Germany’s IFO expectations index for May came in at 88.9, exceeding the expected 88. This indicates a positive shift in the German economy. At the same time, EUR/USD remains above 1.1300, despite a decline in business activity in the Eurozone’s private sector. Traders are now focused on upcoming US PMI data for further direction.

UK Market Outlook for GBP/USD

In the UK, GBP/USD is trading above 1.3400, as the S&P Global Composite PMI improved to 49.4 in May from 48.5 in April. All eyes are on the US PMI figures expected to be released soon. Gold has pulled back from a two-week high, moving to the lower end of its daily trading range. This drop isn’t driven by strong news, and the $3,300 level is key for bullish traders to watch. The upcoming US S&P Global PMI reports are expected to show little change. The Services PMI is likely to stay steady at 50.8, while the Manufacturing PMI might dip slightly to 50.1. Germany’s IFO expectations index of 88.9 for May, above the forecast of 88, signals a slight increase in sentiment among German businesses. This is the highest reading in months, suggesting a possible return of optimism, especially among firms expecting better conditions in the future. Although expectations can be more unpredictable than current assessments, they often precede changes in broader economic indicators. Dismissing these results would be unwise, especially after the challenges faced by Germany’s economy. Generally, any uptick in confidence in a strong economy could lead to reactions—or at least a reevaluation—across related assets. This sentiment might help explain why the euro is holding its ground against the dollar, despite weaker data from the Eurozone’s services and manufacturing sectors. EUR/USD staying above 1.1300 indicates that market participants may be looking beyond short-term struggles or downplaying potential changes in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, which are a major focus these days. We believe this resilience isn’t coincidental. It suggests that current positioning may already reflect a more subdued near-term European growth outlook, allowing for stable projections to justify keeping long positions—though not necessarily increasing them. Timing is crucial here.

