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CFTC data shows an increase in US S&P 500 NC net positions to -$96.6K
The United States CFTC has reported an improvement in the S&P 500 net positions, which increased from -$122.2K to -$96.6K. This change reflects market activities and adjustments over time.
The EUR/USD exchange rate bounced back to around 1.1330 after dropping to 1.1300, influenced by trade-related news. Similarly, the GBP/USD rose above 1.3500 due to strong UK retail sales data.
The Eurozone’s CFTC EUR NC net positions decreased from €84.8K to €74.5K
Eurozone CFTC EUR net positions fell from €84.8K to €74.5K, showing a drop in net positions held. This change reflects recent market trends.
The EUR/USD pair recovered to around 1.1330 after finding support near 1.1300. This increase happened as President Trump suggested a “straight 50% tariff” on European imports, affecting trading conditions.
GBP/USD rose above 1.3500, boosted by a weaker US Dollar and strong April retail sales data from the UK. At the same time, gold prices remained strong, trading near $3,350 per ounce, supported by the declining dollar.
Apple’s stock sank below $200 after Trump warned of more tariffs if the company doesn’t produce iPhones in the US. Following these threats, US equity futures dropped more than 1%.
Ripple’s price increased, as large holders bought more XRP, even though rising exchange reserves signal caution. Finding reliable brokers for trading EUR/USD can help, offering good spreads and solid platforms for all traders.
Eurozone net positions for the euro decreased last week, dropping from nearly 85,000 to about 74,500 contracts, according to the latest CFTC data. This indicates less bullish interest in the euro, suggesting traders are scaling back on long positions. The decline signals a move away from previous confidence, with traders showing more caution as they anticipate less supportive monetary policies or geopolitical tensions.
The euro bounced off the 1.1300 level, moving up towards 1.1330. This rise aligned with Trump’s comments about a 50% tariff on European goods, creating more market pressure. Political statements like this can influence trading significantly, as they may lead to increased demand for safe-haven assets or shift expectations for future central bank policies.
Sterling climbed above 1.3500, driven by strong UK retail sales and a generally weaker dollar. This rise is largely attributed to the dollar’s softness, indicating that the GBP/USD pair reacts more to dollar movements than to domestic data alone. External factors, especially those tied to Federal Reserve rate expectations and trade policy, are major influences here.
Gold remains well above $3,300 per ounce, currently around $3,350, benefiting from the dollar’s continued weakness. Historically, when the dollar weakens, gold prices tend to rise, especially with low US yields. This relationship is now more mechanical than influenced by sentiment, as the inverse correlation between gold and the dollar deepens. Rising prices should not be mistaken for a flight to safety; they instead reflect dollar positioning trends.
In other news, Apple’s shares dropped below $200 due to concerns over tariffs. Warnings about penalizing foreign production affected sentiment, causing not just a decline in Apple’s stock but also a fall in broader futures markets by more than 1%. Such corrections can gain momentum quickly unless countered by policy reassurances or comments from central banks. Past reactions to tariff news often show a short-term decline followed by renewed focus on liquidity and fiscal measures.
Ripple (XRP) saw some gains as large holders increased their investments. However, rising reserves on exchanges indicate that while some are buying, others may be looking to sell. This creates two groups: early investors and those waiting for liquidity to exit. This divergence can lead to sideways movement or short-term volatility spikes. It’s important to look at broader market flows and network activity rather than focus solely on single-holding statistics at this point.
Overall, movements in major currency pairs and assets warrant tighter risk management. Market participants are reducing exposure and avoiding long-term bets in light of new policy threats. Directional impulses appear short-term and largely influenced by headlines. Not all price movements reflect a fundamental shift. Traders should prioritize liquidity and market maker behavior instead of just following news cycles. Better execution and cost efficiency, rather than bold bets, may be beneficial in the coming weeks.
Mexican Peso remains stable against the US Dollar amid rising US-EU trade tensions
The Mexican Peso remains stable against the US Dollar, even with proposed US tariffs on the European Union. The USD/MXN exchange rate is below 19.30 as we receive new economic updates from both Mexico and the US.
