AUD/USD rose 0.17% to around 0.7085 early Monday in the European session, as the Australian Dollar outperformed other major currencies. Markets were waiting for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes from its February meeting, due Tuesday. At that meeting, the RBA raised its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%. It also left the door open to more rate hikes if inflation risks stayed high. The US Dollar was mostly steady. Expectations for a more cautious Federal Reserve in March and April remained in place. The US Dollar Index (DXY) ticked up to about 96.95. US inflation continued to cool. Headline Consumer Price Index inflation fell to 2.4% year-on-year in January, down from 2.7% in December. On the daily chart, AUD/USD held near 0.7085, while the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) rose to 0.6982. The RSI was 66, showing bullish momentum without signaling overbought conditions. A rising trendline from 0.6669 supported the pair near 0.6997. A break below that line could shift focus back to the 20-day EMA as the next support level. We remember the optimism in early 2025, when the pair pushed toward 0.7100. Back then, the RBA had just lifted its cash rate to 3.85% and sounded open to more tightening. That view was helped by falling US inflation, which dropped to 2.4% year-on-year and hinted at a less aggressive Fed. Since then, the picture has flipped, creating a different setup for traders. The RBA has softened its tone as domestic demand slowed. The cash rate is now 4.10% after a period of holding steady. Meanwhile, US inflation stayed higher than expected last year, remaining above 3%. That forced the Fed to keep its “higher for longer” stance. This policy gap has pulled AUD/USD down to around 0.6550, well below the bullish trend seen in early 2025. Old support near 0.7000 is now key resistance. Over the next few weeks, traders may want to focus on range-trading strategies or position for more downside. One approach is to buy put options to hedge against a further decline, especially with major US data releases coming up. Another is to sell out-of-the-money call spreads to collect premium, based on the view that the pair may struggle to retake its 2025 highs. Central bank messaging remains crucial, as any surprise shift could quickly change the outlook.

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AUD/JPY climbed back above the mid-108.00s in Asian trading on Monday. This ended a four-day decline after the pair hit a nearly two-week low on Friday. The rebound followed weaker Japanese data, which pressured the Yen. Japan’s Cabinet Office reported that GDP rose 0.1% in Q4 2025, after a 0.7% drop in the prior quarter. The figure missed forecasts and lowered expectations for an early Bank of Japan rate hike. That, in turn, weakened the JPY. The Australian Dollar stayed supported after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept a hawkish tone. The RBA Governor said rates could rise again if inflation becomes entrenched. An RBA official added that inflation is likely to stay above the 2%–3% target for some time, and that the labour market has stabilised. Hopes for more Chinese fiscal and monetary support also lifted demand for the AUD. However, gains in AUD/JPY may be limited by talk of possible Japanese action to curb JPY weakness, and by expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike later this year. We see a clear policy divide between Australia and Japan. That makes AUD/JPY attractive. Japan’s weak 0.1% GDP growth in Q4 2025 has pushed back expectations for any near-term BOJ hike. This makes holding the higher-yielding Aussie versus the Yen more appealing. The RBA is also keeping a firm stance. Q4 inflation last year came in at 3.8%, still well above the target band. This supports the Aussie. For traders, it strengthens the case for buying AUD/JPY call options to benefit from a potential rise, while limiting downside risk. Japan’s economy is soft, but core inflation is still 2.5%. That keeps the chance of a BOJ hike later this year alive. At the same time, hopes for Chinese support—especially after China’s central bank cut a key lending rate last month—are giving the Australian dollar another boost. Overall, this backdrop points to further gains, though the path may be choppy. We also need to watch for possible intervention from Japanese authorities to support the Yen. They used this approach in 2022 when USD/JPY broke key levels. With AUD/JPY now above 108.00, the pair is moving into a zone that may worry officials. Levels near 110 could trigger a response. For that reason, using options to define risk, or placing tight stop-losses on futures positions, looks prudent in the weeks ahead.

