GBP/USD was steady for a second day, trading near 1.3530 during Asian hours on Tuesday. On the daily chart, the pair is moving sideways inside an ascending channel, which points to a bullish bias.

The pair remains above the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Both EMAs sit below the current price, supporting the upward trend.

Technical Indicators And Trend Context

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 58, which is above the neutral level. It is not in overbought territory.

Looking back to late 2025, we saw a period where bullish sentiment for GBP/USD was strong, with the pair trading constructively within an ascending channel around 1.3530. At that time, key moving averages provided solid support, and the Relative Strength Index suggested buyers were in control. The technical picture then pointed towards continued upside momentum.

The situation has changed considerably as we now see the pair trading near 1.2850. The previous support levels have been broken due to persistent US dollar strength, overriding the technical bullishness we observed last year. This shift reflects a market now dominated by macroeconomic factors rather than the prior technical structure.

Recent data reinforces this view, with the latest US Non-Farm Payroll report showing a robust addition of over 250,000 jobs, strengthening the case for a hawkish Federal Reserve. On the other hand, UK inflation remains elevated at 3.1%, forcing the Bank of England to maintain a firm stance. This policy divergence is a key driver of the pound’s current valuation against the dollar.

Options Strategies And Key Risks

Given the prevailing downward pressure, derivative traders could consider buying put options with a June 2026 expiry to capitalize on potential further declines. A strike price around 1.2750 would offer a way to profit if the current trend continues in the coming weeks. This strategy also serves as a hedge for any existing long positions in the pound.

For those who anticipate that the pair will become range-bound between a strong dollar and a hawkish Bank of England, selling a strangle could be an effective strategy. By selling both a call option with a strike near 1.3000 and a put option with a strike at 1.2700, traders can collect premium from the expectation of low volatility. This approach profits if GBP/USD remains between these two levels until expiration.

We must remain vigilant, as the primary risk to these positions is a sudden change in tone from either central bank. The upcoming meeting minutes from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will be critical to monitor. Any unexpected weakness in US economic data or a surprise drop in UK inflation could quickly reverse the current market dynamics.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Gold prices in the Philippines fell on Tuesday, based on data compiled by FXStreet. Gold was priced at PHP 9,158.46 per gram, down from PHP 9,186.80 on Monday.

Gold also dropped to PHP 106,822.70 per tola from PHP 107,153.00 a day earlier. Other listed prices were PHP 91,584.20 for 10 grams and PHP 284,860.10 per troy ounce.

How Local Gold Prices Are Calculated

FXStreet calculates local gold prices by converting international prices using the USD/PHP exchange rate and local measurement units. The figures are updated daily at publication time, and local rates may vary slightly.

Gold is commonly used as a store of value and for jewellery, and it is often treated as a safe-haven asset in volatile periods. It is also used as a hedge against inflation and currency weakness.

Central banks are the largest holders of gold. World Gold Council data shows central banks added 1,136 tonnes, worth about $70 billion, to reserves in 2022, the highest annual total on record.

Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and it can also move against risk assets such as equities. Prices can be affected by geopolitics, recession fears, interest rates, and US Dollar strength because gold is priced in US dollars.

Key Drivers For The Gold Outlook

The slight dip in gold prices is just daily market noise and should not distract from the larger trends at play. We should instead focus on gold’s relationship with interest rates and the US dollar, which are the real drivers. As a non-yielding asset, gold’s direction in the coming weeks will heavily depend on expectations for the next move from the US Federal Reserve.

Looking back, the Fed’s cautious pivot away from the aggressive rate hikes of 2024 and 2025 has created significant market uncertainty. Recent US inflation data, which came in at a stubborn 2.8% for March 2026, suggests the Fed may delay its next anticipated rate cut. This indecision is an ideal environment for traders using options to bet on price swings around key economic data releases.

We also cannot ignore the powerful underlying demand from central banks, which has provided a solid floor under the gold price. Following the record buying we saw in previous years, global central banks added another 1,050 tonnes to their reserves through 2025, according to World Gold Council data. This persistent buying, particularly from emerging economies, means that any significant price dips are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities by major players.

Geopolitical tensions continue to support gold’s role as a safe-haven asset, encouraging diversification into hard assets. We have seen this play out over the last year with unresolved trade disputes and regional conflicts keeping investors on edge. While a strong rally in equity markets could temporarily draw money away from gold, the fundamental reasons for holding it remain firmly in place.

