Elliott’s activist stake lifts Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings 12%, challenging year-long resistance
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) jumped 12.15% in one session. Trading volume topped 60 million shares, about three times its normal daily average. The move came after reports that Elliott Management has built a stake of more than 10%.
NCLH traded near $29.50 in early 2025, then slid to a 52-week low of $14.21. The stock later bounced to about $27 in August and to around $25 in late 2025, but both rallies stalled.
Those earlier highs create a falling (descending) trendline near $25.00. NCLH closed at $24.10, roughly $0.90 below that level.
Royal Caribbean recently reported results that included seven of the strongest booking weeks in its history. NCLH reported Q3 2025 revenue of $2.9 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.20. It also has a 2026 adjusted EPS target of $2.45.
The next key date is 2 March, when NCLH reports Q4 and full-year 2025 results. This will be the first report under CEO John Chidsey.
NCLH has surged on news of Elliott Management’s stake, and the stock is now at an important technical level. The rally has pushed shares up to a falling trendline near $25, a level that has stopped advances for more than a year. The main question is whether this activist-driven momentum can finally break through.
If you’re looking for a bullish breakout, buying call options is the most direct choice. With earnings coming on March 2, options expiring later in March or in April may make more sense. They give the trade time to develop. A strong close above $25 could make the $26 or $27 strike calls more attractive, since it would suggest a change in trend.
The bullish case also has help from the broader industry. Cruise bookings for 2026 are reportedly running about 12% above the record pace of 2025. That lines up with Royal Caribbean’s strong update. The market may be reacting to strength across the sector, not just at one company.
If you think resistance will hold, a bearish approach may fit better. Implied volatility is elevated above 55% heading into earnings. In that setup, selling a bear call spread (for example, the March $26/$28 spread) could work well. It can profit if NCLH fails to clear resistance, and it can also benefit from the typical drop in volatility after earnings.
Options prices are implying a move of about +/- 9% after the March 2 earnings release. That suggests the market expects a big swing. The uncertainty comes from several factors at once: a new CEO, an activist investor, and a key technical decision point. If the stock fails to break above $25, it could quickly drop back toward the $21 support area seen earlier this year.
If you don’t want to pick a direction, high implied volatility can still be useful. An iron condor is one way to trade that view. It aims to profit if the stock stays within a set range after earnings, and it can benefit from the post-earnings “volatility crush,” as long as the move is not larger than the +/- 9% the market is currently pricing in.
Since late last month’s earnings, Tesla’s head-and-shoulders pattern triggered an 11.5% drop, followed by a 12.7% rebound
Tesla shares swung sharply after earnings at the end of last month. The stock dropped more than 11.5% after the release, then bounced back more than 12.7%.
On the daily chart, price action is forming a head and shoulders pattern. This pattern often signals a shift in momentum after a volatile move.
Head And Shoulders Pattern Overview
If the pattern completes and breaks down, a measured move suggests a target near $276. This estimate comes from the pattern’s height and is used as a reference level. Recent trading shows the stock has been repricing since earnings. We saw heavy selling followed by strong buying. This back-and-forth is common when chart patterns like this develop. The discussion also highlights risk management when trading technical setups. Chart patterns are tools, but they work best with proper position sizing and clear risk limits. Looking back at the volatility after earnings in January 2025, a classic head and shoulders pattern formed on the daily chart. That setup signaled a momentum shift and was followed by a meaningful decline in the months that followed. We watch these patterns because they reflect the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers during key periods.Risk Management And Trade Planning
The spring 2025 drop toward the $276 area is a useful reminder of how the stock can trade under pressure. Now, with Q4 2025 deliveries missing analyst estimates at 610,000 vehicles and fresh concerns about European demand, similar weakness is showing up again on the chart. The market appears to be resetting expectations, much like it did a year ago. With that in mind, we are considering protective strategies for the weeks ahead. One approach is buying put options that expire in March or April 2026. This can benefit from a move lower while keeping maximum loss limited to the premium paid. It also avoids the open-ended risk that comes with shorting the stock. For traders who want income or who are less bearish, selling out-of-the-money call credit spreads is another option. This strategy can work if the stock moves sideways or lower by collecting premium, based on the view that a strong upside breakout is less likely. It offers a defined risk and reward profile. Past price swings show that two-way volatility is always a factor with this stock. No matter the strategy, discipline and risk control should come first. Any position should be sized appropriately, with the potential loss clearly defined before entering the trade. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Following a firmer USD after the FOMC minutes, attention shifts to reports of a possible early ECB departure for Lagarde
Christine Lagarde may leave her role as ECB President before her term ends in October 2027, the Financial Times reported. An ECB spokesperson said on Wednesday that Lagarde has not decided whether she will stay for her full term.