Concerns about a US recession are growing due to Trump’s suggested 50% tariff on EU imports. Mexico’s trade balance for April showed an $88 million deficit, which is better than the expected $160 million. This marks a significant shift from March’s $3.442 billion surplus, according to INEGI.
Trump’s Tariff Proposal
Trump has proposed a 50% tariff on EU imports starting June 1st, citing difficulties in negotiations. Recent US news includes Trump’s tax bill and Moody’s credit rating downgrade, both of which affect the Dollar’s strength. There are rising worries about possible global economic effects from these tariffs that could impact companies like Apple. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that Trump’s tax bill might increase the US deficit by $3.8 trillion from 2026 to 2034. The impact of Moody’s downgrade and Trump’s tax policy puts added pressure on the US Dollar. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 94.7% chance that interest rates will remain between 4.25% and 4.50% in June, with no changes expected until September. Mexico’s inflation and GDP data align with expectations, easing pressure on Banxico to make further rate cuts. The USD/MXN exchange rate remains below 19.30, signaling a possible downtrend, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.92.The Impact of the Federal Reserve
The US Dollar is widely used in global transactions and makes up 88% of forex trading. The value of the Dollar is predominantly influenced by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. To manage inflation and employment, the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, affecting the Dollar’s strength. Moreover, processes like quantitative easing and tightening impact the Dollar’s value during various economic conditions. The Peso’s current position under the 19.30 mark shows its resilience despite international tensions. Even with new tariff threats from the US, we haven’t seen the typical increase in the USD/MXN exchange rate. Recent Mexican trade data performed better than expected, even though it still shows a deficit, which indicates that Mexico’s economic situation may not be as weak as many thought. The smaller deficit in April compared to March’s surplus raises questions about export stability or shifting demand. Those tracking these flows will want to consider this month’s change, especially if future trade data is weaker. A growing trade deficit can indicate future pressure on the currency unless it is balanced out by investment inflows or other foreign exchange sources. In the US, proposed tariffs and Washington’s fiscal policies bring their own consequences. A 50% tariff on EU goods set to begin in early June goes beyond normal trade negotiations. If enacted, this could affect transatlantic trade and lead to inflation and consumption changes. Traders will closely watch for retaliatory actions and shifts in global supply chains, which historically cause fluctuations in safe-haven investments. Short-term fiscal policy projections are becoming concerning. The expected $3.8 trillion increase in US deficits over the next decade due to possible tax changes weighs heavily, especially in light of slower growth and credit downgrades. These elements can undermine confidence in US debt stability, particularly if rating agencies continue to downgrade their forecasts. It is clear why the Federal Reserve is keeping rates steady. The CME’s probabilities suggest policymakers see risks on both sides—growth and inflation—and are prepared to wait. While markets often seek direction, this pause invites volatility as expectations shift with new data. The Dollar remains contained within a narrow range, but ongoing stressors like tariffs and fiscal issues could quickly alter perceptions. In Mexico, steady inflation alongside consistent growth data reduces the justification for Banxico to ease policies further. This supports the Peso, even without aggressive tightening, giving it a carry advantage due to differing policies with the Fed. However, if growth weakens or inflation rises, easing expectations might be reignited. Technically, the 19.30 level acts as a barrier to any upward movement of the Dollar. The current RSI of 38.92 is below the neutral 50 mark, signaling a bearish sentiment for the pair. While this doesn’t guarantee a quick reversal, it shows a shift from the stronger USD/MXN rates we saw earlier this year. The Fed’s actions or inactions can significantly influence market prices. Their balance sheet strategies—like asset purchasing or roll-offs—alter liquidity flows. These approaches, although not flashy, have implications for cross-border capital flows and can impact demand for foreign exchange. As tariff announcements coincide with steady interest rates and looming fiscal concerns, it becomes evident that short-term positioning isn’t a straightforward decision. There are many factors at play—some like deficit growth are slow-moving, while others, like trade policies, can have immediate effects. This will keep the dynamics between the Dollar and Peso volatile in the near term. Those monitoring spreads, forward rates, or interbank liquidity should remain vigilant about how these variables interact over time. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Canadian dollar surges against weakening US dollar due to tariff threats
The Canadian Dollar rose over 1% against the US Dollar on Friday, benefiting from the US Dollar’s decline. This increase followed new tariff threats from US President Donald Trump.