UK Economic Momentum

In the UK, the situation is similar. The pound remains strong above 1.3400 after the country’s composite PMI rose from 48.5 to 49.4. While still below the 50 mark that indicates growth, this movement is encouraging. For those monitoring closely, even a small recovery like this can shift expectations about future actions by the Bank of England. More interestingly, the reaction in the FX market suggests investors are responding to the direction of change rather than the absolute figures, indicating a potential shift away from previous pessimism. Gold, however, has declined from recent highs, unable to maintain near the crucial $3,300 level that bulls were eyeing. The drop seems to lack significant news, suggesting technical factors or a natural fading of earlier momentum. Such setups often correct when levels don’t break through convincingly. With real yields steady, there’s little incentive for chasing higher gold prices right now. We are watching to see if demand reemerges near support levels; if not, there may still be downward movement. Now, looking toward the US, the next important data point is the S&P PMI for May. No major surprises are expected. The services component is predicted to stay at 50.8, while manufacturing may see a slight dip to 50.1. If these expectations hold true, it would indicate that growth is stable but not accelerating. The market remains sensitive to these forecasts, and any surprise—no matter how small—could lead to significant volatility, especially in rate-sensitive areas. Any deviation, particularly in the services category, could have greater implications than anticipated. For traders involved in derivatives linked to currencies, commodities, or interest rates, this landscape is tricky. Sentiment is shifting on fine margins—a small change in PMI can shift views significantly. We believe monitoring how implied volatility reacts right after the releases could offer clearer insights than just the numbers themselves. This means focusing not only on the headline figures but also on market reactions: who’s buying, who’s selling, and how the skew is changing. The coming sessions will likely clarify unresolved pressure points, especially as many major contracts remain lightly positioned. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 in May, up from 49.0 in April, beating the forecast of 49.3. On the other hand, the Services PMI fell to 48.9 from 50.1, missing the expected 50.3 and marking the lowest level in 16 months. The Eurozone PMI Composite also decreased, falling to 49.5 in May from 50.4 in April, against an expected 50.7. Despite these mixed PMI results, the EUR/USD remains above 1.1300, but is under some pressure. The Euro, used in 19 European Union countries, is the second most traded currency worldwide, with daily transactions exceeding $2.2 trillion in 2022. The EUR/USD is the most actively traded currency pair. The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt oversees Eurozone monetary policy, primarily aiming for price stability through interest rate adjustments. Higher rates often strengthen the Euro, while lower rates may weaken it. Economic indicators like GDP, PMI figures, and inflation rates can influence the Euro’s value. If inflation goes above the ECB’s 2% target, interest rate hikes could boost the Euro. The Trade Balance is also an important factor affecting currency value. Recent PMI readings tell us a clear story: different sectors in the Eurozone are moving apart. Manufacturing improved to 49.4, but it’s still in contraction (below 50). This suggests a slow rebound in production levels, hinting at slightly lower input costs. However, this small positive note is clouded by the decline in the services figure. A reading of 48.9, down from 50.1, indicates that the services sector is contracting for the first time in over a year. This is significant because services make up a large part of the Eurozone economy, and consecutive weak readings signal softer consumer demand and a potential slowdown in the labor market. The composite figure of 49.5 adds to this concern. While it’s not a crisis, it shows that the overall economy is cooling. Businesses may become more cautious, expecting tighter financial conditions or lower demand as summer approaches. The EUR/USD pairing has felt limited effects so far, staying just above 1.1300. This stability suggests that markets are hesitant to make drastic moves. For those trading derivatives, especially euro-based positions, be aware of the volatility that follows economic releases. The markets are anticipating some weakening in the Eurozone recovery, but the Services PMI miss might shift expectations about European Central Bank actions later this year. The ECB closely monitors inflation data, but with weaker services data, the focus may shift from price increases to broader economic health. If inflation stays above the 2% target amidst slowing output, the ECB may face tough decisions. Rate hikes could be harder to justify if service activity keeps declining. The mixed signals—manufacturing improving while services weaken—could increase uncertainty around the Euro. This situation may also influence expectations, not just based on Eurozone developments, but broader global events, including those in the U.S. Moving forward, it’s essential to keep an eye on upcoming PMI data and updated inflation figures, particularly regional core prints. These will help identify if the softness in services is due to internal demand issues or external trade slowdowns. Fortunately, liquidity in the euro pair remains strong thanks to its high trading volume. Instruments linked to EUR/USD will likely show predictable behavior regarding short-term spreads, but medium-term trends could change based on unexpected macroeconomic events. When PMI trends diverge, so can policy speculation. Traders should consider not only how the ECB might respond, but also how fixed income prices might shift with changing balance sheet expectations. The Trade Balance, often overlooked, may regain significance if exports from the Eurozone struggle against international competition due to domestic costs. In the coming weeks, watch for ECB comments that may confirm or challenge what the markets expect. Traders in options and futures need to evaluate their exposure to potential macro-driven changes influenced by both data releases and shifts in central bank perspectives. We may be entering a phase where maintaining directional confidence is challenging without strong cross-market support. This means observing not just currency pair movements but also bond trends, cross-currency swaps, and short-term rate futures. Basic signals like PMI alone often don’t tell the whole picture. However, when combined with inflation data, central bank minutes, and global attitudes towards risk, they can create a macro environment that allows for effective derivative positioning—if timed correctly.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The Eurozone’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.4 in May, missing the expected 49.3. This signals a decline in business activity in the private sector. The EUR/USD remains above 1.1300, but the weak PMI data suggests that the Euro may not gain much. On the other hand, the UK’s S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 49.4 in May from 48.5 in April.

Gold Prices Update

Gold prices are pulling back from their recent peaks, showing a slow decline. This movement doesn’t seem driven by any new data and is likely to continue moderately due to various supportive factors. Chainlink’s price rose nearly 2%, boosted by increased whale activity and capital flow. Since February, large holders have bought up 25 million LINK tokens. Retail buyers are becoming more active amid economic risks and earnings concerns, while institutional investors are being cautious. Ongoing worries about trade tensions, U.S. debt, and the careful approach of the Federal Reserve are affecting markets.