The Federal Reserve’s January FOMC minutes said more rate cuts could be appropriate if inflation falls as expected. Some officials also wanted language that kept the option of rate hikes on the table if inflation stays above target. The 2% inflation goal remains the same, but the timing is uncertain.
Market Levels After The Minutes
After the minutes, the US Dollar Index (DXY) traded near 97.70, a one-week high. EUR/USD was near 1.1790, GBP/USD near 1.3500, USD/JPY near 154.80, AUD/USD near 0.7040, and USD/CAD near 1.3700. Gold traded around $4,980. Thursday, February 19 includes Australian January Employment Change, the Australian Unemployment Rate, and a speech from ECB President Lagarde. Friday, February 20 includes UK January Retail Sales, Germany February flash HCOB Composite PMIs, Eurozone PMIs, UK flash February S&P Global PMIs, US December Core PCE, and February US S&P Global PMIs. Central banks bought 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual total on record, according to the World Gold Council. Gold often moves in the opposite direction to the US Dollar, US Treasuries, and risk assets. It also tends to rise when interest rates fall. A possible early departure by ECB President Lagarde adds uncertainty for the euro. Recent data showed Eurozone core inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.8% in January 2026. A change in leadership could shift the ECB’s policy path at a critical time. We think buying EUR/USD put options could help hedge risk, or profit, if the pair falls further below 1.1790. The Fed’s flexible, two-sided policy approach suggests volatility may stay high. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows only a 40% chance of a rate cut by June 2026, down from 70% last month. This shift reflects a more hawkish tone. Because of this, long-volatility strategies—such as straddles on the S&P 500 or major currency pairs—may look attractive ahead of key inflation releases.Dollar Strength And Cross Asset Impacts
A stronger dollar is weighing on other currencies, especially where local data is weak. In the UK, wage growth for the three months to December 2025 slowed to 3.5%, the lowest in two years. That makes GBP/USD more vulnerable to a break below the 1.3500 support level. A similar setup is developing in USD/CAD, where Canada’s softer inflation data contrasts with stronger US conditions. Gold near $4,980 is harder to read because a strong US dollar usually puts pressure on prices. Central bank buying in 2022 helped create a long-term support level, but the current setup argues for caution. Gold ETF outflows have jumped to more than $2 billion globally over the past two weeks, suggesting some traders are taking profits after the rally. Looking ahead, Friday’s US Core PCE data could drive sharp moves. This inflation report is a key input for the Fed’s next decision. A higher-than-expected reading could push the DXY toward 98.00 and push rate-cut expectations further out. Using options to limit downside risk ahead of the release may be the safest approach. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Taborsky says EUR/HUF is near two-year lows and the forint is at highs, despite expected NBH rate cuts ahead
EUR/HUF has fallen close to two-year lows. At the same time, the Hungarian forint is hitting new highs as markets expect the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to cut rates. Pricing suggests two 25bp cuts in February and March, with more easing likely later on.
The forint has been supported by a risk-on mood toward emerging market currencies and by pre-election positioning. EUR/HUF is now at a level that many see as giving the NBH room to restart its cutting cycle. If the bank cuts next week, the damage to the currency is expected to be limited.
The market has often sold EUR/HUF rallies. That implies that any forint weakness could bring new buyers back in. Rate cuts reduce carry returns, which could slow further EUR/HUF declines, even if the forint continues to strengthen into the April elections.
Emerging market currencies have been steadier than developed market currencies this year as capital has flowed into emerging markets. This backdrop still supports the forint. Carry trading also remains attractive, even with rate cuts getting closer.
In early 2025, the forint was again testing new highs ahead of the NBH cutting cycle. We viewed that as a signal that the bank could start easing. By then, the market had already fully priced in two 25bp cuts for February and March. That reduced the risk that the first cut would hurt the currency.