For derivative traders, this environment suggests focusing on strategies that profit from volatility rather than a specific direction. Straddles or strangles could be effective ways to play the price swings ahead of the next Fed meeting or inflation report. Given the historically high price of gold, using call spreads to position for further upside offers a more capital-efficient approach than buying futures contracts outright.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Gold prices in the United Arab Emirates fell on Tuesday, based on data compiled by FXStreet. Gold was priced at AED 551.34 per gram, down from AED 552.88 on Monday.

The price per tola dropped to AED 6,430.66 from AED 6,448.66 a day earlier. Other listed prices were AED 5,513.71 for 10 grams and AED 17,148.39 per troy ounce.

How FXStreet Calculates Local Gold Prices

FXStreet converts international prices into AED using the USD/AED rate and local measurement units. Prices are updated daily at publication time and are for reference, as local rates may vary slightly.

Central banks are the largest holders of gold. They added 1,136 tonnes worth around $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual total since records began, according to the World Gold Council.

Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and can also move opposite to risk assets such as equities. Prices may also shift with interest rates, geopolitical events and recession fears, and are influenced by the US Dollar as gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD).

We are seeing a minor dip in gold prices today, April 28, 2026, which may present an opportunity. This slight downturn should be viewed against a backdrop of persistent global uncertainty and shifting monetary policy. The key is to determine if this is a brief consolidation before the next move higher.

Potential Strategy Considerations

The current market environment is heavily influenced by expectations of lower interest rates. Looking back, the Federal Reserve’s pivot away from the aggressive hikes of 2024-2025 has made non-yielding assets like gold more appealing. As of this morning, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 3.8%, well below the peaks we saw in late 2025, which supports this view.

We must also consider the immense demand from central banks, which has provided a strong floor for prices. Following the record purchases in 2022 and 2023, central banks, particularly in Asia, continued to add to their reserves throughout 2025, a trend that is showing no signs of stopping. This institutional buying creates a structural demand that limits significant downside potential.

Given these underlying supportive factors, traders could see this small price drop as a chance to enter or add to bullish positions. Buying call options with strike prices above the current market level could be a cost-effective way to speculate on a rebound in the coming weeks. This strategy allows for participation in potential gains while capping the initial risk.

However, we must remain aware of the inverse relationship between gold and the U.S. dollar. Any unexpected economic data that strengthens the dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices. Therefore, any long positions in gold futures or options should be managed with disciplined stop-losses or hedged with exposure to the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Gold prices in Pakistan fell on Tuesday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at PKR 41,934.30 per gram, down from PKR 42,062.44 on Monday.

Gold also dropped per tola to PKR 489,113.50 from PKR 490,608.10 a day earlier. Other listed rates were PKR 419,339.80 for 10 grams and PKR 1,304,309.00 per troy ounce.

Pakistan Gold Rate Update

FXStreet derives Pakistan gold prices by converting international prices using the USD/PKR rate and local units. The figures are updated daily at the time of publication and are intended as reference, as local prices may vary.

Central banks are cited as the largest holders of gold. They added 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion in 2022, according to the World Gold Council, the highest annual total since records began.

Gold is described as often moving opposite to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and also tending to move against risk assets such as equities. Its price can also shift with geopolitical events, recession concerns, interest rates, and changes in the US Dollar because gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD).

We are seeing a slight dip in local gold prices, which reflects a minor pullback from recent highs. This shouldn’t distract from the larger trend of gold’s strength as a safe-haven asset. The continued global uncertainty provides a strong underlying floor for the price.

Market Outlook For Gold

We have to remember the context of the massive central bank buying that defined the market over the past few years. Looking back, the record purchases in 2022 and the over 1,000 tonnes added again in 2023 created a new dynamic of consistent demand. This institutional buying continues to absorb supply and support prices against significant downturns.

The inverse relationship with the US dollar and interest rates is becoming critical again. After a period in 2025 where this link was tested, market focus is now shifting to potential rate cuts later this year as global growth shows signs of slowing. Derivative markets are beginning to price in a more dovish stance, which is historically bullish for non-yielding assets like gold.

For the coming weeks, we should view these small dips as potential opportunities to establish long positions. Using call options could be a prudent way to capture upside potential while defining risk. Selling out-of-the-money puts could also be considered to collect premium, betting that the strong fundamental support will limit any significant sell-offs.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Gold prices in India fell on Tuesday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at INR 14,228.40 per gram, down from INR 14,271.99 on Monday.

