The Euro is expected to stabilize between 1.1655 and 1.1720, with ongoing upside risks
The Euro is expected to stay within the range of 1.1655 to 1.1720. While there is potential for growth in the long run, breaking above 1.1805 seems unlikely for now, according to UOB Group’s FX analysts.
**24-Hour Outlook**
After a strong rise in the USD, we expect the Euro to consolidate. It may end the day at 1.1682, down 0.36%. A softer trend suggests it will fluctuate between 1.1655 and 1.1720 today. In the next week or three, the Euro might still rise, although recent highs may not be reached. The probability of exceeding 1.1805 is low unless it falls below the new support level of 1.1625.
**Market Insights**
The FXStreet Insights Team gathers observations from top experts to provide clear market notes. Their analysis offers a broad view of currency movements.
Given the expectation for the Euro to consolidate between 1.1655 and 1.1720, selling volatility could be a smart strategy for the short term. Using options strategies that benefit from time decay and stable prices, like an iron condor, could perform well in this scenario. The set range provides clear markers for short strikes.
However, we think the underlying risk is more towards growth, so remaining neutral might be too risky. A better strategy could involve selling out-of-the-money puts below the new 1.1625 support level or creating a bullish risk reversal. This aligns with the view that while a major breakout is unlikely, the floor for the currency pair has moved up.
**Supporting Economic Data**
Recent economic data supports this market view. The European Central Bank kept rates steady in its last meetings last year as Eurozone inflation dropped to 2.4% by November. This lack of a strong push from the ECB is likely limiting the Euro’s short-term growth potential.
At the same time, the US economy remains strong, adding 210,000 jobs in December 2025—more than expected. This strength provides a solid foundation for the dollar, explaining why the Euro struggles to convincingly break above the 1.1770 level we saw recently.
A similar price compression occurred during the summer of 2025 before the pair moved higher in fall. Currently, implied volatility on one-month EUR/USD options is below 6%, showing the market’s expectation of continued range-bound trading. Therefore, selling premium seems more appealing than buying it, as long as risks are managed against a sudden breakout.
Improved mood arises from lower EU-US tensions, with focus shifting to US data
Market sentiment improved mid-week as tensions eased between the US and the EU. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is about to update the US’s third-quarter GDP and release PCE Price Index figures for two months. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data is also in focus. On Wednesday, positive market trends emerged, bolstered by tariff agreements with European nations, causing Wall Street indices to rise by over 1%.
The US Dollar (USD) fell against main currencies, especially the New Zealand Dollar. In contrast, the Australian Dollar (AUD) benefited from a reduction in the Unemployment Rate to 4.1% in December, leading to a 0.7% increase in AUD/USD, reaching levels not seen since October 2024. Meanwhile, EUR/USD stayed under 1.1700, and GBP/USD remained above 1.3400.
Inflation And Its Impact On Currencies
Inflation affects currencies. High inflation can strengthen currency values as interest rates rise to control inflation. For Gold, higher interest rates decrease its appeal compared to interest-earning assets. However, lower rates make Gold more attractive. These inflation trends influence foreign exchange and gold prices, affecting global capital flows. Looking back to this time in 2025, the market reacted positively to easing US-EU trade tensions. Today, the focus has shifted from trade news to central bank policies. Interest rate differences are now more important than tariff discussions. In January 2025, traders were keenly watching key US data like the PCE Price Index. Now, the emphasis is sharper, as core inflation remains at 2.8%, above the Fed’s target. With initial jobless claims steady around 210,000, it indicates a tight labor market that prevents rate cuts, supporting dollar strength.Currency And Gold Market Trends
In January 2025, AUD/USD surged past 0.6800 after a strong jobs report showed unemployment at 4.1%. However, that rally was brief, and now Australian unemployment is rising towards 4.5%. This change suggests options traders might consider buying puts on the AUD/USD, as positive economic conditions from a year ago have diminished. A year ago, EUR/USD was consolidating below 1.1700, but economic differences with the US have pushed it lower. The European Central Bank is talking about rate cuts to stimulate a sluggish economy, contrasting sharply with the Federal Reserve’s position. We see a similar situation with GBP/USD, indicating that any rises in these pairs might be a good time to take new short positions. Gold reached an impressive high of nearly $4,890 last year, but its performance since has been disappointing. With the Fed adopting a ‘higher for longer’ approach to interest rates to combat stubborn inflation, the cost of holding non-yielding gold has risen significantly. Hence, we expect continued pressure on XAU/USD, making short positions or selling call options a smart strategy in the weeks ahead. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.WTI oil prices stay stable above $60.50 amid easing geopolitical tensions and oversupply concerns
WTI is stable at about $60.60 in early European trading. This comes after President Trump decided against imposing tariffs on European countries, which has reduced geopolitical tensions.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is cautious about the oil market, predicting that supply will exceed demand. Additionally, US crude inventories are reported to have risen by 3 million barrels last week, which further impacts supply levels.