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Gold prices in Saudi Arabia fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Gold was priced at SAR 600.09 per gram, down from SAR 606.75 on Friday. Gold also dropped to SAR 6,999.29 per tola, from SAR 7,077.07 per tola on Friday. Other quoted prices were SAR 6,000.87 for 10 grams and SAR 18,664.83 per troy ounce.

Saudi Gold Price Reference Notes

FXStreet calculates Saudi gold prices by converting global prices into SAR using the USD/SAR exchange rate and local weight units. Prices are updated daily at the time of publication and are for reference only, as local rates may differ slightly. Gold is used as a store of value and as a way to exchange money. People often buy it during market stress. It is also used to protect against inflation and a weaker currency. Central banks hold the most gold as part of their reserves. They use it to diversify and reduce risk. In 2022, they added 1,136 tonnes (about $70 billion), the highest yearly total on record. China, India, and Turkey led much of that buying. Gold often moves in the opposite direction to the US Dollar and US Treasuries. It can also move against risk assets like stocks. Prices can change due to geopolitical events, recession concerns, interest rates, and shifts in the Dollar.

Macro Drivers For Traders

Looking back at last year, we saw small dips, like in early 2025 when gold briefly fell to around SAR 600 per gram. These moves did not last long. For traders today, the bigger issue is the wider economic backdrop, not small day-to-day changes from a year ago. Interest rates matter most because gold does not pay interest. Inflation has cooled to 2.5% in the latest CPI report. Futures markets are now pricing in a better than 70% chance of a US rate cut by summer. If rates fall, gold can look more attractive than interest-paying assets. This view also shows up in currency markets, which strongly affect gold. The US Dollar Index (DXY) often moves opposite to gold and has already fallen about 3% since the start of the year. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies, which can increase demand. Central bank buying still provides strong support for prices. Following the trend from 2022 and 2023, central banks around the world added more than 1,037 tonnes to their reserves in 2025. This points to an ongoing shift toward gold during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. Steady buying like this can help put a floor under the market. For derivatives traders, this backdrop may favor strategies that benefit from rising prices. Buying call options can capture upside while keeping risk defined, especially as volatility increases. Another approach is selling cash-secured puts during pullbacks to earn income, with the goal of buying gold at a lower price if the puts are assigned. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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GBP/USD began the week in Asia trading in a tight range just below the mid-1.3600s. Trading was quiet as markets waited for key UK and US data. The UK jobs report is due on Tuesday, followed by CPI inflation on Wednesday. Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point Bank of England rate cut in March, and these releases could shift that view.

Key Data In Focus

In the US, the Federal Open Market Committee minutes are due on Wednesday. Traders will look for clues about the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut path, which could move the US Dollar and GBP/USD. Last week, GBP/USD bounced from 10-day lows at 1.3509 and rose early in the week. It later faced selling near 1.3700, with a five-day high around 1.3710. The rise came as the US Dollar weakened, even after a stronger-than-expected January Nonfarm Payrolls report. The Dollar also fell as USD/JPY dropped, with the Japanese Yen gaining after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s snap election win and talk of possible FX intervention. GBP/USD is now moving sideways in a narrow band around 1.2750 at the start of the week. This range trading signals uncertainty ahead of major UK and US releases. Traders should stay cautious, as a long consolidation can lead to a sharp breakout.