With that setup, we treated any short-term forint weakness as a chance to add long positions. For derivatives traders, this pointed to selling out-of-the-money EUR/HUF call options to collect premium, based on the view that upside in the pair was limited. The market repeatedly sold rallies, which supported this approach.
From today’s perspective (February 19, 2026), the strategy worked well through mid-2025. But the picture changed as the NBH cut its base rate aggressively through 2025, bringing it down to 5.75%. As rates fell, the forint carry trade became less attractive, which helped put a floor under EUR/HUF. With January 2026 inflation at 3.8%, the central bank now has much less room to keep easing.
Because early-2025 cuts were clearly communicated, implied volatility on EUR/HUF options stayed relatively low. That made premium-selling strategies more appealing. A global risk-on phase for emerging markets also gave the forint a strong, but temporary, boost. We now know that sentiment shifted in late 2025, when global growth worries pushed investors back toward safe-haven assets.
Even though the rate gap between the Eurozone and Hungary was expected to shrink, carry was still attractive for traders shorting EUR/HUF via forwards. They could lock in a favorable rate and earn the roll yield. Today the forward curve is much flatter, showing that the policy-rate gap between the ECB and the NBH is far smaller than it was a year ago.
Rabobank says Japan’s trade scheme supports US investment projects, shifting partner capital into energy assets beyond markets
Rabobank said the US has announced the first three projects tied to Japan’s $550bn trade deal. The projects include about $33bn for an LNG-powered plant, a crude oil facility, and a synthetic industrial diamonds plant.
The report said these projects show capital flowing into US real assets, not US stocks or bonds. It presented this as a way for Washington to steer where partner countries invest.
Us Trade Deal Projects
Rabobank also pointed to a Trump–Milei trade pact with Argentina. It said this is pressuring the EU to move ahead with its Mercosur free trade agreement, which is currently only applied on a provisional basis. The report added that parts of the US–Argentina deal overlap with, or replace, parts of the Mercosur arrangement. It used this to contrast politically driven trade priorities with technocratic free trade agreements. The article said it was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. There are clear signs the US is now steering foreign capital into specific, real assets instead of letting it flow passively into stocks and bonds. This suggests a strategic shift toward sectors like US energy infrastructure. The data supports this: US LNG export volumes to Japan rose 15% year over year in the last quarter of 2025.Trading Implications For Markets
This looks like a working example of a new geoeconomic strategy. That means traders may want to look beyond broad index trades like SPY. Call options on targeted energy and industrial ETFs, such as XLE or XLI, could benefit if investment continues to focus on these sectors. Foreign direct investment into US energy infrastructure jumped by more than $50bn in the second half of 2025, which supports the case that this money is moving into physical assets. The new trade pact with Argentina may also create clear winners and losers, and it adds pressure to Europe’s ties with Mercosur. This can create pairs-trading setups, such as going long US agricultural commodities while shorting European equivalents. Since the pact was signed late last year, US soybean futures have risen steadily versus European wheat futures as markets price in trade diversion. Overall, this suggests geopolitical alignment now matters more than rule-based trade frameworks, which can increase market volatility. Traders may want to buy protection or use VIX derivatives to hedge against sudden moves after major political headlines. The VIX reflects this shift: it has averaged around 18 so far in 2026, higher than the calmer levels seen in early 2025. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Gold steadies near $5,000 as traders await Fed minutes, after rebounding from Tuesday’s 2% drop
Gold rose on Wednesday after falling more than 2% in the previous session, as traders positioned ahead of the FOMC minutes. The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in January. The minutes may show how divided officials are on the pace of future easing.
US data has been mixed. January CPI fell to a four-year low of 2.4%, while 312K jobs were added in January. Traders are also watching Friday’s PCE inflation report and Q4 GDP.