The Loonie’s performance has closely followed market sentiment due to recent Canadian economic data. With US markets closing for an extended weekend and fewer data releases on the way, focus will shift to the US PCE inflation data coming out on Friday.
Recent Performance of the Canadian Dollar
The Canadian Dollar hit its highest level against the US Dollar since last October, pushing the USD/CAD pair close to 1.3700. This pair has dropped for five consecutive sessions, and technical indicators suggest that it might be oversold, hinting at a potential recovery. Several factors influence the CAD, including Bank of Canada interest rates, oil prices, economic health, and inflation. Typically, higher oil prices and interest rates are good for the CAD, while weak economic indicators can hurt its value. As oil is Canada’s top export, changes in oil prices directly affect the CAD’s value. Economic reports like GDP and employment data also play a crucial role, as they reflect the economy’s strength and can lead to rate adjustments. With significant market volatility returning, the Canadian Dollar’s rise stands out—not only for its speed but also for its underlying reasons. The US Dollar’s drop, due to President Trump’s trade comments, created an opening for the Loonie, which seized the opportunity. The CAD’s gains of more than 1% during this brief period highlight how responsive it can be to external changes, especially when combined with internal stability. So, what unfolded last week? The USD/CAD pair steadily decreased over five trading days, reaching levels unseen since last fall, around 1.3700. This steady decline suggests positive momentum, though a crowded move indicates a possible pause is near. Momentum indicators show signs of fatigue, and a snapback wouldn’t be surprising—though whether it leads to a sustained bounce remains uncertain. For now, the focus shifts to short-term catalysts.Factors Impacting Canadian Dollar Movements
With major US markets on an extended break and high-impact data lacking earlier this week, attention now turns to upcoming events on the calendar. All eyes are on Friday and the PCE inflation report in the US, which is the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation metric. Any discrepancies from the forecast will significantly affect macro positioning. Remember, the Fed’s interest rate policies continue to guide the USD’s direction, impacting currencies like the CAD. Looking ahead, we have a clear checklist. First, Canadian economic reports this week, though not particularly glamorous, still demand attention. These include national GDP and any employment forecasts. Weak data, especially alongside dovish comments from the central bank, could hinder the CAD’s recent gains. Conversely, stronger-than-expected growth or employment data would support higher BoC rate expectations, which historically boosts the currency. Oil prices also play a crucial role. As Canada’s economy is closely linked to energy, movements in Brent and WTI should not be ignored. Any new triggers for rising crude prices—like geopolitical tensions, OPEC updates, or tighter inventories—usually strengthen the CAD, sometimes even without domestic data playing a role. This link is well-known, but during quieter news weeks, commodity dynamics take on added importance. As we assess our next steps, we combine this short-term analysis with broader structural trends. Recent currency movements have been influenced heavily by policy speculation and external news. However, internal conditions also matter significantly, especially for a commodity-backed currency like the CAD. From a strategy perspective, reactivity may prove more beneficial than prediction. Continued USD softness alongside steady Canadian data could lead to further CAD gains, but current crowded short USD/CAD positions increase the risk of quick reversals if Washington surprises with hawkish news. We can’t overlook the technical outlook either. With the pair near oversold levels and at key price points from the past, it’s reasonable to expect some short-term balancing. Traders looking to enter positions might want to avoid chasing breakouts now; better risk-reward opportunities could arise after a brief consolidation or pullback. Overall, the broader picture remains the same: policy direction is still key, but commodity trends and domestic data are also crucial. The combination of these factors over the next few days will influence the bias as we approach the PCE report. After that, predictions will shift once again. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.President Trump discusses Samsung in recent tariff talks during a press conference about orders.
US President Donald Trump has discussed possible tariffs on Samsung, building on previous comments on social media. He also mentioned a potential deal with Japan’s Nippon Steel to acquire US Steel, which involves a $4 billion investment to make it a subsidiary.
**Key Points:**
– Trump proposed tariffs on EU and Apple products and indicated that manufacturing plants would need to be in the US to avoid these tariffs.
– He noted that some products are better made outside the US and believes tariffs will benefit the economy. He anticipates a $14 billion boost from the US Steel and Nippon Steel deal.