Risk Management And Strategy

The focus is on Tuesday’s UK jobs report and Wednesday’s CPI data. UK inflation recently eased to 2.9% in January 2026, and markets now price a 45% chance of a BoE rate cut in May. That makes this week’s data especially important. The uncertainty is also lifting short-term implied volatility, which may make options strategies like straddles attractive for traders expecting a large move in either direction. In the US, Wednesday’s FOMC minutes will be studied for signals on the Fed’s rate-cut timing. A stronger January 2026 jobs report, showing 215,000 jobs added, has reduced expectations of an early cut and helped support the US Dollar. If the minutes sound hawkish, GBP/USD gains may be limited, and resistance near 1.2800 could hold. This setup is similar to early 2025, when the pair struggled to break above resistance at 1.3700. At that time, the market was also split between BoE cut expectations and uncertainty about Fed policy. That consolidation later broke lower after key data was released. With event risk elevated, traders may want to use derivatives to control risk. Put options can hedge long positions if UK inflation prints below expectations. If you expect a bullish breakout on strong UK data, a bull call spread can give upside exposure while limiting the premium paid. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold prices in the Philippines fell on Monday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at PHP 9,274.39 per gram, down from PHP 9,378.88 on Friday. Gold also slipped to PHP 108,174.30 per tola from PHP 109,393.40 on Friday. The listed reference prices were PHP 92,747.66 for 10 grams and PHP 288,475.40 per troy ounce. FXStreet calculates local gold prices by converting international prices using the USD/PHP exchange rate and local measurement units. Prices are updated daily using market rates at the time of publication, and local rates may vary slightly. Central banks hold the largest gold reserves. World Gold Council data shows central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion in 2022, the biggest annual purchase since records began. Gold often moves in the opposite direction of the US Dollar and US Treasuries. It can also move against risk assets. Its price can change with geopolitical events, recession worries, interest rates, and swings in the US Dollar because gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). This small dip in gold is less important than the bigger economic trend. The main drivers matter more, especially shifting expectations for US interest rates through the rest of 2026. The slight drop is a good time to step back and review the forces shaping the market. We think the US Federal Reserve is close to the end of its tightening cycle, which has been underway since 2024. Inflation data for January 2026 showed core inflation finally cooling. The Consumer Price Index fell to a two-year low of 2.5%. This points to possible rate cuts in the second half of the year. If that happens, the US dollar could weaken and gold prices could rise. With that in mind, we should consider buying call options on gold futures that expire in late 2026. This gives upside exposure while capping the initial risk at the premium paid. A move above the key $2,450 per ounce level—a resistance area seen in late 2025—looks more likely if the Fed clearly shifts to a more dovish stance. Central bank buying also continues to support the market. Central banks bought a record 1,136 tonnes in 2022, and final 2025 figures showed another 950 tonnes added to official reserves. This steady demand suggests that large price declines may attract buyers. That could make selling out-of-the-money put options appealing as a way to collect premium. Geopolitical tensions are also helping to support prices. Uncertainty has increased again around global shipping routes and upcoming elections in several major economies. During the 2024 global trade disputes, gold jumped as a key safe-haven asset. Because these risks remain, keeping some exposure to gold volatility through strategies like straddles could pay off. Gold does not pay interest, so it tends to look better when interest rates fall. The high-rate environment in 2025 limited gold’s upside. Now, a shift in monetary policy is the main catalyst to watch. We should be ready to use futures to build a core long position in the coming weeks, in anticipation of that change.

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Gold prices in the United Arab Emirates fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Gold was priced at AED 587.94 per gram, down from AED 594.28 on Friday. Gold dropped to AED 6,858.50 per tola, from AED 6,931.57 per tola on Friday. Other listed prices were AED 5,877.33 for 10 grams and AED 18,287.15 per troy ounce. FXStreet calculates local gold prices by converting international prices using the USD/AED rate and local units. Prices are updated daily at the time of publication and are for reference only, as local rates may vary slightly. Central banks were reported to be the largest gold holders. The World Gold Council said central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion in 2022. This was the highest annual total since records began. Gold prices can change for many reasons, including geopolitical tensions, recession worries, interest rates, and moves in the US Dollar. Gold is often said to move in the opposite direction of the US Dollar and US Treasuries. It can also move against risk assets such as equities. The small drop to AED 587.94 per gram is likely short-term noise, not a shift in the main trend. The bigger driver is the broader economic backdrop, especially the move toward lower interest rates by major central banks that started in late 2024. Lower rates can make a non-yielding asset like gold more attractive for institutional investors. The US Dollar’s relative weakness in early 2026 is also supporting gold. This is a change from the strong dollar seen through much of 2023 and 2024. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies, which often lifts demand. This relationship will be important to watch in the weeks ahead. Central bank buying remains a major support for the market and helps create a price floor. Central banks added more than 1,000 tonnes in both 2022 and 2023, and data shows strong buying from emerging economies continued through 2025. This steady demand suggests a long-term strategy to reduce reliance on other reserve assets. Geopolitical risks and concerns about a global slowdown are also pushing investors toward safe-haven assets. After last year’s market volatility, many investors are focused on protecting capital. Gold’s track record in uncertain periods keeps it high on the list. For derivatives traders, these conditions suggest that dips may offer buying opportunities. Call options can be a practical way to gain upside exposure if prices move back toward earlier highs. This strategy can capture gains while limiting downside risk to the premium paid.