Geopolitical And Policy Drivers
Progress in US-Iran nuclear talks lowered the risk premium that had helped lift gold to a record above $5,595 in late January. A stronger US Dollar and higher COMEX margin requirements also pressured prices. On the daily chart, XAU/USD opened near $4,880 and climbed to $5,011, keeping prices near the $5,000 level. Price stayed above the 50-day EMA at $4,712 and the 200-day EMA at $4,015. The Stochastic Oscillator hovered near the midline. A close above $5,100 would suggest a move toward $5,300 and the January peak. If $5,000 breaks, focus shifts to support near $4,850 and the early-February swing low around $4,400. In 2025, the market tried to guess the Fed’s next move. Now, in February 2026, uncertainty is back. The Fed has paused its rate-cutting cycle, with rates at 2.75%. January data suggests inflation is still sticky at 2.9%. The economy also added 295,000 jobs, giving policymakers little reason to rush into more easing.Options Strategies For Volatility
Gold’s price action reflects this uncertainty. It has been consolidating below the 2025 highs. The main battleground has shifted from $5,000 to $5,250. A clean break and hold above $5,250 would be needed to signal the uptrend may resume toward the old $5,595 peak. For traders looking for a bullish breakout, buying out-of-the-money call options can be a measured approach. If upcoming data shows economic weakness and pushes the Fed toward easing, a move above $5,250 could be fast. Calls with a $5,400 strike price expiring within the next 45 days may offer exposure to that potential momentum. If the upcoming PCE inflation report is hotter than expected, markets may lean toward a “higher for longer” Fed stance. That could lift the dollar and push gold lower. One way to position for this is to consider put options with a strike near $4,900, especially if price breaks firmly below the $5,100 support level. With several major data releases ahead, implied volatility may rise in the coming weeks. A long straddle—buying a call and a put at the same strike price—can help if you expect a large move but do not want to pick a direction. This strategy aims to benefit from a strong move either up or down. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Cautious investors push AUD/USD near 0.7060 as a stronger US dollar awaits FOMC minutes and Australian jobs data
AUD/USD slipped 0.25% and traded near 0.7060 on Wednesday. Traders stayed cautious ahead of the FOMC minutes due later in the day, and Australia’s jobs report due on Thursday. The US Dollar firmed as markets looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s January meeting account.
Markets will scan the minutes for signals on the US rate outlook, including when cuts might start and how large they could be. If the Fed sounds more cautious on easing, the US Dollar could strengthen and weigh on the Australian Dollar.
Key Event Risks Ahead
Attention is also on Australia’s January employment report. Forecasts point to around 20,000 new jobs after a strong December. The unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 4.2% from 4.1%. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index slowed sharply in January. That suggests weaker economic momentum, even with support from higher commodity prices. Slower growth and tight financial conditions could further pressure activity, while Reserve Bank of Australia expectations remain closely tied to incoming data. We expect the Aussie dollar to struggle near 0.6580 today, slipping slightly as traders stay on the sidelines. The main focus is the Fed minutes later today, followed closely by Australia’s employment data tomorrow. Together, they set up a clear tug-of-war between US and Australian economic signals. The US Dollar is finding support as markets scale back the aggressive rate-cut bets seen late last year. The US January CPI print of 2.9% is another sign inflation remains sticky. If the Fed minutes lean cautious, the greenback could push higher and put more pressure on the Aussie. In Australia, the market is preparing for the January jobs report. Consensus expects about 15,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. This follows weak 0.3% GDP growth in Q4 2025. If the labour market softens, it would likely remove any remaining chance of further RBA rate hikes.Options Strategies To Watch
With these risks in play, we see buying AUD/USD put options as a practical approach for the next few weeks. This can help protect against a drop if the Fed sounds hawkish and Australia’s jobs numbers disappoint. It also offers defined risk while positioning for a move back toward the 0.6400 area seen last year. For traders who are unsure on direction but expect a large move, volatility may offer opportunities. Implied volatility in AUD/USD options has risen ahead of these events. A long straddle could benefit if either the Fed minutes or the jobs report triggers a breakout in either direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.USD/JPY trades near 154.48 as volatility eases, the yen weakens, and US dollar demand improves
USD/JPY rose on Wednesday as the Japanese Yen weakened and the US Dollar strengthened. The pair gained nearly 0.78% and was trading around 154.48 at the time of writing.
The US Dollar was supported by solid US economic data. This led traders to scale back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Focus now shifts to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes, due later in the US session.