Market Reactions
Markets reacted steadily to Trump’s tariff comments, with the US Dollar Index approaching 99.00. Investors prepared for a three-day weekend, having processed recent trade-related news. A tariff is a charge on imported goods that helps local companies compete while providing revenue for the government. Unlike taxes collected at the point of sale, tariffs are imposed at the port. Trump aims to use tariffs strategically against Mexico, China, and Canada, funding personal income tax cuts with the revenue. We’ve seen similar situations in the past, but this time Trump’s focus on Samsung and other targets indicates a shift in strategy toward encouraging domestic production. By linking Nippon Steel’s $4 billion investment to economic outcomes, he intertwines trade with the country’s industrial capacity and foreign reliance.Strategic Use of Tariffs
The main takeaway from these developments is that these comments are part of a larger strategy. Tariffs are being used not just as protective measures but as incentives for foreign companies to set up operations in the US. Trump hinted that tariffs could be avoided if manufacturing moves domestic. He asserted that sometimes, foreign production might be more effective, not just cheaper. He connected tariffs to economic strength, suggesting the steel acquisition will generate $14 billion in benefits. While it’s unclear how this figure was calculated, it’s intended to highlight potential economic gains, whether accurately represented or not. This framework is significant in assessing market risks. Market responses to these comments were initially calm. The Dollar Index rose steadily to 99.00, a level not reached in months. This mild movement likely shows a waning sensitivity to trade discussions and expectations for little immediate action on policy. With traders entering a long weekend, market participation slowed, limiting more extensive reactions. It’s crucial to understand how tariffs work. They are border charges paid by importers, not foreign manufacturers, who pass costs along to consumers or absorb them. The hope is that these pressures will shift production to local alternatives. Trump also suggested that increased tariff revenue could reduce personal income taxes. This strategy shifts tax reliance from domestic sources to imports, but its effectiveness relies on import levels and demand. In the short term, we should closely monitor implied volatility, especially related to tech and manufacturing sectors in Asia and Europe. While equities may not drop just due to headlines, the potential for heightened hedging increases once formal policies are announced. Short-term premiums may rise as markets reopen after the holiday, depending on any further comments from affected companies or international allies. Some traders may adjust their positions in anticipation of the next round of trade discussions—whether to counter initial reactions or hedge if tensions escalate. Others may consider impacts on steel prices or broader industrial input costs. Timing trades will require careful discipline, as news and commentary can shift rapidly, sometimes even reversing before market rates adjust. For now, we believe these announcements, despite their political implications, present opportunities for significant market movements when investors return in full force. Observing changes in correlations or market tensions in sectors such as automotive, electronics, or raw material imports can provide early indicators of market adjustments. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Strengthening retail sales data and USD weakness push NZD/USD closer to 0.6000
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rose against the US Dollar (USD) due to better-than-expected Retail Sales data and a weaker USD. The NZD/USD pair approached the 0.6000 level, showing a 1.50% gain that broke above the 20-day Simple Moving Average of 0.5928.
New Zealand’s Retail Sales for the first quarter increased by 0.8%, beating the forecast of 0.1%. This suggests that consumer spending is stable. Additionally, the New Zealand Treasury revised its 2025/2026 deficit forecast down from 1.9% to 1.3%.
