AUD/USD fell about 0.5% on Thursday. Even so, it stayed near multi-year highs after pushing above 0.7140, the highest level since February 2023. The drop followed comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that it could raise rates again if inflation stays high. Earlier this month, the RBA raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%. Markets now price a 74% chance of another hike in May. They also price in 38 basis points of additional tightening by year-end. Meanwhile, consumer inflation expectations rose to 5% in February, the highest since mid-2025.

Key Macro Drivers

AUD gains were capped by weak Chinese CPI data and ongoing producer price deflation. This points to softer demand and could weigh on Australian exports. In the US, January Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 130K versus 70K expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. Focus now shifts to the delayed US January CPI report. Forecasts are 0.29% month-on-month for headline CPI and 0.39% for core CPI. On the technical side, AUD/USD was near 0.7118 after a 0.7148 high. Support sits around 0.7100 and 0.6932, while resistance is at 0.7148, then 0.7200 and 0.7250. With the RBA staying firm on inflation, we still see the path of least resistance for AUD/USD as higher. The policy split remains clear: the US Federal Reserve held rates steady through the second half of 2025, while the RBA continued tightening. This difference supports a bullish view for the Aussie in the weeks ahead. Given the strong uptrend, buying call options is a simple way to express this view. It offers defined risk with meaningful upside. One approach is to target strikes above the key 0.7150 resistance level, such as 0.7200, with March or April expiries to give the trend time to extend. Recent data also shows speculative net-long positions rising for weeks, which suggests the trade aligns with current market momentum.

Risk And Trade Setup

That said, daily RSI is nearing overbought levels. At the same time, worries about Chinese demand are pressuring iron ore prices, which have eased to about $135 per tonne. This raises the risk of a pullback. A practical approach is to treat dips toward the 0.7100 or 0.7050 support areas as chances to start long exposure. Selling cash-secured puts or using bull put spreads at those lower levels can help generate premium while waiting for a better entry. The key near-term event is today’s US CPI release, which is likely to set the tone into next week. A softer inflation print would likely weaken the US dollar and could be the trigger that pushes AUD/USD cleanly above 0.7150. A hotter CPI number, on the other hand, could create the pullback needed to add bullish positions at better prices. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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New Zealand Business NZ’s Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) fell to 55.2 in January, down from 56.1 the month before. A PMI reading above 50 means manufacturing is growing. A reading below 50 means it is shrinking.

Manufacturing Growth Slows

Business NZ’s PMI eased to 55.2 in January from 56.1. It is still clearly above 50, so the sector is still expanding. However, this is the second month in a row that growth has slowed. That downward trend is worth watching over the next few weeks. This softer reading also makes the outlook harder for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Inflation is still the main problem. It ended 2025 at 4.5%, which is well above the RBNZ’s target band. With prices still rising too fast, the central bank is unlikely to start easing policy soon. For New Zealand dollar traders, this can limit NZD gains. A slowing economy paired with a hawkish central bank can also raise volatility. That can make option strategies such as straddles more attractive around the next RBNZ decision. If Australian data stays stronger, the odds increase that NZD could weaken versus AUD. In rate markets, the data suggests that expectations for near-term cuts may be too early. The labour market is still tight, with unemployment around 4.0%. That gives the RBNZ room to keep the Official Cash Rate higher for longer. This backdrop may support trades that expect short-term rates to stay elevated rather than fall quickly.