Gold dropped to INR 165,958.10 per tola from INR 166,474.50 a day earlier. FXStreet listed prices of INR 142,285.60 for 10 grams and INR 442,531.00 per troy ounce.

How FXStreet Calculates Gold Prices In India

FXStreet converts international gold prices into Indian rupees using USD/INR and local units. Prices are updated daily using market rates at the time of publication, and local rates may vary slightly.

Gold is commonly used as a store of value and is traded as a safe-haven asset during market stress. It is also used as a hedge against inflation and currency weakness.

Central banks are the largest holders of gold. They added 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual total on record, with buying reported in countries including China, India and Turkey.

Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and can also move opposite to risk assets such as equities. Prices may change due to geopolitics, recession fears, interest rates, and US Dollar strength because gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD).

Market Outlook And Trading Strategies

The small dip in gold prices to around 14,228 INR per gram should be seen as a temporary pause rather than a trend reversal. We are looking at this minor pullback in the context of a market that is still digesting the Federal Reserve’s recent ambiguous signals on interest rates. This uncertainty creates an ideal environment for volatility, which derivative traders can use to their advantage.

Underlying support for gold remains exceptionally strong, which suggests buying into this weakness could be a viable strategy. We saw central banks continue their historic purchasing spree throughout 2025, building on the record levels set in the preceding years, with Q1 2026 data from the World Gold Council showing another net increase of over 290 tonnes globally. This consistent institutional demand provides a solid floor for prices.

The inverse correlation with the US Dollar is a key factor to watch in the coming weeks. With the latest US CPI data for March 2026 coming in at a slightly cooler 2.8%, market expectation for a potential rate cut later this year has put some pressure on the dollar. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, which could fuel the next leg up.

Considering the choppy performance of equity markets like the S&P 500, which has struggled to find direction since late 2025, gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset is enhanced. This rotation out of riskier assets, combined with persistent geopolitical tensions, reinforces the bullish case for the metal. Traders might consider buying call options to capitalize on potential upside with a defined risk.

For those anticipating a price rebound but wanting to generate income, selling cash-secured puts at a strike price below the current market level is an attractive option. This strategy allows traders to collect a premium while setting a lower entry point to go long on gold futures if the price briefly declines further. It’s a way to get paid while waiting for the uptrend to resume.

However, if the Federal Reserve signals a more hawkish stance in its next meeting, the US Dollar could strengthen and create a headwind for gold. To hedge against this, a protective strategy using put spreads could be used to profit from or limit losses during a potential short-term downturn. This provides a low-cost method to prepare for any unexpected tightening of monetary policy.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Dear Client,

Affected by international holidays, the trading hours of some VT Markets products will be adjusted. Please check the following link for the affected products:

Holiday Trading Adjustment Notice

Note: The dash sign (-) indicates normal trading hours.

Friendly Reminder:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected]

The Japanese Yen strengthened against major currencies after the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% for a third meeting, pushing USD/JPY down to around 159.25. The decision had been expected, as conflict in the Middle East has raised concerns about the economic outlook.

Markets are awaiting BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference at 06:30 GMT. Attention is on any guidance about a gradual upward policy path and whether inflation pressures are expected to come from growth rather than energy costs.

Focus On The Federal Reserve

The US Dollar focus is on the Federal Reserve decision due on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to hold rates for a third time in the 3.50%–3.75% range, while flagging upside inflation risks and downside growth risks linked to higher oil prices.

In US politics, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Donald Trump discussed Iran’s proposal with the national security team. The proposal includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a permanent ceasefire, and no details were given on whether Washington will pursue it.

BoJ press conferences follow each of its eight scheduled policy meetings. The Governor explains the rate decision, discusses growth and inflation, and gives clues about future policy, which can move the Yen.

The Japanese Yen is getting stronger even though the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its interest rate at 0.75%. This tells us that traders are more focused on the central bank’s future tone than its current actions. Implied volatility in USD/JPY one-week options has jumped to over 14%, signaling that the market is bracing for larger price swings in the days ahead.

Key Volatility Levels

Our attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve meeting this Wednesday, where they are expected to hold rates between 3.50%-3.75%. The significant interest rate difference between the US and Japan, which has consistently stayed above 2.5% for the last eight months, continues to be a major factor supporting the dollar. Traders should therefore watch for any subtle changes in the Fed’s language regarding inflation risks.