US Dollar Weakness
In the US, the proposed 50% tariff on EU imports led to USD outflows, weakening the dollar. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% in upcoming meetings, despite an uncertain economic outlook. The strength of the New Zealand Dollar is impacted by the country’s economic health, central bank policies, and the performance of the Chinese economy. Dairy prices also play a significant role, as they are New Zealand’s main export. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) influences the NZD through interest rate decisions aimed at controlling inflation. Economic data and general market sentiment also affect the currency’s value. As the New Zealand dollar rises, traders may see stronger momentum than expected. The positive retail sales data—a quarterly increase of 0.8% compared to a 0.1% forecast—has caused a noticeable response in the currency markets. This suggests that consumer confidence is better than some analysts predicted, supporting a brighter outlook for domestic growth. Simultaneously, the Kiwi has gained from the USD’s struggles. The US dollar weakened after the announcement of new tariffs on EU imports, which markets viewed as inflationary, leading to capital flowing abroad. This outflow supported risk-sensitive currencies like the NZD. Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s recent statements have reduced expectations for a near-term interest rate hike. With projections keeping the Fed funds target in the 4.25% to 4.50% range, this modest policy stance lowers the appeal of USD-denominated assets. Fewer rate hikes can lead to smaller interest differentials, which financial markets quickly reflect.Budgetary Context and Fiscal Forecast
In addition to funding flows, budgetary factors are also important. The New Zealand government lowered its expected deficit increase from 1.9% to 1.3%. While this change alone may not sway sentiment significantly, it hints at stronger economic fundamentals. These factors combined present more than just a short-term reaction. The movement above the 20-day moving average at 0.5928 happened on strong trading volume, indicating determination. Traders focusing on short-term trends will now keep an eye on the 0.6000 level as a potential resistance point, looking for sustained gains. We should also consider the economic conditions in China. Positive indicators from the Chinese economy generally support the Kiwi, while weaker signals can pull it back. Dairy exports are crucial to New Zealand’s trade, and global dairy auction prices influence its currency value. While the impact may not be immediate, the relationship remains significant. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand continues to shape medium-term expectations. As the RBNZ aims to control inflation, any major shift in their outlook could change the dynamics. Interest rate policy is key, especially as markets have become more sensitive to interest rate differences. For those watching derivatives, recent changes challenge previous volatility expectations, prompting a review of hedging strategies. Option prices may adjust rapidly if implied volatility changes. If the interest rate paths of the Fed and RBNZ diverge further or converge, that shift will impact futures positioning and FX swaps. In summary, strong retail performance, favorable fiscal adjustments, and weakening US policies have combined to benefit the NZD. This creates opportunities, but careful adjustments are necessary. The landscape has shifted, and it’s important to update assumptions accordingly. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.EUR/USD rises above 1.1300 to around 1.1350 after Trump’s tariff threats
During the North American trading session on Friday, EUR/USD bounced back after briefly dipping below 1.1300. This occurred after US President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on the EU, set to start on June 1, 2025. The pair hit a low of 1.1296 but quickly recovered to around 1.1350 as worries about rising US fiscal deficits affected the US Dollar.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized EU proposals, adding more pressure on the US Dollar. The US tax bill, which might lead to an additional $4 trillion in debt over the next ten years, also contributed to the downward pressure. In contrast, the Euro gained support from Germany’s stronger GDP figures, which showed yearly growth even if quarterly results were still negative.
Euro’s Momentum and Market Dynamics
US economic data was mixed; while Building Permits decreased, New Home Sales rose, showing continued demand despite limited availability. EUR/USD is technically on an upward trend, reaching a two-week high at 1.1375. If it breaks above 1.1400, the next resistance levels to watch are 1.1450 and 1.1500. However, if it drops below 1.1300, it may retest the May 22 low of 1.1255. The Euro is gaining strength as sentiment shifts to “sell America,” leading to declines in US bonds and equities amid trade tensions and a recent downgrade of US debt. Currently, EUR/USD is showing strong upward momentum, driven by concerns over US fiscal policies and a change in global sentiment. The earlier dip below 1.1300 was brief and lacked strong momentum to push lower. The quick recovery above 1.1350 suggests that traders are not ready to adopt a bearish outlook at this time. The rise to 1.1375 reinforces the idea that interest in the Euro is not just a temporary reaction but a growing trend. Trump’s tariff announcement for mid-2025, although significant, will take time to implement. Nonetheless, the potential for future trade barriers has already begun influencing capital movements. The notable reaction in US assets shows that investors are responding to anticipated uncertainties today. Bessent’s statements, while politically charged, have had real market implications. This has led to increased Euro interest due to instability concerns surrounding American fiscal policy. Additionally, the Euro’s strength stems not just from a weaker Dollar but also from stable European data. Even though Germany’s quarterly GDP might be down, its yearly growth offers reassurance. Traders seek any positive signs to counteract global worries, and even slight improvements in significant export economies can encourage a shift back to the Euro.Watching Key Levels in EUR/USD