Implications For Markets

Slower manufacturing momentum is a headwind for the NZX 50, especially for manufacturers and exporters. The weaker PMI could lead analysts to cut earnings forecasts for the first half of 2026. Buying put options on the index is one way to position for a possible pullback from recent highs. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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UOB research says Thailand’s ability to attract the next wave of foreign direct investment depends more on removing structural barriers than on offering tax breaks. It highlights clean, reliable power, faster permits, and better infrastructure delivery as main priorities. The note says Thailand needs clean and dependable electricity, especially for data centres and electronics. It also calls for quicker and more predictable steps for permits, land access, and infrastructure construction. UOB adds that local skills and supply chain depth are important so local firms can take on and support new projects. It says stronger local capability would make it easier to land larger, more complex investments. The research lists outside risks, including weak global demand and geopolitical shocks. It says FDI flows are now very sensitive to global policy and growth shocks because of rising trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical splits. It also notes tougher regional competition. ASEAN peers are offering more aggressive and targeted incentive packages, such as for semiconductors and digital projects. This raises the bar for Thailand to stand out through execution, skills, and the broader business ecosystem. There is growing caution about Thailand’s ability to attract foreign direct investment, as structural problems are becoming clearer. Data for January 2026 showed FDI applications fell 15% year on year. That is a worrying signal versus ASEAN peers. It suggests markets may start pricing in weaker long-term growth, which could create openings for bearish trades. A major US hyperscale data centre in Chonburi recently announced a six-month delay, citing power grid instability. This is a major warning sign. It supports long-running concerns from 2025 about clean and reliable energy. For derivatives traders, this could mean more downside risk in technology and utilities, which could be expressed with targeted put options. Uncertainty around capital flows is also a headwind for the Thai Baht. The currency has struggled to break key resistance levels versus the US dollar in early 2026. With Malaysia securing a major semiconductor fab using aggressive incentives, traders may prefer short THB against regional currencies like the Malaysian Ringgit. We expect this relative weakness to continue in the weeks ahead. Volatility in the SET50 Index options market may rise around government announcements on infrastructure projects. As seen during the high-speed rail delays in 2025, signs of slow permit processing can become a strong negative catalyst. Traders should be ready for sharp index drops on such news, which can make long-volatility strategies appealing. US trade-policy uncertainty has increased again, and Thailand’s export-focused economy is exposed. A negative global demand shock would likely worsen the impact of Thailand’s domestic structural issues. Using options to hedge against a broader market decline could help manage these external risks.

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South Korea’s import prices fell 1.2% year on year in January. This follows a 0.3% rise in the prior period. The data marks a move from annual growth to an annual decline. It shows that imported goods were cheaper on average than a year earlier. An import-price drop to -1.2% year over year is a clear deflationary signal. The shift from positive growth suggests external price pressures are not only easing, but turning negative. We think this raises the chance that the Bank of Korea will take a more dovish tone and may signal rate cuts sooner than the market expects. This view puts pressure on the Korean won. Lower expected interest rates reduce the currency’s appeal. We saw a similar pattern in 2025, when worries about weaker global trade pushed the won past 1,350 per dollar. Traders may want to consider USD/KRW call options to position for possible won weakness. For equities, the message is mixed but slightly negative for the KOSPI 200. Cheaper imported inputs can support margins. However, this drop likely reflects weaker global demand, also seen in falling commodity prices like crude oil, which slipped below $80 a barrel in January 2026. That points to softer earnings ahead for major Korean exporters, so KOSPI 200 put options could be a sensible hedge. The clearest trade may be in rates. This data challenges the Bank of Korea’s still-restrictive stance. If markets price in easier policy, bond yields should fall and bond prices should rise. We recommend buying Korean Treasury Bond (KTB) futures to benefit from a potential rally in government bonds.

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South Korea’s export prices rose 7.8% year on year in January, up from 5.5% in the prior period. The data shows export prices grew faster than before. The move from 5.5% to 7.8% is an increase of 2.3 percentage points.

Export Prices Surge Signals Stronger Demand

South Korea’s export price growth rose to 7.8% year over year. This is a bullish signal worth noting. The jump from 5.5% suggests stronger global demand and better pricing power than the market expected. It also supports the view that the positive trends seen through 2025 are continuing and may be accelerating. For FX desks, this supports a stronger Korean won. Higher export revenues can increase demand for KRW and could push USD/KRW below the 1,350 support level. Consider KRW call options or short USD/KRW futures, with a potential move toward 1,320 in the coming weeks. For equities, this is supportive—especially for technology and automotive names. Higher export prices can lift profit margins for companies in the KOSPI index. Consider adding to long positions in KOSPI 200 futures and reviewing call options on major semiconductor firms. Much of the strength appears tied to the semiconductor upcycle, which remains global. Forecasts from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) group point to 15% market growth in 2026, suggesting this may be more than a short-term spike. The pricing power in this report fits with the wider industry recovery that has been building since last year. Bond markets also deserve attention. Higher export prices can be an inflation signal. The Bank of Korea, which has kept its policy rate at 3.5%, may use this as a reason to delay rate cuts. That could push Korean government bond yields higher, making short bond futures a useful hedge.