Forex Trading Strategies

For those looking to trade EUR/USD, several brokers offer competitive spreads, fast execution, and strong platforms, suitable for both beginners and experienced traders in the Forex market. The Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI for May recorded at 48.4, falling short of expectations. Since this figure is below 50, it shows that factory activity in the region is contracting. Traders with euro-denominated contracts should check forward-looking indicators to see if this decline will continue into the summer. Adjustments to speculative positions on EUR/USD are recommended since such underperformance can shake confidence among businesses and investors. Even though the FX market keeps the EUR/USD pair above 1.1300, the recent PMI data suggests limited potential for further gains. Any upward movement seems restricted unless there are changes in fiscal policy or an increase in regional production. The euro’s strength may be tested if upcoming figures, like retail sales or industrial production, turn out disappointing. In contrast, the UK offers slightly better news with a PMI of 49.4 in May. While it’s still below 50, indicating mild contraction, it’s an improvement from the previous month. This type of less-negative data often gives a slight boost to sterling-based contracts, especially when compared to weaker Eurozone data. Gold is also adjusting after its recent rise. This pullback is not prompted by any new information; it resembles a typical correction after a considerable rally. We are observing technical support levels for signs of fresh long positions. Given the ongoing uncertainty around monetary policy and mixed real yields, this gradual decline in gold prices may continue. Attention is turning to Chainlink, where large token holders, perceived as more knowledgeable investors, have been quietly increasing their positions since early this year. This accumulation has stabilized the price, and the recent 2% increase reflects ongoing interest. While modest, this steady action could pave the way for greater volatility in the future as liquidity increases or utility activity rises. In the broader market, there’s a noticeable rise in retail activity. Traders seem more willing to engage despite evident earnings risks and unresolved macro threats like trade tensions and the U.S. fiscal outlook. In contrast, institutional flows have been more cautious. This difference is revealing; when larger players pull back, it often indicates that short-term returns may struggle until risks improve or Fed communication changes. Execution is also important. With competitive spreads and faster execution on platforms, now is a good time to assess execution efficiency. Whether pursuing directional strategies or hedging, modern tools offer tighter control over positions. Those already exposed to FX or digital assets should evaluate the strength of their entry and exit points as market volatility fluctuates. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

In May, Germany’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI was 48.8, slightly lower than the expected 48.9. This small difference shows a slight dip in manufacturing performance during this time. The PMI is an important measure of the health of Germany’s manufacturing sector. A PMI below 50 usually indicates a decline, while a figure above 50 suggests growth.

Challenges in Manufacturing

The PMI result hints at challenges or a slowdown in the manufacturing industry. It suggests that production levels or business conditions might be worse than expected. Such metrics are closely watched to understand economic trends and to inform future business or policy decisions. Even though the difference is small, it still reflects the current state of the sector. Even though May’s reading was just 0.1 below the forecast, it’s significant when considered in context. The 48.8 score keeps Germany’s manufacturing PMI below the 50 mark for another month, reinforcing the idea that the sector is still in decline. While not a drastic change, consistently low numbers indicate that activity remains sluggish, despite hopes for a rebound.

Investor Sentiment and Market Impacts

For traders in interest-sensitive assets or short-term index products, this suggests that investor sentiment toward the eurozone’s manufacturing base is weak. Although the contraction isn’t worsening quickly, it also isn’t improving, which becomes increasingly important over time. We should also consider how central banks interpret these numbers. A small miss usually doesn’t change monetary policy views on its own, but repeated underperformance—even if slight—can strengthen dovish expectations or delay any changes in tone from officials. Combined with low inflation readings and upcoming consumer sentiment reports, this could lead to cautious positioning ahead of central bank meetings. Traders with bets on a recovery in European manufacturing may need to reduce their positions or tighten risk controls, as indicators aren’t giving a strong basis for confidence. For options strategies, implied volatility could provide more opportunities than directional bets in this current climate. Looking at the situation more closely, the manufacturing sector’s ongoing difficulty crossing the 50 threshold decreases confidence in short-term domestic demand growth from industrial producers. While export-focused companies have some flexibility, the domestic downturn affects purchasing and hiring, impacting GDP more broadly. We should also watch for supply chain remarks in the July PMI reports. Any rise in delivery times or price pressures amid declining output could indicate deeper issues rather than just temporary weakness. This adds another layer of complexity for traders, especially when analyzing long-term interest rate futures. Timing market entries is crucial. With German output soft but not collapsing, traders looking for direction might find more clarity from incoming orders or Q2 corporate earnings than from the overall PMI numbers. Although the PMI slipped slightly below expectations, its continued position below 50 suggests stagnation rather than volatility. This slower pace can lead to dullness in some derivatives markets unless triggered by unexpected events or policy changes. Overall, the slight miss is less a one-time occurrence and more of a sign of ongoing macro conditions, such as low growth, shaky momentum, and cautious investor sentiment. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to provide the most reliable service to our clients, there will be maintenance this weekend.