In the US, mixed housing data have provided little support for the Dollar. Falling building permits hint at potential weaknesses in construction, while rising new home sales show strong demand against limited supply. These inconsistencies highlight a broader narrative suggesting that while the US economy is resilient, it may be nearing a tipping point where fiscal challenges and interest rates become problematic. Looking at price levels, 1.1400 appears vulnerable. There is a clear chance to test 1.1450 or even 1.1500 if the momentum stays strong and US data remains unhelpful. Conversely, if 1.1300 breaks again without recovery, May’s low of 1.1255 becomes relevant, especially with ongoing macroeconomic pressures. For those focused on interest rates and policy differences, this market has evolved beyond a single-variable focus. There are now more traders betting against US government securities, and they are doing so in significant volumes. This shift isn’t only about domestic inflation or job numbers anymore; the US debt downgrade has triggered concerns about long-term returns on US fixed-income assets. As broad equity weakness aligns with declines in sovereign debt markets, the trend continues to favor currencies that aren’t directly affected by these issues. The Euro, despite its own challenges, currently appears to present fewer structural risks. For now, it’s crucial to watch 1.1375 and observe how prices act around 1.1400. Any sustained move above this range should be seen as a continuation rather than an overreach. On pullbacks, the focus will be on the 50-day moving average, currently just above 1.1300, which has held as support recently and could do so again. We believe that short-term trades should prioritize acceleration rather than reversal until a new factor disrupts the existing balance. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.US Dollar Index drops over 1.8% to two-week low due to tariff concerns and fiscal worries
The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped below 99.50, falling 1.8% this week. This decline came as traders grew more cautious amid threats from US President Donald Trump about new tariffs. Trump proposed a 50% tariff on European goods and a 25% tariff on Apple products made overseas.
Trump’s strong statements about trade revived fears of a trade war, impacting global markets. His tariff warning came just before US-EU trade talks, with the new tariffs set to begin on June 1.
Economic Impact of Proposed Tariffs
These tariffs could potentially cut EU exports to the US by 20%. Moving forward, investors will keep an eye on upcoming economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials to better understand the US economic outlook. Right now, the US Dollar is weakest against the Euro. When looking at currency exchange rates, the Dollar is declining against many major currencies. The US Dollar is the most traded currency worldwide and is heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Actions like quantitative easing or tightening by the Fed significantly affect the Dollar’s strength. The DXY’s recent drop below 99.50 and 1.8% weekly loss reflects more than just trader sentiment. It shows how sensitive currency pricing has become to external policy changes. This decline happened during a time of heightened safety concerns, especially after President Trump’s renewed tariff threats, which unsettled global markets. He proposed a 50% tariff on EU goods and a 25% tax on Apple products made abroad, to start on June 1. These comments came just as trade representatives from the US and EU prepared to restart discussions. The timing seems intentional. Predictions suggest EU exports to the US could shrink by 20%, raising expectations for possible responses from Brussels. Traders dealing in Euro-based assets will likely consider these risks moving forward.Shifting Currency Dynamics
In the short term, the Euro has benefitted from the Dollar’s weakness. As the Dollar fell, the Euro gained strength, driven by traders adjusting their positions and covering previous bets. The Dollar’s decline was broad, impacting the entire G10 currency group, with even the Yen and Swiss Franc seeing slight gains. Central bank decisions often serve as a benchmark for Dollar pricing, so all eyes are on upcoming comments from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members. It’s important to analyze their statements closely—any changes in views on employment, inflation risks, or balance sheet plans could influence short-term market volatility. In the next two weeks, it is crucial to understand whether the recent market movements are due to lasting policy changes or temporary geopolitical reactions. If futures markets begin to reduce their expectations for future interest rate hikes, or even consider rate cuts, this could lead to more selling pressure on the Dollar throughout June. Looking at current positions, interest in derivatives is showing an increasing preference for long Euro and short Dollar bets. Traders holding these positions should watch liquidity conditions closely during peak EU-US trading hours, particularly as key economic data is released. The risks are balanced; if sentiment changes or tariffs are reversed, there could be a sharp turnaround. We are monitoring new CPI and NFP figures, as these will challenge current market assumptions. A surprising rise in inflation could strengthen the case for a more aggressive Federal Reserve, potentially reversing the Dollar’s recent decline. The market’s current assumptions rely on continued global instability, and it wouldn’t take much to shift that perception. Hedging portfolios around key events, including the next major central bank meeting and reactions to payroll data, seems wise. Currently, volatility premiums on weekly options are higher than usual, indicating uncertainty around trade talks and domestic economic signals. We continue to observe whether the recent risk-averse trend will last or if it will be a short-lived reaction. For now, maintaining flexibility in trading strategies and reducing leverage during critical events appears to be a sensible approach. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Crude oil recovers to over $61.00 as prices stabilise within a narrow range
WTI crude oil has climbed back to $61.00, trading in a tight range between the 10-day and 20-day simple moving averages (SMAs). This increase has helped recover losses from Thursday, with WTI oil now up by 1.20%, turning the $61.00 level from resistance into support.