External Data Reinforces Export Momentum

Other data also supports the export story. China’s latest manufacturing PMI came in at 50.5, its third straight month above 50. This points to steady demand for the industrial components South Korea supplies. It adds support to the strength shown in the export price data. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/CHF fell on Thursday as the Swiss Franc strengthened after a slightly weaker US jobless claims report. The pair traded near 0.7700, down 0.22%. The US Dollar also failed to extend gains after Wednesday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. The technical picture still leans bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) supports ongoing downside momentum. Price previously dropped to around 0.7600 and bounced toward 0.7800, but then set a lower high.

Technical Levels And Near Term Bias

After topping out, USD/CHF slid to 0.7627 and then turned higher. Over the last three sessions, it has traded in a tight range between 0.7600 and 0.7700. A break below 0.7600 would put 0.7550 in focus, followed by 0.7500. If the pair moves above 0.7700, the next resistance is the 20-day Simple Moving Average near 0.7780. A break above 0.7780 would bring 0.7800 into view, then 0.7861, and then 0.7900. By late 2025, USD/CHF was in a clear downtrend, driven by softer US data. Many expected a break below 0.7600, and momentum indicators pointed lower. That bearish tone continued into the start of the new year. But the first weeks of 2026 changed the story. January US CPI stayed hot at 3.2%, which surprised markets. The latest non-farm payrolls also showed strong hiring, with 250,000 jobs added. This mix suggests the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts, widening the policy gap with the Swiss National Bank.

Options Strategies For Continued Upside

As a result, USD/CHF has turned higher and broken above earlier resistance levels such as 0.7780 and 0.7861. The current price action near 0.8050 suggests the bearish momentum from late last year has faded. It also shows how quickly shifting fundamentals can override a technical setup. With USD strength returning, traders may look at strategies that benefit if the pair keeps moving up in the weeks ahead. One approach is selling cash-secured puts near former resistance, such as 0.7900, to collect premium. That level may now act as support on pullbacks. For a more direct bullish trade with limited risk, buying call options that expire in March or April may be appealing. Implied volatility has also risen from about 6% in December 2025 to around 8.5% more recently, which signals the market expects bigger swings. A bull call spread can help reduce the cost of higher premiums while still keeping upside exposure. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Indonesia’s GDP grew 5.4% year on year in Q4 2025, the fastest pace since 2022. Growth for the full year 2025 was 5.1%, helped by strong domestic demand and rising household spending. The GDP growth forecast for 2026 stays at 5.2%. Key drivers are a stronger fiscal boost and higher spending on government priorities. Priority investment areas include mineral processing, energy, food, and military spending. Monetary policy is still supportive, inflation remains under control, and the labour market is improving slowly. These factors should keep household consumption steady. Growth may be uneven. Private investment could stay cautious because of policy uncertainty. Exports are also expected to slow as global demand weakens and the government plans to cut output of key minerals to help balance world supply and demand. A weaker Indonesian rupiah (IDR) could make non-commodity exports more competitive. The article also notes it was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Based on the strong 5.4% year-on-year GDP growth in Q4 2025, domestic-focused assets have solid momentum. This was the fastest growth rate since 2022 and was mainly driven by household consumption. Looking into 2026, the 5.2% growth forecast suggests this domestic trend should continue. We should also plan for further weakness in the rupiah. Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark rate at 6.00% at its January 2026 meeting to support growth. With inflation at 2.7% last month, policy remains loose. Combined with a strong US dollar, this backdrop supports options strategies that benefit if USD/IDR moves above 15,850. Equities require a more selective approach. Softer exports and cautious private investment may limit gains in the broader Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), which has traded in a narrow range so far this year. We see potential in overweighting sectors that could benefit from government spending, such as construction, military suppliers, and food producers, while underweighting export-focused manufacturers. In commodities, the signal is clearer, especially for industrial metals. If the government cuts production of key minerals like nickel to tighten supply, prices may rise. With LME nickel already up 4% since the start of the year, call options on nickel futures offer a direct way to express this view. Policy uncertainty also points to higher volatility. That makes volatility strategies more attractive. For example, JCI straddles ahead of major fiscal announcements could profit from a large market move in either direction.