Production Disruptions in Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan’s oil production has faced temporary interruptions due to two recent fires. Tengizchevroil, which is operated by Chevron, has stopped operations at the Tengiz and Korolev oilfields because of these incidents. WTI Oil is a high-quality crude from the United States and serves as a global market benchmark. Its price is influenced by supply, demand, geopolitical events, and the US Dollar since oil is primarily traded in this currency. Weekly reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) significantly affect WTI prices. These reports track inventory changes; decreasing stocks suggest rising demand, while increasing stocks indicate higher supply. OPEC’s production decisions also greatly influence price movements. Looking back to 2025, WTI prices were stable around $60.60 per barrel. The market was influenced by reduced geopolitical tensions, like the brief dispute over Greenland, alongside major supply concerns from the IEA. This created a sideways market with little drive to push prices higher.Market Dynamics in 2025
Today’s situation is different: prices are much higher, recently reaching $78.20. The oversupply fears from last year didn’t fully materialize, thanks to unexpectedly strong demand recovery in Asia and OPEC+ maintaining strict production quotas. This change has shifted the market from being range-bound to a more defined uptrend. The supply overhang that kept prices low has significantly eased, supported by the latest inventory reports. The most recent EIA report showed a surprising reduction of 2.1 million barrels in inventory, a sharp contrast to the 3-million-barrel increase we saw a year ago. With rising prices and renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, we can expect increased market volatility in the upcoming weeks. Traders might want to consider options strategies that benefit from price fluctuations, like long straddles, instead of just betting on price direction. The muted reactions to minor political news in 2025 have shifted to sharp responses to any signs of supply disruption. It’s also wise to watch for opportunities in calendar spreads. The market structure has tightened, transitioning from concerns about an oversupply last year to worries about a tight market. This could mean front-month contracts may trade at a higher premium than those for later dates, suggesting that positioning for a steepening backwardation could be a profitable strategy. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Australian Dollar rises as US Dollar stays stable ahead of economic data
The Australian Dollar has gained strength thanks to better employment data and expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). In December, Australia added 65.2K jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar has remained steady after President Trump decided not to impose tariffs on European countries. The USD is trading at an index level of around 98.80, as traders await GDP and PCE data.
China’s Economic Influence
The People’s Bank of China has kept its Loan Prime Rates unchanged, holding the one-year rate at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50%. Changes in China’s economy can impact the Australian Dollar due to the strong trade links between the two nations. In December, China’s industrial production grew 5.2% compared to last year, while retail sales saw a slight increase of 0.9% year-over-year. In Australia, the TD-MI Inflation Gauge reported a rise to 3.5% YoY in December, up from 3.2%. The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6790, testing resistance at 0.6800. The Australian Dollar has improved against major currencies, particularly the Japanese Yen. Factors affecting the Australian Dollar include the RBA’s interest rate decisions, iron ore prices, and trade balances. The Australian Dollar is gaining strength due to strong domestic economic signals. The strong employment report from December 2025, which added 65.2K jobs, reinforces the belief that the RBA will stay hawkish. This means significant rate cuts are unlikely in the near future.Monetary Policy and Inflation
At the end of 2025, inflation remained high, with the quarterly CPI at 4.1%, well above the RBA’s target. The RBA has kept the cash rate steady at 4.35% for several meetings, showing its commitment to reducing inflation to the 2-3% range. We can expect monetary policy to continue supporting the currency for now. On the US side, the Federal Reserve seems to be in a wait-and-see position until at least mid-year. The latest core PCE inflation data showed a slowdown to 2.9% year-over-year, which is promising for the Fed, but still not at their 2% target. This leads to a delay in expectations for the first rate cut, likely pushing it to the June or July Federal Open Market Committee meetings. The situation in China is mixed, which adds caution for the AUD. While industrial production remains strong, the weak retail sales in December suggest domestic demand is softening. Additionally, iron ore prices have recently dropped below $130 per tonne after a strong period, which could pose challenges for the Aussie Dollar. With the AUD/USD pair nearing the key psychological resistance at 0.6800 and RSI approaching overbought levels, taking an outright long position carries risks. Traders might consider buying call options to capture potential gains while limiting downside risk. A bull call spread could also be a good strategy to lower initial costs while targeting a more measured move toward the 0.6900 level. As important US GDP and PCE inflation data approaches, we can expect potential rises in volatility. This environment may be ideal for strategies like a long straddle, which could profit from significant price movements in either direction. This strategy allows traders to benefit from market reactions to the new data, regardless of the outcome. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The US dollar strengthens while the Indian rupee hovers near its record low
The Indian Rupee (INR) struggled against the US Dollar (USD) in early trading on Thursday, staying just below its record high of 92.00 from Wednesday. This drop is mainly due to foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who have sold INR 34,041.21 crore during 13 out of the first 14 trading days in January.