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EUR/USD slipped slightly in Asian trading on Monday, trading near 1.1870. The 14-day RSI is 56. It remains above 50 after falling back from overbought territory. On the daily chart, the pair is still trading above the nine-day EMA, which is trending higher. The nine-day EMA is also above the rising 50-day EMA. The nine-day EMA level is 1.1861.

Key Technical Levels

If price stays above 1.1861, EUR/USD could climb toward 1.2082, the highest level since June 2021. A move below the nine-day EMA could pull the pair down toward the 50-day EMA at 1.1769. Below that, the next support is 1.1578, the two-month low set on 19 January. The technical analysis was produced with the help of an AI tool. EUR/USD is testing an important support area at the nine-day EMA near 1.1861. With the RSI holding above 50, momentum is still positive, which suggests any pullbacks may be limited. This level is a key decision point for strategies in the weeks ahead.

Options Strategy Considerations

Given this setup, we can consider buying call options with a strike price below the 1.2082 target, as long as EUR/USD holds above 1.1861 on a daily closing basis. This view is supported by recent Eurozone data showing January headline inflation holding at 2.9%. That has led to more hawkish comments from ECB officials. Markets are now pricing in a higher chance that the ECB will cut rates later than the US Federal Reserve. However, if we get a clear break and daily close below 1.1861, we should be ready to change our bias quickly. In that case, buying put options targeting the 50-day EMA at 1.1769 could be a sensible way to hedge or position for further downside. A break of short-term support may signal a deeper correction. This setup looks similar to the price action seen in Q4 2025, when a consolidation above moving averages was followed by a strong move. At the same time, last week’s US retail sales showed a mild slowdown, which may point to a softer dollar versus the euro. For that reason, 1.1861 remains the main trigger to watch for the next derivatives trade. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold prices in Pakistan fell on Monday, based on data compiled by FXStreet. Gold was priced at PKR 44,706.87 per gram, down from PKR 45,229.91 on Friday. Gold also dropped to PKR 521,452.10 per tola, from PKR 527,552.80 on Friday. Other listed prices were PKR 447,068.60 for 10 grams and PKR 1,390,544.00 per troy ounce.

Local Gold Price Snapshot

FXStreet converts global gold prices into Pakistani Rupees using the USD/PKR exchange rate and local units of measure. Prices are updated daily at the time of publication and are for reference only. Local market rates may vary slightly. Central banks hold the world’s largest gold reserves. According to the World Gold Council, they added 1,136 tonnes—worth about $70 billion—in 2022. This was the highest yearly total since records began. China, India, and Turkey were among the countries that increased their reserves. Gold often moves in the opposite direction to the US Dollar and US Treasuries. It can also move against risk assets. Prices can change with interest rates, geopolitical events, and recession concerns. Gold is priced in US dollars (XAU/USD). We are seeing small day-to-day moves, like the recent dip in Pakistan. These changes matter less to our overall plan. Our main focus is the weaker US Dollar, which has been trading in a tight range as markets wait for clearer signals on monetary policy. January 2026 inflation data came in slightly below expectations at 2.8%, adding more pressure on the dollar.