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Gold fell almost 2.7% on Thursday. It dropped to $4,945 from an intraday high of $5,100 and briefly moved below $4,900. The fall came even though US yields declined, and it followed strong US jobs data. US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 7 were 227K versus 222K expected. The 4-week average was 219.5K. January Nonfarm Payrolls showed 130K jobs added versus 70K estimated, and the unemployment rate slipped from 4.4% to 4.3%.

Market Repricing After Strong Jobs Data

Swap pricing pointed to a “higher for longer” Federal Reserve view. Markets reduced expectations for a June cut and priced about 30 bps of easing for the July 29 meeting. The US 10-year yield fell nearly seven basis points to 4.106%, while the DXY rose 0.07% to 96.99. Reports also pointed to renewed nuclear talks between the US and Iran and a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Russia was also said to be considering a return to US dollar settlement. US CPI expectations for January were 2.5% YoY headline (down from 2.7%) and 2.5% core (down from 2.6%). Key technical levels included the 20-day SMA at $4,940, support near $4,800, and the 50-day SMA at $4,602. Resistance was seen in the $5,000 to $5,100 area. Central banks bought 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion in 2022. We are seeing a familiar pattern today, February 13, 2026. It looks like the sharp gold sell-off seen around this time in 2025. Last year, strong jobs data and easing geopolitical risks pushed gold down almost 3%, even as yields fell. Those same drivers are back, which suggests caution for traders still holding long positions. In January 2025, Nonfarm Payrolls came in far above forecasts. The latest January 2026 report was also stronger than expected, with 150,000 jobs added and unemployment down to 4.2%. As a result, traders are pulling back from May rate-cut bets and shifting expectations toward the third quarter. The market also remembers that the Fed kept rates steady longer than many expected through 2025.

Geopolitics Dollar And Near Term Gold Risks

Last year, hopes of progress with Iran and talk of Russia returning to dollar settlements reduced gold’s safe-haven appeal. Today, renewed diplomatic channels between Washington and Beijing are having a similar effect. They lower the geopolitical risk premium that built up over the past quarter. That drop in tension can cap bullion’s upside in the near term. In February 2025, a stronger dollar outweighed falling Treasury yields, which is unusual and negative for gold. We are seeing that again. Even with the 10-year yield easing to about 4.05%, the US Dollar Index is holding above 97.00. That is a major headwind for dollar-priced gold. When the dollar is strong, gold costs more for overseas buyers, which can reduce demand. Even so, gold still has important support from central banks, which have been steady buyers. Official data shows they added more than 1,000 tonnes in both 2023 and 2024. That continues the trend from 2022 and helps build a floor under prices during deeper pullbacks. This kind of institutional demand is stronger than it was a decade ago. For derivatives traders, this backdrop may favor put options or put spreads to hedge against a slide toward $4,800, a key psychological level that was tested last year. Selling covered calls against physical holdings may also generate income, since a quick rebound above $5,000 looks less likely until the market has clearer timing for the Fed’s first rate cut. Upcoming inflation data, including next week’s CPI report, will be important for the next move. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US Dollar stayed near 97 during Thursday’s US session after Wall Street slipped on AI-related worries. The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded around 96.90. It was slightly stronger, but markets were waiting for the US January CPI report on Friday. A Bloomberg report said Russia wants to return to US dollar settlement. It also mentioned possible cooperation in oil and natural gas, critical raw materials, and nuclear energy. Any shift would require the US to lift sanctions and restore Russia’s access to the US dollar system.

Us Labor Data In Focus

US initial jobless claims fell to 227K in the week ending February 7. This was higher than the 222K forecast, but lower than the prior week’s revised 232K, according to the US Department of Labor. GBP/USD traded near 1.3620 after the jobless claims report. EUR/USD was around 1.1860 ahead of the Eurozone flash GDP (Q4) release due Friday. USD/JPY traded near 152.80 and fell for a fourth straight day. The move followed Japan’s election result and renewed concerns about possible intervention. AUD/USD was around 0.7080 after hitting a three-year high earlier in the day. Gold traded near $4,913 after touching a three-day low. Friday’s calendar includes RBNZ inflation expectations (Q1), Swiss January CPI, Eurozone flash GDP (Q4), and US January CPI. Weekend events include speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Saturday 14 and Sunday 15, along with Japan’s preliminary Q4 GDP on Sunday 15.