Recently, WTI dipped but didn’t fall below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 60.588, giving some temporary relief. The 20-day SMA is at 60.419, while the 10-day SMA serves as resistance close to 61.805. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 49.00, indicating neutral momentum.
Key Price Levels And Technical Indicators
For prices to rise further, WTI needs to move above the 10-day SMA and the $62.00 barrier. This could open the door to higher targets, like the 50-day SMA at 63.270. On the flip side, falling below 60.588 could bring the April low of 58.376 into play. WTI is a high-quality oil from the United States, influenced by supply and demand, global economic growth, political events, and decisions made by OPEC. Weekly inventory data from API and EIA also impact prices. OPEC sets production quotas, affecting both supply and price, and OPEC+ includes other members, including Russia. The article discusses WTI crude oil’s current price movement and how technical levels affect it. The bounce back to $61.00 is significant; it has shifted from a resistance level to support. This classic reversal suggests more stability if buying interest continues. Prices have shown a bounce above this critical level, highlighting some market caution with strong forces pushing in both directions. Although prices dipped earlier, they managed to hold above the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 60.588, which is calculated from recent highs and lows to measure pullbacks. This level helped absorb selling pressure. Just below, the 20-day moving average at 60.419 has historically served as a pivot point in ongoing trends. Resistance tightens around the 10-day SMA, currently at 61.805. While these are short-term levels, they play an important role in trading strategies.Market Influences And Risk Management
The Relative Strength Index, at 49.00, suggests there is no clear momentum either way. It doesn’t indicate extreme selling nor show strong buying pressure – we are in a waiting phase. Thus, a confirmed break above the 10-day SMA and the $62.00 mark could open known technical zones for upward moves, including the 50-day moving average at 63.270. The path higher depends on breaking through these levels. However, there’s a risk if prices drop. Falling below the 60.588 Fibonacci level could pave the way to test the April low near 58.376, which previously stopped further declines. These levels are watched closely by traders, not because they are perfect but because others are monitoring them too. The self-fulfilling nature of technical levels makes them useful, even if they’re not foolproof. Looking at the bigger picture, oil pricing is influenced by more than just technical charts. Market participants have long recognized that factors like industrial demand, shipping activity, production output, and refinery usage play major roles — each currently clouded by uncertainty. Weekly inventory reports from API and EIA provide insight into potential surpluses or shortages, and even minor surprises in these reports can cause unexpected price shifts. What really moves prices is not just the data but how it compares to expectations. Production decisions are also vital, especially when OPEC and its allies, including Russia, adjust supply levels. These changes can catch short-term traders off guard if they haven’t hedged properly or adjusted to macro news. Practically, this means maintaining sharp risk parameters is key. The broader trading community must stay flexible, especially within current price ranges where trend confirmation is lacking. As the trading range tightens, larger moves can follow. It’s important to monitor volume alongside price action, keep an eye on SMA positioning across various time frames, and avoid over-analyzing daily changes. Oil trades do not occur in isolation; global growth factors, especially in major importing countries, can shift market sentiment suddenly. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Dow Jones Industrial Average drops 780 points during market session, struggles to recover
The Dow Jones Industrial Average faced a significant drop, losing 780 points and hitting 41,200 before bouncing back to 41,750. This decline was sparked by comments from US President Donald Trump about possible tariffs on Apple and European goods.
Trump proposed a 25% tax on Apple products and a 50% tariff on goods from Europe, mentioning that US-European trade talks were stalling. The White House later clarified that these thoughts were not official policy, but they still created market uncertainty.
