongoing risk continues to weigh on the Polish zloty.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said the government is stable and pointed to a “stable zloty.” Even so, the zloty has lagged behind peer currencies and is seen as an underperformer in its region.
Reports say the political picture is getting more complicated, with new infighting in the coalition. Political risk is likely to stay in focus until Poland’s general election in November 2027.
The article was produced with the help of an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. It was published by the FXStreet Insights Team.
We remember the warnings from 2025 about how fragile Poland’s ruling coalition was, and how that could hurt the zloty. Those same risks are showing up again. Recent public disputes over judicial reforms have brought back market uncertainty. This supports the view that the core political tension was never solved and is likely to continue.
The zloty’s weakness is clear in the data. EUR/PLN has recently drifted up to 4.42, and the currency has underperformed regional peers over the last quarter. This drag is happening even though January inflation stayed high at 4.1%, which limits the National Bank of Poland’s ability to act. Markets appear to be pricing in both political and economic pressure.
For derivatives traders, this suggests we should expect higher volatility in the coming weeks. Three-month implied volatility on EUR/PLN options has already risen from under 7% to 8.5% as tensions returned. Options strategies that benefit from bigger price moves, such as long straddles, may offer value in this environment.
Looking ahead, the next budget talks will be a key test of coalition unity. With internal disputes still active, it may be wise to hedge long-PLN exposure using forward contracts. If the government fails to pass major fiscal measures, the zloty could weaken sharply.
WTI hits a six-month high as rising US-Iran tensions fuel fears of Middle East supply disruptions
WTI rose on Thursday after gaining 4.9% the day before, reaching about $66.38 a barrel. That was its highest level since August 2025.
Prices climbed on reports of rising US-Iran tensions and the risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of global oil shipments.
Geopolitical Risk Premium Builds
US President Donald Trump said talks with Iran were still ongoing and suggested a possible outcome in about 10 days. Nuclear negotiations earlier in the week did not produce a breakthrough. The Times reported that the UK is blocking the US from using Royal Air Force bases for possible strikes on Iran. This added more uncertainty to the outlook. On the daily chart, WTI moved back above key moving averages, including the 200-day simple moving average near $62.20. The price action still shows higher highs and higher lows. The RSI was near 63, above 50. The ADX was around 28, and the Average True Range was 2.05. Resistance is in the $66.00–$67.00 area, with $70.00 as the next level if price breaks higher. If WTI drops below the 200-day SMA, the 100-day SMA near $59.83 may provide support. The next support level after that is around $56.00.Options Strategies For A Binary Window
With WTI near a six-month high around $66, the market appears to be pricing in a meaningful geopolitical risk premium linked to the US-Iran situation. This tension is the main driver right now, so it makes sense to focus on strategies that can handle a binary outcome over the next ten days. Recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) data supports the bullish tone: crude inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels last week, a larger draw than expected. That tightens supply even before any potential disruption. The “10 days” timeline is pushing implied volatility higher. That makes options more expensive, but it also creates opportunities. Any position should be built for a sharp move, because a diplomatic breakthrough could erase recent gains just as quickly as an escalation could push prices higher. Strategies like long straddles or strangles can benefit from a big move in either direction, especially if they expire just after this ten-day window. For a bullish view, call options with strikes at or above $70 target the next major psychological level. Because premiums are elevated, bull call spreads may be a cheaper way to express this view, while limiting both cost and maximum profit. This approach also aligns with the technical setup, where a break above the $66–$67 resistance zone could open the way higher. At the same time, it is important to plan for a fast de-escalation that would remove the risk premium. As a hedge, put options with strikes below the key 200-day moving average support near $62 can offer downside protection. If a deal is announced, the downside move could be quick, so puts can act as insurance for any long exposure. This pattern has appeared before. In early 2020, oil prices spiked on military headlines and then later pulled back. That history shows geopolitical rallies can fade quickly, which strengthens the case for tight risk management. Sensitivity is even higher now because the Strait of Hormuz—central to this tension—handles about 21 million barrels per day, or roughly one-fifth of global consumption based on recent shipping figures. All of this is happening while supply is already tight, with OPEC+ holding production quotas through the end of the quarter. In that environment, even a small disruption could have an outsized impact on prices. Positions over the coming weeks should stay flexible: the technical trend is up, but the market can swing sharply on a single headline. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Kashkari calls crypto “utterly useless” and expects resilient jobs and AI-led productivity gains soon
Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said the US labour market remains resilient. He said it has cooled, but is still “decent to pretty good”. However, business reports on hiring suggest companies are becoming more cautious.