Perspective From Last Year

At this time last year, the US Dollar was also uncertain around the 97 level. Tech-sector nerves and geopolitical chatter were driving sentiment. The talk about Russia returning to the dollar system did not lead to anything concrete. Over time, attention shifted back to central bank policy. Now, with the Dollar Index holding above 104, many traders focus more on interest-rate differences than on short-lived headlines. Last year, markets were waiting for the January 2025 CPI report to judge the Fed’s next steps. Since then, inflation stayed stubborn through 2025. The latest January 2026 data shows headline CPI still elevated at 2.9%, which has kept the Fed from clearly signaling rate cuts. This backdrop favors “higher for longer” positioning, including strategies that can benefit from steady or rising rates, such as buying puts on interest rate futures. The AI fears in early 2025 triggered a market drop that later proved to be a strong long-term buying opportunity. New industry figures show continued momentum, with global AI investment in Q4 2025 alone topping $50 billion. That supports the case for long-dated call options on major tech indexes to capture potential upside. In February 2025, there was intense speculation about Japanese intervention when USD/JPY was near 152.80. Authorities did step in later that year, but the pair is now testing 158. This suggests that policy divergence remains the bigger driver. It is a high-tension setup where options can be used to target either a sudden intervention-led drop or a continued grind higher. Gold’s brief surge toward $4,900 per ounce last year marked a peak in market fear. Since then, it has settled into a $2,500–$2,600 range. Steady central bank buying has helped, with net global purchases rising by more than 800 tonnes in 2025. That support may make selling put options on gold attractive for income, while still allowing for protection if volatility returns. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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BNY data show a split in FX flows. Latin America has its strongest inflows in six months, while EMEA has its strongest selling in six months. The iFlow Carry index suggests that holdings in high-yield currencies are starting to decline, but the reasons differ by region. Low-yield APAC currencies and the euro appear tied to the broader reversal. Selling that is clearly linked to carry reduction is mainly concentrated in CEE and Africa. Even so, CEE and African currencies are still held at relatively high levels. Latin American currencies are described as better held than other emerging market currencies. Colombia is cited as having restarted its tightening cycle. COP is the strongest-performing currency in iFlow over the past month. The report notes that when valuations and holdings reach extreme levels, profit-taking becomes more likely. It also says fiscal dominance risk in CEE is very high, and that political developments are getting more attention. The report adds that CEE carry positions may be trimmed while volatility remains supportive. It also argues that CEE flows are easier to reduce than flows in other regions. We are seeing a clear split in emerging-market fund flows. Money is leaving EMEA at the fastest pace in six months. Most of that pressure is focused on currencies in Central and Eastern Europe and Africa, even though these positions are still widely held. In contrast, Latin American currencies are seeing their strongest inflows in half a year. Fiscal dominance risk is becoming a key concern in CEE, and markets are paying closer attention to politics. For example, Poland’s January 2026 inflation print remains above target at 4.8%, but the central bank still looks reluctant to tighten. That leaves long positions in currencies such as the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint looking vulnerable. This is very different from Latin America, where central banks appear more independent. Colombia resumed its tightening cycle in 2025, which supported the COP. More recently, Mexico’s nearshoring boom helped lift foreign direct investment by 15% in Q4 2025, supporting the MXN. With FX volatility still low, and the VIX near 14, this is a good time to reduce exposure to CEE carry trades. Derivatives traders could consider buying EUR puts on HUF or PLN to hedge or position for a decline. Another option is to structure trades that favor stronger LatAm currencies, such as going long MXN versus PLN. We saw a similar, though shorter, sell-off in late 2025 when regional concerns emerged, which shows how fast sentiment can change. Given the heavy ownership in CEE FX, trimming these positions may be the easiest move. With holdings and valuations at extremes, the threshold for further profit-taking is low.

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