In India, everyone is waiting for the HSBC Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for January, which will be released on Friday. This data is important as it will give insights into economic demand before the FY 2026-2027 budget announcement on February 1.
US Dollar Recovery
The US Dollar is recovering, supported by decreasing tensions between the US and EU, which helped the USD/INR rate go up. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains around 98.80 after President Trump decided to negotiate rather than use force regarding the purchase of Greenland. The US has also placed a 10% tariff on several EU countries, raising fears of a trade war and reducing demand for riskier assets. The USD/INR exchange rate is at approximately 91.81, with the 20-day EMA indicating strength in the trend, even though the RSI shows overbought conditions at 73.28. Investors are also looking forward to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices Index (PCE) data, which is a key inflation metric for the Federal Reserve that could influence monetary policy. The US dollar is expected to remain strong against the Indian rupee in the near future. Predictions suggest the USD/INR pair could reach its all-time high near 92.00, driven by a strong dollar and a weak rupee. This situation makes it sensible to prepare for further weakening of the rupee in the coming weeks.FII Impact
The continuous selling by Foreign Institutional Investors is a major factor in the rupee’s decline, a trend seen in previous years as well. An outflow of over Rs. 34,000 crore this month alone reflects the heavy selling in January during both 2023 and 2024. This persistent selling pressure, linked to trade uncertainties, is likely to continue unless there is a significant positive shift. As geopolitical tensions between the US and EU ease, the US dollar is gaining strength. The US Dollar Index holding steady near 98.80 is supporting the upward movement of the USD/INR pair. This renewed trust in the dollar is making it a favored choice for global traders. Since the market appears to be overbought, it’s wise to avoid aggressive buying at these high levels. Instead, watching for a dip toward the 90.72 support level might present a better opportunity to enter a long position. Derivative traders could think about buying call options or setting up bull call spreads to benefit from further increases while minimizing risks. We should also monitor two significant upcoming events that might change this trend. Friday’s PMI data will provide crucial insights into India’s economic activity for 2026, following strong PMI readings above 56.0 from late 2025. Additionally, the Union Budget announcement on February 1 could greatly influence investor sentiment. Another strategy to exploit the current trend might include selling out-of-the-money put options with strike prices safely below the 90.72 support level. However, traders must stay alert for a potential reversal if the upcoming Indian economic data is unexpectedly strong or if the budget introduces favorable policies. While the upcoming US PCE inflation data is acknowledged, its focus on late 2025 figures will likely have a limited impact on current market decisions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.GBP/JPY climbs to around 213.10 ahead of Bank of Japan’s policy announcement
The GBP/JPY pair has risen to about 213.10, gaining 0.22% as the Yen struggles. This movement comes before the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy announcement, which is drawing attention from financial markets.
The Japanese Yen has been weak, particularly against the Australian Dollar. Many believe the BoJ will keep the interest rate at 0.75%, but there may be room for increases later this year.