Maintenance Details:

Please note that the following aspects might be affected during the maintenance:
1. The price quote and trading management will be temporarily disabled during the maintenance. You will not be able to open new positions, close open positions, or make any adjustments to the trades.
2. There might be a gap between the original price and the price after maintenance. The gaps between Pending Orders, Stop Loss, and Take Profit will be filled at the market price once the maintenance is completed. It is suggested that you manage the account properly.

The above data is for reference only. Please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for the specific maintenance completion and marketing opening time.

Thank you for your patience and understanding about this important initiative.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is slightly up against the US Dollar (USD) but has pulled back from earlier gains. This comes after the release of Australia’s initial S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. In May, Australia’s Manufacturing PMI stayed at 51.7. However, the Services PMI dropped from 51.0 to 50.5, and the Composite PMI fell from 51.0 to 50.6. The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to handle inflation and indicated they might take further action if needed.

US Dollar Index Performance

The US Dollar Index has declined for the fourth consecutive session and is trading around 99.50. Investors are looking ahead to the S&P Global US PMI data, expecting stable growth in business activity for May. There are ongoing developments in US politics and the economy. A tax-cut bill from President Trump is waiting for a House vote, amid economic concerns raised by the Cleveland and San Francisco Fed Presidents. The Atlanta Fed President warned about issues with trade logistics. Moody’s recently downgraded the US credit rating, predicting federal debt to rise by 2035. US economic indicators show inflation easing, with both CPI and PPI revealing reduced price pressures. This has led to hopes for interest rate cuts in 2025. Weak Retail Sales numbers have heightened worries about a prolonged economic slowdown. China criticized the US’s chip export measures, labeling them protectionist. The People’s Bank of China lowered Loan Prime Rates to support the market. Meanwhile, in Australia, the Labor Party regained power after the coalition collapsed.

Australian Dollar Against Other Currencies

The AUD/USD pair is currently around 0.6440, with support from technical indicators positioned above important moving averages. Resistance levels are seen at 0.6515 and 0.6687, while support is located at 0.6427 and 0.6367. A drop below these levels could challenge the March 2020 low of 0.5914. Against other currencies, the AUD performed best against the New Zealand Dollar, while its performance was mixed against the USD, EUR, and CAD. The S&P Global Composite PMI data, based on surveys of executives, serves as an indicator of US private business activity. Traders are keenly awaiting upcoming data to understand market trends. Today’s market shows the Australian Dollar holding on to a small portion of earlier gains against the US Dollar after the PMI figures. The Manufacturing sector has remained steady, but Services and Composite numbers have slightly decreased. These modest changes suggest a slight loss of momentum in Australia’s economy, which might be concerning for those investing in growth-sensitive assets. The Reserve Bank’s decision to cut the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points reflects their concerns about ongoing price pressures. Their message indicates that further reductions could happen if inflation remains a problem. For investors, this introduces the chance of further support for risk assets, while also raising the risk of a deeper economic slowdown if demand falls too quickly. On the other hand, the US Dollar is under pressure, having dropped for a fourth session. The Dollar Index dipping towards 99.50 shows a decreasing appetite for safe-haven assets due to softer inflation data. Lower Consumer and Producer Price Index figures suggest easing cost pressures, which supports speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut rates in 2025. The focus now shifts to upcoming US PMI numbers. If these figures show steady output from private companies, it could alleviate fears of contraction but also challenge expectations for rate cuts. Adjustments may be needed based on any positive surprises that could strengthen the Dollar and alter positioning, especially for those with a short USD bias. In Washington, discussions around former President Trump’s tax policies continue, adding uncertainty to the near-term outlook. Concerns have been raised by multiple Federal Reserve branch executives about ongoing economic challenges, particularly from the Cleveland and San Francisco Fed Presidents. The Atlanta Fed President has pointed out disruptions in transport channels. These issues contribute to uncertainty and may increase market volatility. Additionally, structural debt concerns remain, with Moody’s downgrade of US sovereign credit highlighting long-term fiscal risks. In Asia, tensions have escalated again. Beijing has accused Washington of limiting technological competition through chip export controls, keeping traders on edge in tech-related sectors. The People’s Bank of China has reduced its Loan Prime Rates to support domestic credit markets, providing relief to struggling areas of the economy. This introduces another loose policy element into the macro mix, affecting cross-border flows. Back in Australia, political shifts have brought the Labor Party back to power after a coalition collapse, adding another layer of uncertainty around fiscal priorities and regulations. While this is not currently moving markets, it could influence sentiment depending on future policy signals. Currently, the AUD/USD trades near 0.6440, supported by momentum indicators and remaining above short-term moving averages. Resistance is fairly close at 0.6515 and extends to 0.6687. A sustained dip below minor support levels at 0.6427 or 0.6367 could lead to prices not seen since early 2020. Heightened global risk aversion could increase this pressure quickly. Of note with other currencies, the Aussie has strengthened most notably against the New Zealand Dollar, while its performance has been mixed against the USD, EUR, and CAD. Differences in policy directions, especially between central banks, may influence price action in the upcoming weeks. Observing forthcoming releases, particularly those related to services and labor markets, is crucial, as these may provide a clearer outlook than manufacturing data. Moving forward, timing and execution will be key. Liquidity could thin out before significant macroeconomic updates, raising the likelihood of sharp intraday movements. While sentiment currently favors softer US data supporting the carry trade, this support relies on mild inflation and labor figures. Our focus is clear—monitor rates, follow policy discussions, and stay adaptable as technical levels come into play. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Investment Risks in Open Markets