We saw a similar situation back in the summer of 2025 when tensions in the South China Sea caused a flight to the yen, pushing USD/JPY down 4% in a week. That move completely reversed once the Fed reiterated its hawkish inflation stance a month later. This reminds us that geopolitical-driven currency moves can be short-lived if the underlying monetary policy divergence remains.

The wild card remains the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and its effect on oil. With Brent crude futures for June delivery hovering near $95 a barrel, any news on the Strait of Hormuz could cause a significant price shock. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) is already elevated at 45, meaning options traders are paying a high premium for protection against sudden price spikes.

Given the binary risks from both the Fed’s announcement and potential geopolitical news, we are looking at long straddles on USD/JPY. This options strategy allows us to profit from a significant price move in either direction without having to guess the outcome correctly. It is a pure play on the expectation that volatility will increase from here.

We are watching key option strike prices with significant open interest clustered around the 158.00 and 161.00 levels. These areas represent where large volumes of derivative contracts are positioned, making them important zones of potential support or resistance. A decisive break of these levels following the Fed’s statement could trigger the next major trend.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Silver fell about 1.5% to around $74.40 per troy ounce in Asian trading on Tuesday, slipping below $74.50. The drop came as the US–Iran conflict raised energy costs and added to inflation pressure.

The inflation shock increased expectations that central banks may keep policy tighter for longer. Markets also assessed the chance of a ceasefire after a new Iranian message to the United States.

Ceasefire Signals And Market Impact

Iran reportedly sent details via Pakistan, saying fighting could stop if the US lifts its naval blockade, changes transit rules through Hormuz, and gives assurances against future military action. A US official said on Monday that President Donald Trump rejected the proposal, while Iranian sources said Tehran would not discuss its nuclear programme until hostilities and Gulf shipping disputes are settled.

Attention is also on central bank meetings this week. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, which would be the third hold in a row.

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates at 0.75% on Tuesday. The European Central Bank is expected to keep its deposit rate at 2.0% on Thursday.

With silver slipping below $74.50, we are seeing the market react to war-driven inflation rather than geopolitical risk. The ongoing US-Iran conflict is strengthening expectations that central banks, particularly the Fed, will keep interest rates high to fight rising prices. This directly pressures non-yielding assets like silver.

Strategy And Positioning Considerations

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its rate at the 3.50-3.75% range this Wednesday, a decision reinforced by the latest US Consumer Price Index report, which showed inflation accelerating to 4.1% year-over-year. For us, this hawkish stance solidifies the high opportunity cost of holding silver compared to interest-bearing assets. This environment is reminiscent of past periods where high nominal rates weighed heavily on precious metals.

In the coming weeks, we should consider positioning for further weakness in XAG/USD. Buying put options with May and June expiration dates offers a clear way to capitalize on potential declines while managing risk. Short-selling silver futures is a more direct approach for those anticipating a break below key technical support levels.

Market data already reflects this bearish sentiment, as implied volatility for silver put options has increased noticeably over the past week. This indicates a growing demand for downside protection among traders. This is a signal that many are preparing for the price to fall further before it finds a stable floor.

Furthermore, we should note silver’s underperformance relative to gold. The gold/silver ratio has recently expanded to 90:1, up from an average of 85:1 we saw through most of 2025. This shows that in the current environment, gold’s safe-haven appeal is outweighing silver’s, which is also being hurt by concerns over slowing industrial demand.

The prospect of a prolonged high-rate environment is a double-edged sword for silver, as it not only increases holding costs but also threatens to dampen industrial activity. Since over half of silver’s demand comes from industrial applications, a potential economic slowdown triggered by tight monetary policy puts a firm ceiling on any price rallies. This industrial headwind was a consistent theme that capped silver’s performance back in 2025.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

WTI rose for a second day, trading near $95.20 per barrel during Asian hours on Tuesday. Prices were supported as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut, tightening Middle East supply.

Markets also assessed ceasefire prospects and whether the route could reopen after a new Iranian proposal to the US. Iran reportedly said via Pakistan that hostilities could end if the US lifts its naval blockade, changes Hormuz transit rules, and offers guarantees against future military action.

Ceasefire Proposal And Sticking Points

A US official said on Monday that President Donald Trump was dissatisfied with the proposal. Iranian sources said Tehran would not address its nuclear programme until fighting stops and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved.

The conflict is in its ninth week, lifting energy prices and disrupting supply chains. The International Energy Agency warned of a potential supply shock alongside slowing demand risks.