Strategy And Market Outlook

Expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and other major central banks over the next quarter remain the key driver for gold. Since gold does not pay interest, it tends to look more attractive when bond yields are expected to fall. We saw this pattern clearly during the rate-hike pauses in 2025. In the past, gold also rose strongly after policy turned: in the six months after the Fed began cutting rates in 2019, gold rallied by more than 15%. We are watching for a similar setup. We also believe ongoing central bank buying is helping to support prices. Central banks bought more than 800 tonnes in 2025, continuing the strong demand seen earlier in the decade. Steady purchases from large buyers such as China and India can help limit downside moves and reduce the risk of a long sell-off. Global stock markets also look stretched after a strong start to the year. Holding gold can help hedge a portfolio if equities pull back. Geopolitical risks remain in the background, and any major escalation could push investors toward safe-haven assets like gold. For that reason, we see this as a good time to consider long exposure as portfolio insurance. Overall, this backdrop suggests that dips may be buying opportunities. Options markets also show low implied volatility, which can make long-dated call options a useful way to gain upside exposure in the weeks ahead. This approach can position for a rally tied to changing monetary policy, while keeping risk defined. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold prices in India fell on Monday, based on FXStreet-compiled data. Gold was priced at INR 14,508.73 per gram, down from INR 14,676.50 on Friday. Gold also dropped to INR 169,228.20 per tola from INR 171,183.80 per tola on Friday. Other listed prices were INR 145,088.70 for 10 grams and INR 451,272.40 per troy ounce. FXStreet calculates Indian gold prices by converting international prices using USD/INR and local units. Rates are updated daily at the time of publication and are for reference only, since local prices may differ. Central banks hold more gold than any other group. World Gold Council data says central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion in 2022. That was the highest annual total on record. Gold often moves in the opposite direction of the US Dollar and US Treasury yields. It can also move against risk assets like stocks. Key drivers include geopolitics, recession fears, interest rates, and the strength of the US Dollar, since gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). Gold is pulling back, and this looks tied to recent US Dollar strength. The dollar index is up more than 1.5% over the past two weeks after a strong US jobs report for January 2026. This could be a tactical moment for derivatives traders as they plan their next move. Prices are also under pressure from changing interest rate expectations. Markets are now reducing bets on a US Federal Reserve rate cut in the first half of the year. Higher rates usually hurt gold because it pays no yield, which can make long futures positions riskier in the near term. Still, there is ongoing support from central banks. They kept buying heavily through 2025, adding more than 1,000 tonnes to global reserves. This demand can help put a floor under prices. Because of that, put options—or bets on a big drop—should be used with care. Risk-on sentiment is also weighing on safe-haven demand. Global stock markets did well in January, which reduces interest in assets like gold. This pattern makes sense, but a sudden geopolitical shock could flip it quickly. Traders may want to use derivatives to hedge against that kind of surprise. In India, the Rupee has been fairly steady against the dollar, so local prices have followed the global decline closely. With short-term pressure but long-term support, traders may look to options strategies that aim to benefit from volatility. These strategies can profit from a big move without needing to pick a direction in the weeks ahead.

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Japan’s industrial production rose 2.6% year on year in December. This was unchanged from the previous reading. The data shows that annual output growth stayed at 2.6% at the end of the year. This update did not include a month-on-month figure. With Japan’s industrial production for December 2025 stuck at 2.6% growth, the momentum seen earlier in 2025 may be weakening. The lack of improvement suggests Japanese equities could face a near-term ceiling. We should review any overly bullish positions on the Nikkei 225. This flat industrial result, along with the January 2026 inflation print of just 1.7%, supports our view that the Bank of Japan will keep its ultra-loose policy. The gap with other central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, is likely to remain. That backdrop still points to a weaker yen, so long USD/JPY positions remain attractive. Given this outlook, selling out-of-the-money Nikkei 225 call options could be a sensible way to generate income if the market stays range-bound. We saw a similar plateau in mid-2024, which was followed by consolidation in stocks and a weaker currency. Current data looks more like a repeat of that setup than the start of a fresh breakout. Implied volatility may stay low as markets absorb steady but unexciting data. That could make it cheaper to buy longer-term protective puts on export-heavy industrial stocks. January 2026 export data already showed an unexpected slowdown in shipments to China and Europe, which makes hedging more relevant. In the coming weeks, we will look for confirmation in the Tankan business sentiment survey. For now, strategies that benefit from a sideways equity market and a weaker yen make sense. We should avoid adding to long equity positions until new growth catalysts appear.

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