Technical Outlook And Key Levels
On the daily chart, the outlook is neutral to mildly bullish. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, which points to lower volatility and a period of consolidation. Price is sitting just below the mid-band and the 20-day Simple Moving Average near 154.73. Resistance sits around 154.70 to 155.00. A clear break above this zone could open the door to a move toward the upper Bollinger Band near 158.14. If price cannot reclaim the 20-day SMA, support is near the lower Bollinger Band around 151.31, followed by 150.00. The Relative Strength Index is near 46, and the Average Directional Index is around 23. USD/JPY is showing low volatility and holding in a tight range. This can suit traders who sell premium. Narrowing Bollinger Bands often come before extended consolidation, similar to what we saw in the third quarter of 2025. In this setup, strategies such as selling short-dated strangles or iron condors can be appealing, aiming to profit if the pair stays between key support and resistance.Macro Drivers And Options Positioning
On the US side, the dollar remains supported, which helps prevent a sharp drop in the pair. January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed core inflation holding at 2.9%. This has pushed out expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and kept US yields elevated. We expect this to keep a floor under USD/JPY near 152.00 in the coming weeks. On the other hand, the main risk limiting gains is possible intervention by Japanese authorities. Verbal warnings increased as the pair neared 158.00 late last year, and the Ministry of Finance has a history of stepping in directly, as seen in the 2024 interventions. This risk makes traders reluctant to drive the pair much higher, creating a clearer ceiling. This push and pull—US Dollar strength versus intervention risk—has kept implied volatility low, making longer-dated options relatively cheap. For traders looking ahead to a potential breakout, buying long-dated straddles may be a sensible way to position for a large move in either direction. The low ADX reading below 25 supports the view that there is no strong trend right now, but this type of market usually does not last forever. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose says Polish markets are pricing less than 25bps of easing despite signals of a March cut, with the zloty lagging
Polish forwards now expect less than 25 bps of rate cuts over the next 3–6 months. At the start of February, they expected more than 25 bps. This change came after the February National Bank of Poland (NBP) rate meeting.
Members of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC)—including Ludwik Kotecki, Gabriela Maslowska, Przemyslaw Litwiniuk, and Henryk Wnorowski—have said there is a high chance of a 25 bps cut at the next meeting. They pointed to a better inflation outlook.
Policy Path After March
After March, there is more debate about where policy goes next. Fewer MPC members now talk about a 3.25% terminal rate. Some have suggested there may be only one 25 bps cut, which would imply a 3.75% terminal rate. Governor Glapinski previously pointed to a 3.50% terminal rate, while other members have discussed more cautious paths. Commerzbank expects the terminal rate to end up below 3.50%. If that happens, the zloty may lag its CE3 peers for a few months. The article also notes it was produced with an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. Forward markets are pricing in less than a 25 bp cut from the NBP, even though several MPC members say a cut in March is likely. This gap between market pricing and central bank messaging suggests an opportunity. We see the dovish tone as a strong sign that a rate cut is close.Implications For Zloty Positioning
The case for a rate cut is supported by recent data. Inflation in January 2026 fell to 3.1%, down from 3.9% in Q4 2025. At the same time, Q4 2025 GDP growth slowed to 2.2%. Together, these figures give the NBP room to start easing policy to support the economy. This makes the MPC’s dovish messaging look more believable than current market pricing suggests. With this outlook, we expect the Polish zloty to underperform for a period. Markets may be underestimating how willing the NBP is to cut rates—not only in March, but potentially beyond that toward a terminal rate below 3.50%. That creates a supportive backdrop for strategies that expect a weaker zloty. For derivatives traders, this argues for positioning for PLN weakness versus its CE3 peers, where central banks are expected to ease more slowly. One idea is long positions in pairs like Czech koruna versus zloty (CZK/PLN). Options that benefit from a higher EUR/PLN—such as buying call spreads—may also look attractive over the next several weeks. This possible shift matters when we look at what the NBP did last year. For most of 2025, it kept the reference rate at 4.00% while waiting for clear proof that inflation pressures were fading. That makes the March meeting more than a one-off decision. It could be the start of a new easing cycle that markets have not fully priced in. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.WTI crude rose as US-Iran nuclear talks unsettled markets and fuelled fears of a Strait of Hormuz closure
The US and Iran ended a second round of nuclear talks in Geneva. Both sides said they made progress on key principles. However, they still disagree on uranium enrichment, sanctions, and how broad the talks should be.
During the talks, Iran held live-fire drills and partially closed the Strait of Hormuz. The strait handles about 20% of global oil flows. This was described as the first closure since the US began a military build-up in the region.