The markets and instruments mentioned here are for information only; no recommendations are being made. It’s crucial to do your research before making any investment decisions. Be aware that investing in open markets comes with risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. As we approach the expiration date on May 22, we may see increased volatility around key price levels, especially in major currency pairs where large options are about to expire. These levels can act like magnets, drawing spot prices closer as positions are adjusted. In the case of EUR/USD, there is a significant interest of 2.1 billion euros at the 1.1175 level, which is much larger than the usual daily expirations. Such high volume can create a gravitational pull on prices if they trade near this level, especially when traders are adjusting their risks. If the price moves toward 1.12, we could see additional resistance or support depending on market flows. The higher level at 1.1400 has a 751 million euro interest as well, but it has less impact unless strong price movements occur leading into the expiration.

Recognizing Positioning Pressure

Sterling traders should keep an eye on the 778 million GBP set to expire at 1.3260. This level is slightly above current market prices, suggesting that a slight upward movement may happen, especially in a bullish market. The same logic applies to the yen market. Although the 601 million USD at 143.50 isn’t overly significant, it can still provide resistance or support if prices move up. The situation with USD/CHF looks different. The 598 million around 0.8525 could offer minor technical resistance, but it doesn’t have the volume needed to be a strong attractor. It’s worth considering, especially on days with low liquidity. For AUD/USD, while the volumes of 204 million and 286 million AUD are lower compared to other pairs, the range between 0.6100 and 0.6700 is important. The lower end may serve as a support level during risk-off periods, while reaching the higher level of 0.6700 will likely require major economic changes. That upper level is currently out of reach without a significant market impulse. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

**Gold Prices and Global Market Influences** Gold prices in Pakistan rose on Thursday to 30,269.47 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up from 30,073.52 PKR on Wednesday. The price per tola increased to 353,058.20 PKR from 350,771.70 PKR. The US House of Representatives is advancing President Trump’s tax and spending bill, which could add $3 trillion to $5 trillion to the national debt. Recent treasury bond auctions showed low demand, raising concerns about the growing US budget deficit. Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating, causing the US Dollar to weaken. This contributed to higher gold prices. Global tensions, including US-China trade relations and ongoing conflicts, increased demand for gold. Central banks are significant buyers of gold as they aim to strengthen their economies. In 2022, they added 1,136 tonnes of gold, worth around $70 billion, to their reserves. Gold prices are influenced by geopolitical events, currency values, and interest rates, since gold is priced in US Dollars. Changes in the Dollar can inversely impact gold prices. **Impact of Market Instability on Gold Prices** The recent rise in gold prices—from 30,073.52 PKR to 30,269.47 PKR per gram and nearly 2,300 PKR per tola—reflects overall global market trends rather than issues specific to Pakistan. This trend suggests a deeper story; as gold rises, the US Dollar weakens, highlighting global economic factors at play. The tax and spending bill advancing in the House has raised concerns, as it may increase US debt by up to $5 trillion. This, along with poor demand in treasury bond auctions, has made the market more cautious. Bond traders are reacting to the growing debt and uncertain fiscal policies, leading to a reevaluation of their US-backed asset investments. Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating reinforces this caution. Such downgrades signal that fiscal discipline is lacking, which decreases the appeal of Dollar-denominated assets and contributes to the Dollar’s decline. When the Dollar weakens, gold tends to increase, which is a pattern traders consistently watch. Geopolitical tensions also continue to rise. While there are signs of cooperation between the US and China, dependable stability remains elusive, and other conflicts persist. This uncertainty encourages increased gold buying, motivated not just by speculative reasons but also for protection. Both retail investors and central banks are driving this demand. Central banks, in particular, have made significant moves. Adding 1,136 tonnes of gold in one year indicates a strategy to guard against currency risk and inflation. Institutions are responding to the same economic indicators as traders—credit quality, fiscal policy, and political stability—by accumulating gold for the long term. So, where do we stand? With bonds losing appeal and the Dollar facing potential further weakening, gold appears to be a wise choice—not as a sign of excitement but as a safe haven. This situation prompts options traders to monitor implied volatility levels on metals and adjust strike positions, especially for US-denominated assets. Premiums might shift due to macro hedging efforts, especially if central banks remain active. The yield curve is also important to consider. An inverted yield curve paired with a weakening Dollar makes precious metals attractive for rate-sensitive investments. Keep an eye on growing open interest near critical resistance levels in gold; a price increase without solid support could indicate instability instead of ongoing strength. In conclusion, these events are interconnected and present a clear narrative regarding US fiscal policy and global reactions to instability. The responses in the gold market are insightful, and adjusting derivative strategies will be necessary to navigate conditions that are unlikely to change in the short term. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