Japanese Political and Economic Developments
Japan’s Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, plans to dissolve the lower house of parliament on January 23. This snap election aims to gain more seats to support this year’s fiscal budget. Japan is also considering removing the consumption tax to boost household spending, which could affect inflation. The Pound is trading cautiously due to worries about rising inflation in the UK. The Consumer Price Index jumped to 3.4% year-on-year in December, exceeding the expected 3.3%. Looking ahead, the UK Retail Sales data for December and PMI data scheduled for Friday will be closely watched. This information will be vital for predicting market direction and future economic policies. The GBP/JPY is pushing towards 213.00, a level not seen in many years, mainly because of the weak yen. The immediate focus is on tomorrow’s Bank of Japan policy meeting, which may coincide with a snap election announcement, adding uncertainty for the Yen.Potential Volatility and Market Strategies
The political climate in Japan is a key source of volatility, especially with the proposal to cut the consumption tax to stimulate growth. The government’s push comes after a modest GDP growth of only 0.4% in the third quarter of 2025. While this fiscal stimulus could be inflationary, it puts the Bank of Japan in a challenging position, raising the chances of a sharp market reaction. On the other hand, the strength of the Pound Sterling is backed by recent data. The inflation rate for December 2025 of 3.4% reinforces our belief that the Bank of England will delay rate cuts, which contrasts with the aggressive cuts anticipated in 2024. With the risks from Japan tomorrow, the one-week implied volatility for GBP/JPY options has surged over 15%, reaching its highest level since the third quarter of 2025. Traders may want to use strategies that benefit from significant price changes, like long straddles, instead of taking a simple directional bet. This approach can help protect against unexpected announcements from the government or the central bank. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.GBP/USD rises to about 1.3435 in the early European session due to UK inflation increase
The GBP/USD pair improved to about 1.3435 in the early European session, mainly due to UK inflation rising more than expected in December. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed to 3.4% year-over-year, up from 3.2% in November.
Trading moods are mixed, with the GBP/USD pair holding steady above 1.3400 during the Asian session. Investors are now looking at upcoming US economic data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index and the Q3 GDP growth report.
Presidential Comments Impact
The GBP/USD briefly dipped after US President Donald Trump made comments about Greenland. His remarks eased market tensions by avoiding threats of tariffs against Denmark. Other market factors include changes in indices and trade policies. Articles highlighted a thawing in US-EU relations and how strong job data is affecting currencies like the AUD. Talks about trade rules, including NATO tariffs, are still influencing trader opinions. A year ago, in January 2025, the Pound had strengthened due to unexpectedly high UK inflation. The CPI had risen to 3.4%, pushing GBP/USD towards 1.3435, as traders anticipated an active response from the Bank of England. This surprise created a good buying opportunity for those betting on a stronger Sterling. Fast forward to January 22, 2026, and things have changed significantly. The latest data from the Office for National Statistics indicates that UK CPI has decreased to 2.1% for December 2025, closer to the Bank of England’s 2% target. This cuts down the likelihood of sudden interest rate hikes and suggests we won’t see the same upward momentum as last year. On the US side, the economy shows steady but slower growth, with the Q4 2025 GDP estimated at 1.9%. The Federal Reserve is taking a neutral stance, pausing the rate hikes that were common in 2025. This is different from the uncertainty traders felt a year ago while waiting for crucial US data.Impact on Derivative Trading Strategies
For those trading derivatives, this blend of steady inflation and clearer central bank policies points to lower implied volatility in the coming weeks. Unlike last year, when purchasing call options on GBP/USD made sense due to inflation surprises, current conditions favor range-bound strategies. Selling strangles or straddles, with strike prices outside the recent 1.2650-1.2800 range, could be a wise strategy to earn premiums. Currently, the pair trades around 1.2720, a full 700 pips lower than in January 2025. That previous 1.3400 level is now a notable long-term resistance rather than a stable zone. Thus, building trades that profit while the pair stays well below those highs seems smart. Keep an eye on the upcoming Bank of England meeting minutes and the US Non-Farm Payrolls report in early February. These events will be key tests for the market’s current low-volatility expectations. Any unexpected changes could quickly lead to new opportunities for directional trades. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Gold prices decrease today in Saudi Arabia, according to market data
Gold prices in Saudi Arabia fell on Thursday. The price per gram decreased to 578.55 Saudi Riyals (SAR) from 581.94 SAR on Wednesday. The price for one tola of gold dropped to 6,748.10 SAR from 6,787.61 SAR the day before.
According to FXStreet data, a Troy Ounce of gold is now worth 17,994.52 SAR. Ten grams of gold are priced at 5,785.51 SAR. FXStreet calculates these prices by converting international rates (USD/SAR) to local currency and units. These rates are updated daily, although they may differ slightly from local prices.