Kashkari said Kevin Hassett’s comments about Fed staff research were “just another step” to undermine the Fed’s independence. He said the Fed will keep making decisions based on data and analysis, and will ignore other “distractions”.
Ai And Productivity Outlook
He said most businesses are already seeing benefits from AI. He said AI could raise productivity over the next five to ten years. He said the Fed is careful about using AI internally. He said strong guardrails are in place so AI systems cannot access confidential data. Kashkari said crypto is “utterly useless”. He said it is unclear what stablecoins can do that Venmo and similar services do not already offer. A resilient labour market suggests fewer interest rate cuts in 2026 than markets currently expect. The January jobs report supports this view, with nonfarm payrolls rising by a solid 215,000. In this setting, derivatives that bet on a summer rate cut, such as some Fed Funds futures contracts, look increasingly risky.Market Implications And Positioning
In 2025, markets repeatedly priced in a dovish Fed pivot, only to be disappointed when wage growth stayed strong. With average hourly earnings up 0.4% last month, this pattern may be continuing. Because of this, options strategies tied to Treasury bond ETFs that benefit from yields staying high could make sense over the next few weeks. At the same time, optimism about AI-driven productivity is boosting tech sentiment today. After a strong Q4 2025 earnings season, the Nasdaq 100 is already up 8% year-to-date, and implied volatility in AI-related stocks is still high. This points to continued large price swings, which could make strategies like collars or straddles on leading tech names attractive. Kashkari’s sharp criticism of crypto adds to the regulatory pressure that built in late 2025 and has cooled investor interest. Bitcoin is down nearly 15% from its recent highs and is struggling to hold the $85,000 support level. Comments like these from policymakers could lead to another drop. Buying put options on publicly traded crypto miners or exchanges could be one way to benefit if the weakness continues. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The US EIA reported that natural gas storage fell by 144B, exceeding expectations for a 146B drop
US Energy Information Administration data showed a natural gas storage change of -144B for the week of 13 February.
The forecast was -146B, so the reported draw was 2B smaller than expected.
Storage Draw: Interpreting Market Impact
The 144 billion cubic feet natural gas storage withdrawal was slightly smaller than the 146 billion expected. This suggests demand was weaker than the market anticipated. That is bearish because it leaves more gas in storage than traders had priced in, which can push prices lower in the near term. In the bigger picture (early 2025), this report also supported an already oversupplied market. Total inventories were still well above 2,000 Bcf, more than 15% above the five-year average for mid-February. With that kind of buffer, the market can absorb small, weather-driven demand spikes. That winter’s core story was record production—often above 100 Bcf per day—alongside generally mild weather. Even with strong LNG export demand, supply was still more than enough. This storage result reinforced the idea of a weak price environment. For derivatives traders, this supported a bearish bias. One approach was buying puts on April and May contracts to benefit from further downside as winter heating demand faded. Another approach was selling out-of-the-money call spreads to profit if prices stayed flat or drifted lower. Futures traders could treat rallies as chances to start or add to shorts. Technical resistance remained a factor, and a move below the key $2.50/MMBtu level looked more likely during that period. The March–April spread was also worth monitoring for signs of added weakness.Key Risk Scenario: Weather Shock
The main risk to this view was a late-season arctic blast that sharply raises heating demand. Even though early-2025 weather models leaned mild, a sudden shift could trigger a fast short-covering rally. Any bearish position should be managed with clear risk limits. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.In February, eurozone consumer confidence fell to -12.2, below the -11.8 forecast, disappointing economists
Eurozone consumer confidence came in at -12.2 in February. This was below expectations of -11.8.
The reading shows sentiment is weaker than forecast. The release provided no further details.
Consumer Confidence Drops Below Forecast
The surprise fall in consumer confidence suggests the outlook is less clear than expected. This challenges the optimism seen late in 2025, when the Euro Stoxx 50 made strong gains. That momentum now appears to be fading in the first quarter of this year. We should consider buying put options on major European indices such as the Euro Stoxx 50. This could profit from a market drop while keeping risk defined. Retail sales volumes already fell by an unexpected 0.3% in the final month of 2025, which supports the link between weak sentiment and softer spending. This weak data also increases pressure on the European Central Bank to consider more rate cuts. However, with headline inflation still at 2.4% last month, the ECB has limited room to move. Its cautious 25-basis-point cut in September 2025 suggests it is unlikely to act quickly. A weaker growth outlook, along with the chance of deeper rate cuts, could push the euro lower.Euro Weakness And Hedging Strategy
As a result, we should consider buying puts on the EUR/USD pair. This trade would benefit if the euro continues to fall against the dollar in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Rabobank’s Michael Every says America’s maritime action plan shifts trade from rules-based free trade to bloc-based neomercantilism
Rabobank’s Michael Every says the US Maritime Action Plan (MAP) shows the US is moving away from rules-based free trade. Instead, it is shifting toward bloc-led, neomercantilist policy. The MAP ties into the Section 301 inquiry into China’s maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors. It calls Beijing’s practices “unreasonable and burdensome”.