New Zealand’s Budget predicts a deficit of NZ$-14.74 billion for 2024/25 and NZ$-15.60 billion for 2025/26. Net debt is expected to be 42.7% of GDP in 2024/25, with a projected cash balance deficit of NZ$-9.99 billion. For 2024/25, GDP is estimated to drop by 0.8%, but a recovery is expected in 2025/26 and 2026/27, with growth rates of 2.9% and 3.0% respectively. Inflation is projected to stay within the 1% to 3% target band for the next five years.

Currency Reaction

The New Zealand Dollar has barely reacted to the budget news, trading 0.25% lower at around 0.5925. The government does not expect to see an operating balance surplus in the next five fiscal years, and trade tariffs remain influential on how quickly the economy can recover. Although the deficit figures may seem alarming—especially with a deeper deficit forecast for 2025/26—the government is prioritizing fiscal support over spending cuts. The projected 0.8% GDP contraction next year reflects this broader borrowing strategy which favors economic stimulus. Despite these challenges, core inflation remains steady. The forecast keeps inflation within the 1% to 3% band, indicating that price stability is not currently at risk. This allows monetary policy to stay stable without needing an immediate response. As the government increases bond issuance, funding costs may rise, but the Reserve Bank doesn’t need to react aggressively right away. The currency’s slight dip suggests that the market was prepared for these projections. The Kiwi dropped only 0.25%, indicating that investors are becoming more accustomed to deficit announcements when inflation and growth seem stable. This indicates a calm response regarding interest rates and currency fluctuations.

Trade and Interest Rates

The balance of risks largely depends on timing. While the multi-year recovery looks promising from 2025 onward, the current economic downturn will impact interest rates. Expect the yield curve to remain relatively flat over the next two quarters, especially if international factors remain subdued. It’s essential to analyze future expectations. Export tariffs continue to impede predicted trade growth, which adds uncertainty to the recovery but is less affected by domestic policies. Positions that consider a slow or uneven improvement in trade balances may perform better than fixed growth expectations. Short-term interest rate trades may stay stable unless the Reserve Bank changes its approach sooner than anticipated. However, for longer-term rates, any increase in bond issuance could widen spreads, especially during periods of weaker GDP. We are focusing on how interest rates in New Zealand compare to global benchmarks, noting how the budget plan aligns with monetary policy. For those trading volatility, a stable inflation outlook suggests limited upward movement in break-evens and inflation swaps in the short to medium term. However, with growing deficits and borrowing needs, concerns about sovereign credit can arise intermittently. Option pricing might remain low, but could rise if debt issuance outpaces market absorption. Robertson’s budget figures did not significantly impact the Kiwi, but the ongoing debt dynamics and changing long-term growth rates create opportunities—especially as policy differences emerge. Be cautious with long Kiwi positions during global rate changes or demand shocks. The real challenge will be watching whether the anticipated bounce in 2025/26 overcomes initial hurdles or if downward revisions threaten the projected 3% growth targets. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].