The Role of Gold
Gold has been valued for centuries as both currency and a safe investment. It acts as a safeguard against inflation and currency decline. Central banks are among the major holders of gold, having bought 1,136 tonnes in 2022—the highest annual purchase since records began. Countries like China, India, and Turkey are increasing their gold reserves. Gold prices usually move in the opposite direction of the US Dollar and US Treasuries. Economic instability or falling interest rates often leads to rising gold prices, while a strong US Dollar can keep them lower. Geopolitical tensions and fears of a recession can also affect gold prices. Currently, gold prices are experiencing a slight dip, but this should not overshadow the larger trends. The value of gold fluctuates less because of daily changes and more due to its connection with the US Dollar and interest rates. As a non-yielding asset, gold’s direction is influenced by key central bank policies. In 2025, we saw the Federal Reserve keep interest rates steady to manage inflation, which helped maintain a strong dollar. Now, with US inflation falling to 2.8% in late 2025, markets are anticipating possible rate cuts later this year. This has led to a softer US Dollar Index (DXY), currently around 101.5—a situation that usually supports gold prices.Central Bank Strategy
Demand from central banks also plays a crucial role in stabilizing gold prices. After record purchases in the early 2020s, central banks continued to buy gold, adding over 800 tonnes to their reserves in 2025, according to World Gold Council data. This steady buying from emerging economies indicates a move to diversify away from the dollar and provides strong support for gold. The combination of a potentially weaker dollar and ongoing central bank demand makes a positive case for gold. Derivative traders might find this an excellent time to explore call options to benefit from potential price increases with limited risk. The implied volatility in options suggests that the market expects price changes in the coming months. With ongoing worries about a global economic slowdown after 2024-2025’s aggressive rate hikes, gold’s safe-haven status is particularly important. Traders are increasingly using gold futures to protect their equity portfolios against potential downturns. This reverse correlation has been especially reliable in past market cycles. However, we need to pay attention to upcoming economic data, especially the next US jobs report. A surprisingly strong report could delay expected rate cuts and lead to a short-term drop in gold prices. This suggests that strategies like bull call spreads could be wise, as they profit from price increases while minimizing losses if the market reverses unexpectedly. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.VT Markets Publishes 2026 Outlook Report Highlighting Opportunities Amid Steady Growth
Sydney, Australia, 22 January — VT Markets today announced the release of its 2026 Global Market Outlook, titled “Steady Growth, Balanced Inflation: Navigating a Regime of Structural Opportunity.” The report delivers a forward-looking, multi-asset assessment of the trends and opportunities expected to shape global markets in 2026, drawing on in-depth analysis across equities, foreign exchange, crypto assets, and commodities.
As global growth steadies and inflation pressures continue to normalize, markets are entering a new phase marked by structural adjustment and more balanced risk conditions. Developed by VT Markets’ analyst team, the report examines how these shifts may influence asset allocation, sector leadership, and trading strategy, enabling market participants to move beyond short-term volatility and focus on longer-term positioning.
Key Highlights from the 2026 Global Market Outlook
2026 Equities Outlook
Authored by Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead, the equities outlook assesses global and U.S. equity markets, covering U.S. economic performance, key drivers, sector opportunities and risks, as well as index technicals and scenario-based outlooks. The analysis highlights the importance of selectivity as market leadership broadens.
2026 Forex Outlook
Written by Justin Khoo, Senior Market Analyst, the FX outlook examines the global macro and policy backdrop shaping currency markets, outlining key drivers, potential scenarios, and practical trader takeaways, with central bank divergence and capital flows as core themes.
2026 Emerging and alternative assets
Analyzed by Eduardo Ramos, Senior Market Analyst, this section evaluates developments across emerging and alternative asset classes through the lens of institutional engagement, capital allocation trends, and market structure evolution.
2026 Commodities Outlook
Written by Nayel Al-Jawabra, Senior Market Analyst, the commodities outlook explores a “new commodity regime,” focusing on structural demand drivers, strategic supply dynamics, and portfolio implications.
The report also includes a special China-focused edition, authored by Ray Yang, Market Analyst, providing targeted insight into China’s economic performance, policy direction, structural challenges, and investment opportunities.
Rather than short-term forecasts, the VT Markets 2026 Global Market Outlook emphasizes scenario analysis, risk awareness, and strategic preparedness across asset classes and regions.
The 2026 Global Market Outlook: Steady Growth, Balanced Inflation: Navigating a Regime of Structural Opportunity is now available for download via link here.
Gold prices decline today in the Philippines, according to external data.
Gold prices in the Philippines fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet. The price per gram dropped to 9,132.23 PHP from 9,187.19 PHP the day before.
The price per tola also decreased, settling at 106,517.80 PHP, down from 107,157.60 PHP. This information reflects international prices converted into local currency, updated daily based on market rates.