The article points to subsidies, state ownership, forced technology transfer, and predatory pricing as reasons China leads in shipbuilding. It says China now holds more than half of the global market.
Maritime Policy And Market Impact
The MAP could shift more US maritime trade onto US-flagged ships, and later onto US-built ships. It says that in 2025, markets feared an immediate shortage of suitable vessels, which pushed freight rates higher. The piece says US port fees, along with tariffs and “upstream” alliances for critical minerals, could speed up supply-chain fragmentation. It describes two emerging blocs: a US-led group with Korea and Japan (and possibly Europe) versus a China–Russia-led bloc. It adds that US port fees on China were paused during a recent US–China trade détente. If the fees return, it says China could respond with counter-fees, WTO challenges, or other economic and geopolitical actions. This move toward neomercantilist policy suggests higher market volatility in the weeks ahead. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has been near 19, could move above 22 as traders price in the risk of new tariffs and supply-chain disruptions. Consider buying VIX call options, or using straddles on major indices, to benefit from larger price swings.Trading Approaches And Hedging
The focus on the US maritime sector points to higher shipping costs. Freight rates surged in 2025 when these ideas were first discussed. The Drewry World Container Index has already risen 4% this month to above $3,400 per 40ft container. Traders can look at call options on US-flagged shipping firms and futures linked to freight indexes, since new port fees would likely lift prices quickly. These supply-chain pressures are inflationary and could make the Federal Reserve’s job harder. The January CPI report shows core inflation is still sticky at a 3.7% annual rate. Markets are now pricing fewer rate cuts for 2026. Expect ongoing pressure on rate-sensitive assets, and consider positions in Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures that reflect “higher for longer” rates. The rise of separate US-focused and China-focused blocs also supports paired trades. US domestic manufacturers and key allies in Korea and Japan may benefit, making derivatives on sector ETFs in those markets more attractive. On the other side, consider put options on firms that depend heavily on Chinese manufacturing and logistics. The risk of Chinese retaliation, such as bringing back counter-fees, adds more uncertainty, especially for currencies. Any escalation could strengthen the US dollar as a safe haven and weaken the Chinese yuan. Watch USD/CNH closely, as it may be a key signal of trade tensions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.US pending home sales fell 0.4% year on year in January, improving from a 3% decline
US pending home sales fell 0.4% year on year in January. The previous reading showed a 3% annual fall.
This new figure is a smaller decline. It suggests contract signings are holding up better than in the prior period.
Pending Home Sales Surprise
January pending home sales were much stronger than expected. They fell just 0.4% year over year, not the 3% drop forecast. This points to a housing market that may be stabilizing sooner than models suggested. It also lowers near-term fears of a sharp economic slowdown. This strength in housing, along with the early-February jobs report showing a solid 225,000 increase in payrolls, makes the path for Federal Reserve policy less clear. We may need to reset expectations, since the chance of an interest rate cut before summer has likely fallen. Trades that rely on lower short-term rates, such as long positions in SOFR futures, now look riskier. One possible response is to watch call options on homebuilder ETFs and on individual names like D.R. Horton, which lagged for much of 2025 because mortgage rates stayed high. If housing is stabilizing, that is a meaningful shift for the group. It could also support home improvement retailers and regional banks with large mortgage exposure. More broadly, this kind of positive data can support S&P 500 index futures. If one major source of uncertainty looks less threatening, implied volatility may keep drifting lower. Traders may look at selling VIX futures or using option spreads that can benefit from lower market stress.Inflation Fed Tradeoffs
Even so, the latest CPI report shows inflation remains sticky at 3.1%, well above the Fed’s target. A firmer housing market can add to inflation pressure, which makes the Fed’s job harder. This push and pull—better growth versus stubborn inflation—will likely keep markets sensitive in the weeks ahead. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.US pending home sales fell 0.8% month on month in January, missing forecasts of a 1.3% rise
US pending home sales fell 0.8% month over month in January. That was weaker than the expected 1.3% rise.
The result was 2.1 percentage points below expectations. Pending home sales track contract signings and often signal near-term changes in completed sales.