Iran restricted flows through Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil and gas, while the US kept a blockade of Iranian ports. Reuters ship-tracking data showed six Iranian tankers turned back, while an ADNOC LNG tanker crossed Hormuz and was nearing India.

With West Texas Intermediate holding near $95.50, we see the market is priced for this conflict but is extremely sensitive to daily headlines. The nine-week shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz creates a high-stakes environment where any news about the US naval blockade or Iranian proposals can cause sharp price swings. Traders must be prepared for this heightened volatility to continue in the coming weeks.

Market Pricing And Trading Implications

The situation presents a clear binary choice based on the outcome of ceasefire negotiations. A successful deal that reopens the strait would likely send prices tumbling back towards the low $80s, while a definitive collapse in talks could push crude oil well past the $100 mark. We are essentially trading geopolitical speculation, not just supply and demand fundamentals.

This uncertainty is reflected in the derivatives market, where the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has surged to over 50, a level we haven’t seen since the major supply disruptions of 2022. This high implied volatility makes buying options expensive, but holding unhedged positions is even riskier. We believe using options to define risk is the most sensible approach right now.

Even before this crisis, the market was tight, a fact we saw in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) data showing consistent inventory draws through March and early April 2026. The International Energy Agency’s last monthly report had already pointed to a global supply deficit for the second quarter. The Hormuz disruption, which affects nearly 21 million barrels of oil per day, is amplifying a pre-existing problem.

Given the sharp potential moves in either direction, strategies that profit from volatility, such as straddles or strangles, should be considered. These allow a trader to benefit from a large price move without having to correctly guess the direction of the breakout. Simple directional bets through futures contracts carry immense risk if diplomatic news suddenly shifts the narrative.

We must also watch for small signs that the blockade is not absolute, as these could cap price gains. The successful passage of an ADNOC LNG tanker to India suggests some energy flows are continuing, which might prevent a full-blown panic. Closely monitoring ship-tracking data for any increase in tanker traffic will be a critical leading indicator for us.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

USD/CAD rebounded from a dip in Asia on Tuesday, after a modest bounce from sub-1.3600 levels that were the lowest since 12 March. It traded near 1.3630, with limited upside due to opposing drivers.

Mixed messages on US-Iran peace talks supported the US dollar through safe-haven demand. Iran reportedly sent the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while leaving nuclear talks for later.

Key Geopolitical Drivers

The Wall Street Journal reported that US President Donald Trump was sceptical about Iran acting in good faith or accepting his demand to end nuclear enrichment. At the same time, disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz kept crude oil prices elevated.

Higher oil prices supported the Canadian dollar and capped gains in USD/CAD. Traders were also cautious ahead of central bank decisions.

The Bank of Canada announces policy on Wednesday, followed by the outcome of the two-day FOMC meeting. Markets are watching whether higher energy prices raise inflation pressures and affect the policy outlook, which could drive the next move in USD/CAD.

The USD/CAD is showing renewed strength, trading around 1.3750 as of April 28, 2026. This price action is reminiscent of the uncertainty we saw back in 2025 during the US-Iran geopolitical tensions. At that time, conflicting fundamentals created a tense, range-bound market, a pattern that may be re-emerging.

Policy Divergence Outlook

Crude oil remains a critical factor, with WTI currently holding strong above $85 a barrel, a level that typically supports the Canadian dollar. Unlike the sudden, conflict-driven price spikes of 2025, today’s elevated prices are due to persistent supply discipline and steady global demand. This provides a fundamental floor for the loonie but is not enough to drive it significantly higher against the dollar.

The main driver now is the clear policy divergence between the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the US Federal Reserve. With recent Canadian inflation cooling to 2.5%, the BoC is openly discussing potential rate cuts by summer. Conversely, the Fed is holding firm after the latest US inflation print came in hotter than expected at 3.4%, pushing back any rate cut expectations.

This tug-of-war suggests implied volatility in USD/CAD options is likely underpriced for the coming weeks. We believe derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from a significant move in either direction, such as long straddles, rather than making simple directional bets. The market is pricing in a calm that the diverging economic data does not justify.

Therefore, establishing positions in three-month options could be a prudent way to capture the fallout from the next round of central bank meetings. Look for a sustained break of the 1.3800 level as a signal for further USD strength. A failure to break that resistance could see the pair fall back towards the 1.3650 support level on any dovish Fed commentary.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.